Published works

Published works

An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?

TitleAn uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2016
AuthorsMaier, H, Guillaume, JHA, van Delden, H, Riddell, G, Haasnoot, M, Kwakkel, JH
JournalEnvironmental Modelling & Software
Volume81
Start Page154
Pagination154-164
Date Published04/2016
Abstract

A highly uncertain future due to changes in climate, technology and socio-economics has led to the realisation that identification of “best-guess” future conditions might no longer be appropriate. Instead, multiple plausible futures need to be considered, which requires (i) uncertainties to be described with the aid of scenarios that represent coherent future pathways based on different sets of assumptions, (ii) system performance to be represented by metrics that measure insensitivity (i.e. robustness) to changes in future conditions, and (iii) adaptive strategies to be considered alongside their more commonly used static counterparts. However, while these factors have been considered in isolation previously, there has been a lack of discussion of the way they are connected. In order to address this shortcoming, this paper presents a multidisciplinary perspective on how the above factors fit together to facilitate the development of strategies that are best suited to dealing with a deeply uncertain future.

URLhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216300780
DOI10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014
Refereed DesignationRefereed
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