@article {bnh-8378, title = {Business involvement in disaster management}, number = {15.2023}, year = {2023}, month = {04/2023}, institution = {Natural Hazards Research Australia}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Severe to catastrophic disasters pose the potential to overwhelm traditional emergency management approaches, necessitating the adoption of a whole-of-community approach.

A key component of the whole-of-community approach is building collaborative partnerships between communities, government agencies, community organisations and businesses across the phases of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery to engage their full capacity.

To date, there has been little research examining the role of the business sector in disaster management although many businesses, large and small, provide assistance. This research focuses specifically on the role and involvement of businesses in disaster management.

Pertinent findings of the research were:

}, issn = {15.2023}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Steve George} } @article {bnh-8379, title = {Fire coalescence and mass spot fire dynamics - final project report}, number = {736}, year = {2023}, month = {04/2023}, institution = {Natural Hazards Research Australia}, abstract = {

The Fire coalescence and mass spot fire dynamics project (the Spotfire Project) was one of the core research projects within the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC{\textquoteright}s Bushfire Predictive Services research cluster. Specifically, the Spotfire Project was focused on enhancing our understanding of the physical processes involved in spot fire development and coalescence and developing computationally efficient mathematical models that can accurately account for these the patterns of bushfire propagation associated with mass spotting and other modes of dynamic fire behaviour. Current operational models and associated simulation platforms are predicated on the assumptions that fires spread in a quasi-steady manner and that different parts of a fire line evolve independently of other parts {\textendash} both of these assumptions are manifestly untrue during mass spotting events.

The research took a multifaceted approach, which drew upon experimentation, computer simulation and mathematical modelling to develop a new dynamic modelling framework that permits faster-than-real-time simulation of fire propagation incorporating dynamic drivers. Experimentation took place at both laboratory and field scales. Laboratory experimentation was conducted in the CSIRO Pyrotron and in collaboration with Portuguese colleagues at the Centre for the Study of Forest Fires. Field scale experiments were also conducted in Portugal. The experiments provided insights into the dynamic nature of fire behaviour and provided data for calibration and validation of the models under development.

Coupled fire-atmosphere models were used to perform idealized simulations of various scenarios involving dynamic fire propagation. The model output provided detailed quantitative insights into the physical processes driving dynamic fire propagation and were used to inform development of new mathematical models. The mathematical model developed during the project is essentially a two-dimensional version of a coupled fire-atmosphere model {\textendash} it incorporates the feedback between the fire and the atmosphere but within the two-dimensional Spark fire simulation platform.

The research has yielded many important and significant insights into the behaviour of coalescing spot fires, and these insights have enhanced our understanding of the processes driving fire propagation and the way we model dynamic fire behaviours. These have in turn provided new understanding of violent pyroconvective events and extreme bushfire development.

The most significant research outcome was the development of the pyrogenic potential model, which permits world{\textquoteright}s first capability to model dynamic modes of fire propagation (e.g., vorticity-driven lateral spread) using a two-dimensional simulation framework. This means that explicitly modelling such effects in operational timeframes is now a feasible option. The research has also examined various other issues related to the spotting process and dynamic fire propagation more generally. These include: the effects of wind-terrain interaction on ember trajectories and the likely distribution of spot fires downwind of complex terrain, the influence of spot fires on the overall rate of spread of a fire, the influence of terminal velocity assumptions on ember trajectory modelling, the influence of fuel characteristics (e.g., bulk density) on spot fire development and pyroconvective feedback, the role of fine scale vorticity effects on dynamic fire behaviour, and development of simple measures of pyroconvective potential.

There is considerable utilisation potential for the research findings. The advances in fire behaviour modelling are easily incorporated within the Spark simulator platform. Given that Spark has been formally chosen by AFAC to be the new national bushfire prediction platform, the project{\textquoteright}s research findings will eventually be available to all involved in operational prediction of bushfire propagation. Moreover, the insights into dynamic fire behaviours provided by the project will form the basis for new firefighter training and education materials that will equip operational personnel with better knowledge of the full spectrum of possible fire behaviours in given scenarios. This will improve situational awareness, with benefits for firefighter safety.

The project has also developed a new mapping product that identifies regions prone to mass spotting in association with vorticity-driven lateral spread. This will be available to fire management agencies and other relevant organisations, to assist with fire behaviour prediction, with special relevance to anticipating blow-up fire events and extreme bushfire development.

Overall, the Spotfire Project has presented a new paradigm for understanding fire behaviour and has made the first significant advances towards the next generation of operational models. The insights gained from the research complements and extends existing fire behaviour knowledge in a way that enhances our ability to deal with the increasing bushfire threat into the future.

}, issn = {736}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew and Badlan, R} } @article {bnh-8372, title = {Physics-based simulations of grassfire propagation on sloped terrain at field scale: flame dynamics, mode of fire propagation and heat fluxes}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2023}, month = {01/2023}, abstract = {

The interaction of wind and fire on a sloped terrain is always complex owing to the mechanisms of heat transfer and flame dynamics. Heating of unburned vegetation by attached flames may increase the rate of spread. The relative intensities of convective and radiative heat fluxes may change fire behaviour significantly. This paper presents a detailed analysis of flame dynamics, mode of fire propagation and surface radiative and convective heat fluxes on sloped terrain at various wind speeds using physics-based simulations. It was found that with increasing slope angles and wind velocity, the plume inclines more towards the ground and becomes elongated in upslope cases, whereas in downslope cases, the plume rises from the ground earlier. For higher wind velocities, the flame and near-surface flame dynamics appear to show rising, even though the plume is attached. The flame contour results indicate that the near-surface flame dynamics are difficult to characterise using Byram{\textquoteright}s number. A power-law correlation was observed between the simulated flame lengths and fireline intensities. The convective heat fluxes are more relevant for wind-driven fire propagation and greater upslopes, whereas both fluxes are equally significant for lower driving wind velocities compared with higher wind velocities.

}, keywords = {Byram number, fire propagation, flame, grassfire, heat fluxes, plume, rate of spread (RoS), slope, wind velocity}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF21125}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF21125$\#$FN1}, author = {Jasmine Innocent and Duncan Sutherland and Nazmul Khan and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8370, title = {Vehicle-related causes of flood fatalities}, journal = {Natural Hazard Science}, year = {2023}, month = {02/2023}, abstract = {

Vehicle-related flood incidents represent a leading cause of flood fatalities, as well as resulting in an additional health system and emergency services burden. A large proportion of these deaths are preventable and represent an area of collaboration across a range of fields, including emergency services, disaster preparedness, floodplain management, public health, and road safety. The nature of the risk is exacerbated by increases in the frequency and severity of flood events in a warming climate and further urbanization.

The nature of vehicle-related flood incidents is multidimensional, consisting of flood hazard, behavioral, vehicle, and road-related factors. Equally, strategies required to reduce the incidence of vehicles entering floodwater must be multidimensional, giving consideration to behavioral, regulatory, structural, and emergency response measures. Such an approach requires the involvement of a diverse range of stakeholders.

}, keywords = {behavior, climate, Drowning, Flood, prevention, regulation, social cognition}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.438}, url = {https://oxfordre.com/naturalhazardscience/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.001.0001/acrefore-9780199389407-e-438?rskey=eQeJXc}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Kyra Hamilton and Grantley Smith and Amy Peden} } @article {bnh-8342, title = {Active fire detection using the Himawari-8 satellite - final project report}, number = {728}, year = {2022}, month = {05/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Satellite sensors are an important source of observations of fire activity (or hotspots). Next generation geostationary satellites (Himawari-8, GeoKompsat 2A, GOES-16/17) provide earth observations very frequently (~every 10-minutes).\  This near-real time data provides opportunities for new and improved fire detection algorithms. Early fire detection algorithms that take advantage of such high frequency observations, and that are primed for Australian landscapes, are developed under this project.\ \ 

The performance of new fire detection data\  forms part of the development phase.\  How well do they perform? What are their limitations? What are their advantages for observing fire under different fire scenarios and in different landscapes?\  One aspect of evaluation is how does the algorithm, and implementation of the algorithm as a processing chain, perform under operational circumstances.\  To this end, an end-user trial was hosted by NSW RFS for the near-real time implementation of the new Himawari-8 hotspot algorithm (March 2019-March 2021) and expanded to include Victoria over the 2019-2020 (black summer) bushfire season.\ \ 

Results from the project developed algorithms compare extremely favourably with existing polar-orbiting fire detections and other Himawari-based approaches. This has led to wide interest and project outputs being adopted by end-users.

}, issn = {728}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Chermelle Engel} } @article {bnh-8329, title = {Analysis and characterisation of bushfire-meets-prescribed burn events from the 2019-20 fire season - Black Summer final report}, number = {683}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The objective of this project was stated in the Research Services Agreement as: {\textquotedblleft}to develop a novel dataset that will capture information about individual bushfire-meets-prescribed burn events. The initial focus will be on those interactions that occurred during the 2019/20 fire season.{\textquotedblright} In other words, the project was to design a database that will allow evaluation of prescribed burns from planning stages to ultimate outcomes, and start using the data for some cases. In this report, we begin by outlining this dataset and its sources of information, though we have not populated it. Instead, we list potential evaluations that could be done with and conduct two evaluations with components of the data.

The core of the proposed fire-meets-fire dataset is matched reporting from the Burn Plan (before) and Burn Report (on completion), especially area, fuel, moisture and weather variables. Some of this is not routinely reported in the current Elements System (for example 21\% of burns had no actual area burnt recorded and most burns were missing fuel information). The dataset should also ingest information from fire severity mapping (which is now routine) and smoke impact. If the burn meets a bushfire a new range of information is available and should be ingested, including the severity of the bushfire within the burn. The advantage that the burn gave to firefighters is hard to gauge simply from fire severity, so additional information is needed, most importantly from firefighter interviews, but also by more detailed GIS examination of bushfire behavior.

There are many evaluations that could be done with this dataset, from simple metrics such as percent of planned area actually burnt, to refinement of weather prescriptions for burns to whole-of-program evaluations applied to all burns such as the severity analysis presented here.

Sections 3 and 4 are examples of whole of program evaluations. Section 4 is an analysis of severity reduction in the 2019/20 bushfires relating the occurrence of high severity fire in ~100,000 points to the fire history at those points, and controlling for vegetation, weather and topography. This found that in dry sclerophyll, recent burning (up to ~five years) reduced the probability of high severity fire and even more so if that previous burn was at low severity.

Section 4 uses visual interpretation of the 2019/20 bushfire severity and progression mapping to attribute each previous prescribed burn with its effect on the bushfire. This ranged from stopping the bushfire altogether (having a common boundary) to simple severity reduction (was the bushfire severity reduced in the burn?). We found that 30\% of burns from 2014 were encountered by the bushfires. Of these 509 burns, 13\% of them were aligned with the final fire boundary, 42\% of recent burns (one or two years old) caused some unburnt patches within the burn, and 68\% caused a severity reduction. Burns older than this had much less effect, and we found two cases where a burn left an unburnt shadow behind it (meaning shadows are very rare events). We were able to cross-reference our interpretation for 14 burns to interviews from another pilot project. This revealed broad agreement, but also highlighted several cases where a burn gave firefighters an advantage that could not be found in the GIS. Three of these were cases where the bushfire slowed down (sometimes for several days), allowing firefighters time to prepare. There were two cases where burns outside of the burn perimeter effectively reduced spotting activity.

The project demonstrates what can be done to evaluate prescribed burning programs and that a wide range of data is required to do this thoroughly. The 2019/20 bushfire season was extraordinary in many ways. Our analysis suggests that one of these ways was that prescribed burns only reduced fire behavior if they were one or two years old. Analyses of previous seasons generally find a longer lasting effect. Even so, there were many instances where prescribed burns helped firefighters, including in ways that are not obvious in GIS analyses.

}, keywords = {2019-20, analysis, black summer, Bushfire, characterisation, prescribed burn}, issn = {683}, author = {Owen Price and James Barker and Simin Rahmani and Wilkinson, Carrie and Donald MacDonald} } @article {bnh-8376, title = {Determining firebrand generation rate using physics-based modelling from experimental studies through inverse analysis}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {5}, year = {2022}, month = {01/2022}, abstract = {

Firebrand spotting is a potential threat to people and infrastructure, which is difficult to predict and becomes more significant when the size of a fire and intensity increases. To conduct realistic physics-based modeling with firebrand transport, the firebrand generation data such as numbers, size, and shape of the firebrands are needed. Broadly, the firebrand generation depends on atmospheric conditions, wind velocity and vegetation species. However, there is no experimental study that has considered all these factors although they are available separately in some experimental studies. Moreover, the experimental studies have firebrand collection data, not generation data. In this study, we have conducted a series of physics-based simulations on a trial-and-error basis to reproduce the experimental collection data, which is called an inverse analysis. Once the generation data was determined from the simulation, we applied the interpolation technique to calibrate the effects of wind velocity, relative humidity, and vegetation species. First, we simulated Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) tree-burning and quantified firebrand generation against the tree burning experiment conducted at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Then, we applied the same technique to a prescribed forest fire experiment conducted in the Pinelands National Reserve (PNR) of New Jersey, the USA. The simulations were conducted with the experimental data of fuel load, humidity, temperature, and wind velocity to ensure that the field conditions are replicated in the experiments. The firebrand generation rate was found to be 3.22 pcs/MW/s (pcs-number of firebrands pieces) from the single tree burning and 4.18 pcs/MW/s in the forest fire model. This finding was complemented with the effects of wind, vegetation type, and fuel moisture content to quantify the firebrand generation rate.

}, keywords = {FDS, Firebrands, physics-based modeling, wildland fire, Wildland-urban interface}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire5010006}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/1/6}, author = {Amila Wickramasinghe and Nazmul Khan and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8361, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour - final project report}, year = {2022}, month = {09/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the last decade, there have been extreme wildfire events around the world resulting in substantial social, economic and environmental impacts. They threaten many lives and cost billions of dollars in damage. Climate change is making the fire seasons around the world even worse by extending the number of dry and hot days [1-4]. A longer fire season is expected to result in more frequent and severe fires [5, 6]. Australia{\textquoteright}s bushfire season 2019/20 (Black Summer fires hereafter) appears to have supported these conclusions in terms of the ecological consequences and impacts on human populations [7].

In most cases, these consequences are the result of dynamic fire behaviours (DFBs) [8-11]. The DFBs are localised dynamic events that occur within fires, whereby physical feedbacks greatly enhance fire intensities and rates of spread. Understanding and having the ability to predict DFBs in wildfire events is essential to ensure the safety of communities living in or near the Wildland-Urban Interface.

In this regard, the project {\textquoteleft}Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour{\textquoteright} was focused on the understanding and analysis of dynamic fire effects; their influence on fire behaviour and structures; and the potential of including these effects in fire behaviour models and new building standards.

}, issn = {735}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-8351, title = {Emergency Services Workforce 2030}, number = {669}, year = {2022}, month = {07/2022}, pages = {66}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency management sector sits within an environment that is becoming ever more complex, dynamic and uncertain. This is due to factors like a growing population, changing climate, social and cultural change, and the impact of new technologies. At the same time, the nature of how we work, in both paid and voluntary ways, is also changing. Work is greatly influenced by changes in technology and lifestyle, and by increasing levels of interconnectivity and cross-boundary collaboration.

In this dynamic context, planning for the sustainability, effectiveness and wellbeing of the future emergency management workforce takes on considerable importance.

The workforces of Australia{\textquoteright}s fire, emergency services and rural land management agencies (referred to in this report as emergency service organisations) are crucial to Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency management capability. These workforces include career and volunteer members, they also include first responders as well as professional, technical, and administrative support staff and volunteers (hereafter referred to collectively as the emergency service workforce).

This report provides a consolidated, overview picture of emerging workforce challenges and opportunities likely to face emergency service organisations over the coming decade. It is a first step in bringing together the wide range of research that can inform and strengthen strategic workforce planning in these organisations.

The report presents a high-level summary of key trends and developments highlighted in research from beyond the emergency management sphere. It identifies potential implications of these trends and developments for the future emergency service workforce. It also highlights key Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) affiliated research that can assist workforce planners to understand and respond to these implications.

The bulk of the combined emergency service workforce are volunteers. According to the Productivity Commission, there were around 212,293 fire service volunteers and 23,897 state and territory emergency service volunteers across emergency service organisations in Australia in 2017-18 (Commonwealth of Australia, 2019). Volunteers therefore formed around 91\% of the fire service workforce, and 97\% of the state and territory emergency service workforce in that year. Furthermore, given the geographic size, changing risk profile, and demographic shifts in Australia, a heavy reliance on volunteers is likely to continue into the future. As such, volunteers and volunteering issues form a key component of the terrain covered in this report.

While focusing on the emergency service workforce, this report is also based on recognition that the emergency services are part of a wider emergency management workforce that is also diverse and changing. The complete emergency management workforce extends far beyond the emergency services to include the volunteer and paid workforces of not-for-profits active in recovery, local governments, wider community sector and faith-based organisations, government departments, private businesses and more. Increasingly, under the influence of changing community expectations, and policy goals of community resilience, shared responsibility, and clear risk ownership (COAG, 2011; Commonwealth of Australia, 2018), {\textquoteleft}unaffiliated{\textquoteright} community members and groups are also recognised as a valuable part of the emergency management workforce (AIDR, 2017).

Consequently, the future emergency management workforce is not going to be restricted to the affiliated volunteer and paid workforces of formal emergency service organisations. Therefore, this report considers the future emergency service workforce within the context of how it interacts with and forms a part of the wider emergency management workforce.

}, issn = {669}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Jane Chong and Patrick Dunlop} } @article {bnh-8352, title = {Emergency Services Workforce 2030: Changing landscape literature review}, number = {732}, year = {2022}, month = {07/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Changing Landscape Literature Review collates a high-level evidence base around seven major themes in the changing landscape (i.e., the external environment) that fire, emergency service, and rural land management agencies operate in, and which will shape workforce planning and capability requirements over the next decade. It is an output of the Workforce 2030 project and is one of two literature reviews that summarise the research base underpinning a high-level integrative report of emerging workforce challenges and opportunities, Emergency Services Workforce 2030.

Workforce 2030 aimed to highlight major trends and developments likely to impact the future workforces of emergency service organisations, and their potential implications. The starting point for the project was a question:

What can research from outside the sphere of emergency management add to our knowledge of wider trends and developments likely to shape the future emergency services workforce, and their implications?

The seven themes included in the Changing Landscape Literature Review are: 1) demographic changes, 2) changing nature of work, 3) changes in volunteering, 4) physical technology, 5) digital technology, 6) shifting expectations, and changing risk. A second, accompanying literature review, the Changing Work Literature Review, focuses on another nine themes related to emergency service organisation{\textquoteright}s internal workforce management approaches and working environments.

}, issn = {732}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Jane Chong and Patrick Dunlop} } @article {bnh-8353, title = {Emergency Services Workforce 2030: Changing work literature review}, number = {733}, year = {2022}, month = {07/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Changing Work Literature Review collates a high-level evidence base around nine major themes related to internal workforce management approaches and working environments of fire, emergency service, and rural land management agencies. It is an output of the Workforce 2030 project and is one of two literature reviews that summarise the research base underpinning a high-level integrative report of emerging workforce challenges and opportunities, Emergency Services Workforce 2030.

Workforce 2030 aimed to highlight major trends and developments likely to impact the future workforces of emergency service organisations, and their potential implications. The starting point for the project was a question:

What can research from outside the sphere of emergency management add to our knowledge of wider trends and developments likely to shape the future emergency services workforce, and their implications?

The Changing Work Literature Review focuses on nine themes relevant to changes that have implications for emergency service organisation{\textquoteright}s internal workforce management approaches and working environments: 1) Recruitment, assessment, and selection, 2) Socialisation and training, 3) Work design, 4) Diversity and inclusion, 5) Managing mental health and wellbeing, 6) Leadership, 7) Change management, 8) Managing an ageing workforce, and 9) Managing volunteer workforces.

}, issn = {733}, author = {Jane Chong and Blythe McLennan and Patrick Dunlop} } @article {bnh-8344, title = {Emergency volunteering 2030: Views from emergency response volunteer representatives}, number = {731}, year = {2022}, month = {05/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report presents results from a qualitative survey completed by 72 representatives of emergency response volunteer groups and networks in Australia in 2018 and 2019. The purpose of the survey was to explore volunteer representatives{\textquoteright} views about changes in volunteering that have occurred in the past, key volunteering issues today, what a preferred future for emergency response volunteering looks like, and what needs to happen to move towards that future.

The survey was administered by RMIT University researchers as part of a research study for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC called Emergency volunteering 2030: Adapting the sector. {\textquoteleft}Adapting the sector{\textquoteright} is a foresight and scenario-planning study engaging with a wide range of stakeholders to identify the most important trends and uncertainties likely to shape the future of emergency volunteering, and to consider implications of alternative future volunteering scenarios for today{\textquoteright}s decision-making.

This report is one of a series of Environmental Scan reports that capture diverse stakeholder views of the current and emerging landscape of emergency volunteering. The research was approved and overseen by the RMIT University Human Ethics Advisory Network (project number CHEAN B 21057-08/17).

Context

Formal emergency response volunteering is a crucial and central component of the volunteering that supports communities before, during and after emergency events. The 250,000 odd emergency response volunteers form the bulk of the emergency response workforce in Australia. Emergency response volunteering is especially important in rural, regional and remote communities where volunteers provide many essential community services and where emergency response services are heavily, often entirely, volunteer based.

Ensuring the long-term sustainability of Australia{\textquoteright}s formal emergency response volunteer capacity is a key issue within the emergency management sector in the face of the changes and pressures in the modern landscape of volunteering. Many emergency management organisations are responding to the changing landscape with new volunteer strategies, models, and management practices but more needs to be done. This report endeavours to reinforce volunteer voices within current research, debates, and decisions regarding strategies for the future of emergency volunteering.

Key implications of this research

The implications provided here are first level observations prepared by the author. They are based on views that were gathered before the 2019/2020 Australian bushfire season began and before the COVID-19 pandemic. More complete implications will also be considered in conversation with key stakeholder groups.

  1. Volunteer representatives depict a situation today in which emergency response volunteering is being squeezed by pressures on three sides (socioeconomic and demographic shifts, government and organisation expectations and requirements, and community needs and expectations), such that the personal burden of volunteering is increasing.
  2. A partial mismatch may be developing between organisational expectations on emergency response volunteers, and the motivations and incentives underpinning this volunteering, which increases the risk of a significant {\textquoteleft}breach of psychological contract{\textquoteright} occurring.
  3. Related to this, responses from some volunteer representatives indicate a widening gap between the goals, values and priorities of some organisations and their volunteers exacerbated by professionalisation and corporatisation. While not a dominant theme in this report, the potential for this gap to continue to grow is concerning.
  4. Particularly younger and female volunteer representatives considered there to be a shortage of innovation and flexibility to address complex and multi-faceted challenges in their organisations, including amongst volunteers themselves. Many identified a need for cultural change to become more open and inclusive.
  5. Most volunteer representatives do not expect that current policy and management approaches will effectively enable vibrant and sustainable emergency response volunteering over the next decade, and they are concerned about the implications of this for communities.
  6. Positively, volunteer representative responses revealed five key foundations for vibrant volunteering over the next decade. They also suggested a wide range of priority actions that could strengthen these foundations. Half also identified initiatives that are doing well addressing current issues.
  7. With longer and fiercer bushfire seasons ahead, the issue of alleviating the personal financial burden of emergency response volunteering into the future needs to be carefully examined. A considerable minority of volunteer representatives anticipated that further remuneration or compensation of some kind could be needed in future.
  8. Volunteer representatives emphasized the importance of stronger governmental leadership and support to move towards a preferred future for emergency response volunteering.

Research approach

This research primarily used a qualitative, key informant survey with 72 representatives from emergency response volunteer groups across Australia. The survey was administered online in late 2018 and early 2019.

All participants represented volunteers from one of three general service categories: 35\% represented Victorian Country Fire Authority volunteers (CFA volunteers), 31\% represented fire service volunteers in other states and territories (including combined services), and 35\% represented volunteers in other emergency response services, (including state emergency services or SES, ambulance, surf life saving, and marine rescue).

}, issn = {731}, author = {Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-8337, title = {Estimating fuel moisture and fire history from Sentinel 2 satellite imagery - Black Summer final report}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), the Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions (DBCA), the Australian National University (ANU) and Murdoch University have a project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Quantifying seasonal variation in live fuel moisture content, fuel dynamics and the effects of the mosaic of prescribed burning on fire behaviour in near-urban coastal vegetation mosaic{\textquotedblright}

Fuel moisture is a key factor affecting the flammability, fire behaviour,\ damage potential and suppression difficulty of bushfires, and it is an input to fire danger rating and fie behaviour prediction systems.

While there are well-developed models that predict the moisture\ content of dead fuels such as cured grass and forest litter, no models or methods exist for predicting or effectively measuring the\ moisture content of predominately live fuels, such as the shrublands\ of SW-WA.

Within this larger project, Landgate, with the above partners have been working on a sub-project to provide DFES and DBCA with Sentinel 2 satellite imagery derived datasets, aiming to provide an improved capability to understand changes in fuel moisture within the coastal shrubland region, along with a detailed fire history\ spanning\  2016 to June 2021.

}, issn = {727}, author = {Allen, Adrian} } @article {bnh-8374, title = {Firebrand transport from a novel firebrand generator: numerical simulation of laboratory experiments}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {31}, year = {2022}, month = {05/2022}, chapter = {634}, abstract = {

Firebrands (often called embers) increase the propagation rate of wildfires and often cause the ignition and destruction of houses. Predicting the motion of firebrands and the ignition of new fires is therefore of significant interest to fire authorities. Numerical models have the potential to accurately predict firebrand transport. The present study focuses on conducting a set of benchmark experiments using a novel firebrand generator, a device that produces controlled and repeatable sets of firebrands, and validating a numerical model for firebrand transport against this set of experiments. The validation is conducted for the transport of non-burning and burning cubiform firebrand particles at two flow speeds. Four generic drag sub-models used to estimate drag coefficients that are suited for a wide variety of firebrand shapes are verified for their applicability to firebrand transport modelling. The four sub-models are found to be good in various degrees at predicting the transport of firebrand particles.

}, keywords = {contour, contour peak location, drag models, embers, fire dynamics simulator, firebrand generator, Lagrangian particles, lateral spread, short-range firebrands}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF21088}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/Fulltext/WF21088}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani and Duncan Sutherland and A Ooi and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8326, title = {Fuels3D - final project report}, number = {723}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Understanding fuel hazard is essential. Effective management of Australia{\textquoteright}s fire prone landscapes relies on accurate consistent and up-to-date fuel characterisation. This project seeks to create a quantitative methodology for calculating fuel hazard, in surface and near surface fuel layers, using affordable consumer grade equipment. It is hoped that this methodology will enhance and supplement existing visual estimation methods used by land management agencies across Australia and demonstrate the utility of moving towards new approaches capable of creating quantitative outputs. The \ method uses a series of systematically acquired photographs to create a 3D point cloud that captures vegetation elements in the surface and near surface vegetation layers and their horizontal and vertical structure. These point clouds are then processed to create the metrics for deriving fuel hazard estimates.

The project methodological tool-chain is divided into five major components:

Each of these methods are embedded in an AWS workflow. The aim being to provide firefighting and land management agencies with an end-to-end semi-automated methodology for collecting, analysing and visualising fuel hazard information.

Although a viable methodology was developed and implemented, results varied by ecosystem. Woodlands, plantations, low open forest, open grasslands and low open shrublands systems all had good image matching and end metric conversion rates (\>90\%). In contrast, closed and other grasslands, shrublands and tall closed forest fuel types all had sample conversion rates below 65\%. The explanation of these large variances in success rates were explored with a number of image acquisition and processing factors identified.

There are many benefits to standardising data collection and harmonising metrics for reporting fuel hazard. Unlike visual assessments the reference photographs and associated point clouds exist in perpetuity and can be re-processed when new techniques emerge for their analysis. Comparing data gathered in different states, territories and jurisdictions also becomes much easier.

Feedback from end users was mixed. While many land managers felt this quantitative methodology had much merit others commented it was too time-consuming to replace current practices. Other (more costly) point cloud collection methods (Terrestrial Laser Scanners and Mobile Laser Scanners (LiDAR) as well as optical depth camera systems) have presented themselves as alternatives during the course of the project. With this in mind the research team has enabled the AWS tool chain to ingest other point cloud data into the fourth and fifth workflow elements. \ 

}, keywords = {fuel hazards, fuels3D, image-based, near-surface, point clouds, surface}, issn = {723}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Johann Tiede and Luke Wallace and Bryan Hally and Mark Robey} } @article {bnh-8338, title = {A guide to reconstructing cropland wildfires {\textendash} data collection, collation and analysis for case study construction}, number = {729}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This guide is intended to provide the fire behaviour analyst tasked with preparing a case study of a cropland wildfire with the basic set of methods, tools and information necessary to create a meaningful summary of the behaviour and spread of that fire. While the information and examples provided are specific to the case of wildfires burning in cropland fuels, the methods and tools are such that they can be applied to wildfires burning in any vegetation type given due consideration of the differences in the applicable factors and conditions.

This guide provides background information on the importance of undertaking case studies of wildfires, particularly across the broad range of wildfire types and intensities, for developing a case study library from which a large range of lessons may be learned{\textemdash}those immediately related to the incident itself but also those that may be gained from a perspective of time and space later.

A detailed discussion of fire behaviour in cropland fuels and the factors that affect fire perimeter shape and growth are discussed. The effects of suppression efforts, their effectiveness and likely impact on fire shape and spread are also discussed. Understanding the fuels and landscape features across which a cropland wildfire burns, in particular those non-crop fuels such as roadside verges and grazing paddocks, and their condition and state, are critical to interpreting observed fire behaviour and fire propagation across the landscape. Similarly, detailed information on the weather driving the wildfire is critical to understanding how and why a fire spread the way it did.\  These data can be divided into two groups{\textemdash}those that should be collected during the fire, such as observations of fire behaviour and spotting, and those that can be collected after the fire, such as fire progression and burnt area and crop status and distribution. Assessment of the reliability of the data collected for the purpose of compiling a case study is essential to providing context and informing assessment of dependability of data used for later analysis.

Finally, the guide provides suggestions for documenting the fire event, building the chronology and development of the incident, and writing a case study that is pithy and to the point. Checklists of essential information to be collected during and immediately after the fire (including sample fire spread observation forms), suggested observations to be collected from first attack personnel and prompter questions for when doing firefighter debriefs and interviews of eyewitnesses are also provided.

}, issn = {729}, author = {Sullivan, Andrew and Cruz, Miguel G. and Matt P Plucinski} } @article {bnh-8318, title = {Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact {\textendash} final project report}, number = {721}, year = {2022}, month = {02/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Extreme weather often occurs at relatively small scales.\  Accurate forecasts and understanding of such small-scale processes require high-resolution modelling.\  Forecasts are especially useful in severe weather events, since they play an essential role in allowing communities, industry and emergency services to prepare for and mitigate the impacts. Because forecasts are inherently uncertain in the severity, location and duration of an event, preparation needs to be more widespread than the eventual impact {\textendash} but this over-preparation comes at a cost.\  Detailed prediction of the probabilities of severe impacts would avoid the risk of failing to alert areas with the chance of an impact, while minimising the cost of over-warning.\ 

This project has studied the dynamics, predictability, and processes of severe weather, including fire weather, with the purpose of understanding phenomena with severe impact, improving forecasts of severe weather, and better depicting forecast uncertainty in these events. These goals help facilitate better risk management, improve user preparation, reduce adverse outcomes, and enable more effective mitigation.

The project has featured two main strands.

The first strand comprised case studies of severe weather events. For these, we have combined high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) with a wide range of in situ and remotely sensed observations, to better understand both the high-impact event in question, and other events of that class. All except one of the studies used a version of the Bureau{\textquoteright}s operational NWP system, ACCESS. The events comprised two severe mid-latitude systems (an east coast low, and a severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak), two severe fires, and a tropical cyclone, thereby covering the gamut of severe weather in Australia. Two of the studies featured ensemble simulation, with the east coast low case being the first time that ensemble ACCESS had been run at this resolution within the Bureau and foreshadowing the Bureau{\textquoteright}s new operational ensemble capability. Each case discovered important fine-scale features that contributed to the severity of the event, advancing our knowledge base and ability to respond.

The second strand studied two important phenomena associated with bushfire plumes: the formation of pyrocumulus clouds and ember transport. In each case, we began with idealised, high-resolution simulations of plumes using a large-eddy model. We used this technology, in which the model is run on a 50-m grid, to capture the most energetic size range of the turbulent eddies that are prominent in fire plumes. We found that the mean travel distance of firebrands depends mainly on wind speed and fire intensity, but the spread in the landing positions shifts from being substantially crosswind at light winds, to dominantly along-wind at high winds. This spread is greatly increased by the turbulence in the plume, and the maximum spotting distance can be more than double the mean for this reason.

We also used our plume modelling to study pyrocumulus clouds and analysed the processes that lead to pyrocumulus, with special attention on the relative importance of moisture from two sources, the atmosphere and combustion, and showed that the latter is negligible except in very dry environments. This somewhat controversial result has been confirmed by a conceptual study of the thermodynamics of pyrocumulus formation.

These initial studies laid a firm theoretical framework for our subsequent development of tools to provide predictions in a form, and at a speed, that is suitable for operational use.

For moist pyroconvection, we developed a paradigm to combine the necessary meteorological and fire information, the pyrocumulonimbus firepower threshold, or PFT. The PFT is defined as the power output from a fire at which pyroCb will begin to form and depends solely on meteorological parameters. Fires hotter than the PFT will initiate pyroCb, according to this paradigm, and cooler fires do not. We also developed a way of computing an approximate PFT from either NWP or observed data and tested this in real time during the extraordinarily severe 2019-20 fire season. The results of that trial were outstandingly successful, with nearly all the 30-odd events being captured, and the forecast guidance for non-events was also reported to have been extremely valuable. The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC have provided us with utilisation funding to take this tool another step closer to operational use. The tool has also attracted significant international interest, particularly given the recent spate of events in the USA. We have begun a utilisation project to take the PFT work further, detailed in this report.

For ember transport, we developed a simple model to predict plume-dominated transport, incorporating well-known plume modelling concepts, a model of plume turbulence, and a probabilistic model of ember transport within and beneath the plume. The results agree well with our large eddy-based simulations. This model was coupled to CSIRO{\textquoteright}s Spark fire-spread model and tested on the Kilmore East fire of Black Saturday with excellent results. The combination with Spark will make this tool suitable for future operational use, and the ember transport model could also, of course, be coupled to other fire spread simulators, including the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire. Working with CSIRO and AFAC, we are putting the necessary things in place to be able to convert the prototype implementation of the ember transport parameterisation in Spark, into an operationally robust and supported system. This will both facilitate further research, and provide the framework to allow users to learn, understand and apply the system.

The value of case studies has been reinforced by our being asked to undertake five case studies of severe fires from the 2019-20 summer. This work will be done jointly with our colleagues from the CRC Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling project, who further developed the ACCESS-Fire model. We expect that this work will provide an impetus to further develop and streamline that capability.

We are also very excited about the potential of the PFT and ember transport tools. While both are relatively early in their development, with the PFT being the more mature, each is presently producing very encouraging results. We are also very conscious that each is raising further scientific questions as they address others, and that both are at the beginning of a steep development and refinement curve that we expect will further improve their accuracy and utility. We are confident that further scientific investment will yield substantial dividends.

