@article {bnh-5008, title = {Evaluation and calibration of a high-resolution soil moisture product for wildfire prediction and management}, journal = { Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {264}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, pages = {12}, chapter = {27}, abstract = {

Soil moisture deficit is a key variable used in operational fire prediction and management applications. In Australia, operational fire management practices use simple, empirical water balances models to estimate soil moisture deficit. The Bureau of Meteorology has recently developed a prototype, high-resolution, land surface modelling based, state-of-the-art soil moisture analyses for Australia. The present study examines this new product for use in operational fire prediction and management practices in Australia. The approach used is twofold. First, the new soil moisture product is evaluated against observations from ground based networks. Among the results, the mean Pearson{\textquoteright}s correlation for surface soil moisture across the three in-situ networks is found to be between 0.78 and 0.85. Secondly, the study evaluate a few different calibration methods to facilitate the ready utilization of the new soil moisture product in the current operational fire prediction framework. The calibration approaches investigated here are: minimum-maximum matching, mean-variance matching and, cumulative distribution function matching. Validation of the calibrated products using extended triple collocation technique shows that the minimum-maximum method has the highest skill. Evaluation of the calibrated products against MODIS fire radiative power data highlights that large fires correspond to a drier soil in minimum-maximum outputs compared to other calibration results and the current operational method.

}, keywords = {Calibration, Fire danger rating, Land surface model, Soil moisture deficit, Triple collocation, Verification}, doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.012}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192318303071}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @article {bnh-5056, title = {Limitations of high resolution satellite stereo imagery for estimating canopy height in Australian tropical savannas}, journal = {International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation}, volume = {75}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, pages = {12}, chapter = {83}, abstract = {

Obtaining reliable measures of tree canopy height across large areas is a central element of forest inventory and carbon accounting. Recent years have seen an increased emphasis on the use of active sensors like Radar and airborne LiDAR (light detection and scanning) systems to estimate various 3D characteristics of canopy and crown structure that can be used as predictors of biomass. However, airborne LiDAR data are expensive to acquire, and not often readily available across large remote landscapes. In this study, we evaluated the potential of stereo imagery from commercially available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellites as an alternative for estimating canopy height variables in Australian tropical savannas, using a semi-global dense matching (SGM) image-based technique. We assessed and compared the completeness and vertical accuracy of extracted canopy height models (CHMs) from GeoEye 1 and WorldView 1 VHR satellite stereo pairs and summarised the factors influencing image matching effectiveness and quality.

Our results showed that stereo dense matching using the SGM technique severely underestimates tree presence and canopy height. The highest tree detection rates were achieved by using the near-infrared (NIR) band of GE1 (8{\textendash}9\%). WV1-GE1 cross-satellite (mixed) models did not improve the quality of extracted canopy heights. We consider these poor detection rates and height retrievals to result from: i) the clumping crown structure of the dominant Eucalyptus spp.; ii) their vertically oriented leaves (affecting the bidirectional reflectance distribution function); iii) image band radiometry and iv) wind induced crown movement affecting stereo-pair point matching. Our detailed analyses suggest that current commercially available VHR satellite data (0.5 m resolution) are not well suited to estimating canopy height variables, and therefore above ground biomass (AGB), in Eucalyptus dominated north Australian tropical savanna woodlands.

}, keywords = {canopy height, Satellite, Savanna, Stereo}, doi = {10.1016/j.jag.2018.10.021}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0303243418308390}, author = {Grigorijs Goldbergs and Stefan Maier and Shaun R Levick and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-5335, title = {Public information in the emergency services - literature review}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, abstract = {

Emergency management can be referred to in terms of {\textquoteleft}Prevention, Preparedness, Response and Recovery{\textquoteright} (PPRR) or the {\textquoteleft}Comprehensive Approach{\textquoteright} to managing disasters and emergencies. The literature review (review) is aimed at public information in the response phase. For the purposes of the review, response is defined as {\textquotedblleft}activities which activate preparedness arrangements and plans to put in place effective measures to deal with emergencies and disasters if and when they do occur{\textquotedblright} (Emergency Management Australia, 2004, p. 4).

The scope of the literature examined is based on four themes; systematic influence, challenges, an evolving field and future directions/solutions. The review informs the report for the Tasmania Fire Service (TFS) and State Emergency Service (SES) (final product) for the unit EMG505 {\textendash} Work Based Project for the qualification of Master of Emergency Management at Charles Sturt University. Across the four themes the following points are considered.

The topic for the review is enhancing public information practice during the response phase, in Tasmania{\textquoteright}s emergency services (Tasmania Fire Service and State Emergency Service).

The structure of the review is through thematic organisation, the division of the research into sections representing the conceptual subject for research (University of New South Wales, 2017). The purpose of the review is to investigate the current state of practice in public information during the response phase, including {\textquoteleft}best practice{\textquoteright}. The review pays particular attention to the literature following the Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires in 2009.

}, author = {Peter Middleton} } @article {bnh-5336, title = {Ten years on from the Victorian Black Saturday bushfires - public information during response}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, abstract = {

Emergency management can be spoken about in terms of {\textquoteleft}Prevention, Preparedness, Response and Recovery{\textquoteright} (PPRR) or the {\textquoteleft}Comprehensive Approach{\textquoteright} to managing disasters and emergencies. This report is focussed on public information in the response phase.\ 

Identifying the current state of practice and challenges in the public information function of Tasmania Fire Service (TFS) and State Emergency Service (SES) emergency response. Proposing enhancements through a series of recommendations, based on a review of the literature and an online survey completed with public information response staff at TFS and SES.

}, author = {Peter Middleton} } @article {bnh-4427, title = {Analysis of the physical processes associated with junction fires at laboratory and field scales}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire }, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

Junction fires, which involve the merging of two linear fire fronts intersecting at a small angle, are associated with very intense fire behaviour. The dynamic displacement of the intersection point of the two lines and the flow along the symmetry plane of the fire are analysed for symmetric boundary conditions. It is observed that the velocity of displacement of this point increases very rapidly owing to strong convective effects created by the fire that are similar to those of an eruptive fire. The change of fire geometry and of its associated flow gradually blocks the rate of spread increase and creates a strong deceleration of the fire, which ends up behaving like a linear fire front. Results from laboratory and field-scale experiments, using various fuel beds and slope angles and from a large-scale fire show that the processes are similar at a wide range of scales with little dependence on the initial boundary conditions. Numerical simulation of the heat flux from two flame surfaces to an element of the fuel bed show that radiation can be considered as the main mechanism of fire spread only during the deceleration phase of the fire.

}, keywords = {accelerating fires, convective effects, dynamic fire behaviour, extreme fire behaviour, Fire behaviour, merging fires.}, doi = {10.1071/WF16173}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF16173}, author = {J. R. Raposo and D. X. Viegas and X. Xie and M. Almeida and A. R. Figueiredo and L. Porto and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-4573, title = {Animal emergency management in South Australia: a case study of the Sampson Flat bushfire}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, chapter = {60}, keywords = {animals, disaster management., Emergency management, sampson flat}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-animal-emergency-management-in-south-australia-a-case-study-of-the-sampson-flat-bushfire/}, author = {Mel Taylor and Megan McCarthy} } @conference {bnh-4771, title = {Applying unharmed for risk reduction planning {\textendash} comparing strategies and long-term effectiveness}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Natural hazards are an unavoidable component of life in Australia. Analysis shows the average cost of natural hazards in 2015 totalled $9.6billion, and this figure is projected to increase to $33billion by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics 2015). These figures correspond to a substantial impact and coupled with the social and environmental impacts of disasters, paint a bleak picture. However, as tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk is a function of today{\textquoteright}s decisions with effective risk reduction planning there is significant scope to minimise tomorrow{\textquoteright}s impacts. The challenge though exists in that ex-ante analysis on the long term effectiveness of risk reduction strategies, the type of analysis required to justify significant investment and policy decisions, is challenging given the dynamic, complex nature of disaster risk, and the length of assessment period required to consider returns. In response to this and to support improved understanding of future risks and ex-ante testing of risk reduction solutions a tool was developed between researchers and Australian government agencies.

}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Roel Vanhout and Holger Maier and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy} } @article {bnh-5063, title = {Attachment, bushfire preparedness, planning, and response among animal guardians: A South Australian case study}, journal = {PLOS}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, abstract = {

Abstract Background: Animal ownership has been identified as a risk factor for human survivability of natural disasters. Animal guardians have been reported to react or act in ways that may put their own safety and that of emergency services personnel at risk when faced with a natural disaster. Recent research has suggested that this risk factor could be reconfigured as a protective factor, whereby desires to save animals from natural disaster harm could motivate increased planning and preparedness behaviours amongst animal guardians. However, there has been no research to determine if bushfire planning and response behaviours differ between pet owners with low and high attachment; and how the relationship may differ in relation to small or large animals. Methods and procedure: We investigated the relationship between people{\textquoteright}s emotional attachment to different types of pets and their preparation and actions during the Pinery bushfire in South Australia in November 2015. Thirty-four people who were impacted by the fire participated in an online survey. Data were collected about their preparedness, planning and response behaviours as well as their animal attachment (high or low). Results: We identified 10 characteristics (behaviours, attributes, skills and beliefs) associated with high animal attachment scores, and eight associated with low animal attachment scores. Discussion: Our discussion of the differences in demographics, preparedness, planning and response characteristics of participants with high and low animal attachment confirms research suggesting that animal guardians take risks to save their animals during disasters. Our findings also support recent propositions that animal attachment and ownership could be used to increase the natural disaster preparedness and survivability of animal guardians. However, making sure that animal attachment functions as a protective factor requires active and effective intervention through education, behaviour change and social marketing strategies. Whilst our study is high in ecological validity, future research with larger samples sizes is required to determine the generalisability of our findings to animal owners and guardians in other locations, facing fires with other characteristics, especially for owners and guardians with low levels of attachment.

}, url = {http://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/bushfire-preparedness-planning-and-response-among-animal-guardians-a-south-australian-case-study/}, author = {Dr Lisel O{\textquoteright}Dwyer and Kirrilly Thompson} } @article {bnh-5007, title = {Australian wildland-urban interface householders{\textquoteright} wildfire safety preparations: {\textquoteleft}Everyday life{\textquoteright} project priorities and perceptions of wildfire risk}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, abstract = {

Globally, many residents of wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities are at risk of wildfire attack but do not undertake adequate preparations. Householder wildfire risk perception has been proposed as an important influence on risk mitigation preparatory actions. However, research findings have been inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis of 10 studies and found the average correlation between wildfire risk perception and risk mitigation actions to be small: r = 0.17. In order to investigate wildfire risk perception and mitigation further we conducted two studies of Australian WUI householders{\textquoteright} wildfire risk perceptions and mitigation actions in the context of their everyday life activities conceptualised as {\textquoteleft}household projects{\textquoteright}. Study 1 involved 32 interviews. Both household wildfire safety project priority rankings (r = 0.47) and wildfire risk perception ratings (r = 0.44) were related significantly to number of completed wildfire preparation actions. Study 2 involved 127 householders completing an online survey, with 83 providing household wildfire safety project priority rankings. These rankings were related significantly to number of completed wildfire safety preparation actions (r = 0.38), but risk perception ratings were not related significantly (r = 0.08). Implications of viewing wildfire preparation actions as being situated in everyday life contexts are discussed.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, everyday life, personal projects, risk mitigation, WUI risk perception}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.09.017}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918308719$\#$!}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Jim McLennan and Kubra Koksal and Danielle Every} } @conference {bnh-4767, title = {Australia{\textquoteright}s future national heatwave forecast and warning service: operational considerations.}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Heat wave is Australia{\textquoteright}s deadliest natural hazard. It is responsible for more hazardrelated deaths than all other natural hazards combined. The incidence of severe and extreme heatwaves in Australia has been considerable and is projected to increase. Recent efforts to mitigate the impact of this rising frequency and severity of heatwave events across the nation has witnessed State and Territory authorities warning for impacts across human health, infrastructure, utilities, community events and business activities whilst the Bureau of Meteorology introduced a national heatwave service. Consultation across emergency services, health and media sectors has established the requirement for a national heatwave warning framework. Within the health sector separate calls have been made for a nationalised approach to heatwave warnings.\  We describe an operational partnership model for emergency and health agencies community information and warnings facilitated by the Bureau{\textquoteright}s future heatwave forecasts and warnings in a multi-hazard warning framework.\  Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that the Bureau{\textquoteright}s severity scale has skill in predicting health impacts in Western Australia, South Australia and New South Wales. The UK Meteorological Office has included the Bureau{\textquoteright}s heatwave and coldwave methodology in their Global Hazard Map project where it is also demonstrating acceptable levels of accuracy in identifying high impact events around the world. The Bureau has supplied a national warm season heatwave severity service since January 2014 in the form of seven continental scale severity maps, updated once a day. Predictive skill and heatwave event severity characterisation reports for summers 201314, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 have been circulated to the Bureau{\textquoteright}s internal Heatwave Services Reference Group to enable consideration and validation of the current heatwave service. This verification work is scheduled to continue with upgraded diagnostics included here for the 2017-18 season. Future emergency services and human health information and warning services are prototyped using recently developed gridded heatwave service data. Heatwave forecast and warning services are demonstrated to characterise how each partner{\textquoteright}s information and warning services would have been supported during the 2017-18 summer.\ \ 

}, author = {John Nairn and Robert Fawcett and Linda Anderson-Berry and Bertram Ostendorf and Peng Bi and Chris Beattie and Mark Cannadine} } @article {bnh-5010, title = {Building capability in emergency services: diversity and inclusion in communities}, number = {418}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

The purpose of this report is to consolidate and integrate the findings of case studies conducted in three locations {\textendash} Bordertown, Bendigo and Parramatta. The aims of the case studies were to gain a greater qualitative understanding of the dynamics of change in communities, to explore community perceptions of Emergency Management Services (EMS) and to identify barriers and opportunities for community engagement and inclusion with EMS.\ 

Each case study areas is affected variously by major Australian trends including economic transformation, population growth, increasing cultural diversity, widening inequality and spatial reconfigurations, as well as sustained inequalities based on gender, disability, indigeneity and other forms of diversity. Key themes identified include that EMS are widely held in high regard and there were numerous examples of practical EMS engagement with communities. At the same time, barriers to engagement stem from the perception that EMS do not fully appreciate or understand the changing nature of diversity within their communities, that they appear to be a {\textquoteleft}closed shop{\textquoteright}, unwelcoming to women, sometimes intimidating, difficult to communicate with and lacking in transparency and flexibility.

While multiple opportunities were identified to enhance community engagement, the overall priority was to approach diversity and inclusion as a dynamic and ongoing process based on proactive relationship-building and collaboration.\  This is understood as necessary in order to appreciate the lived experience of diverse communities and to harness the community knowledge, languages and skills to better serve the community in the long term. The findings suggest that there is great willingness within communities to facilitate and collaborate towards this goal.

}, issn = {418}, author = {Joanne Pyke} } @article {bnh-4690, title = {Bushfire Preparedness, Planning, and Response among Animal Guardians: A South Australian Case Study}, journal = {PLOS Current Disasters}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, abstract = {

Animal ownership has been identified as a risk factor for human survivability of natural disasters. Animal guardians have been reported to react or act in ways that may put their own safety and that of emergency services personnel at risk when faced with a natural disaster. Recent research has suggested that this risk factor could be reconfigured as a protective factor, whereby desires to save animals from natural disaster harm could motivate increased planning and preparedness behaviours amongst animal guardians. However, there has been no research to determine if bushfire planning and response behaviours differ between pet owners with low and high attachment; and how the relationship may differ in relation to small or large animals. Methods and procedure: We investigated the relationship between people{\textquoteright}s emotional attachment to different types of pets and their preparation and actions during the Pinery bushfire in South Australia in November 2015. Thirty-four people who were impacted by the fire participated in an online survey. Data were collected about their preparedness, planning and response behaviours as well as their animal attachment (high or low). Results: We identified 10 characteristics (behaviours, attributes, skills and beliefs) associated with high animal attachment scores, and eight associated with low animal attachment scores. Discussion: Our discussion of the differences in demographics, preparedness, planning and response characteristics of participants with high and low animal attachment confirms research suggesting that animal guardians take risks to save their animals during disasters. Our findings also support recent propositions that animal attachment and ownership could be used to increase the natural disaster preparedness and survivability of animal guardians. However, making sure that animal attachment functions as a protective factor requires active and effective intervention through education, behaviour change and social marketing strategies. Whilst our study is high in ecological validity, future research with larger samples sizes is required to determine the generalisability of our findings to animal owners and guardians in other locations, facing fires with other characteristics, especially for owners and guardians with low levels of attachment.

}, keywords = {animals, disasters, Emergency management, Planning, Preparedness, response.}, doi = {10.6084}, url = {http://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/bushfire-preparedness-planning-and-response-among-animal-guardians-a-south-australian-case-study/}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Dwyer, Lisel and Kirrilly Thompson} } @article {bnh-5259, title = {Can air quality management drive sustainable fuels management at the temperate wildland{\textendash}urban interface?}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {1}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, abstract = {

Sustainablefiremanagementhaseludedallindustrialsocieties. Giventhegrowingnumber and magnitude of wildfire events, prescribed fire is being increasingly promoted as the key to reducing wildfire risk. However, smoke from prescribed fires can adversely affect public health. We propose that the application of air quality standards can lead to the development and adoption of sustainable fire management approaches that lower the risk of economically and ecologically damagingwildfireswhileimprovingairqualityandreducingclimate-forcingemissions. Forexample, green fire breaks at the wildland{\textendash}urban interface (WUI) can resist the spread of wildfires into urban areas. These could be created through mechanical thinning of trees, and then maintained by targeted prescribedfiretocreatebiodiverseandaestheticallypleasinglandscapes. Theharvestedwoodydebris could be used for pellets and other forms of bioenergy in residential space heating and electricity generation. Collectively, such an approach would reduce the negative health impacts of smoke pollutionfromwildfires,prescribedfires,andcombustionofwoodfordomesticheating. Weillustrate such possibilities by comparing current and potential fire management approaches in the temperate and environmentally similar landscapes of Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada and the island state of Tasmania in Australia.

}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sarah_Henderson4/publication/326955566_Can_Air_Quality_Management_Drive_Sustainable_Fuels_Management_at_the_Temperate_Wildland-Urban_Interface/links/5b6db08245851546c9fa2dab/Can-Air-Quality-Management-Drive-Sustainable}, author = {David Bowman and Lori Daniels and Fay Johnston and Grant Williamson and Matt Jolly and Sheryl Magzamen and Ana Rappold and Michael Brauer and Sarah Henderson} } @article {bnh-4572, title = {Can major post-event inquiries and reviews contribute to lessons management?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, chapter = {34}, abstract = {

Significant disaster and emergency management events are invariably followed by formal post-event inquiries and reviews. Such reviews identify lessons to improve future capacities and set the agenda for policy and management reform for emergency management organisations. As a result, there is a substantial body of reflections and recommendations gathered across all hazard types and jurisdictions by formal, structured inquiry processes that contribute to lessons management for the emergency sector. However, whether there is any coherence or core lessons emerging for the Australian sector from the totality of postevent inquiries is unknown. The work reported here identifies the recommendations from these inquiries. A meta-analysis of 1336 recommendations made in 55 Australian major post-event reviews and inquiries since 2009 revealed common themes. The recommendations were compiled into a comprehensive database and categorised into 32 themes. The analysis highlighted recurrent themes from recommendations spanning multiple jurisdictions. The study indicates the potential value for Australian and New Zealand emergency management agencies and jurisdictions of using the aggregate data organised as a resource for lessons management.

}, keywords = {commission, communication, emergency management., lessons management, Planning, post-disaster, review, risk}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-can-major-post-event-inquiries-and-reviews-contribute-to-lessons-management/}, author = {Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-4688, title = {Changing capabilities of emergency service organisations}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

In our literature review on the costs and benefits of increasing diversity, we also outlined the changing context in which emergency service organisations (ESOs) (that include emergency management) were operating. In summary, the change in the context was due to:

{\textbullet} The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters due to climate change (National Strategy for Disaster Resilience) (COAG, 2011)

{\textbullet} The increased availability of new and improved technology to respond to natural disasters

{\textbullet} The increased need to serve a much more diverse community (Smiley, 2010, pp 24, 30).

This has meant that both the capabilities and the tasks undertaken by the ESOs have had to change to respond to this changing context, and tasks have changed as demonstrated by the types of incidents and emergencies attended.\  These new capabilities and new tasks could be undertaken by retraining the existing workforce. However, the development of these new capabilities and new tasks provides an opportunity to recruit new staff with the required skills from more diverse backgrounds to undertake these new and/or expanding tasks. The literature review suggested that a well-managed, more diverse workforce could produce better performance outcomes for tasks of increasing complexity. In some areas such as new technology capabilities and communication with diverse communities, it may be necessary to recruit those with more diverse backgrounds to meet basic operational objectives.

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity., emergencies, Emergency management, Learning}, issn = {364}, author = {Neelam Maharaj and Bruce Rasmussen} } @article {bnh-5258, title = {Collaboration in disasters: A cultural challenge for the utilities sector}, journal = {Utilities Policy}, volume = {54}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, chapter = {78}, abstract = {

Understanding the interdependency of organizations in a disaster is necessary to facilitate collaboration. Interdependencies in the utilities sector have traditionally focused upon the technical aspects of these dependencies. This research used empirical research methods that included an observational study of utility stakeholders during a real-time disaster. The study investigated the cultural challenges associated with the socio-cultural interdependencies that stakeholders from the utilities sector encountered when working in emergency management. Participants identified that a lack of legitimacy and trust created barriers to collaboration. The paper concludes with recommendations for the industry to address the potential cultural barriers encountered in a disaster.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.jup.2018.08.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178718300535}, author = {Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-4479, title = {Community adaptation to cope with disaster related road structure failure}, journal = {Procedia Engineering}, volume = {212}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, chapter = {1355}, abstract = {

Natural hazards can cause a wide range of social and economic impacts both to the area directly affected by the hazards as well as to the broader community. Although community resilience is an important aspect that influences post-disaster response and recovery stages, it has not been explicitly studied by most scholars, and is rather taken to be embedded in the socio-economic landscape studied in the literature. Road structures such as bridges, culverts and flood-ways play a vital role in times of natural disasters as their functionality directly influences evacuation, rescue, recovery and reconstruction activities. In addition to the direct benefits derived from road structures, in the event of a disaster, they play a vital role in resilience by connecting individuals and communities. This paper identifies adaptation methods practiced by disaster affected communities targeted at increasing their accessibility and mobility, and analyses how such adaptation activities can minimise the negative effects brought on by the failure of road structures. The paper uses a recent case study from regional Queensland, Australia, to understand how adaptation options vary in rural areas and to explore possible methods to improve resilience of communities.

