@article {bnh-5423, title = {Active fires: Early fire detection and mapping using HIMAWARI-8 Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {458}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project is a critical part of the BNH CRC{\textquoteright}s value to Geoscience Australia and the broader Australian government. The Sentinel Hotspots application is used by all levels of government, private sector, researchers and the public {\textendash} this system would not be trusted by those parties without sound validation. This project will continue to assist the Australian government in developing and validating the capability of the Himawari-8 data source to Sentinel Hotspots program. Further, the project will assist in the ongoing improvement of vital bushfire information acquired through state-of-the-art remote sensing technology as needed by fire and emergency management now and in the future.

}, keywords = {Fire, HIMAWARI-8, mapping}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Chermelle Engel} } @article {bnh-5494, title = {Analysis of damage surveys of houses and preliminary input of VAWs}, number = {477}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Significant financial loss in terms of cost of rebuilding or repair and loss of function of property (e.g. commercial activity, rental, relocation of residents, etc.), has been documented following recent severe tropical cyclones impacting the Australian coastal communities. These damage investigations estimate that the wind speeds in these events were less than the Australian building standard{\textquoteright}s design level wind speed for the regions impacted. Analysis of insurance claims data highlights issues with wind driven rain water damage. Additionally, investigations of the damaged buildings along with analysis of claims data reveals a high proportion of the losses are associated with contemporary construction as opposed to pre-current code buildings.\ 

Education and awareness of consequences of such failures (e.g. damage to property and risk to life) is required in all steps of the building process (regulation, design, construction, certification and maintenance) and by all parties (designer, builder, certifier, and owner).

}, keywords = {building risk, resilience, severe wind, VAWs}, author = {David Henderson and Daniel Smith and Korah Parackal and John Ginger} } @article {bnh-5620, title = {Analysis of design standards and applied loads on road structures under extreme events}, number = {480}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the fourth report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project B8, entitled {\textquoteleft}Enhancing the Resilience of Critical Road Infrastructure: bridges, culverts and flood-ways under natural hazards{\textquoteright}. The work presented here addresses milestone 3.2.2 {\textquotedblleft}Analysis of design standards completed{\textquotedblright} and 3.2.3 {\textquotedblleft}Draft report 4{\textendash} Loads applied on structures under extreme events (flood, earthquake, fire){\textquotedblright}, which are due on 30 December 2015. Thus, this draft report will be reviewed and refined through the input of the external stakeholders, in particular Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads (DTMR), VicRoads, RMS (NSW) and the Lockyer Valley Regional Council (LVRC).
The following draft report presents an analysis of relevant design codes in regards to bridges, culverts and flood-ways design considerations under natural hazards (earthquake, flood and bushfire). Although effort has been made to include major design codes, the main focus of the practice code analysis has been Australian codes, major American codes and European codes. Section 5 also discusses the strengthening methods for reinforced concrete members under natural hazards.

}, keywords = {applied loads, engineering, extreme weather, resilience, structure}, issn = {480}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @article {bnh-5481, title = {Assessing the ability of image based point clouds captured from a UAV to measure the terrain in the presence of canopy cover}, journal = {forests}, volume = {10}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

Point clouds captured from Unmanned Aerial Systems are increasingly relied upon to provide information describing the structure of forests. The quality of the information derived from these point clouds is dependent on a range of variables, including the type and structure of the forest, weather conditions and flying parameters. A key requirement to achieve accurate estimates of height based metrics describing forest structure is a source of ground information. This study explores the availability and reliability of ground surface points available within point clouds captured in six forests of different structure (canopy cover and height), using three image capture and processing strategies, consisting of nadir, oblique and composite nadir/oblique image networks. The ground information was extracted through manual segmentation of the point clouds as well as through the use of two commonly used ground filters, LAStools lasground and the Cloth Simulation Filter. The outcomes of these strategies were assessed against ground control captured with a Total Station. Results indicate that a small increase in the number of ground points captured (between 0 and 5\% of a 10 m radius plot) can be achieved through the use of a composite image network. In the case of manually identified ground points, this reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) error of the terrain model by between 1 and 11 cm, with greater reductions seen in plots with high canopy cover. The ground filters trialled were not able to exploit the extra information in the point clouds and inconsistent results in terrain RMSE were obtained across the various plots and imaging network configurations. The use of a composite network also provided greater penetration into the canopy, which is likely to improve the representation of mid-canopy elements.

}, keywords = {drones, Fire, forest measurement, image based point clouds, RPAS, structure from motion, UAS}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/f10030284}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/10/3/284}, author = {Luke Wallace and Chris Bellman and Bryan Hally and Jaime Hernandez and Simon Jones and Samuel Hillman} } @article {bnh-5616, title = {Australian householders{\textquoteright} psychological preparedness for potential natural hazard threats: An exploration of contributing factors}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Considerable attention has been given by researchers to householders{\textquoteright} material, or physical, preparedness for impact of a severe natural hazard. Somewhat less attention has been paid to psychological preparedness for such an event. This paper first reviews conceptual formulations of psychological preparedness for disasters, and self-report measures of the construct. Previous research findings about correlates of psychological preparedness are discussed. We report findings from a survey of 1,253 Australian households. Scores on two psychological preparedness subscales (Knowledge and management, Anticipation and awareness) were correlated with scores on a measure of material preparedness. For both women and men, seven factors were found to be associated with both psychological and material preparedness: (a) information awareness about psychological preparedness, (b) previous emergency services training or experience, (c) previous experience of natural hazard threat, (d) higher mindfulness scores, (e) higher active engagement coping style scores, (f) low stress scores, and (g) low depression scores. It was concluded that important issues remain to be addressed about how householder psychological preparedness for disasters is best conceptualised, measured, and modified.

}, keywords = {Coping, disasters, Mindfulness, Natural hazards, Psychological preparedness, Stress}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101203}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918310690}, author = {Danielle Every and Jim McLennan and Amy Reynolds and Trigg, Josh} } @article {bnh-5687, title = {Building best practice in child-centred disaster risk reduction: project report 2014-2016}, number = {485}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This Final Report summarises progress on Building Best Practice in Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction (CC-DRR), with a focus on the 3 year project, 2014-16.\  The first 3 years has included scoping and review, the development of a conceptual framework to guide the research, a utilisation roadmap, and the initiation of pilot and main research.\  The CC-DRR Project conceptual framework reflects a parsimonious research narrative designed to build on research-policy-practice progress to date but, critically, solve problems and challenges across that nexus

}, keywords = {child-centred disaster risk reduction, Emergency; Disaster; Citizen action; Emergence; Informal volunteerism; Resilience}, issn = {485}, author = {Kevin Ronan and Briony Towers} } @article {bnh-5831, title = {Building resilience through flood risk communication annual report 2018-2019}, number = {509}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project commenced in July 2017 and comprises two phases:

  1. Understanding behaviour in and around floodwater, and
  2. Evaluating flood risk communication materials and developing guidelines.

This project is based on the findings of earlier BNHCRC research that investigated human fatalities from natural disasters (Haynes et al., 2017). This project focuses on the two behaviours most frequently associated with flood fatalities:

  1. Driving into floodwater in a motor vehicle, and
  2. Recreating in floodwater.

The focus is on the at-risk groups identified from this earlier research including emergency services personnel, younger and older male drivers, and children and young adults who play in floodwater (Haynes et al., 2017).

The year 2 activities that have been undertaken include:

Work is now underway to transition to Phase 2 activities and to maximise project utilisation opportunities.

}, keywords = {communication, emergency management., Flood, resilience, risk, risk mitigation}, issn = {509}, author = {Mel Taylor and Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa} } @article {bnh-5418, title = {Challenges for prescribed fire management in Australia{\textquoteright}s fire-prone rangelands {\textendash} the example of the Northern Territory}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, abstract = {

Northern Australia comprises by far the most fire-prone-half of a fiery continent, where fire frequencies range from annual in the tropical savannas to periodic very-extensive fire events following above-rainfall conditions in the central Australian rangelands. As illustration of the challenges facing effective fire management in Australia{\textquoteright}s 5.7 {\texttimes} 106 km2\ rangelands, we examine the status of contemporary prescribed burning activities in the Northern Territory, a 1.4 {\texttimes} 106 km2, very sparsely settled (0.18 persons km-2) jurisdiction characterised by vast flammable landscapes, few barriers to fire-spread, predominantly anthropogenic ignitions, and limited institutional resources and capacity. Unsurprisingly, prescribed-fire management is shown to be restricted to specific locales. For more effective, landscape-scale fire management, potential solutions include engagement with dispersed remote communities and incorporation of Indigenous Ranger Groups into the fire-management network, and building on the success of savanna-burning greenhouse gas emission projects as an example for incentivising landscape fire and emergency management services generally. Recently, significant steps have been taken towards implementing formal regional fire-management planning processes involving inclusive community-stakeholder engagement, and the setting of clearly defined time-constrained objectives and targets.

}, keywords = {central Australia, Emergency management, fire regime, Indigenous rangers, remote communities, risk management, savannas}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18127}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18127?ct=t(EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2_27_2019_23_3)\&mc_cid=676faec148\&mc_eid=73e0665bda}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards and Kamaljit Sangha and Yates, Cameron P. and Mark Gardener} } @article {bnh-6311, title = {Community benefits of roof upgrades}, number = {528}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Legacy houses (Houses built Pre-1982) are at risk of damage from wind loads due to the often inadequate roof hold down provided by connection details. Improving wind resistance through replacing roof connections or retrofitting the existing structure can greatly improve building performance and community safety. The Queensland Government Household Resilience Program (HRP) provides funding to help eligible home owners improve the resilience of their homes against cyclones. This program developed with advice from the Cyclone Testing Station is managed by the Queensland Department of Housing \& Public Works (QDPWH) and commenced in late 2018.

}, keywords = {community resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, engineering, resilience, roof, Severe Weather}, issn = {528}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and David Henderson and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-6034, title = {Community engagement techniques toolkit}, number = {516}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This toolkit builds on National Strategy for Disaster Resilience: Community Engagement Framework Handbook 6 (Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience, 2013) by providing details of:

The model travels through a series of levels of community engagement planning and implementation, which helps practitioners to map and undertake the best community engagement approach for a specific community.

The base articles used to build the suite of techniques were found during a systematic literature review of preparedness activity. A systematic literature review is a rigorous, procedural approach to drawing out all available literature on a topic.\  The value of a systematic literature review is that it provides a wide ranging view of the accessible knowledge around a topic. Articles were included based on whether they measured impact of engagement techniques (such as preparedness levels, lives saved), and the quality of the research. The full list of articles can be found in the references section.

}, keywords = {community engagement, Emergency management, Evaluation, monitoring}, issn = {516}, author = {Barbara Ryan and Kim Johnston and Maureen Taylor} } @article {bnh-5433, title = {Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {464}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {
This project arose out of the on-going research efforts by the group involving\ structural engineering academics at the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne and\ Swinburne with Geoscience Australia experts all working towards seismic risk\ reduction in Australia. Most of the research team are actively involved in the\ revision to the Australian Earthquake Loads standard (AS1170.4) as well as being\ members of the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society which is a Technical\ Society of Engineers Australia. The devastating impact of the 2010{\textendash}11\ earthquakes in the Christchurch region on the New Zealand economy and\ society has further motivated this group to contribute to this CRC{\textquoteright}s aims of risk\ reduction for all natural hazards in Australia.\ This project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making\ on the mitigation of the risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian buildings\ subject to earthquakes. While the focus of this project is on buildings, many of\ the project outputs will also be relevant for other Australian infrastructure such as\ bridges, roads and ports, while at the\ same time complementing other {\textquoteleft}Natural\ Hazards{\textquoteright} CRC project proposals for severe wind and flood.
}, keywords = {cost-mitigation, earthquake}, author = {Michael Griffith and Hossein Derakhshan and Elisa Lumantarna and Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson and Nelson Lam and Mark Edwards and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-5480, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk: progress report on economic loss modelling }, number = {472}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The CRC Project A9 entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright} is seeking to address the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the earthquake risk posed by vulnerable Australian buildings.\  It aims to develop information related to more vulnerable Australian building types in the following areas:-

This report describes progress made against the last component which is directed at economic loss modelling.\  The work has been guided by, and is consistent with, the project team consensus achieved at a single day workshop convened at Swinburne University on the 23rd October 2015.

The economic loss modelling approach aims to encompass the information needs of a range of decision makers.\  These view benefits through different {\textquotedblleft}lenses{\textquotedblright} and at differing scales.\  For this research they include:-

In this report a background is provided on the motivations for this project.\  The current findings of an ongoing literature survey are presented, and the economic modelling frameworks proposed by the project team are described.\  This report corresponds with the Geoscience Australia component of the 30 June 2016 project milestone deliverable {\textquotedblleft}Progress Report on Economic and Damage Loss Models{\textquotedblright}.

}, keywords = {cost-effective, Disaster management, earthquake modelling}, author = {Itismita Mohanty and Mark Edwards and Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-5485, title = {Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development For Flood Prone Buildings: Flood Damage Models For Floodplain Management Workshop}, number = {473}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on the proceedings and outcomes of a flood vulnerability workshop held at RMIT University in Melbourne on 14 June 2018. The workshop was convened as part of a research utilisation project under the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project entitled {\textquoteright}Costeffective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquoteright}. Key workshop aims were to finalise the project scope with key stakeholders, establish a Project Steering and identify case study communities for consideration. The research utilisation project entails working with a variety of stakeholders with the aim of translating detailed flood vulnerability information into practical guidance for flood risk managers. It involves developing and testing a number of resolution options (from asset specific vulnerability assessments to more generalised methods) in a series of case studies. The workshop structure featured presentations and discussion following a logical flow from context setting, scope refinement and consensus through to governance and next steps. The key workshop aims described above were achieved and a series of {\textquoteleft}next steps{\textquoteright} were identified and documented in this report.

}, keywords = {building risk, cost-effective, Flood, flood risk, floodplain}, author = {Dale, K and Maqsood, T and Mark Edwards and Krishna Nadimpalli} } @article {bnh-5743, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood proof buildings - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {496}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations made during the 2011 and 2013 floods in Australia, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. Considerable costs were sustained by all levels of government and property owners to effect damage repair and enable community recovery.

A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. The vulnerability and associated flood risk is being reduced for newer construction by adopting new standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, however, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock remains. This vulnerability contributes disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquotedblright} aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains. The project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the flood risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian houses and complements parallel BNHCRC projects for earthquake and severe wind.

}, keywords = {building risk, cost-effective, Flood, flood prone}, issn = {496}, author = {Dale, K and Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-5742, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy for building related earthquake risk - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {498}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report contains a summary of 12-month research undertaken by 4 partner institutions towards the development of cost-effective seismic retrofit methods for vulnerable Australian buildings. Progress has been made in 3 complementary fronts to:
1) Understand the seismic vulnerabilities of existing unreinforced masonry (URM) and limited ductile reinforced concrete (LDRC) buildings and methods to address them through seismic retrofit;
2) Risk assessment of the building stock through development of an economic loss model; and
3) Advance an end user focused research utilization project in the area of community risk reduction. This is done through an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study for the historic town of York in Western Australia.

The first of the above components is being researched in the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne, and Swinburne. This work includes investigation of existing building seismic capacities and development of retrofit techniques. The second area is being studied by Geoscience and the work includes estimating direct and indirect losses associated with building damage and benefits from seismic retrofit. The last component is being conducted utilizing the research findings in the two other areas in collaboration with the Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services, York Shire Council and its residents. Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, recommendations are made for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base being developed by this CRC project team.

}, keywords = {building risk, cost-effective, cost-mitigation, earthquake, risk}, issn = {498}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-5775, title = {Coupled fire atmosphere modelling annual report 2018-2019}, number = {501}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The project goal is to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation model. Planned project outcomes include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events, installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI) and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past three years has been on several fronts; 1) publication of a case study of the Waroona fire and related outreach activities 2) implementing, developing and testing the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire 3) operational support during high-impact events and 4) draft of the paper {\textquoteright} Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire modelling{\textquoteright}.

}, keywords = {bushfire prediction, coupled-fire, fire behavour. fire impacts, modelling}, issn = {501}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} } @article {bnh-5417, title = {Delivering effective savanna fire management for defined biodiversity conservation outcomes: an Arnhem Land case study}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, abstract = {

Given the recent history of frequent and extensive late dry season wildfire in Australia{\textquoteright}s fire-prone northern savannas, regional conservation-based fire management programs typically aim to mitigate wildfire through the use of strategic prescribed burning during the cooler early dry season. However, it remains unclear as to the extent such environmental management concerns are being addressed by these renewed fire management efforts. This study documents changes in fire regime in the western Arnhem Land region of northern Australia associated with the implementation of active fire management since 2006. Over a 12-year period, the regional fire regime has transitioned from late dry season, wildfire-dominated to being characterised by a majority of fires occurring as small early dry season prescribed burns. Although overall area burnt has not significantly decreased, most ecological threshold metrics have improved, with the exception of those describing the maintenance of longer-unburnt habitat. Challenges involved with defining, delivering, monitoring and evaluating heterogeneity targets are discussed.

}, keywords = {ecological thresholds, fire regimes, Prescribed burning}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18126}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18126}, author = {Jay Evans and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-6307, title = {Demographic profiling: Queensland floods 2010-11 Brisbane River catchment area case study}, number = {527}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Queensland Flood 2010-11 flood-affected Brisbane River catchment local government areas (LGAs):\ 

The profiling utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source (in line with project\ methodology) as well as official government reports for flood-related statistics.\ In presenting this information, we note that our demographic rofiling captures\ the overall population-level trends for these areas, which are affected by factors\ including migration and population growth. This enables us to present a baseline\ of the overall socioeconomic characteristics and conditions of these areas both\ prior to (2006) and post the floods (2011, 2016).\ This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be\ released for each of the project case studies.

}, keywords = {Brisbane river, economic impact, Emergency management, flood safety, Floods, optimisation, risk analysis}, issn = {527}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6293, title = {Demographic profiling: Western Australia Toodyay bushfires 2009 case study}, number = {526}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Shire of Toodyay, a small town in the Western Australian Wheatbelt region that was devastated by bushfires on 29 December 2009.

The profiling utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source (in line with project methodology), at either a SA2 or local government area (LGA) level, depending on available information. It also relies on official government reports for fire related statistics.

In presenting this information, we note that our demographic profiling captures the overall population-level trends, which are affected by factors including migration and population growth. This enables us to present a baseline of the overall socioeconomic characteristics and conditions of Toodyay both prior to (2006) and post the fires (2011, 2016).

This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be released for each of the project case studies.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, optimisation, post-disaster, recovery, risk analysis}, issn = {526}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-5830, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme bushfire behaviour annual report 2018-2019}, number = {508}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Crown fires in forest ecosystems can pose a major threat to life and property due to their high intensities and rapid rates of spread. However, research into the prediction of crown fire dynamics in the Eucalyptus forests of Australia is limited. Previous studies have focused on coarse temporal scales, utilised low resolution weather based predictors, and often disregard the spatial nature of crown fires. Our study aimed to use observations from large wildfires in eucalypt forests to develop an empirical model to predict the likelihood of crown fire events using environmental predictors at an hourly scale. Our study was conducted in south-eastern Australia using data from fifteen large wildfires that occurred between 2009 and 2015. Fire severity maps were created for each fire at a 30\ m resolution using Landsat imagery from which we calculated the proportion of 30 m pixels experiencing crown fire within a 150 x 150 m window (2.25 ha). Predictor variables were chosen to represent the four key environmental drivers of fire behaviour, namely fuel moisture (i.e. live and dead fuel), fuel load and structure (i.e. surface, elevated, and bark fuels, and tree height), fire weather (i.e. vapour-pressure deficit, wind speed, relative wind direction) and topography (i.e. slope and ruggedness). Random Forests were used to model the effect of environmental drivers on the proportion of crown fire. Fuel moisture content variables were the best predictors of probability of crown consumption. Topographic variables and fire weather had only an intermediate influence and fuel load and structure had the lowest influence. Crown fire runs largely occurred when thresholds in vapour-pressure deficit (\<4\ kPa) and dead fuel moisture content (\<7\%) were exceeded. Predictions from the model showed a high degree of agreement with the raw fire severity maps. The proposed models have the potential to provide guidance on the likelihood of crown fire during fire events.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, extreme bushfires, fire behaviour., weather conditions}, issn = {508}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-5424, title = {Determining Threshold Conditions for Extreme Fire Behaviour Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {460}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Extreme fires cause disproportionate impacts on the environment and the community. There are significant incentives to being able to predict their occurrence and behaviour. Most existing fire behaviour models have been developed based on data and observations of fires that were small to moderate in size. Consequently, they are not able to emulate the dynamic bushfire behaviour that can occur under extreme conditions.

The main aim of this project is to investigate the conditions and processes under which bushfire behaviour undergoes major transitions, including fire convection and plume dynamics, evaluating the consequences of eruptive fire behaviour (spotting events, convection driven wind damage, rapid fire spread) and determining the combination of conditions for such behaviours to occur (e.g. unstable atmosphere, fuel properties and weather conditions). To do this the project was separated into two phases. The first phase of the project was focused on data collection about extreme fires, analysis the frequency of occurrence of extreme fire phenomena and determination the potential of including them in fire behaviour models.