}, keywords = {community, Impact, prediction, severe, weather}, issn = {721}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory and Ching, Eng and Robert Fawcett and Serena Schroeter and W. Thurston and David Wilke and Dragana Zovko-Rajak} } @article {bnh-8321, title = {Informing post-fire recovery planning of northern NSW rainforests}, number = {721}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = { Melbourne}, abstract = {

In historic times rainforests have comprised less than 2\% of the total forested area of NSW (Baur 1987) yet they have played a pivotal role in the states early timber industry, and the development of conservation policy, and are the only plant community in NSW to have been included in the name of a World Heritage property. The Gondwanan rainforests evolved in an environment of dependable rainfall and low fire frequency. They have persisted through multiple climate oscillations and glacial/inter-glacial cycles in refugia scattered through the Great Escarpment uplift landform. They now represent a collection of relictual species whose origins can be traced to the Eocene Epoch 55-37 million years ago when cool temperate taxa such as Nothofagus first appears in the fossil record.

In northern New South Wales, temperate rainforests are typically considered to be vulnerable to climate-change related natural hazards such as extended spring droughts and wildfires. Numerous reviews predict that extreme climatic events are likely to increase in frequency and/or intensity in coming decades (CSIRO 2019, 2020) and that wildfires will become larger, more intense, and more frequent. The vulnerability of temperate rainforests to fire is assumed to be the result of their limited intrinsic post-fire regenerative capacity, their susceptibility to canopy scorch and bark damage, and extrinsic factors such as their landscape position as patches within extensive areas of elevated fuel hazard in wet sclerophyll forest and woodland plant communities. The impacts of wildfires on temperate rainforests are heightened because wildfires are naturally infrequent, the vegetation is poorly adapted to fire, and fuel biomass is abundant and contiguous in the surrounding landscape.

During the 2019/20 wildfire season, 18.1\% of the extent of NSW{\textquoteright}s rainforest vegetation classes experienced either low, moderate, high, or extreme severity wildfire, a scale un-anticipated in earlier land management risk planning. While the proportion of each class varied, the greatest impacts occurred in Dry Rainforest and Northern Warm Temperate Rainforest. Across the Gondwana Rainforest of Australia World Heritage property (Gondwana Rainforests), 16 of the 28 reserves in the NSW section saw some fire impacts. This resulted in 8.6\% of the 112,145 ha of rainforest in these reserves experiencing either low, moderate, high, or extreme severity wildfire. The extent of the fire impacts was greatest in the Hastings-Macleay, New England, and Washpool-Gibraltar Range sections of the Gondwana Rainforests. The focus of the current study is the Hastings-Macleay section.

The 2019/20 wildfire season coincided with the lowest annual rainfall recorded in the Hastings-Macleay study area since local records commenced in 1959. Soil moisture deficits in rainforest were at their lowest recorded levels at the end of an extended spring drought in northern NSW. An analysis using data from a decade of soil moisture monitoring indicated that when soil moisture in rainforest reached 10-20\%, the rainforests become susceptible to fuel ignition and sustaining a wildfire.

In November 2019 multiple ignitions and running wildfires were occurring across northern NSW, and fire-fighting resources were prioritised to life and property protection. On November 9th 2019, an unprecedented seventeen wildfires were at Emergency Warning level on the same day in NSW, fire behaviour was erratic and rainforests were igniting and sustaining running fires. The wildfires impacted directly on long-term research plots established in 1959 in Werrikimbe and Willi National Parks in landscapes with extensive localised climate monitoring equipment. Resources were rapidly deployed within weeks of the wildfire impacting the research infrastructure to capture key elements of fire behaviour and commence post-fire assessments. With the financial support of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and NSW NPWS, citizen science volunteers began to measure the impacts of the wildfires and describe the recovery trajectory of the rainforest stands within the parks.

The long-term research plots provide a baseline to understanding pre-fire rainforest stand dynamics and condition. The 60 years of accumulated data highlighted the high biomass, slow growth rates, and highly episodic nature of tree regeneration in these rainforests. Annualized tree mortality was less than 1\%, and canopy dieback was associated with previous selective harvesting in the 1960s. Fine fuel biomass is low and inputs are strongly seasonal. Basal fire scars were present on trees across the stands surveyed prior to the 2019/20 wildfire season, indicating past wildfires had occurred in these rainforests during the past century, and it appears the majority of established trees were resilient to their effects. Evidence from char heights indicates the predominant fire behaviour experienced by the larger rainforest trees is low-intensity litter fires that progress slowly through the rainforest stands. This was corroborated in discussions with fire managers who had witnessed fires across multiple northern NSW rainforest reserves. Evidence from archival fire reporting and mapping suggests that the typical fire season in the 1950s peaked in November and now peaks two months earlier. These rainforests are approaching the driest months in early spring when lightning ignitions are also at their seasonal maximum.

Wildfires entered rainforest from front or flank spread leading to attrition of trees on rainforest margins. Monitoring dominant trees for 12 years in smaller rainforest stands demonstrated that they can tolerate multiple fires until their structural integrity weakens and fails. In 2019/20 ember attack was widespread in rainforest, but generally led to the ignition of small, localised areas (\<100 m2) or of individual trees. Mortality rates associated with the wildfires were 20-30\% across all tree species, with the proportion increasing with the severity of the wildfire event. This figure may prove to be an underestimate as lagged tree mortality effects from wildfires have been reported elsewhere for rainforests. The majority of burnt trees regenerated with basal coppicing. Seedling regeneration of tree species was infrequent due to the lack of a soil or canopy seed bank. Coppicing was more abundant where fire severity was low. Large trees with well-developed buttress hollows and scars were more likely to ignite due to the accumulation of dry wood and fuel at their base compared to smaller trees. Larger, older trees that had more pre-existing fire scars were more likely to die and collapse after burning. This is potentially an age effect where older and larger (diameter and height) trees have been subjected to more fire-induced wounds and hollows.

The temperate rainforests of northern NSW have been subject to wildfires in the past, and have a level of resilience to them. However, the susceptibility of the canopy dominant rainforest trees to basal wounding and collapse is a concern due to the longevity and age of these trees, their role in maintaining the rainforest microclimate, and their importance as habitat to a very diverse cargo of epiphytic bryophytes. Options to manage wildfire risk using conventional zoning and fuel hazard management may be limited. Fuel hazard was not particularly high during the 2019/20 wildfire season in the Hastings-Macleay section of Gondwana Rainforests, with most areas burnt in 2019 also having been burnt in 2013. Regardless, landscape-level fuel hazard management will not address the risk of individual mature rainforest tree ignition during conditions of significant ember attack when rainforest fine fuel biomass is naturally low.

A range of proposals are made to improve the knowledge base to better inform the spatially explicit wildfire risk assessment process trialled following the 2019/20 wildfire season. The central recommendation is the scoping of a systematic Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting (MER) system for the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia World Heritage property (Gondwana Rainforests) that focuses on establishing a baseline to track trends in the nominated World Heritage outstanding universal values or criteria. The system will require an integrated remote sensing and ground-based plot monitoring approach stratified by rainforest type and location. The monitoring plots established for this study can be readily integrated into the proposed MER system, and can be used to test the significance of ongoing or lagged tree mortality and to validate models of post-wildfire tree mortality and regeneration.

The current study has informed post-fire recovery planning by assessing the significance of the impacts of the 2019/20 wildfire season on rainforest stand structure, composition, tree mortality, and regeneration strategies. While the field measurements were in progress, recovery planning workshops hosted by the Commonwealth and NSW governments were attended and preliminary results were provided. The availability of existing long-term rainforest monitoring experiments dating from the 1950s, sections of which were burnt in November 2019, was critical to providing preliminary results within months of the fire event (Peacock 2020) to inform post-fire recovery planning. This outcome alone underscores the critical role long-term ecological monitoring systems have in rapidly supporting land managers information needs when responding to widespread natural hazards such as landscape-scale wildfires.

}, keywords = {nsw, Planning, post-fire, rainforests, recovery}, issn = {721}, author = {Ross Peacock and Baker, Patrick} } @article {bnh-8335, title = {Investigating the suitability of aviation tracking data for use in bushfire suppression effectiveness research}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Aircraft are an important part of bushfire suppression and their use is increasing. They were used heavily during the 2019/20 {\textquotedblleft}Black Summer{\textquotedblright} bushfire season in NSW and several inquiries have highlighted the need for research into their effectiveness.

Tracking equipment is becoming routinely deployed on aircraft and there is increasing availability of high-quality ancillary data such as aerial imagery and fire severity mapping. These allow detailed analyses of aircraft activities. However, the usefulness of the data needs to be evaluated, and the analysis needs to be informed by information about the tasking objectives of the aircraft and whether those objectives were met.

This project provides an initial investigation into the process of evaluating aerial suppression using these new data sources and interviews with personnel involved in the suppression activities.

Firebombing event data (drops/fills) from the 2019/2020 bushfire season in NSW from the National Aerial Firefighting Centre (NAFC){\textquoteright}s Arena database was provided by the NSW Rural Fire Service. This data included ~70000 aircraft suppression drop locations and times from aircraft that included helicopters (mainly large and medium helitaks), Single-Engine Air Tankers and Large Air Tankers. As an initial step, we examined the data for completeness, accuracy and errors, and described the data contents. This data was missing for most of the aircraft known to be dropping on the fires, especially the smaller ones. The type of drop (gel, water, retardant) was unknown in most cases, the quantity dropped was unknown in 45\% of cases, and the location for the end of drops was often unreliable.

We then tested methods to identify drop objectives based on relationships between drops data and other spatial data including building locations and weather. Using a combination of automated pattern matching and manual checking, the data can be used to identify cases where the objective was initial attack, extinguishing spot fires, asset protection, pre-emptive laying of retardant lines and direct attack. There were a few cases where the success or failure of the objective could be assessed purely with the spatial data. We also explored two particular analytical methods for determining objectives. First, we compared the distribution of Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI, fire weather) during a fire and for the drops within that fire. This identified several fires for which a large proportion of the drops were more likely to be during extreme fire weather even though extreme weather was rare in that fire. Second, we compared the distribution of distance to houses between all parts of the fire and the drops at that fire. Here we found many fires where the drops were clustered closer to houses than if the drops were (hypothetically) spread evenly across the fire ground. These analyses are preliminary but show great potential.

We conducted 10 interviews with personnel who worked as Air Attack Supervisors during the 2019/20 season. Interviewees were knowledgeable and experienced, and expressed the view that the aerial program could be improved with further knowledge sharing and training. They provided a lot of general information about objectives, how they learned during the season, their views on limitations in aerial suppression, and their own capacity to document the process.

The interviews also highlighted several operational issues that warrant more investigation using a large number of aviation specialists and more specific questions. Chief among these are:

We conducted eight detailed case studies where there were interesting features in the drop data and insightful comments from the interviewees. These were particular days at a particular part of a fire. They included one example with multiple objectives playing out as one failed and the fire spread changed, several where property protection was the dominant objective (largely successful), one on spot fires, and two initial attacks, of which one succeeded and the other failed.\  The case studies demonstrate the power of the approach where spatial data and interview interpretation are combined.

The air drop data has the potential to enable deep analyses of aircraft use and effectiveness during real bushfire responses, especially when combined with other contextual information, such as objectives and environmental conditions. This will require more matching of the data to interviews to determine whether the drop data can be used in this way. We have started this process in this report, identifying clear clusters of activity related to weather and distance to houses, and cross-checking with interviews in the case study, and in some of these cases, the success could be judged. In order to realise the full potential of this approach, the completeness and accuracy of the drop data should be improved and interviews should become a routine part of the seasonal review process.

}, issn = {725}, author = {Heather Simpson and Michael Storey and Matt P Plucinski and Owen Price} } @article {bnh-8305, title = {Mapping how outputs from various Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC projects could be combined to address the issue of how to best manage fuel to reduce bushfire risk into the future}, number = {718}, year = {2022}, month = {01/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project reviewed all of the Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC (CRC) publications hosted on the CRC website to identify outputs that could be of interest in addressing the issue of how to best manage fuel to reduce bushfire risk into the future.

We identified 12 projects part of five research clusters involving a wide range of actors: Prescribed burning and catchment management, Economics and strategic decisions, Bushfire predictive services, Governance and institutional knowledge, Understanding and enhancing resilience which could offer potential synergies with the Mechanical Fuel Load Reduction (MFLR) Utilisation Project. The most relevant outputs were summarised in conceptual diagrams (mind-maps), and possible utilisation for the MFLR milestones was highlighted in each section.

}, issn = {718}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Tim McNaught and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-8304, title = {Opportunities for alternative fuel load reduction approaches - summary report}, number = {719}, year = {2022}, month = {01/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Planned burning is one of the most utilised fuel management activities, but the safe and effective application of this method is likely to be hindered by climate change (e.g. shrinking and shifting windows of opportunity) and potential adverse societal outcomes (e.g. smoke impact, risk of fire escape). For this reason, fire managers need access to detailed information to help them make informed decisions and select a fuel management strategy that is compatible with a range of factors.

This project explored the use of experts{\textquoteright} knowledge and the UNHaRMED Decision Support System (DSS) framework (an integrated spatio-temporal model for analysing natural hazard risk within urban and rural environments) to assess the opportunities and risks associated with different approaches to reducing bushfire risk via fuel management.

This project identified:

This report presents the major findings from the Fuel Load Reduction Utilisation Project and proposes future research directions identified by end-users, building on this project{\textquoteright}s results. The proposed projects could help develop policies and strategies for reducing risk in emerging bushfire risk areas at the State and national scale by offering a range of fuel management activities adapted to specific regional conditions, which could change over time.

}, issn = {719}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Roel Vanhout and Tim McNaught and Mike Wouters and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-8328, title = {Post-fire impact assessment of Tasmanian sphagnum bogs}, number = {724}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the summer of 2015-2016 several large dry lightning storms ignited wildfires that burned across Western Tasmanian landscapes desiccated by the combination of severe spring drought and above average summer temperatures. Approximately 20 000 ha of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area burnt including Sphagnum moss communities, or {\textquoteleft}sphagnum bogs{\textquoteright}, and other significant areas of high conservation value Gondwanan refugia. The scale of the fires prompted the Tasmanian government to fund research in techniques to rehabilitate fire-impacted Gondwanan refugia, including sphagnum bogs, in the Lake Mackenzie area of the Northern Central Plateau. A key step in sphagnum bog restoration is the development of rapid, broad-scale, cost-effective and low impact survey techniques to identify sites in need of rehabilitation. We trialled unmanned aerial systems (UAS) with visible spectrum sensor technology to map fire extent and severity.\  Three sphagnum bogs were used to develop an ENVI classification workflow based on a training data set of burn severity categories and other ecological surface cover measurements to map burn severity.\  These maps were validated using ocular assessments of ground cover and burn severity in pre-existing permanently marked quadrats. We found poor to moderate agreement between the UAS and field fire severity with considerable variation amongst the sampled bogs. Total burnt area sphagnum bog maps were then produced by combining burnt severity categories for five bogs, including the three used for fire severity mapping, The congruence between Sphagnum burn extent maps with field data collected by differential Global Positioning System was found to range from substantial to poor according to Cohen{\textquoteright}s Kappa index. Multivariate analysis of the quadrat ground cover assessments showed that high grass cover was most strongly associated with poor field validation agreement (low Kappa scores), whereas acceptable field validation agreement (high Kappa scores), were associated with high cover of Sphagnum. A major constraint of this study was the two-year time gap between the fire and remote sensing mapping and field survey. Higher accuracy fire severity mapping and area burned mapping would be possible if imagery was acquired immediately after a fire event. In light of our findings, we provide recommendations for future UAS surveys of fire impacted sphagnum bogs, the most critical of which is acquiring remote sensing and field data in the same growing season as the fire.

}, keywords = {bogs, impact assessment, post-fire, sphagnum, Tasmanian}, issn = {724}, author = {Morgan Harding and Darren Turner and Grant Williamson and Scott Nichols and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-8373, title = {A review of firebrand studies on generation and transport}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {134}, year = {2022}, month = {09/2022}, abstract = {

Firebrands play a vital role in the propagation of fire by starting new fires called spotfires, ahead of the fire front during wildfire progression. Firebrands are a harbinger of damage to infrastructure; their effects particularly pose a threat to people living within the wildland-urban-interface, they can hamper the suppression of wildfire and block evacuation routes for communities and emergency services. Short-range firebrands which travel along with the wind, with little or no lofting, are particularly crucial in increasing fire front propagation and damaging structures situated close to the wildland-urban interface. In the Daylesford fire of 1962 in Australia, massive short-range spotting (the process of spot fire ignition and merging of spots caused by firebrands) occurred in the eucalyptus forest and increased the rate of fire spread by roughly three times more than that computed using an operational fire model. Similarly, long-range firebrands can be transported by the fire plume and ambient wind and can ignite new fire up to 30{\textendash}40\ km from the source of fire as observed in the 2009 Black Saturday fire in Australia.

A large amount of experimental research has been conducted to quantify the effects of firebrands, to develop empirical models and to benchmark results for\ Computational Fluid Dynamic\ (CFD) based fire model validations. In recent years, some CFD models have been studied primarily for their validation purposes. These studies have been reviewed here. To perform useful\ parametric studies\ of firebrand transport using CFD models as well as further development of CFD models, more targeted studies need to be conducted.

}, keywords = {firebrand generator, Firebrand spotting, Firebrand transport, wildfires}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2022.103674}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379711222001515}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani and Catherine Sullivan and Amila Wickramasinghe and Matthew Kyng and Nazmul Khan and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8343, title = {Spotfire utilisation project: implementation of the VLS filter}, number = {730}, year = {2022}, month = {05/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The aim of this research was to produce an operational tool to assist fire agency personnel in assessing the potential for extreme bushfire development. Specifically, this work{\textquoteright}s intention was to aid in the identification of regions of the landscape that are prone to mass spotting and other dynamic fire behaviour associated with vorticity-driven lateral spread (VLS). The research was divided into three phases: 1) calibration of the slope scale to each DEM, 2) creation of the filter (first and second order) and finally refinement of the filter and, 3) develop training material and ensure filters and related documents are distributed to relevant personnel.

The first-order and second-order wind-terrain filter enables the user to identify parts of the terrain which are susceptible to VLS through its established association with steep or broken leeward facing terrain elements. This is achieved using terrain attributes such as topographic slope, aspect, and profile curvature, as well as environmental variables such as the wind speed and direction. This builds upon the research initially undertaken as part of the original Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre.

This report summarises the three phases of the project, during which time the researchers have gained familiarity and VLS mapping capability with the GIS software {\textquotedblleft}ArcGIS Pro{\textquotedblright}, which is used to create and validate the wind-terrain filters. This facilitated the two main research objectives {\textendash} to develop and then refine the first order and second order wind-terrain filters so that they may be applied using DEMs of any resolution.

Initially, this involved manual tuning of the first-order wind-terrain filter{\textquoteright}s parameters to fit a number of calibration events. This tuning was also confirmed through analyses of slope distributions over various landscape domains. These static cases were then validated with real case conditions and the filter compared to areas where VLS was known to have occurred. Scaling thresholds for the 30, 90 and 250 metre resolution DEMs were also evaluated explicitly, and a general linear model has been determined to allow estimation of parameter thresholds for more general DEM resolutions.

The second-order filter was then designed and tested in a similar manner to the first-order filter.\  The two filters were then merged into a combined operational product, which was also validated using known cases of VLS. \ Both filters are presented here - separately and as a combined product - for the operational consideration of end-users. \ End-user feedback was then evaluated to further tailor the operational product to specific operational needs, platforms, and formats. Due to travel restrictions static filters have been produced for immediate use. Development of a dynamic mapping tool is also continuing in which other factors such as the forecast wind speed and direction (and potentially other variables) can be incorporated automatically to provide heightened operational intelligence on extreme bushfire development.

}, issn = {730}, author = {Badlan, R and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-8307, title = {Supporting new volunteers: a resource kit for emergency service volunteer leaders}, number = {720}, year = {2022}, month = {01/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 2019-20 Australian bushfires ({\textquoteleft}Black Summer{\textquoteright}) caused a spike in volunteer inquiries. The devastating impact the bushfires had on the environment, animal populations, and the homes and livelihood of many Australians prompted considerable interest in volunteering for emergency services. Absent large-scale disasters, attracting and retaining volunteers are major challenges for emergency volunteer brigades, groups, and units (BGUs). However, the aftermath of the 2019-20 bushfires left volunteer leaders and managers with little guidance as to how they can properly onboard, support, lead, and manage the sudden influx of new volunteers and ensure that they are prepared for future bushfire seasons. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic that followed the bushfires shortly after left an increased appetite for online learning as face-to-face training was sometimes not possible.

Following the work of the Enabling Sustainable Emergency Volunteering project[1], as well as through research conducted with the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), the Supporting New Volunteers: A Resource Kit for Emergency Service Volunteer Leaders was proposed and created with the intention of providing both volunteers and staff members within emergency services organisations the guidance and tools to better support volunteer recruitment, onboarding, and leadership. These are research-based resources designed to complement and reinforce existing training and support available within emergency service organisations.

There are three modules available within the resource kit:

These modules contain resources that drew from real-life volunteer case studies and the available research evidence. The training information includes short (2-4 minute) training videos, volunteer interviews, {\textquoteleft}tip sheets{\textquoteright}, checklists, case studies, thinking exercises, reflection exercises, and editable templates.

It is hoped that these accessible and practical resources will empower and support volunteer leaders and emergency service staff members in their mission to attract, support, manage, and retain current and future volunteers in BGUs.

}, keywords = {emergency service, leaders, resource, training, volunteers}, issn = {720}, author = {Patrick Dunlop and Hawa Farid and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Darja Kragt} } @article {bnh-8325, title = {Using Digital Earth Australia Waterbodies to support aerial firefighting}, number = {722}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Up to date information about the spatial distribution of water that is suitable for use by firefighting aircraft is required to:

The Digital Earth Australia (DEA) Waterbodies tool provides information water in waterbodies bigger than four Olympic swimming pools.\  This information is updated with every cloud free satellite overpass (satellite revisit every 16 days).

The aim of this project was to:

FINDINGS

DEA Waterbodies v1 was found to be suitable for start-of-season, severe fire danger period and start-of-fire information for command centres seeking to identify water availability within range of Helitak airpads (both permanent and temporary airpads).\  However, at present, its utility for pre-flight information for pilots was minimal based on the following limitations.

Waterbody size limitations

Limitations of DEA Waterbodies v1 Noting that the 25 metre pixel size provides a fundamental constraint on the minimum size of waterbodies that can be reliably detected using Landsat. A waterbody must be larger than 3125m2 (5 Landsat pixels) to be included in the DEA Waterbodies v1 polygon set.\  The water surface area in these polygons will be tracked down to 625m2 (a single Landsat pixel). This means that there will be many waterbodies that are suitable for access by small rotary wing aircraft that are not captured in the DEA Waterbodies v1 product.\  A future version of the DEA Waterbodies product could include smaller waterbodies to improve its utility for aerial firefighting stakeholders.\  This could be achieved by:

Timeliness limitations

Waterbody fill level information is of greatest utility to firefighting agencies when it is as up-to-date as possible.\  The timeliness of DEA waterbodies fill level information is determined by two elements:

Polygon attributes

Waterbody fill level information is of greatest utility to firefighting agencies when presented in the context of whether that waterbody is suitable for use by a specific aircraft type.\  Waterbody-aircraft suitability can be determined either via matching the historical fill activity for a particular aircraft type (demonstrated in this study) or via a spatial analysis of constraints (workflow described here for future implementation).

}, keywords = {aerial firefighting, DEA, waterbodies}, issn = {722}, author = {Leo Lymburner and Claire Krause and Robbi Bishop-Taylor and Brett Madsen} } @article {bnh-8359, title = {Victorian bushfire case studies - Black Summer final report}, year = {2022}, month = {09/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Understanding the interaction of weather, fuels and landscape is essential in determining the propagation and spread of bushfires. The fires of Black Summer in Victoria burnt 1.5 million hectares and continued for three months. This project has systematically collected multiple sources of information and begun a reconstruction of the bushfire spread and behaviour for most fires for this period. With this information, it is now possible to show what occurred and when. From this, it is then possible to investigate why it happened and be able to better predict future occurrences.

This study has

}, issn = {734}, author = {Owen Salkin} } @article {bnh-8354, title = {Why take the risk? Exploring the psychosocial determinants of floodwater driving}, journal = {Frontiers in Psychology}, volume = {13}, year = {2022}, month = {07/2022}, pages = {13}, type = {Original Research}, abstract = {

As anthropogenic climate change progresses, there is an increasing need for individuals to make appropriate decisions regarding their approach to extreme weather events. Natural hazards are involuntary risk environments (e.g., flooded roads); interaction with them cannot be avoided (i.e., a decision must be made about how to engage). While the psychological and sociocultural predictors of engagement with voluntary risks (i.e., risk situations that are sought out) are well-documented, less is known about the factors that predict engagement with involuntary risk environments. This exploratory study assessed whether mental health (depression, anxiety, and stress symptoms), personality traits, and cultural worldviews combine to predict engagement with involuntary risk, using the situation of floodwater driving. An Australian sample (N = 235) was assessed via questionnaire and scenario measures. Results were analyzed in a binomial logistic regression assessing which individual factors predicted decision-making in a proxy floodwater driving scenario. Agreeableness and gender were individually significant predictors of floodwater driving intention, and four factors (named {\textquotedblleft}affect,{\textquotedblright} {\textquotedblleft}progressiveness,{\textquotedblright} {\textquotedblleft}insightfulness,{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}purposefulness{\textquotedblright}) were derived from an exploratory factor analysis using the variables of interest, though only two ({\textquotedblleft}progressiveness{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}insightfulness{\textquotedblright}) predicted floodwater driving intention in an exploratory binomial logistic regression. The findings highlight the need for further research into the differences between voluntary and involuntary risk. The implication of cultural worldviews and personality traits in interaction with mental health indicators on risk situations is discussed.

}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2022.913790}, url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.913790/full}, author = {Shauntelle Benjamin and Melissa Parsons and Deborah Apthorp and Amy Lykins} } @article {bnh-8336, title = {Yanchep bushfire analysis {\textendash} Black Summer final report}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Yanchep bushfire occurred in 11-15 December 2019 and was one of several noteworthy bushfires in Western Australia during the summer period. This bushfire coincided with some of the worst fire behaviour in NSW and Victoria and all were influenced by related climate processes.\ \  The Yanchep bushfire burned over ~12,300 ha spanning a diverse range of vegetation types (coastal dunes and heath, limestone heath, woodlands) and fire management histories.\ 

Despite rapidly expanding literature on fire severity classification, drivers of fire behaviour, and other important operational considerations key knowledge gaps remain in Western Australia.\  The Yanchep bushfire represents an excellent opportunity to develop fire knowledge for the Western Australia fire community and contribute to growing local fire science capacity.\  This project sought to classify fire severity using two complementary approaches, map vegetation at a finer scale than previously available, determine baseline biomass and fuel loads across key vegetation types, and assess the roles of fire weather, vegetation, and prior management in determining fire severity.

We were able to classify fire severity successfully (with 78\% accuracy) using both field-based training data as well as a battery of remote sensing metrics.\  Vegetation mapping using soil types and field validation yielded a higher quality map than previously available.\  Fuel load estimates provide an important range of values across vegetation types and fire histories. \ Lastly, examining bushfire severity in relation to prior fire, fire weather, and vegetation type showed clear interactions of previous fire in the prior 2-3 years,with beach-associated vegetation burning at lower severity, and limestone heath burning at higher severity.\ 

Collectively, these characteristics provide key insights for end-users in WA and more broadly, enabling fire severity mapping, informing fire operations, providing finer grained vegetation maps and fuel loads, and enabling an understanding of how prescribed burning in coastal plain vegetation types can influence bushfire spread and suppression.\ \ 

Future applications of this work will hopefully include:

  1. Fire severity mapping across the Swan Coastal Plain and then the entirety of the southwestern conservation estate managed by DBCA and eventually all land tenures.\ 
  2. Scaling up this proof of concept work to update vegetation maps and associated fuel load estimates in the Perth region.\  Such products are urgently needed by end-user organisations such as DFES, DBCA, and local government.\ 
  3. The basic reconstruction analyses presented in this report can be readily extended to incorporate broader data sets and more nuanced analyses to reveal the interplay of vegetation type, fire history, and fuels-fuel moisture dynamics.\ 
  4. Ecological feedbacks to fuel loads and bushfire hazard. Many areas experienced short interval fires and continued efforts can reveal the impact on vegetation regrowth and flow through effects on fuel loads and overall bushfire hazard (i.e. changed composition and structure effects on future bushfire hazard).
}, issn = {726}, author = {Joe Fontaine} } @article {bnh-8276, title = {Assessing community resilience for emergencies in local government policy: summary}, number = {618}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Yarra Ranges Council, Maroondah City Council and the Knox City Council partnered with the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to evaluate Maroondah and Knox policies to see where and how they align with and incorporate resilience. The Assessing community resilience for emergencies in local government policy (ACRE) project also highlighted some strategic issues that are potentially relevant for local government and disaster resilience policy more broadly.

All levels of the Australian Government adopted the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience in 2011 (NSDR) and its implementation is ongoing. The NSDR aims to shift national policy away from the traditional focus on disaster response toward planning and prevention to reduce the risk of natural disasters and the severity of their consequences. The National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework was launched in 2020 and builds on the NSDR and references resilience.

Not only that, but a resilience-based approach will improve the {\textquoteleft}capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses and systems within a city to survive, adapt and grow not matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience{\textquoteright} (Mulligan et al, 2016). Local government is a key partner in achieving these goals because of its proximity to the community and the array of assets, services and programs it manages that are vital to the well-being of local communities. Local councils also have a legal responsibility to develop and maintain and review policies in critical areas, including for disasters and other emergencies. This provides opportunities to build the resilience of communities by pivoting local government policies and programs toward approaches that are proven to support resilience. In order to do this, Maroondah and Knox City Councils sought, as a first step, to better understand how their existing policies are compatible with resilience, the extent to which resilience was incorporated in policies and what areas can be improved.\ 

}, keywords = {community, council, emergencies, Local government, Policy, resilience}, issn = {618}, author = {Susan Hunt} } @article {bnh-8259, title = {Assessing community resilience for emergencies in local government policy - Maroondah City Council and Knox City Council}, number = {617}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Exposure to hazards may result in emergencies or disasters that have the potential to overwhelm the capacity of communities to respond and recover effectively. In terms of natural hazards, an increase in the incidence of extreme weather events linked to climate change is expected to result in greater disaster losses in the future. Resilience-based approaches have been adopted in Australia and overseas to deal with this problem.

Resilience is a term that is used across multiple disciplines, including in the physical and material sciences, psychology, ecology, environmental science and more recently, in emergency and disaster management (Alexander, D.E. 2013). Therefore, it has many definitions, several of which reflect its significance as the guiding principle for emergency and disaster management in Australia,

{\textquoteleft}Resilience is the ability of system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management{\textquoteright} (United Nations Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2019), or

The definition developed for the 100 Resilient Cities Project in Melbourne:

{\textquoteleft}Resilience is the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses and systems within a city to survive, adapt and grown no matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience{\textquoteright} (Mulligan et al, 2016, p.10).

A definition of resilience has also been developed as part of the Australian Disaster Resilience Index (ADRI) project:

{\textquoteleft}Resilience is the capacity of communities to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazard events and to learn, adapt and transform in ways that enhance these capacities in the face of future events{\textquoteright} (Parsons, 2016 p.6).

The National Strategy for Disaster Resilience was adopted in 2011 by all levels of Australian Government (Commonwealth of Australia, 2011). This marked a policy shift away from an emphasis on dealing with the aftermath of disasters toward a stronger focus on disaster preparation and planning, and the reduction and management of hazards. In 2018, a National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework (NDRRF)[i] (Commmonwealth of Australia, 2018) was introduced to guide disaster risk reduction activities for greater resilience. Importantly, the NDRRF deals with the increasing problem of disasters by considering the whole system and its interdependencies.\  In doing so it incorporates sustainability and climate change adaptation goals.

While State Governments play the major role in emergency management, the hazards, risks and the nature and severity of disaster impacts vary according to highly localised social, economic and environmental factors (Cutter et al, 2008). The adverse impacts from natural disasters that are invariably experienced at the local level may be sustained for many years afterwards. Local Government is the level of government that is closest to the community and, as such, it maintains a long-term commitment to managing local issues associated with emergencies and disasters. This role is integrally linked to local government{\textquoteright}s broader responsibility for the planning and provision of the majority of services and infrastructure in their constituent communities.\  There are 597 local government areas in Australia (Australian Local Government Association, 2020) with 79 in Victoria (Victorian Local Government Association, 2020.) Therefore, the services provided by local government and the policies and plans that shape them have a profound influence on the quality of life and the wellbeing of the Australian population as a whole. Local government is in a unique position to strengthen community resilience for emergencies, both through its local emergency management policies and plans and also, and perhaps more pervasively, through opportunities to positively influence the determinants of resilience through its broad range of council policies and plans.

In order to explore some of these opportunities, Yarra Ranges Council and the Maroondah and Knox City Councils asked the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) to evaluate their policies in terms of resilience. They were seeking answers to the question: To what extent do our council policies support resilience for emergencies or disasters? This project, titled Assessing Community Resilience for Emergencies in Local Government Policies (ACRE) was developed to examine the alignment between existing local government policies and the characteristics that enable community resilience. Maroondah and Knox City Councils were chosen as case studies. As a starting-point, councils were interested in evaluating their policies in relation to the Community Reslience Framework for Emergency Management (Emergency Management Victoria, 2017), developed by the Victorian State Government.

The idea that social resilience is intrinsic to resilience for emergencies or disasters is a central message in the Community Resilience Framework for Emergency Management (ibid). It provides policy guidance to encourage local government to embed resilience into its everyday activities, not only to improve the general health, wellbeing and prosperity of their communities, but as a way of highlighting how local communities can play their part in improving their ability to plan, prepare for, and to withstand and recover from adverse events.

In order to explore their full potential for strengthening resilience, councils also sought to evaluate their policies more broadly. The two councils{\textquoteright} policies were assessed against resilience information found in the academic literature. This research complements the Community Resilience Framework for Emergency Management (ibid) and adds to the body of evidence about local government{\textquoteright}s existing contribution and inherent potential to enhance community resilience for emergencies.

}, keywords = {community, council, emergencies, Local government, Policy, resilience}, issn = {617}, author = {Susan Hunt} } @article {bnh-8119, title = {Australian Exposure Information Platform enhancement project}, number = {682}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

The Australian Exposure Information Platform (AEIP) has been utilised for purposes of disaster preparedness, response and recovery since its release in 2018. The AEIP is currently the only service of its kind that can provide the Emergency Management (EM) sector with nationally consistent exposure information, 24/7.

GA and end-users have documented several areas in which the AEIP web mapping application (WMA) can be improved upon. Firstly, the user interface and functionality were improved through the addition of tools allowing users to create Exposure Reports for known geographies (e.g., Local Government Areas), thus allowing persons without spatial expertise greater flexibility when using the WMA.

Secondly, Exposure Reports could initially only be obtained through individual requests and there was limited functionality embedded within the WMA to give end-users the ability to submit multiple reports. Users can now request up to five different exposure report requests in one submission.