}, keywords = {Community adaptation, Natural hazards, road structure failure.}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2018.01.175}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877705818302030?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Akvan Gajanayake and Hessam Mohseni and Guomin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Sujeeva Setunge} } @conference {bnh-4780, title = {Community preparedness and responses to the 2017 NSW bushfires}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

January and February 2017 saw a number of destructive bushfires in New South Wales, some of which occurred during Catastrophic fire weather conditions. These fires damaged and destroyed a range of assets including houses, outbuildings, community halls, livestock, machinery, fences and other agricultural assets. Fortunately no human lives were lost.\ 

}, author = {J Whittaker} } @conference {bnh-4783, title = {Community strategy development for reducing earthquake risk in Western Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

While the earthquake hazard in Australia is generally low by world standards, its severity does include higher hazard in some regions. This is the case in the Yilgarn region east of Perth as highlighted by the 1968 Meckering Earthquake and the observed seismic activity of the region in the last seventy years. Where building construction has not considered earthquake hazard the risk to communities can be significant. This is an issue for the township of York which is WA{\textquoteright}s oldest inland settlement and has a high proportion of heritage buildings that are vulnerable to earthquake. The presence of high risk buildings of this type is a challenge for local government, emergency management and other government agencies with a role in community recovery after disasters.
In the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC (BNHCRC) a project called Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk is developing information on cost effective strategies for retrofitting vulnerable buildings. The project scope has been augmented to examine the effectiveness of a range of strategies for addressing high risk structures. This is a collaborative study involving a partnership approach between state and local government along with academic and government researchers under the BNHCRC. The project will utilise the mitigation approaches developed by the CRC within a range of potential roll-out options to virtually retrofit the town of York. The net benefits of each will be assessed considering avoided damage, impacts on occupants, lost rental income, and disruption to business activity and households.
In this presentation the motivation for this collaborative effort will be discussed in the context of an improved understanding of natural hazard risk in WA, the increasing focus on investing in risk mitigation as opposed to response and recovery, and the shared interest of both State and Local government to promote resilience in vulnerable communities. The outcomes of a broad stakeholder workshop convened in York on the 9th August 2018 will be described in which strategies for providing incentives for risk reduction were identified. The importance of risk information in informing property owners and communities is discussed and the need to address their apprehension in addressing vulnerability with heritage listed structures. Finally, the value of broader measures of avoided community impacts beyond the direct monetary in decision making is highlighted and the linkages being made to another BNHCRC project called Economics of natural hazards that will enable intangible (non-market) values to be included in a quantitative manner.

}, author = {Stephen Gray and Paul Martin and Mark Edwards and Michael Griffith and Hossein Derakhshan} } @article {bnh-4689, title = {Community values survey}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Values are the basis of decision-making. They direct the beliefs that determine what is most important and so underpin desirable goals that motivate action (Schwartz, 2012, p4).
Understanding similar and differing values is increasingly being used by organisations as a way to understand gaps between their organization, clients and communities they serve. For emergency management services to better represent the diversity of the communities they service, they need to not just understand the demographics of those communities, but also the values across their communities, particularly in relation to diversity.
This study undertook a community survey across 539 community members to ascertain values and attitudes in relation to Emergency Management Organisations (EMO). The survey used Schwartz{\textquoteright}s measurement of values, comprised of ten different values, based around four key areas: openness to change, self-transcendence, conservation and self-enhancement, as a basis. Questions from the Schwartz values study were amalgamated with the World Values Survey to develop the survey. The demographic varied across age, gender and cultural spectrums.
The data from this survey provide a baseline for understanding existing community values relating to diversity and inclusion. These results will be compared to those held by EMOs and their staff in later work. This has potential to help discern where there may be significant similarities and differences between EMS organisations and the community that influence current and future strength and capability of diversity and inclusion in the emergency management sector.

}, keywords = {decision-making, diversity, Emergency management, inclusion, multi-hazard., Preparedness, response}, issn = {365}, author = {Craig Cormick} } @article {bnh-4446, title = {Conditions for effective coproduction in community-led disaster risk management}, journal = {Voluntas}, volume = {28}, year = {2018}, pages = {16}, abstract = {

This paper reports on a case study of collective coproduction in an Australian community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM) project called {\textquoteleft}Be Ready Warrandyte{\textquoteright}. The first goal of the case study was to understand what interactions and power-sharing between citizens and government {\textquoteleft}looked and felt like{\textquoteright} in a significant example of community-led CBDRM in an Australian context. Its second, broader goal was to test the extent to which foundational coproduction theory, specifically four conditions proposed by Elinor Ostrom for enabling coproduction that is more effective than either government or citizen production alone, can explain the citizen-government interactions, roles and contributions that enable successful community-led CBDRM. The study confirms that each of the four conditions {\textendash} complementarity, authority, incentives and credible commitment {\textendash} also apply to community-led as well as government-led initiatives. It reinforces the central importance of complementarity for avoiding off-loading of risk, responsibility and cost to citizens from government, while also suggesting that specific sources of internal and external authority, incentives, and credible commitment are especially important when coproduction is community-led. It identifies leadership and its impacts on government-citizen relationships and power-sharing in coproduction as an important area that needs further research.

}, keywords = {accountability, community initiatives, community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM), Coproduction, interactive governance., leadership}, doi = {10.1007/s11266-018-9957-2}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11266-018-9957-2} } @article {bnh-4970, title = {Controlled burn and immediate mobilization of potentially toxic elements in soil, from a legacy mine site in Central Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Science of The Total Environment}, volume = {616-617}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, chapter = {1022}, abstract = {

Conducting controlled burns in fire prone areas is an efficient and economic method for forest management, and provides relief from the incidence of high severity wild fires and the consequent damage to human property and ecosystems. However, similar to wild fires, controlled burns also affect many of the physical and biogeochemical properties of the forest soil and may facilitate remobilization of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) sequestered in vegetation and soil organic matter. The objective of the current study is to investigate the mobilization of PTEs, in Central Victorian forest soils in Australia after a controlled burn. Surface soil samples were collected two days before and after the controlled burn to determine the concentration of PTEs and to examine the physicochemical properties. Results show that As, Cd, Mn, Ni and Zn concentrations increased 1.1, 1.6, 1.7, 1.1 and 1.9 times respectively in the post-burn environment, whereas the concentrations of Hg, Cr and Pb decreased to 0.7, 0.9 and 0.9 times respectively, highlighting considerable PTE mobility during and after a controlled burn. Whilst these results do not identify very strong correlations between physicochemical properties of soil and PTEs in the pre- and post-burn environments, PTEs themselves demonstrated very strong and significant correlations. The mobilization of As, Hg and other toxic elements raise potential health concerns as the number of controlled burns are projected to increase in response to climate change. Due to this increased level of PTE release and remobilization, the use of any kinds of controlled burn must be carefully considered before being used as a forest management strategy in mining-affected landscapes which include areas with high PTE concentrations.

}, keywords = {Arsenic and metals, environmental pollution, forest fire, historical mining, prescribed fire, soil and water pollution}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969717329364}, author = {Joji Abraham and Kim Dowling and Singarayer Florentine} } @article {bnh-5034, title = {Decision making, team monitoring and organisational learning in emergency management: annual project report 2017-18}, number = {420}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

The focus of this project is on providing simple practical tools that can help people to make better decisions and manage teams more effectively in emergency management.\  In addition to the creation of the tools themselves we are also seeking to understand how agencies can better utilise the products from research.\  The project therefore has three streams: team monitoring, decision making and organisational learning.

}, issn = {420}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Heather Stuart} } @article {bnh-5264, title = {Determining the minimum sampling frequency for ground measurements of burn severity}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, abstract = {

Understanding burn severity is essential to provide an overview of the precursory conditions leading to fires as well as understanding the constraints placed on fire management services when mitigating their effects. Determining the minimum sampling frequency for ground measurements is not only essential for accurately assessing burn severity, but also for fire managers to better allocate resources and reduce the time and costs associated with sampling. In this study, field sampling methods for assessing burn severity are analysed statistically for 10 burn sites across Victoria, Australia, with varying spatial extents, topography and vegetation. Random and transect sampling methods are compared against each other using a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the minimum sample size needed for a difference of 0.02 (2\%) in the severity classes proportions relative to the population proportions. We show that, on average, transect sampling requires a sampling rate of 3.16\% compared with 0.59\% for random sampling. We also find that sites smaller than 400 ha require a sampling rate of between 1.4 and 2.8 times that of sites larger than 400 ha to achieve the same error. The information obtained from this study will assist fire managers to better allocate resources for assessing burn severity.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF17055}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF17055}, author = {Alexander Holmes and Sarah Harris and Nigel Tapper and Christoph R{\"u}diger} } @article {bnh-4998, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour}, number = {417}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Flame spread is an important process in the propagation of bushfires. The likelihood of ignition and combustion rates of fuels are dependent on the type and nature of the heat flux. The majority of previous research has used static heat flux, whereby a consistent heating source is used to ignite samples in a laboratory setting. This is despite the highly dynamic heating regimes typically observed during structural and wildland fires.

}, keywords = {Fire, fire behaviour., fire modelling, fire severity, modelling}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @conference {bnh-4770, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: income effects of the Black Saturday bushfires on disaster-hit individuals}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Using the rich and extensive Australian Longitudinal Census Dataset (ALCD) of 2006 and 2011, this study investigates the effects of the Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires (BSB) 2009 on the incomes of individuals living in disaster-hit areas.\  In a unique approach, we compute the share of burnt areas in the total surface area of the Statistical Area-2 (SA2) to measure the geographical variations in disaster severity, and match this measure with the individuals{\textquoteright} income and demographics data in the ALCD. Our methodology is based on a difference-indifferences approach, whereby we compare the incomes of individuals living in disaster-hit SA2s before and after the catastrophe with those of individuals who live in the neighbouring SA2s with no bushfire exposure.\  Our results are novel, informative, and have significant policy implications. We find that the average income effect of the BSB was negative and statistically significant for individuals who lived in the disaster-hit SA2s between 2006 and 2011. Our estimates suggest that an individual living in an SA2 with average bushfire severity measure experienced an estimated 14\% to 21\% income loss following the disaster.\  \ An additional crucial finding is related to the income differences between those who stayed in the disaster-hit areas following the disaster and those who moved out of the burnt areas. The negative income effect is not only significant for non-movers, but also greater in magnitude for those who migrated out of the disaster-hit SA2s following the catastrophe. This finding suggests that individuals might have made their out-migration decisions based on severe income losses after the disaster. We conclude that migration decisions of individuals into or out of disaster-hit areas is an important future avenue of research that could offer substantial policy implications for community resilience and economic recovery post disasters.\ 

}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @conference {bnh-4781, title = {Diversity and inclusion: Building strength and capability}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Although diversity and inclusion (D\&I) is not a new concept or area of practice, for the Emergency Management sector there has been little clarity of what effective D\&I looks like for the sector. This includes how it is implemented within the emergency management (EM) context, how that context itself is changing due to increasingly dynamic social, environmental and economic drivers and how D\&I is best measured and implemented. In its first year, the project Diversity and inclusion: Building strength and capability, has undertaken a number of activities with end users, involving developing a detailed project plan, undertaking a literature review, and conducting three case studies and a community survey. The case studies involved desktop studies of organisational capabilities and histories, and interviewing people within each organisation and in three different communities. This presentation covers the case studies, community interviews and community survey.

Using a systemic analysis that focuses on decision making, it examines the key synergies and differences found in each organisation in relation to past and present practice. Barriers, needs, opportunities and benefits for D\&I in each organisation as seen by their employees have been collated. It also examines how each organisation has evolved. Their capacity to serve the changing agenda that D\&I needs to operate within, and how D\&I can help develop that capacity is also examined. Views from the community of the EM sector are also canvassed. These findings have been used to develop a draft diversity and inclusion framework to guide the next stage of this research.

}, author = {Celeste Young and Joanne Pyke and Neelam Maharaj and Craig Cormick and Bruce Rasmussen and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-4498, title = {Diversity And Inclusion: Building Strength And Capability Literature Review}, number = {360}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, abstract = {

The recent Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) National Council stance {\textendash} that there are {\textquoteleft}unacceptably low levels of diversity{\textquoteright} in emergency services, and the recognition that emergency services need to better reflect the communities they work to serve (National Strategy for Disaster Resilience, National Emergency Management Committee, 2011) {\textendash} is driving new programs and policies in this area. There is also a growing awareness that there are a number of benefits that can result from diversity, particularly to the community. The strategy also recognises that being able to interact and communicate effectively with diverse communities is critical to the building of resilience and reduction of risk associated with natural hazard events.

The context for the EMS is changing as a result of dynamic social (changing demographics), environmental (the changing nature of natural hazard risk) and economic drivers (the increasing cost of responding to natural hazard events, resource constraints and changing technologies). These are driving the need for change and innovation across organisations in the EMS if they are to remain sustainable into the future. It is important to understand how these different factors influence and shape decision making, and the opportunities and barriers that organisations face when implementing policies relating to diversity and inclusion.

When looked at holistically, human diversity is broad, and its study bridges both the grey and refereed literature. This is because its nature is systemic, cultural and institutional {\textendash} touching every aspect of society. For an organisation to be successful in this area, it needs to define the system in which diversity exists, the specific context that diversity is being implemented in, and the different stages of the process of implementing diversity. A critical part of implementing diversity is the creation of inclusive workplaces that embrace and effectively manage difference. This needs to be combined with organisational change and innovation across all levels, within and beyond their organisations. You have existing organisations, so what is being created {\textendash} the organisation or a strategic approach? To do this requires an understanding of where these differences lie in the diversity system of the organisations and the communities that surround them, and where organisations have agency and the ability to act. It also requires an understanding of the interactions within specific contexts between different actors, and the personal and organisational attributes, characteristics and values that support effective diversity actions.

This review provides a preliminary overview of the literature related to systemic and implementation process-focused aspects of human diversity and their relevance to EMS organisations. It examines the diversity and inclusion literature to assess how it can support the practice of implementing effective diversity and inclusion within organisations, with a specific focus on Australian EMS organisations that work with bushfire and natural hazards. It also summarises the current context and factors that shape the Australian EMS, and provides a working definition of effective diversity and inclusion for further development. Finally, it discusses the different components that make up the process of implementing diversity policy and plans within EMS organisations, and some of the challenges for both research and practice. Its key purpose is to identify areas of literature that are potentially useful for the development of a framework to support implementation of diversity throughout the Australian EMS.

}, keywords = {change management and innovation., diversity in emergency services/emergency management sector, diversity systems and diversity process, effective diversity and inclusion, inclusion in the emergency services/emergency management sector, measurement of effective diversity and inclusion, systemic diversity}, isbn = {978-1-86272-780-9}, issn = {360}, author = {Celeste Young and Joanne Pyke and Neelam Maharaj and Bruce Rasmussen and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-5042, title = {Driving into floodwater: A systematic review of risks, behaviour and mitigation}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {31}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, pages = {10}, chapter = {953}, abstract = {

This systematic review summarises the findings of research focused on the risks associated with driving into floodwater. The review aims to compare and document the magnitude of the problem internationally; identifying the risk factors; exploring the application of theories and presence of theoretical models to explain people{\textquoteright}s risky behaviour; and documenting the intervention strategies utilised or proposed. Literature were searched from a number of databases (e.g. PsycInfo, ScienceDirect, Informit) for publication dates to 31 August 2017, then assessed based on their titles, abstracts and full texts and finally 24 articles were selected. This review compares flood fatality data from four countries (Australia, United States, Greece, and Sweden), groups identified risk factors from these selected studies into seven categories, and proposes a holistic integrated intervention model. The results of the review indicate that studies were predominantly conducted in Australia (10 studies) and USA (7 studies). People{\textquoteright}s decisions to drive into, or turn back from, floodwater are identified as a consequence of both their risk perception and the combined impact of all other factors (e.g. individual, social, environmental etc.) that interdependently contribute to shape decision-making, The theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) was the only theory that has been utilised within the literature to understand drivers{\textquoteright} willingness to take risks. Improving people{\textquoteright}s decision-making through educational initiatives, advanced structural mechanisms, regulating existing edicts, and regularly evaluating the effectiveness of current strategies are identified as the best approaches to addressing the challenges in this area. Findings suggest that future studies require data and analysis from a larger range of countries, more comparative analyses within and between countries, an exploration of the relationship between risk factors and their relative level of influence and a greater application of behavioural and decision making theories.

}, keywords = {Behavioural theories, Driving, Drowning, Fatalities, Flood, Risk factors, Risk mitigation measures, Risk perception, Vehicles}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.07.007}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918300323}, author = {Mel Taylor and Katharine Haynes and Mozumdar Arifa Ahmed} } @article {bnh-4461, title = {Effective Representation of River Geometry in Hydraulic Flood Forecast Models}, journal = {Water Resources Research}, volume = {54}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

Bathymetric data are a critical input to hydraulic models. However, river depth and shape cannot be systematically observed remotely, and field data are both scarce and expensive to collect. In flood modeling, river roughness and geometry compensate for each other, with different parameter sets often being able to map model predictions equally well to the observed data, commonly known as equifinality. This study presents a numerical experiment to investigate an effective yet parsimonious representation of channel geometry that can be used for operational flood forecasting. The LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model was used to simulate a hypothetical flood event in the Clarence catchment (Australia). A high-resolution model simulation based on accurate bathymetric field data was used to benchmark coarser model simulations based on simplified river geometries. These simplified river geometries were derived from a combination of globally available empirical formulations, remote sensing data, and a limited number of measurements. Model predictive discrepancy between simulations with field data and simplified geometries allowed an assessment of the geometry impact on inundation dynamics. In this study site, the channel geometrical representation for a reliable inundation forecast could be achieved using remote sensing-derived river width values combined with a few measurements of river depth sampled at strategic locations. Furthermore, this study showed that spatially distributed remote sensing-derived inundation levels at the very early stages of a flood event have the potential to support the effective diagnosis of errors in model implementations.

}, keywords = {artificial neural networks (ANNs), calibration and evaluation, data allocation, data splitting, Emergency management, floods., hydrological models, model evaluation bias}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021765}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017WR021765/full}, author = {Stefania Grimaldi and Yuan Li and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-4977, title = {Effects of prescribed fire and post-fire rainfall on mercury mobilization and subsequent contamination assessment in a legacy mine site in Victoria, Australia}, journal = {National Library of Medicine}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, pages = {9}, chapter = {144}, abstract = {

Prescribed fire conducted in fire-prone areas is a cost-effective choice for forest management, but it also affects many of the physicochemical and bio-geological properties of the forest soil, in a similar manner to wild fires. The aim of this study is to investigate the nature of the mercury mobilization after a prescribed fire and the subsequent temporal changes in concentration. A prescribed fire was conducted in a legacy mine site in Central Victoria, Australia, in late August 2015 and soil sample collection and analyses were carried out two days before and two days after the fire, followed by collection at the end of each season and after an intense rainfall event in September 2016. Results revealed the occurrence of mercury volatilization (8.3-97\%) during the fire, and the mercury concentration displayed a significant difference (p\ \<\ 0.05) before and immediately after the fire. Integrated assessment with number of pollution indices has shown that the study site is extremely contaminated with mercury during all the sampling events, and this poses a serious ecological risk due to the health impacts of mercury on human and ecosystems. In times of climate fluctuation with concomitant increase in forest fire (including prescribed fire), and subsequent precipitation and runoff, the potential for an increased amount of mercury being mobilized is of heighted significance. Therefore, it is recommended that prescribed fire should be cautiously considered as a forest management strategy in any mercury affected landscapes.

}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28987403}, author = {Joji Abraham and Singarayer Florentine and Kim Dowling} } @article {bnh-4424, title = {Efficiency of Individual Tree Detection Approaches Based on Light-Weight and Low-Cost UAS Imagery in Australian Savannas}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {10}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {
The reliability of airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) for delineating individual trees and estimating aboveground biomass (AGB) has been proven in a diverse range of ecosystems, but can be difficult and costly to commission. Point clouds derived from structure from motion (SfM) matching techniques obtained from unmanned aerial systems (UAS) could be a feasible low-cost alternative to airborne LiDAR scanning for canopy parameter retrieval. This study assesses the extent to which SfM three-dimensional (3D) point clouds{\textemdash}obtained from a light-weight mini-UAS quadcopter with an inexpensive consumer action GoPro camera{\textemdash}can efficiently and effectively detect individual trees, measure tree heights, and provide AGB estimates in Australian tropical savannas. Two well-established canopy maxima and watershed segmentation tree detection algorithms were tested on canopy height models (CHM) derived from SfM imagery. The influence of CHM spatial resolution on tree detection accuracy was analysed, and the results were validated against existing high-resolution airborne LiDAR data. We found that the canopy maxima and watershed segmentation routines produced similar tree detection rates (~70\%) for dominant and co-dominant trees, but yielded low detection rates (\<35\%) for suppressed and small trees due to poor representativeness in point clouds and overstory occlusion. Although airborne LiDAR provides higher tree detection rates and more accurate estimates of tree heights, we found SfM image matching to be an adequate low-cost alternative for the detection of dominant and co-dominant tree stands.
}, keywords = {biomass, canopy height, low-cost UAS, segmentation, single tree detection, structure from motion}, doi = {10.3390/rs10020161 }, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/2/161/htm}, author = {Grigorijs Goldbergs and Stefan Maier and Shaun R Levick and Andrew C. Edwards} } @conference {bnh-4803, title = {Emergency management opportunities for remote indigenous communities in northern Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Despite frequent exposure to severe natural hazards including extensive bushfires, tropical cyclones and floods, remote Indigenous communities across northern Australia typically have little engagement in managing, mitigating or planning for such hazards. The BNHCRC scenario planning project explores how remote communities can effectively and sustainably mitigate the risks of natural hazards, and develop effective partnerships with emergency management (EM) decision-making processes. This research integrates and analyses EM resources and services available through various agencies responsible for remote locations, and related EM costs. The project provides opportunities for responsible agencies to engage and plan with remote communities to deliver efficient, cost-effective and culturally appropriate EM services. Scenario planning workshops, applying business as usual and enhanced risk mitigation scenarios, are underway involving active participation of multiple stakeholders including rangers from remote locations namely, Borroloola, Hermannsburg and Yuendumu, representatives from emergency services in the Northern Territory (NT Emergency Services, Fire and Rescue Services, Bushfires NT), the Northern and Central Land Councils, and other local organizations. Initial discussions with rangers and Traditional Owners from the selected remote communities, representatives from the relevant EM agencies, and other interested parties have indicated keen interest for participating in the project. Workshop discussions and associated data analyses will be presented, offering new insights into the delivery of cost-effective and improved EM services that can empower vulnerable remote communities.\ 

}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-5017, title = {Emergency preparedness and planning for animals: a case study in the Blue Mountains, NSW}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, chapter = {50}, abstract = {

Planning for animals in the response and recovery phases of disasters is crucial to mitigate the negative effects that the loss or separation of animals can have. The human-animal bond can influence people{\textquoteright}s decisions during emergencies including how they will respond and when or if they evacuate. This paper uses results of a survey of residents in the Blue Mountains, NSW, who own animals to identify their emergency preparedness and their intended actions in an emergency event. The survey revealed complex animal ownership patterns and respondents showed strong bonds with their pets and were motivated to protect their animals. There was a highlevel of self-reported general emergency preparedness and almost three-quarters of respondents said they included their animals in their emergency planning. However, more than half were unsure where they would take them and a third were unsure if they could take them. Findings suggest that preparedness information be locally specific and consider the complexities of animal ownership, including the need for species-specific resources and information about animals that cannot be evacuated. A case study is used to examine and understand the links between the human-animal bond, disaster preparedness and resilience and the recovery of individuals and communities.

}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/6100/ajem-201810-mccarthy-bigelow-taylor-animal-planning.pdf}, author = {Mel Taylor and Megan McCarthy and Jenny Bigelow} } @conference {bnh-4959, title = {The emergency service volunteer framework: guiding good management in brigades, groups and units}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Volunteers are the backbone WA{\textquoteright}s emergency services, providing support to\ keep the community safe on land or water, come rain, hail, or searing heat.

