Published works

Published works

Yebra, M. et al. The Australian Flammability Monitoring System. AFAC17 (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2017).
Non-Refereed

The Australian Flammability Monitoring System

TitleThe Australian Flammability Monitoring System
Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2017
AuthorsYebra, M, van Dijk, A, Cary, GJ, Quan, X, Rahman, J, Dodds, ZH, Rozas, P
Conference NameAFAC17
Date Published09/2017
PublisherBushfire and Natural Hazards CRC
Conference LocationSydney
Abstract

The Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS) is the first, continental-scale prototype web explorer providing spatial information on current Live Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) and landscape-scale fuel flammability derived from satellite observations. The satellite observations are converted into FMC using a radiative transfer modelling inversion approach. Evaluation of the FMC estimates using 408 observations at 35 locations around Australia shows similar accuracies (r2=0.60, RMSE=39%) across the vegetation classes studied (grassland, shrubland and forest) to those derived elsewhere globally. Flammability estimates are calculated using logistic regression models relating fire occurrence to FMC. Separate prediction models were developed for grassland, shrubland and forest, obtaining performance metrics (Area Under the Curve) of 0.70, 0.78 and 0.71, respectively (where skillful predictions range between 0.5 and1). A web-based data explorer will be available to fire and land management agencies and any other interested parties in all states and territories. The AFMS can support a range of fire management activities such as prescribed burning and pre-positioning of firefighting resources and can inform the future National Fire Danger Rating System.

Refereed DesignationNon-Refereed

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