Furthermore, while the WMA excels in supplying nationally consistent exposure information, in the form of an exposure report, user{\textquoteright}s feedback suggests that there is a need to understand what is exposed in more of a dynamic way to keep paces with evolving and changing information requirements. \ Hence a complimentary service, accessing the same data, via a Dynamic Exposure Dashboard (DED) for emergency management situational awareness was devleoped.

The AEIP Enhancement Project{\textquoteright}s objectives are threefold:

  1. Enhance the AEIP WMA to increase accessibility and usability
  2. Develop an AEIP DED to provide Emergency responders with a situational awareness tool.
  3. Engage stakeholders to understand their use of AEIP information and to guide the enhancements suggested for the WMA, and the features and functionality of the DED

Method

GA{\textquoteright}s Landscape Information Section (LIS) have approached the issues within AEIP in three interconnected strategies: (1) Web Map Enhancement Strategy, (2) DED Strategy, and (3) Stakeholder Engagement Strategy.

The Web Map Enhancement Strategy involved the project team engaging GA{\textquoteright}s Digital Science and Information Section (DiSI) to outline the proposed changes to the existing web mapping functionality. DiSI created the changes in a non-production environment where they could be tested without affecting the current production environment. The non-production environment underwent iterative user testing within GA to ensure any changes are fit for production. DiSI then implement the changes to the production environment. Throughout the process, key stakeholders were engaged as part of a feedback cycle into the Stakeholder Engagement Strategy.

The DED Strategy was broken down into numerous technical tasks. Firstly, GA{\textquoteright}s enterprise Geographic Information Systems (eGIS) team set up the appropriate environment within the organisations ArcGIS Online Account (AGOL). Secondly, the project team developed a project management plan (PMP) to ensure that all the metadata requirements were met and that all project information was maintained and recorded within GA{\textquoteright}s electronic catalog system (eCat) Thirdly, the project team iteratively develop the DED and liaised with stakeholders through to the beta product release in June 2021.

The Stakeholder Engagement Strategy iteratively looped back into the aforementioned strategies to ensure that the project teams{\textquoteright} actions were the result of stakeholder input. Firstly, the project team defined the stakeholders through sampling AEIPs current user base. Secondly, stakeholders were engaged through a mixture of qualitative (video conferencing and in-person meetings/showcases) and quantitative (on-line survey) methods. Thirdly, feedback and responses were implemented into the development of either Web Map Enhancement Strategy or DED Strategy. Lastly, stakeholders were reengaged through qualitative means to assess the project team{\textquoteright}s development actions.

Research findings

The project team had mixed responses surrounding the engagement of AEIP stakeholders. Qualitative means of engagement gave a higher response rate with more actionable feedback. Engagements through quantitative methods, such as the online survey proved less effective, with 13 responses from a potential 700-person audience. Many or the respondents are members of the Emergency Management Spatial Information Network (EMSINA) or work in state emergency services {\textendash} primarily agencies that already use AEIP products and understand the value it adds to their business or operational needs.

A key finding amongst stakeholders was that the AEIP data is not used uniformly; the range of uses include planning purposes, at-a-glance information during hazard events, comparative analysis, integration into other products/documents, estimates, and recovery and planning. Consistent across many of the stakeholders was the predilection to use on the ground information relayed from first responders over AEIP data, and that Emergency Service Agencies (ESA) are also hesitant in using AEIP data as they preferred, and were more familiar with, data within their own and often-bespoke platforms.\ 

Research findings also suggest that a significant barrier to ESAs using AEIP services is lack of awareness of the product, rather than the product not being fit for purpose. Other findings from stakeholders surrounding the WMA and Exposure Report are that health-related data would be a worthwhile inclusion (such as the number of beds in hospitals, rooms in respite centres, the number of general practitioners, chemists, and other medical related information). This largely a response to the need for infrastructure information in relation to COVID-19.

Research findings showed that ESAs primarily view the DED as a situational awareness tool for use in situation and planning rooms. As a result, stakeholders value the ability to add their own spatial data to the DED, include the DED within their own (ESRI based) portals and hubs, and the ability to access the data behind the DED for use in their own applications. Further findings from engagements with stakeholders indicated that concerns over data accuracy and currency exist. As this finding largely relates to AEIP data, it reemphasises the need for stakeholders to be made aware of AEIP, its data and capabilities.

Utilisation

Since its launch in 2018 usage of the AEIP WMA has been steadily increasing month on month. Most uses come from state-based agencies using Application Program Interface (API) keys which allow AEIP information to be integrated into their applications. Usage peaks during both short-term events (Tropical Cyclone Seroja, 2021) and medium-term events (Black Summer), where the service has proven reliable and stable. Usage outside of events is primarily for preparedness and planning purposes.

In May of 2021, the federal government announced the Australian Climate Service (ACS), a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology, the CSIRO, ABS and Geoscience Australia to help better anticipate, manage and adapt to climate impacts now and in the future. NEXIS and the AEIP have been identified as important components of the ACS and the next steps for the AEIP will be aimed at integrating revised data into all AEIP services; WMA, DED and GA{\textquoteright}s data download services.

Providing DED users the ability to add their own data into the mapping pane of the DED is also an important next step as this would provide a richer user experience and increase the capability of the DED as a situational awareness tool during disasters.

Positioning the AEIP in the landscape of emergency management tools and products is an on-going task. Investigating options to integrate the WMA and DED into a single user-experience that can be accessed from the same application, preferably via on online hub or portal, is seen as an important step in marketing and maintaining the longevity of the AEIP in the emergency management sector.

The project team had mixed responses surrounding the engagement of AEIP stakeholders. Qualitative means of engagement gave a higher response rate with more actionable feedback. Engagements through quantitative methods, such as the online survey proved less effective, with 13 responses from a potential 700-person audience. Many or the respondents are members of the Emergency Management Spatial Information Network (EMSINA) or work in state emergency services {\textendash} primarily agencies that already use AEIP products and understand the value it adds to their business or operational needs.

A key finding amongst stakeholders was that the AEIP data is not used uniformly; the range of uses include planning purposes, at-a-glance information during hazard events, comparative analysis, integration into other products/documents, estimates, and recovery and planning. Consistent across many of the stakeholders was the predilection to use on the ground information relayed from first responders over AEIP data, and that Emergency Service Agencies (ESA) are also hesitant in using AEIP data as they preferred, and were more familiar with, data within their own and often-bespoke platforms.

Research findings also suggest that a significant barrier to ESAs using AEIP services is lack of awareness of the product, rather than the product not being fit for purpose. Other findings from stakeholders surrounding the WMA and Exposure Report are that health-related data would be a worthwhile inclusion (such as the number of beds in hospitals, rooms in respite centres, the number of general practitioners, chemists, and other medical related information). This largely a response to the need for infrastructure information in relation to COVID-19.

Research findings showed that ESAs primarily view the DED as a situational awareness tool for use in situation and planning rooms. As a result, stakeholders value the ability to add their own spatial data to the DED, include the DED within their own (ESRI based) portals and hubs, and the ability to access the data behind the DED for use in their own applications. Further findings from engagements with stakeholders indicated that concerns over data accuracy and currency exist. As this finding largely relates to AEIP data, it reemphasises the need for stakeholders to be made aware of AEIP, its data and capabilities.

}, keywords = {AEIP, enhancement, exposure, Natural hazards, utilisation}, issn = {682}, author = {Con Charalambou and Mark Dunford and Jake Bradley} } @article {bnh-7898, title = {Building inclusive partnerships with culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities}, number = {652}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The purpose of this document is to provide basic guidance for emergency services practitioners to support the building of respectful and inclusive partnerships with culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities. This document focuses on general guidance that applies when working with all CALD communities. However, as each community has its own context and character, it is important to be mindful of the need to adapt practice to work with each community{\textquoteright}s specific needs.

This document draws from the general literature, and the following reports from the BNHCRC project {\textquoteleft}Diversity and inclusion building strength and capability{\textquoteright}:

}, keywords = {CALD, communities, culture, diversity, inclusive, linguistics, partnerships}, issn = {652}, author = {Daniel Ooi and Celeste Young} } @article {bnh-8136, title = {Capability Maturity Assessment facilitators guide}, number = {681}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Catastrophic events pose unique challenges and are inevitable. Previous reviews have highlighted gaps in Australia{\textquoteright}s preparedness for catastrophic disasters. Australia has no recent experience of a catastrophe that has truly overwhelmed our society.

An essential component of planning for severe-to-catastrophic disasters is to develop an understanding of capability maturity to deliver the desired effect. Knowledge of capability gaps can then be used to enhance planning and identify alternate sources of capability.

The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements stated:

Jurisdictional approaches to capacity and capability development have served fire and emergency services well in the past. However, climate and demographic changes are likely to increase the demand on fire and emergency services. The ability of individual jurisdictions to meet this demand at peak times is likely to become increasingly difficult, prompting a need for increased resource sharing. There is a need to consider capabilities nationally, and for a more consistent and connected approach to capability planning across jurisdictions.

The Australian Disaster Preparedness Framework outlines a direction to improve understanding of national capability in the context of severe-to-catastrophic disasters.

Purpose

This guide provides instructions on how to conduct a first-pass capability maturity assessment for a jurisdiction to identify capability gaps and development priorities.

Audience

This guide is directed towards those who may manage or participate in the capability maturity assessment process.

}, keywords = {assessment, Capability, Emergency management, guide, maturity, Policy, Preparedness, tool}, issn = {681}, author = {Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-8124, title = {A characterisation of synoptic weather features often associated with extreme events in southeast Australia: Stage 1 {\textendash} common features of recent events}, number = {679}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Negatively tilted upper-tropospheric troughs are a synoptic weather pattern that have been associated with the development of thunderstorms and severe weather, including extreme fire weather and tornadoes. While various case studies and some preliminary climatological analysis have been conducted in the past, a thorough investigation of the development of these synoptic features during extreme weather events has not yet been done in Australia or elsewhere. This study aimed to identify how often negatively tilted troughs occur and how often they are associated with extreme storms and fire weather.

The objectives of the project were to:

The major components of the project were:

Review of previously documented cases

January 2003 Canberra fires

July 2014 Perth tornadoes

Climatology

While modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are increasingly capable of resolving the surface weather parameters associated with severe weather events, there are known deficiencies. An example of this is the over-estimation of low winds and under-estimation of high winds common to numerous models. Better understanding of the role of features such as NTT in generating surface weather helps interpretation and refinement of the NWP output, particularly for users of weather data such as emergency services agencies.

Furthermore, as products from NWP such as sub-seasonal to seasonal outlooks become more refined, there is value in recognising the occurrence of potential impacts of NTT that may be resolved at the synoptic or sub-synoptic scale in such model configurations even if the potential severity of the weather parameters are note explicitly resolved. For example, if a sub-seasonal to seasonal model ensemble shows a high probability of a NTT occurrence in a particular region a certain number of weeks in advance, that is useful information for planning and preparedness for emergency services managers.

Thus, this sort of synoptic climatological study in combination with detailed analyses of particular events continues to be of great relevance to natural hazard prediction and management.

Future work

}, keywords = {exterme events, features, Fire, southeast Australia, synoptic, tornado, weather}, issn = {679}, author = {Love, P. and Paul Fox-Hughes and Remenyi, T. and Nick Earl and Dean Rollins and Gabi Mocatta and Rebecca Harris} } @article {bnh-8109, title = {Community organisation involvement in disaster management}, number = {678}, year = {2021}, month = {06/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Severe to catastrophic disasters pose the potential to overwhelm traditional emergency management approaches, necessitating the adoption of a whole- of-community approach.

A key component of the whole-of-community approach is building collaborative partnerships between communities, government agencies, community organisations and businesses across the phases of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery to engage their full capacity.

To date there has been little research examining the role of Australian community organisations in disaster management although many organisations provide assistance. This research focuses specifically on the role and involvement of community organisations in disaster management.

Pertinent findings of the research were:

Recommendations

The following recommendations are made for consideration to improve the utilisation of capabilities offered by community organisations in disaster management.

  1. Australian disaster management doctrine should be revised to embrace a whole-of-community approach to disaster management.
  2. The role of community organisations including peak bodies should be clearly defined in relevant emergency plans.
  3. Community organisations should be involved in government-led disaster planning and exercises, including involvement in relevant emergency management committees.
  4. Local councils should form community resilience committees to promote collaboration and joint planning between government, community organisations and local businesses. These committees could be sub- committees of relevant emergency management committees.
  5. Government emergency management organisations should collectively work with community organisations to develop an understanding of community networks and community organisation capabilities.
  6. Government funding bodies should enable funding flexibility to allow community organisations to integrate disaster management initiatives into their core business activities.
  7. Specific disaster management grants should be targeted to community organisations to assist with maturing of disaster management capabilities and engagement with communities.
  8. Funding arrangements should enable collaboration between different community organisations, businesses and government.
  9. Community organisation peak bodies should take an active role in building the disaster management capabilities of their members.
  10. Emergency management organisations should work with community organisation peak bodies to develop a training strategy to upskill the staff and volunteers of community organisations in relevant disaster management roles. This could include a toolkit for community organisations to provide guidance on roles and better practice.
  11. Peak bodies and emergency management organisations should work with universities and training providers to incorporate emergency management content in relevant degree and training programs.
  12. Community organisations should work to develop business resilience plans. These can be supported by relevant toolkits tailored to community organisations.
  13. States and Territories should include community organisations within capability maturity assessments.
  14. The roles performed by community organisations in disaster management should be continually evaluated to ensure robust measurement of the value provided by community organisations.
  15. State and Territories should implement initiatives to raise the awareness of the role of community organisations in disaster management. These could include: integration of the role of community organisations within emergency management training, inclusion of community organisations in policy development and emergency management forums, specific communications outlining the role and value of including community organisations in disaster management, senior leadership involvement as champions.
  16. Community recovery programs should include the provision of mental health and wellbeing support to members of community organisations.
}, keywords = {community, disaster, involvement, management, organisations}, issn = {678}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Steve George} } @article {bnh-8194, title = {Community-led recovery - Black Summer final report}, number = {702}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Community-led approaches to disaster recovery are regarded as the optimal approach to sustainable disaster recovery, fostering self-reliance and self-determination within affected communities (Dibley, Mitchell, Ireton, Gordon, \& Goron, 2019; Olshansky, 2005). However, as noted by Dibley et al. (2019), {\textquotedblleft}[w]hat is less clear in the literature is how government might best foster and enable community-led recovery while maintaining their role and responsibilities in coordination after a disaster,{\textquotedblright} (p. 3, emphasis in original).

The objective of this research was to address this gap by examining ways in which governments can better support and enable communities to lead their own recovery after bushfire disaster events. Specifically, the following research questions were explored:

  1. How can government best support community-led deliberative decision-making processes in post-disaster bushfire recovery?
  2. How can government best leverage existing and emerging community organisations, structures, and networks in post-disaster bushfire recovery?

This project developed a set of resources to broaden the knowledge base and disseminate best practice, both within and beyond end-user organisations. Research findings from this project expand our knowledge on how community structures may modify the decision-making function of community recovery bodies (i.e., Community Recovery Committees), and shape residents{\textquoteright} perceptions of community recovery. These resources include:

These resources are intended to be utilised by community engagement staff, other state and local government staff, CRC members, and not-for-profit staff who are involved in recovery. In all, the resources developed as part of this study are intended to be useful beyond the current cohort of CRCs operating in the wake of the 2019/20 bushfire season, which formed the basis of this research analysis. We hope that these efforts will form the basis for recovery progress monitoring, benchmarking, and support activities within disaster-affected communities and risk areas. However, it is a complex field, and so a proposed agenda is also provided for next steps in research and applications.

}, keywords = {communications, community, recovery}, issn = {702}, author = {Lisa Gibbs and Collin Gallagher and Kate Brady and Claire Leppold and Greg Ireton and Andrew Haywood and Yvette Clarke and Stewart Davies and Fyowna Norton and Vaughn Brandenburg} } @article {bnh-8215, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk {\textendash} Melbourne case study}, number = {707}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Earthquake hazard was not fully recognised in Australian building design until the mid-1990{\textquoteright}s. This oversight has resulted in a legacy of vulnerable buildings that can be readily damaged in moderate to severe Australian earthquakes. In particular, older unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings built with the architectural styles, materials and construction details used in the United Kingdom are particularly vulnerable. Australian earthquakes have highlighted the vulnerability of this building type. These events include the Adelaide Earthquake of 1954, the Meckering Earthquake of 1968, the Newcastle Earthquake of 1989 and the Kalgoorlie Earthquake of 2010, all of which damaged pre WWII masonry buildings in particular.\  Buildings of this style are present in the older centres of our major cities, and Melbourne has a very significant number of these. As shown in this research, in number nearly half of the buildings in the Melbourne central business district are of this type of construction. The damage to these buildings can greatly add to human casualties as a result of falling masonry elements. Further, the severity of damage and losses can impede the recovery of cities like Melbourne physically, economically and socially. Finally, many of these buildings have heritage value to communities that residents may want preserved.

This document reports on the final deliverable for Project A9 Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (CRC). It builds on the masonry component research of the University of Adelaide in this project and is a milestone for Geoscience Australia. The work follows the utilisation project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Earthquake Mitigation of WA Regional Towns: York Case Study{\textquotedblright}, that was jointly delivered by GA and the University of Adelaide. The utilisation project developed original condition and mitigated vulnerability models for six URM building types. In this project, these outcomes have been applied to the much larger Melbourne CBD exposure.

The project had the following key components:

The work required the development of the three fundamental risk elements of earthquake hazard, community exposure and building vulnerability. It also entailed the assessment of the economic loss measures associated with human injury, contents losses, rental income, commercial property leasing, and business activity. Additionally, it included the application of the semi-intangible value placed on human life to society. Each of these are described below.

Earthquake hazard

This study has drawn upon the latest understanding of the Melbourne region earthquake hazard by utilising the recently released National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA 2018) (Allen et al, 2018a). The bedrock hazard from this assessment shows Melbourne to have a {\textquotedblleft}low{\textquotedblright} earthquake hazard by global standards but significant by Australian standards. The hazard is further amplified by the presence of the sediments deposited by the Yarra River.\  These soil effects increase the hazard, particularly those in the study region south of the Yarra River. The effects of soil amplification can double the severity of shaking in some areas.

Community exposure

The definition of the building assets in the study region utilised several sources. The available state government building data integrated into the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) was accessed and supplemented by an engineering survey database developed and maintained by GA for the Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation. This was further refined by a desktop review of all masonry buildings utilising available street level imagery. In total there were 1,543 buildings in the study region, and 687 of these were identified as URM.

The assessment of human activity was achieved by utilising research undertaken outside of this project. This research utilised a population model developed by downscaling a destination zone based telecommunication model with pedestrian counts, the Melbourne traffic control systems movement counts, and building floor area information. Using this work it was possible to define the local human exposure at the time of the scenario event, particularly those in damaged buildings and those potentially exposed to falling masonry during a rapid onset earthquake event.

Building vulnerability

The building vulnerability assessment work for the URM building stock was a direct utilisation of the six vulnerability types identified in the earlier York WA mitigation study. This included the vulnerability in present condition, and that with mitigation measures applied to the vulnerable elements. To complete the context, the vulnerability of other building types was attributed using a suite of models developed through an adaptation of US HAZUS models, reference to \ heuristically developed models from a GA facilitated UN workshop (Maqsood et al, 2014), and through heuristic adjustments by the project team. This vulnerability of non-URM buildings remained a constant in the study as mitigation of these buildings was not considered.

Economics of cost assessment

The economic assessment considered a broad range of measures. These ranged from the direct costs to property owner, building occupiers, and businesses through to health care costs and the partially intangible value placed on the loss of a human life. The aim was to provide scalable information on benefits versus cost to a range of decision makers and investors. Importantly, the measures where not comprehensive and so represent a lower bound to the actual avoided impacts mitigation achieves. For example, the cost of emergency response, clean-up and community recovery support were not considered. Neither was a macro-economic perspective developed to capture non-impacted businesses that would benefit from a stimulus in business activity such as in the construction industry, the supply of home appliances, soft furnishings and drapery. Significantly, the value of avoided heritage building loss was considered through the utilisation of metrics developed by a UWA led CRC project.

Scenario impacts and risks

The study considered a single rare earthquake scenario having an annual likelihood of 1/5,000 of causing the targeted bedrock shaking severity beneath the Melbourne CBD, or greater. This likelihoods corresponds with a 1\%, chance of this shaking severity being exceeded in the next 50 years. For the event the injuries and other losses within the scope of this study were assessed using the human exposure corresponding with 11:00am of Monday through to Thursday. The losses ranged from $737m for building damage only, through to $1.66b for the other monetary costs considered.\  The value of human life lost increased this to $3.97b. Where 25\% of the masonry building stock was retrofitted, over 30 years, these losses reduced by approximately 16\%.

The reduction in injuries if this event occurred in 30 years time was also evaluated. Serious injuries reduced by 16 and deaths by 98 persons. Urban Search and Rescue logistics would also reduce correspondingly.

In a similar manner, the long term financial risk of the Melbourne CBD study region was evaluated for building damage. It was presented as the average annualised loss for the URM building stock and for the entire study region buildings. It was also forecast 30 years into the future and the financial risk reduced by 38\% for the URM building stock and by 10\% across the entire study region buildings.

Discussion and outcomes

Earthquakes occur frequently in Australia with over 100 events greater than magnitude 3.0 (ML) recorded within the Australian continent every year by Geoscience Australia. The smaller and more frequent events are typically non-damaging, whereas the less frequent larger events can be very damaging when they occur close to a community. This plays out in the economics of strengthening older structures where the benefits of avoided building damage and contents losses through retrofit for earthquake are not a full offset for the significant costs.\  Other avoided costs associated with business losses, lost wages, health care costs, and the value placed on human life, do increase the sum significantly but are not realised by the property owner. While not all avoided costs were considered, this project indicates that the justification for retrofit based solely on a financial investment may be difficult to demonstrate for URM buildings in Melbourne.

As was also illustrated by the earlier York study, there are other considerations for the retrofit of URM buildings in the Melbourne CBD and in other older business districts in the city. If a rare earthquake occurred locally during a period of high public exposure there would be considerable loss of life. This research has shown that if a 5,000 year Return Period (RP) event (5.5 Mw) occurring on a business day approximately 100 people would die with close parallels to the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake outcome for masonry structures (42 fatalities). This may point to cheaper levels of retrofit with the objective of tying back elements that could cause casualties, rather than having the aim of avoiding economic loss.

Further, following a rare, but credible, earthquake high value heritage buildings would be lost. The research has shown that the willingness to pay by just the residents of the City of Melbourne LGA adds a notional 10\% of the total benefits of the mitigation program.

SUMMARY

The project has applied a range of retrofit measures for a suite of six URM building types developed as part of Project A9 to a very large population of URM building found in the Melbourne CBD. These measures have been demonstrated to reduce the physical vulnerability of each building. The project has also translated this vulnerability change into broader metrics that form an evidence base to inform decisions to retrofit.

The project has also demonstrated the benefit of retrofit through a virtual retrofit of a major city CBD. These benefits include reduced post event logistics for emergency management and the local government, reducing financial losses to building owners, businesses, and reducing injuries and fatalities. It has also demonstrated that retrofit reduces the long term financial cost of earthquake hazard, thereby making risk transfer through insurance uptake more affordable. Finally, it has demonstrated how valuable heritage structures can be progressively preserved for the future by protecting them from future credible earthquakes.

}, keywords = {buildings, earthquake, Melbourne, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {707}, author = {Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner and Jaroslav Vaculik and Valdis Juskevics and Mark Edwards and Michael Griffith and Itismita Mohanty and Stuart Butt and Neil Corby and Trevor Allen and Robert Hewison} } @article {bnh-7952, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk - final project report}, number = {657}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This final report contains a summary of the research undertaken by the research team from four partner institutions towards the development of an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the seismic risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian buildings subject to earthquakes.\  Without this evidence base, it is impossible to make cost-effective and economically justifiable decisions by building owners and government officials on all matters concerning seismic strengthening of existing and design of new buildings.\  While the focus of this project is on buildings, many of the project outputs will also be relevant for other Australian infrastructure such as bridges, roads and ports, while at the same time complementing other {\textquoteleft}Natural Hazards{\textquoteright} CRC project proposals for severe wind and flood.\ 

In order to achieve the overall project aim, work was undertaken on three complementary fronts to:

  1. Understand the seismic vulnerabilities of existing unreinforced masonry (URM) and limited ductile reinforced concrete (LDRC) buildings and methods to address them through seismic retrofit;
  2. Risk assessment of the building stock through development of an economic loss model with trial evaluations for a regional town (York, WA) and a metropolitan area (Melbourne); and
  3. Advance an end-user focused research utilisation project in the area of community risk reduction. This is done through an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study for the historic town of York in Western Australia.

The first of the above components was researched in the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne, and Swinburne. This work included investigations of existing building seismic capacities and development of building specific retrofit techniques. The second area was studied by Geoscience Australia and the work includes estimating direct and indirect losses associated with building damage and benefits from seismic retrofit.\  The delivery date for the Melbourne CBD trial evaluation was delayed due to Covid-19 impacts but the revised delivery date of March 2021 has been agreed by the CRC. The last component was conducted utilizing the research findings in the two other areas in collaboration with the Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services, York Shire Council and its residents.

Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, recommendations are made for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base being developed by this CRC project team.

As a consequence, the project has been extremely successful with several end-users implementing the research outputs.\  York Shire Council has embarked on seismic retrofit of up to three buildings in the Shire as demonstrations to other building owners of the cost-effectiveness as well as helping to develop the local expertise amongst the building profession to implement these simple seismic strengthening techniques.\  The project has also resulted in a follow-on project in Western Australia to expand the building typologies from York to include three additional typologies that are common in the rest of WA.\  The retrofit strategies for all nine typologies will be made publically available through web sites.

}, keywords = {buildings, cost-effective, earthquake, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {657}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-8130, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings {\textendash} final project report}, number = {691}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations made during the 2011 and 2013 floods in Australia, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. Considerable costs were sustained by all levels of government and property owners to effect damage repair and enable community recovery.

A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. While the vulnerability and associated flood risk for newer construction is being addressed (moderated) by new standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock remains. This vulnerability contributes disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (CRC) project entitled Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings addresses this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains. The project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the flood risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian houses and complements parallel CRC projects for earthquake and severe wind.

The project has developed a building classification schema to categorise Australian residential buildings into a range of typical storey types. Mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally have been reviewed. A floodproofing matrix has been developed to assess appropriate strategies for the selected storey types. All appropriate strategies have been costed for the selected storey types through the engagement of quantity surveying specialists. Vulnerability curves have been developed featuring reduced losses achieved through appropriate mitigation strategies for the five selected storey types.

Furthermore, selected building materials/systems have been tested to ascertain their resilience to floodwater exposure. These tests were aimed at addressing knowledge gaps in the areas of strength and durability of building materials during immersion.

A research utilisation project with NFRAG, AIDR and FMA as key stakeholders commenced in 2018. The project has developed generalised vulnerability functions for use by floodplain managers who may not have detailed exposure information.

In concluding the project, cost benefit analyses of mitigation options were conducted at three levels of resolution. These have added to cost versus benefit work already completed by the project team for Launceston as a utilisation project. The results are an evidence base to inform decision making by government and property owners on the mitigation of flood risk by providing information on the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies.

This report describes the research methods, project activities, outcomes and their potential for utilisation.

}, keywords = {buildings, Flood, mitigation, strategy}, issn = {691}, author = {Dale, K and Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-7900, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling {\textendash} final project report}, number = {650}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project aims to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

Project deliverables include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events as publications; installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI); and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past four years has delivered across several activities:

The project has demonstrably achieved the objective of building and sharing national capability in fire research and has provided fire and meteorology expertise during high impact events in support of end-users inside their operational centers.\  That outcome is not a specific project deliverable and is to some degree intangible, so not as easily measured as outcomes such as publications.\  However, it successfully realises the CRC objective of building collaborations and trusted partnerships and strengthening national capability. The operational support capability is recognised and valued across fire and land management agencies and in the Bureau.

To complete the project we will finalise publication of the draft papers to ensure that our key findings are documented in the scientific literature; this will expand the international body of knowledge from coupled modelling studies.\ 

We are pleased to bring the project to completion and are gratified that along the way we have shared a valuable legacy of knowledge on fire and atmosphere interactions.\  We have also delivered an important capability in ACCESS-Fire that can provide ongoing benefit to the field of meteorology and fire prediction and to the Australian community into the future.

In the coming months we will continue our conversations with partners and end-users to establish plans for future use and development of ACCESS-Fire as the BNHCRC transitions to the new Disaster Resilience Research Institute.\ \  ACCESS-Fire is an important research tool and has the potential to be a critical operational tool. It will assist in informing fire management decisions as we face increasingly hazardous scenarios in a changing climate.

}, keywords = {coupled, fire-atmosphere, modelling}, issn = {650}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye and Jesse Greenslade} } @article {bnh-8253, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere simulations of five Black Summer fires using the ACCESS-Fire model - Black Summer final report}, number = {705}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

This research builds on previous work completed during the Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling ACCESS-Fire project, by conducting case studies of five major bushfires that occurred across Australia during the 2019-20 summer. The previous work provided valuable insights into the drivers of periods of extreme fire behaviour associated with the Waroona fire in WA, and the Sir Ivan fire in NSW.

The main objectives of this project are: to investigate the meteorological drivers of extreme fire behaviour at five further fire events; to further test the reliability and stability of the model in different environments across Australia; and to support and share learnings from the events of the 2019-20 summer with partner agencies.

The fire events nominated by state jurisdictions for investigation were: Badja Forest (New South Wales), Stanthorpe (Queensland), Green Valley Talmalmo/Corryong\ (NSW/Victoria), Kangaroo Island (South Australia); and Yanchep (Western Australia).

The case studies show that the local context for each fire is important. Each of the fires posed significant challenges in different ways. In the heavily forested areas of NSW and Victoria, the sheer size, intensity, and duration of the fires were distinctive. At other fires, the proximity of local communities and infrastructure posed serious challenges. All fires were active in the overnight period when conventional fire danger indices typically suggest a decrease in fire activity.

The marine boundary layer, local coastal effects and topography combined to generate complex wind flows that influenced the progression of the Kangaroo Island fire. We also studied the way in which the sea breeze circulation interacted with the Yanchep fire, and examined the impact of a prescribed burn on the rate and direction of spread of the Stanthorpe fire under extreme fire weather conditions.

This project has explored gaps in knowledge and understanding of the processes at play during these unusual events by using the Bureau{\textquoteright}s ACCESS-Fire model to examine the local three-dimensional interactions between the fires and the atmosphere. The learnings from this project may be applied to shape future fire weather products and services.

Method

Based on discussions with our partners in fire agencies, together with documents (including photographs and video) and information on fire spread, fuel types and fuel moisture and atypical fire behaviour, we have run a series of simulations and prepared case study chapters for each of the five fires.

The ACCESS-Fire model was initialised using information provided by fire agencies on ignition location or fire line perimeter and fuel type and availability. Several simulations were conducted for each of the fires, with a focus on different time periods of interest and using updated fire polygon boundaries based on available line scan imagery.

The model configuration does not permit the simulations to account for suppression activities by fire agencies, changes in fuel types on the urban interface, or the impact of roads or other fire breaks in reducing the rate of spread of the fire. Another limitation is that the simulations are a single realisation, when in reality, consideration of forecast uncertainty (for example through running an ensemble scheme) would capture a range of potential outcomes.\ 

Learnings from the case studies reinforce and refine some previous learnings from historical fire events and uncover some new insights into the processes driving the periods of unusual fire behaviour that were observed during the 2019/20 season.

Key findings

The case study analyses have provided valuable insights into meteorological aspects of observed extreme fire behaviour during the 2019/20 summer. Key findings for each of the five case studies are included in the individual chapters for each fire and a synthesis is provided here.\ 

The ACCESS-Fire simulations run at 300 m spatial resolution show that some of the most dangerous effects of the fires, in particular damaging and destructive winds, are fire driven and therefore very localised at a much finer scale than current fire weather products.

The depth, elevation and structure of low-level jets over topography was a critical driver of overnight fire activity.\  Given that these jets are driven by larger scale processes (typically synoptic scale), there is an opportunity to develop new tools based on numerical weather prediction output that highlight the location and intensity of these features. Such tools would provide additional information for meteorologists and FBANs on the strength and height of representative winds for input to two-dimensional fire spread models and could be used to alert fire managers to the risk of atypical fire spread in the overnight period.

A key theme that emerged from the case studies and discussions with stakeholders was the consistent occurrence of heatwaves and their influence on boundary layer structure overnight and on inhibiting fuel moisture recovery during the overnight period. Further research quantifying the effects of overnight heatwaves is required to appropriately plan for the increased risk to communities and fire crews in a changing climate, as the frequency of elevated overnight temperatures has increased over the last few decades and is projected to increase further (along with other factors influencing fire activity).\ \ 

Deep moist pyroconvection producing pyrocumulus (pyroCu) or pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds was a feature of the 2019-20 fire season and a record number of sustained outbreaks of pyroCbs occurred.\  However, the five fires examined here were not all associated with pyroCb, highlighting that it is not the sole weather phenomenon associated with extreme fire behaviour. In particular, no lightning was detected within the Green Valley Talmalmo fire (that subsequently became the Corryong fire when it burned into Victoria) as it burned through Green Valley, which shows that dangerous tornado-strength fire-generated winds can occur without pyroCb.

The simulations produced fire-generated extreme winds associated with both rotation and straight-line flow, which present a serious hazard. ACCESS-Fire simulated rotating winds in the updraft of the Green Valley Talmalmo/Corryong fire. More work is required to understand the mechanisms for these, they are likely related to the high intensity of the fire, coupled with topographic influences.

Spot fires were an important component in the observed rate of spread, particularly in the forest fires overnight. The extremely dry, drought-affected fuel beds meant that the ignition efficiency of spot fires was enhanced compared to an average season. Inclusion of a spotting parameterisation in ACCESS-Fire would accelerate the forwards fire spread and improve validation of the simulated fire perimeters.\ 

Coastal processes were evident in the simulations of the Kangaroo Island and Yanchep fires. Localised wind effects in the simulations showed interactions between the fire and maritime airmass including sea breeze circulations can modify the updrafts associated with the fire as well as produce rapid transitions in fire intensity around a fire perimeter. Cooler moister air associated with a maritime airmass may not necessarily reduce fire intensity, depending on its depth and penetration inland.

Utilisation - where to from here?

The high level of engagement in this work from a range of stakeholders has demonstrated the value of this research and the appetite for operational application.\ 

The learnings from this work should be incorporated into training packages tailored for fire meteorologists and FBANs that describe characteristics of the local meteorological environment favourable for extreme fire behaviour. Such training will complement other current research and training on fire behaviour aspects such as spotting and potential for pyroCb.

This work, which has been conducted in close collaboration with partners in fire agencies, has demonstrated that a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms driving fire behaviour requires a multidisciplinary approach. Similarly, the successful application of fire behaviour and meteorology knowledge in operations requires locally connected specialised expertise, combined with tailored modelling tools to inform objective, evidence-based decisions.

The insights gathered from these five case studies have further demonstrated the value of this high resolution coupled modelling approach. In order to progress ACCESS-Fire to an effective operational tool, more robust testing of the model is required, in addition to the more subjective assessments that have been made through the case study work. This would include technical testing, additional sensitivity testing and routine verification.