Turnover rates among emergency services volunteers are high and each lost\ volunteer reflects a loss not only in terms of the financial investment from\ training and equipment, but also of valuable skills and experience.\  The\ Department of Fire and Emergency Services WA (DFES) has conducted\ extensive consultation with volunteers over the past five years in an effort to\ improve the volunteer experience and retention.\ One of the concerns raised during consultation was around the preparedness\ of volunteer leaders to effectively manage their brigade, group, or unit (BGU)\ and the effect that this has on volunteer satisfaction and retention. Volunteer\ leaders are themselves volunteers and it is important that they are provided\ with the necessary training, support, and resources to do their jobs effectively.

To address this concern, DFES partnered with researchers from the University of\ Western Australia (UWA) to investigate gaps in leadership capability and\ create a framework for managing volunteers across the emergency services\ that would provide concrete support and guidance for volunteer leaders.\ 

}, author = {Courtenay McGill and Jennifer Pidgeon and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e}} } @conference {bnh-4796, title = {Emergency volunteering 2030: a sector-wide, management perspective}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

What is emergency volunteering going to look like in 2030? How (and by whom) is it going to be organised? How can the emergency management sector best enable the value of this volunteering for communities - before, during and after emergencies? Researchers at RMIT University are seeking answers to these questions in a three-year project for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC.\  This presentation shares insights from the first stage of this project. It provides a sector-wide, management perspective on what the sector most needs to do to adapt to the future of volunteering. It is based on interviews with 27 managers in volunteerism from across Australian government and non-government emergency management organisations (EMOs).\  Volunteerism managers paint a strong picture of the preferred future as being one where volunteering and management approaches are more flexible and adaptive to the needs of both communities and volunteers, where EMOs have stronger cultures of volunteerism, and where the sector is far more outward-looking and collaborative in its service delivery than it is today. While past research on the sustainability of emergency volunteering has mostly focused on activity at the level of specific management practices, volunteerism managers earmark changes needed at organisational and sector levels. These changes even extend into potential redesign of the ways in which emergency management services are provided to communities in different settings, as well as who is involved in providing them.

}, author = {Tarn Kruger and Blythe McLennan} } @conference {bnh-4797, title = {The emerging imperative of disaster justice}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Disaster justice, a term coined by Verchick (2012), is an emerging field of study focusing on the role of societies, specifically their governing structures, in creating and perpetuating vulnerabilities, inequalities and injustices that are magnified by natural hazards. Disaster justice is a problem of governance, rather than nature or luck, that elicits moral claims for effective and fair disaster management (Douglass \& Miller, 2016). Verchick makes this point succinctly: {\textquotedblleft}In the Anthropocene, there is no such thing as a natural disaster. Anthropogenic carbon emissions amplify the force and frequency of many environmentally triggered events. Land-use planning decisions squeeze some populous communities into the unsafe places where those escalated forces are more likely to land{\textquotedblright} (Verchick, 2016, p. 6). This emerging field thus draws heavily on the related concepts of environmental justice and climate justice.
In this review paper, we first outline how disaster management constitutes a justice issue. We then briefly introduce the different justice concepts applicable to disaster management and finally propose what the concept of disaster justice can do for disaster management.

}, author = {Anna Lukasiewicz and Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-5038, title = {Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

An inexorable link exists between volunteerism and community capability and resilience with respect to disaster risk. Communities and governments increasingly expect emergency management organisations (EMOs) to actively enable and enhance the value of volunteering for communities with respect to building community capability and resilience. This is strongly reflected in disaster management policy in Australia, embodied in the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (COAG, 2011). It is also evident in the United Nation{\textquoteright}s Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction that calls on Nations to encourage {\textquotedblleft}Civil society, volunteers, organized voluntary work organizations and community based organizations to{\textquotedblright}, amongst other things, {\textquotedblleft}advocate for resilient communities and an inclusive and all-of-society disaster risk management that strengthen synergies across groups.{\textquotedblright} (UNISDR, 2015, p.23)\ 

}, issn = {423}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Patrick Dunlop and Darja Kragt and Tarn Kruger and Djurre Holtrop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and John Handmer} } @conference {bnh-4800, title = {Enhancing community resilience through the early childhood education and care workforce}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

In 2011 the clinicians at the Zero-to-Four Child and Youth Mental Health Service identified an increasing number of children entering the service after experiencing severe weather events. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction declared children to be the group most affected by disasters (B. Pfefferbaum, Pfefferbaum, \& Van Horn, 2018). During that same year, there were 332 major weather events around the world. In this period alone, 244.7 million people were impacted by a natural disaster at a cost of USD$366.1 billion (Guha-Sapir, Vos, Below, \& Ponserre, 2012). For five nations, this was their most expensive year for natural disaster. Australia experienced significant flooding and a cyclone, Brazil had a flash flood followed by a mudslide, New Zealand had two significant earthquakes within 6 months, Japan had a major earthquake and tsunami, the US experienced at least 17 separate weather events, South Africa had significant flooding, severe hailstorms were recorded in China, while Philippines experienced 33 separate weather events, and Europe experienced 18 separate events (Guha-Sapir et al., 2012).\ 

}, author = {Sharleen Keleher} } @article {bnh-5262, title = {Estimating grassland curing with remotely sensed data}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences }, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, chapter = {1535}, abstract = {

Wildfire can become a catastrophic natural hazard, especially during dry summer seasons in Australia. Severity is influenced by various meteorological, geographical, and fuel characteristics. Modified Mark 4 McArthur{\textquoteright}s Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) is a commonly used approach to determine the fire danger level in grassland ecosystems. The degree of curing (DOC, i.e. proportion of dead material) of the grass is one key ingredient in determining the fire danger. It is difficult to collect accurate DOC information in the field, and therefore ground-observed measurements are rather limited. In this study, we explore the possibility of whether adding satellite-observed data responding to vegetation water content (vegetation optical depth, VOD) will improve DOC prediction when compared with the existing satellite-observed data responding to DOC prediction models based on vegetation greenness (normalised difference vegetation index, NDVI). First, statistically significant relationships are established between selected ground-observed DOC and satellite-observed vegetation datasets (NDVI and VOD) with an r2 up to 0.67. DOC levels estimated using satellite observations were then evaluated using field measurements with an r2 of 0.44 to 0.55. Results suggest that VOD-based DOC estimation can reasonably reproduce ground-based observations in space and time and is comparable to the existing NDVI-based DOC estimation models.

}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-18-1535-2018}, url = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/18/1535/2018/nhess-18-1535-2018.pdf}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and Wasin Chaivaranont and Jason P. Evans and Yi Y.Liu} } @conference {bnh-4794, title = {Evaluation and calibration of a land surface based soil moisture for fire danger ratings}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

We present the evaluation of high-resolution, JASMIN soil moisture analysis developed for Australia. The prototype JASMIN system has been developed primarily for use in fire and land management. JASMIN produce hourly soil moisture estimates over four soil layers at 5 km horizontal resolution. We evaluate JASMIN against three ground-based networks in Australia. Among the results, the median Pearson{\textquoteright}s correlation obtained for surface soil moisture across the observation networks for JASMIN is between 0.78 and 0.85. JASMIN generally has a better skill than the Keetch-Byram Drought Index and Soil Dryness Index models used operationally in Australia. We also apply and evaluate a few rescaling approaches to the JASMIN soil moisture to facilitate its use in the current operational fire danger rating system. Minimummaximum matching, mean-variance matching, and cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching are the rescaling approaches applied. Validation of the rescaled products is performed using ground-based observations and MODIS fire radiative power data. The rescaling readily enables fire agencies to utilize the JASMIN product in their existing fire prediction models. However, the potential of JASMIN is greatest in the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), currently being prototyped across Australia. Particularly, the ability of JASMIN to estimate soil moisture at several levels is expected to be advantageous in the NFDRS. For example, the Spinifex fuel model implemented in the current NFDRS prototype uses 0-10cm soil moisture as an input.\  This soil moisture information is available natively in JASMIN.

}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {bnh-4547, title = {Evaluation of Survive and Thrive}, number = {359}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, pages = {94}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Survive and Thrive pilot program is an intensive two year bushfire education program for primary school students in Grade 5/6. It is delivered through a community-based partnership between local CFA brigades and local primary schools. To date, the program has been delivered in the localities of Anglesea and Strathewen. In Anglesea, the partnership between Anglesea CFA and Anglesea Primary School was established in 2013 and the program has been running for four years. In Strathewen, the partnership between Strathewen Primary School and Arthurs Creek Fire Brigade was established in 2016 and the program has been running for 18 months.

The purpose of this evaluation was to examine the short-term and intermediate-term outcomes of the program in both Anglesea and Strathewen and to identify the key mechanisms and processes that contributed to those outcomes. By identifying the mechanisms and processes that contributed to program outcomes, the evaluation also seeks to identify what aspects of the program generated the most valuable outcomes for the resources invested. An additional aim of the evaluation was to examine key factors influencing the ongoing sustainability of the program in Anglesea and Strathewen and to identify a possible pathway toward scaled implementation.

The evaluation employed a mixed-methods design involving both quantitative and qualitative methods. The qualitative measures, which included semi-structured interviews and focus group interviews were the main focus; however, these were supplemented by a quantitative survey that was administered to both children and parents.\ \ 

}, keywords = {Bushfire, child, communities., Emergency management, Natural disasters, recovery, reduction, risk}, issn = {359}, author = {Briony Towers and Kevin Ronan} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5105, title = {An evaluation of youth justice conferencing for youth misuse of fire}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, school = {Queensland University of Technology}, abstract = {

This project involved an evaluation of firefighter involvement in Youth Justice Conferencing to determine whether, and if so how, this program facilitates the prevention of youth misuse of fire. Evaluation comprised quantitative analyses of a decade of Youth Justice Conferencing records and recidivism data, alongside qualitative analysis of program practitioner interviews. Findings revealed that, although there are some areas in need of improvement, Youth Justice Conferencing with firefighter involvement contributes to a reduction in the risk of general recidivism, whilst providing an avenue through which to deliver fire safety education to at-risk groups within the community.

}, keywords = {Arson, child-centred disaster risk reduction, conferencing, Fire, firefighter, juvenile, prevention, restorative, youth justice, youth misuse of fire}, doi = {10.5204/thesis.eprints.116520}, url = {https://eprints.qut.edu.au/116520/}, author = {Kamarah Pooley} } @article {bnh-4677, title = {Evidence to support incident management team capability}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {5}, chapter = {44}, abstract = {

In 2015, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) commissioned a review of the evidence base to establish the rationale for capabilities central to effective incident management. The review focused on the capabilities required for senior AIIMS Level 3\ Incident Management Team roles. Results were used to inform standards for the AFAC Emergency Management Professionalisation Scheme. The review considered the human factors and emergency management literature as well as research conducted through the Bushfire CRC. Analysis and synthesis of the evidence identified three broad capabilities, each with three sub-capabilities important in incident management. The three categories were to model leadership and teamwork, to think and plan strategically and demonstrate self-awareness. This article outlines the evidence base and the capabilities developed through this review and contributes to the evidence base for incident management capability. Guidance on what will be needed in continuing professional development program is provided.

}, keywords = {communication, decision-making, Emergency management, EMPS, incident management, multi-hazard.}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jul-2018-evidence-to-support-incident-management-team-capability/}, author = {Owen, Christine and Peter Hayes and Brooks, B and Cameron Scott and Geoff Conway} } @conference {bnh-4778, title = {Experiences in the in-field utilisation of fuels3D}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Fuels3D provides a rapid method to collect quantified information describing fuel hazard using a smartphone. The method requires users to collect a number of photos along a transect within a fuel hazard environment. The photos are processed using photogrammetric algorithms to provide a three-dimensional representation of the fuel, and subsequently estimates of fuel hazard metrics including fuel height, cover and fate (dead/alive). This paper reports on the initial large scale utilisation trial of the Fuels3D fuel hazard workflow. Project end-users from Victoria, South Australia and ACT were provided with a smartphone app (iOS or Android) that allowed photos to be easily collected following the Fuels3D method. End-users were instructed to collect samples within a variety of fuel types and hazards in order to test the potential and limitations of the app.\  These photos were transferred utilising the cloudstor research infrastructure to a processing PC, where estimates of fuel hazard metrics were derived and reported back to end-users.\  Initial results of this trial indicate that Fuels3D is capable of quanitifed estimates of fuel hazard metrics that are more precise than those achieved with visual fuel hazard assessments.

}, author = {Luke Wallace and Karin Reinke and Simon Jones and Samuel Hillman and Adam J. Leavesley and Simeon Telfer and Ian Thomas} } @conference {bnh-4743, title = {Extreme fire behaviours: Surveying fire management staff to determine behaviour frequencies and importance}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

An understanding how bushfires cause damage is important if they are to be effectively managed. Extreme fire behaviours (EFBs) are phenomena that occur within intense fires that have been shown to contribute greatly to their to impacts. However, there exists little understanding regarding how often particular EFBs occur, how these contribute to fire behaviour and what importance should be allocated to each in the development of models for decision support. To address this problem, we surveyed fire fighters from fire and land management agencies in Australia regarding their experiences with EFBs. All fires greater than 1000 ha in the period 2006-2016 were considered in the survey. Representatives were asked which, if any, EFBs they had observed and whether there was any documentation to support these observations. We found that EFBs are common in large fires. In more than 60 \% of case studies, each bushfire had two and more EFBs simultaneously (or one after another). Our survey indicated that Spotting, Crown fires, Pyro-convective events, Eruptive fires and Conflagrations are the most commonly observed EFBs, and so should be a priority for research. The relative commonness of direct evidence available for EFBs is indicative that there should be the potential for further study of these phenomena.\ 

}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @conference {bnh-4773, title = {Filling the gaps: how economics can help make important decisions when information is missing}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

When natural hazard managers need to make decisions about the allocation of resources, there is often information missing that cannot be rapidly obtained. In many cases, these decisions have to be made without waiting for the information to become available. But how can natural hazard managers know that their chosen allocation of resources generates good value for money when there is data missing? There are economic tools available that can support decision making in such cases. We explain how economic analyses cope with missing data and uncertainty. Through case studies, we illustrate how economic tools are used to rank the importance of different pieces of information and to find thresholds where the optimal decision changes. We also demonstrate how these tools can fill-in the gaps when there is little knowledge about a topic, for example, how to explicitly represent intangible values in decision making. The ability of economic tools to manage missing data and uncertainty can provide a wealth of information to natural hazard managers that can help them make better decisions.\ 

}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5019, title = {Flood damage assessment in urban areas}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, pages = {247}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disaster prevention activities are attracting greater priority since prevention is more cost-effective and less uncertain than response, and aligned with the vision and mission of sustainable development. Increasing the resilience of communities and businesses is dependent on the extension of structural and non-structural risk mitigation activities. Hence, the nation-wide frameworks of natural disaster risk management are promoting a global movement from reactive activities (response and recovery) to proactive actions (prevention and mitigation). In Australia, flood risk management is of high priority since flood is a frequent natural hazard with significant financial consequences. Flood risk assessment and flood damage estimation are the primary steps in the flood risk management process because they are essential for the identification and prioritisation of top priority areas, cost-benefit analysis, checking the feasibility of risk mitigation options, selecting best practices in risk reduction and land use planning. This research aims to develop a validated flood damage assessment framework for the geographical area of Australia using historical data collected in several disaster events to inform disaster management policy in support of the development of risk reduction measures. In Australia, due to a lack of empirical data, most damage models are not calibrated with real damage data, and few studies have been conducted on the validation of results. In addition, most approaches are absolute, which is quite rigid and does not easily transfer across time and space. All approaches are of the traditional type, which relies on a deterministic relationship between type or use of the properties at risk and the depth of water. Thus, the interaction of most damage-influencing parameters and the uncertainty of data are neglected. This study has attempted to address these issues and the knowledge gaps.

Firstly, a comprehensive empirical data set including information on damage extent, flood impact variables and resistance factors was collected, and data mining, data preparation and data transformation were conducted. Since the function approach is a common and internationally accepted methodology for estimating the value of flood losses, some new relative multi-parameter flood damage assessment functions were derived, calibrated and validated for the most common residential and commercial building types in Australia. The functions were developed using the bootstrapping approach and considered the inherent uncertainty in the data sample. The performance of the new flood loss functions, in comparison to the empirical data, was contrasted with that of well-known flood damage assessment models from overseas and Australia. The new model was then transferred to a study area in Italy to check the ease of using local empirical data, evaluating the accuracy of the outcome, and assessing the ability to change parameters based on building practices across the world. Flood damage assessment is a complicated process and can be dependent on a variety of parameters which are not considered in stage-damage functions. Accordingly, a treebased model was developed for exploring the interaction, importance and influence of other damage-influencing parameters on the extent of losses. Finally, the candidate has explored the predictive performance of the new approaches (i.e. flood loss functions and tree-based flood loss models) in assessing the extent of physical damages after temporal and spatial transfer. The predictive power of these models was tested for precision, variation and reliability, and was also checked for some sub-classes of water depth and some groups of building type. The advantages of the newly derived stage-damage functions compared to the existing Australian models include: calibration with empirical data, greater accuracy in results, a better level of transferability in time and space, consideration of the epistemic uncertainty of data, transparency of the logic behind the model and the ability to change parameters based on building practices across the world. Furthermore, results of the tree-based analysis showed that while water depth is the most significant damage predictor in the area of study, floor space, private precautionary measures, building value and building quality also correlate with the extent of flood losses.

Also, the tree based models are shown to be more accurate than the stage-damage function. Thus, considering more parameters and taking advantage of tree-based models are recommended. Finally, it has been shown that considering more details of the damaging process can be useful for enhancing the level of transferability of damage models in time and/or space. Overall, this thesis presents a significant contribution to the flood damage assessment process by offering a calibrated and validated flood loss estimation framework. The results provide the input data for subsequent damage reduction, vulnerability mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

}, author = {Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari} } @article {bnh-4676, title = {Flood levee influences on community preparedness: a paradox?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {5}, chapter = {39}, abstract = {

Flood levees are a commonly used method of flood protection. Previous research has proposed the concept of the {\textquoteleft}levee paradox{\textquoteright} to describe the situation whereby the construction of levees leads to a lowered community awareness of the risks of flooding and increased development in the {\textquoteleft}protected{\textquoteright} area. The consequences of this are the risks of larger losses in less frequent but deeper floods\ when levees overtop or fail. This paper uses the recent history of flooding and levee construction to investigate the {\textquoteleft}levee paradox{\textquoteright} through a study of flood preparedness and floodplain development in Lismore, NSW.

}, keywords = {communities, emergency management., Flood, levee, Preparedness}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jul-2018-flood-levee-influences-on-community-preparedness-a-paradox/}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes} } @article {bnh-4678, title = {A formative evaluation of the Triple Zero Kids{\textquoteright} Challenge Teacher{\textquoteright}s Guide}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {6}, chapter = {64}, abstract = {

The\ Triple Zero Kids{\textquoteright} Challenge\ is an online, interactive safety game and a mobile application. It provides young children in Australia with essential information on how to identify and report legitimate emergencies by calling Triple Zero (000). As a companion resource, the Triple Zero Kids{\textquoteright} Challenge Teacher{\textquoteright}s Guide provides educators of lower-primary school students with a series of structured learning activities to consolidate and extend the key messages of the online game. To ensure that the learning activities in the guide are both feasible and appropriate for the target age group, a formative evaluation was conducted with lower-primary students and their teachers. This paper reports on the results of the evaluation and highlights the importance of formative evaluation to the development of safety education programs for children. While the evaluation indicated that the learning activities were feasible and appropriate for lower-primary school students, it also identified the need for numerous modifications and improvements that have been incorporated into a revised 2017 version of the guide.

}, keywords = {children, communication, Emergency management, information., Kids}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jul-2018-a-formative-evaluation-of-the-triple-zero-kids-challenge-teacher-s-guide/}, author = {Briony Towers and Mark Whyrbo} } @article {bnh-5035, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

This report describes the background, research approach and key milestones since the 2016-2017 Annual Report. The report focuses on the analysis of fire spread simulations for two case study landscapes: the ACT and Tasmania. The analysis demonstrates that it is possible to investigate prescribed burning effectiveness at risk mitigation across a range of treatment levels, management values and landscapes, by placing them on a common baseline of risk.

}, issn = {421}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-4586, title = {A fuel moisture content and flammability monitoring methodology for continental Australia based on optical remote sensing}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {212}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, pages = {12}, chapter = {260}, abstract = {

Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) is one of the primary drivers affecting fuel flammability that lead to fires. Satellite observations well-grounded with field data over the highly climatologically and ecologically diverse Australian region served to estimate FMC and flammability for the first time at a continental-scale. The methodology includes a physically-based retrieval model to estimate FMC from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) reflectance data using radiative transfer model inversion. The algorithm was evaluated using 360 observations at 32 locations around Australia with mean accuracy for the studied land cover classes (grassland, shrubland, and forest) close to those obtained elsewhere (r2 = 0.58, RMSE = 40\%) but without site-specific calibration. Logistic regression models were developed to generate a flammability index, trained on fire events mapped in the MODIS burned area product and four predictor variables calculated from the FMC estimates. The selected predictor variables were actual FMC corresponding to the 8-day and 16-day period before burning; the same but expressed as an anomaly from the long-term mean for that date; and the FMC change between the two successive 8-day periods before burning. Separate logistic regression models were developed for grassland, shrubland and forest. The models obtained an {\textquotedblleft}Area Under the Curve{\textquotedblright} calculated from the Receiver Operating Characteristic plot method of 0.70, 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, indicating reasonable skill in fire risk prediction.

}, keywords = {Fire occurrence, Fire risk, Forests., GEOPROSAIL inversion, Grasslands, MODIS, PROSAIL inversion, Shrubs}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425718302116$\#$.WvZrg57h8og.twitter}, author = {Marta Yebra and Xingwen Quan and David Ria{\~n}o and Pablo Rozas Larraondo and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-5091, title = {Fuels3D: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Smartphone technology with high quality sensors are becoming increasing ubiquitous. This technology, when combined with computer visions methods allows for the 3D description of the surrounding environment. This project exploits this technology to provide robust measurement of vegetation structural metrics that can be built into existing fuel hazard assessment frameworks.\ \ Providing key metrics as data products rather than a single end product enables flexibility across jurisdictions and ecosystem types, and capacity to adapt as end-user requirements change.

}, issn = {428}, author = {Karin Reinke and Simon Jones and Luke Wallace} } @conference {bnh-4779, title = {Get ready NSW- fostering all hazards resilience in local communities}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The NSW Government{\textquoteright}s Get Ready NSW program is designed to promote allhazards preparedness and build capabilities for disaster resilience in local communities. The program delivers a suite of tools and resources and fosters community-led preparedness. The involvement of a broader range of organisations across multiple sectors is a key mechanism for building community-wide resilience (Council of Australian Governmnents [COAG] 2011). All communities face multiple hazards; and the 2017 NSW State Level Emergency Risk Assessment (SLERA) (NSW Government 2017) identified a need to develop consistency in all-hazards community preparedness activities at the local level.

