PUBLICATIONS
Published works
Simulation optimisation for natural hazard risk management
Title | Simulation optimisation for natural hazard risk management |
Publication Type | Report |
Year of Publication | 2020 |
Authors | Newman, J, Dandy, G, Zecchin, A, van Delden, H, Newland, C, Maier, H, Riddell, G |
Document Number | 533 |
Date Published | 01/2020 |
Institution | Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC |
City | Melbourne |
Report Number | 533 |
Keywords | natural hazard, optimisation, risk management, simulation |
Abstract | In this report, we outline a decision-support framework for natural hazard management that combines the use of simulation and optimisation for exploring what risk reduction measures best achieve management priorities. This framework addressed several needs that practitioners have with regard to risk and adaptation assessment. First, it uses optimisation approaches to screen through and identify those management options that perform best across a number of decision criteria. This is important, as there are a very diverse range of management options which could be combined in an extremely large number of ways to make portfolios of management options and it is difficult to screen through all potential portfolios to shortlist a small number for further consideration. Second, it simulates the effectiveness of management options over long-term planning horizons. This is important, for management options may have long lead-in-times, and/or may have long lifetimes, are not easily/readily changed, and so need to be effective over a broad range of plausible future conditions, which likely include larger populations, increased economic development and climate change. Third, the framework emphasises holistic assessment, wherein the Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) simulates the effect of management options across a number of criteria, therefore allowing practitioners to explore the trade-offs between risk reduction with other community goals, including environmental, social and economic outcomes.
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