}, keywords = {extreme fire behaviour, fire behavour, fire management}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-6237, title = {Disaggregation of JASMIN soil moisture product to 1KM resolution}, number = {521}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire intensity, spread rate, and ignition are very sensitive to fuel dryness which in turn is strongly linked to soil moisture deficit. Though the value of soil moisture deficit in predicting fire danger has been long established, very few fire danger rating systems employ a comprehensive methodology to estimate it. Most such fire danger rating systems use very simple empirical water balance models which are found to have errors. The Bureau of Meteorology has recently developed a prototype, highresolution, land surface modelling based, state-of-the-art soil moisture analysis for Australia. The product, called Joint United Kingdom Land Environment Simulator (JULES) based Australian Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN), has a spatial resolution of 5 km at hourly timesteps. However, applications like fire danger mapping may require soil moisture information at higher spatial resolution due to the large spatial variability of soil moisture in the landscape. We focus on some of the research carried out to downscale the JASMIN product from 5 km to 1 km spatial resolution. We discuss the application of three downscaling algorithms: two regression-based methods and one with a theoretical basis. The three methods applied are based on the well-known surface temperature {\textendash} vegetation index space. We present an overview of the application of each method, along with an evaluation and comparison against each other and against ground-based soil moisture observations. Results from comparison with ground-based soil moisture measurements indicate that there is no significant degradation of the bias in the three methods, when going into higher spatial resolutions. However, the regression methods, in general, fail to capture the observed temporal variability. The theoretical based method, on the other hand, provides a temporal correlation of 0.81 and captures the skill of the parent JASMIN product.

}, keywords = {dryness, Emergency management, JASMIN, resolution, Soil moisture}, issn = {521}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {bnh-5479, title = {The disaster resilience project: a school-based feasibility and acceptability study}, number = {471}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The aim of school-based Disaster Resilience Education (DRE) is to build students{\textquoteright} understanding of the causes, nature and effects of hazards, while also fostering a range of competencies and skills that will enable them to contribute proactively to disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. The development and delivery of school-based DRE has been identified as a key priority for action in disaster resilience policy frameworks and strategies from the international to the local level. To support the delivery of the quality DRE in Victorian secondary schools, the Country Fire Authority (CFA) and the Victorian State Emergency Service (VicSES) in collaboration with secondary school teachers and students, have developed the Disaster Resilience Project (DRP) - a multi-hazard, teacher-delivered, web-based DRE program for students in Years 7 to 9. The program aims to increase students{\textquoteright} knowledge and awareness of local disaster risks and build their capacity for initiating and participating in practical action for disaster risk reduction and resilience.
The pilot version of the Disaster Resilience Project (DRP) was informed by extensive consultations with Victorian secondary school teachers, policy frameworks for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and resilience, and the academic literature. It was comprised of a structured set of five lessons designed to guide students through an exploration of key concepts in DRR and resilience, support them to apply those concepts to their own local context, and encourage them to plan and implement a DRR or resilience building activity at home, school or in the wider community. To support the teacher-delivered model of implementation, the pilot version also included a 45-60 minute face-to-face professional development session in which CFA project staff guided teachers through the learning intentions and the teaching and learning activities for each lesson.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk reduction, Emergency; Disaster; Citizen action; Emergence; Informal volunteerism; Resilience, school}, author = {Briony Towers and Sophie Perillo and Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-5420, title = {Economics of Natural Hazards Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {455}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Our project aims to provide information on the economic, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards (tangible and intangible), in order to help hazard managers in their decision making. The purpose of our research is to help emergency service and land management agencies better prioritise their investments in mitigation. Using economic tools and expertise, we assess the impacts of hazard mitigation on intangible (non-market) values, in order to shed light on the real (total) costs and benefits of natural hazards (tangible and intangible) and help agencies better allocate their resources for mitigation.

}, keywords = {economics, environment, Multi-hazard, Natural hazards}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-5929, title = {Economics of natural hazards annual report 2018-2019}, number = {512}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Our project aims to provide information on the economic, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards (tangible and intangible), in order to help hazard managers in their decision making. We investigate the impacts of hazard mitigation on intangible (non-market) values, to shed light on the real (total) costs and benefits of natural hazards.

Our main focus is on developing tools and materials that will provide natural hazards managers with information on the value of mitigation and how intangible (non-market) values affect the costs and benefits of mitigation activities.
Our project will have 4 key outcomes:

  1. Provide an online platform for the intangible values database (called the Value Tool for Natural Hazards). The tool will be updated and maintained beyond the project so that managers can easily integrate intangible values in their analyses.
  2. Fill major knowledge gaps identified in the literature on intangible values that are affected by the management of natural hazards and improve the value tool with this new knowledge.
  3. Develop a Quick Economic Analysis Tool for the evaluation of the (tangible and intangible) costs and benefits of mitigation options that enables managers to conduct economic analyses in weeks rather than months.
  4. Create a Free Online Course on the application of economics to the assessment of natural hazard management options.

This year, we have progressed in the 4 outcomes outlined above:

  1. A website has been created for the Value Tool. Both the database and the guidelines can now be downloaded from http://valuetoolnaturalhazards.com. As per the agreement between UWA and BNHCRC, the tool will be freely accessible to end-users and external users. The website also includes the relevant disclaimer information and instructions that users of the tool must agree to comply with.
  2. A survey instrument has been designed and road-tested in a focus group for the original non-market valuation study. The next step in this process will be to test the survey in the Shire of York (WA), where we will estimate non-market values associated with cultural heritage and mental health.
  3. The draft (Beta) version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) has been completed. QEAT is currently being improved to include an easy-to-use sensitivity analysis, to be able to perform the analysis of several management options concurrently and to include a summary dashboard where all results are summarised in an easy-to-read manner. These additions are key aspects that our end-users have mentioned in the past as important to include in a tool such as this one. The Tool now needs to be validated with case studies.
  4. Equipment for creating the online videos is being purchased (e.g. green screen for background, microphone and tripod for computer). Filming of the videos will commence in July 2019.

The utilisation outputs from our project this year involved the development and distribution of tools that help natural hazard managers integration intangible (non-market) values in their decision making. The Value Tool for Natural Hazards and the accompanying guidelines are now available online and can be easily downloaded by end-users of the BNHCRC or other organisations. The Beta version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) is in the process of being improved to include key aspects that were highlighted by end-users as important to include in a tool as this one.

This year there were 4 publications from the project: 3 peer-reviewed and one non-peer reviewed (see Project Publications 2018-2019 section below).

}, keywords = {Bushfire, cost-effective, cyclone, earthquake, economics, Emergency management, Flood, Natural hazards, risk management}, issn = {512}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-5570, title = {Effective diversity in emergency management organisations: the long road}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency management}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Traditionally, the human face of emergency services organisations has lacked diversity. However, escalating natural hazard risks due to social, environmental and economic drivers requires a transformation in how these risks are managed and who needs to manage them. With communities becoming more diverse, building community and organisational resilience to more frequent and intense emergency events needs organisations to change from working for communities to working with them.

This requires greater diversity in skills and capabilities in the people who apply them, making diversity and inclusion a moral and business imperative. This paper summarises findings from an assessment of the diversity and inclusion literature relevant to the emergency management sector. Three case studies that are elements of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquoteleft}Diversity and Inclusion: Building strength and capability{\textquoteright} are examined.

The research assessed the current context in which diversity and inclusion exist in each organisation and identified barriers, needs, challenges and opportunities. The major findings provide a basis to develop a support framework for effective management and measurement of diversity and inclusion.

}, keywords = {diversity, emergency services, inclusion in the emergency services/emergency management sector}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-effective-diversity-in-emergency-management-organisations-the-long-road/}, author = {Celeste Young} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5779, title = {Effects of Sydney coastal dry sclerophyll forest litter on fuels and fire behaviour in Hornsby shire}, volume = {Masters of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, school = {The University of Sydney}, type = {Masters}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Globally bushfires are an ecological phenomenon that can cause deaths and widespread destruction of assets such as homes, utilities and essential infrastructure. Bushfires usually start in forest litter on a forest floor. The research described in this thesis used empirical data to characterise the physical and chemical attributes of litter, a component of forest and woodland fuels that is particularly important for propagation of fire. Differences in the amounts, arrangement and flammability of components of litter were determined for Sydney Coastal Dry Sclerophyll Forest, a common vegetation type in the Sydney Basin. Surface litter was investigated at study sites at Rofe Park, Hornsby Heights and Halls Creek, Arcadia, New South Wales, Australia.

}, keywords = {bushfires, coastal fire, flammability, litter, rubbish, Sydney, vegetation}, author = {Angela Gormley} } @article {bnh-5415, title = {Emergency Volunteering 2030: Views from Managers in Volunteerism}, number = {452}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

What is emergency volunteering going to look like in 2030? How (and by whom) is it going to be organised?

How can the emergency management sector best enable the value of volunteering for communities - before, during and after an emergency - into the future?

This report provides answers to these questions from the perspectives of 34 managers that have responsibilities for volunteerism in Australian emergency management organisations (EMOs) working across preparedness, response, relief, and recovery. The report is one of a series of Environmental Scan reports that will be synthesised and presented to an expert panel to assist researchers in developing alternative scenarios for the future of emergency volunteering to inform today{\textquoteright}s decision making.

}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Tarn Kruger} } @article {bnh-5773, title = {Emergency volunteering 2030: Views from the community sector}, number = {500}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report presents findings from an on-line, qualitative survey of 48 community sector representatives from across the states of Australia. The purpose of the survey was to find out more about the community sector in relation to emergency volunteering and to elicit the views of key community sector representatives about changes in the volunteering landscape that have occurred in the past and are occurring now; and about their visions for a preferred future for community sector volunteering that supports communities before, during and after emergency events.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, emergency volunteering, volunteers}, issn = {500}, author = {Tarn Kruger and Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-5610, title = {Emergency volunteering shared learning network}, number = {478}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Emergency Volunteering Shared Learning Network (EVN) was established in September 2018, with the following goals:

The EVN was initially set up as a 6-month pilot project, sponsored by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) in conjunction with the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering research project.1 The EVN is convened by Blythe McLennan and Tarn Kruger from RMIT University.

The purpose of this report is to document the activities of the EVN during the pilot period, evaluate their impact and share learnings with the network{\textquoteright}s members as well as other BNHCRC researchers and end users. The report will also help to inform decisions about the next steps for the EVN.

}, keywords = {Citizen action, disaster, Emergence, Emergency, Informal volunteerism, resilience, volunteering}, issn = {478}, author = {Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-6126, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road infrastructure annual report 2018-2019}, number = {519}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The overarching aim of the proposed second stage of the project is to work closely with key stakeholders to implement the methodologies that have been developed for vulnerability modelling of road structures to priorities vulnerable structures for improvements, to quantify the cost of reconstruction and/or cost of hardening of structures, and to integrate community resilience considerations into the decision-making process.

During the last financial year, the research team has published seven peer-reviewed journal papers (5 Scimago Q1 journal papers), 13 national/international conferences papers and one technical report, while there are eight journal papers under review now.

The major research activities include the generic analysis of bridges in terms of structural analysis, community impact model for decision making on strengthening, floodway inspection methodology, and strengthening options for different hazard types and levels. A floodway inspection and maintenance framework were also developed to guide the future inspection and maintenance of those bridges, especially for those have undergone hazard events.

Four workshops and four meetings were held during the second year of Stage 2 of the project. Two workshops were held at RMIT University to discuss with end users and colleagues regarding the feedback and comments of the project progresses. One workshop was held at the University of Southern Queensland and the Queensland University of Technology, respectively. Feedbacks from these end users have largely benefited the research progress.

Four major utilization activities have been identified and are in progress.

Our next step is to focus on the remaining milestones and engaging with those end users to tailor the research direction and fulfill their urgent research needs. The final project completion report will be also submitted then for the review of BNH CRC.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, engineering, infrastructure resilience}, issn = {519}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Lihai Zhang and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @article {bnh-5435, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road infrastructure: bridges, culverts and flood-ways under natural hazards Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {466}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During stage 1 of the project, disaster risk was understood in terms of the vulnerability of road structures, and the impacts of road failure on local communities. Stage 2 aims to enhance disaster preparedness, inform more effective responses, and ensuring that damaged structures are built back better during the recovery. In Stage 2 of this project, research will continue to apply the methods developed in Stage 1 to examine the vulnerability of categories of road structures for decision making. In addition to the assessment of structural vulnerability, a decision support framework will be developed through collaboration with other research projects of the BNH CRC such as decision making and fire modeling. The overarching aim of the proposed second stage of the project is to work closely with key stakeholders to implement the methodologies that have been developed for vulnerability modelling of road structures to priorities vulnerable structures for improvements, to quantify the cost of reconstruction and/or cost of hardening of structures, and to integrate community resilience considerations into the decisionmaking process. During the first year of Stage 2, several research objectives have been achieved, including hazard mapping for Victoria and Queensland, categorization of road structures, and floodway design process. The related methodologies are introduced below one by one.

}, keywords = {bridges, floodways, infrastructure resilience, Natural hazards}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Lihai Zhang and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @article {bnh-5487, title = {Final report on vulnerability of as-built and retrofitted URM buildings}, number = {474}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

As reported in the previous project reports {\textquotedblleft}Fragility Curves for URM Buildings{\textquotedblright} (Derakhshan and Griffith, 2018) and {\textquotedblleft}Fragility Curves for Retrofitted URM Buildings{\textquotedblright} (Vaculik and Griffith, 2018), fragility curves are an important tool for estimating the economic loss due to earthquakes. In this report, Fragility is used as a proxy for Vulnerability.\  As a follow-up to the work presented in the previous two reports, this report presents fragility curves for {\textquoteleft}as-is{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}retrofitted{\textquoteright} URM buildings in terms of {\textquoteleft}probability of exceedance{\textquoteright} versus {\textquoteleft}peak ground acceleration{\textquoteright} (PGA) for four damage ratios, D1 {\textendash} D4. With this additional information, it will be possible to estimate the reduced damage due to seismic retrofit for cost-benefit analyses for a range of earthquake scenarios in order to ensure cost-effective seismic strengthening policy.

With this in mind, the remainder of this report should be treated as an addendum to the previous two project reports (Derakhshan and Griffith, and Vaculik and Griffith, 2018), hereafter referred to as the August and October 2018 reports.

In the October 2018 report, we described the methodology used to produce empirically-based fragility curves for seismically strengthened URM buildings on the basis of performance reported for 78 heritage-listed buildings in Christchurch during the 2010 and 2011 earthquake sequence.\ 

Empirical fragility curves for the global damage of strengthened buildings have been derived using the simplifying assumption that the PGA to cause a particular probability of a given damage state in a strengthened building can be obtained as a scalar multiple of the probability to cause the same damage state in the unstrengthened building. On the basis of this assumption, PGA scaling multipliers are calibrated which can be used to apply a rightward shift to the unstrengthened building curves (from the August 2018 report) to produce the corresponding curves for strengthened buildings. These multipliers were calibrated using the Christchurch earthquake damage data for two levels of retrofit. It was found that a multiplier of 1.4 produces good agreement for buildings with a full building strengthening level of retrofit, and a multiplier of 1.1 for buildings with partial or incomplete strengthening.\  These relatively low values are a result of the fact that the unreinforced masonry buildings in Christchurch were retrofitted as many as 50 years ago when seismic strengthening technologies for URM buildings were in their infancy.\  With advances in our understanding and improved retrofit technologies of today, where the seismic strengthening techniques have been experimentally validated, slightly higher scaling multipliers of 1.25 and 1.6 are justified and were used to generate the fragility curves for partial and full seismic retrofit, respectively.

}, keywords = {Built Environment, earthquake, URM}, author = {Jaroslav Vaculik and Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-5488, title = {Fire in the south: a cross-continental exchange}, number = {475}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report documents a trip undertaken across southern Western Australia (WA) to exchange knowledge from south eastern Australia about cultural burning with traditional owners and fire authorities in Norseman, Esperance, Nowanup, Albany, Bunbury and Perth. The journey took place in the anticipatory shadow of catastrophic wildfires that can destroy, and have destroyed, much of value in this part of the world.

The key learnings are summarised under the headings: Fire and life, At-risk values, Healing, Cultural burning as a contemporary practice, Volunteer training and fire skills, Relations and repair, and, East-West engagement across southern Australia. We also summarise the presentations by Dean Freeman about the ACT government cultural burning program. Together, these summaries form the substantive content of the report. They are supplemented by anecdotal accounts of each meeting, as well as background information on native title and other key terminology and concepts.

Fundamentally, the Aboriginal people we met with talked about the importance of understanding fire differently, to reposition it as not just something to fear, but as central to the regeneration of life. At the same time, all were concerned about the growth in catastrophic wildfires, and this intensified the focus on anticipatory land management practices.

Within this broader framing, the knowledge exchanged on this trip reflected that:

As a consequence of significant societal change to recognise and celebrate First Nations peoples in Australia, British derived systems of governance are required to work with Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} political entities, including partnering on fire management issues. Concomitantly, the public sector and political leadership needs to think closely about what is meant by {\textquoteleft}the public good{\textquoteright} in their policies and programs {\textendash} that is, who is the public and what do they consider is good? Whilst northern Australia is an emblematic focus of activity by and for Indigenous Australia, the majority of Australia{\textquoteright}s Indigenous people live in southern Australia, and with the recognition of native title they are now the largest land holders in southern Australia. The ACT government{\textquoteright}s support of cultural burning is one example of how fire management is being refashioned with neither land rights nor native title, but motivated individuals doing the work to make it possible, because it is the right thing to do.

Significantly, fundamental shifts in the nature of land holding in Australia are bringing the public sector into greater exposure with the connected thinking and governing systems that arise out of Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} relationships with Country. However, throughout Australia there is much more healing that needs to be done for such intercultural engagement to progress and be more meaningful for Indigenous people, including in material terms. The key players are in a good position to invest in the good will and work that is already present and take this forward.

}, keywords = {culture, Fire, hazards, indigenous communities}, issn = {475}, author = {Jessica Weir and Dean Freeman} } @article {bnh-5476, title = {Flash flood fatalities in NSW, VIC, ACT and South East QLD from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017}, number = {470}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In terms of lives lost, floods are second only to heatwaves (Coates, 1996; Coates et al 2014), and are one of the top three natural hazards in terms of cost and damage caused, disrupting the functioning of businesses and communities due to\ \ \  building\  \ and\  \ infrastructure\  \ damage.\  \ In\  \ terms\  \ of\  \ reducing\  \ human casualties, \ flash \ floods \ pose \ a \ unique \ challenge \ to \ emergency \ responders and emergency management. Consideration must be given to the efficacy of public education campaigns and warnings, the relative risks occupants face inside and outside the dwelling and the behaviour of individuals during flood events.

The current report builds on that carried out by Risk Frontiers for the New South Wales \ State \ Emergency\  Service \ [Haynes \ et \ al, \ 2009], \ which \ examined \ the fatality and injury record for Australian flash flood events from 1950 to 2008. It also continues the work done for the floods component of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project, {\textquotedblleft}An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters in Australia{\textquotedblright} [see Haynes et al, 2016]. The current research focuses on the circumstances surrounding fatalities resulting from flash flood events in New South Wales (NSW) from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017. To enable comparisons to be made, a few other jurisdictions were examined. The aim is to identify those most at risk and \ any \ trends \ in \ recent \ flash \ flood \ events \ in \ order\  \ to \ inform \ policy development by the NSW SES.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, flood management, health and safety, risk management}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Andrew Gissing and Katharine Haynes and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith and Deirdre Radford} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6161, title = {Fragility and resilience of bridges subjected to extreme wave-induced forces}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, school = {RMIT University}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bridges are susceptible to severe damage due to wave-induced forces during extreme events such as floods, hurricanes, storm surges and tsunamis. As a direct impact of climate change, the frequency and intensity of these events are also expected to increase in the future. The damages to bridges lead to substantial community impact during emergency and post-disaster recovery activities. Hence, viable restoration strategies are needed to enhance the resilience of bridges under extreme wave hazards. The research on the quantification of vulnerability and resilience of bridges under extreme wave forces is limited. In particular, vulnerability and resilience assessment tools for bridges under different hazard intensity levels are required to quantify the resilience. This research addresses these research needs by providing a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework for bridges subjected to extreme hydrodynamic forces.

A comprehensive literature review is first conducted on the four resilience assessment elements, namely external wave force characterization, structural response, vulnerability assessment and resilience quantification to identify the existing gaps in knowledge, particularly in vulnerability and assessment methods.
Unified resilience indices, based on the {\textquotedblleft}resilience triangle{\textquotedblright} concept, are proposed to take into account the effect of the consideration of resources (cost) and environmental impact and their relative importance to the decision makers in the resilience quantification. Such indices are important for stakeholders as they provide a linkage between the social (time), economic and environmental impacts in the assessment of restoration strategies.