}, author = {Sarah Anderson} } @article {bnh-5245, title = {The Good, the bad, and the uncertain: contributions of volunteered geographic information to community disaster resilience}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, abstract = {

The adoption of location-based information sharing technologies, and the emergence of volunteered geographic information (VGI), has seen changes to community involvement in disaster management. The concept of resilience, and recognition of the capacity for renewal, re-organization, and societal development, has gained currency in disaster management. However, the opportunities presented by spatially referenced data for sourcing contextual information for understanding processes of social{\textendash}ecological resilience and fostering local inclusion has not been examined. We examine how web 2.0 platforms, including VGI and social media, can support resilience building, and critically evaluate how these technologies potentially undermine resilience. We concentrate our analysis on factors deemed important for community disaster resilience through review of recent literature, policy documents, and author experience. Establishing which elements of VGI in disaster management should be emphasized, such as increased flexibility or individual empowerment, and which require careful management, such as compromised privacy or data quality, will enable VGI to become less opportunistic, data-centric, disruptive, and exclusionary, and allow for more reliable, community-centric, complementary, and socially inclusive practices. Incorporating awareness and training on collaborative geoweb technologies into disaster preparedness programs will equip individuals to make informed judgments on VGI content and reduce unintended consequences of social media initiatives.

}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2018.00183 }, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2018.00183/full$\#$h1}, author = {Haworth, B and J Whittaker and R{\'o}is{\'\i}n Read and Eleanor Bruce} } @conference {bnh-4804, title = {The Hawaii nuclear alert: how did people respond?}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Nuclear tensions between the United States and North Korea have been extensively reported as both sides postured via threats and propaganda and North Korea conducted missile tests. North Korea{\textquoteright}s leader Kim Jong-Un had promised to decimate the US and was referred to by President Trump as mentally {\textquoteleft}deranged{\textquoteright}. A story in the New York Times in late 2017 based upon consultations with leading security experts suggested that the chance of war breaking out was between 15 and 50 percent (Kristof, 29/11/2017). Given the threat of an attack, U.S. government officials encouraged residents to be prepared and commenced monthly drills to test warning systems.
Within this environment of heightened geopolitical tensions, a single text message was sent in error to people in Hawaii on the 13th of January at 8.07am, warning of an imminent ballistic missile strike.
The alert presents an opportunity to improve the understanding of how people react to warnings of extreme events. Risk Frontiers researchers conducted an analysis of media interviews with 207 individuals (respondents) who received the warnings to identify people{\textquoteright}s attitudes and responses after the alert was received. Interview responses were coded, analysed and are reported in this paper.

}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Ashley Avci} } @conference {bnh-4798, title = {How can business share responsibility for disaster resilience?}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

In Australia, business makes a significant contribution to disaster relief and recovery. Even so, there are unexplored opportunities to enhance the role of business in disaster resilience, particularly through partnerships with government. This paper proposes measures to strengthen partnerships between government and the business sector to enhance national disaster resilience. The extent that state, regional and local level disaster plans engage business in disaster relief and recovery is described and ways to formalise these relationships to enhance the role of business are suggested. Business has a relatively less prominent involvement in disaster resilience. The capacity to strengthen disaster resilience by influencing business practices in disaster prevention, preparedness and risk mitigation is outlined and discussed.

}, author = {Susan Hunt and Michael Eburn} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5108, title = {How does remotely sensed degree of curing and fuel load vary in grasslands and effect modelled fire spread?}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, school = {UNSW}, abstract = {

Wildfire can become a catastrophic natural hazard. Grasslands are the most common fuel type in Australia with nearly 75\% coverage. There are multiple factors, particularly weather and fuel conditions, which dictate the severity of grassland fire. While grassland fires are very responsive to weather conditions, availability and variability in fuels are also important drivers. Here, grassland fuel availability and variability are studied by examining the degree of curing (DOC) and fuel load. DOC is the percentage proportion of dead material in the fuel bed (100\% DOC indicates a fully cured grassland). Satellite data, including recently developed microwave based vegetation optical depth (VOD) and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) along with field observed data, are used to calibrate and evaluate satellite estimated DOC and fuel load models over Australia. Gridded, 8 day estimated DOC is derived via a regression analysis of VOD and NDVI, while gridded, annual estimated fuel load is constructed from aboveground biomass carbon derived from VOD. Both DOC and fuel load have persistent spatial variability across Australia. DOC has a continental mean of 85.7\% and spatial standard deviation of 20.4\%, while grassland fuel load has a mean of 5.9 t ha-1 and standard deviation of 2.5 t ha-1 across all years. DOC shows strong temporal variation in southeast and southwest Australia, while fuel load shows strong temporal variation towards the east coast. Their continental mean temporal standard variations are 11.9\% and 0.5 t ha-1, respectively. Both satellite based DOC and fuel load data are then used in fire spread models (Phoenix RapidFire and Spark) to assess the changes in modelled grassland rate of spread due to spatial variability of DOC and fuel load. Rate of spread experiments are conducted using: 1) idealised experiments with artificial DOC, fuel load, and weather; and 2) realistic experiments using satellite based DOC and fuel load along with weather station data based on past fire events. Results suggest that predicted rates of spread are more sensitive to changes in DOC than fuel load. Observed spatial variations in fuel characteristics can significantly alter the modelled rate of fire spread across a landscape. Phoenix and Spark models predict divergent rates of spread in high fuel load environments (over 15 t ha-1). With an estimated DOC as an appealing alternative to the currently available DOC product, a newly developed annual estimated fuel load over a continental scale, and direct comparison of fire spread simulation between a popular, classic and a recently developed, high potential fire spread models, this thesis pushes the boundary of grasslands fire fuel monitoring and sheds some light on the prediction results of current fire spread models. Grassland fire spread prediction is challenging and requires careful consideration of fuel related parameters and variabilities across space and time, such as DOC and fuel load, as well as selection of fire spread models.

}, url = {https://www.unsworks.unsw.edu.au/primo-explore/fulldisplay?vid=UNSWORKS\&docid=unsworks_52395\&context=L}, author = {Wasin Chaivaranont} } @article {bnh-4571, title = {How emergency services organisations can {\textendash} and do {\textendash} utilise research}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

In emergency management organisations, the drive to use research to inform practice has been growing for some time. This paper discusses findings from a survey used to investigate perceived effectiveness of a number of important processes in research utilisation. In 2016, a survey was completed\  by 266 respondents in 29 fire and emergency services agencies. Questions sought answers on perceived effectiveness in disseminating research within agencies, assessing and evaluating the impacts on agency practice of the research, implementing agency changes that may be needed, monitoring processes to track changes and communicate outcomes of changes made as a result of research. The study found that there were differences in levels of perceived effectiveness between those in senior management and front-line service positions. The differences suggest that front-line services personnel have lower levels of perceived effectiveness in how research is disseminated. The study also found agencies had different approaches to keep up-to-date with research advances. An examination of the activities identified four developmental levels of research utilisation maturity. The findings suggest more work is needed to better understand the enablers and constraints to utilising research to support development of evidence-informed practice.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, lessons management, Research utilisation, research., teamwork}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-apr-2018-how-emergency-services-organisations-can-and-do-utilise-research/}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-4462, title = {Hydrologic model calibration using remotely sensed soil moisture and discharge measurements: The impact on predictions at gauged and ungauged locations}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {557}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, chapter = {897}, abstract = {

The skill of hydrologic models, such as those used in operational flood prediction, is currently restricted by the availability of flow gauges and by the quality of the streamflow data used for calibration. The increased availability of remote sensing products provides the opportunity to further improve the model forecasting skill. A joint calibration scheme using streamflow measurements and remote sensing derived soil moisture values was examined and compared with a streamflow only calibration scheme. The efficacy of the two calibration schemes was tested in three modelling setups: 1) a lumped model; 2) a semi-distributed model with only the outlet gauge available for calibration; and 3) a semi-distributed model with multiple gauges available for calibration. The joint calibration scheme was found to slightly degrade the streamflow prediction at gauged sites during the calibration period compared with streamflow only calibration, but improvement was found at the same gauged sites during the independent validation period. A more consistent and statistically significant improvement was achieved at gauged sites not used in the calibration, due to the spatial information introduced by the remotely sensed soil moisture data. It was also found that the impact of using soil moisture for calibration tended to be stronger at the upstream and tributary sub-catchments than at the downstream sub-catchments.

}, keywords = {Calibration, Remote sensing., Soil moisture, Streamflow forecasting}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169418300131}, author = {Yuan Li and Stefania Grimaldi and R N Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker} } @conference {bnh-4792, title = {Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Strong surface wind gusts and heavy rain are meteorological hazards that are predominantly produced by storms such as east coast lows, tropical cyclones or thunderstorms. Interest in these hazards from a response agency point of view lies in their impact on the natural and built environment. At present, weather forecast models still predict mostly {\textquoteright}raw{\textquoteright} meteorological output such as surface wind speeds at certain times, or rain accumulations over a specified period. This model output needs to be combined with exposure and vulnerability information to translate the forecast hazard into predicted impact.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East-Coast Lows attempts to demonstrate a pilot capability to deliver impact forecasts for residential housing from an ensemble of weather prediction models runs. The project is a collaborative effort between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia.

The project is initially focusing on the wind and rainfall impact from the 20-22 April 2015 east coast low event in NSW. The wind and rainfall hazard data are provided by a 24-member ensemble of the ACCESS model on a 1.3 km grid, with damage data acquired from NSW State Emergency Services (SES) and the Emergency Information Coordination Unit (EICU) for the 2015 event.

We will show that the multi-hazard nature of an east coast low event makes attributing the observed building damage to a single hazard difficult. Wind damage to residential housing in this case is largely due to tree fall. This {\textquoteright}damage-byintermediary{\textquoteright} mechanism requires not just the knowledge of building properties in an exposed area, but also additional knowledge of the surrounding vegetation and its response to strong winds. We will discuss enhancements to the SES/EICU damage survey templates that would lead to improvements in the development of the hazard-damage relationships.

}, author = {Harald Richter and Craig Arthur and Serena Schroeter and Martin Wehner and Jane Sexton and Beth Ebert and Mark Dunford and Jeffrey Kepert and Shoni Maguire and Russell Hay and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-5053, title = {Improved decision support for natural hazard risk reduction: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Natural hazards are an unavoidable component of life in Australia. Analysis shows the average cost of natural hazards in 2015 totalled $9.6 billion, and this figure is projected to increase to $33 billion by 2050. These figures correspond to a substantial impact and coupled with the social and environmental impacts of disasters, paint a bleak picture. However, tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk is a function of today{\textquoteright}s decisions, and with effective adaptation planning there is significant scope to minimise tomorrow{\textquoteright}s impacts. To support improved understanding of future risks and testing of adaptation solutions this project is working on mechanisms to better inform decision making with quantitative tools by working with multiple government agencies.

}, issn = {427}, author = {Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Jeffrey Newman and Aaron Zecchin and Graeme Dandy and Roel Vanhout and Sofanit Araya and Bree Bennett} } @conference {bnh-4788, title = {Improved predictions of extreme sea levels around Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The major hazard in coastal regions is inundation through extreme water levels generated in the ocean through different mechanisms such as storm surges and tsunamis or through a combination of effects such as a relatively small storm surge coinciding with high astronomical tides. With rising in sea level, given water levels will be exceeded more and more frequently as progressively less severe storm conditions are required to achieve that water level. Therefore, it is critical that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and erosion risk-based management and for future planning. To address this concern, this study estimated present day extreme sea level exceedance probabilities due to storm surges, tides and mean sea level around the whole coastline of Australia through the application of a numerical model. The SCHISM hydrodynamic model, forced by TPXO tides and JRA55 atmospheric reanalysis (wind and air pressure), was successfully applied to produce a 59 year sealevel hindcast (1958-2016) for the entire Australian region. The outputs provide uninterrupted hourly sea level records at \<1 km resolution around the Australian coast. Improvements compared to the previous Haigh et al. [1] dataset included: extending the hindcast by six years including several record storm surge events, higher spatial resolution, improved meteorological forcing, and 3-D hydrodynamic model implementation. Other physical processes, missing from earlier studies, were also examined in detail including: effects of surface gravity waves, continental shelf waves, and meteorological tsunamis. Extreme value analysis was applied to the sea level data to predict Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI) at ~2km spacing around the entire Australian coastline including islands. These statistics and relevant plots and time series data have been made available to the public via an interactive web tool, providing a consistent, accessible, up-to-date dataset for use by coastal planners and emergency managers.\ 

}, author = {Charitha Pattiaratchi and Yasha Hetzel and Ivica Janekovic} } @article {bnh-4976, title = {Improvements to wind field generation in physics-based models to reduce spin-up time and to account for terrain, heated earth surface}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Wind is one of the most important environmental variables that affects the wildland fire spread and intensity. Previously, fire analysts and managers have relied on local measurements and site-specific forecasts to determine winds influencing a fire. However, advances in computer hardware increased the availability of electronic topographical data, and advances in numerical methods for computing winds have led to the development of new tools capable of simulating wind flow. Several numerical models have been developed for fire prediction. The most widely used physics-based models come with a limitation of computational expenses, because of which these are not suitable for operational use. Our main intention of this study is to reduce this limitation of physics-based models so that fire forecasts can be made faster and easier. Modelling wind in physics-based models such as Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) has been shown to reproduce promising results, but at an inordinate cost. So, we will be using FDS as physics-based model to simulate fire. There are various methods available to generate wind field in FDS. The conventional methods of wind field generation are either an unperturbed inlet profile with a roughness-trip or the by embedding artificial turbulence at the inlet. The wind fields generated by these inlet conditions are compared with each other as well as to the wind field generated using a mean-forcing method for neutral atmospheric conditions. We have then used these inlet conditions to study the effects of fire spread in FDS. Currently, we are working on introducing a method in FDS known as penalization method, so that we can use real time wind data from other wind models, such as Windninja into FDS and perform fire simulations. Our hypothesis is that introduction of this method would reduce the simulation time of fire cases to some extent and moreover can include terrain effect in the wind profiles.

}, issn = {415}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Sesa Singha Roy and Duncan Sutherland and Nazmul Khan} } @article {bnh-4458, title = {Improving Fire Behaviour Data Obtained from Wildfires}, journal = {Forests}, volume = {9}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, abstract = {

Organisations that manage wildfires are expected to deliver scientifically defensible decisions. However, the limited availability of high quality data restricts the rate at which research can advance. The nature of wildfires contributes to this: they are infrequent, complex events, occur with limited notice and are of relatively short duration. Some information is typically collected during wildfires, however, it is often of limited quantity and may not be of an appropriate standard for research. Here we argue for a minimum standard of data collection from every wildfire event to enhance the advancement of fire behaviour research and make research findings more internationally relevant. First, we analyse the information routinely collected during fire events across Australia. Secondly, we review research methodologies that may be able to supplement existing data collection. Based on the results of these surveys, we develop a recommended list of variables for routine collection during wildfires. In a research field typified by scarce data, improved data collection standards and methodologies will enhance information quality and allow the advancement in the development of quality science.

}, keywords = {data collection and management, Fire behaviour, research utilization, standard.}, doi = {10.3390/f9020081}, url = {http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/9/2/81}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-5037, title = {Increasing residents{\textquoteright} preparedness and planning for natural hazards : annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

This project addresses the following problem statements: 1) what measures can best be used to capture individuals{\textquoteright} preparedness and planning for natural hazards?, 2) how effective are traditional strategies, such as community engagement groups vs. brochures vs. websites vs. advertising in increasing preparedness and planning by residents of hazard prone areas?, and 3) what are some of the key barriers and motivators for residents{\textquoteright} engagement with disaster resilience building activities, and how can strategies be improved to increase preparedness for natural hazards? All problem statements have been addressed within the context of bushfires and floods.

}, issn = {422}, author = {Ilona M McNeill} } @conference {bnh-4790, title = {Large damage bills to buildings from cyclones can be reduced by small actions}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Recent severe tropical cyclones and storms impacting Australian cities and towns have resulted in large financial losses due to damaged buildings and property. Disruption to livelihoods during the repair/rebuilding prolongs recovery for the community. Damage investigations by the Cyclone Testing Station estimate the wind speeds for the majority of the regions investigated were less than the design wind speeds for contemporary construction (i.e. for buildings less than 35 years old). The damage building assessments show a significant proportion of the losses are due to contemporary buildings. This raises issues as to appropriateness of our building construction, Codes, engineering design practices, and ongoing maintenance.

}, author = {David Henderson and Daniel Smith and John Ginger} } @conference {bnh-4775, title = {A lidar-derived fuel map for the ACT}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Many Australian fire managers rely on fuel maps derived from vegetation classifications and time-since-fire via an accumulation curve (e.g. Phoenix Rapidfire). However fuel maps derived using this method lack potentially critical information about pockets of high and low fuel loads. This is important because a poor understanding of fuels was found to be a critical factor in investigations of both the Margaret River and Lancefield prescribed burn escapes. A potential solution for this problem is the use of LiDAR to create spatially-explicit fuel information.

A LiDAR dataset covering the whole of the ACT was flown over a number of months in 201516 using the LAS 1.4 format. The density of returns was 8ppm over the urban area and 4ppm over the remainder of the territory including a large alpine national park that covers 45 percent of the ACT. Bushfire \& Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) research partners arranged for the dataset to be included in feasibility analyses conducted by the Terrestrial Ecology Research Network (TERN) AusCover Landscape Observatory project. A number of fuel-related layers were created based on the Overall Fuel Hazard Assessment (OFHA) and inputs to Project Vesta.

The fuel layers were created at resolutions of 1m, 2m, 5m and 25m in the NetCDF file format. The 25m data were selected for initial assessment because these were the only whole-of-territory datasets easily manipulated in ArcGIS 10. Qualitative assessments indicate: 1) a discernible pattern of fuel variation related to topography; 2) good agreement between LiDAR-derived elevated and near-surface fuel layers and OFHA data collected during the LiDAR acquisition; and 3) good agreement between the LiDAR and fire severity assessments made on burns that were conducted a short time before the acquisition. The next step is to conduct quantitative assessments.

}, author = {Adam J. Leavesley and Albert van Dijk and Marta Yebra} } @article {bnh-5279, title = {A lightning-caused wildfire ignition forecasting model for operational use}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {253-254}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, pages = {16}, chapter = {233}, abstract = {

Lightning-caused wildfires are responsible for substantial losses of lives and property worldwide. Convective storms can create large numbers of ignitions that can overwhelm suppression efforts. Both long- and short-term risk planning could benefit from daily, spatially-explicit forecasts of lightning ignitions. We fitted a logistic regression generalised additive model to lightning-caused ignitions in the state of Victoria, Australia. We proposed a new method for model selection that complemented existing methods and further reduced the number of variables in the model with minimal change to predictive power. We introduced an approach for deconstructing ignition forecasts into contributions from the individual covariates, which could allow model output to be more readily integrated with existing intuitive understandings of ignition likelihood. Our method of model selection reduced the number of variables in the model by 37.5\% with little change to the predictive power. The final model showed good predictive ability (AUC 0.859) and we demonstrated the utility of the model for short term forecasting by comparing model predictions with observed lightning-caused fires over three time periods, two of which had extreme fire conditions, while the third was randomly chosen from our validation dataset. The model presented in this paper shows good predictive power and advancements in model output could allow fire managers to more easily interpret model forecasts.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.01.037}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192318300376}, author = {Nicholas Read and Thomas Duff and Peter Taylor} } @article {bnh-5051, title = {Mapping bushfire hazards and impacts: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Understanding and predicting fire behaviour is a priority for fire services, land managers and sometimes individual businesses and residents. This is an enormous scientific challenge given bushfires are complex phenomena, with\  their behaviour and resultant severity driven by complicated interactions among living and dead vegetation, topography and weather conditions.\ 

}, issn = {426}, author = {Marta Yebra and Geoffrey J. Cary and Albert van Dijk} } @conference {bnh-4768, title = {Mental health and wellbeing in the police and emergency services sector}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

While work in the emergency services sector is vital to the wellbeing of our communities, it can often be demanding and stressful. People who work or volunteer for ambulance, fire and rescue, police and state emergency services can face life and death challenges and at times respond to very distressing situations. Supporting and protecting the wellbeing of police and emergency service employees and volunteers is a key priority across the sector.

beyondblue is currently undertaking the National Mental Health and Wellbeing Study of Police and Emergency Services, with support from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. Phase two of this study involves the first nationally representative survey of police and emergency services workers and volunteers in Australia. This survey, called Answering the Call, is being conducted by The University of Western Australia and Roy Morgan Research on behalf of beyondblue. With participation from over 30 agencies from all Australian states and territories, the survey is investigating the prevalence of wellbeing and mental health conditions, the use of support services and programs, stigma, workplace culture and dynamics and other factors that impact on the wellbeing of police and emergency services personnel.

While results from the survey are expected to be released later in 2018, this presentation will discuss the approach that was taken to measure issues affecting mental health and wellbeing, the challenges faced in conducting the survey; and barriers and opportunities in engaging with agencies across the sector. An overview of what is already known from previous research in police and emergency services agencies and related sectors both in Australia and internationally will also be provided.

}, author = {David Lawrence and Wavne Rikkers and Jennifer Bartlett} } @article {bnh-4686, title = {Motivations and experiences of sheltering in place during floods: Implications for policy and practice}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {31}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, pages = {7}, chapter = {781}, abstract = {

Whilst much research considers evacuation behaviours during floods and other natural hazard events, and how to motivate greater compliance to evacuation orders, there is little research documenting peoples{\textquoteright} reasons for, and experiences of, sheltering at their home or business during floods. Focusing on the experiences of residents and business owners who sheltered during a major flood event, this study explores the motivations for staying during floods, residents{\textquoteright} practices while sheltering, and the attendant challenges and impacts. Semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire were conducted with residents and business owners in the Richmond, Brunswick and Tweed river catchments in New South Wales in the months following an extensive flood event in 2017. The research identified a culture of sheltering during floods in these communities that is passed down through families and communities. Nuanced personal and locally specific factors influenced decisions to shelter, and official warnings and evacuation orders were often considered inaccurate or too late, or disregarded due to {\textquoteleft}warning fatigue{\textquoteright}. Findings also reveal that sheltering can be physically and psychologically challenging, and often involves actively defending people, property, and possessions from floodwaters. This study highlights the critical importance of context to understanding sheltering decisions, and consequently, the need for nuance in emergency management responses and risk communication. It also shows the importance of understanding what sheltering involves and its impacts, particularly given increasing pressure to urbanise and develop flood plains.

}, keywords = {beaviour, communities, emergency management., Evacuation, Floods, response, risk communication}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918304345}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa and Ashley Avci and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Coates, Lucinda} } @article {bnh-5062, title = {The natural hazard sector{\textquoteright}s engagement with Indigenous peoples: a critical review of CANZUS countries}, journal = {Geographical research}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, abstract = {

Natural hazard management agencies across the settler countries Canada, Australia, Aotearoa New Zealand, and the United States (or CANZUS countries) are presently involved in an increasing range of collaborative and consultative engagements with Indigenous peoples. However, perhaps because these engagements are diverse and relatively recent, little has been written about how they emerged and, from these agencies{\textquoteright} perspectives, little is known about how these engagements find their motivation within government natural hazard management frameworks. In this article, we review existing academic and grey literature to categorise the origins of recent and present engagements and then identify and elaborate on the key rationales informing natural hazard management agencies{\textquoteright} interactions with Indigenous peoples. We argue both that the broad principles of sustainability and inclusion have transformed these interactions and that developmentalist approaches and an overemphasis on Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} traditional knowledge can sometimes undermine this work. Incorporating critiques of settler colonialism relevant to the CANZUS context, this review aims to support established, emerging, and future collaborative engagements by investigating and analysing the literature to date.

