PUBLICATIONS
Published works
A comparison of the fire weather characteristics of the Melbourne dust storm (1983) and Black Saturday (2009): a high-resolution ACCESS case study
Title | A comparison of the fire weather characteristics of the Melbourne dust storm (1983) and Black Saturday (2009): a high-resolution ACCESS case study |
Publication Type | Journal Article |
Year of Publication | 2013 |
Authors | Fawcett, R, Wain, A, Thurston, W, Kepert, J, Tory, KJ |
Journal | 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation |
Start Page | 167 |
Pagination | 167-172 |
Date Published | 12/2013 |
Keywords | Ash Wednesday, Black Saturday, Fire weather, Melbourne’s dust storm, numerical weather prediction |
Abstract | We present the results of high-resolution simulations of the fire weather over Melbourne during its notorious dust storm on 8 February 1983. The simulations were performed using the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS), and involved a sequence of nested model runs starting with a global model run initialised with an ERA-Interim reanalysis initial condition. The ACCESS model is used at the Bureau of Meteorology for operational numerical weather prediction, but is used here in research mode at resolutions much finer than those currently used operationally. The day of the dust storm saw the passage of a significant cool change across Victoria, with many similarities in the simulations to that of Black Saturday (7 February 2009), against which we compare it. Wind changes such as these two can have a significant (and dangerous) impact on the behaviour of bushfires in southeast Australia, and their prediction forms an important component of fire weather prediction in this part of the country. While the wind change on 8 February 1983 was accompanied by some fire activity, that activity was much less than the major fire activity which accompanied the significant wind change eight days later on Ash Wednesday (16 February 1983). Why the dust storm wind change was not associated with severe fires, while those on Ash Wednesday and Black Saturday were, is a challenging question. Catastrophic fires are quite rare, whereas significant fire weather events that could potentially lead to catastrophic fires (if the non-meteorological prerequisites were to fall into place) are much more common and their study can lead to further understanding of the fire events. |
URL | http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013/A3/fawcett.pdf |
Published Works
Publication Type
Journal Article
Journal Article
Publication Year
Year of Publication 2013