An integrated vulnerability assessment framework for bridges with strong connectivity between super- and sub-structure is proposed. The framework includes both static and time-history analyses to examine the performance of bridges subjected to significant hydrodynamic forces. The uncertainties in force and structural parameters are taken into account and the probability of damage is estimated using six damage states that define the pre- and post-peak response of bridge. The pier drift is taken as the engineering demand parameter. The use of two-parameter intensity measures that can provide an accurate estimation of the response of bridge such as momentum flux (hu2) and moment of momentum flux (h2u2/2) is investigated.

To demonstrate the proposed framework, a numerical model is developed for a case study bridge located in a flood-prone region in Queensland, Australia. The accuracy of the piers model is validated using published works on small-scale pier specimens that have limited ductility. The effect of strengthening of bridge piers using fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) jackets is examined.

The overall fragility functions for all intensity measures (velocity, inundation depth, momentum flux and moment of momentum flux) are obtained for both initial and strengthened bridge. The reduction in scatter of fragility data is examined for the two-parameter intensity measures for all damage states. The viability of the use of FRP jackets for enhancing the resilience of bridges under extreme wave forces is also evaluated. The application of unified resilience indices based on the damage probability data obtained from fragility analysis is discussed for different intensities of the hazard.

The main contribution provided by this research is the comprehensive vulnerability and resilience assessment methods for bridges under extreme wave hazards. Such methodologies can assist in the evaluation of the different pre-disaster strengthening and recovery schemes for bridges. Decision makers (e.g., road authorities) can use the outcome of this research to assess the different retrofitting options for bridges taking into consideration the time, cost and energy consumption associated with each option.

}, keywords = {bridges, Emergency management, engineering, Fragility, Natural disasters, resilience}, author = {Ismail Qeshta} } @article {bnh-5697, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: annual project report 2018-19}, number = {487}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2018-2019 Annual Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems{\textquotedblright}. The project aims to provide critical support to agency decision makers across southern Australia by undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across the region. This report describes the background, research approach and key milestones since the previous Annual Report in 2017-2018. The report focuses on the research outputs informing the development of the Prescribed Fire Atlas. The project has now delivered a rich, layered dataset capable of addressing nuanced questions about the quantitative risk reduction available through prescribed burning for multiple management values in varying landscapes. The project is now entering its final phase as we complete climate change and cost-effectiveness analyses and launch the Prescribed Burning Atlas in 2019/20. The Prescribed Burning Atlas will provide geographically based summary of risk for decision makers in an accessible, user friendly format. Our project is unique in placing the design and delivery of this utilisation output at the heart of the project. Active involvement of end users throughout 2020 and beyond will be crucial in ensuring uptake and translation into outcomes for end users and the communities they serve.

}, keywords = {cost-effective, ecosystems, fire management, Prescribed burning}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-6000, title = {Globe-LFMC, a global plant water status database for vegetation ecophysiology and wildfire applications}, journal = {Scientific Data}, volume = {6}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, abstract = {

Globe-LFMC is an extensive global database of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) measured from 1,383 sampling sites in 11 countries: Argentina, Australia, China, France, Italy, Senegal, Spain, South Africa, Tunisia, United Kingdom and the United States of America. The database contains 161,717 individual records based on in situ destructive samples used to measure LFMC, representing the amount of water in plant leaves per unit of dry matter. the primary goal of the database is to calibrate and validate remote sensing algorithms used to predict LFMC. However, this database is also relevant for the calibration and validation of dynamic global vegetation models, eco-physiological models of plant water stress as well as understanding the physiological drivers of spatiotemporal variation in LFMC at local, regional and global scales. Globe-LFMC should be useful for studying LFMC trends in response to environmental change and LFMC influence on wildfire occurrence, wildfire behavior, and overall vegetation health.

}, keywords = {database, Emergency management, land management, Natural disasters, Wildfire spread}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0164-9}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-019-0164-9.epdf?author_access_token=HISJcfE-VovHPab3al2NwNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OARKV_7w7xO9p9PGwHd2zKbrs5f-VkYE5AC2lYTydBxaTKy0JaWSgXKUWz0U-fruuzViNrn1JJFl8mARAjGudmQfIcQsd98fM0zv-fk4bXxA\%3D\%3D}, author = {Marta Yebra and Gianluca Scortechini and Abdulbaset Badi and Maria Eugenia Beget and Matthias M. Boer and Ross Bradstock and Emilio Chuvieco and F. Mark Danson and Philip Dennison and Victor Resco de Dios and Carlos M. Di Bella and Greg Forsyth and Philip Frost and Mariano Garcia and Abdelaziz Hamdi and Binbin He and Matt Jolly and Tineke Kraaij and Pillar Martin and Florent Mouillot and Glenn J Newnham and Rachael Nolan and Grazia Pellizzaro and Yi Qi and Xingwen Quan and David Ria{\~n}o and Dar Roberts and Momadou Sow and Susan Ustin} } @article {bnh-5422, title = {Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {457}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Over the past decade, there has been an increasing amount of public attention focused on the contributions that Aboriginal people, and their knowledge and practices, make to resilience and sustainability agendas in Australia. Given the emerging commitment of natural hazards agencies in southern Australia to engagement and collaboration with Aboriginal people, the increasing level of legal recognition accorded to Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} land rights, and Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} own investment and interest in engaging in forms of natural hazard management, it is important that researchers support to this work, to understand and document how beneficial and respectful collaborations can be fostered.

The first year of the Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities (HCIC) project has focused around completing publications, initial fieldwork and the development of research priorities, and maintaining strong end user engagement. Key activities from this first year include:

}, keywords = {indigenous communities, Multi-hazard, Natural hazards}, author = {Will Smith and Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-5437, title = {Historical background and current developments for mapping burned area from satellite Earth observation}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {225}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, pages = {45-64}, abstract = {

Fire has a diverse range of impacts on Earth{\textquoteright}s physical and social systems. Accurate and up to date information on areas affected by fire is critical to better understand drivers of fire activity, as well as its relevance for\ biogeochemical cycles, climate, air quality, and to aid fire management. Mapping burned areas was traditionally done from field sketches. With the launch of the first Earth\ observation satellites, remote sensing quickly became a more practical alternative to detect burned areas, as they provide timely regional and global coverage of fire occurrence. This review paper explores the physical basis to detect burned area from satellite observations, describes the historical trends of using\ satellite sensors\ to monitor burned areas, summarizes the most recent approaches to map burned areas and evaluates the existing burned area products (both at global and regional scales). Finally, it identifies potential future opportunities to further improve burned area detection from Earth observation satellites.

}, keywords = {Burned area, Climate change, Fire, fire impacts, Lidar, Radar}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.013}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425719300689}, author = {Emilio Chuvieco and Florent Mouillot and Guido van der Werf and Jes{\'u}s San Miguel and Mihai Tanasse and Nikos Koutsias and Mariano Garcia and Marta Yebra and Marc Padilla and Ioannis Gitas and Angelika Heil and Todd Hawbaker and Louis Giglio} } @article {bnh-5744, title = {Improving flood forecast using remote sensing data - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {497}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most damaging natural disasters in Australia. Over the last 40 years, the average annual cost of floods was estimated to be $377 million per year. The 2010-2011 floods in Brisbane and South-East Queensland alone resulted in 35 confirmed deaths and $2.38 billion damage. The floods in June 2016 in Queenslad, New South Wales, and Tasmania, resulted in five confirmed casualties. The Insurance Council of Australia stated on June 7, 2016 that about 14,500 claims totaling $56 million have been lodged from across the country. The floods in March-April 2017 in Queensland and New South Wales caused five confirmed casualties. Furthermore, according to the Insurance Council of Australia, 823,560 Queensland homes are still unprepared for flooding (March 11, 2018). The floods in North Queensland in January-February 2019 resulted in four confirmed fatalities and an estimated total direct cost of 1.3 billion dollars. In order to limit the personal and economic damage caused by floods, operational water and emergency managers heavily rely on flood forecasting systems. Further improvements to current flood forecasting systems are likely to reduce the personal and economic damage caused by floods.

}, keywords = {Flood, flood forecast, improving forecast, remote sensing data}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright and Yuan Li} } @article {bnh-5434, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events in Australia Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {465}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project will propose practical structural upgrading solutions based on the latest research that will make a significant improvement in the performance of Pre-80s (Legacy) houses that are impacted by severe windstorms. The project has analysed existing structural retrofitting details available for some forms of legacy housing and has found that uptake is limited, even when these houses require major repairs following severe storm events. The work carried out in 2017-18 has focussed on developing cost-effective strategies for mitigating damage to housing from severe windstorms. The major activity has been progressing the VAWS software package by Geoscience Australia (GA) using wind loading and structural response data and other test data obtained by the CTS-JCU:

{\textbullet} Residential structures (i.e. Houses) have been categorized into types based on building features that influence windstorm vulnerability using CTS and GA housing survey data. Two house types were selected and incorporated in the VAWS package. The structural response (i.e. damage progression) with increasing wind speed has been modelled and validated. Testing carried out as part of BNHCRC supported thesis projects have provided additional data.

{\textbullet} Retrofit options and cost-benefit modules will be added to the VAWS model by GA and made available for trialling by end users and stakeholders (i.e. homeowners, builders, regulators, insurers). End-users and stakeholders will be asked to evaluate VAWS and suggest amendments and provide feedback on practicality and aesthetics of potential upgrading methods for these house types. Cost effective guides will be developed for vulnerable house types.

{\textbullet} Case studies will be used to evaluate effectiveness of proposed retrofit solutions for risk reduction. Economic assessment using the same case studies will be used to promote (via the stakeholders and end users) uptake of practical retrofit options.

}, keywords = {housing structure, resilience, severe wind}, author = {David Henderson and John Ginger and Daniel Smith and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-6276, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events - annual report 2018-19}, number = {524}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project will provide practical structural retrofits that will make a significant improvement in the performance of Pre-80s (Legacy) houses to wind loads. The major activity carried out in 2018-19 by the CTS-JCU and GA has been progressing the VAWS software package using wind loading and structural response and other test data:

This project has also provided advice to the Queensland Government Household Resilience Program which provides funding to help eligible home owners improve the resilience of their homes against cyclones. This program is managed by the Queensland Department of Housing \& Public Works (QDHPW) and commenced in late 2018. Eligible home owners can apply to receive a Queensland Government grant of 75\% of the cost of improvements (up to a maximum of $11,250 including GST. About 2000 houses have been retrofitted.

}, keywords = {building resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, engineering, Housing, severe wind, storms, structural design}, issn = {524}, author = {John Ginger and Korah Parackal and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and David Henderson and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-5542, title = {Influence of road characteristics on flood fatalities in Australia}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, volume = {18 }, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

An analysis of published flood fatalities in Australia occurring between 1960 and 2015 revealed that 49\% of 229 flood fatalities were vehicle related. After reviewing previous work on vehicle-related flood fatalities, this study examines attributes of roadways that may have influenced driver decisions to enter floodwaters and the survivability of people in vehicles that did so and concludes by discussing policy implications. Characteristics most frequently present were small upstream catchment length that may influence the rate of rise of floodwaters; the absence of roadside barricades; deep flooding immediately adjacent to the roadway; the absence of lighting; dipping road grades that lead floodwaters to increase once a vehicle enters them; the lack of curb and guttering and the inability of motorists to easily turn around. Each of these factors were observed in at least 50\% of the cases studied and provide a risk-based means of assessing other sites vulnerable to flooding but where fatalities have not been observed to date.\ 

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, flood fatalities, risk management, road safety}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609407}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609407}, author = {Andrew Gissing and S. Opper and Matalena Tofa and Coates, Lucinda and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-6236, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation: annual report 2018-2019}, number = {522}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on the carried-out activities, achieved milestones, and submitted deliverables for the second year of operation of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Integrated Urban Planning for Natural Hazard Mitigation project {\textendash} 1st July 2018 to 30th June 2019. It contrasts achieved and planned outcomes and explains the necessary adjustments carried out to date. It starts by offering a background to the project, followed by considerations to the research approach being undertaken and then an explanation of the project implementation in greater detail and its utilisation outputs. This Year 2 {\textendash} 2018-2019 report will be followed by one final annual report to be submitted in mid-2020. In parallel to annual reports, this research project generates quarterly reports that further detail its operation every three months, as well as yearly self-assessment matrices. On the 30th of June 2020, a final report summarising key research project outcomes will also be submitted.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, future, integrating, mitigation, Planning, urban}, issn = {522}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-5506, title = {Internal pressures in a full-scale test enclosure with windward wall openings}, journal = {Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics }, volume = {189}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

A single opening on the windward wall which generates large\ internal pressures\ in a building often defines the critical\ wind loadingstructural design\ criterion. This paper presents internal pressure fluctuations in a sealed\ Full-Scale Test\ Enclosure (FSTE) for a range of single windward wall opening configurations induced by atmospheric wind flow, to assess the influence\ opening size\ (i.e. S*\ =\ (A3/2/V)(as/U{\textasciimacron}h)2) has on the internal pressure. Damped\ Helmholtz\ resonance was observed for S* \> 0.88, with peak and standard deviation internal pressures being about 5\% higher than the\ external pressures\ when S* \> 1.9. Internal pressure fluctuations are attenuated when S* \< 0.75. The inertial coefficient\ CI\ is between 1.3 and 1.5 and the\ loss coefficientCL\ increases with increasing\ opening area(0.88\ \<\ S*\ \<\ 5.8) between 10 and 20. These parameters have a significant influence on the internal pressure fluctuations, and this controlled\ full-scale\ study carried out for the first time provides data for validating analytical and\ model-scale\ studies on internal pressure fluctuations in buildings.

}, keywords = {Full-scale, Helmholtz resonance, Inertial coefficient, Internal pressure, Loss coefficient, Low-rise buildings, Single opening}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2019.03.024}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167610518310304}, author = {Humphreys, M and John Ginger and David Henderson} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6164, title = {Investigation of spotting and intrinsic fire dynamics using a coupled atmosphere-fire modelling framework}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, school = {University of New South Wales}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Large plume-driven wild res are among the most destructive and unpredictable of all natural hazards. A prerequisite for the development of the deep convection characteristic of these res is the existence of a large area of active aming, also known as deep aming. There are a number of processes associated with the development of deep aming; many involve some form of dynamic re behaviour, in which dramatic changes in re behaviour can occur with little or no change in ambient conditions. Another important driver of deep aming is intense spotting and spot- re coalescence, which itself involves dynamic re behaviour. It is difficult to model dynamic re behaviour in a computationally efficient way; it cannot be modelled with existing operational re-spread models. This thesis is concerned with the modelling of dynamic re behaviour, and the modelling of ember transport in turbulent plumes. A coupled atmosphere framework is used to model junction res (the merging of two separate relines at an acute angle), and the fundamental processes causing the asociated dynamic behaviour are identi ed. The idea that reline curvature can act as a proxy for some of the processes underlying dynamic re behaviour is critically examined, and rejected. A recently-developed simple coupled model, the pyrogenic-potential model, is discussed. It is found to produce results comparable with that of a coupled atmosphere\ model in simple test cases involving the ignition of res along circular arcs. The\ pyrogenic-potential model can capture some forms of dynamic behaviour, and is\ efficient enough to be used operationally.\ To study ember transport in turbulent plumes, a large eddy model is used to simulate\ the plume from a static heat source, and the resulting wind eld is used to\ model the transport of embers under various assumptions. It is shown that the\ terminal-velocity assumption, in which embers are assumed to always move at their\ terminal velocity with respect to the wind eld, leads to an overestimate of emberlanding\ densities at medium to long ranges. This has important implications for\ the stochastic modelling of spot- re development.

}, keywords = {bushfire dynamics, bushfires, Fire, fire modelling, framework, spotting}, author = {Thomas, C. M.} } @article {bnh-5569, title = {Long-term solutions to improve emergency management services in remote communities in northern Australia}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Despite frequent exposure to bushfires, cyclones and floods, remote Indigenous communities across northern Australia typically have little involvement in managing, mitigating or planning for such events. This scenario planning project explored how people in remote communities, through Indigenous ranger groups, can contribute effectively to the mitigation and delivery of emergency services. This research revealed the importance of developing effective partnerships between emergency management agencies and members of remote communities to integrate and assess the resources and services needed for responsible agencies in the Northern Territory. Using three remote communities as case studies, the potential engagement opportunities with ranger groups was explored to identify solutions to deliver efficient, cost-effective and culturally appropriate emergency services. A collaborative policy framework involving emergency services organisations and Indigenous communities is proposed to mitigate and manage incidents while meeting Indigenous cultural protocols. This recognises and takes advantage of community networks and knowledge of local socio-cultural and natural systems. This research offers practical insights into the delivery of cost-effective and improved emergency services to empower north Australian remote communities.

}, keywords = {communities, Emergence Management, northern Australia, readiness}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-long-term-solutions-to-improve-emergency-management-services-in-remote-communities-in-northern-australia/}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-5493, title = {Managing animals in disasters (MAiD) - improving preparedness, response and resilience through individual and organisational collaboration: Final Report 2017}, number = {476}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Managing Animals in Disasters (MAiD) project was a three-year research project focusing on the challenges for end users, stakeholders, and community members in preparing for, planning for, and responding to the needs of animals in emergencies. The aim of the project was to identify and build best practice approaches to animal emergency management (AEM) to enable engagement with animal owners and other stakeholders in disasters and emergencies.

}, keywords = {animals, Disaster management, Fire, Natural hazards}, author = {Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-6108, title = {Mapping approaches to community engagement for preparedness in Australia - final report}, number = {515}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Community preparation in disaster response has been empirically established as a key factor in the protection of life during a disaster. Natural disasters, especially bushfires, have provided evidence showing that there is a pervasive lack of preparation (King \& Goudie 2006; Martins, Nigg, Louis-Charles \& Kendra, 2019; McLennan 2014; McLennan et al. 2011; Pinock, 2007; Teague, McLeod \& Pascoe 2010) even in communities with previous disaster experience (Mackie, McLennan \& Wright 2013; McLennan, Paton \& Wright 2015). Agencies and researchers have also reported the struggle to get people motivated to prepare (McLennan, Elliott \& Omodei 2012), and to understand what needs to be done as part of that preparation. A number of community engagement programs have been successful and have been estimated to save lives and reduce the cost of property damage and destruction (Gilbert, 2007).\  At a higher level, community engagement is also considered central to development of community resilience in disaster (Council of Australian Governments 2011).

Consultation with agencies regarding this BNHCRC project application revealed gaps in emergency agency community engagement knowledge and practice. Specifically:

Therefore, these needs frame both the priority and urgency of this project and the potential to contribute to agency and local council action. Agencies have also articulated community engagement as a priority and, in many states in Australia, are making efforts to systemise community engagement and evaluation of its effect (such as Elsworth et al. 2010; Emergency Management Victoria 2017; Inspector-General of Emergency Management 2014). This project addresses this need by developing an empirical framework - built from a systematic literature review of effective preparedness actions, a systematic literature review of community engagement for preparedness, and a synthesis of agency best practices - that offers a systematic and evidence-based standard for agency implementation for community disaster preparation. The framework, and the associated index of core competencies and relationship indices, could also contribute to informing a more sustainable community engagement policy.

This project will consider the more immediate need for community engagement by emergency end-user/agencies for preparedness, which occurs annually, rather than for resilience, which is longer term and involves cross-government involvement including from outside the emergency management sphere.

}, keywords = {Australia, community engagement, community preparedness, Multi-hazard}, issn = {515}, author = {Kim Johnston and Barbara Ryan and Maureen Taylor} } @article {bnh-5430, title = {Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {462}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {
Understanding and predicting fire behaviour is a priority for fire services, land managers and sometimes individual businesses and residents. This is an\ enormous scientific challenge given bushfires are complex phenomena, with\ their behaviour and resultant severity driven\ by\ complicated interactions\ among living and dead vegetation, topography and weather conditions.\ A good understanding of fire risk across the landscape is critical in preparing\ and responding to bushfire events and managing fire regimes, and remote\ sensing data will enhance this understanding. However, the vast array of spatial\ data sources available is not being used ve\ ry effectively in fire management.\ This project uses remote sensing observations\ to\ produce spatial information on\ fire hazard and impacts needed by planners, land managers and emergency\ services\ to effectively manage fire at landscape scales. The group works\ closely with ACT Parks and Conservation Service and agencies beyond the\ ACT to better understand their procedures and information needs, comparing\ these with the spatial data and mapping methods that are readily available,\ and developing the next generation of mapping technologies to help them\ prepare and respond to bushfires.
}, keywords = {Bushfire, fire impacts, hazards, mapping fire}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-5928, title = {Mapping bushfire hazards and impacts annual report 2018-2019}, number = {511}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report is the output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC (BNHCRC), Project A1 {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It summarises the project objectives, introduces the team members as well as documents the project progress and outcomes during the financial year 2018/2019.