}, doi = {10.1111/1745-5871.12314 }, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1745-5871.12314}, author = {Annick Thomassin and Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5324, title = {Owner-driven housing reconstruction as a means of enhancing disaster resilience of at-risk communities in India}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, pages = {247}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A key question facing disaster recovery scholars and practitioners is the mode of reconstruction in post-disaster context so as to trigger adaptability in the construction sector and disaster resilience in residents. Despite significant advancement in theoretical understanding of concepts (disaster, disaster risk, vulnerability and socio-ecological systems (SES) resilience) and approaches to post-disaster recovery (process-driven, multi-stakeholder, cross-disciplinary and an owner-driven housing reconstruction (ODHR)), linking reconstruction to resilience remains problematic. The literature review presented in this PhD with Publication discusses two main hurdles in reconstruction contributing to resilience objectives, as: one, a rather narrow focus on one{\textquoteright}s field of expertise and two, the lack of research focused on the long-term impacts of ODHR projects. This PhD with publication aims to identify contingent yet generalisable issues and factors, which determine the success or failure of projects in terms of enhancing disaster resilience and long-term developmental needs of the community.

In order to address the identified gap in the ODHR literature, this PhD has deployed a comparative case study research methodology, predominantly using qualitative/interpretative research methods. A mixed methods methodology, including some methods taken from built environment research and others from the social science, has been used. Four ODHR projects were selected from rural parts of India: two are from Gujarat, following the 2001 earthquake, while the other two case studies are from Bihar, after the 2008 Kosi River floods. The case studies in Gujarat allow investigating the long-term outcomes of the ODHR (13 years after the disaster), Bihar allows for the medium-term outcomes (6 years after the disaster). This research has been conducted in two stages and includes 80 in-depth interviews were conducted, including 34 CSO members, professionals and government official, 37 beneficiaries and 9 nonbeneficiaries.

The research findings from the four ODHR projects prove that the Indian CSOs have been able to link ODHR projects to long-term disaster resilience impacts in ways that have international significance. The CSO practice {\textendash} from 2001 to 2008 {\textendash} had also evolved from being {\textquoteleft}facilitators{\textquoteright} to {\textquoteleft}enablers{\textquoteright}, seeking to build the capacities of locals from the early stages of reconstruction. These findings suggest that the projects where CSOs ensured: 1) systems based\ and strategic envisioning, 2) social mobilisation, 3) proposing minor technical modifications, and 4) sustaining capacity building efforts beyond reconstruction completion or beyond one project life cycle, had the potential to leave a legacy of disaster resilience (self-organising and capable residents). The findings were assimilated in a novel ODHR framework and illustrated in spiral form for use by practitioners, globally. The development of this framework is the most significant outcome of this PhD. However, the author urges practitioners to customise the framework to suit a particular context and to address its systemic challenges, prior to use. The most significant finding of all was a need to enhance people{\textquoteright}s capabilities {\textendash} their freedom to choose {\textendash} to maintain their own disaster resilience.

}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/eserv/rmit:162406/Vahanvati.pdf}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati} } @conference {bnh-4777, title = {Performance of fire detection algorithms using himawari-8}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Accuracy is an important aspect of fire hotspot detection.\  Errors in the H8-AHI WFABBA fire hotspot detection can lead to a loss of trust in a fire hotspot detection product.\  Compared to MODIS and VIIRS polar-orbiting satellites hotspot detections, the WF-ABBA hotspot detection product over Australia 0400 UTC had minimum commission error rates of 31\% (Winter), 35\% (Summer), 48\% (Spring) and 54\% Autumn over 1 Dec 2015 {\textendash} 30 Nov 2016.\  The WF-ABBA algorithm was originally developed for America and was not tuned specifically for the Australian continent.\  Here we create a new Himawari fire-hotspot algorithm tuned dynamically for 419 Australian bioregions.\  The new algorithm 0400 UTC had minimum commission error rates, in comparison to MODIS/VIIR hotspot detections, of 6\% (Summer), 8\% (Spring), 20\% (Winter) and 41\% (Autumn) over 1 Dec 2015 {\textendash} 30 Nov 2016.\  These commission rates are a considerable improvement over the currently available (WF-ABBA) fire hotspot product.

}, author = {Chermelle Engel and Simon Jones and Karin Reinke} } @conference {bnh-4795, title = {Planning and capability requirements for catastrophic and cascading events}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Catastrophic events pose unique challenges and are inevitable. Previous reviews have highlighted gaps in Australia{\textquoteright}s preparedness for catastrophic disasters. Australia has no recent experience of a catastrophe, with the Spanish Flu (1918-1919) and Cyclone Tracey (1974) being perhaps two historic examples that have overwhelmed systems of management. Catastrophic events require the adoption of a whole of community approach. However, this is challenged by the culture of emergency services and wider community apathy. This report provides insights into building increased preparedness to reduce the occurrence of catastrophic disasters based upon a review of the global literature. Implications for practitioners are discussed.

}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Michael Eburn and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-4955, title = {Practical and theoretical issues: integrating urban planning and emergency management}, number = {414}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

This report examines selected examples of integration between urban planning and emergency management in Australia. It seeks to identify initial issues to implementation at National and State level. Overall, this report argues that an integrated approach will require a coordinated framework at the strategic, tactical and operational levels, across functional areas and stakeholders, to establish an effective integrated governance approach that offers desired societal outcomes when faced with extreme events.

The key purpose of urban planning is to bring about improvements and avoid problems in human settlements that would not be achieved without intervention, organization and facilitation (Hall, 2007).\  While urban planning can occur in various forms and can use many mechanisms that seek a range of goals, its actions are primarily oriented to the physical characteristics of cities, towns and regions.\  This combines with the characteristics and distribution of people and the interactions and activities they undertake in various locations as the outcomes of planning.\ 

}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Dovers, Steve and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-5020, title = {Predictive applications of Australian flood loss models after a temporal and spatial transfer}, journal = {Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk }, volume = {9}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, pages = {14}, chapter = {416}, abstract = {

In recent decades, considerably greater flood losses have increased attention to flood risk evaluation. This study used data-sets collected from Queensland flood events and investigated the predictive capacity of three new Australian flood loss models to assess the extent of physical damages, after a temporal and spatial transfer. The models{\textquoteright} predictive power is tested for precision, variation, and reliability. The performance of a new Australian flood loss function was contrasted with two tree-based damage models, one pruned and one un-pruned. The tree-based models are grown based on the interaction of flood loss ratio with 13 examined predictors gathered from flood specifications, building characteristics, and mitigation actions. Besides an overall comparison, the prediction capacity is also checked for some sub-classes of water depth and some groups of building-type.

It has been shown that considering more details of the flood damage process can improve the predictive capacity of damage prediction models. In this regard, complexity with parameters with low predictive power may lead to more uncertain results. On the other hand, it has also been demonstrated that the probability analysis approach can make damage models more reliable when they are subjected to use in different flooding events.

}, keywords = {damage assessment, Disaster risk reduction, flood risk, Natural hazards, predictive capacity}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19475705.2018.1445666}, author = {Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari and Tuan Ngo} } @conference {bnh-4769, title = {Prevalence and predictors of mental health in firefighters}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Firefighters{\textquoteright} role in emergency management exposes them to a range of stressors. It is recognised that a small but sometimes significant proportion of firefighters will develop mental health problems that may create significant distress and costs to the individual and the fire service. However, the literature is inconclusive not only about the prevalence of the commonly experienced mental health disorders associated with exposure to potentially traumatic events (Heinrichs et al., 2005; Del Ben et al., 2006; Regehr et al., 2003), but also about the range of factors associated with their development (Marmar et al., 2006; Meyer et al., 2012; Di Gangi et al., 2013).

This paper presents the findings of a longitudinal study of mental health in Australian firefighters that is being conducted in the course of a PhD. 335 firefighters from four Australian fire services completed a self-report survey twice, 12 months apart, and 300 firefighters participated in a structured clinical interview. The purpose of the study was to establish the prevalence rates, and the factors which contributed to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety and alcohol disorder in this sample of career and volunteer firefighters.

}, author = {Heather Bancroft} } @conference {bnh-4789, title = {Real people, real stories- if it{\textquoteright}s flooded forget it}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Between 2000 and 2015, 178 people died from floods in Australia.\  Despite the strong messaging from emergency services, people continue to drive or walk through floodwater, putting their lives at risk. In response, the NSW State Emergency Service has developed a range of video stories depicting people{\textquoteright}s decision making processes and experiences entering floodwater and activated them as part of a comprehensive social media campaign - thereby incorporating a modern day approach to engage with the community about the dangers of entering floodwater.\  The videos present the real people recounting their decision to drive through floodwater, the consequences of their actions and the take home message.\  Evidence from commissioned research and research from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre determined the themes of these stories.\  The stories include: Sonya, a mother that crossed a flooded river due to peer pressure from her passengers; Peter, a farmer who nearly drowned after entering floodwater to rescue cattle; Tom, a young man that entered floodwater to impress girls in the car and Jaime, a mother who turned around for fear of putting the lives of her children at risk. During the 6 week campaign, the content was seen over 800,000 times, and videos were viewed more than 400,000 times. The campaign reached over 150,000 individual young men in NSW, and over half a million more people outside of the target group.\  Engagement with the campaign was also high, with 28,000 people liking, sharing, or commenting. In 2016 the project was awarded the Government section of the NSW Resilient Australia Awards.\ 

}, author = {Samantha Karmel} } @conference {bnh-4809, title = {Real-time flood inundation mapping for flood intelligence {\textendash} a case study from India}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Bihar is India{\textquoteright}s most flood-prone State, with 76 percent of the northern population living under the recurring threat of flooding. Annual monsoon floods claim lives and destroy homes and livelihoods, seriously impacting the economy and poverty alleviation efforts. The Bagmati River is one of Bihar{\textquoteright}s major rivers, draining the Kathmandu Valley in the foothills of the Himalayas before entering flat agricultural plains of Northern Bihar.

With no pre-existing flood modelling or mapping, this project started with a blank worksheet, with the objective to forecast flooding a week ahead of occurrence, and generate real-time inundation mapping resulting from embankment failure.\  The project established a flood forecasting framework which loads and processes data from national and international sources and provides an interface for real-time hydrologic and hydraulic modelling.

The project faced many challenges, particularly related to availability of data. Despite these challenges, a flood forecasting framework has been established which provides capacity for evolution of the system, has supported local capacity building and will greatly improve understanding of flood behaviour. The system represents a step-change improvement for flood forecasting systems integrating multiple hydrologic and hydraulic models, and allowing forecasters to understand in real-time the impact of topographic changes to the floodplain.

}, author = {Ben Caddis and Carrie Dearnley} } @conference {bnh-4784, title = {Reducing bushfire risk to vulnerable community members through health and community services agencies {\textendash} business continuity approach}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The Department of Fire and Emergency Services{\textquoteright} (DFES) At Risk Communities Program was developed as a result of findings from the 2009 Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission and the Keelty Inquiry into the 2011 Perth Hills Bushfires. Both the Royal Commission and Inquiry identified service gaps around people considered most vulnerable (being at risk) in a bushfire, and a need to address this gap. The At-Risk Communities program targets vulnerable members of the community who may be at greater risk of injury or death due to their inability to receive, understand or act on information during a bushfire emergency. It aims to address the gaps in service delivery by targeting the ageing population and those living with disabilities who live in their own homes that may be considered vulnerable due to the above. The program{\textquoteright}s purpose is to help at risk people to be better prepared for bushfire emergencies, by working with the Health and Community Services Agencies (Agencies) that provide a critical link to these community members, who often live in isolation.

}, author = {Suzanne Blyth} } @conference {bnh-4739, title = {Research proceedings from the 2018 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Conference}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC annual conference 2017}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The full research proceedings\ from the 2018 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC conference, held in Perth from 5 - 8 September. The document contains two sections. Section one is peer reviewed, full conference papers. Section two is non-peer reviewed extended abstracts.

}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-5040, title = {Resilience to clustered disaster events at the coast: final project report}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Coastal communities in Australia are particularly exposed to clustered disaster events, due to the impact of cyclones and extra-tropical storms when there can be coincidence of severe wind damage, storm surge, coastal flooding and shoreline erosion. Because the climatic drivers of cyclones and severe storms are stronger during or across specific years (e.g. during La Ni{\~n}a periods), these events often repeatedly impact the coast over periods of weeks to months. The consequences of individual events are therefore exacerbated with little or no opportunity for recovery of natural systems or communities.

}, issn = {424}, author = {Scott Nichol} } @conference {bnh-4975, title = {Responses to the Lombok earthquake, 2018 {\textendash} Rapid assessment study}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The recent earthquake that occurred in Lombok in August, 2018 presented an opportunity to study the responses of those affected in the immediate aftermath of the event. We find that tourists caught up in disasters are uniquely vulnerable. Few followed the encouraged actions of what to do in the event of an earthquake and were largely reliant on local residents and tourist operators for advice in the immediate aftermath. This article summarises the earthquake, how people responded and provides some reflections for policy makers.

}, author = {Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Andrew Gissing and Ashley Avci} } @conference {bnh-4772, title = {Risk modelling as a tool to support local government emergency management}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Due to our growing exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards, it is increasingly important for local government to have tools to better understand natural hazard risk and enable effective emergency management. One such tool is risk modelling, an innovative way for local government to assess, prioritize, communicate and manage its natural hazard risks. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 reflects the importance of risk modelling, where it calls for the development, application and strengthening of models for disaster risk management at the global and regional level. A variety of natural hazard risk modelling tools have been developed, which are increasingly used by government and private organizations. However, to date little research has gone into how effective risk modelling is as a tool to support local government emergency management. This presentation shares the results from recent research on understanding the perceptions that local government emergency managers have on the value of risk modelling tools. While emergency managers see the value in the use of risk modelling relating to communication, decision-making, planning and emergency response purposes, they also see a number of challenges. Challenges identified for the use of risk modelling relate to how emergency management and natural hazard risk is perceived and managed, issues with connecting information and developing data, and the capability of risk modelling software. However, with ongoing mutual engagement, risk modelling can become an effective tool to communicate natural hazard risk and better inform emergency management policy and procedure.

}, author = {Miles Crawford} } @article {bnh-4556, title = {Risk modelling as a tool to support natural hazard risk management in New Zealand local government}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {28}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, pages = {10}, chapter = {610}, abstract = {

Due to New Zealand{\textquoteright}s exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards, it is important for local government to have tools that enable effective use of its natural hazard risk information. This paper explores the use of risk modelling as a tool that can support local government to better understand, manage, and communicate natural hazard risk. Focus group sessions were held with\ emergency management\ and other natural hazard practitioners in councils across New Zealand to understand their perceptions on the value of risk modelling tools, particularly {\textquoteleft}RiskScape{\textquoteright}. While practitioners see the value in the use of risk modelling relating to communication,\ decision making, planning and\ emergency response\ purposes, they also see a number of challenges. Challenges identified for the use of risk modelling relate to how emergency management and natural hazard risk is perceived and managed, issues with connecting information and developing data, and the capability of risk modelling software. Underlying these challenges is the recognition that while risk modelling can help span the science-policy interface, it is the problems with this interface that slow its development. However, with ongoing mutual engagement, risk modelling can become an effective tool to communicate natural hazard risk and better inform natural hazard policy and procedure.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Local government, Natural hazard risk management, Risk modelling, RiskScape, Science-policy, Tsunami.}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.01.011}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918300529}, author = {Miles Crawford and David Johnston and K Crowley and W S A Saunders and S H Potter} } @article {bnh-5033, title = {Sampling and data analysis of field sites in NSW}, number = {419}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Fuel reduction burning (FRB) is used as a risk mitigation strategy for unplanned fires by altering fuel loads and changing fire behaviour. This involves temporary removal of accumulated fuels of the near-surface and surface fuel layers (Fernandes and Herminio 2003). As the main intention of FRB is to reduce the risk to life and property, associated environmental impacts are often overlooked (Sohngen and Haynes 1997; Gharun et al. 2017a). Fire has a major role in altering biodiversity, carbon and hydrological balances, and can be the cause of soil erosion. As such, changes due to disturbance caused by FRB need to be investigated, and, where practical, integrated into management operations (Gharun et al. 2017a). As planning by fire agencies becomes more sophisticated and accountable, environmental management objectives for FRB need to consider maintenance of high-quality water sources, reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and conservation of biodiversity.

}, author = {Bell, Tina and Danica Parnell and Malcolm Possell} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5268, title = {Seismic assessment of reinforced concrete buildings in Australia including the response of gravity frames}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Over recent years there has been a growing need to assess the seismic performance of potentially vulnerable buildings in Australia in order to make informed risk mitigation decisions. The aim of this study has been to assess the seismic performance of in-situ reinforced concrete (RC) buildings under 10-storeys high and constructed prior to 1995. This class of buildings has been identified to be particularly vulnerable to earthquakes due to the relatively low natural periods of buildings in this height range, and lack of consideration given to seismic design and detailing. The buildings assessed have core walls as the lateral load resisting system, also referred to as the primary system, and perimeter moment resisting frames together with band-beam or flat-slab floor systems as the gravity load resisting system, also referred to as the secondary system. There have been concerns about the displacement compatibility between the primary and secondary system and the loss of axial load carrying capacity of the gravity system (resulting in the total collapse of the building) prior to or immediately after the primary system loses its lateral load carrying capacity. Therefore, the assessment of the buildings conducted in this study has involved the seismic performance of both the lateral load resisting system and the gravity load resisting system.

The assessment procedure adopted in this study has been in line with the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) assessment framework. The main outcome of the study has been the development of fragility curves, thus the three key stages of the PBEE assessment process have been undertaken, including: hazard analysis, structural analysis, and damage analysis.

The hazard analysis stage involved conducting a review of the seismic hazard models developed for Australia. The most recent models which have been proposed for the Australian earthquake loading standard, AS 1170.4, have resulted in significant reductions in hazard values in comparison to the current hazard model in AS 1170.4:2007. However, there has been a lack of consensus amongst researchers about the changes and hence the proposed models are still under development. Therefore, in this study the evaluation of the seismic performance of the buildings has been based on the current hazard model in AS 1170.4:2007.

Furthermore, a detailed study was conducted to investigate the validity of the method used in AS 1170.4:2007 for incorporating local site effects. The study demonstrated the importance of considering site period, rather than the average shear wave velocity up to a depth of 30 m, in understanding the seismic site response. Based on the findings, re-classification of the site classes in AS 1170.4:2007 were recommended, with an emphasis on site period as a key criteria in classifying soil/soft rock classes. A new systematic method was also proposed for obtaining the displacement response spectra. This method helps to significantly improve the prediction of displacement response in the short period range up to the second corner period at which maximum spectral displacement response occurs.

The structural analysis phase was conducted by developing archetypal buildings for assessment. An investigation was conducted to obtain the history of the design of RC buildings in Australia to provide an understanding of the existing building stock, including typical building configurations and design detailing. This was achieved by speaking to and corresponding with experienced practicing structural engineers and from reviewing older editions of the Australian concrete structures and loading standards. Based on the findings six archetypal buildings were designed. Three buildings heights were investigated; 2-, 5-, and 9-storeys, and for each building height two plan configurations were analysed; one with plan symmetry and the other with plan asymmetry.

The expected governing failure mechanisms of the building components were identified, including the core walls, beam-column joints, columns and beams. This was achieved by reviewing reconnaissance reports and experimental studies for buildings and building components with similar detailing to the archetypal buildings. In general, it was identified that the building components were vulnerable to brittle failures and experiencing significant strength and stiffness degradation after the peak capacity was reached. This is because the buildings which have been assessed have a poor quality of detailing; typically referred to as non-ductile or seismically non-conforming detailing in the literature.

In order to develop the 3-dimensional nonlinear models of the archetypal buildings a critical review of the existing state-of-the-art approach for modelling non-ductile RC building components in a macro-finite element modelling space was conducted. The modelling methods investigated included the incorporation of the inelastic response of beam-column joints, flexural response of members, bar-slip of longitudinal reinforcement bars, flexure-shear behaviour of members, and methods for modelling non-planar walls. The review revealed that there was a lack of consensus amongst researchers about the best method to model the various building components for the purpose of global analysis. Therefore, various modelling approaches were evaluated by examining their performance against three key criteria: accuracy, computational efficiency, and numerical stability and reliability. The accuracy of the various models was predominantly examined at a component level by comparing simulated results with experimental results. The computational efficiency, and the numerical stability and reliability of the various modelling approaches were examined based on running simulations at a component level and then at a system level where the approach was utilised in 2D and 3D nonlinear models. In general, it was evident that the two competing modelling approaches suitable for global analysis could be broadly characterised as the distributed plasticity and the lumped plasticity approaches. Based on the three key criteria, the lumped plasticity approach was selected to be the most suitable and reliable approach for global analysis of non-ductile buildings analysed up to the point of axial load failure of the building components.

Nonlinear dynamic time history analyses were conducted to obtain the seismic performance of the archetypal buildings. The ground motion records were selected such that they were characteristic of Australian earthquakes, they include a combination of: stochastically generated rock records, historical records, and simulated records on various site conditions. Damage analysis of the buildings was achieved by using the cloud analysis method to develop the probabilistic seismic demand model of the buildings at various performance levels. Careful consideration was given to selecting suitable intensity measure and accounting for various uncertainties to develop the fragility curves. Finally, the seismic performance of the buildings was evaluated by comparing the response obtained from fragility curves with respect to performance objectives. The results illustrated that the plan-asymmetric buildings and the 2-storey plan symmetric buildings were particularly vulnerable to exceeding the Life Safety limit state under a 500 year return period event and the Collapse Prevention limit state under a 2500 year return period event if located on soft sites.

}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/214753}, author = {Anita Amirsardari} } @article {bnh-4692, title = {Seismic retrofit of exterior RC beam-column joint using diagonal haunch}, journal = {Engineering Structures}, volume = {174}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is typically the weakest link in a limited-ductile RC frame structure. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for reducing the seismic demand at the joint. Previous research globally has focused on implementing double haunches, whilst the performance of using single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favourable retrofit option has not been investigated. In this study, the feasibility of using a single haunch system for retrofitting RC exterior beam-column joint is explored. This paper presents the derivation of the key formulations for the implementation of a single diagonal haunch as well as the generalization of the formulations for all three systems: the non-retrofitted subassembly, the double haunch retrofitting system, and the single haunch retrofitting system. The formulations have then been validated by available experimental data for non-retrofitted subassembly and double haunch retrofitting system. Finally, the effectiveness of the single haunch retrofitting system is compared with that of the double haunch retrofitting system through a parametric study.

