Physical modelling of large-scale junction fires

The fire seasons recorded in recent years in California, Australia, Portugal and other parts of the world have highlighted the impact of this natural risk on the functioning of ecosystems and human activities. Areas that are classified as at-risk are increasing due to exceptionally hot summers becoming more frequent. Some extreme fires are caused by dynamic fire behaviour, such as merging fires, that can result in fast increases in fire intensity and spread rate, and can defy suppression measures. To reduce this extreme risk and strengthen extreme fire resilience, a better understanding of the physics that governs the behaviour of such fires is the key.

The outcomes of this research will provide insight into threshold conditions (of certain parameters such as the temperature, air relative humidity, the slope, etc.) that result in eruptive fire by using a physics-based modelling approach. Such insight will equip forest fire managers and fire services with the knowledge of situational awareness who can undertake appropriate resources planning as well as warn firefighters of any potential danger. 

The outcomes may range from conceptual improvement in the physical understanding of extreme fire behaviour (especially coalescent fires) to the development of an operational model module to indicate a trigger for the eruptive fire behaviour. Another module can be developed for the rate of spread of junction fire and fire intensity. Most importantly, this research can be used to improve emergency management response.