During this financial year we have:

  1. Worked on a comprehensive characterization of fire risk conditions through the integration of fire weather, dead Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) and total biomass into the Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS);
  2. Worked on AFMS website version 3 that incorporated feedback on the trial utilisation of the data service;
  3. Evaluated the feasibility and benefits of the operational use of alternative satellite data in AFMS to ensure long-term data continuity;
  4. Coupled a process-based model that simulates litter fuel moisture and a distributed biophysical model (the Australian Water Resources Assessment system Landscape model) to predict dead fuel moisture content;
  5. Published six journal manuscripts, seventeen conference abstracts and one milestone reports with another one in preparation. We have also had eight appearances in the media;
  6. Hosted two international exchange visits and were approached by more than 30 domestic and international applicants for a PhD scholarship or postdoc position in bushfire research; and
  7. Submitted an application for utilisation funds from the BNHCRC to develop a high-resolution prototype version of AFMS.

Over the next year (2019-2020), this research project will focus on finishing the analysis on the fire risk index as well as using remote sensing data to derive spatial and temporal explicit fuel accumulation curves. In terms of utilization, we will liaise with Geoscience Australia (GA) on transitioning the AFMS as GA has agreed to be in charge of the long term operationalization and maintenance.

}, keywords = {bushfires, fire behavior, fire impacts, hazards, impacts, mapping}, issn = {511}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Li Zhao and Honghao Zeng} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5777, title = {Methods for background temperature estimation in the context of active fire detection}, volume = {Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, school = {RMIT University and the University of Twente}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire is one of the most important ecological drivers on the planet. Whilst its initial impacts upon the environment are seemingly destructive, fire also plays an important role in the functioning and regeneration of ecosystems, along with providing a catalyst for changes to ecosystem successional processes. With this in mind,\ finding methods to efficiently measure and monitor\ wildfire is of vital importance. Information about fire in the environment can assist\ in mitigation planning and asset management for fire authorities, assists in the minimisation\ of fire impacts on human lives and communities, and of course can help\ to address problems such as carbon accounting and ecosystem impacts of fire. This thesis addresses four research questions, the current accepted method of background temperature estimation imagery and presents a new method of temperature estimation.\ 

}, keywords = {estimation, temperature, Wildfire; Community safety; Risk perception; Mitigation; Decision making}, author = {Bryan Hally} } @article {bnh-5804, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {507}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project titled {\textquotedblleft}Mitigating the Effects of Severe Fires, Floods and Heatwaves through the Improvements of Land Dryness Measures and Forecasts{\textquotedblright} examines the use of detailed land surface models,
satellite measurements and ground-based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. This project will address a fundamental limitation in our ability to prepare for fires, floods and heatwaves and is directly
linked to pre-event planning as well as forecasting of events.

Currently landscape dryness is estimated in Australia using simple empirical models developed in the 1960{\textquoteright}s. The most prominent of those used in Australia are the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI; Keetch \& Byram 1968) and the Soil Dryness Index (SDI; Mount 1972). An initial study performed as part of this project suggest that analyses of soil moisture can be improved by using physically based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation. The project has developed a stand-alone prototype land surface modelling system to produce daily soil moisture analyses at 5km resolution and at 4 soil layers. Verification against ground-based soil moisture observations show that this prototype system is significantly more skilful than both KBDI and SDI.

The present report documents the activities undertaken in 2018-2019. A major focus for the year has been on the downscaling of soil moisture from the JASMIN system, enhancing the spatial resolution from 5 km to 1km. Applications like fire danger mapping may require soil moisture information at higher spatial resolution due to the large spatial variability of soil moisture in the landscape. Another major outcome from the project during this year was the publication of a peerreviewed paper in the highly regarded Agriculture and Forest Meteorology journal.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fires, Floods, Forecasting, heatwaves, land dryness}, issn = {507}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Paul Fox-Hughes and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @article {bnh-6333, title = {Model for assessing the vulnerability of Australian housing to windstorms - VAWS}, number = {529}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Modelling the vulnerability of houses in windstorms is important for insurance pricing, policy-making, and emergency management. Models for Australian house types have been developed since the 1970s, and have ranged from empirical models to more advanced reliability based structural engineering models, which provide estimates of damage for a range of wind speeds of interest. This report describes the development of a software program: Vulnerability and Adaption to Wind Simulation (VAWS), which uses probability based reliability analysis and structural engineering for the loading and response coupled with an extensive test database and field damage assessments to calculate the damage experienced by selected Australian house types.\ \ 

}, keywords = {building resilience, cyclone, Emergency management, engineering, severe wind, wind modelling}, issn = {529}, author = {Korah Parackal and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and John Ginger and David Henderson and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-5619, title = {Modelling emissions from prescribed burning using FULLCAM}, number = {479}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM) is a software tool developed by the Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy as a standard method for carbon accounting. It is primarily used as a means to report national\ greenhouse gas dynamics from the land sector due to anthropogenic activities. This\ study assessed the accuracy and usefulness of FullCAM in determining the mass of carbon (C) emissions produced from prescribed burning. FullCAM proved to be a simple and reasonably reliable method for estimating C emissions from prescribed burning activities and for tracking recovery of C pools related to forest ecosystems. In addition, C emissions from different prescribed burning scenarios and from wildfire can be easily compared. The FullCAM model can be used by land managers as a means to manage an important aspect of risk associated with planned burning. If land managers are required to perform C accounting activities in the future, the adoption of FullCAM will enable them to be compatible with the national standard of carbon accounting.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, emissions, FullCAM, modelling, Prescribed burning}, issn = {479}, author = {Senani Karunaratne and Malcolm Possell and David Pepper and Bell, Tina} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6113, title = {Modelling the impact of lifeline infrastructure failure during natural hazard events}, year = {2019}, school = {Macquarie University}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

This thesis utilises mathematical graph theory tools alongside natural hazard modelling to analyse and quantify the extent of lifeline disruption during natural hazard events and the flow on effects of service failure. A future eruption of Mount Fuji in Japan is used as the major case study scenario to assess the usefulness of graph theory techniques in aiding disaster mitigation, emergency response and community recovery. In particular graph theory was used to assess the impacts of ash fall on the evacuation plans for Yamanashi Prefecture with regards to a future 1707 Hoei type eruption. It was found that: Ash induced road closures have the potential to affect current evacuation plans for Yamanashi Prefecture, particularly for those residents who are set to evacuate at or after the onset of a future eruption. Ash fall accumulation on roads, even after a few hours from the onset of an eruption, can inhibit road use, resulting in long detours or the inability for residents to be able to evacuate unassisted. After the cessation of an eruption, ash fall can impact the return of evacuees to their homes by either blocking roads or damaging buildings, affecting safety. Evacuees will have to wait for roads to be cleared of ash, and buildings to be assessed for damage, before they are able to return. In an eruption scenario where wind conditions are predominantly westerly the current plan for residents to evacuate to the north east of Yamanashi prefecture is not advisable. Assigned host locations in the northeast would be impacted by ash fall themselves; adding additional pressure on these communities and potentially resulting in further evacuations. This scenario provided the opportunity to test graph theory techniques in natural hazard risk assessment and to demonstrate how graph theory can assist post event recovery in a real world context. Methods developed in this study can be used to further explore impacts of ash fall, or other volcanic phenomena, in other prefectures around Mount Fuji or other volcanoes throughout Japan. Moreover, these methods can be used to address the exposure and risk to lifelines from other natural hazard events or even to compare between them. The results of this thesis show that graph theory techniques, alongside Geographic Information Systems tools and hazard modelling, with an understanding of the use and vulnerability of particular lifelines, can help to envisage potential problems that could result from lifeline failure and aid in the process of recovery. Not only is it important to make lifeline infrastructure more resilient to disruption from future natural hazard shocks, there is also a need to increase resilience by preparing communities to cope with service outages. For true shared responsibility to occur, local governments and communities need to be better informed and prepared so they can cope with the absence of lifelines during a disaster. Collaboration between all stakeholders is required to bridge information gaps and to create holistic disaster scenarios in order to provide more realistic and accurate assessments of future natural hazard impacts

}, keywords = {critical infrastructure, disaster relief, Emergency management, impacts, lifelines, Natural hazards, networks, volcanos}, doi = {http://hdl.handle.net/1959.14/1268491}, url = {http://minerva.mq.edu.au:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:70865}, author = {Phillips, E} } @article {bnh-5376, title = {Modelling wind direction distributions using a diagnostic model in the context of probabilistic fire spread prediction}, journal = {Frontiers in Mechanical Engineering: Thermal and Mass Transport}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, abstract = {

With emerging research into the dynamics of extreme fire behaviour, it is increasingly important for wind models used in operational fire prediction to accurately capture areas of complex flow across rugged terrain. Additionally, the emergence of ensemble and stochastic modelling frameworks has led to the discussion of uncertainty in fire prediction. To capture the uncertainty of modelled fire outputs, it is necessary to recast uncertain inputs in probabilistic terms.\ 

WindNinja is the diagnostic wind model currently applied within a number of operational fire prediction frameworks across the world. For computational efficiency, allowing for real-time or faster than real-time prediction, the physical equations governing wind flow across complex terrain are often simplified. The model has a number of well documented limitations, for instance, it is known to perform least well on leeward slopes. This study first aims to understand these limitations in a probabilistic context by comparing individual deterministic predictions to observed distributions of wind direction. Secondly, a novel application of the deterministic WindNinja model is presented and shown to enable prediction of wind direction distributions that capture some of the variability of complex wind flow.\ 

Recasting wind fields in terms of probability distributions enables better understanding of variability across the landscape, and provides the probabilistic information required to capture uncertainty through ensemble or stochastic fire modelling. The comparisons detailed in this study indicate the potential for WindNinja to predict multimodal wind direction distributions that represent complex wind behaviours, including recirculation regions on leeward slopes. However, the limitations of using deterministic models within probabilistic frameworks are also highlighted. To enhance fire prediction and better understand uncertainty, it is recommended that statistical approaches also be developed to complement existing physics-based deterministic wind models.

}, keywords = {complex terrain, deterministic, ensemble modelling, Probability distributions, uncertainty, von Mises, wind modelling, WindNinja}, doi = {10.3389/fmech.2019.00005}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmech.2019.00005/abstract}, author = {Rachael Quill and Jason J. Sharples and Natalie Wagenbrenner and Leesa Sidhu and Jason Forthofer} } @article {bnh-6035, title = {Monitoring, evaluation and learning toolkit}, number = {517}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This toolkit builds on National Strategy for Disaster Resilience: Community Engagement Framework Handbook 6 (Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience, 2013) by providing details of:

The model travels through a series of levels of community engagement planning and implementation, which helps practitioners to map and undertake the best community engagement approach for a specific community.

The base articles used to build the suite of techniques were found during a systematic literature review of preparedness activity. A systematic literature review is a rigorous, procedural approach to drawing out all available literature on a topic.\  The value of a systematic literature review is that it provides a wide-ranging view of the accessible knowledge around a topic. Articles were included based on whether they measured impact of engagement techniques (such as preparedness levels, lives saved), and the quality of the research. The full list of articles can be found in the references section.

}, keywords = {community engagement, Emergency management, Evaluation, monitoring}, issn = {517}, author = {Maureen Taylor and Kim Johnston and Barbara Ryan} } @article {bnh-5685, title = {Multi-scaled calibration of high-resolution burnt area and fire severity mapping - workshop report}, number = {483}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Many remote Indigenous communities in the tropical savannas of northern Australia reply upon {\textquotedblleft}Savanna Burning{\textquotedblright} methods, as payment for ecosystem services, providing employment and supporting their livelihoods. The methods rely upon accurate science to calculate greenhouse gas emissions. The current methods use fire seasonality to discriminate emissions estimates, whereas fire severity, if mapped with adequate accuracy, will provide a greenhouse gas emissions method more appropriate to customary burning, by advantaging low severity fires, that has the added advantage of being of overall benefit to biodiversity.
In November 2018, we brought an international group of remote sensing scientists together to develop a collaborative program to increase the spatial resolution of current burnt area mapping programs and incorporate fire severity within them. This report firstly outlines the requirements for the products and summarises the findings of the workshop.

}, keywords = {Fire, Fire danger rating, fire severity mapping, multi-scale, workshop}, issn = {483}, author = {Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-6281, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes}, number = {525}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We have made significant progress in several areas of research over the past 12 months. This has included modelling of carbon emissions from prescribed fires using (a) regression modelling to couple the effect of prescribed fire on water and carbon at a catchment scale, and (b) FullCAM, a process-based model that can track carbon pools in forests systems. The latter is a readily accessible tool that has very good potential to be adopted by End User agencies when required to report on carbon emissions resulting from their efforts to manage fuels. A fuel condition model (the {\textquoteleft}litter triangle{\textquoteright}) detailing carbon load and fuel reduction has been developed for surface fuels in dry sclerophyll forest. This is an easy-to-use tool that can be used as a guide for estimating potential for carbon loss due to prescribed burning. We are in an exciting phase of End User utilisation and tangible uses for our research has been identified and are being pursued. Reporting on our progress has taken the form of milestone reports, bi-monthly newsletters directed towards our End Users, and presentations for local, national and international forums. We have endeavoured to meet regularly with our primary End User and have established collaborations with research groups such as CSIRO and local land managers from NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. Our vision for the next 12 months is to consolidate our research in the area of estimating carbon emissions from prescribed fires, modelling of carbon and water across the landscape for optimisation of planned burning and linking metrics describing combustion of surfaces fuels with fire severity.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fuel reduction, optimisation, planned burning, safety}, issn = {525}, author = {Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-5698, title = {Optimising post-disaster recovery interventions in Australia: annual project report 2018-19}, number = {488}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC }, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disasters in Australia are very costly, and often have devastating socio-economic effects on impacted communities.

In Victoria, we have sadly seen this first-hand. This year marked the 10th anniversary of the Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires (VIC BSB), which remains the most devastating modern-day bushfire our state has witnessed.\  From our fellow BNHCRC Beyond Bushfires researchers, we know that these fires have had profound measurable effects on the mental health of people living in the bushfire-hit areas, with disruptions to income {\textendash} the focus of our own research {\textendash} demonstrated to be a key contributing stressor.

Our pioneering research program explores the impact of a number of Australian natural disasters, including the VIC BSB, on disaster-hit individuals{\textquoteright} economic resilience. By analysing Australian 2006, 2011 and 2016 Census data, we determine whether their income levels were able to recover post disaster in the short and medium term, considering demographic factors and employment sectors.\  Through real-life case studies,\  our research helps illustrate how these events{\textemdash}of different types and scales{\textemdash}impact and ripple through communities and the broader economy over time.\ 

}, keywords = {Australia, communities, Emergency management, Multi-hazard, post-disaster recovery, recovery}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-5421, title = {Optimising post-disaster recovery interventions in Australia Annual Report 2017-18}, number = {456}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disasters in Australia are very costly, and often have devastating socio-economic effects on impacted communities.

Despite this, the economic impacts of natural disasters in Australia have often been overlooked in disaster management planning. A substantial problem is the inability to estimate the full economic impact {\textendash} both primary and secondary {\textendash} of natural disasters, considering all the affected sections of the economy.

The project aims to assist the Australian federal and state policymakers in building a more sustainable natural disaster recovery model. It investigates the sector-disaggregated economic effects of a number of natural disasters on affected individuals. Through these real-life case studies, the project helps illustrate how these event{\textemdash}of different types and scales{\textemdash}impact and ripple through communities and the broader economy over time. \ 

}, keywords = {emergency management., mulit-hazard, post-disaster, recovery}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @inbook {bnh-5412, title = {Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Perspectives and Challenges for the Built Environment in Australia}, booktitle = {Hurricane Risk}, volume = {1}, year = {2019}, pages = {199-214}, publisher = {Springer}, organization = {Springer}, address = {Cham}, abstract = {

With statistically significant trends suggesting that tropical cyclones are migrating poleward in the Southern Hemisphere, specifically in the South Pacific Ocean basin, it is important to review the current state of knowledge on poleward migrating tropical cyclone activity. Furthermore, given the potential impacts they may have on regions traditionally unaffected by tropical cyclones, review of current residential building practice in Australia is warranted. This chapter highlights the significance of the long-term poleward trends in the Southern Hemisphere and potential mechanisms that are driving the geographical shift. Residential building practice in cyclonic and non-cyclonic regions in Australia is discussed to address existing vulnerabilities and how they can lead to catastrophic impacts. Methods and tools to evaluate tropical cyclone risk as well as future research needs are then discussed in the context of adapting to and mitigating for tropical cyclone activity that may migrate poleward. Finally, the chapter concludes with a summary and some finishing thoughts about the advantages of forming multidisciplinary teams to address the grand challenge of disaster resilience in the built environment in Australia.

}, keywords = {hurricane, hurricane risk, risk, South Pacific Ocean basin}, isbn = {978-3-030-02401-7}, issn = {978-3-030-02402-4}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_10}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_10}, author = {Richard Krupar III and D. J. Smith} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6163, title = {The post disaster city: crisis politics and social change in community led earthquake recovery}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2017}, school = {RMIT University}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disasters are events of considerable disruption and disturbance. These destructive events rupture perceptions of normality, and in so doing, shed light on obscured and normalised aspects of society. While communities are commonly understood as first responders to disaster, this thesis presents research that deepens our understanding of how communities engage with recovery and how this influences forms of social and political change. In this context, I draw on critical geographies of crisis and hope to frame the potential that emerges from disruption to foster different forms of change. This involves an understanding of the complex dynamics of political and social change in response to disaster, as well as the inter-connected relationship between community led recovery and the actions of the state in responding to crisis. Through investigating this contestation and politicisation, I provide a rich empirical case study to ground the discourses and practices of a politics of crisis and hope at the everyday level.

To achieve this aim, this thesis documents the ongoing recovery of the city of Christchurch in Aotearoa New Zealand following a devastating series of earthquakes. The Canterbury earthquakes that struck in 2010 and 2011 sent shock waves throughout the city and wider region. Loss of life, injury and widespread damage to residential and commercial properties left the city struggling to move beyond the immediate needs for response and into long-term recovery and reconstruction. While the official recovery process has been characterised by a centralised approach to the social, economic and environmental facets of urban disaster recovery, the actions of community organisations and networks have revealed a wider role for citizen participation and engagement. I employ a post-structural methodology to analyse the role of these community organisations in contributing to social and political change in Christchurch, both through official government processes and through autonomous, and potentially radical, projects of co-creation and experimentation.

The findings of this research present a compelling argument for the important role of community led action in shaping diverse forms of disaster recovery, despite the foreclosure of many formal avenues for participation by a centralised government approach. I draw on theories of exception and post politics to argue that the state crafted a political approach to recovery characterised by a discursive and ideological entrenchment of exceptionality and selective de-politicisation. Crucially, I demonstrate how the opportunities facilitated by the rupture of disaster also provide the grounds for possibility and experimentation that challenge this apparent hegemony of neoliberal governance, while creatively and constructively creating alternative forms of society and economy.

The approach of community led recovery thus renders incomplete the attempted foreclosure of democratic participation and provides radical forms of social and political change in the post-disaster landscape. Through the presentation of in-depth empirical evidence, the actions of community organisations and their integral role in producing hopeful manifestations of disaster recovery is highlighted. These forms of community led recovery represent an integral facet for more widely understanding the role of disaster in contesting and reconfiguring society and politics.

}, keywords = {communities, disaster studies, disasters, Emergency management, health and safety}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162124}, author = {Raven Cretney} } @article {bnh-6395, title = {The potential role of the commonwealth in responding to catastrophic disasters}, number = {530}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

he research question posed, and considered in this paper, is {\textquoteleft}in the absence of legislation, what is the role in, and more importantly what power might the Commonwealth have, when responding and recovering from a catastrophic disaster? Currently the Commonwealth has no overarching or specific counter-disaster legislation.\  This paper argues that even in the absence of legislation there is Commonwealth power to respond to emergencies within the areas of Commonwealth responsibility.\  Further there is an inherent power to deal with catastrophic disasters vested in the Crown as part of the prerogative power of the Crown and now incorporated into the Executive Power of the Commonwealth.\  Exactly what constitutes a {\textquoteleft}catastrophic disaster{\textquoteright} would be open to debate and, in the absence of legislation, may be the subject of judicial challenge. It is argued that a disaster where a state government is overwhelmed so that the state itself is at risk of collapse and there is no effective state government would be a national catastrophic disaster that would justify Commonwealth intervention in the affairs of the state in order to restore effective state government.\  What disaster, short of the collapse of state government, would be sufficient for direct Commonwealth action cannot be conclusively defined.\  \ 
In the absence of legislation and a truly catastrophic event, the Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s authority to exercise national leadership and coordinate Commonwealth, state and private assets will depend on good will and cooperation.\  The extent of the Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s executive power cannot be identified until the circumstances of the particular disaster have been identified.
Failing to define, in legislation, the role and power of the Commonwealth will leave the Commonwealth to {\textquoteleft}cope ugly{\textquoteright} with any particular catastrophe.\  That may be acceptable as it will leave the Commonwealth with adaptive flexibility. It has however been a consistent recommendation of commentators that the Commonwealth should legislate to ensure that the Commonwealth is able to cope with an inevitable catastrophe.\  \ 
The absence of legislation makes it impossible to define, except in the most generic terms, what the Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s powers are.

