Published works

Modelling the dynamic propagation of wildfires remains a significant challenge. Pyroconvective interactions between the fire and the atmosphere, or between different parts of the fire itself, can produce distinctly non-steady modes of fire propagation that cannot be accounted for using current operational models.

While sophisticated three-dimensional models (e.g. computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models or coupled fire-atmosphere models) have been successfully applied to wildfires, their computational requirements render them impractical for operational usage.

Here we discuss a computationally efficient two-dimensional propagation model, which can accurately replicate dynamic features of fire spread that cannot be simulated using existing two-dimensional models. These features include the development of a wind-driven fire line into a parabolic shape, attraction between nearby fires and the observed closing behaviour of junction fires. The model is compared to experimental results with good agreement.
The model incorporates a simple sub-model to account for the inflow of air generated by a fire, which allows the model to run orders of magnitude faster than full physical models, while still capturing many of the essential features of dynamic fire propagation. We argue that such a model could lead to significant improvements in operational wildfire prediction.
In addition, we will highlight some recent insights in to how the geometry of a fire line and the flaming zone influences development of the pyroconvective plume above a fire. In particular, we present evidence that the geometry of the burning region can affect plume development in a way that is comparable to the effect of total energy release.