This project has demonstrated that the Bureau{\textquoteright}s technology and simulation capability, scientific expertise and established relationships with fire agencies can meet the Australian community{\textquoteright}s need to understand the drivers of fire behaviour during the 2019-20 fire season. In doing so, we have further developed and validated our modelling systems and made progress towards their future operational use.

}, keywords = {ACCESS-Fire, black summer, coupled, fire-atmosphere, simulations}, issn = {705}, author = {Mika Peace and Barry Hanstrum and Jesse Greenslade and Dragana Zovko-Rajak and Abhik Santra and Jeffrey Kepert and Paul Fox-Hughes and Harvey Ye and Tasfia Shermin and Jeffrey Jones} } @article {bnh-8217, title = {Cultural burning in southern Australia}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There is so much interest in cultural burning {\textendash} the landscape burns practised by Aboriginal people {\textendash} and its relevance to southern Australia{\textquoteright}s bushfire risk, but what is cultural burning? The people to learn from are the First Nations, Traditional Owners and Custodians of Country. Indeed, to really understand requires being part of a cultural burn on Country.

This edited report, as well as the posters available separately online, bring together and uniquely present six diverse personal cultural burning experiences from across southern Australia. These experiences both diverge and align as Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} paths, perspectives and priorities have always diverged and aligned.

Four of the contributions centre on burning one{\textquoteright}s own Country in southern Australia, as shared by Minung/Gnudju kayang (wise woman) Carol Pettersen of the Noongar Nation, Gilgar Gunditj Elder Eileen Alberts of the Gunditjmara Nation, Palawa man Jason Andrew Smith and Ngunnawal murringe (man) Adrian Brown. These experiences range from growing up burning with family and continuing to be involved today, to reigniting cultural burns on lands where it has too long been absent. We also have two stories about roles in university and government as shared by Bundjalung and Wonnarua woman Vanessa Cavanagh\ and Kaytej Elder Wayne ampetyane Davis. They describe how their roles involve learning from and supporting the First Nations, Traditional Owners and Custodians of Country, and the difference when they themselves are involved in burns on their own Country.

This difference is no minor matter: it marks the unique authority and connections held between specific people and places. More than an inter-generational form of land management, cultural burning involves matters of respect, obligation and responsibility with ancestral lands, waters, skies and everything in between. These burns are a cultural practice undertaken by Aboriginal people in relation to Country and kin, connecting and investing in their wellbeing and self-determination, and Australia{\textquoteright}s fire regime.

This authority and connection with Country is the first of four matters that inform the creation of this report. The second matter is the assumption by some people in society that cultural burning is to be imported from northern Australia into southern Australia. This fails to understand that cultural burning only occurs in relation to Country and the people of Country. Further, the cultural burning leaders show how this specific cultural practice has been passed down by families and nation groups to present times in places that are often described as settled and urban. At the same time, knowledge has always been shared by Aboriginal people across the continent, and this is not de-valued.

Third, Aboriginal women have long been marginalised from land management conversations with government and university. In recognition, women come first in this report. As Aunty Carol, Vanessa and Aunty Eileen share, cultural burning practices have intricate and interwoven roles for men and women. We look forward to hearing more such voices as cultural burning becomes better known.

Fourth, cultural burning is about\ healing relationships between Aboriginal\ people and their Country. There has been,\ and continues to be, much physical and other violence directed towards Country and people\ of Country. With climate change, there are even more challenges in this work and even more care needs to be taken. Supporting the healing of these relationships is an important responsibility for non-Indigenous people.

These six individual and shared cultural burning experiences bring to life these four matters and more. You will also see that ten Cultural Burning Principles have been developed. Again, this is to help articulate some of the core matters at hand, which Aboriginal leaders have been raising for generations. These voices can be hard to hear when they are the minority in the room, and so different from the dominant culture of governments and universities.

We are particularly concerned that the groundswell of support for Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} fire management expertise, during and after the catastrophic Black Summer (2019-2020), does not address fundamental misunderstandings about Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} fire management practices. By not addressing these misunderstandings, existing problems become repeated in the new work that is being established around cultural burning.

We hope this report\ and the posters\ will help address this by\ providing the opportunity to see\ a different viewpoint, to stand in\ someone else{\textquoteright}s shoes. This is critical
in developing more respectful\ relationships between Indigenous\ people and non-Indigenous people.\ We are all living together on Country.

Whilst the report and posters cannot compare to the experience of being at a cultural burn, they share realities that are little known in places where important decisions are being made {\textendash} such as the offices of bushfire inquiries, the boardrooms of government agencies, the risk-reduction burns of fire practitioners and the professional practices of university researchers.

We note that cultural burning is a new term to describe burns that in earlier times never needed such a label.

And now, over to our six cultural burning leaders.

}, keywords = {cultural burning, culture, indigenous, southern Australia}, isbn = {978-0-6452058-1-7}, issn = {687}, author = {Jessica Weir and Dean Freeman and Bhiamie Williamson} } @article {bnh-8202, title = {Cultural land management in southeastern Australia - Black Summer final report}, number = {704}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Cultural land management research in southeast Australia project aimed to develop foundations for Indigenous-led and co-designed research programs to support cultural land management into the future. The project explored how to empower and enable Indigenous-led cultural fire and land management practices to improve landscape management and community resilience in southeast Australia.

To these ends, the project team convened a Project Steering Group (PSG) of cultural land management experts and advisors currently engaged in cultural fire management operations or research in New South Wales and Victoria. It also convened a Government Advisory Group and a Research Advisory Group to assist with advice where appropriate. As well as meetings of these Groups, the other key project activity was the conducting of several workshops in select sites to progress regional conversations regarding the potential for Indigenous-led cultural fire and land management research.

Overall, on the basis of these activities, this project concludes that research projects and institutes relating to land and fire management need to proceed from core understandings that:

Further, this project report makes 10 recommendations for action by Natural Hazards Research Australia and research partners to support cultural land management and Indigenous-led and co-designed research programs into the future:

  1. Formal acknowledgement by research organisations of the equivalent value of Indigenous knowledge, practice, and science to Western understandings/knowledge systems. Respect and Recognition of knowledge-holders and cultural land management practice
  2. Recognise the holistic and highly diverse context of Indigenous ways of being and Caring for Country
  3. Make clear commitments to supporting Indigenous people to get on Country and engage in cultural stewardship practices to build the resilience of Country and people\ 
  4. Establish an Indigenous Research Strategy with dedicated research streams/project areas for cultural stewardship research within Natural Hazards Research Australia{\textquoteright}s research agenda that supports Indigenous-led research pathways.
  5. Create avenues to recognise Traditional Owners as research partners/end-users of research funded by Natural Hazards Research Australia
  6. Include Indigenous voice and representation in governance structures of institutions and land management agencies
  7. Establish meaningful and ongoing pathways for Traditional Owner inclusion and consultation, to ensure research agendas and processes reflect Traditional Owner aspirations and priorities
  8. Development of a framework of broad research principles/protocols and processes to guide more ethical and collaborative cultural land management research
  9. Embed multiple aspects of capacity building into research frameworks and processes
  10. Support opportunities for developing Indigenous governance, collaboration, and knowledge sharing

These recommendations are further explained in the Key Findings and Recommendations section below.

We propose a staged approach to utilising this project and these recommendations, to be guided by the project team and an interim Indigenous Research Committee (IRC) consisting of Project Steering Group members:

  1. present the key findings and recommendations to the Natural Hazards Research Australia executive as the basis for developing an Indigenous research strategy
  2. establish Terms of Reference for the Indigenous Research Committee (IRC)
  3. work with the Natural Hazards Research Australia to identify priority recommendations and research projects for implementation in the short, moderate, and longer terms
  4. work with the Natural Hazards Research Australia to identify the resource requirements to implement the recommendations and research projects
  5. co-develop with Indigenous partners and Natural Hazards Research Australia representatives, a cultural land and fire management research agenda and priorities.

1.\ \ \ \  Formal acknowledgement by research organisations of the equivalent value of Indigenous knowledge, practice, and science to Western understandings/knowledge systems. Respect and Recognition of knowledge-holders and cultural land management practice

2.\ \ \ \  Recognise the holistic and highly diverse context of Indigenous ways of being and Caring for Country

3.\ \ \ \  Make clear commitments to supporting Indigenous people to get on Country and engage in cultural stewardship practices to build the resilience of Country and people

4.\ \ \ \  Establish an Indigenous Research Strategy with dedicated research streams/project areas for cultural stewardship research within Natural Hazards Research Australia{\textquoteright}s research agenda that supports Indigenous-led research pathways.

5.\ \ \ \  Create avenues to recognise Traditional Owners as research partners/end-users of research funded by Natural Hazards Research Australia

6.\ \ \ \  Include Indigenous voice and representation in governance structures of institutions and land management agencies

7.\ \ \ \  Establish meaningful and ongoing pathways for Traditional Owner inclusion and consultation, to ensure research agendas and processes reflect Traditional Owner aspirations and priorities

8.\ \ \ \  Development of a framework of broad research principles/protocols and processes to guide more ethical and collaborative cultural land management research

9.\ \ \ \  Embed multiple aspects of capacity building into research frameworks and processes

10.Support opportunities for developing Indigenous governance, collaboration, and knowledge sharing

These recommendations are further explained in the Key Findings and Recommendations section below.

We propose a staged approach to utilising this project and these recommendations, to be guided by the project team and an interim Indigenous Research Committee (IRC) consisting of Project Steering Group members:

1.\ \ \ \  present the key findings and recommendations to the Natural Hazards Research Australia executive as the basis for developing an Indigenous research strategy

2.\ \ \ \  establish Terms of Reference for the Indigenous Research Committee (IRC)

3.\ \ \ \  work with the Natural Hazards Research Australia to identify priority recommendations and research projects for implementation in the short, moderate, and longer terms

4.\ \ \ \  work with the Natural Hazards Research Australia to identify the resource requirements to implement the recommendations and research projects

5.\ \ \ \  co-develop with Indigenous partners and Natural Hazards Research Australia representatives, a cultural land and fire management research agenda and priorities.

}, keywords = {Australia, cultural, indigenous, land, management, southeast}, issn = {704}, author = {Oliver Costello and Tasmin Dilworth and Katharine Haynes and Tony Jansen and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-7954, title = {Demographic effects of severe fire in montane shrublands on Tasmania{\textquoteright}s Central Plateau}, number = {658}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Australian montane sclerophyll shrubland vegetation is considered to be resilient to infrequent severe fire but this may not be the case in Tasmanian shrublands. Our research reports on the regeneration response of a Tasmanian non-coniferous woody montane shrubland following a severe fire. The 2019 Great Pine Tier fire in the Central Plateau Conservation Area was a severe crown fire that killed all above ground vegetation in the shrubland. Our field survey revealed that less than 1\% of the burnt plants were not top-killed by the fire, and only 5\% of the burnt plants were observed to be resprouting one year following the fire. Such a low resprouting rate means the resilience of the shrubland depends on seedling regeneration from aerial and soil seedbanks or colonisation from plants outside the fire ground. The low number of resprouters within the shrubland suggest that it may not be as resilient to fire as mainland Australian montane shrubland. As a consequence, our research highlights the fragility of the shrubland under a warming climate and potential increase in fire frequency.

}, keywords = {demographic, effects, Fire, montane, severe, shrublands, Tasmania}, issn = {658}, author = {Judy Foulkes and Steven Leonard and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-8015, title = {Developing effective emergency management partnerships in remote north Australian communities - final project report}, number = {670}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Natural hazards in the remote Northern Territory such as cyclones have arguably been managed as best as possible given the typically insubstantial relationships emergency management agencies have with traditional Aboriginal landowners and their wider communities. Preparation and response to the two cyclones, Lam (Feb. 19-20) and Nathan (March 22), that struck east and central Arnhem Land in 2015 are a case in point, prompting practical research into how we can strengthen existing governance arrangements in remote areas to promote and enrich such relationships. This project extends a suite of projects hosted by Charles Darwin University under the Northern Hub of the Bushfires and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, collectively addressing {\textquoteleft}building capacity in north Australian remote communities.

Under the collective theme of developing effective emergency management partnerships, the project focused on two of the several communities in Arnhem Land struck by cyclones Lam and Nathan {\textendash} Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining.\  Indigenous leadership in these communities were again struck by underlying issues effecting cultural authority, including poor consideration of community members as core players holding significant knowledge and other assets valuable to hazard preparation, response and community reconstruction. Whilst Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku residents, for example, greatly appreciated the effective response delivered by EM agencies, the events and their aftermath also brought to the surface issues of lost cultural authority, disempowerment, and disengagement within the community. They keenly sought support for practical local efforts to better understand and address the trend of marginalization and dependence on external agency management. Similarly, in Ramingining, the elders felt a sense of powerlessness and shame to be onlookers for response efforts that they wished to be active participants of.

NAILSMA (Indigenous research and service provider, co-partner in the Northern Hub of the CRC and project manager) was in a position to offer administrative, logistical, mentoring and other support to Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku{\textquoteright}s leadership. Yalu Maringithinyaraw is a local Yolngu organisation with research interests and capability that was the local host for the work.

ARPNet, an Indigenous research network of community based Aboriginal Research practitioners is hosted by RIEL at CDU. ARPNet researchers have worked together and developed an approach that emphasises putting the community first and have also adapted a set of PAR tools (the ARPNet Dilly bag) that they use. The Network trains, mentors and provides administrative support to a growing network of community-based Indigenous researchers, dedicated to relocating local research effort in local hands and improving the operation and outcomes of research for local communities and those that service them.\ \ \ \  \ 

It{\textquoteright}s well recognised that strong similarities exist amongst communities across the NT and indeed the North, but that each place is unique. In this context, the projects at Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining developed relatively independently but highlighted in their collective outcomes important messages for EM agency and others about navigating continuity and difference across Indigenous geographies in their policy making and operations.

It was broadly concluded that government and other agencies need to change the way they do business with Yolngu/Bininj by helping empower traditional owners and clan leaders and improve community engagement to produce more effective service delivery.

Concomitantly, NAILSMA, ARPNet and CDU sought to engage EM leadership across the North and in the BNHCRC community with the research developments as they unfolded in Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining, and to inform the local researchers of the perspectives and logic driving EM organization in relevant jurisdictions. This parallel effort strengthened the strategic need to come together {\textquoteleft}at the table{\textquoteright} to work through practical, fundamental change in the way agencies and communities do business {\textendash} a process anticipated as ongoing.

Recognising the resource-intensive nature of the work, connections were made with related projects to provide mutual support for project activities and partnerships.\  The overall objective of the project was to inform effective EM agency community partnership arrangements in remote communities based on enhanced understanding and empowerment of underlying community governance structures. Lessons learnt from the undertaking of this project were used to develop a {\textquoteleft}protocols framework{\textquoteright} to help inform the development of effective agency-community EM partnerships in remote community locations across northern Australia.

This research has identified a common set of core governance issues (see Findings below) and priorities needing to be acknowledged and addressed to improve implementation of emergency risk management arrangements in remote communities. This work has helped these remote communities, and hopefully others, find voice to more effectively engage in the emergency management conversation, and in partnership building at local and national levels. It has also shown that most agencies involved are open to, if not keenly interested in greater equity with communities in engagement but are uncertain and/or systemically blind to how they may initiate and progress real and effective change in remote EM. There is strong interest from the participating communities to continue their work and engage with other end-users in for example, enhanced local and regional-scale planning; the dissemination of quality, relevant and timely information; building partnership support for community level risk mitigation, disaster management and response. These projects provide a conceptual model and approach for scaling up the project of partnership building to other communities in the NT, WA and Qld, and a basis for understanding the costs and benefits involved in broadscale implementation. Project partners are seeking to progress current projects and offer their experience, skills, tools and relationships developed in these two community endeavors to other community groups seeking to improve the way they, EM and other agencies work together. Project partners believe this to be a good foundation for a regional and national framework approach for EM agency/community engagement and relationship building.

}, keywords = {communities, effective, Emergency management, north australia, partnerships, remote}, issn = {670}, author = {Sithole, B and Otto Bulmaniya Campion and Glenn James and Danny Burton and Maratja Dhamarrandji and Hmalan Hunter-Xenie} } @article {bnh-7786, title = {Developing effective emergency management partnerships in remote north Australian communities - annual report 2019-2020}, number = {637}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural hazards in the remote Northern Territory such as cyclones have arguably been managed as best as possible given the typical relationships emergency management agencies have with traditional Aboriginal landowners and their wider communities. Preparation and response to the two cyclones, Nathan and Lam, that struck east and central Arnhem Land in 2015 are a case in point. This report refers to 2 projects, conducted using NAILSMA support with Yolngu in Galiwinku and ARPNet with Bininj in Ramingining.

Most Yolngu interviewed at Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku (which was hit directly) after the cyclones comented that the emergency teams did a good job restoring services and rendering the community safe and habitable in the aftermath and that the response was fairly swift and efficient. The research undertaken by Yolngu in the months after Nathan and Lam was keenly sought because of underlying issues effecting Yolngu authority in their own community, including poor consideration of community members as core players and as assets to preparation, response and reconstruction.

The Yolngu research focused on the cyclone scenario but quickly developed into a frank discussion amongst Yolngu in the community about the status of Yolngu leadership, authority and decision-making and the processes they felt are eroding Yolngu values and community wellbeing. Whilst the influences on Yolngu management of their community are highly complex (cultural, economic and historical) the research confirmed a core of issues around colonial agency virtually unanimously expressed by all respondents. Despite natural right and legal land tenure (Aboriginal land held in fee simple under the ALR(NT) Act 1976)0F\ [1] government and NGO services and activities in Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku are increasdingly undertaken with external mandate only and prosecuted by non-Yolngu agents in English (still a subornitate language locally to the Yolngu lingua franca), guided by external agendas and success criteria1F\ [2].\ \ \ \ 

Community leaders concluded that they needed to reinstate Yolngu authority based in Yolngu law to provide a forum through which emergency management and other agencies can offer and deliver services more effectively. Whilst not a new idea, the structure they settled on (named the Dalkarra and Djirrikay Authority - DDA) developed without hosting or direction from non-Yolngu organisations. The CRC northern hub projects enabled NAILSMA to provide basic financial, logistical and administrative support, as requested by community leaders, playing a crucial role in buttressing culturally appropriate Yolngu-controlled participatory research and resilience building activities since the 2015 cyclones.

The DDA has been a forum in which community tensions have been sensitively managed in order to engage effectively with service providers including emergency management agencies. The DDA has many challenges (internal and external) but has recently engaged with a CRC supported {\textquoteleft}sister{\textquoteright} initiative at Ramingining to share experiences and discuss views on ways forward. Despite operating independently, the Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining groups identified common concerns, and expressed an interest in obtaining mutual support and developing an agreed approach to anticipated face to face communication with the NT Comissioner for Police Jamie Chalker.\ \ 

For Ramingining, the focus was placed on why communities felt the response to Cyclones Lam and Nathan had not worked as well as they would have wanted. \ The community owned research at Ramingining was undertaken by the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network (ARPNet). ARPNet considered how the Bininj system can link up with the Balanda decision making system in a way that would improve on-ground engagement and developed a comprehensive list of protocols (see Utilisation and impact section).

Yolngu and Bininj experiences post cyclones Nathan and Lam challenge the current models for disaster response which focus on volunteer assistance.\  Yolngu/Bininj have a great deal to offer hazard assessment, preparation and response. Equitable and authoritative involvement for Yolngu/Bininj in all aspects of EM management is the only way to maximize positive EM outcomes. Local knowledge, skills and assets could be properly investigated, supported and developed to involve Yolngu/Bininj in producing more effective EM outcomes.\  This is demonstrated, for example, in environmental services by paid ranger groups undertaking complex land and sea management activities.

NAILSMA, ARPNet and CDU have also been working in parallel across other jurisdictions of northern Australia, and in government spheres in the NT, to understand and help progress more equitable and functional relationships in the emergency management space. This {\textquoteleft}global{\textquoteright} part of the project story is of significant interest to the Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining groups who seek the opportunity for the NT Partnership projects to engage directly with emergency management leadership. It has also given them a sense of common interest and comradery with countrymen interstate and raised an awareness for future possibilities in their own endeavours.

This BNHCRC research project is near complete, but for Indigenous leaders of Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining this important effort over the last few years has created a foundation for real change. They are at the beginning and with some clarity now about what needs to be done. \ Their research has identified key issues impeding efficiency in emergency management and response and the delivery of more desirable outcomes for remote Indigenous communities. In order to progress the dialogue created by this research toward more practical and tangible end use outcomes, the {\textquoteleft}next steps{\textquoteright} of a broader project need to be realised.


[1]\  The Aboriginal Land Rights (Northern Territory) Act, 1976 is Federal Government legislation granting communal freehold title to traditional Aboriginal land-owners in the form of Land Trusts (managed by the relevant NT Land Councils created under that legislation) in the Northern Territory only. Aboriginal Land Trusts are inalienable freehold.

[2] Whilst Yolngu acknowledge the need for many of the services provided it{\textquoteright}s the manner in which they are designed and provided that they feel disempowers them and at times contradicts the services and embeds bad protocol {\textendash} for example, complex community emergency response plans in English, kept at the police station; de-funding homelands; priveliging English over the natural language in schools; arbitrary and disconnected creation of Yolngu steering committees or reference groups to support government agency work; or the formation of a community committees such as to discuss COVID 19 issues and responses, a{\textquoteright}priori made up of non-Yolngu community agents. . . Whether constituted in the ways thus described, the strong perception by and effect on Yolngu is of deliberate dis-enfranchisement in their own community.

}, keywords = {communities, emergency management partnerships, remote north Australia}, issn = {637}, author = {Glenn James and Sithole, B and Danny Burton and Jeremy Russell-Smith} } @article {bnh-8283, title = {Development of a national set of Community Service Announcements for flood risk}, number = {706}, year = {2021}, month = {11/21}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report details a five-month utilisation project linked to the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC {\textquoteleft}Flood Risk Communication{\textquoteright} core research project[1]. The project aim was to deliver a nationally agreed set of public flood risk messages, informed by research and agreed by a national working group comprising SES representatives from all Australian states and territories.

Specifically, the messages developed in this project are {\textquoteleft}Community Service Announcements{\textquoteright} (CSAs) intended for initial use by ABC Emergency. These CSAs would typically be used in radio broadcasts during or in the lead up to, significant flood or storm events.

These CSAs are messages of around 30 {\textendash} 60 seconds duration; however, they may be combined to produce longer segments. In rolling emergency broadcasts, they provide breaks between status updates and warnings from the relevant state or territory emergency services and on-the-ground reporting. These flood CSAs contain public safety information about flood risks, desired behaviours and calls to action, and sources of help or support.

The project was highly collaborative, made possible by the creation of a Flood CSA working group (CSA WG). The CSA WG comprised representatives of all state and territory emergency service agencies with responsibility for response in floods, mostly State Emergency Services (SES), along with a representative of the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), and representatives from the CSA product end user {\textendash} ABC Emergency. This group was facilitated and supported by the report author and research Chief Investigator (CI) who also worked to incorporate research informed insights into the messaging, and a partner investigator (PI) from the research end user organisation, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC).\ 

The project comprised three stages: scoping; co-development; testing and finalising.

  1. SCOPING - this stage used consensus decision-making to identify and prioritise message topics and content areas.
  2. CO-DEVELOPMENT{\textendash} this stage involved message drafting and iterative review by the CSA WG to agree a provisional set of CSA messages.
  3. TESTING AND FINALISING {\textendash} this stage involved testing of the CSA messages through a series of focus groups with the public and a final round of review and refining based on their feedback to produce the final set of CSAs.

The final stage in this project is the end user production of the CSAs, i.e., professional recording and implementation ready for use. This last stage is outside the scope of the BNHCRC-funded project.

This report included details of the approaches taken and the outcomes in Stages 1 to 3.

The scoping stage of the project included use of a survey to aid the consensus process. Following agreement on the main content areas the second stage was co-development. In this stage the CSA WG was divided into small cross-jurisdictional {\textquoteleft}cluster{\textquoteright} groups to draft messages in two or three content areas, and this was followed by a whole-of-group iterative review process. A set of 26 provisional CSA messages were produced at the end of this stage.

In the final stage the ABC end user produced a set of first-pass audio recordings of each CSA. These were used for message testing with the public. Seven virtual focus groups were run with a total of 39 members of the public. Sample demographics were collected during this process to ensure national coverage across the sample and inclusion of a mix of genders, ages, and flood exposure. In addition, based on CSA message content, important sample characteristics were monitored to ensure inclusion of relevant target audiences in the sample, i.e., parents of younger children and youths/teenagers, drivers, large and small animal owners, and people living in rural locations.

Message testing included assessment of initial impressions, message understanding (words, structure), message ambiguity (intent, confusion), and relevance/utility to self and other. Focus group feedback was then fed back into a final set of edits for a last series of reviews and refining to produce the final set of agreed CSAs.

Nationally agreed Community Service Announcements

The final set of Flood CSAs comprises 26 messages. This includes messages that can be used in all phases of flood and storm events, although the majority are designed for use during an event. The messages cover a broad range of flood risk content including the need to prepare and leave early, risks associated with driving in floods, storms, and flash flooding, playing, and having contact with floodwater, issues for a range of animal owners, and safety considerations when cleaning up after flooding.

Following finalisation of the CSAs, these messages were approved by the AFAC SES Community Safety Group on 28 October 2021. These messages and the approach taken to develop them has now been written into an AFAC Procedural Guideline, which was endorsed by AFAC Council on 28 October 2021 and is available via the AFAC website[1].

The ABC has also finalised the production of the CSAs and these were distributed and available for broadcast from 8 November 2021.

Although the CSAs were created in response to a request by the ABC, and with their involvement, there is the opportunity for other broadcasters to use them too. It is important that those interested in using these CSAs consult the local State Emergency Service agency on which messages will be broadcast to ensure that this messaging complements and reinforces emergency services{\textquoteright} communications during the flood/storm emergency.

}, keywords = {communication, community service announcements, Emergency, flood risk}, issn = {706}, author = {Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-7903, title = {Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability {\textendash} final project report}, number = {655}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In 2016, the emergency management sector (EMS) acknowledged that action was needed to address the low representation of diversity in its workforce. This was being driven by a moral imperative to better represent the communities they serve (AFAC, 2016). The role of the EMS was also changing in response to ongoing unprecedented natural hazard events and the need for more strategic approaches to building resilience. This meant renegotiating the relationship between emergency management organisations (EMOs) and their communities, reinforcing the importance of D\&I. This brought to the fore the need to understand how to improve the effectiveness and value of D\&I in EMOs.

The main goal of the three-year project was to work with those in the sector engaged in D\&I practice and develop an evidence-based framework capable of supporting more effective management and measurement of D\&I. This was carried out in three phases: (1) understanding the context, (2) development of the framework, and (3) testing. Each phase was subject to annual review and the program was adjusted in response to the outcomes of those reviews.

The project used the {\textquoteleft}working from the inside out{\textquoteright} methodology to provide the framework for its activities (see p17 for details). This is a transdisciplinary approach that aims to develop workable solutions to seemingly intractable problems through collaborative research codesigned with end-users. The transdisciplinary aspect integrates different knowledge systems. It starts with understanding user needs and context, surveys available knowledge from a wide range of sources, puts this knowledge into a format that can be used in practice, and lastly tests the research outputs and refines this with end-users. The process is iterative with the key features of systemic assessments, integration into decision-making systems, translation, learning, adjustment and communication with end-users. Its key purpose is to ensure that research is fit-for-purpose and useable.


Following the scoping phase of the research project, three lines of inquiry were established to analyse the key systems that most directly influence D\&I for EMOs {\textendash} organisational, economic and community. A mixed methods approach was undertaken that incorporated case studies, semi-structured interviews, focus groups, decision-making assessments, desktop reviews of organisational documents, informal and formal literature, and ongoing review and feedback with end-users.

The initial literature review (Young et al, 2018a) assessed where D\&I practice was considered effective, the contributing factors to effectiveness and its benefits throughout the emergency services. It also reviewed the organisational change and innovation literature. In more recent years, the literature has changed focus from addressing diversity towards understanding the role of inclusion. It highlights the role of systemic approaches and the importance of understanding context in relation to achieving effective outcomes. The literature had stagnated in some areas, with few examples of successful implementation. The emergency services were not well-represented.

The final conclusion was that there were no suitable frameworks available and that information about the specific contexts for D\&I in the emergency services was limited. To provide a focus for the project and to inform practice, a definition of effective diversity (see p16) was developed.

We undertook case studies in three EMOs to inform the sectoral context. D\&I was present in all organisations, but not well-integrated into systems and processes, or connected to day-to-day decision making and tasks. The largest barrier was culture, and the largest need was in the area of management. Strategic vision and supportive organisational frameworks and processes were limited, resulting in shorter term, reactive approaches dominating the implementation of D\&I.

Predominantly response-based and hierarchical cultures and tactical decision making were often at odds with the more strategic-based softer skills required for D\&I. Many activities had not been effectively socialised or communicated, resulting in confusion, fear, resistance and difficult behaviours. There were also cultural gaps between upper and lower tiers in organisations. Implementation often focused on {\textquoteleft}obtaining (gender-based) diversity quotas{\textquoteright}, and rather than creating an inclusive culture, was felt to have polarised gender-based issues. There was a lack of awareness of what constituted appropriate language use and behaviours in relation to diverse communities and individuals. There was also no compelling narrative as to why it would be a business imperative or even perceived as such.

At the end of phase one, key components for the framework were identified. These were organised across the following areas: a strategic process of change, a programmatic continuous-improvement process and organic bottom-up growth. To develop these, further mapping and investigation of skills and capabilities in organisations and communities, and greater understanding of the economic value generated by programs were needed.

A turning point for the project was during phase two, following the {\textquoteleft}Into the future: building skills and capabilities for a diverse and inclusive workforce{\textquoteright} workshop in December 2018. Exploration of three scenarios revealed the extent of D\&I-related risk to EMOs. These related to the mitigation and management of social, human and innovation risk. These were not being formally managed or, in some cases, even recognised. It also highlighted the need to manage innovation risk during implementation activities. A better understanding of these risks provided the connection between day-to-day tasks and the business imperative for EMOs.

The participants in the workshop displayed a high level of skill and capability in these areas. Other work undertaken with Women and Firefighting Australasia (WAFA) indicated that the sector was becoming more aware of these risks, but needed further development of systems, skills and capabilities to manage them.

The risks associated with D\&I are not new, but are still largely unrecognised as part of formal risk management within organisations. Skills and capabilities associated with D\&I practice were, for the most part, being given a lower priority than those required to manage more established and accepted risks. If left unmanaged, D\&I risks are likely to {\textquoteleft}impair the ability of EMOs to perform their functions effectively{\textquoteright} (Young et al, 2019). \ 

Two economic case studies highlighted the benefits that could be achieved by successful programs. The Indigenous Fire and Rescue Employment Strategy (IFARES) program produced $20.00 of benefits for every dollar invested (Rasmussen and Maharaj, 2019). However, existing economic models need further development before programs for different cultural cohorts can be comprehensively assessed. Appropriate data also needs to be collected from the beginning of programs to support this.

The community case studies (Pyke, 2018b; Macdonald, 2020a, 2020b) illustrated some of the complexities in relation to the capabilities of diverse cohorts and young people, but each has its own context that needs further exploration. Although culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities have many capabilities, these have not been examined with respect to various needs, so are unlikely to be harnessed effectively in an inclusive manner (Pyke, 2018b; MacDonald, 2020a).

The final D\&I framework \ (Young and Jones, 2020) is constructed around four components:

This is developed to be flexible and adaptable, to aid decision making in a range of different contexts, and to be useful in full or in parts, depending on the situation an organisation may encounter and the context is which this is occurring. The strategic and programmatic processes are supported by guidance that outlines the key phases and question-focused considerations for practitioners (Young and Jones, 2020) and three practitioner manuals (Macdonald, 2020a; Ooi, 2020; Young et al, 2020). Progress over the three years of the project has culminated in the following conclusive statements (Young and Jones, 2020):

Common aspects found to support effective programs include:

This project has experienced a high level of uptake and use during its three-year term. This has been aided by the sector{\textquoteright}s focus on progressing the D\&I agenda, and the work of peak agencies and end-user organisations to develop programs and leadership. It has also contributed to the repositioning of the D\&I agenda as a risk-based business imperative, and has developed and provided materials to support the integration of D\&I into resilience, risk and workforce planning frameworks. Its effectiveness and impact are due to the collaboration and commitment of the end-user group who have actively participated, supported and promoted the work over the life of the project.

Considerable work is still needed in developing measurement protocols, particularly those related to economic evaluation and the effectiveness of inclusion. Further work is also needed to identify and document the specific capabilities and skills needed to support this. As D\&I is a long-term and dynamic issue, longitudinal evaluation is needed to assess returns on investment, ensure that visibility is maintained, and deeper understandings continue to develop.\ 

The final framework, which has been developed in close collaboration with practitioners in EMOs, provides a basis on which to build. The collateral from this study also captures and consolidates some of the considerable knowledge that already exists within these organisations to be used as reference material. This project has shown that achieving truly diverse and inclusive organisations is a long road, but it is one that EMOs are already travelling.

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity, inclusion, strength}, issn = {655}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and McDonald, F and Bruce Rasmussen} } @article {bnh-8038, title = {Economic Analysis Screening Tool: Guidelines}, number = {665}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This document provides an overview of the Economic Analysis Screening Tool (EAST) and its development, as well as the instructions on how to use it and how to interpret the results derived from it. EATS was developed by researchers from the University of Western Australia as part of the BNHCRC funded project {\textquotedblleft}Economics of Natural Hazards.{\textquotedblright}

These Guidelines should be used in conjunction with EAST and should be considered an integral part of the Tool package. We recommend users read these Guidelines before using EAST.

}, keywords = {analysis, EAST, economic, guidelines, screening, tool}, issn = {665}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-8120, title = {Economics of natural hazards - final project report}, number = {666}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The key aim of our project was to provide evidence on the economic, social, and environmental impacts of natural hazards, in order to help hazard managers make better decisions about the allocation of resources for the mitigation of natural hazards impacts. Using the tools and materials we have created in this project, our end-users will be better equipped to estimate the tangible (market) and intangible (non-market) impacts of natural hazards and assess how mitigation investments may reduce those impacts.

With this aim in mind, our main focus has been the development of tools and materials that make it easier for natural hazards managers to estimate the value of mitigation, integrate intangible (non-market) values in economic analyses of mitigation, and evaluate the difference it makes to include non-market values. Our goal has always been to provide managers with the tools they need to be able to make better decisions and have the evidence to back up their decisions.

Our project delivered 5 key outcomes:

  1. We launched an online platform for the Value Tool for Natural Hazards (a searchable database of the best available non-market value estimates relevant to natural hazards).
  2. We conducted a non-market valuation study that filled a major knowledge gap identified in the non-market values literature (i.e. the values of cultural heritage, social disruption and mental health, and how these are affected by natural hazards) and updated the Value Tool with the data from this study.
  3. We developed the Economic Analysis Screening Tool (EAST) for the evaluation of the (market and non-market) costs and benefits of mitigation options.
  4. We created a Free Online Video Course on the economics of natural hazards, using drawings and simple examples to explain key economic concepts and how they are applied to evaluate different mitigation options.
  5. We conducted an online training course on how to use economics in natural hazards management and delivered it to 4 different groups of end-user managers and practitioners.