}, keywords = {Cascading Events, Collapse, Disaster management, Emergency management, Fire, hazards}, issn = {530}, author = {Michael Eburn and Cameron Moore and Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-5477, title = {A preliminary report on simulation of flows through canopies with varying atmospheric stability}, number = {469}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Large eddy simulation is performed for a flow through forest canopy applying various atmospheric stability conditions. The canopy is modelled as a horizontally homogenous region of aerodynamic drag with a leaf-area density (LAD) profile approximating the profile of a Scots pine tree. Varying atmospheric stability is incorporated into the simulation by applying varying heat flux in two different ways; (i) a surface heat flux prescription using Monin-Obukhov similarity functions and, (ii) a canopy heat flux model where heat from the canopy is modelled as distributed volume heat source. When the surface heat flux was prescribed, five stability classes: very unstable, unstable, neutral, stable and very stable are modelled while for canopy heat flux model three classes: stable, unstable and neutral are simulated for this study. We observe, realistically, that the stable and very stable velocity profiles are leaned towards right to neutral velocity profile indicating wind dominated flow. On the other hand, unstable and very unstable velocity profiles become more vertical indicating buoyancy dominated flow. In all velocity profiles, an inflection point is observed in the dense canopy region. Expected variations in the temperature profiles are also observed {\textendash} higher near-ground temperature for unstable and very unstable cases and converse is true for stable and very stable cases. Simulations involving exponential heat source variation vertically for forest canopy is ongoing for validation with experimental data and other similar studies. Once validation is obtained, parametric study with various atmospheric stability can be carried out in order to improve operational models. \ 

}, keywords = {atmospheric surface layer, forest canopy, thermal stratification, turbulence, turbulent kinetic energy}, author = {Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland and Jimmy Philip and Andrew Ooi and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-5807, title = {Preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia July 2003 to June 2017}, number = {506}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Introduction

On average, more than one fire-related death occurs in a residential context every week in Australia. That equates to approximately the same number of deaths as occurred during the Black Saturday bushfires (173) every three years. These deaths are overwhelmingly preventable. Deaths from residential fires have significant social, economic and emotional impacts on individuals, families, communities and also on the firefighters and other emergency service workers who attend these tragic incidents. The last published national study into residential fire fatalities in Australia was released in 2005 (Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC), 2005). The current study follows on from that report but looks in greater depth at who is most at risk. It provides fire services and other stakeholders with an analysis of preventable residential fire fatalities to inform evidence-based policy and practice to reduce the number of future deaths.

Aims

The aims of this study were to:

Methods

The methodology of this study is based primarily on the collection and analysis of coronial records from the National Coronial Information System (NCIS) database, supported by the analysis of publicly available Coronial reports. The NCIS database is an online facility storing coronial cases from all jurisdictions in Australia from 2000 onwards. To access the NCIS database ethics approvals were obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committees of Macquarie University and the Victorian Department of Justice and Regulation, from the Coroners Court of Victoria Research Committee and from the Western Australian Coronial Ethics Committee.\ 

Australian records from 1 July 2003 to 30 June 2017 were accessed in the NCIS by a\ variety of searches. After refinement of the applicable dataset, relevant structured\ and non-structured data from the NCIS (comprising the summary page, police,\ autopsy and toxicology reports and coroner{\textquoteright}s findings) were coded for 41 fields and\ entered into a specially constructed Microsoft (MS) Access database {\textendash} the\ Preventable Residential Fire Fatalities Database. Once complete, the data were\ exported to MS Excel tables and statistically analysed.\ \ 

Results/Discussion

Mortaility statistics

This study found that at least 900 people have died in preventable residential fires in\ Australia from July 2003 to June 2017, averaging approximately 64 deaths per year\ or more than one preventable residential fire death every week. This is a national\ death rate of approximately 0.29 per 100,000 population. The majority of deaths\ occur in single fatality incidents. Between 2003 and 2017 there was no clear\ declining trend in fire fatalities.

The results from this study highlight that the conceptualisation of fire fatality risk is\ complex. The presence of a single risk factor on its own is unlikely to significantly\ increase a person{\textquoteright}s risk of dying in a residential fire. It is the co-occurrence of a\ range of factors surrounding the person, their behaviours, their residential\ environment and other external factors that is likely to impact their overall level of
risk of having a fire that results in their death.

Fire services, individuals and other stakeholders can and should do more to reduce the rate of residential fire fatalities further, with an aim of reducing preventable residential fire deaths towards zero. Interventions to reduce the risk of residential fire for those most at risk of dying need to encompass both technological and human-centred approaches.

The residence and location

Free-standing houses/ villas were the housing type where the majority of fatal fires occurred (67.1\%). However, stand-alone houses comprise 78.4\% of housing stock in Australia, so other housing types may be over-represented in the fatality data. Similarly, owner occupiers were the most commonly identified property tenure (53\%), but owner occupiers account for approximately 67\% of all property tenures in
Australia (ABS, 2017). This indicates that other tenure types, such as private and public rentals, may be over-represented in fire fatalities.\ 

Geographically, most fatal residential fires occurred in major cities, but with regard to the death rate per 100,000 population, there was over-representation of deaths in regional and remote areas. The analysis of the fatality data in relation to areas of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD) (refer to pp.31-32 and Appendix 3) shows that most fatalities occurred in locations where there is relatively greater socio-economic disadvantage.\ Fatal preventable residential fires start most commonly in the living room/ lounge or\ bedroom. They are not necessarily large or severe fires, with approximately half of\ fatal fires burning one room or less of the structure.

Seasonality

The most common characteristics of residential fires that are fatal include that they\ occur mostly during the Australian winter months. They occur most commonly\ between hours of 8pm-8am and particularly from midnight-4am.

Smoke alarms

Smoke alarms are the most important residential fire safety device. They are required\ by law in residential properties in all Australian jurisdictions. For this study, data on\ smoke alarms was collected from the narrative parts of the NCIS database. In a\ large majority of cases (65.9\%), this information was not known. The extent that the\ presence of a smoke alarm was noted is low considering their importance, and
considering that the absence of a smoke alarm may have had an impact on the\ fatality outcome (e.g., by providing an earlier warning to the fire victim.)

The people

Single variable analysis from the current research found that those most at risk of\ dying in a preventable residential fire included:

By age cohort, people aged >=65 are the group most at risk of dying in a residential fire. In the >=65 cohort, the fatality rate increases with age; older age groups are more at risk. The data indicates that the other factors that increase risk in older people include smoking, having a disability, the presence in their blood of alcohol and/ or medications, living alone and requiring support to live at home. Where these
factors are present in combination, an older person{\textquoteright}s risk may increase significantly.\ 

The presence of a working smoke alarm may not provide early enough warning to enable older people to escape from a fire. This is an area that needs more research, but it indicates that there may be life-saving benefits if fire services and other stakeholders focus on increasing the uptake of specialist smoke alarms appropriate to the needs of older people.

The future fire fatality risk for older people is likely to be on an increasing trajectory due to a range of demographic and policy factors. These include an ageing population and this growing population of older people\ {\textquotedblleft}ageing in place{\textquotedblright} within their own home for longer.

Children aged 0-4 had the largest number of deaths of any 5 year age range. The cause of fire was more often lighters or matches (n=31), which may indicate that a significant number of fires were lit by children during fire-play. The link to social and financial disadvantage was particularly significant in this cohort, with almost half (48.6\%, n=34) of deaths in the 0-4 age bracket occurring in locations in the top 10\% of greatest socio-economic disadvantage, and 87.2\% of fatalities occurred in the top 40\% of locations of greatest disadvantage.

Fire safety interventions for this cohort need to be focused on increasing the basic home fire safety of families with young children, particularly in areas of social and financial disadvantage. Fire services and other stakeholders may consider interventions that partner with other services, such as maternal and child health services, to identify and reach those most at risk.

Within the fire fatality data, 46.7\% (n=420) of decedents were identified as having at least one disability present. Physical disabilities comprised 46.2\% of disabilities identified, while mental health and neurological disorders made up 27.8\% and 9.7\% of disabilities identified. People with a disability are likely to be over-represented in the fire fatality data. Mental health and neurological disorders are an identified risk factor for residential fire fatality. Similar to older people, there may be a lifesaving benefit in fire services and other stakeholders focusing on increasing the uptake of specialist smoke alarms appropriate to the needs of people with a disability.\ 

Some 8.2\% (n=57) of decedents were identified as Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander\ (TSI) or both. Approximately 3.3\% of the Australian population identify as Aboriginal\ or TSI (ABS, 2019a), meaning that this cohort are over-represented in the data by a\ factor of 2.5. Aboriginal/ TSI people comprised 12\% of fatalities under 65 years of age and 3\% of people over 65 years, likely reflecting the younger age structure of the\ Aboriginal and TSI population.

Smokers are over-represented to a large extent in residential fire fatalities. Of cases\ where the smoking status of the decedent was known (n=428), 65.4\% of people\ were smokers. During the study period, smoking rates in Australia decreased\ significantly, and reduced-fire-risk cigarettes were mandated in Australia in 2010. In\ the 2004/5 financial year 23.3\% of Australians were smokers. By 2014/15 this had
decreased to 15.5\%. The fatality data does not reflect any decline in the number of\ smokers who died over the course of the study period. It is unclear why this is the\ case.

Smoking materials are a major cause of ignition of fatal residential fires. For those cases where the fire cause was known, over a quarter (26.7\%, n=161) were caused by smoking materials (i.e., cigarettes, pipes etc), with just over a third of those (n=56) relating to smoking in bed. There was a strong link between smoking materials as the cause of fire and the residence being located in a relatively disadvantaged area,\ with 49\% of fires caused by smoking materials occurring in the top 25\% of most\ disadvantaged locations.

Recommendations

Fire services and other stakeholders may consider the following recommendations to reduce the incidence of preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia:

Conclusion

Preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia remain a significant public health problem, with an average of 64 fatalities each year. Deaths from residential fires have significant social, economic and emotional impacts on individuals, families, communities and also on the firefighters and other emergency service workers who attend these tragic incidents.

For the first time in over 14 years, this study provides an update on the evidence around the extent of preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia, those people most at risk and the details of fire incidents and residences where fatal fires have occurred. It provides a set of data that fire services and other stakeholders can use to develop evidence-based policy and practice to reduce the occurrence of fatal residential fires.

}, keywords = {Australia, Emergency management, Fatalities, Fire, metropolitan fire, MFB}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-3-3}, issn = {506}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and Geoff Kaandorp and Julie Harris and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Ashley Avci and Jacob Evans and Steve George and Andrew Gissing and Robin van den Honert and Katharine Haynes} } @article {bnh-6129, title = {Progress report on costing of limited ductile reinforced concrete buildings}, number = {520}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

{\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk{\textquotedblright} under the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) aims to develop knowledge to facilitate evidence-based informed decision making in relation to the need for seismic retrofitting, revision of codified design requirement, and insurance policy. Previous report has presented vulnerability assessment of two types of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings, RC buildings that are mainly supported laterally by limited ductile RC walls and buildings that are supported jointly by limited ductile RC walls and RC frames. The analyses demonstrate buildings that are jointly supported by RC walls and frames to be more vulnerable. This report presents summary findings of the vulnerability analyses along with descriptions for the types of damage observed for each performance levels with the aim of estimating cost of repair for this type of buildings.\ 

}, keywords = {buildings, concrete, emergency recovery, engineering, risk and safety}, issn = {520}, author = {Elisa Lumantarna and Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-5594, title = {Public health and natural hazards: new policies and preparedness initiatives developed from an Australian bushfire case study}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Objective: Public preparedness for natural hazard events is low. With worsening severe weather events due to climate change, public health policy and practices must evolve to more effectively engage communities. This study{\textquoteright}s findings identify and suggest new strategic public health policies to shift the practice of all-hazards preparedness into routine, everyday life.

Methods: Semi-structured interviews, focus groups and Thematic Analysis were used to investigate the interactions between participant groups: emergency responders and animal owners.

Results: Three policies designed to improve human safety and well-being are proposed and discussed. These are (i) a new system of workplace leave, (ii) an innovative regime of financial incentives for fire-ready properties, and (iii) review of the use of firebreaks on farms and rural blocks.

Conclusion: Policies proposed in this research aim to proactively narrow the awareness-preparedness gap and build adaptive capacity to minimise risk to human health in all-hazards contexts. Further research could evaluate the efficacy of trialled public policy.

Implications for public health: These new policies seek to contribute to establishing and maintaining a culture of preparedness as a routine aspect of everyday life, and thus promote and protect public health in the short, medium and long terms.

}, keywords = {animal owners, Bushfire, emergency responders, Preparedness, public health policy}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.12897}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1753-6405.12897}, author = {Rachel Westcott and Kevin Ronan and Hillary Bambrick and Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-5615, title = {Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Fire agencies are moving towards planning systems based on risk assessment; however, knowledge of the most effective way to quantify changes in risk to key values by application of prescribed fire is generally lacking. We present a quantification and inter-regional comparison of how risk to management values responds to variations in prescribed burning treatment rate. Fire simulations were run using the PHOENIX RapidFire fire behaviour simulator for two case study landscapes in interface zones in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia. A Bayesian network approach used these data to explore the influence of treatment and weather on risk from wildfire. Area burnt, length of powerline damaged and length of road damaged responded more strongly to treatment in the ACT than in Tasmania, whereas treatment mitigated house loss and life loss more strongly in Tasmania than the ACT. The effect of prescribed burning treatment rate on area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval was similar in each case study landscape. Our study shows that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by wildfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Climate change, trends, Wildfire, wildland fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18135}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18135}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-5833, title = {Recovery capitals: applying a community capitals framework to disaster recovery annual report 2018-2019}, number = {510}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Recovery Capitals (ReCap) project applies a Community Capitals lens to disaster recovery to increase understanding about the interacting influences of social, built, financial, political, human, cultural and natural capital on mental health and wellbeing outcomes. It will address the missing link between existing community resilience indicators and disaster resilience frameworks by providing evidence and resources to guide decision making customised to the community context.

ReCap has shown marked progress in the first year of operation under the current academic team by engaging a large team of end-user and stakeholder organisations who are actively involved in progressive decision making. Detailed evidence mapping against the community capitals framework has been undertaken using previous research conducted by the academic teams and collaborators.

The ReCap activity has enabled new collaborations, including the invitation to Professor Aldrich from Northeastern University and BNHCRC colleagues, Professor Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Farah Beani from Deakin University to join ReCap to address gaps in the evidence for cultural, political and financial capital. It has also enabled new collaborations and initiatives in Aotearoa New Zealand with Massey University, in partnership with the Wellington Emergency Management Office, Fire and Emergency New Zealand and the New Zealand Red Cross.

}, keywords = {communities, disasters, Emergency management, emergency recovery, recover}, issn = {510}, author = {Lisa Gibbs and Phoebe Quinn and David Johnston and Denise Blake and Emily Campbell and Kate Brady} } @article {bnh-5426, title = {Relicts at Risk: Impacts of the 2016 Tasmanian Fires on Pencil Pine (Athrotaxis Cupressoides)}, number = {459}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The main goal of this study is to obtain empirical measurements of fuel loads within the first year after a fire to complement the measurements of fuel loads taken directly before the fires.\  This will not only allow us to precisely quantify the fuel loads consumed by these relatively low-severity fires, but it will also give us a baseline measurement of fuel loads.\  We can use this baseline to anchor measurements of fuel accumulation in mature wet eucalypt forests that are part of related TERN and BNHCRC studies attempting to measure both the effects of climate and stand age on fuel accumulation in wet forests.\ 

}, keywords = {fire impacts, fire management, post-fire recover}, author = {Aimee Bliss and Lynda Prior and David Bowman} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5778, title = {Remote sensing of tree structure and biomass in north Australia mesic savanna}, volume = {Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, school = {Charles Darwin Unviersity}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The quantification of Above Ground Biomass (AGB) plays a major role in issues related to greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration, pertaining to global warming and the effects of climate change. In Eucalyptus miniata/tetrodonta dominated open-forest in Australia{\textquoteright}s northern tropical savanna, AGB mapping is challenging, due to the complex structure of the canopy stand, highly dynamic woody cover, vast spatial extent, vulnerability to climatic effects and the impacts of extensive fire.\ 

Remotely sensed data allow for the mapping, quantification and monitoring of AGB at various scales. Quantification of AGB in tropical savanna by common medium and coarse spatial resolution optical sensor data is inappropriate to monitor finer-grained ecological processes responsible for measuring carbon stocks at an individual tree level and are limited in detecting vertical vegetation structure. There is limited research on the utility of airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and alternative high resolution (\< 0.5 m) remote sensing tools for Australian savanna structural assessment. The main goal of this research is to evaluate the efficiency of small footprint airborne LiDAR and determine whether Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite stereo remote sensing data can be used to extract tree biophysical and vertical structural parameters for the purposes of accurately estimating biomass stocks in Australian mesic savannas.\ 

This study utilized a two-phase LiDAR analysis procedure integrating both Individual Tree Detection (ITC) and Area-Based Approaches (ABA) to better understand how the uncertainty of biomass estimation varies with scale. Regression analysis was applied on remote sensing data to develop biomass estimation models based on tree height allometry. This study demonstrated that where field-plot data are spatially limited, it is possible to use a hierarchical integration approach based on AGB uncertainty calculation and calibration to upscale AGB estimates from individual trees to broader landscapes.

}, keywords = {biomass, greenhouse gas, Lidar, northern Australia, remote sensing, tree structure}, url = {https://researchers.cdu.edu.au/en/studentTheses/remote-sensing-of-tree-structure-and-biomass-in-north-australia-m}, author = {Grigorijs Goldbergs} } @article {bnh-5745, title = {Restorative inquiries and natural disasters - symposium report}, number = {495}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In October 2016, the Policies Institutions and Governance of Natural Hazards research project released a discussion paper on {\textquoteleft}Learning for emergency services, looking for a new approach{\textquoteright}. As a result of feedback on that paper a forum was held to discuss the use of restorative practices in post event inquiries.
This forum, held at the Universtiy of Newcastle, identified that:

Communities and people need to be at the centre of the process. Those affected need to be involved in designing the process and taking responsibilities for implementing the learning. In traditional inquiries the inquiry decides what is important, makes meaning from the evidence and hands down its recommendations to others. It does not have responsibility to implement the recommendations and the findings may not be about what matters to those involved.

This report summarises the presentations and their findings to stimulate agencies and governments to think about alternative ways to conduct post event inquiries.

}, keywords = {communities, inquiries, Research utilisation}, issn = {495}, author = {Michael Eburn} } @article {bnh-5381, title = {Review of resilience assessment of coastal bridges to extreme wave-induced loads}, journal = {Engineering Structures}, volume = {185}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, chapter = {332}, abstract = {

Coastal bridges are susceptible to severe damage due to wave-induced forces during\ extreme events\ such as\ coastal flooding, hurricanes,\ storm surges\ and\ tsunamis. As a direct impact of\ climate change, the frequency and intensity of these events are also expected to increase in the future. This paper presents a comprehensive review of a four-phase resilience assessment of coastal\ bridge structures, namely, (i)\ characterization\ of external wave-induced forces, (ii)\ structural response\ of bridges, (iii) vulnerability assessment of damaged components, and (iv) post-disaster recovery. The four comprehensive modules are adopted from the classic framework of PEER PBEE and constitute the\ integrated knowledgeneeded for the prediction of the resilience of infrastructure under extreme wave-induced loads. The study also presents new expressions for resilience restoration that simultaneously account for the time, resources (cost) and\ environmental impacts\ of different recovery options with variable importance levels to different stakeholders.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.01.101}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141029618318194}, author = {Ismail Qeshta and Javad Hashemi and Rebecca Gravina and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-5772, title = {Risky business: Why diversity and inclusion matter}, number = {499}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Effective diversity and inclusion (D\&I) is at the heart of what emergency management organisations (EMOs) are and do. It is now clear that if they are not inclusive of the difference that diversity brings, they are placing at risk their organisations and the communities they work with.

Australian communities and the risks they face are changing. For the Emergency Management Sector (EMS), this emphasises the importance of building resilience and developing community partnerships. EMOs need to see themselves represented within the community and communities need to see themselves represented within EMOs. As a result, effective D\&I, which can support these activities, is starting to be seen as a core capability. There is also a growing recognition that if EMOs are to become agile, learning organisations who can effectively manage diversity and change, D\&I will need to move from a peripheral activity to a central focus. A clear message from this project is that the key to this is for EMOs to focus on developing an inclusive culture.

A key barrier to achieving effective D\&I is a limited understanding of how to join conceptual aspects of D\&I to practical application and tasks, and to use that to develop a set of focused activities capable of achieving their goals. Specifically, understanding why D\&I is important for core business and how it enhances service delivery {\textendash} particularly in lower levels of organisations. Without answers to these questions, it can be difficult to develop the strategies needed to support and guide the multiple areas of activity required to achieve a diverse and inclusive workforce.

