Flash flooding case studies to improve predictions and the communication of uncertainty

This document presents the case study analysis completed as part of the Flash flooding case studies to improve predictions and the communication of uncertainty project. Case studies have been chosen as the primary method of inquiry, as they provide a method for analysis of a real-world event in its context. The application of the value chain framework as the organising approach encourages the review to look at the end-to-end service provided by the Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) and emergency management agencies. The chosen approach is multidisciplinary, focusing on how information, particularly uncertainty, is communicated through the warning value chain. This method has been used elsewhere to evaluate the performance of early warning systems (Golding et al. 2023; Neal and Titley 2024; Titley et al. 2024).