All outcomes of the project had a utilisation focus and were developed in conjunction with our end-users. We spent a significant amount of time understanding our end-users{\textquoteright} challenges in order to create products that can help them make better decisions using economic analysis. We used their feedback to improve the tools developed and make them more accessible.

The work from this project has been published in 4 peer-reviewed publications, 8 conference papers and technical reports, 3 posters presented at conferences, and 4 online resources (see Project Publications section in this report).

}, keywords = {analysis, EAST, economics, mitigation, Natural hazards, natural hazards management, Policy, Value Tool}, issn = {666}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-8316, title = {Elephant Hill: Secw{\'e}pemc leadership and lessons learned from the collective story of wildfire recovery}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, pages = {241}, institution = { Secwepemcúl ̓ ecw Restoration and Stewardship Society}, abstract = {

Worldwide, catastrophic wildfires and the ongoing climate crisis are catalyzing Indigenous peoples to re-assert jurisdiction to lands and waters by leading the recovery and restoration of their/our territories.

{\textquoteleft}Mega-fires{\textquoteright} are increasingly burning landscapes that have been degraded by over a century of colonial state-driven forest (mis)management and a paradigm {\textendash} and paradox {\textendash} of fire suppression. Simultaneously, many settler-colonial governments are stating their commitments to {\textquoteleft}reconciliation{\textquoteright} and implementation of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Together, these two trends point to the critical need to uphold Indigenous rights and stewardship systems through Indigenous-led transformation of forest and (wild)fire management.

These ecological and socio-political shifts provided the context for the 2017 {\textquoteleft}Elephant Hill{\textquoteright} wildfire in British Columbia (BC), Canada, which burned close to 200,000 hectares throughout Secwepemcúl ̓ ecw {\textendash} the traditional and unceded territory of the Secw{\'e}pemc Nation. In the immediate wake of this fire, and the significant and interconnected social, cultural, economic and ecological impacts that are still ongoing, affected Secw{\'e}pemc First Nations advocated for Secw{\'e}pemc leadership in the recovery and regeneration of their territories in the months, years and decades to come.

Supported by a newly-elected provincial government with a mandate to advance reconciliation, and a provincial review that recommended {\textquotedblleft}establish[ing] Indigenous Peoples as true partners and leaders in emergency management{\textquotedblright}, Secw{\'e}pemc communities partnered with the provincial government to forge a new collaborative approach to land-based wildfire recovery. The Elephant Hill wildfire, and the joint recovery process that followed, is the focus of this report. We draw on in-depth interviews with Secw{\'e}pemc elected leadership and staff from communities and the provincial government, as well as ongoing work and action research with the Secwepemcúlecw\ Restoration and Stewardship Society, to provide a detailed account of this example of contemporary Indigenous leadership in wildfire management and land-based recovery.

This study was framed by a number of broad questions:

To highlight these lessons and demonstrate the need for transformative change, the story of the Elephant Hill wildfire and the joint leadership approach to wildfire recovery is told in four Parts:

PART 1: THE ELEPHANT HILL WILDFIRE (CHAPTERS 1{\textendash}4)

An overview of the record-breaking 2017 wildfire season in British Columbia; the experiences and responses of Secw{\'e}pemc First Nations and government agencies; and the impacts of these wildfires on Secw{\'e}pemc territories and communities.

PART 2: THE PROCESS FOR JOINT WILDFIRE RECOVERY (CHAPTERS 5{\textendash}7)

Understanding the drivers for collaboration; the process of negotiating the scope and governance of joint wildfire recovery; and a summary of land-based recovery activities and outcomes on Elephant Hill.

PART 3: REFLECTIONS ON {\textquoteleft}SUCCESS{\textquoteright} AND LESSONS LEARNED (CHAPTERS 8{\textendash}10)

Diverse views of {\textquoteleft}success{\textquoteright} and identification of key strengths, challenges and unresolved tensions to inform future collaborations.

PART 4: BEYOND ELEPHANT HILL (CHAPTERS 11{\textendash}13)

Persistent barriers; Secw{\'e}pemc priorities for advancing equal partnerships and First Nations leadership in (wild)fire management; and Secw{\'e}pemc visions for recovery, restoration and stewardship throughout Secwepemcúlecw.

}, keywords = {collaboration, Indigenous knowledge, Indigenous rights, leadership, reconciliation, stewardship, Wildfire, wildfire recovery}, isbn = {ISBN 978-1-7780135-1-5}, url = {https://www.srssociety.com/lessonslearned.htm}, author = {Sarah Dickson-Hoyle and Char John} } @article {bnh-8133, title = {Embedding non-technical skills as part of core business in emergency management - Final project report Part A}, number = {693}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Non-technical skills are increasingly being seen as a vital part of effective performance in industries where there is a high potential for catastrophic outcomes (such as medicine, maritime, aviation and the military). In these industries non-technical skills have become an integral part of core business and a variety of tools and training programs have been developed to support and enhance their use. Emergency management has been somewhat slower to adopt non-technical skills management programs, although such programs are now starting to emerge. The Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC has been instrumental in facilitating research in non-technical skills over the last 10 years and a reasonable body of work has emerged on non-technical skills. This project draws together much of this body of work by providing an overarching integrative framework and by developing a set of training materials that can be used to train people in emergency management. This set of materials is an important resource that can help the adoption of non-technical skills by agencies so that they come to be seen as core business.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, non-technical skills, teamwork}, issn = {693}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Peter Hayes} } @article {bnh-7791, title = {Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering - annual report 2019-2020}, number = {638}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project is a three-year project being jointly undertaken by researchers at RMIT University, the University of Western Australia, and Curtin University for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC). Now in its final year, it is the core project in the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s research cluster on Sustainable Volunteering. The goal of this cluster is to improve the long-term sustainability of the emergency management volunteer workforce and better engage the potential of volunteering to build disaster resilience in Australian communities.

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project has two broad aims, each of which is addressed by a targeted package of work:

The project complements other active BNHCRC research projects, especially in the emergency management capability cluster (e.g. Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability and Catastrophic and cascading events: planning and capability projects). It also draws from work in two completed projects: the Bushfire CRC Volunteerism project (2003-2010) undertaken by researchers at La Trobe University (Birch, 2011) and the BNHCRC Out of uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional volunteering project (2015-2017), which was a precursor to the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project based at RMIT University (B. J. McLennan, Kruger, Handmer, \& Whittaker, 2017; B. J. McLennan, Whittaker, Kruger, \& Handmer, 2017).\ 

This Annual Report communicates the key activities and achievements of the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project in the 2019-2020 financial year. This was the third year of the project (see also B. J. McLennan et al., 2018). The research phase of the project is due to end in December 2020.

}, keywords = {Emergency, sustainable, volunteering. recruitment}, issn = {638}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Patrick Dunlop and Darja Kragt and Djurre Holtrop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Hawa Farid} } @article {bnh-8139, title = {Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering {\textendash} final project report}, number = {695}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project was jointly undertaken by researchers at RMIT University, the University of Western Australia, and Curtin University for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC). It is the only core project in the CRC{\textquoteright}s research cluster on Sustainable Volunteering that is in active research phase. The goal of this cluster was to improve the long-term sustainability of the volunteer workforce, and better engage the potential of volunteering to build disaster resilience in Australian communities.

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project had two broad aims, each of which was addressed by a targeted package of work:

The project complemented other active CRC research projects, especially in the Emergency management capability cluster (e.g. Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability and Catastrophic and cascading events: planning and capability projects).\ It also drew from work in two completed projects: the Bushfire CRC Volunteerism project (2003-2010) undertaken by researchers at La Trobe University and the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Out of uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional volunteering project (2015-2017), which was a precursor to the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project based at RMIT University.\ 

This Final Report communicates the key activities and achievements of the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project in its entirety from July 2017, up to March 2021. It also describes a range of follow-on utilisation activities being undertaken from July 2020 to June 2021.

}, keywords = {Emergency, recruitment, sustainable, volunteering}, issn = {695}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Patrick Dunlop and Darja Kragt and Djurre Holtrop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Hawa Farid} } @article {bnh-8278, title = {Encouraging evacuation: the role of behavioural message inputs in bushfire warnings}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, abstract = {

In catastrophic bushfires or wildfires, warnings are issued by emergency service organisations to inform communities about the hazard and provide guidance about protective actions. Long-form warnings are complemented by shorter social media warnings that preference content about hazard severity. Warnings that do not include clear behavioural guidance can challenge clarity and community uptake. However, there has been little research that examines and compares existing warnings with those constructed to encourage behavioural intentions. In this study, we follow the Protective Action Decision Model and first identify cues that predict evacuation intentions. Next, we compare existing long-form and social media warnings with those modified to include behavioural advice and instruction to examine their effect on clarity and ease of action and protective action intentions. Findings show how the inclusion of behavioural inputs into social media warnings enhances protective action intentions, offering evidence to specifically support changes to existing practice.

}, keywords = {Behavioural inputs, bushfires, Evacuation, warning}, issn = {2212-4209}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102673}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420921006348}, author = {Amisha Mehta and Scott Murray and Ryan McAndrew and Michaela Jackson and Vivienne Tippett} } @article {bnh-8016, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road structures: bridges, culvers and floodways under natural hazards {\textendash} final project report}, number = {671}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Bridges, culverts and floodways are lifeline road structures and part of road networks, which have a significant role in ensuring resilience of a community before, during and after a natural disaster. Historical data demonstrates that the failure of road structures can have catastrophic consequences on a community affected by disaster due to the impact on evacuation and post disaster recovery.\  The main objective of the project is to understand the vulnerability of critical road structures: bridges, culverts and floodways under natural hazards of flood, bush fire and earthquakes. Once the level of vulnerability is established, the evaluation of importance of the structures for prioritization for hardening is important for decision making by road authorities.

The project funded by the BNH CRC addressed the above gap in knowledge through a comprehensive research program undertaken in collaboration with three research partners and six end user partners. In the first stage of the project, major failure scenarios and the consequences of failure were identified as a precursor for a focused research program on vulnerability modelling and prioritization of road structures under natural hazards. The research conducted included assessment of vulnerability of road bridges under flood, bush fire and earthquakes and floodways and culverts under flood. Further, three approaches were used to identify the consequences of failure of road structures under natural hazards: economic impact on the closure of structures on the community, prioritization of structures using analytical techniques and post disaster social, economic and environmental impacts of failure of road structures.

Major findings of the research include identification of the levels of hazard exposure which could lead to failure of structures and the other parameters affecting failure. Further, methods of modeling road structures under different loading regimes has been developed with case studies of typical structures. New design approaches for building back better have been proposed for floodway structures based on parametric analysis of typical types of floodways.

Major findings of the analysis of bridges under flood loading include (a) the current design process in the design standards for log and object impact are unconservative and rigorous analysis is recommended (b) when the flood velocity is over 4 m/s and the flood level reaches the soffit of the bridge deck, the failure probability of the bridge decks are very high. (c) particle size near the bridge pier foundations have a significant impact on the scour of bridge piers and placement of irregular shaped crushed rock at river-bed level can reduce the scour failure. Research conducted on impact of bush fires on composite structures indicated that the shear failure of the web of the girders is the major failure mode. Under earthquake loading, a major finding is that in the areas where peak ground acceleration is over 0.08g, girder bridges could have a high failure probability and a risk mitigation strategy is essential.

Three different tools are developed for determining the impact of failure of road structures considering economic as well as social, environmental and economic impacts.

A major utilisation outcome of the project is a resilient floodway design guide, published in collaboration with the Institution of Public Works Engineers Australia (Qld) (IPWEAQ). A utilisation project is currently in progress jointly funded by the IPWEAQ and BNH CRC. The guide has been reviewed by the IPWEAQ and is currently being revised by the researchers to enable uptake by local council Engineers. An asset management and vulnerability modeling tool for bridges has been developed for the DoT Victoria (formerly known as VicRoads) where the bridges prone to significant damage are highlighted in a GIS map of the road network.

There are two different models developed to evaluate the consequences of the failure of road structures: first considering economic impact of detour required and a second model capturing post disaster social environmental and economic impact of failure of road structures. The first tool has been incorporated into the vulnerability modeling GIS platform developed for \ the DoT, Victoria.

In addition to the above deliverables in the BNH CRC project, two subsidiary projects were undertaken to understand the effect of cyclonic events on bridge structures and also resilience of timber bridges under natural disasters.

The research team is working with the end users to socialize the vulnerability modeling and decision-making tools developed to enable optimized decision making to enhance resilience of road structures under natural hazards. This is currently being continued with direct funding from the DoT, Victoria.

}, keywords = {Bridge, critical, culvert, enhancing, Floodway, Natural hazards, resilience, road, structure}, issn = {671}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Priyan Mendis and Karu Karunasena and Kevin Zhang and Dilanthi Amaratunga and Weena Lokuge and Nilupa Herath and Long Shi and Hessam Mohseni and Huu Tran and Kanishka Atapattu} } @article {bnh-8189, title = {Established and emerging uses of predictive services in Victoria}, number = {697}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The recent 2019-20 Black Summer bushfire season brought both sector and public attention to the important role that predictive services can play in mitigating and preventing the loss of life and assets from bushfires.

This research study focused on two key questions:

  1. What are the key features of effective relationships between Fire Behaviour Analysts (FBANs) and their users within emergency management?
  2. How might the predictive services role and predictive services outputs be developed in the future?

We explored these questions by conducting twenty-five (25) semi-structured interviews with key practitioners who either perform the FBAN role or use predictive services in Victoria.

Our findings are categorised into 7 topics:

1. Interviewee background: The interviewees included people who represent the following operational roles: FBAN, State Regional Commander, State Agency Commander, Level 3 Incident Controller, Level 3 Public Information Officer, Level 3 Planning Officer, Level 3 Operations Officer, and Level 3 Situation Officer.

2. FBAN outputs: We collected data from FBANs and other operations staff who occupy roles which interact with and/or use the outputs produced by FBANs from within the broad emergency and incident control arrangements provided for within the Australasian Inter-service Incident Management System.

We found that the FBAN advice and products are used to:

Most interviewees agreed that the design and framing of outputs should be standardised for public dissemination, however, there was less consensus that such standardisation is required for operational purposes.

3. Trust in FBAN outputs: We found that in general:

Trust is an important factor in the high-pressure contexts of incident and land management, including both interpersonal trust and trust in particular tools and systems. We found that trust seems to depend, in part, upon users{\textquoteright} perceptions of a given FBAN{\textquoteright}s skills, level of experience, and knowledge of the area or context in which they are offering predictive intelligence. For FBANs, both having fireground experience and {\textquotedblleft}local knowledge{\textquotedblright} and being able to convince users that one has fireground experience and {\textquotedblleft}local knowledge{\textquotedblright} seem to be important factors in eliciting the trust of some users.

4. Timeliness of FBAN outputs: We explored whether FBANs produced advice and outputs in a timely manner. We found that:

For example, a {\textquotedblleft}quick and dirty{\textquotedblright} map of potential fire spread was seen to be acceptable during first attack. However, the pressure related to timeliness decreases during an extended attack and is substantially decreased during pre-event planning and planned burning, or in any instance where there is potentially more time for FBANs to converse with end-users, collect and validate intelligence and tailor the outputs to the end-users{\textquoteright} needs.

5. Benefits of releasing FBAN outputs publicly: We explored whether participants felt predictive outputs produced by FBANs (e.g., fire spread predictions) should be released to the community (i.e., affected communities and the general public) to facilitate their decision-making and planning during periods of significantly elevated fire danger (e.g., days of {\textquotedblleft}Extreme{\textquotedblright} fire danger rating). We found that:

Participants noted that there is a moral imperative to release information to assist members of the public in their decision-making in relation to fire hazards. Further, there was a sense amongst many participants that, by releasing FBAN products publicly, emergency management organisations could support trust-building between agencies and communities and better demonstrate their transparency and accountability when working with the community to plan for and respond to bushfires.

6. Risks of releasing FBAN products publicly: We explored with the participants whether they felt that it was a risk to release FBAN outputs to the community to facilitate their decision-making and planning on days of significantly elevated fire danger. In general, participants reported that there were low levels of risk associated with releasing FBAN outputs to the community to facilitate community decision-making and planning.

We found that, where there was unease amongst participants in relation to releasing FBAN outputs publicly, it was because of:

7. The future of the FBAN role: We explored whether participants felt that the FBAN role will continue to be important within the broad emergency and incident control arrangements. We found that:

With this in mind, it is important to understand that the development of predictive services must ensure that it is further integrated into emergency management arrangements outside the State Control Centre. Specifically, viewed in relation to other project findings, it is clear that for such development and integration to be effective, FBANs will be required to spend more time interacting with users. Such interactions may sometimes occur outside fire seasons, though it is also apparent that they also need to occur throughout the fire season, on firegrounds and in Incident Management Centres and Regional Control Centres, in order to grow FBANs{\textquoteright} skillsets, maintain trust with users, educate users about their outputs and adapt those outputs to user needs. Various users had suggestions about how predictive services might better serve their needs, the vast majority of which related to the refinement of output types and modes of presentation to incidents and situations as they emerge.

Following this feedback also means exploring the different ways that FBAN skillsets and competencies can be used to assist key decision-makers such as Incident Controllers and community information and warning teams which continue to be so important in terms of planning and responding to bushfires. These skillsets and competencies - at both state and regional levels - also have relevant application to conduct of planned burning, and both users and FBANs suggest that more use can be made of FBAN skillsets and competencies to assist the states land and fire management agencies in achieving fuel management goals.

Based on these findings, we make 4 recommendations, detailed as follows:

Recommendation 1: that emergency management agencies explore which FBAN outputs could be released to the community to support their planning and decision-making during bushfire season.

Recommendation 2: that emergency management agencies explore how FBANs and predictive service outputs can be utilised to better support other relevant functions such as the conduct of planned burning and public information.

Recommendation 3: that emergency management agencies explore the ongoing training and development needs of FBANs.

Recommendation 4: that emergency management agencies work with FBANs to develop continuous learning processes which can be used to improve predictive services after bushfire and planned burning seasons.

In terms of utilisation, our recommendations will require an implementation strategy which needs to be mindful of the requirements to continue to plan for and respond to ongoing incidents that require predictive services. Accordingly, we propose a staged approach to utilisation that is channelled through the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Black Summer research group.

Finally, we have confidence that these findings and recommendations are relevant to many other jurisdictions in Australia, including Western Australia, Tasmania, South Australia, Australian Capital Territory, Queensland, and New South Wales, given their similarity in bushfire hazards, incident management systems, and the role and scope of predictive services.

}, keywords = {analysts, black summer, FBANs, Fire behaviour, predictive, services, Victoria}, issn = {697}, author = {Chloe Begg and Graham Dwyer and Timothy Neale and Ian Pollock} } @article {bnh-7996, title = {Fire spread across different fuel types: research and utilisation {\textendash} final project report}, number = {668}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

It is crucial for emergency and disaster management organisations to predict of the rate of spread and intensity of bushfires for operational planning, community warnings and the deployment of their resources. Currently, this is achieved by simulation using simplified operational models that have the useful attribute of providing results on time scales commensurate with those required by emergency managers. However, when Cruz \& Alexander [1] reviewed the performance of the operational fire models used by fire and emergency service analysts on seven vegetation types found in Australia, they found that on an average most of the fire models have an error of 20{\textendash}80\% in estimating the rate of fire spread. These differences in prediction are due to the assumptions and limitations of these models. Therefore, it is essential that these simplified operational tools be refined so that they can better predict fire behaviour. Additionally, a more physically based firebrand model needs to be included in operational models to predict firebrand distribution and subsequent spotting, which lead to an increased rate of fire spread (ROS). Currently, no such model exists. With an increased population in the rural{\textendash}urban interface (or wildland{\textendash}urban interface, WUI), it is also important to understand the vulnerability of houses from radiant heat and firebrand flux in order to minimise such vulnerability.

In this project, we tested two established reliable physics-based models: Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and FIRESTAR3D to simulate bushfire scenarios in three broad areas:

(1)\  sub-canopy wind flow,

(2)\  firebrand transport, and

(3)\  propagation of grass and forest fires.

We have made significant inroads into providing usable outputs as well understanding various aspects of bushfire behaviour. The following are particular highlights:

This project was also established to create a capability and capacity in Australia to conduct research and understand physical-based wildfire modelling approaches. There are several international groups developing these models, and it is imperative that Australia can interact and work alongside these researchers to translate the findings to the Australian context.

Overall, we have achieved our goal of obtaining greater insight into bushfire physics and we are now utilising those insights to parameterise various phenomena for operational models.

This report explains these issues in more detail.

[1] Meaning WRF will vary for the geographical location and driving wind velocity and direction

}, keywords = {Fire, fuel, research, spread, types, utilisation}, issn = {668}, author = {Nazmul Khan and Amila Wickramasinghe and Mahmood Rashid and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-7824, title = {Flood risk communication - final project report}, number = {645}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The context for the research

The\ focus of this research project was informed by the findings of earlier BNHCRC research that investigated human fatalities from natural disasters (Haynes et al., 2017). This project focused on the two behaviours most frequently associated with flood fatalities:

  1. Driving into floodwater in a motor vehicle, and
  2. Recreating in floodwater.

Although there were pockets of information and more detailed knowledge about these behaviours held in some jurisdictions, there was no national picture of either the details surrounding vehicle-related flood fatalities or the incidence of these two general behaviours and the detailed contexts in which the public enters floodwater. Therefore, by studying the general public more comprehensively, there was an opportunity to quantify behaviours and identify the potential challenges and additional levers for communicating flood risk, as well as enabling greater insight into differences across Australia (both within and across jurisdictions).

In addition, the information that was already known about behaviour in floodwater related solely to the general public. Emergency services, in particular State Emergency Services (SES) personnel, were previously identified as an at-risk group for entering floodwater and flood fatalities.

In the context of established approaches to the investigation of risk perception, comprehension, and risk-taking behaviour, SES personnel represent an {\textquoteleft}expert{\textquoteright} group. This meant they could also provide insights about risk perception and risk communication when studied and compared to the {\textquoteleft}lay public{\textquoteright} (expert-novice paradigm), for example enabling identification of differences in use of words/ language, conceptualisation of {\textquoteleft}flood{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}flooded roads{\textquoteright}, and identification and use of environmental cues when judging flood risk.\ 

Finally, as a risk group there is an organisational imperative to study the behaviour of SES personnel entering floodwater when on/off duty. This research supports the evaluation, understanding, and provides opportunities to assist in the mitigation of a range of organisational risks, including

This project commenced in July 2017 and comprised broad two phases:

  1. Understanding behaviour in and around floodwater, and
  2. Collating flood risk communications and co-developing Community Service Announcements (CSAs) for flood for use in National broadcasting by the ABC.

Project strategy for research and collaboration

The research strategy involved a suite of research studies, and employed mixed qualitative and quantitative methods, including experimental research, questionnaires, and in-depth interviews employing a mental models approach to ensure the research problem is well understood, the needs of those at risk could be met, and knowledge is co-produced with end-users and community.

Consultation and collaboration with key stakeholders and various end-users were key aspects of the overall research approach and helped to determine the research foci through the lifetime of the project. Following this collaborative approach, the research was responsive to stakeholder contexts. This enabled the team to take advantage of opportunities to explore some new topics in greater depth (e.g., SES behaviours around floodwater), but has also meant there were some delays and changes to the planned research activities (e.g., being unable to progress some approaches and outputs due to COVID-19). As a consequence, some of the resulting outputs and projects differ to the outputs outlined at the start of the project.

Project overview - extending what is known and addressing the gaps

Previous research has established that floods in Australia are a significant, and often preventable, cause of death, and this research has provided some useful insights to the risk perceptions and planned behaviour among the public in relation to driving and floodwater (Fitzgerald, Du, Jamal, Clark, \& Hou, 2010; Hamilton, Peden, Pearson, \& Hagger, 2016; Haynes et al., 2017).

This project builds on existing knowledge in several important ways:

Overall, these various studies highlight some of the complexity and challenges in flood risk communication and flood risk assessment and factors that need to be considered when developing communication materials. The detailed nature of the data collected also provides insights to how interventions and flood risk communication and engagement work can be targeted.

A snapshot of key findings

As the project\ comprised a number of studies it also generated a substantial number of findings and insights. These have been condensed into a series of practitioner-focused Research into Practice Briefs. In addition, the BNHCRC Communications Team has developed a short series of videos to showcase some key research findings and augment these Briefs.

A snapshot of key findings across the various studies is provided below:

Areas for research utilisation

This\ project provides an in-depth understanding of how the public and emergency service professionals (SES) behave around, and understand the risks of, floodwater. The translation of these findings into utilisation and impact is an ongoing process that will continue beyond the formal end of the research.\ 

There are four main areas of research utilisation that are being pursued:

In addition\ to the above areas of potential and emerging utilisation, the project team has worked actively with end-users and a range of additional stakeholders to co-produce project outputs, including conference presentations (Taylor, Wiebusch, Tofa, Haynes; AFAC 2019) and co-authored peer-reviewed articles (Taylor, Tofa, Haynes, McLaren, Readman, Ferguson, Rundle, Rose, 2019).

Research Capacity Building

The\ research project team has also supported research capacity building through the mentoring and inclusion of students in research activities, including a successful PhD completion (Ahmed, 2019), five Masters of Organisational Psychology students, two psychology honours students, and a number of short-term research and engagement placements. The project funding has supported early career researchers (ECRs) and has enabled these ECRs and students to progress through co-authored peer-reviewed publications and utilisation outputs, i.e., Research into Practice Briefs.

}, keywords = {communication, communities, Flood, risk}, issn = {645}, author = {Mel Taylor and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes} } @article {bnh-8000, title = {Growing the seeds: recovery, strength and capability in Gippsland communities}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Victoria University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

{\textquoteleft}Adversity is a cloak that shrouds great gifts. It is up to us to cast away the cloak and reveal all that lies within. This is the journey.{\textquoteright} {\textemdash} Milena Cifali, Mallacoota Time: The Lost Summer 2020

The 2019{\textendash}20 East Gippsland fires occurred during the most severe fire season ever recorded on the east coast of Australia. They burned from November 2019 to February 2020, damaging over half of the East Gippsland Shire, an area of over 1.16 million hectares. Over 400 dwellings and businesses were lost and four people lost their lives. Recovery had just begun when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. In the same way that the Black Saturday Bushfires have fundamentally changed how bushfires are seen, these events have changed how recovery will be thought about. Writing this report has been a confronting and humbling experience.

In initial conversations, it became clear that the community members who participated wanted a different conversation to the one they had been having. They were seeking to be heard and understood {\textendash} not as victims of the bushfires, but as people who needed support because of the bushfires. To accommodate this, the research has been shaped around the conversation they wanted to have, which is focused on community strengths and capabilities.

This study was undertaken when COVID-19 restrictions were in place, extending for two weeks after Melbourne{\textquoteright}s lockdown ended. As a result, this report represents a snapshot of the recovery process at that time, and contains material that may distress individuals who have been affected the bushfires and the COVID-19 pandemic.

This report does not aim to represent all community issues or speak for the whole community, but rather to identify overarching themes around capabilities raised by those who wished to participate in the study. Participants have spoken about their experiences; those observed in their home communities and other communities they are working with. We also acknowledge that since the end of Melbourne{\textquoteright}s lockdown and the easing of COVID-19-related restrictions, circumstances may have changed, affecting communities{\textquoteright} contexts; and government and non-government agencies may be acting on issues contained in this report.

The purpose of this report

The purpose of this report is to provide a starting point for assessing and understanding community capability practically, and to provide an indicative status of these in East Gippsland and Wellington Shires following the bushfires. It uses a systemic assessment of social, economic and risk contexts to examine community strengths and capabilities, and identify potential future pathways.

The first section of this report has a specific focus on the capabilities involved in community recovery and how they have been experienced by diverse groups within the East Gippsland and Wellington community. This is viewed through a strengths-focused lens. It also provides an initial assessment of the status of the capabilities identified, and the challenges, needs and opportunities that have arisen as part of the recovery experience.

The second section provides a broader picture of the comparative strengths, capabilities and needs identified in an online survey of those impacted by the bushfires in New South Wales and Gippsland through established community panels. The results show which aspects are shared more broadly, those partitioned by direct and indirect experience, and those specific to the East Gippsland community.

The third section provides an economic assessment of two local government areas {\textendash} East Gippsland and Wellington Shires {\textendash} to provide a high-level assessment of the economic influences and impacts on the intersection of the COVID-19 pandemic and bushfire recovery.

}, keywords = {black summer, Capability, communities, gippsland, recovery, strength}, isbn = {978-1-86272-829-5}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and Craig Cormick} } @article {bnh-8293, title = {Guidance framework for the selection of different fuel management strategies}, number = {716}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Planned burning is one of the most utilised fuel management activities, but the safe application of this method is hindered by climate change (e.g. shrinking and shifting windows of opportunity) and adverse societal and environmental outcomes (e.g. smoke impact, risk of fire escape). For this reason, fire managers need access to detailed information to help them make informed decisions and select a fuel management strategy that is compatible with a range of factors.

This report focuses on the development and illustration of a general guidance framework that provides users with the information and knowledge they need to select suitable fuel management strategies for their particular circumstances, and hence assists them with preparing an effective fuel management plan. The framework is developed based on a review of literature and data collected from survey responses from local governments and their fire managers in Western Australia who conduct fuel management activities.

The framework provides information on a set of functions bushfire mitigation officers need to consider when developing fuel management plans for a range of fuel management techniques. The functions are divided into:

The fuel management techniques include:

The utility of the framework is illustrated on two hypothetical scenarios, representing situations where a user would like to ascertain relevant attributes of a set of candidate fuel management techniques and where a user would like to identify the best fuel management technique for a given situation.

}, keywords = {framework, Fuel management, guidance, strategies}, issn = {716}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Tim McNaught and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7808, title = {Guidance note for replication of case studies - Black Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Oswald, Queensland floods and Toodyay bushfire}, number = {643}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There are two main considerations in the first step of our methodology:

It is preferable to identify the disaster-affected areas at finer units because this approach will yield more precise estimates for the disaster effects.

Generally speaking, SA2s [1] provide finer units for analysing the disasters that struck regional areas because LGAs are relatively large in regional areas. By contrast, when analysing disasters that hit metropolitan/urban areas, LGAs provide the finer geographic variation while also capturing the jurisdictional differences that might be relevant to disaster impacts.

Before embarking on each case study, we carried out detailed ArcGIS work using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. In identifying the disaster-hit SA2s or LGAs, we first overlaid the disaster zones on statistical and administrative maps. In particular, we used disaster maps to apply location-based analysis, that is, to vectorise and transform our raster data to map coordinates by using the ESRI shapefile formats provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Here, it is important to achieve an almost perfect overlap between the raster and our target data in terms of the location, shape, and attributes of geographic features for different statistical units. In the following step, we determined the disaster-hit SA2s or LGAs.

In determining the comparison groups, again it is important to consider the nature of the disaster-hit areas. For regional disasters, it is more appropriate to choose neighbouring areas that are not hit by the disaster but share similar economic, geographic and topographic characteristics with the disaster-hit areas. For disasters that strike metropolitan areas, comparability is likely to be obtained from other metropolitan areas. In Australia, typically, capital cities mimic each other in terms of their economic, demographic and geographic characteristics. For example, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Perth and Adelaide are located on river banks and have agriculture-based hinterlands.

Below we describe how we specifically determined disaster-hit areas for each case study.

[1] SA2s in Australia host 3,000{\textendash}25,000 people, with an average population of about 10,000 individuals.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, brisbane floods, case studies, cyclone oswald, economics, toodyay bushfire}, issn = {643}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-7902, title = {Hazards, culture and Indigenous communities {\textendash} final project report}, number = {654}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the Final Report of the Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities (HCIC) project. This project considered the challenges and opportunities arising out of engagements between Indigenous peoples and natural hazard and land management government agencies in southern Australia. The majority of this activity has focused on cultural burning, which has also been our focus.

Significantly, there is very limited existing research about these engagements, and limited public sector experience in engaging with Indigenous peoples. This constrains evidenced-based policy and practice and practitioner decision making. This lack of capacity was clear in the responses to the 2019-20 bushfires. The natural hazard sector is now required to do this retrospective and forward-looking learning, to foster more culturally safe natural hazard mitigation, and better connect the logics of hazards, risk and resilience. Indeed, our research found that when the sector does not account for cultural protocols and permissions as part of its core business, this produces barriers to collaboration because it:

We undertook qualitative research, primarily through forming partnerships with key practitioners working in this space and undertaking research activities that iteratively learnt from these partnerships. In this, researching both Indigenous and non-indigenous values has been important in order to navigate and analyse this intercultural context.\ 

Our research findings are structured in two sections: the first presents the results from our literature review, the second presents a synthesis of the research findings arranged under six headings, as listed below, with recommended first steps for the natural hazard sector under each heading. Given previous sector and research practices, the suggested first steps require significant sector leadership and investment in Indigenous-led research.

Research findings

Unfamiliarity with the context itself

There needs to be a rapid growth in sector capacity in understanding the context itself, especially:

Essentially, the sector needs to understand where it sits in relation to Indigenous peoples.

Trust and partnerships

The shared motivations held by some Indigenous and non-indigenous individuals to form collaborative partnerships are challenged by their operating context, including a lack of trust, bureaucratic constraints, tokenism, racism, and a lack of resources. The sector needs to move beyond statements of support, to develop specific policies and programs that demonstrably grow opportunities for Indigenous engagement and partnership. We suggest these policies should be:

Centring Country and First Peoples

It is clear from our research that if emerging collaborations are to be sustainable, Aboriginal people need to be centred on meaningful terms across a suite of natural hazard practices and policies. We suggest this should involve:

Administration and regulation

There is a clear need for more culturally appropriate and equitable regulatory, training and qualification regimes for bushfire management across Australia. From our research findings this includes:\ 

Expert evidence and erasure

Academic and government research has failed, almost without exception, to consider Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} experiences with natural hazards in southern Australia. To address this imbalance, the public sector needs to create specific funding streams to address this research gap. These funding schemes should be:

Accounting and reporting

Our research showed that there was very little attention given by the sector to accounting and reporting their policy commitments and legal obligations towards Aboriginal peoples, reducing sector transparency, accountability and coordination. In response, we suggest that a;; land and emergency management agencies should include in their annual reports details about:

We emphasise that conducting a cultural burn in of itself is not necessarily a good outcome, as the value of the cultural burn is dependent on the meaningful involvement of First Peoples.

Fundamentally, we argue that the sector and Aboriginal peoples have to build capacity, meet, and be more organised locally and across larger regions. To do so, we suggest:

In summary, we suggest that land and emergency management agencies need to:

Concluding remarks

With the recent catastrophic bushfires, there is an expressed demand for greater engagement with Indigenous peoples iconic burning practices. More generally, it may be that the public sector has reached a tipping point, whereby adversarial approaches to working with Indigenous peoples are being authentically replaced with partnership approaches. In this, the findings are not just of relevance to the natural hazard sector, but across other public sector practice.

Fundamentally, sector leadership has to consider: why and how it wishes to collaborate with Indigenous peoples; allocate the resources and time to understand the status quo that has excluded Indigenous people to date; create processes and structures to support Indigenous leadership, participation and collaboration across the sector; and, address deficiencies in how sector performance is currently measured and reported.