The workshop {\textquoteleft}Into the future: building capabilities and skills for inclusive and diverse organisations{\textquoteright} held in December 2018 at Victoria University, aimed to explore these issues. In particular, it aimed to understand:

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity, inclusion}, isbn = {978-1-86272-807-3}, issn = {499}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5696, title = {The roles of pharmacists in disaster health management in natural and anthropogenic disasters}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, school = {Queensland University of Technology}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

This study investigated pharmacists{\textquoteright} roles in disasters and identified the acceptance and expectations of pharmacists throughout the different stages of a disaster. Taking an all-hazard and inclusive approach, this research included key stakeholders from international disaster and emergency management organisations as well as pharmacy organisations. Pharmacists{\textquoteright} skills and knowledge are typically underutilised in disasters and it was identified that their abilities extend beyond the traditional role of logistics and supply management. There are multiple practice areas in a disaster in which a pharmacist{\textquoteright}s expertise could be valuable in patient care, logistics, governance, and public health.

}, keywords = {Disaster management, disasters, Logistics, Patient care, Pharmacists, Preparedness, prevention, recovery, response, Roles}, url = {https://eprints.qut.edu.au/130757/}, author = {Kaitlyn Watson} } @article {bnh-5503, title = {Salivary cortisol profiles of on-call from home fire and emergency service personnel}, journal = {The International Journal on the Biology of Stress}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

Working on-call with a night call resulted in a depressed (lower) cortisol awakening response (CAR) peak and post-awakening cortisol area under the curve with respect to ground (AUCG) the following day compared to when off-call. This may be due to exposure to noise, physical exertion, and stressful events during night callouts. There was no anticipatory effect to working on-call in any of the cortisol measures examined. This study, of male fire and emergency service workers who operate on-call from home, had two aims: (1) examine CAR and diurnal cortisol profile following a night on-call with a call, on-call without a call, and off-call; and, (2) explore whether there is an anticipatory effect of working on-call from home on diurnal cortisol profiles. Participants wore activity monitors, completed sleep and work diaries and collected seven saliva samples a day (0 min, 30 min, 60 min, 3 h, 6 h, 9 h, and 12 h after final awakening) for one week. CAR peak, reactivity and area under the curve with respect to increase (AUCI), post-awakening cortisol AUCG, diurnal cortisol slope and AUCG, and mean 12-h cortisol concentrations were calculated. The final analysis included 26 participants for Aim 1 (22 off-call nights, 68 nights on-call without a call, and 20 nights on-call with a call) and 14 participants for Aim 2 (25 days leading up to a night off-call and 92 days leading up to a night on-call). Generalized estimating equations models were constructed for each variable of interest. Aim 1: CAR peak and post-awakening cortisol AUCG\ were 8.2 {\textpm} 3.4 nmol/L and 5.7 {\textpm} 2.4 units lower, respectively, following a night on-call with a call compared to an off-call night. Aim 2: the day before a night on-call was not a significant predictor in any model. The lower CAR peak and post-awakening cortisol AUCG\ following a night on-call with a call compared to following an off-call night may be due to exposure to noise, physical exertion, and stressful events during night callouts. The lack of difference between the day before a night on-call and the day before an off-call night suggests there may not be an anticipatory effect on cortisol when on-call from home.

}, keywords = {Cortisol awakening response (CAR), distal on-call, diurnal cortisol profile, firefighters, home call, state emergency service workers}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/10253890.2019.1584178}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/yDhRfifePuVq2Fxf8MCZ/full?target=10.1080\%2F10253890.2019.1584178\&}, author = {Sarah J Hall and Anne I. Turner and Sam J Robertson and Sally Ferguson and Brad Aisbett} } @article {bnh-5731, title = {Scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty and risk mitigation policy \& planning - final report}, number = {494}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the Final Report of the {\textquoteleft}RMPP project{\textquoteright} (Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning project), which addressed the use and utility of science and other forms of knowledge by natural hazard practitioners, and the pragmatic meaning these hold for their risk mitigation work. Natural hazard managers often expect, and are expected, to achieve outcomes by using scientific facts and rational problem-solving to increase certainty of decisions in the face of hazardous events (Funtowitcz and Ravetz, 2003). At the same time, the uncertainties of natural hazards means that this sector has always set different terms to the this {\textquoteleft}pipeline{\textquoteright} approach to the use science (also called the {\textquoteleft}linear model of scientific expertise{\textquoteright}). The ability of policymakers and practitioners to explain and justify risk mitigation and its evidence is compromised without greater insight into how science and other forms of knowledge are used in emergency management policy and practice. The sector does not receive the full range of information it requires, and continues to be vulnerable to the perpetuation of {\textquoteleft}myths{\textquoteright} about science, its use and its usefulness.

}, keywords = {fire impact, policy and planning, risk, scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty}, issn = {494}, author = {Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale and Liz Clarke} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5780, title = {The sensitivity of the empirical mode decomposition and its application on environmental data}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, school = {The University of New South Wales}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is a powerful data analysis method that can be used to extract embedded components within time series and other data. In the context of EMD, these embedded components are called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF). Since its inception in the late 1990s, EMD has been applied in a number of areas, including biomedicine, neuroscience, epidemiology, chemical engineering, finance, atmospheric turbulence, seismology and oceanography. The method is advantageous in that it is able to analyse nonlinear and non-stationary data. Surprisingly, the literature exploring the ability of EMD to analyse data with different types of non-stationarity is relatively sparse. Also, the sensitivities associated with the critical initial steps of the EMD procedure are not well understood. One of the critical steps in determining each of the IMFs involves constructing upper and lower envelopes of the local maxima and minima of the time series. In the original presentation of the EMD methodology, cubic-spline interpolation was used to construct these envelopes. However, there is now a prior reason to support the use of cubic splines, and it is natural to wonder how employing alternative interpolation methods might affect the ultimate outcome of the EMD method.This dissertation is dedicated to providing a more comprehensive understanding ofthe sensitivity of EMD to different interpolation methodologies, and to different types of data non-stationarity. These sensitivities are investigated systematically using synthetic time series data that cover a range of interesting features. In addition,a number of environmental data sets are used to explore how EMD sensitivity can influence the inferences that might be drawn from IMFs extracted using various forms of the EMD method. In this part of the study, temperature, sea level and forest fire danger rating time series are chosen. There is significant interest in the way these particular variables might be changing over various time scales, and how these changes might impact various ecosystems, including human societies. The analyses conducted in this thesis suggest that the robustness and accuracy of EMD is improved when smoothing-spline interpolation is employed as its underlying interpolation method. In particular, Smoothing Ensemble EMD (SEEMD) is introduced, and is shown to out-perform other EMD methods in a number of important contexts. Specifically, SEEMD is shown to be more robust in the presence of noise and is able to extract more meaningful features from the environmental times series. It is also found, however, that all EMD-based methods perform poorly when confronted with time series exhibiting abrupt non-stationarity.

}, keywords = {emergency management., empirical mode decomposition, environmental data, interpolation, sensitivity}, url = {https://www.unsworks.unsw.edu.au/primo-explore/fulldisplay?docid=unsworks_54791\&context=L\&vid=UNSWORKS\&lang=en_US\&search_scope=unsworks_search_scope\&adaptor=Local\%20Search\%20Engine\&tab=default_tab\&query=any,contains,the\%20sensitivity\%20of\%20the\%20empirica}, author = {Mona Ziaeyan Bahri} } @conference {bnh-5504, title = {Simulated transport of short-range embers in an idealised bushfire}, booktitle = {6th International Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

Mega-bushfires like the 2009 Black Saturday, Australia, the 2016 Fort McMurray fire, Canada, and the 2018 Carr fire, USA cause billions of dollars in damage and result in loss of life. The sources of ignition of the fires are often natural or accidental such as lightning, campfire, cigarette butts, or machinery and tools (Miller, Plucinski et al. 2017). The frequency of bushfires isset to increase due to the positive feedback effect of climate change (Jolly, Cochrane et al. 2015). There is an increasing trend of settlement of people at wildland-urban-interface (WUI) (Radeloff, Helmers et al. 2018) which increases the impact of bushfire. Accurate and quick prediction of the evacuation of communities and the behaviour of a bushfire will make a difference in reducing the impact of bushfire (Mell, McDermott et al. 2010, Ronchi, Gwynne et al. 2017).

}, keywords = {bushfire management, fire behavour. fire impacts, modeling}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332142658_Simulated_transport_of_short-range_embers_in_an_idealised_bushfire}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani and Khalid Moinuddin and Duncan Sutherland} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6247, title = {Simulation and analysis of surface wind fields during landfalling tropical cyclones}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, school = {University of Queensland}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are rotating atmospheric vortices characterised by high wind speeds thatpose a major threat to people and infrastructure in coastal communities. To minimise their impacts,the winds in the lowest part of the TC boundary layer (TCBL) must be adequately understood. Thisunderstanding enables engineers to make rational decisions around building design in these regionsand allows meteorologists to improve their forecasts. Of particular importance is how the TCBL ismodified when abrupt changes in surface terrain conditions occur, such as during landfall, which cansignificantly alter the physical structure of a TC. Although near-surface TC wind data has begun to becaptured through coordinated field campaigns in, for example, the USA and Australia, there is littleexplicit information on how the TCBL is modified during landfall or in the vicinity of other suddenchanges in land surface conditions. This thesis sets out to investigate this process through, 1) analysisof near-surface wind observations, and 2) numerical simulation of idealised TCs.To explore how near-surface turbulence is modified, the present study analysed observational TCwind records at measurement heights of 2.25 m, 3 m, 5 m, and 10 m collected during 11 TCs from theFlorida Coastal Monitoring Program (FCMP), StickNet, and the Surface Weather Information Relayand Logging network (SWIRLnet). These low-level records will be analysed to assess their turbulentcharacteristics and the response of these characteristics to sudden changes in land surface. Resultswere compared with traditional engineering models (AS/NZS1170.2, ESDU) predicting turbulencetransition in non-TC environments to assess their efficacy in TC environments. Results show thatturbulence statistics require about 2 km to reach equilibrium with the underlying terrain, independentof measurement height and upstream terrain. Engineering models tested were found to over predictturbulence intensities in a TC environment. A simple empirical model for estimating the transition ofturbulence intensity following a single change in terrain is proposed.Exploring more broadly how the mean TCBL structure is modified during TC landfall, this thesisalso uses hybrid real-idealised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical simulations toinvestigate the mean TCBL response during landfall. This numerical modelling method combines anidealised spun-up TC and a real world environment to undertake a series of parametric simulationswhere idealised TCs impact coastlines with a range of terrain conditions. These tests systematicallyexplore how sudden changes in terrain (e.g. sea to different land surfaces) influence bulk stormcharacteristics (e.g. TC size, radius of maximum wind), surface wind footprints, and vertical TCwind profiles in different parts of simulated TCs. Generated TC wind profiles are also compared withobservational dropsonde data as well as one existing analytical model. Increased surface roughnessover land was found not to deflect the TC track prior to landfall, but was shown to lower TC intensity.Increased surface roughness was also found to reduce maximum surface level wind speeds by up to70\% within 12 hours after TC landfall. Modelled TCBL profiles over water follow a logarithmic windprofile up to the height of maximum wind speed, which increases with TC radius. TCBL profiles overland also exhibit a logarithmic wind profile but wind speeds decay faster particularly closer to thesurface.

}, keywords = {building resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, severe storms, Simulation modelling, strong winds}, author = {Thomas Kloetzke} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6114, title = {Sprinkler systems for the protection of buildings from wildfire}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, school = {University of Wollongong}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Wollongong}, abstract = {

Wildfires pose a significant hazard in many residential areas around the world. Minimisation of the risk to human lives and property requires a multi-faceted approach, involving fuel reduction, fire suppression, and engineering measures to improve the resistance of buildings to the effects of intense radiant heat, burning embers and flame contact. Measures that are recommended to improve the wildfire resistance of buildings typically focus on building materials and design features, as well as fuel sources close to the building. Wildfire sprinkler systems are often promoted as an optional, additional risk-mitigation measure. Typically, such systems are designed to spray water on building external surfaces, surround the building with airborne droplets, and/or wet nearby fuel sources during wildfires.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Fire, fire management, sprinklers}, url = {https://ro.uow.edu.au/theses1/617/}, author = {Alan Green} } @article {bnh-6012, title = {State Emergency Service volunteer views on expectations, experiences and motivations}, number = {513}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In 2017, the University of Western Australia (UWA) began a research collaboration project with the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC), to investigate ways to improve the retention rates of their emergency service volunteers. The State Emergency Service (SES) volunteers are a vital community within Western Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency volunteering sector due to their profound work and assistance in times of natural disasters and other emergencies. As such, researchers from UWA (Patrick Dunlop, Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e}, and Djurre Holtrop have since relocated to Curtin University) have collaborated to develop and administer a Cultural Assessment Tool (CAT) in the form of an online survey. The purpose of this survey was to learn about the SES volunteering experience from the volunteers{\textquoteright} perspectives in order to obtain information on how to improve volunteer recruitment, retention, wellbeing, and diversity within the overall SES volunteering journey.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, research, state emergency service, survey, sustainable volunteering, volunteering}, issn = {513}, author = {Hawa Farid and Darja Kragt and Patrick Dunlop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Djurre Holtrop} } @article {bnh-5565, title = {Ten years after the Black Saturday fires, what have we learnt from post-fire research?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Ten years ago, 173 people lost their lives and more than 2000 homes were destroyed in the Black Saturday bushfires. The fires of 7 February 2009 led to a royal commission and significant changes to bushfire management throughout Australia. Research played an important role in the royal commission and subsequent changes. This paper reflects on what was learnt from research into human behaviour and community safety undertaken as part of the Bushfire CRC 2009 Victorian Bushfires Research Taskforce. The research involved interviews with over 600 householders and a mail survey of 1314 households affected by the fires. This paper reviews findings from subsequent post-fire research to consider the extent to which there have been changes in findings related to community planning, preparedness and responses to bushfire. The review suggests that many of the issues encountered on Black Saturday{\textemdash}limited awareness of and preparedness for bushfire risk, a tendency for leaving (or evacuating) at the last moment and a commitment to defending, even under the highest levels of fire danger{\textemdash}persist, despite major changes to policy and public messaging.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, bushfires, Emergency management, research}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-ten-years-after-the-black-saturday-fires-what-have-we-learnt-from-post-fire-research/}, author = {J Whittaker} } @article {bnh-5438, title = {Towards Protective Action: Effective Risk and Warning Communication during Natural Hazards Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {467}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {
This project plan draws on three years of interdisciplinary research and end-userengagement that derived evidence-based insights into risk and warning\ communication during the response and early recovery phases of natural\ hazards. The research (both completed and in-progress) examines existing and\ modified communication to community members and business owners\ that maybe affected by natural hazards. Our research findings have been shared with\ end-users through AFAC Committees, invited presentations, private meetings,\ conferences,\ workshops\ and translated into practice via audits of agency\ messages.\ The original BNHCRC project (2013-2017) focused on\ the pre-decisional\ processes of community members and business owners, particularly their\ exposure to, attention to, and comprehension of emergency warning messages\ in the response and early recovery phase of multiple hazards. This project (2017-2020) builds on that knowledge and focuses on how the inputs into the pre-decisional process\ {\textemdash}\ environmental cues, social cues, information sources,\ channel access and preference, warning messages and receiver\ characteristics\ {\textemdash}\ inform protective action during the response and early recovery\ phases of natural hazards.
}, keywords = {communications, Multi-hazard, Natural hazards, Warnings}, author = {Vivienne Tippett and Lisa Bradley and Paula Dootson and Dominique Greer and Amisha Mehta and Sophie Miller} } @article {bnh-5454, title = {Townsville 2019 flood: insights from the field}, number = {468}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Flooding impacted large areas of Townsville from Wednesday 30th January 2019, as a consequence of heavy rainfall across the north of Queensland. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) noted that 370mm of rain fell within 24 hours at Paluma near Townsville. Almost 3300 properties were damaged, thousands were asked to evacuate and there were widespread blackouts . The flooding came in waves, with the initial rainfall causing around 30 cm of flooding in the worst affected areas. This subsided somewhat before more rain fell in the catchment, necessitating the release of water from the Ross River Dam, which led to flood depths of up to 1.6 m over floor height.

Risk Frontiers and Insurance Council of Australia staff visited Townsville on 11th and 12th February, supported by a grant from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. The aim was to undertake unstructured interviews with residents and business operators to gain preliminary insights into impacts and responses to warnings and to examine initial recovery. In total, more than 20 residents and six business operators were spoken to. This briefing note highlights key preliminary themes that arose from this research.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Townsville floods}, author = {Andrew Gissing and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Salom{\'e} Hussein and Jacob Evans and Thomas Mortlock} } @article {bnh-5425, title = {Understanding Post-Fire Fuel Dynamics using Burnt Permanent Forest Plots Report}, number = {461}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The main goal of this study is to obtain empirical measurements of fuel loads within the first year after a fire to complement the measurements of fuel loads taken directly before the fires.\  This will not only allow us to precisely quantify the fuel loads consumed by these relatively low-severity fires, but it will also give us a baseline measurement of fuel loads.\  We can use this baseline to anchor measurements of fuel accumulation in mature wet eucalypt forests that are part of related TERN and BNHCRC studies attempting to measure both the effects of climate and stand age on fuel accumulation in wet forests.\ 

}, keywords = {ecology, ecosystems, Fire, Tasmanian fires}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-5686, title = {UNHaRMED framework report: a co-creation approach for the development and use of decision support systems for disaster risk reduction.}, number = {484}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report proposes a generic approach for the development and use of decision support systems (DSSs) for disaster risk reduction (DRR). At the core of the DSS is an integrated model, consisting of a land use model and risk models for four hazards, including flooding, coastal inundation, bushfire and earthquake. The inputs to these models are affected by a number of external drivers that change over time, including demographics, climate change and economics, as well as a number of mitigation options, including spatial planning, land management, structural measures and community-based resilience efforts. The outputs from the integrated model include risk maps for the individual hazards that change over time, as well as cost-benefit, social and environmental indicators used for assessing the impact of risk reduction portfolios.

}, keywords = {DDR, decision support system, Disaster management, framework, UNHaRMED}, issn = {484}, author = {Hedwig van Delden and Graeme Riddell and Roel Vanhout and Holger Maier and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy} } @article {bnh-5684, title = {Use of remote sensing measurements and data assimilation techniques to improve estimates of landscape dryness}, number = {482}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire intensity, spread rate and ignition are very sensitive to the fuel dryness which in turn is strongly linked to soil moisture deficit. Though the value of soil moisture deficit in predicting fire danger has been long established, very few fire danger rating systems employ a comprehensive methodology to estimate it. Most fire danger rating systems use very simple empirical water balance models which are found to have errors. Hence they are poor drivers of the sophisticated fire models used operationally to manage and warn for dangerous fire conditions and spread. With advances in the science of measurement, in the form of satellite remote sensing, and in prediction, in the form of physically based land surface models, soil moisture can now be better analysed and predicted. Neither observations nor models give a complete picture of the soil moisture state in isolation, however. Data assimilation combines observational and model information optimally, yielding increasingly consistent and complete estimates of soil moisture. In this paper, we touch on the various operational satellite observations available. We also discuss land surface
data assimilation methods used widely in soil moisture research and operations. This report is prepared for those with very limited technical and scientific background in satellite remote sensing or data assimilation. Hence complex mathematical and physical formulations are carefully omitted. However, the problems discussed here are highly non-trivial and inter-desciplinary, with much progress made in recent decades. Hence some technicalities are unavoidable. Also, the discussion is not intended to be complete. Our intention is to highlight, especially to the emergency management community, soil moisture estimation methods that may not be well known outside the scientific community.

}, keywords = {dryness, fire rate, fire spread, Landscape ecology, Soil moisture deficit}, issn = {482}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @article {bnh-5955, title = {The value of disaster research: a review of the literature}, number = {505}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Increasingly, funders, governments, stakeholders and end-users expect to see tangible evidence that an investment in research is a worthy use of resources; that it informs policy and practice; or to justify the provision of current and future funding. The value of research is measured by assessing the extent to which research has impact. Research impact is defined as {\textquotedblleft}a demonstrable contribution that research makes to the economy, society, culture, national security, public policy or services, health, the environment, or quality of life, beyond contributions to academia{\textquotedblright} (Alla et al.). These value-outcomes are achieved via the pathways of knowledge generation, capacity building, creation of scientific methods, researcher and end-user network collaborations, and policymaking support. Bushfire and natural hazard research evidence is utilised by emergency and fire agencies, governments, policymakers, and householders and landowners.

Research impact assessment is undertaken with the aim of addressing advocacy, analysis, accountability and allocation. It is also a valuable tool for use whilst planning research to ensure a greater impact. A major problem associated with research impact assessment is that of attribution: it is extremely difficult to assign causality for any outcome to a specific piece of research. This difficulty is exacerbated by the usually large time lag between research findings and policy impact, behaviour change, or change in environment or economy.

Various frameworks have been developed to assess the impact of research; whilst the majority of those reviewed were developed for the healthcare sector, there are more broad frameworks which have evolved to encompass a breadth of research areas and level of research. Impact has generally been categorised as economic (direct influence on the economy of the researcher, agency, population, or government as well as knowledge, market and network spill overs); academic (influence within academia, researcher and end-user collaborations, capacity building, training and leadership); and social or societal (a broad category including social values, national security, influence on policy and decision making).