}, keywords = {Exterior beam-column joint, limited-ductile, RC frame, Seismic retrofit, Single diagonal haunch.}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141029617328857}, author = {Zabihi, Alireza and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-5009, title = {Seismic retrofit of precast soft-storey building using diagonal steel-shape memory alloy bracing device: Numerical investigation}, journal = {Advances in Structural Engineering}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, abstract = {

A diagonal steel-shape memory alloy bracing device is proposed for seismic retrofitting of vulnerable building frame structure. Superelastic shape memory alloy bar is put in series with steel bars in the bracing. The device makes use of the loading plateau of superelastic shape memory alloy to limit the tensile force of diagonal bracing. A precast soft-storey building frame in Australia was selected for a case study. A numerical model of the frame was developed and validated with the results from full-scale pull-down field tests. Nonlinear time history analysis was then conducted to evaluate the seismic performance of the frame with different retrofitting strategies. The result shows that the diagonal steel-shape memory alloy bracing can reduce the displacement demand on the soft-storey frame. Meanwhile, the level of tensile force of steel-shape memory alloy bracing can be controlled by the force plateau of the shape memory alloy bar, which is recommended to be 20\% of the yielding force of the steel bar. The lower tensile force demand could alleviate the force demand at the associated support connections.

}, keywords = {diagonal bracing, retrofit, shape memory alloy, soft-storey building, superelastic}, doi = {10.1177/1369433218800939}, url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1369433218800939}, author = {John Wilson and Hing-Ho Tsang and Xiaoxian Liu} } @article {bnh-5064, title = {Should we leave now? Behavioral factors in evacuation under wildfire threat}, journal = {Fire Technology}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {30}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Wildfires pose a serious threat to life in many countries. For police, fire and emergency services authorities in most jurisdictions in North America and Australia evacuation is now the option that is preferred overwhelmingly. Wildfire evacuation modeling can assist authorities in planning evacuation responses to future threats. Understanding residents{\textquoteright} behavior under wildfire threat may assist in wildfire evacuation modeling. This paper reviews North American and Australian research into wildfire evacuation behavior published between January 2005 and June 2017. Wildfire evacuation policies differ across the two regions: in North America mandatory evacuations are favored, in Australia most are advisory. Research from both regions indicates that following a wildfire evacuation warning some threatened residents will wish to remain on their property in order to protect it, many will delay evacuating, and some residents who are not on their property when an evacuation warning is issued may seek to return. Mandatory evacuation is likely to result in greater compliance, enforcement policies are also likely to be influential. Self-delayed evacuation is likely if warnings are not sufficiently informative: residents are likely to engage in information search rather than initiating evacuation actions. The wildfire warning and threat histories of a location may influence residents{\textquoteright} decisions and actions. The complexities of behavioral factors influencing residents{\textquoteright} actions following an evacuation warning pose challenges for wildfire evacuation modeling. Suggestions are offered for ways in which authorities might reduce the numbers of residents who delay evacuating following a wildfire warning.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, delay, Evacuation, human behavior, modeling, Wildfire}, doi = {10.1007/s10694-018-0753-8 }, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10694-018-0753-8}, author = {Jim McLennan and Barbara Ryan and Christopher Bearman and Keith Toh} } @article {bnh-4819, title = {Simulation of fuel bed ignition by wildland firebrands}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, abstract = {

A 3-D mathematical model of fuel bed (FB) ignition initiated by glowing firebrands originating during wildland fires is proposed. In order to test and verify the model, a series of experiments was conducted to determine the FB ignition time by a single pine bark and twig firebrand (Pinus sylvestris). Irrespective of the pine bark sample sizes and experimental conditions, the ignition of the FB was not observed. Conversely, pine twigs, under certain parameters, ignited the FB in the range of densities (60{\textendash}105 kg m-3) and with the airflow velocity of >=2 m s-1. The results of the mathematical modelling have shown that a single pine bark firebrand <=5 cm long with a temperature of T <= 1073 K does not ignite in the flaming mode the FB, and only the thermal energy of larger particles is sufficient for flaming ignition of the adjacent layers of the FB. The analysis of the results has shown that the firebrand length is a major factor in the initiation of ignition. Comparison of the calculated and observed FB ignition times by a single firebrand have shown that our modelling accords well with the experimental results.

}, keywords = {critical conditions, experiment, ignition, modelling, spotting.}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF17083}, author = {O. V. Matvienko and D. P. Kasymov and Alex Filkov and O. I. Daneyko and D. A. Gorbatov} } @conference {bnh-4766, title = {Simulations of the waroona fire with the access-fire coupled fire atmosphere model}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model has been coupled to a fire spread prediction model called ACCESS-Fire (Monash and Melbourne universities, publication in preparation). The ACCESS-Fire model presents a coupled fire-atmosphere modelling capability that is linked to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology{\textquoteright}s operational weather forecasting system.\ 


The fire spread code in ACCESS-Fire is implemented by a level set solver and includes several fire spread models, including options for Rothermel, McArthur and CSIRO forest and grassland. It uses high-resolution topography and detailed fuel maps can be included as available. The sensible and latent heat energy fluxes from the fire are passed back to the atmospheric code through the land-surface scheme JULES. The fire model has been built into the ACCESS high-resolution nested suite using an advanced graphical user and scheduler interface.

ACCESS-Fire simulations have been run on the Waroona fire, which burnt over 68,000 ha south of Perth in January 2016. Over 160 homes were destroyed and there were two fatalities. During the first two days of the fire, there were four episodes of extreme fire behaviour. Two separate pyrocumulonimbus events developed and two evening ember storms occurred. The fire behaviour at the Waroona fire was driven by three dimensional fire-atmosphere interactions, and such processes can be examined using a coupled fire-atmosphere model.

This paper will describe key features of the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESSFire and present results from simulations of the Waroona fire. Features of the simulations include fire-modified winds in the environmental flow, dynamic plume effects near steep topography and exploration of pyrocumulonimbus processes.

}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} } @article {bnh-4469, title = {Sleep in wildland firefighters: what do we know and why does it matter?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, chapter = {73}, abstract = {

Wildland firefighters perform physical work while being subjected to multiple stressors and adverse, volatile working environments for extended periods. Recent research has highlighted sleep as a significant and potentially modifiable factor impacting operational performance. The aim of this review was to (1) examine the existing literature on firefighters{\textquoteright} sleep quantity and quality during wildland firefighting operations; (2) synthesise the operational and environmental factors that impact on sleep during wildland firefighting; and (3) assess how sleep impacts aspects of firefighters{\textquoteright} health and safety, including mental and physical health, physical task performance, physical activity and cognitive performance. Firefighters{\textquoteright} sleep is restricted during wildfire deployments, particularly when shifts have early start times, are of long duration and when sleeping in temporary accommodation. Shortened sleep impairs cognitive but not physical performance under simulated wildfire conditions. The longer-term impacts of sleep restriction on physiological and mental health require further research. Work shifts should be structured, wherever possible, to provide regular and sufficient recovery opportunities (rest during and sleep between shifts), especially in dangerous working environments where fatigue-related errors have severe consequences. Fire agencies should implement strategies to improve and manage firefighters{\textquoteright} sleep and reduce any adverse impacts on firefighters{\textquoteright} work.{\textquoteleft}

}, keywords = {Health, performance, physical activity, planned burn, safety, sleep restriction, wildfire.}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17109}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/pdf/WF17109}, author = {Grace Vincent and Brad Aisbett and Alexander Wolkow and Sarah M Jay and Nicola D. Ridgers} } @article {bnh-4738, title = {Southeast Australia Aboriginal fire forum}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report was written as part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre{\textquoteright}s {\textquoteleft}Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities{\textquoteright} research project (BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s HCIC). The HCIC research project focuses on collaborations between Aboriginal groups and natural hazards management agencies across southern Australia (see further Appendix 3). The BNHCRC is funded through a combination of Commonwealth research monies, as well as financial and in-kind contributions from government organisations, research institutions and nongovernment organisations. We were invited to attend the Forum and write this report by the Murumbung Rangers, with whom we have one of our case study relationships; nevertheless, this is an independent research report written with respect to the HCIC project{\textquoteright}s research priorities. The Forum facilitators, Coolamon Advisors, prepared an official Forum Report which summarises key findings and provides recommendations emerging from the speakers and participants over the first two days of the forum (Coolamon Advisors 2018). This research report includes excerpts from the Forum Report in textboxes. These reports are valuable for the work of key actors involved in cultural burning, whether they attended the forum or not.

}, keywords = {culture, Fire, indigenous, mitigation, Natural hazards}, issn = {413}, author = {Will Smith and Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-5261, title = {State-of-the-art review and future research directions for FRP-to-masonry bond research: Test methods and techniques for extraction of bond-slip behaviour}, journal = {Construction and Building Materials}, volume = {20}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, abstract = {

The effectiveness of FRP retrofits is heavily reliant on the shear bond that can be developed between the FRP and masonry substrate, which has been the focus of experimental research for almost two decades. This paper collates and critically reviews previous experimental work on the shear bond between FRP composites and masonry substrates, identifying 1583 individual pull-tests across 56 published studies. Whilst the pool of existing data is significant in terms of number of tests, it encompasses a rather narrow range of substrate material, FRP material and retrofit configuration. Most notably, the majority of tests have been undertaken on clay brick substrates, carbon FRPs and externally-bonded retrofits. By contrast, testing of natural stone substrates and near-surface-mounted retrofits has been limited. Significantly, the review identifies considerable inconsistency in the test arrangements, instrumentation methods, and data processing techniques for extracting local bond-slip properties, which has undoubtedly hindered the development of a unified bond model and codifiable design rules. Methods of extracting bond-slip behaviour from test data are critically reviewed, and importantly it is shown through numerical examples that without adequate instrumentation it is not possible to reliably extract this behaviour from standard pull-tests. Finally, suggestions for adequate instrumentation and a framework for undertaking bond-slip behaviour extraction through inverse analysis are presented. Significantly, the experimental database compiled as part of this work-thought to be the largest of its kind to date{\textemdash}is made openly available as an accompanying Data in Brief article with the intent that it will facilitate development of bond-strength models for FRP bonded to masonry.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2018.06.103}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0950061818314934}, author = {Jaroslav Vaculik and Phillip Visintin and Michael Griffith and N.G.Burton and R.Seracino} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5260, title = {Statistical models for the location of lightning caused wildfire ignitions}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, pages = {258}, school = {The University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Lightning-caused wildfire is a significant concern for fire management agen\ cies worldwide. Unlike other ignition sources, lightning fires often occur in\ remote and inaccessible locations making detection and suppression particularly challenging. Furthermore, individual lightning storms result in a large\ number of fires clustered in space and time which can overwhelm suppression\ efforts. Victoria, Australia, is one of the most fire prone environments in the\ world and the increased frequency of large-scale landscape fires over the last\ decade is of particular concern to local wildfire management authorities.\ This thesis is concerned with modeling lightning-caused wildfire ignition
locations in Victoria. Such models could be used for predicting daily lightning\ caused ignition likelihood as well as simulating realistic point patterns for use\ in fire spread models for risk analyses.

The first half of this thesis looks at regression models. We review methods\ for the model selection, validation, approximation and interpretation of generalised additive models. A review of performance metrics, such as the AUC,\ shows the difficulties and subtleties involved in evaluating the predictive performance of models.\ We apply this theory to construct a non-linear logistic regression model\ for lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria. The model operates on a daily time\ scale, with a spatial resolution of 20 km and uses covariate data including fuel\ moisture indices, vegetation type, a lightning potential index and weather.\ We develop a simple method to deconstruct model output into contributions\ from each of the individual covariates, allowing predictions to be explained in\ terms of the weather conditions driving them. Using these ideas, we discuss\ ranking the relative {\textquoteleft}importance{\textquoteright} of covariates in the model, leading to an\ approximating model with similar performance to the full model.\ The second half of this thesis looks at point process models for lightning\ caused ignitions. We introduce general theory for point processes, focusing
on the inhomogeneous Poisson process, cluster processes and replicated point\ patterns. The K-function is a useful summary function for describing the\ spatial correlation point patterns and for fitting models. We present a method
for pooling multiple estimates of the K-function, such as those that arise when\ using replicated point patterns, intended to reduce bias.

We fit an inhomogeneous Poisson process model as well as a Thomas and\ Cauchy cluster process model to the Victorian lightning-caused ignition dataset. The cluster process models prove to have significantly better fit than the\ Poisson process model, but still struggle to reproduce the complex behaviour\ of the physical process.

}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/bitstream/handle/11343/214157/Statistical\%20models\%20for\%20the\%20location\%20of\%20lightning-caused\%20wildfire\%20ignitions\%2C\%20Nicholas\%20Read.pdf?sequence=1\&isAllowed=y}, author = {Nicholas Read} } @article {bnh-5263, title = {Strategic adaptation pathway planning to manage sea-level rise and changing coastal flood risk}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {87}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, pages = {9}, chapter = {92}, abstract = {

Communities around the world are already committed to future sea-level rise. Long-term adaptation planning to manage associated coastal flood impacts is, however, challenged by uncertainty and contested stakeholder priorities. This study provides a proof of concept for a combined robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) approach in coastal flood risk management. The concept uses model-based support and largely open source tools to help local government plan coastal adaptation pathways. Key steps in the method are illustrated using a hypothetical case study in Australia. The study shows how scenario discovery can provide multi-dimensional descriptions of adaptation tipping points which may inform the development of technical signpost indicators. Transient scenarios uncovered limitations in seemingly robust adaptation policies, where historical path dependencies may constrain the rate of adaptation and the extent to which future coastal flood impacts can be successfully managed. Lived values have the potential to offer insights about non-material social trade-offs that residents may need to accept for the benefit of reduced flood risk, and could form a basis for defining socially-oriented signpost indicators. However, the nuances and subjectivity of lived values means that ongoing engagement with residents is essential as part of a combined RDM and DAPP approach to preserve the communities{\textquoteright} way of life. The learnings from this hypothetical case study suggest that testing in a real world participatory setting could be valuable in further developing a combined RDM and DAPP approach to plan adaptation pathways and manage future coastal flood risk.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2018.06.001}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901118303678}, author = {Timothy Ramm and Christopher Stephen Watson and Christopher J. White} } @conference {bnh-4782, title = {A systematic approach to embedding safety, well-being and risk management when responding to interstate and international deployments}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The State of Victoria is a signatory to a variety of mutual aid arrangements to support partner agencies both interstate and internationally, during times of emergency.
The Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), Parks Victoria, Melbourne Water, and VicForests, as Forest Fire Management Victoria (FFMVic), contribute to an overall Victorian deployment group when requests are made.
Notwithstanding, DELWP, and its FFMVic partners, has legislative obligations to ensure, as far as is reasonably practicable, the health and safety of our workforce including whilst deployed interstate and internationally under the control of partner agencies.
Working in strange landscapes with different people, systems, practices and equipment present a range of heightened risks for FFMVic personnel. Additionally, deployments frequently transpire when the requesting state / country has been managing protracted and large-scale events associated with widespread natural disasters and impacts on local communities.
Sound and comprehensive deployment planning and processes are the foundations to begin to mitigate those increased risks. Additionally, it has been recognised that planning for the wellbeing and safety of our staff extends well beyond the deployment window.
High level systems for managing emergencies fall under the Australasian Interservice Incident Management System (AIIMS). This system is nationally recognised and relatively consistent across Australia.
Yet, for on-ground management, control agencies have agency-specific safety systems, operational protocols, plant, equipment and tactics. These are best reviewed in advance of a specific deployment request to ensure that they are understood and are of an acceptable standard. If FFMVic believe them to be insufficient, additional mitigations and controls may need to be considered to ensure FFMVic staff are deployed into a safe workplace.
This paper presents a risk based approach and methodology to comparing partner agencies{\textquoteright} safety systems. FFMVic has already carried out comparisons with a range of partner agencies and high-level learnings from these reviews will be presented.

}, author = {Julian Smith and Graeme Dudley and Andrew Stanios and David Sayce and Andrew Collins} } @conference {bnh-4774, title = {A systematic exploration of the potential for bushfire risk mitigation with prescribed burning}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Fire regimes vary widely across Australian ecosystems as a function of climate, fuel, terrain and ignition variations. Fundamentally such variation will not only shape the way that prescribed burning can reduce risk to human and environmental assets but also the scope for effective treatment. While many agencies are moving toward planning systems based on risk assessment, knowledge of the best way to use prescribed fire to reduce risk to key values is generally lacking. The BNHCRC Project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for prescribed burning{\textquotedblright}, combines simulation and empirical approaches to improve our understanding of how risk to any particular management value will respond to variations in the spatial location and rates of treatment. Here, we present the modelling framework and key results for two landscapes, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. We run a large number of simulations using the PHOENIX RapidFire model, investigating the interaction between fuel treatment and location under various weather scenarios. Key outputs for risk assessment include area burnt, house loss, life loss, roads and powerlines damaged, environmental cost and economic cost. Across both case study landscapes, greater levels of prescribed burning tend to result in reduced wildfire impacts on all risks. However, there is considerable variation in the rate of reduction in risk, including the amount of treatment required to achieve key targets. Further, the particular combination of weather factors underpinning given fire weather conditions (e.g. temperature vs wind driven) can substantially impact the overall level of risk, as well as the response to prescribed burning.\ 

}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price} } @conference {bnh-4801, title = {Teacher-facilitated child-centered disaster resilience education program: a study in Bangladesh}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, author = {Mayeda Rashid and Kevin Ronan and JC Gaillard} } @conference {bnh-4787, title = {Transformative culture of disaster risk management as an enabler to resilience}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) reviewed international disaster risk methodology with the view to developing a fit for purpose application that could be applied at the local as well as State level and would literally inform risk-based planning. The review focused on the three international tenants of disaster risk management: avoiding the creation of new risk; reducing existing risk; and managing residual risk. This review also specifically examined vulnerability assessment, determining residual risk and prioritisation for planning across the three levels of government that comprise Queensland{\textquoteright}s Disaster Management Arrangements.

}, author = {John Rolfe} } @article {bnh-4584, title = {Using a worldview lens to examine complex policy issues: a historical review of bushfire management in the South West of Australia}, journal = {The International Journal of Justice and Sustainability }, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

The scale and intensity of bushfire activity in Australia is likely to increase as a result of climate change. Effective bushfire management policy measures are therefore essential to minimise the interrelated social, environmental and economic impacts of fire in the landscape. This paper presents a historical review of bushfire management in the South West of Australia (SW): a bushfire prone and biodiverse region. Using a worldview framework to analyse key policy documents and literature, the paper demonstrates that the evolution of complex policy sectors such as bushfire management, is influenced not only by scientific and technical developments but also as a result of changing worldviews. Adapting the Integrative Worldview Framework (IWF), seven worldview categories that dominated particular periods of history in Australia are presented. These worldview categories are then used to examine the evolution of bushfire management practice, policy and institutional arrangements relevant to the SW. The argument presented herein is that a better understanding of worldviews and how they influence complex and contentious policy fields such as bushfire management, is useful for policy analysis, reflexive practice and research. The paper suggests an integrative worldview approach, which enables opportunities for exchanges and constructive conflict between stakeholders and agencies with diverse worldviews, could contribute to creating more sustainable bushfire management. Finally, it is argued that opportunities for Indigenous and Western worldview exchanges in the bushfire management sector, through collaborative knowledge partnerships could assist the sector in both management practice and policy formulation.

}, keywords = {Australia., bushfire management, governance, Policy, sustainability, worldviews.}, doi = {10.1080/13549839}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13549839.2018.1467390?scroll=top\&needAccess=true}, author = {Simone Ruane} } @conference {bnh-4901, title = {Utilising grassroots engagement to drive cultural change}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) has undergone significant change over recent years. This level of change within the department has proven challenging from a cultural perspective.\  In effect, QFES is an amalgam of cultures from three very different services, with staff identifying strongly with their service of origin.\  For many, the potential loss of cultural identity and the feeling of {\textquoteleft}constant change{\textquoteright} has been challenging to accept.

Given the extent of change, it has been imperative for QFES to better understand how its staff are managing through these changes.\  Since 2013, assessments have been undertaken into workplace climate through the annual Queensland Government Working for Queensland Employee Opinion Survey.\  To complement these, in 2015, the Commissioner{\textquoteright}s Future of QFES survey was also conducted to gauge elements of QFES{\textquoteright} culture.\  Both surveys provide valuable information on the workplace pre- and post-merger, however do not necessarily provide a full assessment.

}, author = {Joanne Robinson} } @article {bnh-4433, title = {Valuing recovery through risk ownership}, journal = { Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

As the risks encountered by natural hazards change and become more dynamic, so too, does the task of recovering from them. To manage natural hazards, planners must plan for the unexpected; building resilience before, during and after events. Currently, recovery funding is limited to a two-year window. Devastated communities that do not recover during this time rely on ad hoc funding to support patchy recovery beyond this. Planning for long-term recovery needs to be embedded throughout the risk assessment process to be effective. This presents a number of challenges. By identifying the longer-term risks and their consequences in advance, sustained recovery can be planned for all social, environmental and economic values (assets). This will determine what recovery interventions may be needed and when they are likely be most effective.

}, keywords = {emergnecy mangement., recovery, resiliance, risk ownership}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/5025/ajem-33-01-17.pdf}, author = {Celeste Young} } @conference {bnh-4802, title = {Volunteering into the future {\textendash} disaster events, local governments \& communities}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

This century presents us with many environmental challenges and the various types of hazardous events can impact urban, rural and remote communities in different ways. In Australia, councils are the closest level of government to community and many are planning and trialing a range of options to better deal with future disaster events.

The paper reports on findings from RMIT University researchers{\textquoteright} first stage of a Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project. The research looks at how the emergency management sector over the next decade can best enable the value of volunteering for communities before, during and after emergencies. It explores local governments{\textquoteright} experiences with volunteering around disaster recovery and their views about a preferred future for this volunteering. It describes some of the ways councils work together with community groups and volunteers both trained and those who come forth in response to a disaster, to enhance resilience and recovery.

The research considers ideas about the emergency management (EM) sector and the need to shift and draw upon different perspectives to involve different people to broaden approaches. Improving governance structures, particularly at the state level was considered essential for moving towards the preferred future. There is a need for on-going investment in the provision of a supportive and enabling infrastructure for volunteering such as state-wide data-bases. These can enable engagement, recruitment and preparation of volunteers from across regions to support local government and communities. Interviewees highlighted the need for reform in disaster funding for the recovery process as critical and the need for ratification between state and federal government so local governments and communities have confidence in the EM space. This paper will provide a picture of what the future might look like as local governments strive to adapt to the challenges of the 21st century.

}, author = {Tarn Kruger and Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-5016, title = {When joining is not enough: emergency services volunteers and the intention to remain}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, chapter = {35}, abstract = {

Volunteer turnover is a continuous concern for emergency services organisations. Using a psychological contract perspective, this paper examines how meeting the initial expectations of volunteers when they join an emergency service is related to the volunteer{\textquoteright}s intention to remain with that service. A survey was undertaken by 539 emergency services volunteers in Western Australia after volunteering for about a year. The survey included questions about reasons why volunteers joined the service, activities they expected to undertake as a volunteer, their evaluation of the volunteering experiences in the first year and their intent to stay. Using Latent Class Analysis of their expectations, three types of volunteers were identified. These were {\textquoteleft}focused{\textquoteright} volunteers (having well-defined expectations), {\textquoteleft}lost{\textquoteright} volunteers (lacking clear expectations except for serving the community) and {\textquoteleft}overenthusiastic{\textquoteright} volunteers (expecting status, reputation and career progression among other things). The results showed that the focused volunteers had participated in more activities and had a higher intent to remain a volunteer. Having too few or too many expectations seems to have negative consequences. Therefore, emergency services organisations could strive to understand and shape volunteer expectations to match a new volunteer{\textquoteright}s experience by using better aligned recruitment practices.