}, keywords = {communities, culture, hazards, indigenous}, issn = {654}, author = {Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale and Will Smith} } @article {bnh-8012, title = {Heatwave and building codes in New South Wales: issues and prospects}, number = {611}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report reviews key literature and considers the overall comprehensiveness of the NSW building codes in terms of their contributions to selected elements of heatwave resilience. It identifies success, opportunities and issues relating to the contribution of building codes to natural hazard resilience. Overall, this report suggests that there is no effective acknowledgement of heatwave in the National Construction Code, and that there is limited integration between building and other key systems such as land use planning, health services and emergency preparedness and response. A range of areas are proposed for attention.

}, keywords = {building, codes, heatwave, issues, nsw, prospects}, issn = {611}, author = {Alan March and Crystal Legacy and Georgia Warren-Myers and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-8292, title = {Identification of fuel management locations and risk reduction potential}, number = {715}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Planned burning is one of the most utilised fuel management activities, but the safe and effective application of this method is likely to be hindered by climate change (e.g. shrinking and shifting windows of opportunity) and potential adverse societal outcomes (e.g. smoke impact, risk of fire escape). For this reason, fire managers need access to detailed information to help them make informed decisions and select a fuel management strategy that is compatible with a range of factors.

This project explored the use of experts{\textquoteright} knowledge and the UNHaRMED Decision Support System (DSS) framework (an integrated spatio-temporal model for analysing natural hazard risk within urban and rural environments) to identify areas where fuel management activities should be conducted within the study area and identify future bushfire risk reduction potential at identified hotspots.

The discussions with end-users resulted in the selection of five major areas to focus on for this study (i.e. Gingin, Kalamunda, Mundaring and Margaret River). The level of bushfire risk simulated in UNHaRMED for a baseline period indicated a good agreement with the perceived levels of bushfire risk at the rural-urban interface identified by the relevant bushfire management agencies. This observation therefore suggests that UNHaRMED is suitable for identifying areas of emerging risk under different climate change scenarios.

This research also highlighted that areas where fuel management activities are currently conducted in Gingin, Kalamunda, Mundaring and Margaret River overlap with areas of high bushfire risk modelled in UNHaRMED (rural-urban interface). This suggests that UNHaRMED is suitable for assessing the impact of fuel load mitigation activities a the rural-urban interface in WA.

The next step will be to run UNHaRMED simulations involving a range of future climate and population growth scenarios with and without fuel management activities (M2). This will then enable us to identify how bushfire risk changes for each scenario, where management activities are desirable, and where potential risk reduction will be possible (irrespective of management type) (D2).

}, keywords = {Fuel management, locations, potential, risk reduction}, issn = {715}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Tim McNaught and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-8294, title = {Identifying opportunities for the use of different fuel management strategies in WA}, number = {717}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire risk is likely to increase in the future due to the combined impacts of climate change and urban sprawl. Planned burning is one of the most utilised fuel management activities, but the safe application of this method is being threatened by climate change (e.g. shrinking and shifting windows of opportunity) and potential adverse societal outcomes (e.g. smoke impact, risk of fire escape). In order to address this issue, this report introduces a novel approach to determining the suitability of different fuel management approaches (e.g. forest thinning, scrub rolling, mulching, mowing/slashing, planned burning pile burning, chipping, grazing) in different areas using a combination of local knowledge/experience and spatial data analysis. The approach is applied to four areas of emerging bushfire risk in Western Australia identified in consultation with end-users, producing maps for different fuel management approaches that indicate where the application of particular fuel management approaches is suitable. These maps can be obtained for current and future conditions, therefore providing an assessment of which fuel management options are available to mitigate the impact in areas of emerging bushfire risk. The approach is generic and flexible and can be tailored to different locations based on information of local knowledge and experience.

}, keywords = {Fuel management, opportunities, strartegies}, issn = {717}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Tim McNaught and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7868, title = {Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East Coast Lows - final project report}, number = {647}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East-Coast Lows set out in 2017 to demonstrate a pilot capability to deliver wind and rain impact forecasts for residential housing from an ensemble of weather prediction models runs. The project was a collaborative effort between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Bureau) and Geoscience Australia (GA).

The project was initially focused on the wind and rainfall impact from the 20-22 April 2015 east coast low event in New South Wales (Wehner and Maqsood 2015). The wind and rainfall hazard data were provided by a 24-member ensemble of the Australian Community Climate Earth System Simulator (ACCESS; Bureau of Meteorology 2018) model on a 1.3 km grid, with damage data provided by NSW State Emergency Services (SES) and the Emergency Information Coordination Unit (EICU. Exposure data were sourced from the National EXposure Information System (NEXIS; Nadimpalli et al. 2007; Power et al. 2017) at GA. Heuristic wind vulnerability functions, derived in a previous project, were also provided by GA, while no large-scale rain vulnerability relationships existed.

Through the utilisation of GA{\textquoteright}s HazImp software, we developed and tested a workflow that integrated the numerical weather forecasts, vulnerability relationships and exposure data at the community level, and early in the second year of the project we started producing the first spatial quantitative wind impact plots.

The multi-hazard nature of the east coast low event, the relatively low wind speeds relative to the design wind speeds for the affected residential buildings and the available damage assessment data made attributing the observed building damage to a single hazard such as wind or rain difficult. Wind damage to residential housing in this case was largely due to tree fall, as opposed to structural failure, while the most severe damage for the Dungog event was due to flood inundation. To increase the utility of the damage assessment data we recommended early in our project that the SES/EICU damage survey templates should record multiple damage states and linkages between damage and the associate hazard(s). Such expanded recording practices would lead to improvements in the development of the hazard-damage relationships, a requirement for progress in quantitative hazard impact modelling. Additional uncertainty arose through the NEXIS exposure data which are statistically inferred at the Dungog township and are therefore merely indicative of the actual building attributes.

During the second year of the project a range of scope reductions were introduced in response to our previous and emerging findings during this second year.

The project set up the end-to-end workflow from wind hazard to spatial impact. These spatial impact outputs were delivered into the Visual Weather system at the Bureau of Meteorology, foreshadowing the possibility of easily achievable future visualisation to operational meteorologists.

To evaluate the performance of the quantitative wind impact forecast that we had produced, very careful and detailed processing of the available damage data was needed to remove damage reports due to tree fall, as opposed to structural failure, rain ingress, and flood inundation. We have now shown that the inclusion of exposure and vulnerability information can outperform a wind impact forecast that only uses a plain wind hazard prediction. In other words, the Dungog case study suggests that the extra effort needed for the quantitative inclusion of exposure and vulnerability information is a promising approach in the pursuit of future quantitative impact forecasts in Australia.

To gain a better understanding of how other agencies have approached the wind impact prediction problem, we also conducted an extensive literature search which resulted in a selective summary of meteorological hazard impact prediction systems. These findings have been submitted to the Australian Journal of Emergency Management as a review paper.

We finally applied our impact forecast methodology to a second extreme weather case during May 2020 in Perth. An extra-tropical cyclone produced widespread wind damage with wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h recorded over many hours. In this case we found that wind impact forecasts are sensitive to the fluctuations in wind gust forecasts produced by the Bureau{\textquoteright}s high-resolution real-time weather prediction models. Alongside the multi-hazard nature of damage to residential buildings, this impact sensitivity to the hazard constitutes a second complication for the quantitative prediction of wind impacts.

}, keywords = {coastal, east coast lows, Forecasting, zone}, issn = {647}, author = {Harald Richter and Craig Arthur and David Wilke and Mark Dunford and Martin Wehner and Beth Ebert} } @article {bnh-8236, title = {Implications of climate change for emergency services operations - insights from the literature}, number = {699}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Greenhouse gas emissions to date and existing pledges for emissions reduction from national governments suggest that the world is tracking a medium emissions future at best, and possibly a high emission one. This report consolidates available knowledge of the potential impacts of climate change on key issues that influence the (emergency management services (EMS) in Australia and New Zealand, through a systematic review of the literature (both peer reviewed and grey literature) combined with an analysis of relevant inquiries. It is an output of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project entitled Preparing emergency services for a climate-challenged world.

For the EMS, one of the most immediate and visceral impacts of climate change is increasing frequency and severity of disaster-inducing natural hazards. Yet, it would be a mistake to assume that this is the extent of the challenge: interacting climatic, social, demographic and economic trends will result in transformations in our societies and way of life. For the EMS, the climate change adaptation challenge is more than just {\textquoteleft}more of the same{\textquoteright}. The increasingly significant impacts that climate change is having on the natural and human systems that support livelihoods and wellbeing in Australia and New Zealand present a profound challenge for all communities, businesses and services.

In the decades ahead, Australia is expected to experience increased warming across the whole of the continent with rainfall declines over much of the southern parts of the country very likely. These changes are not unfolding linearly. Already it is clear that the climate has altered over recent decades through a serious of step changes or {\textquoteleft}breaks{\textquoteright}. This means that current rates of change are an unreliable indicator of future rates of change.

Similarly, New Zealand is already registering warming and changing rainfall in some regions. These trends are expected to continue and include increasing average temperatures and more hot days for norther areas, significant shifts in rainfall patterns and more extreme rainfall, and profound increases in the time spent in drought by 2040. Sea level rise is also a major concern for the island nation, with sea level rise around New Zealand projected to be up to 10\% higher than the global average.

For Australia and New Zealand, climate change means more heatwaves, more extreme precipitation events, more bushfire weather, more storms, fewer but more intense cyclones, and more landslides. It also means more compound events and cascading impacts, where multiple extreme events occur simultaneously {\textendash} as was seen in Black Summer, where bushfires, heatwaves and floods were experienced during a long-term drought. Climate change is also increasing the risk that second and third order impacts of disasters, such as a disease outbreak following a flood, themselves cascade into another event of equal or greater severity.

Increasing frequency and severity of climatic hazards are intersecting with growing exposure and changing vulnerability patterns to drive disaster risk. Some of the desirable features of contemporary lifestyles {\textendash} such as high levels of consumption and technology-dependent, centralised systems {\textendash} are further increasing disaster risk. A no-regrets approach to climate change adaptation is\ to build {\textquoteleft}adaptive capacity{\textquoteright}, which is made up of five interlinked domains: assets, flexibility, social organisation, learning, and agency. Building adaptive capacity/reducing vulnerability requires looking beyond direct climate change impacts (e.g. managing heat) to address structural and systemic constraints on the ability of people and ecosystems to adapt to ongoing change, such as social inequalities, low environmental sustainability and poor governance.

Climate change adaptation incorporates a range of objectives and areas of effort. While it necessarily involves {\textquotedblleft}coping{\textquotedblright} at any moment in time, it also extends far beyond just coping to also better {\textquotedblleft}fit{\textquotedblright} emerging conditions and to proactively adjust to, and help positively shape, the future. Criteria of success of a climate change adaptation initiative include effectiveness, efficiency, equity, accounting for externalities, and having an extended time horizon. The inverse of good adaptation is maladaptation: actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate related outcomes, increased vulnerability to climate change, or diminished welfare, now or in the future.

Adaptation faces limits and barriers. As climate change worsens, it is likely impacts will exceed some systems{\textquoteright} and groups{\textquoteright} capacity to manage them. Uneven structural vulnerabilities and engrained issues such as downplaying climate change risks means some groups are continually or regularly unable to cope or adapt well. One of the risks of the {\textquotedblleft}shared responsibility{\textquotedblright} paradigm of disaster risk management in Australia is that {\textquoteleft}communities often are left to manage residual risks shifted towards individuals, whether or not they have the financial, physical, mental, or social capacity to manage them{\textquoteright}. It is often assumed that a lack of climate change information or adaptation knowledge is the main barrier to effective and timely adaptation action. While knowledge and information are important, analysis of barriers to adaptation suggests that institutional barriers (e.g. lack of clear mandate, roles, responsibilities, willingness to act) are often more significant.

One of the enablers of good climate change adaptation is systems thinking {\textendash} appreciating systemic relationships and how to manage them. When it comes to the EMS, a systems-based approach widens our understanding of the sector and the many implications of climate change for it. This report presents two frameworks that are useful for contextualising the EMS in a wider context, identifying how climate change might influence various elements of this system, and where the EMS can direct different types of adaptation strategies.

The academic literature provides some valuable insights into the drivers at work in the EMS context. However, very little research addresses the {\textquotedblleft}question of the future{\textquotedblright} per se and that which does, does not do so in a comprehensive manner that incorporates climate change or challenges the assumption that existing trends will unfold linearly. We therefore need to bring together different insights in order to piece together what the future may entail for the EMS. One useful way to begin this process is to systematically consider the {\textquoteleft}STEEP drivers{\textquoteright} - that is, insights into Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Policy/Political drivers {\textendash} and to then start thinking through how they may interact with climate change. In response to input from the scenarios team (the other part of this project), we have included a sixth category {\textendash} legal {\textendash} into the framework. This report provides examples of the types of changes and uncertainties the EMS may need to consider as it encounters the climate change adaptation undertaking.

We draw on the literature review to present analysis provided to the scenarios process. This includes a summary of biophysical impacts of climate change to 2035, including a plausible (but not predictive) climate hazard event map. We then summarise the likely flow-on effects to 2035 and finally the likely implications of those flow-on effects for water and environment, agriculture and aquaculture, infrastructure, human health and wellbeing, and society in general. Finally, we explore what adaptive capacity might look like under the four plausible futures developed by the scenarios team. In this way, the EMS has a comprehensive picture of what climate change impacts might influence them and what resources they might have to manage them.\ 

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {699}, author = {Lauren Rickards and Adriana Keating} } @article {bnh-7922, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events - final project report}, number = {656}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This BNHCRC project titled:\  Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events prescribes practical structural retrofits that will make improvements to the performance of Pre-80s (Legacy) houses in windstorms as well as measures to reduce damage and loss to contemporary houses.

Damage investigations carried out by the Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) following severe windstorms have typically shown that houses built prior to the mid-1980s in Australia perform worse than houses constructed to contemporary building standards, during windstorms. Given that these older houses are a significant proportion of the housing stock, practical structural upgrading based on the latest research may improve performance of housing and the economic and social wellbeing of a community.

Some details for structural retrofitting currently exist, but their uptake is limited, and there is also evidence that these are not carried out when houses require repairs following severe storms. Therefore, the issues of retrofitting legacy housing, including feasibility and benefit-cost are analysed in this project.

The primary objective of this study was to identify vulnerable legacy house types across Australia and develop cost-effective retrofits for mitigating damage during windstorms. These evidence-based strategies will (a) aid policy formulation and decision making by Government and industry, and (b) provide guidelines detailing various options and benefits to homeowners and the industry for retrofitting typical at-risk houses in Australia. The main aims were to:

This report presents an overview of the research approach used for this project including the selection of house types, the development of the VAWS software and the Internet-based guidelines. A case study is presented of the vulnerability and benefit cost assessment of one of the selected house types, with the complete set of results presented in the Appendices. These results show that tile roofed houses in cyclonic regions of Australia benefit the most from retrofitting for severe wind events. The benefit-cost ratios for these tile roof houses and other house types are expected to improve when accounting for intangible costs, which are currently not included in the analyses presented in this report. In addition, examples of the impacts and utilisation of this project including the Queensland Government Housing Resilience Program are also presented.

}, keywords = {cyclone, events, existing housing, resilience, severe, wind}, issn = {656}, author = {John Ginger and Korah Parackal and David Henderson and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-8116, title = {Indigenous fire and land management - impact and sustainability}, number = {680}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

Significant work has been done over the life of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre around the issues, opportunities and challenges facing remote Indigenous communities in the face of natural hazards. In the north of Australia, the predominant natural threats are cyclones, wildfire and flood, though the level of threat and impact of any of these differs considerably from region to region. There are other hazards that deeply concern remote community leaders, again, not equally across regions: heat stress and exposure, natural water resource salination and pollution, food security, toxicity and asthma issues from crude community waste burning, infrastructure issues (including road access); and related challenges; local capability to act, governance, resilience, inclusion etc.

The emergency management sector research has focused on technologies, capability, recruitment, and other aspects of EM agency preparation, response and recovery. This project responds to an identified gap in addressing the overall environment of Emergency management in remote areas. . . working together!

It is broadly recognised within Indigenous communities that EM is carried out FOR them, not WITH them. (See detailed discussion of this in the Arnhem Land context in Maypalama et. al.: 2016 and Sithole et. al.: 2021). This has generated increased interest, not only in the future engagement of communities in EM, but in the roles, if any, of EM and other agencies in the resilience of communities who, given structural and resource limitations in EM, are keen (and encouraged) to increase {\textquoteleft}self-reliance{\textquoteright} and take on more responsibilities in this space.

There is now a growing conversation nationally around government agencies and Indigenous communities collaborating more effectively. Much of this conversation has been around the perceived positive impact of traditional knowledge (particularly use of fire) on landscape health, and vulnerability to wildfire, how this may be integrated into rural fire service practice and what the real impact of this might be.

Indigenous leaders and rangers have consistently said and shown that use of fire is not separate from other (holistic) elements of caring for traditional country and that the social and cultural dimensions to land and fire management need to be acknowledged and respected to deliver the desired benefits to country and people (Sithole et. al. 2021: Maypalama et.al. 2019: James et. al. 2019: Burgess et. al. 2009). There are many aspects to this conversation and many perceived potential benefits of working together. They underpin this project{\textquoteright}s focus on partnerships to be able to explore this work together. Thus, the research brief is to:

Method

This research was conducted as a series of community-based discussions and workshops in the Northern Territory and north Queensland. NAILSMA provided resources, logistics, backgrounding and other support to local Indigenous researchers and facilitators who ran the meetings on country. This was a Participatory Action Research (PAR) method, consistent with preceding research on community resilience and partnerships by ARPNet and NAILSMA under the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project Developing effective partnerships in remote north Australian communities: Indigenous research and leadership in Ramingining and Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku. Inherent in this approach are direct benefits to Indigenous researchers and their communities from the process and from longer term outcomes influenced by their research and advocacy with EM agency leaders.

\ Where possible, meeting notes from the NT and Qld discussions were drafted and circulated to respondents and all invitees to the final combined workshop. This was to share what had already been discussed and to help provide focus.

An Agency Reference Group (ARG) (made up predominantly of representatives from QFES, NTES and DFES, but including CDU, Red Cross, NAILSMA and BFNT people) was invited to review and respond to early workshop outcomes, and attend the final workshop. This step was to inform the ARG and Indigenous community invitees to the final workshop with a general view of both Indigenous and agency perspectives on EM priorities and partnership prospects. They were able to kick-off their face-to-face discussions with a degree of prior understanding and focus.

This final, combined workshop was hosted by Djabugay people on their land, facilitated by Barry Hunter, a Djabugay leader and consultant and supported by NAILSMA.

Findings

To inform a Future Research Strategy the research team has organised ideas from the workshop and broader project into:

The work found that gaps are evident within communities, within EM agencies and between them. Summary of the findings includes:

Research Priorities mirror the above gaps and challenges, leading to achieving practical steps in long-term relationship pathways:

Integrating Indigenous fire and land management knowledge with EM operations and systems is not about taking the knowledge, it{\textquoteright}s about building respectful and trusting relationships with Indigenous people to deliver more effective EM together.

Utilisation

This research method (Participatory Action Research) assumes that the Indigenous researchers and their communities are a focal end-user. Participating EM agencies are another key end-user, not only by benefiting from the research in the long run but through face-to-face interactions with community researchers through which opportunities and challenges in developing direct relationships with participating communities can be discussed and solutions progressed firsthand.

In this sense the research is being used as it develops, to benefit communities, relationship building and short-term achievable change. It is also aimed at the national agenda for partnerships with Indigenous land managers, seeking to inform the new Natural Hazards Research Australia[1] about future research priorities and to encourage more discussion, more experience sharing and broader engagement of Indigenous leaders and influential EM agency staff in collaborative workshops hosted by Communities in different jurisdictions on country. This latter aim reflects the success of this project{\textquoteright}s collaborations and use of this model as an ongoing forum to benefit the sector. See for example the Aims and Expectations of the final project workshop below.

\ The summary of next steps:

  1. Relevant EM agencies and community leaders to start or continue working on their relationship and achievable change now.
  2. This report, supported by participating agencies, is presented to the new Natural Hazards Research Australia as a foundation to attract a future fully funded program of collaborative PAR with community researchers and of partnered EM activity.
  3. For the next and future collaborative workshops to be planned and funding secured so they may become annual, focused, Indigenous led pillars of EM sector partnerships.
  4. Conversations continue at 3 levels: community level, transregional and across the multi-agency national conversation. This should include Qld, NT and WA EM agencies connecting more effectively with each other and supporting each other to progress partnership building at North Australia scale.
  5. Indigenous communities and land management groups, their representative organisations and supporters take whatever steps they are able to, to build resilience and capability in EM.
}, keywords = {challenges, Emergency management, fire management, Impact, indigenous, land management, opportunities, partnerships, research strategy, sustainability}, issn = {680}, author = {Glenn James and Danny Burton and Otto Bulmaniya Campion and Barry Hunter and Jimmy Morrison and Ted Gondarra and James Bayung} } @article {bnh-8291, title = {Influence of climate change and fuel management on bushfire risk in Western Australia}, number = {714}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire risk is likely to increase in the future due to the combined impacts of climate change and urban sprawl. This report presents the results of an analysis combining the outputs from stakeholder consultation with those from the Unified Natural Hazard Risk Mitigation Exploratory Decision Support System (UNHaRMED) to quantify increases in bushfire risk due to different population growth and climate change scenarios in four areas of emerging bushfire risk in Western Australia. Results indicate that increases in bushfire risks from 2018 to 2050 range between 23.9\% and 59.7\% (in terms of average annual loss), depending on the scenario and case study area considered. UNHaRMED is also used to assess the potential of mitigating these increases in risk via fuel load reduction.

Results indicate that fuel management can reduce future bushfire risk and that the decline in risk is positively correlated with an increase in the proportion of the landscape treated. However, our results suggest that in cases where fuel management does significantly reduce the risk of impacts posed by bushfires, this reduction was much less than an increase in risk from climate change.

It should be noted that this project focused on the rural-urban interface in alignment with the existing Bushfire Risk Management Planning approach adopted in Western Australia. As such, landscape-scale mitigation was not considered in this particular project, but would be an important consideration in future research.

}, keywords = {bushfire risk, Climate change, Fuel management, Western Australia}, issn = {714}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Tim McNaught and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-8129, title = {Kangaroo Island Black Summer fire reconstruction}, number = {685}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the 2019-20 summer, wildfire affected an area of around 200,000 hectares on Kangaroo Island, South Australia, in what has become known as the Black Summer, with significant ongoing social, economic and environmental impacts.

The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard the geostationary satellite Himawari-8 provides infrared imagery at 2km spatial resolution at nadir in 10- minute intervals. This allows wildfires to be detected and monitored in quasi-real time using the Biogeographical Region and Individual Geostationary HHMMSS Threshold (BRIGHT) algorithm (Engel, Jones and Reinke, 2020), developed in partnership between the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) and the Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC. This report outlines the methods used to verify hotspots detected by the BRIGHT algorithm and reconstruct the Black Summer fires using spatio-temporal clustering.

}, keywords = {black summer, Fire, fire impacts, kangaroo island, reconstructions, remote sensing, Satellite}, issn = {685}, author = {Simon Ramsey and Karin Reinke and Nur Trihantoro and Simon Jones and Chermelle Engel} } @conference {bnh-8275, title = {Long-range fire weather predictions developed and service established as new capability for Australia}, booktitle = {AFAC21}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, publisher = {AFAC}, organization = {AFAC}, address = {Online}, abstract = {

Factors providing long-range predictability for this system include the pre-existing moisture content of vegetation (using agricultural drought measures), large-scale modes of variability (e.g., El Nino), sudden stratospheric warmings (e.g., polar vortex variations contributed to the severity of the 2019/20 summer) and long-term climate change.

The guidance products were designed with a user-driven approach, based on strong end-user engagement throughout the project. These long-range predictions are part of broader efforts to deliver seamless guidance over a wide range of time scales. Fire weather predictions and data are now available in a consistent form for long-range predictions out to several months ahead, historical records back to 1950 and future climate projections throughout this century. A seamless service across different time scales is intended to enhance planning capabilities from short to long time-scales, leading to enhanced resilience and disaster risk reduction for natural hazards. These fire weather outlooks have been described as a step change in improved capability, developed through user engagement, including for supporting risk reduction in prescribed burning and operational planning requirements.

}, keywords = {Capability, Fire, predictions, weather}, url = {https://www.afac.com.au/events/proceedings/06-10-21/article/long-range-fire-weather-predictions-developed-and-service-established-as-new-capability-for-australia}, author = {Dowdy, Andrew J} } @article {bnh-8013, title = {A method for assessing building codes for natural hazard resilience}, number = {612}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Building codes regulate the design and materials of structures in the built environment, often in parallel with related processes such as land use planning. Building codes establish a standard of certainty that structures achieve pre-established levels of safety and health. In parallel, building codes are potentially able to contribute to natural hazard resilience, although ongoing improvements are needed to account for a variety of emerging challenges and insights from new research.

This summary outlines a generalised method to assess building codes, their application in New South Wales, and related mechanisms in terms of their contribution to natural hazard resilience, identifying areas for improvement and further research. It ensures that methods used and findings are reported in language and formats easily accessible by a wider audience of emergency management, land use planning and design practitioners.

}, keywords = {assessing, building, codes, method, natural hazard, nsw, resilience}, issn = {612}, author = {Alan March and Crystal Legacy and Georgia Warren-Myers and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-7839, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fire, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts - final project report}, number = {646}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, titled Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts, was a partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology, and examined the use of detailed land surface models, satellite measurements and ground-based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. This project addresses a fundamental limitation in our ability to prepare for fires, floods and heatwaves and is directly linked to pre-event planning as well as forecasting of events. The research conducted in the present project solely focuses on the application of soil and land dryness/moisture in the context of fire danger and fire management practices. The lack of focus on flood and heatwave is circumstantial. The research priorities were set and driven by the requirements of the project end-users, all of them from various fire management agencies across Australia. Hence, the end-use interest was solely on the application of the research in fire management. Nevertheless, it is worth pointing that there is a substantial amount of research literature which establishes the importance of soil moisture in flood and heatwave prediction and applications.

Currently, landscape dryness for fire management is estimated in Australia using simple empirical models developed in the 1960s. The most prominent of those used in Australia are the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the Soil Dryness Index (SDI). An initial study performed as part of this project suggested that analyses of soil moisture can be improved by using physics-based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation.

JASMIN prototype

To address this, the present project developed a standalone prototype land surface modelling system, called Joint UK Land Environment Simulator based Australian Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN) to produce daily soil moisture analyses at 5km resolution and 4 soil layers. Verification against ground-based soil moisture observations shows that this prototype system is significantly more skilful than both KBDI and SDI.

Though JASMIN can supplement many applications that require accurate soil moisture estimates, the biggest beneficiary of this new system will be the fire agencies. The soil moisture estimate from the new system provides a robust alternative to the methods currently used in fire prediction. This is evident from the verifications performed against in situ measurements. KBDI and SDI show large errors over regions where they are used operationally. KBDI, for example, has a large wet bias over southern regions that could undermine fire danger ratings. The JASMIN system can produce reliable soil moisture information over a wide range of land-use types, which potentially extends its applicability to other fields as well. Also, JASMIN is shown to have good skill for both surface and deep soil horizons.

JASMIN calibration

To promote an effective adoption of JASMIN in current operational practices, calibration methods were applied to the native JASMIN soil moisture datasets. The key aim of these methods was to calibrate JASMIN outputs in units of moisture excess to moisture deficit values that range from 0{\textendash}200, as required by McArthur{\textquoteright}s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI; McArthur, 1967). The calibration offers a simple, faster and cost-effective way to make significant upgrades to the existing operational systems used by fire and other environmental agencies.

The calibration methods applied were minimum-maximum matching, mean-variance matching, and cumulative distribution function matching. The selection of these calibration methods was based on the potential end-user requirement, whether that is to simply replace the legacy systems with a new product with high skill (e.g., minimum-maximum method), or to replace the existing system that captures the temporal variations better while preserving the climatology of the older system (e.g., mean-variance and cumulative distribution function matching). The latter could be useful if existing operating systems are already tuned to offset the bias in the current soil moisture deficit methods.

Improving high spatial resolution mapping

This project also aimed to improve applications such as fire danger mapping that may require soil moisture information at higher spatial resolution due to the large spatial variability of soil moisture in the landscape. A common practice to overcome such a problem is to employ downscaling methods to increase the spatial scale of the product. Recent advances in optical remote sensing have allowed researchers to use different remote sensing products that reflect soil moisture variability as ancillary information. A method based on a {\textquotedblleft}universal triangle{\textquotedblright} concept is used in several previous studies, which establishes a relationship between soil moisture, vegetation index, and surface radiant temperature from optical remote sensing. This project applied three downscaling methodologies: two based on regression and one based on a physics-based approach.

Results from the downscaling methodologies indicate that it is feasible to improve the spatial resolution of JASMIN using all three disaggregating algorithms and preserve the general large-scale spatial structure seen in JASMIN soil moisture estimates. However, the seasonal means obtained at 1 km show that each product displays characteristic soil moisture spatial variability at fine scales. Results from the comparison with ground-based soil moisture measurements indicate that there is no significant degradation of the bias in the three methods when moving to higher spatial resolution.

Predicting live fuel moisture content

Prediction of the moisture status in live fuels is an important gap in current fire management practices which, if filled, can potentially be useful for spatial and temporal assessment of landscape dryness. The final objective of the project was thus to explore the relationship between soil moisture and live fuel moisture content (LFMC) using the datasets from JASMIN and Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS), respectively. The analysis carried out indicates that soil moisture is a leading indicator of LFMC. This project developed a simple yet skilful model to predict live fuel moisture content for the whole of Australia.

The key variable is the 0-350 mm layer soil moisture derived from the JASMIN system. The modelling strategy pursued consists of a linear combination of two sub-models: one to capture the annual cycle and one to capture the daily variations. A time function represents the LFMC annual cycle model. The daily deviations in LFMC are captured by using a linear regression model with 14-day lagged daily deviations in soil moisture as the input. The daily changes in soil moisture are computed by deviations from its annual cycle.

When evaluated over 60 sites, the approach returned an average R2 of 0.64 with normalised root mean square error values of \<25\% at all sites. As researchers were employing a gridded soil moisture product, this strategy facilitates the reconstruction of past events, as well as data gap filling. The lag of 14 days implies a lead time of 14 days for predicting the LFMC. This has significant operational implications, as daily variations in LFMC can be predicted using soil moisture information from JASMIN on a national scale.

JASMIN is currently run as a prototype research system, with soil moisture analysis done only near-real-time. However, JASMIN can be extended to produce both real-time analysis and forecasts. The prognostic mode can provide soil moisture forecasts for up to 10 days. This means a maximum lead time of 24 days can be achieved by utilising soil moisture forecasts.

JASMIN utilisation

A key focus of the project from its inception was to create pathways for easier utilisation of the project deliverables. This is reflected in both the scientific and technical approaches adopted in this project. For example, the calibration of JASMIN to KBDI and SDI was done to facilitate the ready utilisation of JASMIN in the existing operational system. A total of 8 calibrated JASMIN soil dryness products were developed and made available through the Bureau of Meteorology{\textquoteright}s THREDDS server. The JASMIN soil moisture in volumetric units at 4 layers are also provided via the THREDDS server for interested parties to evaluate. The volumetric soil moisture fields from the top two JASMIN layers (0-100 mm and 100-350 mm) are available via AFMS as well.

The datasets on both THREDDS and AFMS are updated near-real-time. There is a continuing interest in the end-user community in utilising JASMIN for various fire management applications. In that respect, JASMIN has been assessed in the Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions study on tall wet forest fuel availability. Tasmania Parks and Wildlife has also been using JASMIN as a decision-support tool to restrict the use of open fires in national parks. Also, JASMIN data were updated specifically to assist with Tasmanian decision-making for 2018-19 seasonal bushfire assessment workshop and preseason consultative committee on fire weather.

The JASMIN system can produce reliable soil moisture estimates over a wide range of land-use types and can support many applications that require accurate soil moisture information. However, there is still scope for improvements to the JASMIN system, whether it be the skill or the scale.

An immediate focus could be the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the skill of JASMIN. Data assimilation allows uncertainties in land surface model soil moisture to be offset to some extent by routinely updating the hydrological conditions using the information provided by observations on state variables used by land surface models. The assimilation of satellite observations is shown to improve the model soil moisture state. In that respect, the use of NASA{\textquoteright}s land information system (LIS) is being evaluated at the Bureau. The LIS is a complex framework that uses extensible interfaces to allow the incorporation of new domains, land surface models, land surface parameters, meteorological inputs, data assimilation and optimisation algorithms. The extensible nature of these interfaces, and the component style specifications of the system, allow rapid prototyping and development of new applications. The JASMIN system can be incorporated within LIS to facilitate the assimilation of various observation types. Further, it can be leveraged to run JASMIN with an enhanced spatial resolution, desirably at 1 km.

}, keywords = {Floods, forecasts, heatwaves, land dryness, measures, mitigation, severe fire}, issn = {646}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {bnh-8203, title = {Multi-hazard review of the comprehensiveness of Victorian urban planning for disaster risk reduction}, number = {700}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The research undertook a multi-hazard review of the comprehensiveness of Victorian urban planning for natural hazard disaster risk reduction.\  It compared ideal approaches and outcomes with current processes, treatments, and systems.

The project focussed on the Planning and Environment Act (1987) (The Act) and the Victoria Planning Provisions (VPPs), in parallel with key supporting documents and processes.

At a high level, the VPPs set out some strong underpinnings for action to address natural hazard risks.\  Certain hazards, notably Bushfire and Flood are dealt with quite comprehensively. However comprehensive integration into the VPPs across various hazards and treatments is incomplete. Key findings are as follows.

}, keywords = {comprehensiveness, Disaster risk reduction, Multi-hazard, review, urban planning, Victoria}, issn = {700}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-7810, title = {North Australian bushfire and natural hazard training - final project report}, number = {644}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report provides an overview, including the north Australian bushfire and natural hazard ({\textquoteleft}BNH{\textquoteright}) context and the social background for the North Australian Bushfire and Natural Hazard Training project.

The project has proceeded slowly (five years) and has changed dramatically as a result of engaging in Participatory Action Research ({\textquoteleft}PAR{\textquoteright}). This approach to researching the training needs of residents of remote north Australian communities encouraged these residents to participate in the framing of the enquiry as well as the generation of answers and training materials.

Several desktop reviews were undertaken during the project. These examined the existing BNH training offerings as well as the opportunities that existed at the time for Indigenous community members to obtain leadership training. The reviews found that where training existed it largely omitted Indigenous perspectives, particularly in terms of strategic overviews and planning. For leadership training, it was found that where remote communities were able to access training for BNH it did not focus on leadership and that which focused on leadership did not include BNH management.

In response to the views of project participants and the reviews, the project developed a set of training units that, taken together, drew together the essential elements of Indigenous and non-Indigenous BNH training in a Vocational Education and Training ({\textquoteleft}VET{\textquoteright}) style program. The program does however modify the {\textquoteleft}standard{\textquoteright} VET approach through the provision of flexible temporal arrangements for training and assessing. This need was identified as the project recognized the requirement to train {\textquoteleft}on Country [1]{\textquoteright} and to use local knowledge-holders in the preparations for and delivery of the training.