Economic impact has largely been measured using cost-benefit analysis or a return on investment approach (including a social return on investment). Over the effect life cycle, public research is valued at 3 to 8 times the initial investment. Median annual rates of return are between 20\% and 50\% but this varies considerably between sectors. (Georghiou (2015)) . At an aggregate level, the return on investment in Australian disaster research has been estimated at between $1.17 to $1.40 for each dollar invested (Access Economics, 2003, Access Economics, 2008) . As most of the research within the natural hazard sector does not produce goods or services which pass through a market, a non-market method of valuing outcomes is required. The application of public value theory has created methodologies including public value mapping to understand the non-economic and non-scientific goals of research; that is, the core values (public values) of the research.

There is no specific framework for assessing the value of research in the bushfire and wildfire context, however adaptation of the {\textquotedblleft}pathways to research impact{\textquotedblright} tool created by Cruz Rivera et al. (2017) may be helpful in achieving appropriate impact measurement.\ 

}, keywords = {cost-effective, economics, Emergency management, Natural disasters, Policy, risk management}, issn = {505}, author = {Ken Strahan and Adriana Keating and John Handmer} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5695, title = {Valuing volunteers: better understanding the primary motives for volunteering in Australian emergency services}, volume = {Master of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, school = {University of Wollongong}, address = {Wollongong}, abstract = {

Volunteers are the lifeblood of emergency services in Australia, and are integral to the nation{\textquoteright}s emergency management capabilities and overall disaster resilience. The concurrence of an increase in the risks posed by a range of climate change-related natural hazards and a decline in formal volunteering rates threatens Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency preparedness.

The Valuing Volunteers Study aims to provide a better understanding of the primary motives for formal volunteering in Australian emergency services, and the broader contemporary influences on such important civic participation. The research aims to generate evidence-based outputs that inform policies and practices, with the ultimate goal of maximising the retention of emergency service volunteers.

}, keywords = {Community safety, Emergency management, emergency services, SES volunteers, volunteers}, url = {https://apo.org.au/node/244761}, author = {Bill Calcutt} } @article {bnh-5388, title = {The Vegetation Structure Perpendicular Index (VSPI): A forest condition index for wildlife predictions}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {224}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, chapter = {167}, abstract = {

Wildfires are a major\ natural hazard, causing substantial damage to infrastructure as well as being a risk to lives and homes. An understanding of their progression and behaviour is necessary to reduce risks and to develop operational management strategies in the event of an active fire. Many empirical fire-spread models have been developed to predict the spread and overall behaviour of a wildfire, based on a range of parameters such as weather and fuel conditions. However, these parameters may not be available with sufficient accuracy or spatiotemporal resolution to provide reliable fire spread predictions. Fuel condition data include variables such as vegetation quantity, structure and moisture content and, in the event of previous wildfires, the burn severity and stage of ecosystem recovery. In this study, an index called the\ Vegetation Structure\ Perpendicular Index (VSPI) is introduced. The VSPI utilises the short-wave infrared reflectance in bands centred at 1.6 and 2.2 μm, essentially representing the amount and structure of the vegetation{\textquoteright}s woody biomass (as opposed to the photosynthetic activity and moisture content). The VSPI is quantified as the divergence from a linear regression between the two bands in a time series and represents vegetation disturbance and recovery more reliably than indices such as the Normalised Burn Ratio (NBR) and\ Normalised Difference Vegetation Index\ (NDVI). The VSPI index generally shows minor inter-annual variability and stronger post-wildfire detection of disturbance over a longer period than NBR and\ NDVI. The index is developed and applied to major wildfire events within eucalypt forests throughout southern Australia to estimate both burn severity and time to recovery. The VSPI can provide an improved information layer for fire risk evaluation and operational predictions of wildfire behaviour.

}, keywords = {Forest condition, Landsat, Vegetation recovery, Wildfire spread}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.004}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425719300586?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Andrea Massetti and Christoph R{\"u}diger and Marta Yebra and James Hilton} } @article {bnh-5622, title = {Volunteering research in Australia: A narrative review}, journal = {Australian Journal of Psychology}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Australian research on volunteering is rich and diverse, but also increasingly fragmented. In an attempt to promote a more integrated study of volunteering, we review volunteering research conducted in Australia, using volunteering journey as a framework. Specifically, we summarise literature on volunteer characteristics, motivations, benefits, psychological contract, commitment, and withdrawal.

}, keywords = {benefits, motivation, narrative review, volunteer retention, volunteering, withdrawal}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1111/ajpy.12251}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajpy.12251}, author = {Darja Kragt and Djurre Holtrop} } @article {bnh-5478, title = {Walking together: a decolonising experiment in bushfire management on Dja Dja Wurrung country}, journal = {Cultural Geographies}, volume = {1}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, abstract = {

Within certain settler colonial nations, Indigenous peoples are increasingly becoming present and influential in the agencies legally responsible for the management of their ancestral territories, their environments and their hazards. On the Australian continent, for example, Aboriginal peoples are becoming more formally involved in the management of bushfire (or {\textquoteleft}wildfire{\textquoteright} elsewhere). This environmental phenomenon is at once of profound cultural significance to many Aboriginal peoples and a major natural hazard to human life and property, managed by an extensive professional bureaucracy of settler government agencies. Drawing upon a case study of collaborative bushfire management between Dja Dja Wurrung peoples and settler bushfire management agencies on Dja Dja Wurrung country (or, ancestral territory) in the southeast Australian state of Victoria, this article argues for an understanding of such collaborations as {\textquoteleft}decolonising experiments{\textquoteright}. For geographers and others, this means paying attention to the open-ended character of collaborative initiatives, whether and how they materially improve the position of Indigenous peoples, as well as whether and how they give rise to new resources and strategies for the creation of other decolonising futures.

}, keywords = {Australia, collaboration, environment, indigenous, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1474474018821419}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/eprint/qtacPrmvVqKUhMciuDJa/full}, author = {Timothy Neale and Rodney Carter and Trent Nelson and Mick Bourke} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6162, title = {Wellbeing of firefighters: the impact of individual factors, potentially traumatic event exposure, and operational and organisational factors on mental health outcomes}, volume = {Doctor of Psychiatry}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, school = {University of Melbourne}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Aims:
This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of the common mental health disorders associated with increased exposure to potentially traumatic events in career and volunteer firefighters, and to identify which individual, acute stressor, operational and organisational factors predict mental health outcomes.

Method: Four Australian services participated in a prospective study, with 335 firefighters completing an online survey twice (12-months apart). The survey comprised demographic and fire service information, self-report measures for PTSD, depression, anxiety, alcohol use, exposure to personal trauma and life stressors, number and types of firefighter-related potentially traumatic events experienced in the previous 12-months, job satisfaction related to operational and organisational characteristics of their role, and a measure of the priority their fire service placed on their psychological wellbeing. Structured clinical interviews were conducted with a sample of survey respondents to assess for PTSD, depression, generalised anxiety disorder and alcohol use disorder.

Results: From 297 clinical interviews (91 career firefighters and 206 volunteer firefighters), 24\% (n = 22) of the career firefighters met diagnosis for any psychiatric disorder. Of these, 3\% met criteria for PTSD, 5\% for depression, 4\% for generalised anxiety disorder, and almost 12\% for alcohol use disorder. The primary regression analyses indicated the following findings for the career firefighters. The main variable associated with each of the four disorders was the respective level of symptoms at baseline. In addition, exposure to more potentially traumatic events in the previous 12 months contributed to, and high job satisfaction associated with the operational aspects of their role protected them against the development of PTSD and depression. Finally, the findings indicated that experiencing more recent life events in the previous 12 months and rank (being a firefighter) contributed to more symptoms of Alcohol Use Disorder. From the interviews 17\% (n = 35) of the volunteer firefighters met diagnosis for any psychiatric disorder. Of these, 2\% met criteria for PTSD, 4\% for depression, 5\% for generalised anxiety disorder, and 6\% for alcohol use disorder. The primary regression analyses indicated that the only predictor of PTSD, generalised anxiety disorder and alcohol use disorder was the respective baseline level for each disorder. The main predictors of depression were baseline level of symptoms of depression and experiencing more recent life events in the previous 12 months.

Conclusions: The relatively low prevalence rates for the career and volunteer firefighters in this study indicate their reasonably good mental health across the four disorders. The rates compare favourably with other firefighter studies and are comparable with the rates in the general population for most disorders. An exception to this was volunteer firefighters{\textquoteright} high rate of alcohol dependence and low rate of PTSD. The findings indicate the importance of fire services developing cultures that support and encourage the early identification and management of symptoms and have systems in place to monitor the types of and frequency of firefighters{\textquoteright} exposure to potentially traumatic events. Finally, particularly for the career firefighters, the findings highlight the protective nature of high job satisfaction associated with operational characteristics of their role and reduced mental health symptoms, and the importance for firefighters and managers to recognise and address reductions in job satisfaction.

}, keywords = {career, firefighter, mental health, volunteer}, doi = {http://hdl.handle.net/11343/230671}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/230671}, author = {Heather Bancroft} } @article {bnh-5573, title = {What do we really mean by {\textquoteleft}floodwater{\textquoteright} and is it ever ok to enter?}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Flood safety messages used extensively and consistently in Australia are {\textquoteleft}If it{\textquoteright}s flooded, forget it{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Never drive, ride or walk through floodwater{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Don{\textquoteright}t play in flood water{\textquoteright}. These messages are clear, unambiguous and definitive. The problem is, people continue to enter floodwater.

In partnership with State Emergency Services across Australia, we are looking at flood risk communication and examining the two behaviours most closely linked to flood fatalities; driving into and recreating in floodwater. This is part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Flood Risk Communication research.

}, keywords = {communication, Emergency management, flood risk, floodwater}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-what-do-we-really-mean-by-floodwater-and-is-it-ever-ok-to-enter/}, author = {Mel Taylor and Katharine Haynes} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5690, title = {Approaches for investigating wildfire impacts on catchment hydrology}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, school = {The University of Sydney}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Wildfire has serious impacts on the hydrological cycle and water quality of forested catchments. Forested catchments are commonly used as an important source of drinking water supply in Australia and internationally. Monitoring short-term and long-term post-wildfire catchment hydrology (water quantity and quality) change is important for catchment management. Past studies are limited by data availability and method used. In this thesis, we firstly used empirical (linear mixed model and k-mean clustering) and physical-based hydrological model {\textendash} Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to detect the effect of wildfire on forested catchment hydrology and then built scenarios using physical-based model to investigate the cause of the catchment hydrology change and identify the wildfire sensitive areas in catchments for catchment protection. The case study used here is the 2001/2002 Sydney wildfire, 10 years of pre-wildfire and 10 years of post-wildfire water quantity and quality data were collected by WaterNSW and used in this study. We have successfully used linear mixed model and SWAT to detect the wildfire effect on catchment hydrology in the thesis. As a result, the empirical model observed a long-term (5 - 10 years) post-wildfire water quality change; this change is more considerable during post-wildfire event period. The result from physical-based hydrological models also indicated a long-term change in total suspended sediments concentration during post-wildfire period. In addition to the change detected. Our scenario in physical-based models also observed that post-wildfire soil carbon change has limited effect on catchment hydrology and vegetation change is the main cause of post-wildfire catchment hydrological change. Out models also suggested that sub-catchments with higher slope increases, shorter slope, and smaller soil top layer bulk density, clay, and carbon content, are the most wildfire sensitive areas and should be protected the most.

}, keywords = {soil and water assessment tool, soil carbon, TSS, water quality, Wildfire}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20565}, author = {Mengran Yu} } @article {bnh-5404, title = {Assessment of potentially toxic metal contamination in the soils of a legacy mine site in Central Victoria, Australia.}, journal = {Chemosphere}, volume = {192}, year = {2018}, abstract = {

The environmental impact of toxic metal contamination from legacy mining activities, many of which had operated and were closed prior to the enforcement of robust environmental legislation, is of growing concern to modern society. We have carried out analysis of As and potentially toxic metals (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in the surface soil of a legacy gold mining site in Maldon, Victoria, Australia, to reveal the status of the current metal concentration. The results revealed the median concentrations of metals from highest to lowest, in the order: Mn\ \>\ Zn\ \>\ As\ \>\ Cr\ \>\ Cu\ \>\ Pb\ \>\ Ni\ \>\ Co\ \>\ Hg\ \>\ Cd. The status of site was assessed directly by comparing the metal concentrations in the study area with known Australian and Victorian average top soil levels and the health investigation levels set by the National Environmental Protection Measures (NEPM) and the Department of Environment and Conservation (DEC) of the State of Western Australia. Although, median concentrations of As, Hg, Pb, Cu and Zn exceeded the average Australian and Victorian top soil concentrations, only As and Hg exceeded the ecological investigation levels (EIL) set by DEC and thus these metals are considered as risk to the human and aquatic ecosystems health due to their increase in concentration and toxicity. In an environment of climate fluctuation with increased storm events and forest fires may mobilize these toxic metals contaminants, pose a real threat to the environment and the community.

}, keywords = {Ecosystem health, Heavy metal pollution, Human health, Legacy mining issues, Soil pollution}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2017.10.150}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0045653517317356?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Joji Abraham and Kim Dowling and Singarayer Florentine} } @article {bnh-5394, title = {Crowdsourcing Methods for Data Collection in Geophysics: State of the Art, Issues, and Future Directions}, journal = {Reviews of Geophysics}, volume = {56}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, chapter = {698}, abstract = {

Data are essential in all areas of geophysics. They are used to better understand and manage systems, either directly or via models. Given the complexity and spatiotemporal variability of geophysical systems (e.g., precipitation), a lack of sufficient data is a perennial problem, which is exacerbated by various drivers, such as climate change and urbanization. In recent years, crowdsourcing has become increasingly prominent as a means of supplementing data obtained from more traditional sources, particularly due to its relatively low implementation cost and ability to increase the spatial and/or temporal resolution of data significantly. Given the proliferation of different crowdsourcing methods in geophysics and the promise they have shown, it is timely to assess the state of the art in this field, to identify potential issues and map out a way forward. In this paper, crowdsourcing-based data acquisition methods that have been used in seven domains of geophysics, including weather, precipitation, air pollution, geography, ecology, surface water, and natural hazard management, are discussed based on a review of 162 papers. In addition, a novel framework for categorizing these methods is introduced and applied to the methods used in the seven domains of geophysics considered in this review. This paper also features a review of 93 papers dealing with issues that are common to data acquisition methods in different domains of geophysics, including the management of crowdsourcing projects, data quality, data processing, and data privacy. In each of these areas, the current status is discussed and challenges and future directions are outlined.

}, keywords = {big data, categorisation, crowdsourcing, data collection, geophysics}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000616}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018RG000616}, author = {Feifei Zheng and Ruoling Tao and Holger Maier and Linda See and Dragan Savic and Tuqiao Zhang and Qiuwen Chang and Thaine H. Assump{\c c}{\~a}o and Pan Yang and Bardia Heidari and J{\"o}rg Rieckermann and Barbara Minsker and Weiwei Bi and Ximing Cai and Dimitri Solomatine and Ioana Popescu} } @article {bnh-5623, title = {Describing adaptation tipping points in coastal flood risk management}, journal = {Computers, Environment and Urban Systems}, volume = {69}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, abstract = {

Assessing changing coastal flood risk becomes increasingly uncertain across multi-decadal timeframes. This uncertainty is a fundamental complexity faced in\ vulnerability\ assessments and adaptation planning. Robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) are two\ state-of-the-artdecision support\ methods that are useful in such situations. In this study we use RDM to identify a small set of conditions that cause unacceptable impacts from\ coastal flooding, signifying that an adaptation tipping point is reached. Flexible adaptation pathways can then be designed using the DAPP framework. The methodology is illustrated using a case study in Australia and underpinned by a\ geographic information system\ model. The results suggest that conditions identified in scenario discovery direct the attention of decision-makers towards a small number of uncertainties most influential on the vulnerability of a community to changing flood patterns. This can facilitate targeted data collection and coastal\ monitoring activities\ when resources are scarce. Importantly, it can also be employed to illustrate more broadly how uncontrolled\ societal development, land use and historic building regulations might exacerbate flood impacts in low-lying urban areas. Notwithstanding the challenges that remain around\ simulation modelling and\ detection of\ environmental change, the results from our study suggest that RDM can be embedded within a DAPP framework to better plan for changing coastal flood risks.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Climate change, Inundation, Tipping point, uncertainty, Vulnerability}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2018.01.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0198971517304520}, author = {Timothy Ramm and Christopher Stephen Watson and Christopher J. White} } @article {bnh-5338, title = {Estimating Fire Background Temperature at a Geostationary Scale{\textemdash}An Evaluation of Contextual Methods for AHI-8}, journal = {Remote Sensing }, volume = {10}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, chapter = {1368}, abstract = {

An integral part of any remotely sensed fire detection and attribution method is an estimation of the target pixel{\textquoteright}s background temperature. This temperature cannot be measured directly independent of fire radiation, so indirect methods must be used to create an estimate of this background value. The most commonly used method of background temperature estimation is through derivation from the surrounding obscuration-free pixels available in the same image, in a contextual estimation process. This method of contextual estimation performs well in cloud-free conditions and in areas with homogeneous landscape characteristics, but increasingly complex sets of rules are required when contextual coverage is not optimal. The effects of alterations to the search radius and sample size on the accuracy of contextually derived brightness temperature are heretofore unexplored. This study makes use of imagery from the AHI-8 geostationary satellite to examine contextual estimators for deriving background temperature, at a range of contextual window sizes and percentages of valid contextual information. Results show that while contextual estimation provides accurate temperatures for pixels with no contextual obscuration, significant deterioration of results occurs when even a small portion of the target pixel{\textquoteright}s surroundings are obscured. To maintain the temperature estimation accuracy, the use of no less than 65\% of a target pixel{\textquoteright}s total contextual coverage is recommended. The study also examines the use of expanding window sizes and their effect on temperature estimation. Results show that the accuracy of temperature estimation decreases significantly when expanding the examined window, with a 50\% increase in temperature variability when using a larger window size than\ 5{\texttimes}5pixels, whilst generally providing limited gains in the total number of temperature estimates (between 0.4\%{\textendash}4.4\% of all pixels examined). The work also presents a number of case study regions taken from the AHI-8 disk in more depth, and examines the causes of excess temperature variation over a range of topographic and land cover conditions.

}, keywords = {contextual methods, fire attribution, fire background temperature, geostationary sensors}, doi = {10.3390/rs10091368}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/9/1368}, author = {Bryan Hally and Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones and Chermelle Engel and Andrew Skidmore} } @conference {bnh-5396, title = {Evaluation of TanDEM-X and DEM-H digital elevation models over the Condamine-Balonne catchment}, booktitle = {Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (HWRS 2018): Water and Communities }, year = {2018}, month = {2018}, publisher = {Monash University }, organization = {Monash University }, abstract = {

A digital elevation model (DEM) is a three-dimensional representation of the Earth surface showing mountain peaks, valley floors, rivers and lakes. DEMs are an essential input for the application of environmental and flood models and, for large catchments,these datasets are produced using data collected by instruments on-board satellite missions. However, data collected from such techniques are inevitably affected by inaccuracies which have to be accurately understood and evaluated in order to allow the implementation of any numerical model. This study evaluated the accuracy of the recently released 12 m resolution TanDEM-X (German Aerospace Center) and the widely used 30 m resolution DEM-H (Geoscience Australia). One of the most important sources of inaccuracy in satellite-derived DEMs is a dense vegetation canopy. This problem is particularly important in dryland catchments, where vegetation is not uniformly distributed across the landscape but often concentrates along the river corridors. The Condamine-Balonne catchment, a low-gradient dryland area in Queensland, offers a representative case study. Satellite-derived DEMs were compared with more than 600 ground control points, three LiDAR datasets, and over 60 ground measured river cross sections. This analysis allowed the evaluation of the capability of the satellite-derived DEMs to reproduce (i) surface elevation at the point scale, (ii) river channels and floodplain morphology, and (iii) catchment slope along the river network. TanDEM-X performed better at the point scale and in transects with sparse vegetation resulting in Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) values respectively 0.30 m and 0.12 m lower than the DEM-H. However, TanDEM-X was affected by large errors in densely vegetated areas. Moreover, the enforcement of hydrological connectivity is required. This analysis offers useful insight for the application of TanDEM-X and DEM-H data for environmental and flood modelling in the Condamine-Balonne catchment and in similar dryland areas.

}, keywords = {condamine-balonne, hydrology, resource, water}, isbn = {9781925627183}, url = {https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=134740719984631;res=IELENG}, author = {Ankun Wang and Stefania Grimaldi and Saif Shaadman and Yuan Li and Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6159, title = {The impact of bushfires on water quality}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy }, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, school = {RMIT}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Population growth in urban areas leads to a higher demand in water use. Quality of water is an important factor not only from an aesthetic view, but also for ecological health purposes.