}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/6099/ajem-201810-kragt-dunlop-gagne-holtrop-luksyte-volunteer-retention.pdf}, author = {Darja Kragt and Patrick Dunlop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte} } @article {bnh-4467, title = {Wind load fluctuations on roof batten to rafter/truss connections}, journal = {Journal of Wind Engineering \& Industrial Aerodynamics}, volume = {175}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, abstract = {

Batten to rafter connections in light framed housing can be vulnerable to progressive or cascading failures where a localised failure can cause the loss of a large section of the roof envelope. The synchrony of loads at neighbouring connections may affect the initiation of such failures. A 1/50 length scale wind tunnel model study was performed on a gable roof house to record spatial and temporal pressure fluctuations on the roof surface and data were studied to determine the flow separation mechanisms causing different loading patterns on batten to rafter connections. The cross correlation between load time histories was used to give a measure of synchrony between loads experienced at neighbouring connections and indicate the direction that fluctuations move across the roof. Orthogonal wind directions result in 2-dimensional flow separation that produce more synchronous loads at batten to rafter connections than cornering wind directions, where conical vortices produce high uplift forces on connections. The patterns of loading and their correlations give a means of identifying which parts of the roof and which approach wind directions may result in the initiation of a progressive failure of batten to rafter connections.

}, keywords = {Correlation of loads, Light framed structures, Low-rise buildings, Progressive failures., Wind tunnel study}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2018.01.032}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167610517304506}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and David Henderson} } @conference {bnh-4799, title = {Working from the inside out to improve utilisation of research in decision making}, booktitle = {AFAC18}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Perth}, abstract = {

The most common model for research is still often one where research is produced largely by researchers and delivered to users in the form of data, reports and papers. However if research is to be used it requires the blending of two very different knowledge systems: those of research and practice. Their integration in a transdisciplinary research environment is absolutely necessary if research is to be usable and serve the implementation needs of practitioners and policy makers. Implementation of research in the field of natural hazards is complex because it is a systemic issue and requires a highly collaborative model; one where diverse parties work together to achieve common goals. This can be an uncomfortable space particularly for researchers because this process starts in a fundamentally different place. It requires researchers to develop understanding from inside end user contexts rather than develop knowledge from outside it. It is a process of matching the knowledge to the need and tailoring information so end users can use it. Communication is a key part of this and active listening and negotiation are crucial.\  The inside out methodology was developed in 2006 and has since been used to develop a number of practitioner frameworks including the Risk Ownership Framework for Policy and Practice. These frameworks integrate research into decision making systems through co-designing solutions that evaluate end users context, their decision making systems and the drivers that inform them. It is however not without its challenges. This paper outlines some of the key components that are part of this research model.\ 

}, author = {Celeste Young} } @article {bnh-4506, title = {Assessment of Displacement Demand for Earth Retaining Structures}, journal = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, year = {2017}, abstract = {

Earth retaining walls and bridge abutments are part of the key infrastructure in support of a modern transportation system. Assessment of the structural safety of a retaining wall in seismic conditions is considered in this paper. Present work deals with systematic review of analytical modelling of seismic actions on retaining walls. Experimental investigation for finding displacement demand of scaled down retaining wall models has been discussed. A detailed experimental investigation has been recommended for ensuring the accuracy of the analytical modelling approach.

}, keywords = {abutment, displacement, performance, Retaining wall, seismic, similitude.}, url = {http://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/453-Rohit-Tiwari.pdf}, author = {Rohit Tiwari and Nelson Lam and Elisa Lumantarna} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4653, title = {Changing Fire Regimes in Tropical and Subtropical Australia}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, pages = {190}, school = {University of Queensland}, address = {St Lucia}, abstract = {

The focus of the study is to investigate regional and local past, present and future changes in fire regimes of tropical and subtropical Queensland and shifts in vegetation composition and structure. Fire has been shown to be a significant driver of ecosystem evolution, composition and distribution through its impact on biota. Within Australia fire has long played a role in shaping the landscape, with increased fire frequency, associated with heightened aridity, over the last five million years promoting the expansion of fire adapted sclerophyll vegetation across the continent. Evidence of anthropogenic fires date back to approximately 50 ka (thousand years ago) with the advent of Aboriginal occupation and fire-stick practices, however with the arrival of Europeans there was a decline in fire frequencies, related to fire exclusion that observes an increase in fire intensity and severity. A review of the introduction of tropical African perennial grasses to improve grazing in tropical and semi-arid regions of northern Australia was also undertaken. This introduction has resulted in some exotic grass species such as Gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus), Mission grass (Cenchrus polystachios syn. Pennisetum polystachion) and Guinea grass (Megathyrsus maximus syn. Panicum maximum Jacq. var. trichoglume) becoming invasive pests. Invasion by these exotic grasses has serious implications for ecosystem function, altering fire regime dynamics through increasing the distribution and abundance of fine fuels. With increased fine fuels there is a serious danger that there will be an increase in fire frequency and intensity resulting in higher severity burns and higher vegetation mortality, with possible local species extinctions and habitat modification or change. Macro charcoal and pollen records were used from Fraser Island, subtropical eastern Australia to identify fire and vegetation histories, which show substantial temporal and spatial changes in past fire frequencies and vegetation composition for the last 24,000 years. Pollen records show pyrophobic rainforest taxa dominated and then declined while pyrogenic sclerophyll arboreal taxa increased correlating with an increase in fire frequencies, and a dryer climate. This was followed by a dramatic increase in Restionaceae values at the beginning of the Holocene (~10,000 years ago) that dropped off as a marked peak in mangroves, primarily the Rhizophoraceae and Melaleuca iii occurred, possibly linked with sea level rise approximately 6000 to 5000 years ago, which was also associated with lower fire frequencies. Restionaceae then recovered from around 2 ka to the European settlement period, when a dramatic change in fire frequency occurred linked to fire suppression and was followed by vegetation thickening (i.e. increase in arboreal taxa) in the mid to late 20th century. Vegetation thickening was investigated on Fraser Island through land change analysis of aerial photographs and survey data between 1958 and 2016 of a wetland system at Moon Point. This was undertaken using the Land Change Modeller (IDRISI TerrSet), with results showing that forest and woodland communities have invaded the fringes of a restiad dominated wetland. Pollen results from adjacent sediment cores support the occurrence of vegetation thickening that appears to be linked to marked changes in fire regimes on the island associated with European management since the 19th century. A projection of further landscape change was made to 2066 and this suggested a 30\% loss in wetland extent by this time under present fire frequencies (i.e. with a mean of approximately one fire every plus/minus 12 years). Identifying past and present fire regimes and vegetation composition are important for fire modelling as this provides possible scenario based probabilities for changes in fire frequency and intensity. Modelling is useful in that it provides managers with a tool to ascertain possible scenario based outcomes depending on the input values. Here the FireBGCv2 fire simulation model has been applied to an Australian context to provide a research simulation platform for exploring fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics that can be directly applied to fire management applications. Fire has played an integral role in shaping the Australian landscape, with fire regimes driven by both climatic and anthropogenic factors during the late Quaternary period. Evidence of shifts in vegetation and fire regimes for the subtropics of Australia can be seen from pollen and charcoal analysis, with dramatic changes occurring over the past 24,000 years on Fraser Island. With the arrival and settlement of Europeans in the mid19th century, fire regimes were once again changed that resulted in further vegetation shifts due to a fire exclusion policy. Further shifts in fire regimes can be seen in tropical northern Australia through the introduction on invasive grasses increasing fuel loads and iv fire frequency, resulting in a transformed landscape, perpetuating a fire grass cycle. However in the subtropics alterations in fire management have seen a reduction in fire frequency with a thickening of vegetation along the ecotone of E. minus wetlands and sclerophyllous forests at Moon Point on Fraser Island. The complexities of fire regimes for managers is obvious, therefore there is a need for a dynamic mechanistic fire simulation model that managers can use as a tool to project present and future fire events.

}, keywords = {burning, Fire, fire impacts, fire regime, grassland, Great Sandy region., history, Queensland}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.14264/uql.2018.66}, author = {Philip Stewart} } @article {bnh-4627, title = {A comparison of the discrete cosine and wavelet transforms for hydrologic model input data reduction}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, abstract = {

The treatment of input data uncertainty in hydrologic models is of crucial importance in the analysis, diagnosis and detection of model structural errors. Data reduction techniques decrease the dimensionality of input data, thus allowing modern parameter estimation algorithms to more efficiently estimate errors associated with input uncertainty and model structure. The discrete cosine transform (DCT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) are used to reduce the dimensionality of observed rainfall time series for the 438\ catchments in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) data set. The rainfall time signals are then reconstructed and compared to the observed hyetographs using standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. The results convincingly demonstrate that the DWT is superior to the DCT in preserving and characterizing the observed rainfall data records. It is recommended that the DWT be used for model input data reduction in hydrology in preference over the DCT.

}, keywords = {communities, emergency management., Flood, hydrological models, wavelet}, doi = {10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017}, url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/3827/2017/hess-21-3827-2017.html}, author = {Ashley Wright and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4459, title = {Disaster in Relation to Attachment, Loss, Grief and Recovery: The Marysville Experience.}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The thesis is a study of the post-2009 Black Saturday bushfire community of Marysville. The central research question asks: {\textquoteleft}How did survivors of the Marysville Black Saturday bushfire experience attachment, loss and grief in the post-fire recovery process?{\textquoteright} This informs two specific sub-questions, which are: {\textquoteleft}What were the experiences of Marysville residents in the aftermath of the fire, particularly regarding their sense of attachment, loss and grief?{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}What can we understand about attachment, loss and grief in disaster recovery from their experiences?{\textquoteright}

To answer these questions the research includes my own autoethnographic story utilising the technique of evocative autoethnography to which is integrated the technique of analytical autoethnography, thereby providing a thorough theoretical base for qualitative research and data collection. In addition to the autoethnographic research, further phenomenological and ethnographic data collection and analysis consisted of 18 formal in-depth interviews, 16 semi-formal interviews and 49 informal interviews (a total of 83 interviews), which accounted for about a third of the Marysville population at that time.

The research also involved extensive literature and document collection and review. Heuristic and naturalistic analyses were used to interpret and make sense of the information. Data collection concluded in late 2013; however, analysis, interpretation and member checking continued throughout the project. Findings emerged as two main themes, replete with examples, or illustrations.\ The two themes are:

1. Attachment: the importance of post-disaster attachment behaviour in relation to people, possessions, pets, place and participation (the five Ps) particularly as related to topophilia and solastalgia.\ 

2. Disempowerment: the post-disaster effect upon individuals and the community when they effectively have the ability to make their own decisions removed from them at both micro and macro levels.

Of central importance in this study is the identification of a post-disaster phenomenon I have conceptualised and named as {\textquoteleft}Post-Disaster Attachment Trauma{\textquoteright} (PDAT). This is a new revelation that describes a disruption to the natural processing of early attachment-related human loss and grief responses, particularly regarding initial appraisal and searching behaviours. It results in further trauma which may delay and complicate grieving and recovery for individuals and community alike.

When combined, the findings related to post-disaster attachment behaviour, topophilia, disempowerment, solastalgia and Post-Disaster Attachment Trauma make for a powerful description and compelling explanation of what many Marysville bushfire survivors have experienced.

The research findings make their contribution to knowledge by discovering and explaining elements of individual and collective post-disaster experiences, particularly the role of attachment behaviour in recovery. The findings have implications for individual and collective resilience, recovery and mental health. They will benefit policy makers, therapists, government agencies and non-government organisations in the way they assist post-disaster individuals and communities in the future.

This work is important because perhaps the lessons learned and knowledge gained will benefit future disaster survivors worldwide so they may not have to experience much of what the people of Marysville have struggled with since Black Saturday, 2009.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, communities, emergency management., fire impact, fire severity}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/eserv/rmit:162288/Barton.pdf}, author = {David Barton} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4629, title = {Estimating areal rainfall time series using input data reduction, model inversion, and data assimilation}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {146}, school = {Monash University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are devastating natural hazards that can have severe socio-economic impacts and lead to a loss of life. Consequently, the key driver for this research is to provide techniques that will lead to an increase in flood forecast skill. As fluvial floods are a direct result of rainfall, detailed knowledge of uncertainties in rainfall observations provides a fundamental foundation for improving both rainfall and flood forecast skill. As the understanding of uncertainties present in rainfall time series is developed, so too will the confidence in rainfall forecasts, and short- and long-term streamflow forecasts. For a description of rainfall uncertainty to be complete it must take into account uncertainty when rainfall was not observed, thus allowing, model structural errors to be correctly identified, analyzed, and treated. Therefore the focus of this thesis is to develop a robust methodology to estimate rainfall time series and its uncertainty such that it is consistent with both streamflow and soil moisture observations. To effectively estimate rainfall time series, a method to reduce hydrological input data dimensionality was identified. The effective reduction of hydrological input data dimensionality allows modern parameter estimation algorithms to simultaneously estimate rainfall time series and model parameters. Due to their wide-spread use as model input data reduction techniques in other fields, the discrete cosine transform (DCT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) were used, for comparative purposes, to reduce the dimensionality of observed rainfall time series for the 438 catchments in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) data set. Once the time series were reduced to a small number of parameters, the rainfall time series were reconstructed for comparison with the observed hyetographs. The rainfall time signals are then reconstructed and compared to the observed hyetographs using standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. Analysis of the results demonstrate that, when compared to the DCT, the DWT is superior at preserving both short- and long-term rainfall patterns. Second, the DWT was used to reduce the dimensionality of the input rainfall time x series for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The DREAM(ZS) sampling algorithm, in conjunction with a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow, was then used to estimate the input rainfall time series. Model parameters and rainfall time series were simultaneously estimated. The inclusion of rainfall in the estimation process improved the root mean square error (RMSE) of streamflow simulations by a factor of up to 1.78. This was achieved while estimating an entire rainfall time series, inclusive of days when none was observed. Last, rainfall time series for the catchment of Warwick were estimated using three different rainfall-runoff models. Using the rainfall time series and model parameter estimates, remotely sensed soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth observing system (AMSR-E) satellites were assimilated into each of the models using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Through analysis of the innovations from the observed and simulated soil moisture it was found that the combination of model choice and remotely sensed soil moisture product had a significant impact on the quality of rainfall estimated. When compared to streamflow simulations obtained via the sole estimation of model parameters, all models that jointly estimated rainfall time series and model parameters produced superior streamflow estimates. Rainfall estimates obtained using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model were the most realistic. When the SMOS remotely sensed soil moisture product was assimilated into the SAC-SMA, innovations that indicated errors are of a Gaussian nature were obtained. Further, streamflow simulations obtained from the SAC-SMA had the best RMSE. The research presented in this thesis developed a methodology that can be used to estimate and evaluate rainfall estimates obtained using model input data reduction, model inversion, and data assimilation techniques. These rainfall estimates can be used to condition rainfall forecasts and consequently improve flood forecast skill.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, hydrology, modelling., rainfall}, url = {http://users.monash.edu.au/~jpwalker/theses/AshleyWright.pdf}, author = {Ashley Wright} } @article {bnh-4626, title = {Estimating rainfall time series and model parameter distributions using model data reduction and inversion techniques}, journal = {AGU}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, abstract = {

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise, and timely flood forecasts, there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated within an entire rainfall time series, even when rainfall was not observed. The estimation of an entire rainfall time series and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of entire rainfall input time series to be considered when estimating model parameters, and provides the ability to improve rainfall estimates from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate entire rainfall time series from streamflow records are unable to adequately invert complex nonlinear hydrologic systems. This study aims to explore the use of wavelets in the estimation of rainfall time series from streamflow records. Using the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia, it is shown that model parameter distributions and an entire rainfall time series can be estimated. Including rainfall in the estimation process improves streamflow simulations by a factor of up to 1.78. This is achieved while estimating an entire rainfall time series, inclusive of days when none was observed. It is shown that the choice of wavelet can have a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. Combining the use of a likelihood function that considers rainfall and streamflow errors with the use of the DWT as a model data reduction technique allows the joint inference of hydrologic model parameters along with rainfall.

}, keywords = {catchments, communities., Emergency management, Flood, rainfall, streamflow}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017WR020442}, author = {Ashley Wright and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5149, title = {Flood management in a changing climate}, year = {2017}, month = {05/2017}, pages = {405}, school = {Australian National University}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

In 2010-2011 Australia experienced its most expensive floods in history with costs to insurers and state and federal governments exceeding A$10 billion. Climate and population changes are likely to increase future flood threats and economists estimate that by 2050, even without factoring in climate change, Australia{\textquoteright}s natural disaster damage bill could reach $33 billion per year. Flood management is thus a key area for improving adaptive capacity. While\ the causes of flooding are well-known, effective solutions have proved elusive and some flood management options may be maladaptive in the longer term. There were contradictions in flood management literature. Some sources categorized structural measures such as dykes and levees as adaptation measures. Others warned about their negative impacts. Meanwhile, innovative approaches used overseas appeared little known or used in Australia. Although structural measures were often criticized in adaptation literature, there was a lack of guidance about how to reduce reliance on them. Similarly, resilience researchers with a social-ecological systems perspective argued the need to identify policy and institutional interventions that would make it possible to move from undesirable to more desirable resilience domains. The challenge was therefore to determine how best to adapt to increasing flood risk, and how to facilitate the adoption of adaptive approaches. A key question was whether adaptive approaches used elsewhere were transferrable to Australia. Given the dominance of resilience theory in modern disaster management, a related research aim was to determine whether or not disaster resilience policy was likely to achieve adaptive outcomes. Literature review was the primary research method, supplemented with semi-structured interviews. Sources included recent flood reviews, academic literature, policy and legal documents. These were used to develop comparative case studies from China, The Netherlands, the United States and Australia. This was extended to cover global organizations for the resilience component of the work. Data analysis drew on literature relating to adaptation, resilience, comparative public policy, institutional theory and emergency management. Resilience interpretations were identified in a systematic way using a modified emergency management framework, complemented with narratives. Results revealed that resilience interpretations varied according to country, with Australia tending to be the least adaptive and the Netherlands the most. This reflects changes in attitudes towards structural mitigation. While support for structural mitigation remains strong in Australia, recent flood events in other countries have exposed its weaknesses. This has resulted in a shift to reduce levee dependency, accompanied by support for alternatives such as ecosystem based measures and development relocation. Such measures encounter significant barriers in Australia, making policy transfer problematic. Nevertheless, case studies revealed opportunities to improve program implementation, and investigation of path dependency associated with structural mitigation identified opportunities to alter feedbacks. Regarding application of resilience theory to disaster management, it was found that while resilience is a useful concept for researchers, there are problems when it is operationalised. A better focus for practitioners would be to negotiate long-term adaptation pathways.

}, url = {https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/117237}, author = {Caroline Wenger} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5167, title = {Integrated response as a process for enhancing the incident command system}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, school = {University of Canterbury}, abstract = {

The devastating societal impacts of disruptive events have emphasised the need for more effective and unified emergency response arrangements. While policies that guide strategies, measures or approaches are not lacking in the emergency sector, they tend to be inadequate for response and relatively ineffective during response to large-scale or unprecedented events. This research critically examines theoretical bases and practice systems for emergency response, in order to identify useful community functions which can be integrated with emergency management response. The aim is to develop an integrated response framework that can be adopted to improve response to disruptive events.

The data for this research were gathered through case study analyses of communities in Christchurch, which provided context for and helped define the scope of community functions required for emergency response. Data were also collected in semi-structured interviews and focus group sessions with different community groups and organisations, emergency management professionals, and officials working in Christchurch City Council.

The analysis indicates that relevant functions exist within communities, and that four types of community functions can be used for improving emergency management response. Community functions identified were seen to possess relationships, interactions and qualities lacking in the emergency sector; characteristics that are essential for operational command and control response processes. The major research outcome is the development of a framework that integrates community functions with command and control structure as a contribution to improving response to disruptive events.

}, url = {https://ir.canterbury.ac.nz/handle/10092/13418}, author = {Dolapo Fakuade} } @article {bnh-4505, title = {Methods of Structural Analysis of Buildings Incorporating Higher Modes Effects}, journal = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society }, year = {2017}, pages = {10}, abstract = {

Dynamic analysis method has been suggested for the analysis of irregular buildings in the seismic standards. However, dynamic analyses can be computationally expensive and there are uncertainties associated with the selection of ground motion records for the regions of low to moderate seismicity. In a relevant research by the authors, it has been shown that linear response of irregular buildings featuring transfer beams resembles the response of regular buildings in the regions of low to moderate seismicity such as Australia. Hence, Generalised Lateral Force Method (GLFM) of Analysis is introduced and developed to incorporate the effects of higher modes based on generic modal displacement values. This method can be used for shear wall dominant RC buildings with or without transfer beam irregularity features. Shortcomings of the conventional Equivalent Static Analysis Method are resolved and the robustness of the method in estimating the seismic demands within the elastic limit is demonstrated by comparison with dynamic analyses.

}, keywords = {dynamic analysis method., higher mode effects, Multi-storey buildings, static analysis method}, url = {http://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/463-Alireza-Mehdipanah.pdf}, author = {Alireza Mehdipanah and Elisa Lumantarna and Nelson Lam} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5278, title = {Rhetoric or reality: coordination in a time of crisis}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, pages = {219}, school = {University of Sydney}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

In recent years Australia has experienced a number of significant natural disasters which have placed a clear focus on how governments at different levels respond to these events. Within this context there has been a clear emphasis on understanding the role of government in mitigating and responding to crises. Large scale natural disasters represent a significant test of the public sector{\textquoteright}s ability to respond in a coordinated and efficient way in the face of adversity. This comes against a backdrop in Australia where trust in government from its citizens continues to decline and where the public retain high expectations of government{\textquoteright}s ability to plan, prepare and respond to disasters. Crises are also occurring not in a vacuum but where changes in the public sector mean that whole of government or connected forms of working are a highly pervasive mantra. Crisis responses oblige the different layers of government: political, bureaucratic and operational response agencies to work together to confront these events and require collective action. There is a strong recognition that the response to disasters is beyond the capacity of any single person, agency or department. To date, there has been little work undertaken on how whole of government structures impact on the management and response to crises and how these may shape the overall perception of a {\textquoteleft}successful{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}failed{\textquoteright} response. As a result of this context, this thesis seeks to review and explore the responses to the 2009 Victorian bushfires and the 2011 Queensland floods by understanding how each state confronted these events and how they can be seen to epitomise the challenges of crisis management in Australia. Drawing on document analysis and elite interviews from each state, the thesis seeks to understand whether public commitments to whole of government in crises are rhetoric or reality? It will address this question through a lens which seeks to understand the impact of key themes such as: whole of government, crisis management, leadership, coordination, organisational culture, social capital and institutions in meditating the responses and outcomes of these events.