Nine formal {\textquoteleft}engagements{\textquoteright} were held over the life of the project, including workshops and three training pilots. In each pilot, different components of the ten training units were presented and refined. A detailed and culturally appropriate evaluation was undertaken of each pilot and the feedback was incorporated into the next {\textquoteleft}round{\textquoteright} of pilot training.

10 training units have been developed by the project. Some of these are entirely new while others are adaptations of existing training, albeit adapted sufficient to warrant a new unit descriptor.

The 10 units have not yet been subject to National Accreditation, but are designed to map onto the Standards for VET Accredited Courses as set out by the Australian Skills Quality Authority. Each unit has been framed in terms of {\textquoteleft}Elements and Performance Criteria{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Evidence Guide{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Requiired Skills and Knowledge{\textquoteright} and a {\textquoteleft}Range Statement{\textquoteright}.


[1] The capitalised term {\textquoteleft}Country{\textquoteright} is used throughout to indicate the entity which extends well beyond the English term for {\textquoteleft}nation{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}landscape{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}rural{\textquoteright}. For the Indigenous people who participated in this project {\textquoteleft}Country{\textquoteright} refers an entity which transcends physical, moral, spiritual and metaphysical realms and of which they are an integral part. Country is at all times the ground on which one stands but also inside a person (cf. Holmes \& Janpajimpa 2013: 18). It is something one can be taken off, but can never be removed from within.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, natural hazard, north australia, training}, issn = {644}, author = {Sutton, S} } @article {bnh-7964, title = {NSW Mid North Coast flood impact research}, number = {659}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

On March 18, 2021, an extreme rainfall event kicked off, resulting in severe flooding in the Mid North Coast of New South Wales. 18,000 people were evacuated, including 1,000 flood rescues. Flooding also impacted the North Coast, Hunter, Western Sydney, South Coast, Central West, and North West Regions of NSW. Flooding was also experienced in Southeast Queensland. The focus of this briefing is on flood impacts experienced on the NSW Mid North Coast.

Overview

On March 24, Risk Frontiers, with assistance from the BNHCRC, deployed a survey team to the NSW Mid North Coast region to observe and report on significant flooding in the area. Areas surveyed included, Bulahdelah, Taree, Wingham, Port Macquarie, North Haven, Laurieton, and Dunbogan. In addition to measuring flood depths and recording noteworthy damages to belongings and infrastructure, the team spoke with residents, business owners, and rescue personnel (Rural Fire Service, NSW Fire and Rescue, and State Emergency Services). Discussions covered evacuation, emergency response and communication, community resilience, and the insurability of their homes.

A couple of key issues emerged during the investigation. The first was insurance affordability in areas that were clearly at risk of flooding. Some residents and business owners we spoke with cited quotes for policies covering flood ranging from $5k - $30k per year. Our survey indicates that the full extent of damage will not be evident in claims data due to the low rates of insurance as a lot of individuals had chosen to remain uninsured due to the prohibitive costs quoted for them. Disaster mitigation needs to be considered in these areas to assist with insurance affordability.

Another common concern expressed was the lack of warning and mitigative action. For example, some residents had not considered sandbagging. Residents claimed they were either misinformed or warned too late, and then felt aspects of the process to recover were unclear.

}, keywords = {Flood, Impact, Mid North Coast, New South Wales, quick response, research}, issn = {659}, author = {Steve George and Salom{\'e} Hussein and R Crompton and Thomas Mortlock} } @article {bnh-7889, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes {\textendash} final project report}, number = {648}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire managers often have multiple objectives for a given prescribed burn centred around risk reduction and conservation of biodiversity. The ability to predict the effects of prescribed burning on the capacity of forests to deliver ecosystem services such as clean air, carbon sequestration, and a reliable and high-quality supply of water is becoming increasingly more important.

The body of research detailed in this Synthesis Report represents a concerted effort to understand the effect of prescribed burning on water quantity and carbon losses and gains in forested ecosystems in south-eastern Australia. We collected empirical data from over 100 sampling sites treated with a recent prescribed burn. The sampling strategy we used was consistent over time with target sampling variables included for estimation of overstorey and understorey biomass and direct sampling of surface and near surface fuel loads. Site selection was stratified to accommodate as much site variability as possible and to take full advantage of prescribed burn plans.

Data collected from the field was used in a variety of modelling assignments to capture the effect of prescribed burning on changes in water availability and transformation of carbon pools. Using a mixture of models and empirical sampling and analysis, we showed that there are few risks to long-term carbon and water cycles when prescribed burning is conducted on cycles of 10 or so years. Critical to this analysis is the frequency of bushfires {\textendash} if the inter-fire interval of unplanned fires becomes short (e.g., \<50 years) then ecosystem losses of carbon and reductions in water yield are likely to become semi-permanent features.

Our modelling endeavours ranged from relatively complex process-based models describing water and carbon balances through to simple response surface models. By exploring the transformation of carbon pools in surface fuels during prescribed burning, we developed robust yet simple-to-use models for predicting changes in total carbon and biomass in this fuel fraction. The novel application of FullCAM, a well-established model used for carbon accounting, was tested for its ability to incorporate often subtle changes in forest growth and carbon transformation associated with prescribed burning. We found this model to be relatively sensitive and recommend it to fire managers for applications such as estimation of carbon emissions. Based on our key findings, we advocate for continued research and evidence-based application of prescribed burning as a valuable land management approach.

Data assembled from peer-reviewed publications and researchers worldwide was mined for changing trends in publications concerning prescribed burning, global patterns of litterfall and standing litter, and water use efficiency of forests. These summative studies informed our research direction and chartered our progress.

A considerable number of student projects have been supported during the course of this project contributing to the training of the next generation of researchers and land managers.

}, keywords = {burning regimes, carbon, fuel reduction, optimisation, vegetation, water}, issn = {648}, author = {Bell, Tina and Adams, Mark A. and Mathias Neumann and Danica Parnell and David Pepper and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-7890, title = {Optimising post-disaster recovery interventions in Australia - final project report}, number = {649}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australians are all too familiar with disasters arising from natural hazards, such as bushfires, cyclones, and floods. With climate change, we face the possibility of more frequent and intense natural hazards where they occur as in new and unexpected places.

As we enter an uncertain decade, we find ourselves increasingly asking: What does a disaster-resilient Australia look like? How can we help our most vulnerable Australian communities endure the cumulative effects of frequent disasters? Amid tightening fiscal budgets, how can we make the right policy choices for our communities and economy to prosper in this new reality?

Answering these questions requires deep thinking in order to be able to support our communities, businesses, and the broader economy, and help them become more disaster resilient; to not only adapt to a {\textquotedblleft}new normal{\textquotedblright} but thrive in a changing climate. From a policy perspective, this becomes more pertinent when we consider that the average annual total economic costs of natural disasters of Australia are forecast to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017).

This project has estimated the impact of four disasters in recent Australian history on income of individuals residing in disaster-hit areas. By defining individuals{\textquoteright} ability to return to their pre-disaster income levels as economic resilience, we focused on the following case studies: The 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires, the 2009 Toodyay bushfires, the 2013 Tropical Cyclone Oswald, and the 2010-11 Queensland floods. Through real-life case studies, our research helps illustrate how these events{\textemdash}of different types, localities, and scales{\textemdash}impact and ripple through communities and the broader economy over time.\ 

We have employed the difference-in-differences modelling approach to pinpoint the income changes due to the disasters. That is, we compared the income levels of individuals living in the disaster-hit areas (treatment group) with incomes of those who resided in comparable areas that were not directly hit by the disaster (control group). The control group provides us with the income path that would have been expected for the disaster-hit population had the disasters not happened, and thus enables us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) in the disaster-hit areas. To identify the economic vulnerabilities, we analysed in detail the income changes with respect to individuals{\textquoteright} demographic attributes and sectors of employment. Our primary dataset is the Australian Longitudinal Census Dataset of 2006, 2011 and 2016, which includes 5\% representative sample of the Australian population and provides data on a range of our economic, demographic, and sectoral variables.

The research has found that the extent of the economic impact of disasters on individuals{\textquoteright} income depends on the type, intensity, and location of the disaster. This finding departs from most policy assumptions, which tend to put all the disasters into the same basket when designing relief and recovery programs.

However, there are also common vulnerable groups across different disasters. We found that certain sectors, such as agriculture and accommodation and food services (of which tourism is part) tend to be the most adversely affected sectors across all types, locality and severity of disasters.

An additional clear insight obtained in this research is that {\textquoteleft}economic smallness{\textquoteright} is a point of vulnerability. In particular, low income earners, small-business owners and part-time workers are more likely to lose income following a disaster. Middle and high-income earners, full-time workers and owners of larger businesses are far less likely to lose income; indeed, they might even earn more.

Part of the reason why the {\textquoteleft}economically smaller{\textquoteright} demographic groups are vulnerable to disasters is that they are employed in disaster-sensitive sectors. Thus, the sectoral vulnerability is translated into demographic vulnerability.

We also found that time frame for recovery matters. For example, following the 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires, low-income individuals and the female workforce experienced lower income levels that persisted until 2016. This contrasts with high-income earners, who despite having lost income in the short term, were able to bounce back to their original income trajectory by 2016. Even though it is intuitive to think that economic resilience levels could be different across different demographic and sectoral groups, this project brings this intuition to the fore, and documents exactly what those less resilient groups are, as well as the associated income losses (or gains).

Overall, this research has revealed disaster costs that would not normally be identified by the direct damage estimates. For example, the direct total (tangible and intangible) damages of the 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires were $7 billion (Deloitte Access Economics 2016). However, we found that, following the Black Saturday bushfires, agricultural employees who lived in the fire-ravaged areas lost an average of A$8,000 in annual income for the following two years. Employees in the accommodation and food services industries lost an average of A$5,000 per annum. The indirect loss estimates are typically bypassed in the wake of disasters, as the policy community typically focuses on the direct damage estimates when assessing the economic costs of disasters.

This research has also demonstrated that the burden of lost income due to the disasters is not borne equally. That is, the income gap routinely increased after disasters. For example, following the 2010-11 Queensland floods, the difference between those on low and middle incomes in the\ Brisbane River Catchment area\ increased by about $7,000 a year. This meant that the poor became poorer following disasters in Australia. In addition, female workers tend to lose income after some disasters compared to their male counterparts. Moreover, the income divide persisted in the medium term after some disasters. This finding of rising inequality is novel for Australia and was not documented previously.

In an earlier phase of this research program, during 2014-15, we studied the nation-wide impacts of floods and bushfires and their effects on economic sectors in Australia. This research used national accounts data from six Australian states for the period 1978-2014, and explored whether and how floods and bushfires as well as extreme weather (i.e. extreme precipitation and temperature) impacted the course of sectoral activity in the overall Australian economy.\  We found that Australia{\textquoteright}s sectoral output is sensitive to floods {\textendash} Australia lost more than two years{\textquoteright} worth of agricultural output during the period 1978-2014 due to floods. Bushfires, on the other hand, do not affect overall output, though they exhibit sectoral effects. The project Optimising Post-Disaster Recovery Interventions in Australia complements this earlier research by studying individuals{\textquoteright} income changes through four case studies.

The policy implications of this research are clear and important. Decision makers need to have a more disaggregated view to understand the economic impact of disasters. Our findings show that socioeconomic vulnerabilities are concentrated in certain demographic groups and sectors of the economy. In addition, both the poor and female employees exhibit lower economic resilience to disasters, in that they may not be fully able to return to their pre-disaster income trajectory in the medium-term. This highlights the potential for disasters to widen income inequality over time.

In a nutshell, this research suggests that policymakers need to better understand the socioeconomics of disasters and formulate public policies to better distribute scarce budgets and resources towards vulnerable socioeconomic groups and employment sectors that are more sensitive to disasters.

In terms of utilisation, the project has focused on generating awareness and provoking thoughts among the policy and wider community regarding economic effects of disasters on individuals. The project has produced four research reports pertaining to each case study, along with four policy briefs that summarized each report. The project also produced demographic profiling analyses for each disaster analysed. The findings from these four case studies were disseminated to a national audience through a webinar in August 2020, and the feedback received was overwhelmingly positive. The project has also published two articles in {\textquoteleft}News and Views: Australian Journal of Emergency Management{\textquoteright} and was featured in two articles in the Fire Australia magazine, which helped share the results with the emergency management sector. Finally, our demographic profiling analysis on the VIC Black Saturday bushfires and associated findings have been cited and discussed in the recent CSIRO Report to the Prime Minister Morrison on climate and disaster resilience (CSIRO, 2020).

The project has also made strong media engagement about its findings. These media outputs included, two articles in The Conversation, several radio interviews on the economic impact of bushfires (including two at ABC Radio National {\textquotedblleft}The Money{\textquotedblright} program with Richard Aedy, ABC North Queensland, South Korean eFM), a number of national newspaper articles, quotations and citations, several media releases made by the media team at Deakin University.

Looking ahead, we expect to disseminate our research reports and policy briefs more widely to public and private organisations in Australia. We also expect to disseminate our findings through media and policy engagement in the next bushfire season to create further awareness and provoke thoughts on how Australia can enhance the economic resilience of its communities. The project team is currently involved with new projects on the health and wellbeing analysis of Black Saturday bushfires and Queensland Floods as direct outcomes of the present project. Finally, we will be progressing a number of working papers that have greatly benefited from and been informed by our BNHCRC research program methodology and learnings.

To conclude, we believe that this project is the end of the beginning rather than beginning of the end regarding potential research projects in the economics of disasters in Australia.

}, keywords = {economics, interventions, optimising, post-disaster, recovery}, issn = {649}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-8079, title = {Positive mental health in young adult emergency service personnel}, number = {675}, year = {2021}, month = {06/2021}, pages = {107}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Overview

Fire and emergency service personnel, particularly those who volunteer, contribute in innumerable ways to their communities and to Australian society more broadly. Engaging in such a role brings the benefits of connecting with like-minded others and a valued sense of contributing to the community, benefiting mental health and wellbeing (Son \& Wilson, 2012). Concurrently, however, fire and emergency service personnel are more likely than the general population to be exposed to potentially traumatic events (PTE), are at higher risk for developing mental health conditions, and are at two-fold increased risk of suicidal ideation (Beyond Blue Ltd., 2018). Therefore, maintaining good mental health for personnel is increasingly recognised as an integral part of the sustainability of the fire and emergency services. Maximising the productivity and retention of younger early-career volunteers is particularly important, given that over half of the current volunteer force across many emergency services (ambulance, fire and rescue, state emergency service) exceeds 55 years of age (Beyond Blue Ltd., 2018). To ensure the sustainability of the fire and emergency services broadly and the volunteer force more specifically, recruitment and retention of younger volunteers is imperative.

While numerous individual, social and organisational factors have been identified as contributing to mental health and, thus, the sustainability of volunteering, mental health support frameworks, along with research and resources for the mental health of fire and emergency service personnel have focused on outcomes across the age range and length of service (Varker et al., 2018), with limited consideration given to developmental factors that may impact initial uptake and engagement. In particular, emerging adulthood (the period between ages 16{\textendash}25 years) is recognised as a specific phase of development that has its own particular constellation of psychosocial and demographic correlates (e.g., identity exploration and openness to possibility; Arnett, 2000). Australian young people tend to access support for mental health difficulties through different means than traditional face-to-face mental health services or programs, including from peers, parents and sourcing information regarding mental health online (Mission Australia \& Black Dog Institute, 2017). Uptake of formal mental health programs (e.g., school counselling) can also be limited (Rickwood et al., 2007). Thus, a {\textquoteleft}one size fits all{\textquoteright} approach to mental health across emergency service personnel may not be acceptable to the younger adult cohort. Of concern, younger volunteers were reported in the AtC study into the mental health of fire and emergency responders in Australia to have higher levels of self-reported psychological distress and lower levels of resilience than older volunteers (Beyond Blue Ltd., 2018). Early intervention is recognised as an essential approach for preventing and minimising mental health conditions (McGorry \& Mei, 2018).

The present research project was developed in response to a call to action from agencies that the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authority Council develop data-driven approaches for supporting mental health, aligned with best practice guidelines and targeted specifically at young fire and emergency service volunteers, supported by practical guidance to agencies for implementing these approaches.

Project Aims and Objectives

The overall aim of the project was to understand what can be done at an individual, local and organisation-wide level to minimise the short- and long-term impacts of potentially traumatising events and to support and promote good mental health and wellbeing for young adult (16{\textendash}25-year-old) volunteers in emergency service organisations.

Specific objectives for the project were as follows:

  1. To summarise the international and national evidence concerning the prevalence of mental health symptoms and/or psychological distress in young fire and emergency service volunteers and individual, social and organisational risk and protective factors for mental health.
  2. To create a summary of self-reported mental health and wellbeing in the context of risk and protective factors among young Australian emergency service personnel using data from the Answering the Call: National Health and Wellbeing Study of Police and Emergency Services and the Metropolitan Fire Service Health and Wellbeing Study.
  3. To develop an understanding of the existing programs and services utilised by young emergency services volunteers to support their mental health and wellbeing following a significant Australian disaster (the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfires) and during a worldwide pandemic, as well as their perceived usefulness.
  4. To develop an understanding of the current psychosocial safety climate within the Australian emergency service sector as it relates to young fire and emergency service personnel, as well as the mental health programs and supports available to and utilised by these young adults.
  5. To develop an understanding of the young emergency services volunteers{\textquoteright} perspective of perceived facilitators and barriers to accessing relevant mental health services both within and outside the organisation and appropriate sources and type of information that are most likely to be accessed by those volunteers.
  6. To develop a Wellbeing Framework for fire and emergency service organisations to support young adult volunteers{\textquoteright} mental health and wellbeing.
  7. To develop a plain language information guide for supporting mental health and wellbeing targeted at the young adult volunteer cohort.

This report presents information and outcomes for these objectives and provides recommendations for agency-based implementation of the proposed Wellbeing Framework for Young Fire and Emergency Service Volunteers. The outputs of this project are informed by data from this cohort and are aligned with the available evidence for best practice in relevant contexts. It is hoped that the framework and its associated implementation guide will assist agencies in providing informed psychosocial support for the mental health of their young volunteers, thereby contributing to the sustainability of the volunteer service among fire and emergency service agencies. Please note that key terms used throughout the report are defined in the Glossary (Chapter 12).\ 

}, keywords = {emergency service, mental health, personnel, volunteers, young adult}, isbn = {978-0-6452058-0-0}, issn = {675}, author = {Amanda Taylor and Jane Cocks and Sharon Lawn and David Lawrence and Wavne Rikkers and Louise Roberts and Maureen Ashe and Alexander McFarlane and Rachel Roberts and Paul Delfabbro and Holly Caruso and Miranda Van Hooff} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8319, title = { Precarious places, precarious knowledges: Interrogating epistemic inclusion and integration in Disaster Risk Reduction education}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, pages = {341}, school = {The University of Sydney}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Natural and human-made hazards threaten societies. This is the rationale for the United Nations{\textquoteright} invitation to governments to align their policies and national strategies to the global framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Policies for DRR stipulate the inclusion of different perspectives and their integration to the global framework towards building a culture of resilience against disasters. While there have been varying levels of response to this call, less attention had been directed towards a critical reflection of the epistemological features of {\textquoteleft}knowledge{\textquoteright} that undergird DRR, including its expressions in education. In this doctoral dissertation, I engage the lenses of decolonial thinking and practice and critical pedagogy of place in examining cognitive justice; I do so through investigation of the rhetoric of epistemic inclusion and integration in the policies and practices for DRR in cyclone-exposed communities in Australia, the Philippines, and Vanuatu.

With an investigative structure patterned after the comparative case study approach, I followed the biography of DRR policies and their inflections across multiple sites, scales, and time frames. I engaged in ethnographic techniques in conjunction with layered data collection methods, including rhetorical policy analysis, interviews, and participant observation. The insights from the research showed that as the rhetoric of DRR policies endeavoured for inclusion, the texts also contracted, as {\textquoteleft}knowledge{\textquoteright} ultimately becomes delineated by {\textquoteleft}science{\textquoteright} and as fitting the DRR framework. Place-based knowledges are marginally involved in both policies and practices, and only as an accessory, even as they are ostensibly considered valuable and necessary. The concluding discussion offers recommendations towards equitable and effective approaches to disaster education - a valuable resource in DRR and disaster education governance at the local, national, and international levels.

}, keywords = {cognitive justice, comparative education, critical pedagogy of place, decoloniality, Disaster Risk Reduction education, rhetorical policy analysis}, doi = {https://hdl.handle.net/2123/26891}, url = {https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/handle/2123/26891}, author = {Liberty Pascua} } @article {bnh-8235, title = {Preparing emergency services for operations in a climate-challenged world - summary report}, number = {689}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

EMS agencies are learning to adapt and be prepared for futures where the changing climate will influence the services they deliver, and how they deliver those services. This research project was designed to help the sector to better prepare for these futures and take action to more quickly adapt as it unfolds, and importantly take action to shape the future in ways that reduce the risks of the hazards ahead.

In 2020 and 2021 this research project, under the stewardship of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, collaborated with a select group of leaders and professionals (a scenario team) from across the Australia and New Zealand EMS. The research project was completed in three integrated parts:

  1. A synthesis of the literature conducted by RMIT on the implications of climate change for emergency services operation
  2. A series of participatory workshops with the project scenario team to develop an explorative and adaptable methodology that is then used to create transformative scenarios (2021-2035)
  3. Develop EMS guidance for using transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world for planning and decision-making in EMS.

By involving key people from across the EMS in the construction and application of the scenarios (the scenario team), this project has helped to build the sector{\textquoteright}s understanding and capabilities in scenario development and in scenario use and application. The project has not only strengthened the scenario thinking capability of the participants across a range of agencies, but secured positive support and endorsement from the scenario team who can continue to share and apply the project methods across the EMS.

A range of documents and resources are available from www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/climatescenarios. These include a workbook, and a research and methodology pack:

Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world {\textendash} workbook:

Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world {\textendash} research and methodology:\ 

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {689}, author = {Stephen Atkinson and Geoff Brown and Russell Fisher and Zoe Fitzgerald and Lauren Rickards and Adriana Keating} } @article {bnh-8193, title = {Principles for enhanced collaboration between land and emergency management agencies and Indigenous peoples - green paper}, number = {701}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Several trends have recently converged to create considerable interest in enhancing collaboration in land and emergency management between Government agencies and First Nations peoples in southern Australia. These trends include: a growing number of grassroots First Nations peoples cultural fire and land management projects; increased media interest in these projects and their role in cultural revitalisation; increased policy focus within land and emergency management agencies on reconciliation, collaboration and partnership with First Nations peoples; as well as a range of findings from 2019-2020 bushfire season inquiries that recommend greater collaboration [e.g., 2]. Considering these trends, it should be noted both that there are multiple examples of successful collaboration or partnership relationships between government land and emergency management agencies and First Nations peoples across Australia and that, nonetheless, such forms of collaboration or partnership are not necessarily desired by all First Nations peoples.

To date there is a relative lack of academic research on this topic, however several successful case studies of the reintroduction of cultural fire management in southern Australia have been documented [3-7]. In 2021, state and territory governments across southern Australia were in various stages of engaging with First Nations peoples, with collaborative fire management policy ranging from whole-of-government reform for First Nations peoples{\textquoteright} self-determination to piecemeal ad hoc policy with limited resource allocation (Appendix 1). A review of academic and grey literature revealed that there is a range of benefits associated with contemporary First Nations peoples{\textquoteright} cultural fire and land management in southern Australia, including cultural, environmental, economic, wildfire management, political/self-determination, social, health and wellbeing benefits (Appendix 2).\  However, there are many barriers to a more widespread application of cultural fire and land management here and in other contexts (Appendix 3). Despite widespread goodwill and optimism, the revival of cultural fire and land management is highly contingent and generally relies upon routine persuasive labor and fragile intercultural diplomacy rather than robust policies and resourcing commitments.

}, keywords = {agencies, collaboration, Emergency management, indigenous, land management, principles}, issn = {701}, author = {Michelle McKemey and Timothy Neale and Oliver Costello} } @article {bnh-8206, title = {Recovery Capitals (ReCap): navigating the complexities of disaster recovery - final project report}, number = {673}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disaster recovery is a complex process, requiring support from a range of people and organisations after an event. For the past decade, the four recovery environments (built, social, economic and natural) have been used to recognise this complexity and frame recovery efforts. However, recovery efforts often remain siloed, with inadequate attention paid to the interconnectedness between environments and the particular nuances across the social environment. There is a need for accessible, engaging and evidence-based resources to provide guidance for how to apply key recovery principles in practice.

The Recovery Capitals (ReCap) project aimed to promote wellbeing after disasters by examining the disaster recovery evidence base and producing a set of resources to help guide recovery efforts. It was a collaboration between the University of Melbourne, Massey University (Aotearoa New Zealand), Australian Red Cross, and other researchers, government and non-government agencies and organisations from across Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand.

The ReCap project began with an examination of the evidence base for recovery risk and protective factors using a\  Community Capitals Framework (Emery, Fey and Flora, 2006). It focused on how seven forms of capital - natural, built, political, cultural, human, social, financial {\textendash} can influence wellbeing after disasters, and how they can influence each other. Through discussions between researchers and end-users, this was then adapted to develop the Recovery Capitals Framework (RCF). The RCF highlights the interconnectedness between recovery capitals, multiple dimensions regarding people, place and time and values of diversity and equity. Key messages were distilled down from the initial evidence-mapping to simplify findings and determine practically oriented considerations that we presented in a set of resources. These spanned a range of formats to cater to different users{\textquoteright} needs and included contributions from artists and graphic designers across Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand to produce visually engaging material.

The ReCap resources serve a range of purposes and are designed to guide disaster recovery efforts across different community contexts. The resources can be used to build capacity rapidly after an event, as well as in pre-event recovery planning to enhance resilience prior to disasters. They can be used in a wide range of disaster contexts, and by the wide range of people engaged in disaster recovery including policy makers, {\textquoteleft}on-the-ground{\textquoteright} staff and volunteers, including those whose core work is unrelated to disasters (e.g., teachers, healthcare workers and community organisations). The ReCap resources have also been tailored to the sociocultural contexts of the two countries, particularly with regard to representing the cultural perspectives and experiences of Indigenous peoples in appropriate ways.

The Australian edition of Guide to Disaster Recovery Capitals (ReCap Guide) was piloted from July 2020, with a high degree of engagement in the piloting process from end-users and incorporation into recovery operations throughout key organisations in the Australian sector. The Aotearoa New Zealand version built on the Australian version and had Aotearoa New Zealand specific evidence added. In\  November 2020 it was shared informally with M{\={a}}ori stakeholders to evaluate the effectiveness of the messages, artwork and tone. Feedback elicited was then combined with findings collected from the dissemination of the Australian pilot Guide to improve the document{\textquoteright}s readability. Following a more formalised consultation process with the wider stakeholder group in Aotearoa New Zealand, the current iteration is being finalised and will be disseminated appropriately.

The updated set of ReCap resources were released in May 2021. They are available via www.recoverycapitals.org.au. Dissemination is underway within Australia and will begin in Aotearoa New Zealand in mid-2021. Current and planned applications of the resources include: guiding local government initiatives; featuring on the Victorian Government{\textquoteright}s Digital Recovery Guidelines Solution platform; informing national government resources and workshops; use in training within governments and not-for-profits; informing new research projects; and being embedded into a range of Australian Red Cross activities including the development and monitoring of recovery programs, needs assessment, updating resources and presentations including to the International Federation Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. In Aotearoa New Zealand, the National Emergency Management Agency, New Zealand Red Cross and various civil defence and emergency management agencies and workers are eager to draw on the Aotearoa New Zealand guide to utilise in training and guidance contexts.

These uses to date span a range of disaster types including bushfires, floods, and the COVID-19 pandemic. This demonstrates the significant potential of these resources to support evidence-based, holistic and inclusive future recovery efforts throughout Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand.

Project contributors are committed to continuing to develop this body of work through ongoing collaboration between researchers and end-users, including through a new Beyond Disasters Advisory Committee which will be convened by the University of Melbourne team from late 2021. This includes efforts to build disaster resilience evidence and convert it into useful tools to guide policy and practice, and to continue to focus on gaps relating to the recovery experiences of certain groups.

Another key aspect to this project was the exploration of residential mobility following disasters, which was led by the Aotearoa New Zealand team. This work built on an earlier document produced for this project on residential mobility and wellbeing. The new iteration used a case study approach to explore relevant literature on experiences of residential mobility in Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia. It described the complexity of how and why people relocated, the contextual influences that drive mobility in response and recovery and community recovery and wellbeing. The residential mobility work informed the development of the ReCap resources, in particular the focus on equity and inclusion.

}, keywords = {capitals, collaborative, disaster, evidence-based, holistic, recovery}, issn = {673}, author = {Lisa Gibbs and Phoebe Quinn and David Johnston and Denise Blake and Emily Campbell and Andrew Coghlan} } @article {bnh-8192, title = {Risk mitigation from prescribed burning in Kangaroo Island and Mount Lofty Ranges - Black Summer final report}, number = {690}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

According to the Independent Review into South Australia{\textquoteright}s 2019-20 Bushfire Season, conditions were the worst on record with fires resulting in the loss of three human lives, 196 homes, 660 vehicles, 68,000 livestock, $200m of agricultural production. Around 280,000 ha were burnt by the fires, including total or partial burning of several National Parks.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC commissioned this project as part of a larger set of Black Summer fires research projects aimed at understanding the record-breaking fire season. This project focuses on answering questions about the effectiveness of prescribed burning, also known as hazard reduction burning, in mitigating risk in two areas affected by fires during the season: The Mount Lofty Ranges east of Adelaide, and Kangaroo Island.

The key questions were:

  1. How does risk respond to treatment in Kangaroo Island, an area with little formal quantification of prescribed burning benefits and costs?
  2. What was the risk in the leadup to the 2019-20 fire season in the Mt Lofty Ranges, and how will risk change in the next five years as a result of the implied fuel reduction from the fires, as well as alternative prescribed burning strategies?

These questions were answered using a well developed methodology combining large scale fire behaviour simulations and Bayesian risk quantification. Similar analyses have been carried out for a range of case study landscapes in southern Australia as part of the Hectares to tailor-made solutions CRC project, with results available online via the end-user tool the Prescribed Burning Atlas, and also the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub{\textquoteright}s projects for the NSW Bushfire Inquiry.

We found a clear relationship between the rate of prescribed burning and area subsequently burnt by wildfire in the Kangaroo Island case study. This translated into reductions in loss of life and property as well. Risk mitigation was more sensitive to edge treatment than landscape treatment, although both reduced risk. Conversely, increasing treatment (particularly at the edge) resulted in higher areas of the landscape exposed to vegetation being burnt below its minimum tolerable fire interval.

In the Mt Lofty Ranges, we found complex patterns of risk are likely in the aftermath of the 2019-20 fires. In the absence of further wildfire events, risk of area burnt is likely to rise substantially by 2025, regardless of prescribed burning rates, with a similar result for vegetation exposed to too frequent fire. However, risk sto life, property and infrastructure are projected to remain similar to current levels.

Our work contributes to the evidence base for prescribed burning planning in South Australia, with future work potentially examining new management values (e.g. smoke health costs, new biodiversity measures) and exploring empirical relationships between prescribed burning and fire-affected area in 2019-20.

}, keywords = {black summer, kangaroo island, mitigation, Mount Lofty Ranges, Prescribed burning, risk}, issn = {690}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Anthony Rawlins and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-8190, title = {Soil and fuel moisture precursors of fire activity during the 2019-20 fire season, in comparison to previous seasons - Black Summer final report}, number = {686}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Australia experienced unprecedented bushfires during the 2019-20 fire season. Millions of hectares were burned, almost 3,000 homes were destroyed, there were 26 fatalities, and communities were exposed to smoke for extended periods.\  Low soil and vegetation moisture content due to antecedent dry conditions were a key driver of fire activity.

This report extends the work in two Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC projects to examine the 2019-20 fire season:

The national spatial datasets produced by these projects are consistent and regularly updated, separately examining soil and vegetation moisture variability, as both quantities influence fuel availability and therefore fire behaviour.

This project explores the overlaps between these data sets, as well as comparing other available data (including the Australian Landscape Water Balance) to identify atmospheric, soil and fuel moisture characteristics that contributed to fire risk during Black Summer.

Spatially coherent historical and regularly updated soil and fuel moisture datasets are critically important to fire managers so that an accurate, quantifiable assessment of potential fire activity in the landscape can be made, and this can be benchmarked against historical conditions. This information is crucial to making accurate assessments of risk and identifying situations that fall outside of historical records. One of the valuable aspects of JASMIN is that it can also be used in a predictive way and is therefore useful in anticipating soil moisture and therefore fire risk into the future in a quantitative manner on weather (short-term) and seasonal timescales. Research work in the {\textquoteright}Land Dryness{\textquoteright} project also demonstrated the capacity of soil moisture to predict future vegetation moisture content and thus more directly anticipate fire potential.

This project examines the interaction of atmospheric parameters with soil and fuel moisture content over scales of days, weeks to months, and years. Such an integration has not been undertaken previously.\ Consideration of each of these timeframes is important when making accurate assessments of fire risk. The interaction between them is also critical, as a compounding of the individual processes at the different scales occurs and this was seen in the cumulative effects of antecedent dry years, low winter rainfall and heatwaves during the Black Summer.\ 

This project examined six fire events that were nominated for investigation by the relevant jurisdictions. The fires are:

The scope of the project included examining the following:

Key findings of the project include:\ 

The findings confirm impressions of fire practitioners regarding the extremity of conditions antecedent to the 2019-20 fire season. Importantly, the datasets used in the project present a measurable and spatially coherent approach to estimating fire risk from observed and modelled soil and fuel moisture. Operational application of the datasets and approaches used here will assist in producing accurate soil and vegetation moisture forecasts for prediction of fire risk in the future.

Some immediate benefits for fire managers of this work include:

Each of the meteorological and moisture variables investigated in this study contributed useful information to an understanding of increased fire risk at each site during the 2019-20 Australian summer. Fuel moisture content provided perhaps the most immediate indicator of present fire risk. Soil moisture content permitted an assessment of future changes in fuel moisture content. Both of these integrated changes in meteorological parameters. As such, the meteorological parameters (temperature, precipitation, atmospheric moisture represented by vapour pressure) contributed an understanding of why soil and fuel moisture changed in the ways that they did and offered information on how they would change in the future. Monitoring these quantities can help fire and land managers understand how and why fire risk changes across a landscape.\ 

Future work

This project was conducted over a short time period with one objective being to establish a pathway for future research and operational application.

The following opportunities for future research with likely operational benefits have been identified:

In summary, better understanding and spatial mapping of the influence of atmospheric, soil and fuel moisture will assist fire and land managers predict fire risk, which is critical for strategic and tactical planning. Many of the recommendations could be inclusions to the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS), and therefore of immediate benefit to fire and land managers following the introduction of the AFDRS to operational use over the next two fire seasons.

}, keywords = {black summer, Fire, fire activity, fuel, moisture, precursors, soil}, issn = {686}, author = {Paul Fox-Hughes and Marta Yebra and Shukhrat Shokirov and Vinod Kumar and Dowdy, Andrew J and Pandora Hope and Mika Peace and Sugata Narsey and Francois Delage and Huqiang Zhang} } @article {bnh-8127, title = {The southwest Tasmania fires of summer 2018-2019 - a post event review capability study}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, pages = {64}, institution = {Zurich}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The summer of 2018-19 (December 2018 {\textendash} February 2019) was devastating for the Australian state of Tasmania. Fire services were overwhelmed by the multiple, large fires that burned over 200,000 ha across the western half of the island from the end of December through to early March. This report analyses these fires using the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance{\textquoteright}s Post Event Review Capability (PERC) methodology. It focuses on community and business resilience; while there have been several reviews into firefighting operations, a more systemic view of resilience is less common.