This paper presented research that is designed to develop a spatial approach to support the planning of the water quality in the areas subjected to bushfires, using a case study from state of Victoria. In particular, this research involved the implementation of a hydrological model in order to predict the river water quality, to assist in the decision-making process. The impact of bushfires on water quality can be highly variable for the most of the individual water quality parametres. This variability is caused by a number of landscape influences and climatic factors, most notably rainfall. High magnitude and intense rainfall events soon after fire generate the largest impacts on water quality and sometimes trigger extreme erosion events.

There are many important water quality parameters that must be taken into account when the water is delivered to the population. For some of the water quality parameters there is very little information available, which makes it difficult to draw conclusions about bushfire impacts. The monitoring campaigns are very expensive, and better options are the modeling tools.
The model used in this research is eWater, a conceptual, semi-distributed model, which applies the flow accumulation principles. eWater Source - Australia{\textquoteright}s National Hydrological Modelling Platform (NHMP) {\textendash} is developed by eWater CRC, Australia. It is designed to simulate all aspects of water resource systems to support integrated planning, operations and governance from urban, catchment to river basin scales including human and ecological influences.

The catchment analyzed can be divided into sub-catchments and functional units. The model integrates rainfall runoff, constituent generation and filter models, which are parameterized. The user must find the best set of parameters that is suitable for that catchment. After calibration and validation, the model can be used in the same catchment for any period of time, and it will be able to predict the pollution levels in the catchment, with a good accuracy. Also, a user can follow the same steps, to calibrate the model for any other catchment. This method is time consuming, but it doesn{\textquoteright}t require many input data.The fires and the rain are classified in 3 classes each. Then, the landuse, the burnt areas and the areas with rain are combined and parameterized separately.

The outputs from the developed model are good correlated with the measured data, and show higher concentrations of suspended sediment and nutrients after bushfire followed by rain. To improve the model performance, the measured water quality data must be daily data with a better accuracy.

}, keywords = {bushfires, modeling, water pollution, water quality}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162351}, author = {graducan} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5391, title = {Improving adaptation planning for future sea level rise and coastal flooding}, year = {2018}, school = {University of Tasmania}, address = {Hobart}, abstract = {

Sea level rise has the potential to exacerbate coastal flooding around the world, causing more frequent extreme sea levels, nuisance flooding and permanent inundation. Projecting diverse physical, environmental and socio-economic impacts to coastal communities across multi-decadal timeframes is vital for informed adaptation planning. However, this is increasingly uncertain and challenged by conflicting stakeholder priorities.

This thesis develops an interdisciplinary approach to advance the planning of long-term adaptation pathways in the context of coastal flood risk management. Utilising three case studies in south-east Australia, it combines the strengths of robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) {\textendash} both prominent tools to support decision-making under conditions of uncertainty {\textendash} together with solicited values-based information to make three novel advances towards flexible adaptation pathways planning.

First, this thesis combines the strengths of RDM and DAPP for planning adaptation pathways by using scenario discovery to provide a multi-dimensional description of adaptation tipping points. The scenario discovery process uses an existing cluster finding algorithm to identify future conditions where adaptation policies no longer keep flood risk at tolerable levels. Combining RDM and DAPP is a novel approach in coastal flood risk management and scenario discovery provides greater visibility on the physical factors driving adaptation tipping points. Second, values-based information is integrated into the adaptation planning process in an attempt to consider subjective social and cultural impacts from coastal flooding. In this regard, the novel combination and explanatory value of lived and landscape values is investigated. Consideration of these more intangible effects are often omitted in coastal adaptation planning but can contribute to more informed adaptation decisions. Third, the combined RDM and DAPP method developed uses both geographic information system (GIS) software and open source programming tools to analyse flood impacts. This improves the usability and relevance of a combined RDM and DAPP approach, enabling the efficient redeployment and customisation of the method to suit different location-specific needs. Such an approach also provides a lower cost entry point for local government agencies to begin planning coastal adaptation pathways.

Each of these advances combine to provide a framework that improves the way coastal adaptation pathways are planned and developed. The findings elucidated from the case studies show how a combined RDM and DAPP approach can account for spatial and temporal interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability flood risk factors, which improves the way robustness is measured for adaptation policy options. Values-based approaches can shape the selection of adaptation objectives, improve the design of options, support the evaluations of adaptation pathways and inform monitoring systems. The resultant adaptation pathways framework can support local government in planning sustainable strategies to manage long-term flood impacts. This has global applications for coastal flood risk management that will become increasingly important throughout the coming century.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Climate change, coastal flooding, decision-making, Planning, risk, sea level rise, uncertainty}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/29624/}, author = {Timothy Ramm} } @article {bnh-6347, title = {Increasing emergency management capacity through business sector involvement }, number = {489}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Catastrophic disasters overwhelm the capacity and capability of existing emergency management frameworks. To reduce the occurrence of such events it is essential to consider the use of alternate sources of capability and capacity. The business sector has a history of involvement during disasters. This report considers models for the utilisation of the business sector in disaster management and provides suggestions for improvement within the Australian context.\ 

}, keywords = {business, cascading catastrophe, Emergency management, literature review}, issn = {489}, author = {Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-5401, title = {Influence of controlled burning on the mobility and temporal variations of potentially toxic metals (PTMs) in the soils of a legacy gold mine site in Central Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Geoderma}, volume = {331}, year = {2018}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Controlled burns also known as managed burns or prescribed fires conducted in fire-prone areas are an efficient and economic option to reduce the frequency and intensity of\ wildfires. The objective of this study is to investigate the\ remobilizationof potentially\ toxic metals\ (PTMs) in the soils of a legacy\ gold mine\ site in Central Victoria, Australia after a controlled burn and to describe their\ temporal variationsin concentrations. Soil samples were collected two days before, two days after and five times later (3, 6, 9, 12 months and after major rainfall) in the post-burn environment after a controlled burn, from the Maldon legacy mine site and analysed for PTM concentrations. The results revealed PTM mobilization after the burn and most of the PTMs (As, Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni, and Zn) evidenced an increase immediately after the burn but a reduction in the subsequent post-burn environment. The increase is postulated to be associated with addition of PTM enriched ash to the soil, while the decrease is due to the removal of ash and surface soil by wind activity as well as rainfall\ runoff\ and\ leaching. The PTM mobility is of specific concern due to the negative impacts on human and\ ecosystems health.\ Climate change\ and the resulting projection of increased\ forest fire\ frequency highlight the environmental significance, given the expected concomitant increase in PTM mobilization through wildfires and controlled burns. Hence, the practice of controlled burning should be carefully considered as a\ forest management\ option in any legacy mining areas and indeed in other areas where PTM\ contamination\ is reported.

}, keywords = {Ash, forest fire, Forest management, Metal mobility, prescribed fire, Soil and water contamination}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.06.010}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016706117320001}, author = {Joji Abraham and Kim Dowling and Singarayer Florentine} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5689, title = {Investigating bird responses to fire in the Heathy Dry Forests of Victoria, Australia}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2019}, school = {Federation University Australia}, address = {Ballarat }, abstract = {


Globally, forest birds are under pressure, from agriculture and urban development fragmenting the landscape. Adding to these pressures, changes in the patterns of global climate drivers give rise to an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In Victoria, Australia, changing weather conditions are resulting in increases in the frequency and extent of bushfires. Furthermore, prescribed burning is applied to the landscape in attempts to not only ameliorate the impacts from bushfire, but as part of a {\textquoteleft}pyrodiversity begets biodiversity{\textquoteright} protocol. These pressures all impact birds by reducing resources for: food, nesting and protection from predators. This thesis investigated bird responses to fire in the Heathy Dry Forests of Victoria, against variables of time-since-fire and fire frequency. Bird responses were modelled in terms of: community, foraging guilds and individual species. As a community, birds showed a resilience to both time since fire and fire frequency. Responses by foraging guilds and individual species highlighted some different responses. The common species from each foraging guild showed responses that broadly represent their guild. This thesis highlighted that an effective tool in adaptive management is to predict the trends of our common forest birds, as surrogates for entire bird communities, not just for fire responses, but for a broader reflection on the health of the landscape. The modelling of one species, the Laughing Kookaburra, showed a response to both time since fire and fire frequency, with a reduced abundance in post-fire new-growth vegetation. As this species is noted as being in decline down the east coast of Australia, it is flagged in this thesis as a species of concern. Further, this thesis investigated alpha and beta responses by the forest birds to prescribed burns of different severities. Results suggest that forest birds show little response to small prescribed burns in the landscape, regardless of severity. This may be a result of Heathy Dry Forests{\textquoteright} rapid regeneration post-fire. However, one species that exhibits site fidelity, the White-throated Treecreeper, left areas impacted by high severity prescribed burns. The White-throated Treecreeper{\textquoteright}s response flagged the importance of tree hollows being maintained in the landscape, essential for the species that require hollows for roosting and nesting.

}, keywords = {birds, Fire, forest fires}, url = {http://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/HandleResolver/1959.17/167648}, author = {Diana Kuchinke} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5397, title = {Navigating Uncertainty: a qualitative study of resident involvement in the 2013 Forcett Tasmania bushfire disaster}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This thesis is a grounded theory analysis of resident involvement in the 2013 Forcett Tasmania bushfire disaster.\  Friday 4 January 2013 was one of the most significant fire days in Tasmania since 1967.\  The fire threatened life and left a trail of destruction, animals perished, homes, livelihood and landscape were destroyed or damaged.\  Despite this there appeared to be a level of social structure and processes evident.\  Many residents carried out a range of actions and activities before, during and after the bushfire disaster.\  It appeared that residents had a way of doing things and these actions were significant.\  In the post disaster phase, many of these local processes appeared to be overlooked by the well-intentioned external help or overwhelmed by the visitor-related goodwill.\ 

The analysis presented in this thesis focuses on the local social processes.\  The main question opening the inquiry was - What is community-led recovery in the context of a bushfire hazard and disaster?\  The qualitative research design involved in-depth interviews, to develop an explanatory account of the phenomenon of interest based on the analysis of people{\textquoteright}s experience and perspectives.\  The 40 people who participated in this study were residents of the small communities impacted by the bushfire disaster, external support volunteers, and representatives of local and state government and non-government services.

The constructivist grounded theory approach that was adopted by the researcher, constructed a theory grounded in the data that was collected by research participants.\  The grounded theory {\textquoteleft}Navigating Uncertainty{\textquoteright} outlines processes of surviving a bushfire disaster.\  A psychosocial process represents an interpretive understanding of what community members encountered before, during and after the bushfire disaster.\  The substantive theory {\textquoteleft}Navigating Uncertainty{\textquoteright} is built around community member{\textquoteright}s main concerns and what they did to resolve their concerns; their decision-making and actions underpinned by the meaning they gave to their experience.\  In a context of uncertainty community members depended on processes and systems that were familiar to them which fostered a sense of stability and helped sustain them through a period of change.\  This research concludes it is necessary to understand the holistic nature of people{\textquoteright}s lived experience in disaster events.\  Recovery includes the way people interpret and manage their context throughout a bushfire disaster, not just the post-disaster phase.\  Furthermore, the research identifies the importance of safeguarding and sustaining social stability, and approaches that support the participation of community members in a way that is meaningful and respectful of their experience.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, community, disaster, grounded theory, recovery}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162621}, author = {Fiona Jennings} } @article {bnh-5456, title = {Self-evacuation archetypes in Australian bushfire}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2019}, abstract = {

Australian householders respond to bushfire in diverse and complex ways according to their circumstances and characteristics. They tend not to simply make a binary decision to evacuate from or remain at their property, or simply to {\textquoteright}wait and see{\textquoteright} what happens before they decide. Seven self-evacuation archetypes displaying universally recognisable, fundamentally human characteristics were identified through cluster and discriminant function analysis of data from 457 householders who had recently experienced a bushfire.

These seven archetypes characterise the diverse attitudes and behaviour of typical groupings of householders faced with making a protective decision during a bushfire. The archetypes comprise those who deny a threat exists (Threat Denier), who do not believe that they are responsible for themselves (Responsibility Denier) or are unable to take responsibility for their safe evacuation (Dependent Evacuator). They include those who are determined to safely evacuate (Considered Evacuator), those who look to advice and guidance from their community (Community Guided) and those who make considerable efforts to remain but are concerned they lack the experience to do so successfully (Worried Waverers). Some, who are experienced with bushfire, self-reliant and well prepared are committed to remaining (Experienced Independents) but in unfavourable circumstances may evacuate. Bushfire safety policy and programs should not treat these householders as simply stereotypical {\textquoteright}evacuators{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteright}remainers{\textquoteright} but accommodate the diversity of these archetypes to effectively meet their educational and engagement needs.

}, keywords = {hazard, Personal safety, Public policy, Wildfire}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.10.016}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:46864}, author = {Ken Strahan and J Whittaker and John Handmer} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5458, title = {Sleep and stress in on-call fire and emergency service workers}, volume = {PhD}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Some aspects of sleep quantity and quality may be affected when on-call. The two main stress systems are largely unaffected by on-call work, with the exception of the cortisol awakening response. Two characteristics of the cortisol awakening response were blunted when on-call with a night callout compared to when off-call.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, emergency services, Fire}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30110841}, author = {Sarah J Hall} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5390, title = {Acknowledging local sociality in disaster recovery: a longitudinal, qualitative study}, year = {2017}, school = {Macquarie University}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Formal recovery, reconstruction and risk reduction efforts put in place in response to major disaster events are designed to redevelop infrastructure and services for, and improve the longer-term safety of, the affected populations. However, these efforts often rely on top-down approaches that neglect the impact on and the presence of local people{\textquoteright}s everyday lives in and with their communities (local sociality). As a result, top-down recovery and reconstruction approaches may misjudge engagement with disaster-impacted communities. Existing and emerging power-relations tend to influence the aims and processes of the recovery and marginalise the voices of the affected populations, particularly the most vulnerable.

This thesis explores these issues in four case studies: the towns of St George and Grantham, in Queensland, Australia, both of which were severely impacted by flooding events between 2010 and 2012, and the Japanese towns of Koizumi and Namie, which sustained devastating damage from the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami and in the case of Namie, contamination from the Fukushima nuclear reactor in 2011. This study identifies a critical coherence in the human, social and political issues and challenges across all study areas, despite differences in the country, physical attributes of the hazards, types of damage and responses. In particular, the commonality identified across four different cases illuminate the importance of local sociality that is highly valued by the disaster-impacted people but often overlooked or downplayed by others.

The adopted qualitative, longitudinal research approach using semi-structured interviews through multiple site visits captured and identified long-term impacts and transitions in each study area involving individuals, households, local community groups, support persons and organisations and government officials.

}, keywords = {Australia, community, development, disaster relief, Japan, recovery, resilience, Vulnerability}, doi = {http://hdl.handle.net/1959.14/1260629}, url = {http://minerva.mq.edu.au:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:70138}, author = {Tetsuya Okada} } @conference {bnh-6026, title = {Analytical Model for Seismic Retrofit of Concrete Beam-Column Joint using Diagonal Metallic Haunch}, booktitle = {World Congress on Advances in Structural Engineering and Mechanics}, year = {2017}, month = {01/09/2017}, publisher = {Swinburne University of Technology}, organization = {Swinburne University of Technology}, address = {Korea}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is typically the weakest link in a limited-ductile concrete frame structure. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for reducing the seismic demand at the joint. Previous research globally has focused on implementing double haunches, whilst the performance of using single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favourable retrofit option has not been investigated. In this study, the feasibility of using a single haunch system for retrofitting RC exterior beam-column joint is explored. This paper presents the key formulations and illustrates its effectiveness by investigating the changes in the shear demand at the joint through a case study.

}, keywords = {building, building disaster proof, construction, Emergency management, engineering, hazards, risk management}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and Zabihi, Alireza and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5457, title = {Factors influencing householder self-evacuation in two Australian bushfires}, year = {2017}, month = {08/2017}, school = {RMIT}, type = {Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The thesis investigated householder self-evacuation decision-making during bushfires in the Perth and Adelaide Hills in 2014 and 2015. It explored the factors that influenced householders{\textquoteright} decisions to evacuate, identified factors that predict self-evacuation and established the characteristics of self-evacuators. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a conceptual framework for the research. Its theoretical and analytical usefulness in an Australian context, was assessed. A mixed methods research strategy was used involving quantitative telephone surveys of 457 bushfire-affected participants and face-to-face interviews of 109 participants in 59 households.\ 

The study concluded that environmental and social cues and warnings and householders{\textquoteright} perceptions of the threat, of hazard adjustments and of other stakeholders, influenced self-evacuation decision-making. Protective action perceptions, particularly the effectiveness of evacuating or not evacuating in protecting personal safety or property, were most important in predicting self-evacuation. Receipt of official warnings and the perception of likely impact of the bushfire on property were also important predictors. Undertaking long-run hazard adjustments, although not predictive of self-evacuation, was pivotal in shaping perceptions of the effectiveness of evacuating and remaining in protecting personal safety and property and indirectly influenced evacuation decisions. Seven archetypes that characterised householders{\textquoteright} self-evacuation attitudes and behaviour were identified. These included Threat, and Responsibility Deniers, Dependent, and Considered Evacuators, Community Guided and Experienced Independents all who took different decisional {\textquoteleft}rules of thumb{\textquoteright} and routes toward evacuating or remaining . The PADM needs to be split into two separate models to incorporate the influence of long-run hazard adjustments on protective action decision-making in an Australian bushfire.

The findings suggest that future research on those who wait and see during a bushfire should take account of their decisional rules of thumb and that design and targeting of Australian bushfire safety policy should better account for self-evacuator characteristics.\ 

}, keywords = {{\textquoteright}Dependent Evacuator{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteright}Wait and See{\textquoteright}, Archetypes, Bushfire, decision-making, Long-run hazard adjustment, PADM, Prediction Policy, Self-evacuation, Wildfire}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162093}, author = {Ken Strahan} } @article {bnh-5403, title = {Risk of post-fire metal mobilization into surface water resources: A review}, journal = {Science of the total Environment}, volume = {599-600}, year = {2017}, abstract = {

One of the significant economic benefits to communities around the world of having pristine forest\ catchments\ is the supply of substantial quantities of high quality potable water. This supports a saving of around US$ 4.1 trillion per year globally by limiting the cost of expensive\ drinking water treatments\ and provision of unnecessary infrastructure. Even low levels of contaminants specifically organics and metals in catchments when in a mobile state can reduce these economic benefits by seriously affecting the water quality.\ Contamination\ and contaminant mobility can occur through natural and anthropogenic activities including\ forest fires. Moderate to high intensity forest fires are able to alter\ soil properties\ and release sequestered metals from sediments,\ soil organic matter\ and fragments of vegetation. In addition, the increase in post-fire\ erosion rate\ by rainfall runoff and strong winds facilitates the rapid transport of these metals downslope and downstream. The subsequent metal deposition in distal soil and water bodies can influence surface water quality with potential impacts to the larger ecosystems inclusive of negative effects on humans. This is of substantial concern as 4 billion hectares of forest catchments provide high quality water to global communities. Redressing this problem requires quantification of the potential effects on water resources and instituting rigorous fire and\ environmental management\ plans to mitigate deleterious effects on catchment areas. This paper is a review of the current state of the art literature dealing with the risk of post-fire mobilization of the metals into surface water resources. It is intended to inform discussion on the preparation of suitable management plans and policies during and after fire events in order to maintain potable water quality in a cost-effective manner. In these times of climate fluctuation and increased incidence of fires, the need for development of new policies and management frameworks are of heighted significance.

}, keywords = {Catchment, Ecosystem, environment, forest fire, Metal, Water resources}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.096}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969717311968}, author = {Joji Abraham and Kim Dowling and Singarayer Florentine} } @conference {bnh-6028, title = {Analytical development of seismic retrofit technique for RC beam-column joint using single diagonal haunch}, booktitle = {24th Australian Conference on the Mechanics of Structures and Materials}, year = {2016}, month = {12/2016}, publisher = {Swinburne University of Technology}, organization = {Swinburne University of Technology}, address = {Perth, Australia}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is typically the weakest link in a limited-ductile RC frame structure. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for preventing brittle failure of the joint. Previous research has been focused on implementing double haunches, whilst the performance of using single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favourable retrofit option has not been investigated. Hence, the feasibility of using single haunch system for retrofitting RC beam-column joint is explored in this study. This paper presents the analytical development of the technique and illustrates its effectiveness by showing the changes in the shear demand at the joint.

}, keywords = {building, construction, earthquake, engineering, retrofitting, risk management}, author = {Zabihi, Alireza and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @conference {bnh-6008, title = {Retrofitting RC Beam-Column Joint in Australia using Single Diagonal Haunch}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2016 Conference}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, publisher = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, organization = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is potentially the weakest link in a limited-ductile RC frame structure in Australia. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for preventing brittle failure of the joint. Previous research globally has focused on implementing double haunches, whilst the performance of using single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favourable retrofit option has not been investigated. In this study, the feasibility of using a single haunch system for retrofitting RC beam-column joint in Australia is explored. This paper presents the key formulations of the technique and illustrates its effectiveness by showing analytically the changes in the shear demand at the joint.

}, keywords = {Exterior beam-column joint, limited-ductile, RC frame, seismic retrofitting, single haunch}, author = {Zabihi, Alireza and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} }