}, url = {https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/bitstream/2123/16311/2/2016_George_Carayannopoulos_Thesis.pdf}, author = {George Carayannopoulos} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4679, title = {Seismic assessment of reinforced concrete walls in Australia}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Some non-ductile reinforced concrete walls in buildings were observed to perform poorly in the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, with most of the lives lost from the event caused by the collapse of buildings that relied on these structural elements for lateral support. Reinforced concrete (RC) walls are widely used throughout the Australian building stock as the primary lateral support elements. It is possible that some of these structural elements would perform poorly in a very rare earthquake due to the low standard of detailing that is currently required in Australia, as well as the low earthquake return period that the Building Code of Australia stipulates for their design. The aim of this research has been to assess the seismic performance of reinforced concrete structural walls, both rectangular and C-shaped, in Australia, a region of low-to-moderate seismicity. The current Australian Standard for Earthquake Actions, AS 1170.4:2007, stipulates earthquake hazard values that are based on a seismic hazard map that is over two decades old. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was conducted for most of the capital cities in Australia using the AUS5 model to provide a more accurate prediction of seismic hazard in Australia. The results indicate that for some cities, such as Melbourne, the response spectrum is expected to be higher for large return periods in comparison to the design spectra derived using AS 1170.4:2007. Furthermore, a site response study was conducted using equivalent linear analyses to investigate the amplification of the soil response as classified in AS 1170.4:2007 using a range of ground motions that would be expected in Australia. The primary conclusions from the study showed that there can be a large dependency of the soil amplification on the intensity of the earthquake ground motions for the softer soil classes. Moreover, the low intensity ground motions resulted in a higher spectral shape factor for soil class Be and Ce in comparison to factors derived from the current AS 1170.4:2007. An investigation was undertaken to find the displacement capacity of rectangular lightly reinforced and unconfined walls using a finite element modelling (FEM) program, with emphasis on finding the equivalent plastic hinge length. A Secondary Cracking Model (SCM) was formulated, which is a simple, mathematical model that has the potential to predict if a RC wall has a sufficient longitudinal reinforcement ratio to enable {\textquotedblleft}secondary cracking{\textquotedblright} to occur. The SCM has been validated by comparison with results from the FEM analyses. Equivalent plastic hinge length equations were derived for the rectangular walls that were observed to form secondary cracking and a single, primary crack, and this can be used to predict the displacement capacity of these walls. This estimate of the displacement capacity assumes that the inelastic rotation that occurs over the inelastic region at the base of the wall can be modelled using an equivalent plastic hinge length over which the curvature is assumed to be a constant value. These estimates of the equivalent plastic hinge length are more appropriate for RC structural walls commonly found in Australia due to the parameters used in deriving them (e.g. mechanical properties of steel, longitudinal reinforcement ratio). Moreover, some expressions for the equivalent plastic hinge length that have derived by previous researchers were found to be inappropriate for the walls analysed in this research; these were particularly inaccurate for walls that do not have sufficient longitudinal reinforcement to force secondary cracks to form. The new expressions provide better estimates of the displacement capacity of lightly reinforced and unconfined walls when compared with recent experimental observations. One of the most widely used and popular cross-sections used in structural design of RC walls is the C-shaped section. There is a paucity of information available on the inelastic behaviour of such elements, and virtually no experimental data exists on non-rectangular concrete walls with inferior details commonly found in regions of low-to-moderate seismicity. An extensive number of nonlinear pushover analyses have been conducted based on FEM to investigate the seismic behaviour of C-shaped walls with detailing commonly found in Australia. Based on the FEM results, the SCM, that has been developed for rectangular walls, was found to be able to predict the potential of a single-crack forming in the walls. The direction of loading and mode of bending was found to be particularly important for the seismic performance of these walls. A non-ductile failure was observed for the majority of the walls investigated due to crushing of the unconfined concrete at the ends of the flanges in the governing direction of loading. Further analyses were conducted in the FEM program but with confined boundary ends to emphasise the importance of such structural detailing in allowing some plastic behaviour to be achieved for the governing direction of loading. The equivalent plastic hinge lengths derived from the extensive number of FEM analyses correlated poorly in comparison to the estimates from a number of expressions that exist in the literature, including a recently developed equation specifically for C-shaped walls. Therefore, equivalent plastic hinge lengths were derived from these results and for each direction of loading. A program has been written in MATLAB to derive vulnerability functions for low-rise, mid-rise and high-rise buildings in Australia that use structural walls as their lateral force-resisting system. The city of Melbourne was used as a template for conducting the analyses, and a dataset of thousands of buildings obtained from the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) and Census of Land Use and Employment (CLUE) databases was included in the assessment. The displacement capacity of each of the buildings was estimated using a moment-curvature analysis followed by a plastic hinge analysis. A range of artificial earthquakes from GENQKE and real earthquakes from the PEER ground motion database on {\textquotedblleft}weathered bedrock{\textquotedblright} conditions were obtained. These ground motions were subsequently used in equivalent linear analyses using the program SHAKE2000 to find the site response at the surface of different soil columns from shear wave velocity profiles taken predominantly from sites around Melbourne. The National Regolith Site Classification Map was used to estimate the soil conditions underlying each of the building sites. The acceleration and displacement response spectra resulting from these ground motions were used to represent the seismic demand for different site conditions in the capacity spectrum method and to ultimately estimate the vulnerability of the buildings. Thus, vulnerability functions were derived from the results.

}, keywords = {AS3600; buildings, earthquake, emergency management., Intraplate, low-to-moderate}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/11343/192443 }, author = {Ryan D. Hoult} } @article {bnh-4507, title = {Seismic fragility curves for limited ductile RC Buildings including the response of gravity frames}, journal = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {13}, abstract = {

The aim of this study is to assess the seismic performance of limited ductile reinforced concrete buildings in line with performance-based earthquake engineering principles. Limited ductile RC buildings are vulnerable to undesirable and sudden brittle failures which need to be considered in nonlinear models. The response of both the primary lateral load resisting system and the gravity load resisting system is considered. A brief description of the modelling approaches adopted to simulate the response of the core walls and frame components in a macro-finite element modelling space is provided. Using the adopted approach the seismic performance of two generic buildings with a symmetric plan is assessed. Nonlinear time-history analyses are conducted to obtain the building response to seismic ground motion. Probabilistic seismic demand model is developed using {\textquoteleft}Cloud{\textquoteright} analysis. Finally, fragility curves are developed considering four different performance limits to assess the seismic risk of the buildings.

}, keywords = {cloud analysis., fragility curves, Limited ductile reinforced concrete, moment resisting frames, seismic assessment}, url = {http://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/455-Anita-Amirsardari.pdf}, author = {Anita Amirsardari and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna and Pathmanathan Rajeev} } @article {bnh-4619, title = {Statistical characterisation of wind fields over complex terrain with applications in bushfire modelling}, journal = {Research Gate}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, abstract = {

The propagation of bushfire across the landscape is dependent on a variety of environmental factors, but the wind, in particular, has a major effect on both the speed and direction of fire propagation. As such, bushfire spread models, which underpin successful bushfire management, require accurate knowledge of the pattern of winds across the landscape. This can be problematic over complex terrain where winds exhibit considerable spatial variability due to wind-terrain interactions, and where detailed measurements of wind characteristics are comparatively rare. This thesis contributes two new wind datasets to address the previous lack of data available to develop and validate wind models over complex terrain. It also details analyses that focus on the statistical characterisation of wind as joint wind direction distributions, which represent the directional wind response to changing topography and surface roughness. A novel method for toroidal surface fitting is introduced and implemented to estimate the true continuous response from discrete observed data. This new method, which relies on a conceptually simple adaptation of planar techniques, is compared to the limited range of available toroidal surface estimation techniques and is shown to perform as well as, if not better than, these more sophisticated methods. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to highlight the sensitivity of statistical comparison tests to alternative distribution structures, and to validate bivariate and circular extensions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. These tests are applied to directional wind response pairs, showing that vegetation regrowth has a significant but varying impact across complex terrain. Finally, this thesis demonstrates how statistical approaches can be used to complement current physics-based wind modelling methods. The resulting probabilistic representations provide more accurate predictions of wind direction variability, and are better suited to emerging ensemble-based bushfire prediction frameworks. As such, they provide a superior characterisation of uncertainty across the fire modelling process; ultimately enabling fire managers to make more informed decisions.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, bushfire., Emergency management, Fire, propagation, wind modelling}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322212511_Statistical_characterisation_of_wind_fields_over_complex_terrain_with_applications_in_bushfire_modelling}, author = {Rachael Quill} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4426, title = {Statistical Characterisation Of Wind Fields Over Complex Terrain With Applications In Bushfire Modelling}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {274}, school = {University of New South Wales}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

The propagation of bushfire across the landscape is dependent on a variety of environmental factors, but the wind, in particular, has a major effect on both the speed and direction of fire propagation. As such, bushfire spread models, which underpin successful bushfire management, require accurate knowledge of the pattern of winds across the landscape. This can be problematic over complex terrain where winds exhibit considerable spatial variability due to wind-terrain interactions, and where detailed measurements of wind characteristics are comparatively rare.

This thesis contributes two new wind datasets to address the previous lack of data available to develop and validate wind models over complex terrain. It also details analyses that focus on the statistical characterisation of wind as joint wind direction distributions, which represent the directional wind response to changing topography and surface roughness. A novel method for toroidal surface fitting is introduced and implemented to estimate the true continuous response from discrete observed data. This new method, which relies on a conceptually simple adaptation of planar techniques, is compared to the limited range of available toroidal surface estimation techniques and is shown to perform as well as, if not better than, these more sophisticated methods.

Monte Carlo simulations are employed to highlight the sensitivity of statistical comparison tests to alternative distribution structures, and to validate bivariate and circular extensions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. These tests are applied to directional wind response pairs, showing that vegetation regrowth has a significant but varying impact across complex terrain.

Finally, this thesis demonstrates how statistical approaches can be used to complement current physics-based wind modelling methods. The resulting probabilistic representations provide more accurate predictions of wind direction variability, and are better suited to emerging ensemble-based bushfire prediction frameworks. As such, they provide a superior characterisation of uncertainty across the fire modelling process; ultimately enabling fire managers to make more informed decisions.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, bushfire management, propagation, spatial variability, toroidal surface, wind, wind-terrain}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Rachael_Quill/publication/322212511_Statistical_characterisation_of_wind_fields_over_complex_terrain_with_applications_in_bushfire_modelling/links/5a4c20cf458515a6bc6bf931/Statistical-characterisation-of-wind-fields-ov}, author = {Rachael Quill} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5325, title = {Synthetic damage curves for concrete girder bridge decks under flood hazard}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, pages = {242}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In recent years, frequencies of flood events in Australia have increased. It is noted that flood events cause the most damage to infrastructure compared to any other natural hazards in the world. Road bridges are lifeline structures with a pre and post disaster critical functionality. Failure or damage of bridges during an extreme flood event can have severe consequences to the community as well as road authorities and emergency services. Currently a major gap in knowledge is the ability to evaluate the vulnerability of bridge structures using a methodology which captures the variability of the event intensities and the variability of the structural capacity. The research presented here addresses this knowledge gap.

Research commenced with a comprehensive literature review covering review of major bridge design codes in the world, literature on flood loading, vulnerability modelling of bridges and numerical modelling approaches to simulate bridges under natural hazards. Damage indices proposed by researchers to depict the levels of damage to structures are also noted.

A comprehensive analysis of case studies of failure of bridges under flood loading under the 2011 and 2013 floods in Queensland and Victoria was undertaken to establish the major failure mode of bridges under flood loading. This identified that failure of girder and deck of concrete girder bridges, which constitute more than 60\% of the bridge network, is a common case study to investigate. Two bridges were selected for analysis and the outcome was used to establish the vulnerability modelling methodology.

A deterministic analysis of the selected structures was undertaken under variable flood loading to establish the analysis methodology using ABAQUS software. The loading configuration considered covered flood, log impact and debris impact. This analysis demonstrated that Kapernicks Bridge would fail at a flood velocity of 3.71m/s which closely agrees with the recorded flood velocity as well. Understanding the limitations of the deterministic analysis where the variability of flood loading and the variability of structural capacity cannot be accounted for, a probabilistic fragility analysis was undertaken to establish the probability of failure of the bridges.

Probability distribution was established for flood velocity as well as the structural section capacity. Fragility curves were derived for concrete girder bridges using the developed methodology.

The methodology developed is applicable for any bridge structure when the flood loading distribution for the location of the bridge can be established.

Contribution to the existing knowledge from this research has been the methodology developed to quantify vulnerability of road infrastructure exposed to flood hazard that would assist evaluate damage state for bridge structures. Emergency Management could use this damage state to assess evacuation routes while Road Authority could make decisions on strengthening the bridge structure.

A sensitivity analysis was undertaken to explore the effect of span of the bridge and also increase in flood frequency on the probability of failure.

A method to derive damage indices which can be used by bridge engineers for decision making has been demonstrated.

}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/eserv/rmit:162436/Kalendher.pdf}, author = {Farook Kalendher} } @article {bnh-4697, title = {The Unquantified Risk of Post-Fire Metal Concentration in Soil: a Review}, journal = {Water, Air, \& Soil Pollution}, volume = {228}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, abstract = {

Forest fire is a natural disturbance that occurs in many terrestrial ecosystems specifically in the semi-arid environments and is considered to be an important cause of environmental change. Though many causes of fire are identified, including lightning, volcanic eruption, power line sparks, etc., human involvement is the most significant factor. Fire events are able to alter the physical, chemical and biogeochemical properties of the soil and surface materials and are able to release major and trace metals into the environment. This may be more significant in mining-affected and industrial landscapes, where elevated concentrations of metals present in the soil. After the fire event, metals become more mobile due to the increase in soil surface exposure and the mobility associated with ash dispersal. This mobility may increase the bioavailability of the metals, which may generate water quality issues and may contribute to human and environmental health concerns. Even though, the influences of fire on many soil properties are well established, the behaviour of metals with respect to fire is not well investigated. However, a few studies report that major and trace metals include Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn and As are mobilized after fire with increased concentrations in soil and water resources and this might pose a risk to human health and ecosystems. Climate change may increase the intensity, frequency and areal extend of fire events and hence increase the metal concentrations and their potential health impacts. This paper reviews post-fire (wild fire) mobility of metals in soil common in contaminated forest ecosystems. The human and ecological health risks of these metals are also considered.

}, keywords = {Climate change, environment, fire., forest, soil}, doi = {10.1007}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11270-017-3338-0$\#$citeas}, author = {Joji Abraham and Kim Dowling and Singarayer Florentine} } @article {bnh-4570, title = {Valuing recovery through risk ownership}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {33}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {
As the risks encountered by natural hazards change and become more dynamic, so too, does the task of recovering from them. To manage natural hazards, planners must plan for the unexpected; building resilience before, during and after events. Currently, recovery funding is limited to a two-year window. Devastated communities that do not recover during this time rely on ad hoc funding to support patchy recovery beyond this. Planning for long-term recovery needs to be embedded throughout the risk assessment process to be effective. This presents a number of challenges. By identifying the longer-term risks and their consequences in advance, sustained recovery can be planned for all social, environmental and economic values (assets). This will determine what recovery interventions may be needed and when they are likely be most effective.

}, keywords = {lessons management., mitigation, Natural hazards, prevention, risk ownership, risks}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-valuing-recovery-through-risk-ownership/}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5280, title = {We have not lived long enough: sensemaking and learning from bushfires in Australia}, year = {2017}, month = {06/2017}, school = {The University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Why did the bushfires of 7 February 2009 in Victoria take so many lives? Why were those bushfires so extreme, so feral, so catastrophic, so devastating? What can be done to ensure that so many lives are not lost, that so much devastation is not caused, in such bushfires in the future? (Parliament of Victoria, Opening Remarks, Chair of the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, 2009: 1) Victoria, Australia, is arguably the most fire-prone area in the world. Increasingly, with climate change, atmospheric scientists claim that we are experiencing longer drought periods, higher wind speeds and warmer temperatures which are giving rise to a greater bushfire threat in an already extremely bushfire-prone environment. Given such circumstances, it is likely that Victoria{\textquoteright}s emergency management organisations will increasingly find themselves responding to bushfires characterised as complex, harmful and rare. Therefore, my study seeks to understand how emergency management organisations make sense of and learn from bushfires in Victoria so that they can be better prepared for bushfires in the future. To do so, I focus on the Royal Commission, which followed the {\textquotedblleft}Black Saturday{\textquotedblright} bushfires, commonly referred to as Australia{\textquoteright}s worst ever natural disaster. My study comprises a qualitative and interpretive methodology to explore how emergency management organisations implement recommendations emanating from public inquiries, and the role that sensemaking plays in this. In addition, given the devastating impact that disasters such as bushfires can have, I also explore how emotions influence the sensemaking process associated with implementing recommendations in such organisations. Through this dual-focused approach I build new theory in relation to the ways in which individuals in organisations make sense of and learn from public inquiry recommendations after disasters, while highlighting the role of both negative and positive emotions in this process.

}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/158069}, author = {Graham Dwyer} } @article {bnh-4669, title = {Analytical Simulation of Limited Ductile RC Beam-Columns}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, abstract = {

A systematic analytical modelling technique for the simulation of limited-ductile beamcolumn elements based on the concentrated plasticity model is proposed in this paper. The modelling technique employs a backbone curve for the monotonic behaviour of the limited ductile beam-column elements based on empirical equations. The hysteretic behaviour of the beam-columns in the cyclic loading is modelled and calibrated to results from experiments on columns obtained from the literature using OpenSEES software. The modelling technique provides an important tool for the seismic performance assessment of existing buildings which have been designed with considerations of low to no ductile detailing.

}, keywords = {Bond-Slip, Concentrated Plasticity Modelling Technique, Failure Mechanisms, Lightly Reinforced Columns, OpenSEES.}, url = {https://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/331-Alireza-Mehdipanah-et-al.pdf}, author = {Alireza Mehdipanah and Nelson Lam and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-4668, title = {Displacement Based Design of Bridge Abutments}, journal = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, abstract = {

The present study deals with the drift and displacement capacities of reinforced concrete (RC) bridge abutments subjected to seismic excitations. Two dimensional (2D) finite element (FE) analyses have been conducted to investigate the behavior of the bridge abutment taking into account dynamic actions of the backfill in seismic conditions. The capability of scaled down bridge abutment models is also investigated in order to replicate the dynamic behavior of prototype bridge abutments. The analyses have taken into account interactions between the abutment and the backfill, which can significantly affect the seismically induced displacement behavior of the bridge abutments. It was observed that scaled down bridge abutment models could effectively replicate the seismic behavior of prototype bridge abutments. The stiffness of the bridge abutment degrades significantly with increasing intensity of ground motion. The location of the point of rotation of the bridge abutment is almost constant irrespective of the height of the stem wall. Drift and displacement behavior of the bridge abutment is highly controlled by the thickness of the stem wall.

}, keywords = {abutment, Bridge, design, performance, seismic, similitude.}, url = {https://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/337-Tiwari-et-al.pdf}, author = {Rohit Tiwari and Nelson Lam and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-4667, title = {Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Asymmetrical Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Australia}, journal = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society }, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, abstract = {

Many reinforced concrete buildings in Australia are laterally supported by reinforced concrete cores/shear walls that are eccentrically located in the buildings. The structural elements at the edges of the asymmetrical buildings can be subjected to a significant displacement demand, making this type of buildings highly vulnerable in an earthquake. Seismic assessment methods for asymmetrical buildings commonly involve three-dimensional dynamic analyses that can be computationally expensive. This paper presents a simplified analysis method for multi-storey buildings featuring plan asymmetry. The method has been used to assess the seismic vulnerability of asymmetrical reinforced concrete buildings in Australia.

}, keywords = {Aymmetrical buildings, fragility curves, reinforced concrete., simplified analysis method}, url = {https://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/379-Lumantarna-et-al.pdf}, author = {Elisa Lumantarna and Alireza Mehdipanah and Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang and John Wilson and Emad F Gad and Helen M. Goldsworthy} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4632, title = {Fighting fires and fatigue: sleep, physical activity, and physical task performance}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2015}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Wildfires are any uncontrolled, non-structural burning in grass, scrub, bush, or forests. Wildfires can have a debilitating impact on communities in North America, South America, Southern Europe, and Australia, with the loss of property, livestock, and human life. The financial burden of wildfire is immense. For example, the average annual cost of wildfire in Australia is $77 million (AUD). Globally, the frequency, duration, and severity of wildfires is predicted to escalate, due, at least in part, to climate change resulting in hotter and drier summers. The increase in wildfire activity will result in more frequent and/or longer deployments which may exacerbate the cognitive and physical demands placed on wildland firefighting personnel.

}, keywords = {bushfires, emergency management., fatigue, firefighters, fires, Sleep}, url = {http://dro.deakin.edu.au/eserv/DU:30079447/vincent-fightingfires-2015A.pdf}, author = {Grace Vincent} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4630, title = {Simulated Self-Paced Wildfire Suppression Work in Different Thermal Conditions}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, pages = {236}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There is a substantial body of research investigating the influence of ambient temperature on sport and exercise performance. However, research investigating the effect of heat on the performance of manual-handling work, as performed by personnel across many physically demanding occupations, is relatively scarce. Wildland firefighters are commonly tasked with performing manual-handling work under conditions of high ambient heat, and will likely do so more frequently under a continually warming climate. Heat-related illness also currently represents a substantial threat to the safety and wellbeing of wildland firefighters when on duty. Understanding the role of ambient heat in moderating firefighter performance may be important for wildland fire agencies in forecasting the effectiveness of their workforce. Further, quantifying the physiological response of firefighters working in such conditions may assist in preventing heat-related incidents on the fireground. Therefore, assessing the influence of hot ambient conditions on the work output of wildland firefighters, as well as the magnitude of their thermoregulatory and cardiovascular response, was the primary focus of this thesis. Due to the inherent variability of wildfire behaviour, and the subsequent difficulty in measuring work performance in an operational setting, the current program of research utilised high-fidelity work simulations to assess changes in work output in response to ambient heat. Study 1 investigated the self-selected work output of wildland firefighters in both temperate (18{\textdegree}C) and hot (32{\textdegree}C) ambient conditions over a six-hour simulated shift, and indices of thermal stress (e.g., core temperature) and exertion (e.g., heart rate) were measured. Study 2 reported the cumulative effect of ambient heat on the work performance and physiological response of wildland firefighters performing three consecutive days of simulated wildfire suppression. Finally, Study 3 measured the self-selected work output and thermoregulatory responses of wildland firefighters performing a raking task in both 45{\textdegree}C and 18{\textdegree}C conditions. The adaptive behaviours of firefighters (e.g., in ad-libitum fluid intake) were also documented during all studies. Collectively, the results from these studies provides novel insight into the operational effectiveness of wildland firefighters under a range of ambient conditions, and their concurrent physiological and behavioural responses.\ 

}, keywords = {Decision making, emergency management., exposure, firefighter, fires, temperature}, url = {http://dro.deakin.edu.au/eserv/DU:30082763/larsen-simulatedself-2015A.pdf}, author = {Larsen, Brianna} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4631, title = {Sleep restriction across a simulated firefighting deployment: The impact on acute stress responses}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, pages = {317}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Exposure to stressors set in motion inflammatory, cortisol, heart rate and mood responses that allow the body to maintain normal healthy function. Severe or chronic stressors however, may adversely alter the action of these stress responses and lead to adverse health outcomes. Periods of sleep restriction and performing physical work are two stressors routinely faced by wildland firefighters, yet the combined impact that these demands have on firefighters{\textquoteright} acute stress responses is poorly understood. Therefore, the objective of this thesis was to investigate the effect of physical firefighting work and sleep restriction on firefighters{\textquoteright} cytokine, cortisol and heart rate responses, their interactions, and how mood may influence any observed physiological changes.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, firefighters, physiological., Sleep, sleep deprivation}, url = {http://dro.deakin.edu.au/eserv/DU:30083644/wolkow-sleeprestriction-2015A.pdf}, author = {Alexander Wolkow} }