The summer 2018/19 fires officially began on 24 December 2018, in one of the hottest and driest summers on record. On 15 January 2019, 2402 dry lightning strikes hit the state, igniting 70 fires that formed into four massive fire complexes. More than 210,000 hectares burned, including 95,000 hectares in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA). Fortunately, no deaths were directly attributed to the bushfire, although an unknown number of people are believed to have died due to smoke and 114 injuries or accidents were recorded.

The event saw a significant and protracted evacuation, with the Huonville evacuation centre open for 15 days, accommodating up to 700 people daily. The lingering effects on impacted communities are still being felt. It resulted in the destruction of tourism assets, forestry resource and globally precious, protected ecosystems of the TWWHA. Smoke from the fires impacted health and the burgeoning viticulture industry in Tasmania. These impacts, along with others, have had significant flow-on effects to the already-struggling Tasmanian economy and communities.

There is much to learn from this event for Tasmania and other jurisdictions which will likely face similar events. This report outlines the risk landscape in southwest Tasmania, examining trends in climate-change charged bushfire conditions, exposure of people and assets, and their vulnerabilities. It outlines what happened during the event, with a focus on the community safety response. Direct and indirect impacts on people and economies are explored. Key insights are identified across all phases of the disaster cycle. Below we present an abridged version of the final recommendations of the study

}, keywords = {Capability, fires, post event, review, southwest, summer, Tasmania}, url = {https://www.zurich.com.au/content/dam/au-documents/news/the-southwest-tasmania-fires-of-summer-2018-2019-a-post-event-review-capability-study.pdf}, author = {Adriana Keating and John Handmer} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8095, title = {Spatial planning to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire hazards can pose significant risks at bushfire-prone urban-rural interfaces and peri-urban areas, highlighting the need to manage bushfire risk in relation to settlements{\textquoteright} planning and governance. Settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires can be purposively facilitated by the development and application of bushfire risk management knowledge. Spatial planning has the potential to support learning about and acting upon changing conditions and new bushfire information to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires. However, the translation of new bushfire knowledge into meaningful spatial planning practices has been limited and spatial planning systems often struggle to integrate bushfire risk management. Thus, this research aims to contribute to understandings of spatial planning ability to improve its practices by identifying, reframing, and putting into action new considerations about bushfire risk management to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires.

This research used an inductive qualitative research approach employing two case studies: the spatial planning systems of Chile and Victoria (Australia). Qualitative data was collected from documentation, archival records, and semi-structured interviews. The data was analysed using time-series analysis, qualitative content analysis, and cross-case synthesis techniques. The research was divided into four stages, two stages correspond to the individual case study analysis and the remaining two to cross-case synthesis and discussion.

The research concludes that the Chilean and Victorian spatial planning systems are still constrained in their promotion of settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires due to internal and external complexities that frame and limit their ability for bushfire risk management. In Chile, there have been several mostly unsuccessful attempts to integrate bushfire considerations into the spatial planning system, thus the current system only outlines spatial planning mechanisms for bushfire risk management generically and inapplicably. In Victoria, the spatial planning system has partially and progressively improved its ways for dealing with bushfires, however, the current system still considers bushfire risk management partially and sometimes ambiguously. In practice, this implies that both spatial planning systems are sometimes allowing and even promoting settlements patterns that perpetuate bushfire risks.

Based on a cross-case synthesis, the research concludes that spatial planning instruments that comprehensively address bushfires are necessary, suggesting an integrated approach that undertakes bushfire risk management at the strategic, tactical, and operational levels of planning mechanisms and processes. This approach establishes the instruments{\textquoteright} role in bushfire risk management and other factors that provide directions for improving their ability to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfire. Furthermore, the research also concludes that reflexive processes are not always conducive to the development and improvement of spatial planning systems for bushfire risk management, due to the variance of willingness, understanding, and capacity issues within the system and in the wider context. Accordingly, thesis propositions about the barriers and facilitators that influence spatial planning progressing from the identification, to the reframing and implementation of change about bushfire risk management were suggested.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, disaster risk managemet, Disaster risk reduction, resilience, spatial planning, urban planning, Wildfire}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/267371}, author = {Constanza Gonzalez-Mathiesen} } @article {bnh-7972, title = {State Emergency Service (SES): Volunteer views on experiences, wellbeing, and motivations {\textendash} Findings from the Cultural Assessment Tool (CAT) Survey 2019-20}, number = {660}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

In 2017, the University of Western Australia (UWA) began a research collaboration project with the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC), to investigate ways to improve the retention rates of their emergency service volunteers. Thus, researchers from UWA and Curtin University collaborated with DFES to develop and administer a Cultural Assessment Tool (CAT) in the form of an online survey from September 2018 to February 2019.

The CAT survey conducted in 18-19 was intended to learn more about the SES volunteering experience from the volunteers{\textquoteright} perspectives. The goal was to obtain information on how to improve volunteer recruitment, retention, wellbeing, and diversity practices within the overall SES volunteering journey. The findings of the 18-19 survey were then used to inform the design of the follow-up CAT survey conducted in 19-20. The key purpose of the 19-20 survey was to assess the current state of volunteering within the SES in 2019 and 2020, in addition to tracking changes in the SES volunteering experience over the last 12 months. The CAT 18-19 findings served as the basis for comparison, such that the 19-20 survey was used to investigate which areas of the volunteering experience have remained the same, improved from the previous year, or have room for improvement.

Survey information

The CAT 19-20 survey was administered on the Qualtrics online survey platform, allowing the research team to collect data from multiple Western Australian regions in a short amount of time. We also offered paper and pencil versions of the survey to volunteers upon request.\ \ 

Individuals who completed the CAT 19-20 survey did so anonymously, to encourage transparency in their responses. In the CAT 18-19 survey, participants were asked to supply their email addresses to be contacted for future research. Of the 398 participants from the 18-19 survey, 307 gave their email addresses. These volunteers were invited to participate in the 19-20 survey and were given three reminders to complete it. The survey was also launched at the Western Australian Fire and Emergency Services (WAFES) conference in September 2019. The survey was later promoted through stakeholder meetings and online means (i.e., volunteer e-newsletters, the DFES online volunteer portal, and Facebook).

There were six main themes in the CAT 19-20 survey, and a total of 90 individual survey questions, plus ten demographic questions.

Compared to the 18-19 survey, the theme of {\textquoteleft}Meeting Expectations{\textquoteright} and the sub-theme {\textquoteleft}Reasons to Join{\textquoteright} were removed due to sufficient information collected from the previous year. However, several open-ended questions were included in the 19-20 survey to measure; any leadership or role changes in the unit, changes in the personal lives of volunteers that affected their ability to volunteer, and any changes in the incluvieness of their unit climates in the last 12 months.

Of the 2033 registered SES volunteers across Western Australia (WA), we received 226 complete responses for the CAT 19-20 survey, with an overall estimated response rate of 11\%. Of the 226, 136 participants had also participated in the CAT 18-19 survey. However, due to incompleteness in the CAT 18-19 survey, the final total number of matched participants for both surveys is 95 respondents. In comparison to 18-19, the survey response rate has reduced from 21\% to 11\%. One possible explanation for the lower response rate in 19-20 is due to the survey overlapping with other SES volunteer surveys being conducted by different organisations using similar timeframes.

The document will now proceed with discussing the participant demographics and findings for the CAT 19-20 survey. This will be followed by a comparison of the findings between the CAT 18-19 and 19-20 surveys. Finally, the document will conclude with key implications; highlighting group differences, key areas of strength, and key opportunities for improvement.

}, keywords = {Cultural Assessment Tool, experiences, motivations, state emergency service, survey, volunteers, wellbeing}, issn = {660}, author = {Hawa Farid and Darja Kragt and Patrick Dunlop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Djurre Holtrop} } @article {bnh-8284, title = { Studying leaf area density based wind adjustment factor in Spark}, number = {713}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In some operational fire prediction models such as the McArthur model [1] or Vesta model [2], a static (constant) wind reduction factor (WRF) is used to account for subcanopy wind profile. However, the WRF is far more complicated than what can be described by a constant value. A dynamic WRF depends on wind velocity well above the forest canopy, canopy height and canopy density which may vary from location to location. In our earlier work, we developed a simpler model considering uniform vertical canopy density, known as the Harman-Finnigan model [3].\  However, Moon et al. [4] and Sutherland et al. [5] demonstrated that vertically heterogonous leaf area density (LAD) can significantly change the WRF. Massman et al [6] presented a set of equations accounting for vertically heterogonous LAD,\  plant area index (PAI) and above-canopy wind profiles towards calculating subcanopy wind adjustment factor (WAF). WAF is basically the inverse of WRF. In this study, we implement this LAD based WRF (by inversing Massman{\textquoteright}s WAF) model in CSIRO{\textquoteright}s Spark platform within its Vesta fire propagation model [2].

This research was initially tested using a synthetic dataset to apply canopy parameters that represent Australian vegetation properties. The preliminary Spark simulation results show some variation in fire rate of spread based on various vegetation types. Further, we assess the implementation using three case studies based on three fire incidents, Mount Cooke Fire 2003 of Western Australia, Kilmore Fire 2009 of Victoria, and Lithgow Fire (State Mine) 2013 of New South Wales. Taking PAI as half of leaf area index (LAI), testing four different LAD configurations, it is found that for Tall Open Eucalyptus LAD, best results are obtained in relation to actual final fire perimeters

}, keywords = {adjustment, area density, factor, leaf, spark, wind}, issn = {713}, author = {Mahmood Rashid and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-7793, title = {Supplementing emergency warning messages to encourage readiness to act: the effect of colours and icons}, number = {640}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Current Australian emergency warning messages that have been refined to match evidence-based practice strongly encourage community members{\textquoteright} readiness to act on emergency instructions (Greer, Dootson, Miller \& Tippett, 2019). Given the written elements of warning messages are optimised to encourage readiness to act, this research examines the effect of adding icons and/or colours to official warnings. In this research, we draw on a socio- psychological model of precautionary adaption (Grothmann \& Reusswig, 2006) underpinned by Protective Motivation Theory (PMT; Rogers, 1975, 1983; Rogers \& Prentice-Dunn, 1997) to investigate whether emergency warning messages can be further optimised by adding colours and/or icons to encourage even higher levels of readiness to act on emergency instructions.

In order to achieve the aims of this research, an online survey was conducted in which participants were exposed to one of 16 mock emergency warnings about either a bushfire or a riverine flood and were then asked a series of questions relating to their demographic characteristics, message comprehension and effectiveness, threat appraisal, coping appraisal, protection motivation and maladaptive coping behaviour. Mock emergency warnings were developed using existing end-user emergency warnings to improve realism and maximise the usefulness of the findings, as well as building on previous QUT-conducted BNHCRC research (see Greer et al., 2019). A total of 2,482 Australians living across all states and territories were recruited to participate in the research. Participants were recruited by the Market Research firm Dynata. Approximately 150 participants responded to each of the 16 stimuli.

Overall, the research results show that adding colours and/or icons to the Evacuate Now (Bushfire) message creates improvements, albeit small ones, in message comprehension, effectiveness, perceived probability and perceived self-efficacy. The other three messages showed no improvement (or loss) in message comprehension, effectiveness, threat appraisal, or coping appraisal as a result of adding colours and/or icons.

}, keywords = {colours, Emergency, icons, messages, readiness, warning}, issn = {640}, author = {Dominique Greer and Paula Dootson and Sophie Miller and Vivienne Tippett} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8089, title = {Taking fire: the historical and contemporary politics of Indigenous burning in Australia and the western United Statest}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, school = {Australian National University}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

Large bushfires in recent years around the world have sparked debate and interest in fire management; a world warming through industrial combustion is a world turning to Indigenous fire practices for solutions. Yet even as Indigenous Australians increasingly assert pyro-identities, non-Indigenous Australians have struggled to understand Indigenous burning practices and the nature of antipodean fire. This thesis examines the historical and contemporary politics of fire and how they relate to\ changing understandings of Indigenous burning in Australia and the United States in the 20th and 21st centuries. It examines public and institutional debates after large bushfires, discussions about management of public lands and shifting representations of Indigenous burning through analysis of royal commission transcripts, newspaper articles and other public discourse, policy submissions, institutional archives and academic published material. The thesis explores the relationship of environmentalism to fire and Indigenous burning, the contradictions of {\textquoteright}wilderness{\textquoteright} and the politics of race and identity. It charts the development of competing understandings of fire and Indigenous burning in academic disciplines as well as the entanglement of Indigenous burning with the politics of land management and institutional rivalries. Through a comparison of the mutual entanglements and divergences of Australian and American fire management and conceptualisations of Indigenous burning, the thesis demonstrates the historical and transnational context of Australian fire. It argues for localised understandings of fire and fire management, perspectives that are attentive to cultural and ecological specificities. Perceptions of Indigenous burning have inspired policy-making and they have also been appropriated for legitimation, with profound consequences for cultural politics and ecological communities. Finally, the thesis charts how Indigenous burning has been transformed in the imagination and discourses of non-Indigenous Australia: from academic curiosity to political incendiary - and, increasingly, to a lived reality.

}, keywords = {Australia, burning, contemporary, historical, indigenous, politics, US}, doi = {10.25911/MA4M-SN80}, url = {https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/222852}, author = {Daniel May} } @article {bnh-8131, title = {Towards protective action: effective risk and warning communication during natural hazards {\textendash} final project report}, number = {692}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The release of the National Review of Warnings and Information (Emergency Management Victoria, 2014) triggered the need for a range of evidence-based practice about constructing better natural hazard emergency warning messages. This report showcases a three-year program of end-user driven interdisciplinary research that derived evidence-based insights into risk and warning communication during the response phase of natural hazard emergencies. The research examines existing and modified communication to community members who may be affected by natural hazards. The work outlined in this report builds on our previous CRC project on effective communication in natural hazards.

The first CRC project (2014-2017) focused on the pre-decisional processes of community members and business owners, particularly their exposure to, attention to, and comprehension of warning messages in the response and early recovery phase of multiple hazards. The current project (2017-2020) builds on that knowledge and focuses on how the inputs into the pre-decisional process{\textemdash}environmental cues, social cues, information sources, channel access and preference, warning messages and receiver characteristics{\textemdash}inform protective action during the response phases of natural hazards.

There are two core research aims:

These aims have been achieved through three tailored research packages:

This project employs a multi-method, multi-hazard research design to:

Our research findings have been shared with end-users through the AFAC Warnings Group, invited presentations and consultancies, private meetings, conferences, and workshops, and translated into practice via audits, public information, visual content (e.g., infographics), emergency alert templates, national doctrine, and to support the Australian Warnings System.

}, keywords = {action, communication, Natural hazards, protective, risk, warning}, issn = {692}, author = {Vivienne Tippett and Dominique Greer and Amisha Mehta and Paula Dootson and Lisa Bradley and Sophie Miller and Scott Murray} } @article {bnh-8232, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - a guide for using scenarios in the emergency management sector}, number = {708}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

While this Guide references the breadth of ways in which scenarios can be applied in practice, the core purpose of this Guide is to outline one practical way for EMS organisations to start using these scenarios. The Guide outlines a simple, yet powerful way (wind tunnelling) for organisations to test and improve decision making and planning in an uncertain world where the volatility, frequency and magnitude of climate events will challenge the sector like never before. Experimenting with this {\textquotedblleft}wind tunnelling{\textquotedblright} approach and becoming familiar with its use in the context of one{\textquoteright}s own organisation, will provide leaders and decision-makers with the strategic insights required to strengthen and improve their strategy work and support their organisations to more effectively adapt to and influence the future.

This Guide is designed to be used in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook, which includes:

You will also need to access Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology, which includes:\ \ 

All of these documents can be found here.

The Guide draws on the global experience of Reos Partners in developing and applying scenarios in many different contexts, the climate change research conducted for the project by RMIT University, the wisdom and hands-on experience of the sector-wide scenario team and a little bit of collective imagination.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {708}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8233, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - emergency management sector case studies as worked examples}, number = {710}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

The purpose of Emergency management sector case studies as worked examples is to provide a {\textquoteleft}light{\textquoteright} version of a wind-tunneling process using four case examples from the perspective of different Emergency Service agency types:

  1. Urban firefighting services\  \  \  {\textquotedblleft}urban operations{\textquotedblright}
  2. Rural firefighting services\  \  \  \  {\textquotedblleft}rural operation{\textquotedblright}
  3. Land management agencies\  \  \ {\textquotedblleft}land management{\textquotedblright}
  4. State emergency services\  \  \  \  \ {\textquotedblleft}emergency services{\textquotedblright}

Abridged versions of four strategies or plans have been selected as {\textquoteleft}cases{\textquoteright} to illustrate the application of the wind-tunnelling process described in\ Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: a guide for using scenarios in the emergency management sector.

The cases are:

Case 1 {\textendash} Urban Operations: State Emergency Response Plan Extreme Heat Sub-Plan (2017)

Case 2 {\textendash} Rural Operations: Barwon South West Bushfire Management Strategy (2020)

Case 3 {\textendash} Land Management: City of Ipswich Floodplain Management Strategy (2019)

Case 4 {\textendash} Emergency Services: NZ Risk Reduction Strategy (2019-29)

The Case Studies draw on the experience of the sector-wide scenario team in developing the scenarios and have been designed to be used in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook, including:

You will also need to access Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology, which includes:\ \ 

All of these documents can be found\ here.

Note that wind-tunnelling is a rigorous process requiring significant time and resources, and that these Case Studies are a {\textquoteleft}light{\textquoteright} version of a wind-tunnelling process developed for illustrative purposes only in order to show ways in which the worked examples may be tested and improved.

Note also that not every step in each worked example of the case studies has been fully completed. Parts have been deliberately left blank with an invitation for the reader to engage and complete the exercise. Again, what{\textquoteright}s provided is by way of example is for illustrative purposes only.

Finally, none of the results of wind-tunnelling provided here should be seen as a recommendation for any improvement to any of the strategies selected as EMS Case Studies.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {710}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8234, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - research methodology for scenario development}, number = {709}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

This document presents the research methodology behind the development of the scenarios.

It is designed to be read in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook and the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology pack, which includes:

All of these documents can be found\ here.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {709}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8081, title = {Understanding post-fire fuel dynamics using burnt permanent forest plots}, number = {674}, year = {2021}, month = {06/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The main goal of this study is to obtain empirical measurements of fuel load, structure and hazard within the first two years after a fire to complement the measurements of fuel loads taken directly before the fires.\  This will not only allow us to precisely quantify the fuel loads consumed by a range of fires, but it will also give us a baseline measurement of fuel loads.\  We can use this baseline to anchor measurements of fuel accumulation in wet eucalypt forests that are part of related TERN and BNHCRC studies attempting to measure both the effects of climate and stand age on fuel accumulation in wet forests.

Current state of knowledge

The flammability of tall wet eucalypt forests is poorly understood. A globally unique forest type, these forests consist of a highly-flammable Eucalyptus overstorey and a moist, non-flammable understorey consisting of rainforest and broadleadf trees and shrubs. As a result, these forests are rarely available to burn, and almost no data exists on flammability and fire behaviour. While current fire behaviour models assume that fuel load and hence flammability increase asymptotically as a function of time since previous fire,\ there is much debate over whether this is the true trajectory of flammability in these forests. Understanding how fire severity is influenced by fuels and time since fire is a critical question in these forests.

As the rate of spread and intensity of a fire is a function of fuels, fire weather and topography, and as only the latter can be physically manipulated, the effect of fuel load and structure on fire behaviour, and the subsequent reduction in fuels, is extremely important to understand.\  Planned burning, the intentional use of low-severity fire, is the most commonly employed fuel reduction technique in Australia.\  The underlying concept is that burning off fuel loads across a landscape leads to an increased encounter rate with low fuel load areas.7 While reducing fuel ages has been shown to reduce both the extent and incidence of unplanned fires, the effect of low severity fires on actual fuel loads has not been explicitly quantified, especially in wet forests where planned burning is less commonly practiced than in dry forest.\  Further, low-severity fires have historically been overlooked in wet forests, as high-severity fires are though to be the important disturbance type due to the serotinous nature of many eucalypts. But recent research indicates that low-severity fires could play a more important role that previously realised.

Related projects

This study is building a large dataset of pre- and post-fire permanent plot measurements to complement existing studies on the fire regime of wet eucalypt forests. As mentioned above it utilised infrastructure set up as part of the TERN forests Ausplots network, and the Warra Chronosequence plots. Such a dataset will allow for analyses such as\  the validation of fire behaviour models, analysis of the resilience wet forests to wildfire, and help understand how fire severity affects subsequent fire hazard. Data from this study has already added a valuable validation section to a study providing the first-ever explicit description of the fire regime of mature wet Eucalyptus forests across Australia.26\ 

This project has also contributed a valuable high-resolution field-based validation for the BNHCRC project Using pre and post fire LiDAR to assess the severity of the 2019 Tasmanian Bushfires. This project will create, among other things, a high-resolution fire-severity map of the Riveaux Road Fire. With these data, we will be able to perform geospatial analyses to untangle the drivers of fire severity during this bushfire. Importantly the area burned in the fire includes the WARRA silvicultural experiment, in which a number of silvicultural treatments were trialled in a small area. This will allow an investigation into the effects of different silvicultural practices on flammability and fire severity in tall wet Eucalyptus forests.

Research questions

This study plans to focus on three major research questions:

}, keywords = {burnt, dynamics, forest, fuel, permanent, plots, post-fire}, issn = {674}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-8165, title = {Using pre- and post-fire LiDAR to assess the severity of the 2019 Tasmanian bushfires}, number = {698}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

In January 2019, over 64,000 ha of bushland burned in the Riveaux Road fire in Tasmania{\textquoteright}s southern forests. Most of area burned occurred in tall wet eucalypt forest. These forests are considered to be highly flammable in dry conditions, but fires are infrequent due to the generally cool, wet climate in which they grow. As a result, limited data exists on the behaviour and effects of wildfire in these forests. Prior to these fires, extensive areas of these southern forests have been studied in-depth. In 2014, a large area of the forests that burned were mapped with aerial LiDAR, a remote-sensing technology that can characterise three-dimensional forest structure. Further, in 2016, detailed field-based measurements of fuel load, structure, and hazard were taken at 12 permanent plots which subsequently burned in 2019. Hence, the 2019 fires in Tasmania represent a globally-rare opportunity to characterise the severity of a large wildfire using pre-fire and post-fire data. In October 2019, the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE) in Tasmania, along with five other BNHCRC end-users and the University of Tasmania, launched a project to use remote-sensing and field-based data to create a detailed case study of the 2019 Riveaux Rd. Fire, and to untangle the drivers of fire severity in tall wet eucalypt forests.\  To do this we (i) remeasured plots to assess tree mortality and changes in fuel loads post fire; (ii) acquired LiDAR data from a transect across a burned buttongrass-forest boundary on the Weld River enabling comparison with pre-fire LiDAR data; (iii) established baseline postfire LiDAR buttongrass-forest boundary transect on the Huon River at Blakes Opening.\  Here we describe the data sets and report some preliminary analyses.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, fire severity, Lidar, post-fire, pre-fire, Tasmania}, issn = {698}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and Arko Lucieer and Scott Foyster and Anna Matala and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-8191, title = {Wind speed Reduction Factors (WRFs): utilities for WRF assessment and communication - Black Summer final report}, number = {688}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This project commenced in March 2021 as a Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Black Summer funded initiative between Queensland Fire and Emergency Services and the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Queensland. The purpose of the project was to undertake an evaluation of WRFs used in Australia (including during Black Summer) to quantify the reduction of open space wind speed by Australian fuel types.

Wind is a key driver of fire behaviour and can be highly variable and difficult to predict, particularly within the lowest 1-2km of the atmosphere where it interacts in complex ways with topography and vegetation. Operational fire spread modelling quantifies the impact of vegetation or fuel type on wind speed using Wind speed Reduction Factors (WRFs) or Wind Adjustment Factors (WAFs). Specifically, these factors quantify the impact of vegetation on reducing the speed of the open space prevailing wind. WRF is typically the ratio of 10m open wind speed to 2m wind speed, whereas WAF is the ratio of {\textquoteleft}midflame{\textquoteright} wind speed to 20 ft open wind speed.

To date, single or static WRFs have been assigned to 62 Queensland Broad Vegetation Groups (BVGs) for use within the operational fire simulation application PHOENIX Rapidfire. These WRFs have been derived via approximation. Specifically, the 10m open wind speed has been approximated by the closest Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Automatic Weather Station (AWS) to the field site, and the 2m near-surface wind speed has been approximated via the use of a handheld anemometer raised to eye-level at a suitable location within the field site.

The key research aims were to:

The review found that the use of approximated static WRFs has caused minor to significant error accumulation in the fire spread model outputs produced by fire simulation applications, including PHOENIX Rapidfire.

To reduce error in fire spread modelling, the review concluded that the development of dynamic WRF modelling capabilities should be a priority. These dynamic WRFs should respond to key wind, fuel, fire and topography parameters that change over time and space.

However, a dynamic WRF model should not require such high levels of computation so as to delay real-time fire spread modelling outputs. At its simplest, a dynamic WRF model is a discrete, empirically derived WRF profile, illustrating the change in WRF at specific heights measured within a fuel type in the field. A more advanced dynamic WRF model might be a mathematical model for which wind, fuel, fire and topography parameters act as inputs and a mathematically idealised continuous WRF profile is the output. This model should be validated by empirical data. Overall, each fuel type should have its own WRF profile. The end goal should be to replace all static WRFs with dynamic WRF profiles in fire spread models.

A WRF test site was established in the priority fuel type {\textquoteleft}moist to dry eucalypt woodland on coastal lowlands and ranges{\textquoteright} at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) Samford Ecological Research Facility (SERF), located on the outskirts of Samford Valley in Southeast Queensland. Installed at the site is a 15m instrumented tower using 3D sonic anemometers to record mean 3D wind speed, vertical wind direction and sonic air temperature. A discrete WRF profile was derived by taking the ratio of the average 10m open wind speed measured by the nearest BOM AWS in Brisbane and the average wind speed measured at heights of 2.5m, 4.5m, 10.5m and 15.5m. This WRF profile is preliminary as it is based on 23 hours of data collected outside the southeast Queensland fire season (August {\textendash} December).

Preliminary investigations of relationships between variables related to WRF were also conducted. The overall wind profile was compared to the Plant Area Density (PAD) profile of the vegetation obtained via terrestrial LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging). A weak to moderate relationship was identified (R2 = 0.22) between mean wind speed and PAD, which may be due to the calm conditions experienced over the short length of the data collection period. Additionally, the day-time and night-time subcanopy temperature profiles were compared. The day-time profile was found to be slightly more constant with height, which may indicate that the subcanopy environment is more mixed and turbulent throughout the day. This result was supported by increased measurements of vertical mixing throughout the day. Nevertheless, data collection over a longer period under more varied conditions is recommended to investigate these relationships further.

The WRF test site at the QUT SERF has provided a preliminary insight into the relationships between vegetation and meteorology in the Australian context, which is essential for the development of empirically based dynamic WRF profiles for all fuel types. The methodology used is transferable and will be applied to other sites containing other priority fuel types. Anemometer measurements and LiDAR scans may then be used as key datasets for underpinning and validating the development of advanced dynamic WRF modelling capabilities in the next generation of fire spread models. Until this capability is developed, the new quick-reference WRF profile assessment resource developed by this project will enable FBANs near the fire ground to quickly identify the WRF values most relevant to the ensuing fire spread. These values may then be communicated to fire spread modellers.

}, keywords = {assessment, black summer, communication, factors, reduction, speed, wind}, issn = {688}, author = {Hamish McGowan and Katherine Rosenthal and Raymond Bott and John Myles} } @article {bnh-7899, title = {Young people and the emergency services: working towards inclusive partnerships}, number = {653}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability{\textquoteright} project identified the need for Emergency Management Organisations (EMOs) to develop a greater understanding of the communities they serve, and to look for ways to engage more effectively with the diverse nature of Australian communities.

The community aspect of the project introduced a new perspective for EMOs and the development of diversity and inclusion (D\&I) strategies by introducing the experiences of communities themselves. The research focused on two key groups: a refugee community in regional Victoria; and young people aged 18{\textendash}25 years old. Findings from the young people{\textquoteright}s group informed the development of this resource.1

Young people, 18{\textendash}25 year olds, may not identify themselves as a diverse community. We define diversity as the way we differ and this age group has a low level of community participation with the emergency services.

Young people represent a unique challenge for EMOs, with low levels of community engagement. Their life stage of emerging adulthood and increasing independence, as well as their focus on study and/or work, present barriers to their community engagement. The changing nature of volunteering presents new opportunities for EMOs to engage with this age group and to develop inclusive partnerships.

The resource begins with an overview of what is important to young people, their areas of interest, and motivation to engage in their community. Communicating effectively and through their popular social media mediums is vital, and this resource provides an overview of how to engage with this age group online. The resource also provides strategies of how to find ways to work together, and the skills, attributes and capabilities young people bring to your organisation.

The resource has a practical focus, and provides links to organisations who have developed effective strategies to engage young people. Links to existing resources with checklists and more information about how to work with young people in your organisation are also provided. Young people have a lot to offer EMOs, but they are not necessarily aware of their own potential. Developing an understanding of young people{\textquoteright}s interests and motivation is important if you are to find ways to develop inclusive partnerships that are mutually beneficial.

{\textquoteleft}It{\textquoteright}s just how you make these links where people can see you have all of these capabilities that we would really love to have and this would be a great resource to have and maybe inspiring or making young people aspire to be part of these emergency services. Because for a lot of people, I{\textquoteright}m generalising, I think people think they{\textquoteright}d love to do it, but don{\textquoteright}t think they{\textquoteright}re capable. I have so much respect for people who are in the police or fire brigade and things, but I don{\textquoteright}t know if I could.{\textquoteright} {\textemdash} Young female

}, keywords = {emergency services, inclusive, partnerships, young people}, issn = {653}, author = {McDonald, F} } @article {bnh-6827, title = {Active fire detection using the Himawari-8 satellite - annual report 2018-19}, number = {563}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project is a critical part of the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s value to the broader Australian government. The government run Sentinel Hostpots application is used by all levels of government, private sector, researchers and the public. This project will source for the Sentinel Hotspots application. Our vision is to create a world leading approach to monitor fire activity. To achieve this, we propose the use of remote sensing technologies for active fire detection and monitoring.

This project is a critical part of the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s value to Geoscience Australia and the broader\ Australian government. The Sentinel Hotspots application is used by all levels of government, private sector, researchers and the public {\textendash} this system would not be trusted by those parties without sound validation. This project will continue to assist the Australian government in developing and validating the capability of the Himawari-8 data source. Further, the project will assist in the ongoing improvement of vital bushfire information acquired through state-of-the-art remote sensing technology as needed by fire and emergency management now, and into the future.

The aim this project is to next generation, remote sensing satellite information to enhance Australia{\textquoteright}s operational capabilities and information systems for bushfire monitoring across a range of spatial scales and landscapes. Ultimately the outcomes of this research will enable measures of active fires in terms of areal extent and magnitude, which in turn will have the potential to inform decisions about bushfire response, fuel hazard management and ecosystem sensitivity to fire; during fire events and post-fire rehabilitation efforts.

The following sections describe the background, research approaches, key milestons, a utilisation study and outputs of our Himawari-8 active fire detection research.

}, keywords = {Active fire detection, HIMAWARI-8, Satellite}, issn = {563}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Chermelle Engel} } @article {bnh-7505, title = {Active fire detection using the Himawari-8 satellite - annual report 2019-2020}, number = {628}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This project is a critical part of the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s value to the broader Australian government. The government run Sentinel Hotspots application is used by all levels of government, private sector, researchers and the public.\  This project will assist the Australian government to develop and validate Himawari-8 as a data source for the Sentinel Hotspots application.\  Our vision is to create a world leading approach to monitor fire activity.\  To achieve this, we propose the use of remote sensing technologies for active fire detection and monitoring.

This project is a critical part of the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s value to Geoscience Australia and the broader Australian government. The Sentinel Hotspots application is used by all levels of government, private sector, researchers and the public {\textendash} this system would not be trusted by those parties without sound validation. This project will continue to assist the Australian government in developing and validating the capability of the Himawari-8 data source. Further, the project will assist in the ongoing improvement of vital bushfire information acquired through state-of-the-art remote sensing technology as needed by fire and emergency management now, and into the future.

The aim this project is to next generation, remote sensing satellite information to enhance Australia{\textquoteright}s operational capabilities and information systems for bushfire monitoring across a range of spatial scales and landscapes. Ultimately the outcomes of this research will enable measures of active fires in terms of areal extent and magnitude, which in turn will have the potential to inform decisions about bushfire response, fuel hazard management and ecosystem sensitivity to fire during fire events and post-fire rehabilitation efforts.

The following sections describe the background, research approaches, key milestones, utilisation study and outputs of our Himawari-8 active fire detection research.

}, keywords = {fire detection, HIMAWARI-8, Satellite}, issn = {628}, author = {Simon Jones and Karin Reinke and Chermelle Engel} } @article {bnh-7099, title = {The Australian Disaster Resilience Index: Volume I {\textendash} State of Disaster Resilience Report}, number = {492}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australian communities face increasing losses and disruption from disasters. Disaster resilience is a protective characteristic that acts to reduce the effects of, and losses from, natural hazard events. Disaster resilience arises from the capacities of social, economic and government systems to prepare for, respond to and recover from a natural hazard event, and to learn, adapt and transform in anticipation of future natural hazard events. This assessment of disaster resilience estimates the status of these capacities and shows how they are spatially distributed across Australia.

Composite indices are frequently used to summarise and report complex relational measurements about a particular issue. The Australian Disaster Resilience Index measures disaster resilience as a set of coping and adaptive capacities. Coping capacity is the means by which available resources and abilities can be used to face adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster. Adaptive capacity is the arrangements and processes that enable adjustment through learning, adaptation and transformation. Eight themes of disaster resilience encapsulate the resources and abilities that communities have to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazards (social character, economic capital, emergency services, planning and the built environment, community capital, information access) or to adapt, learn and solve problems (social and community engagement, governance and leadership). Across the eight themes, 77 indicators were used to compute the Australian Disaster Resilience Index in 2,084 areas of Australia, corresponding to the Statistical Area Level 2 divisions of the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The Index was then used to undertake the first nationally standardised assessment of the state of disaster resilience in Australia. Disaster resilience is reported at three levels: an overall disaster resilience index, coping and adaptive capacity sub-indexes and themes of disaster resilience that encapsulate the resources and abilities that communities have to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazards and to adapt, learn and solve problems (social character, economic capital, emergency services, planning and the built environment, community capital, information access, social and community engagement, governance and leadership).

Volume I (this volume) assesses the state of disaster resilience in Australia, using the Australian Disaster Resilience Index. Volume I gives a brief overview of the design\ and computation of the index, then assesses the state of disaster resilience in\ Australia at different levels: overall disaster resilience, coping and adaptive\ capacity, and the eight themes of disaster resilience. Volume I also presents a\ typology of disaster resilience that groups areas across Australia that have similar disaster resilience profiles.

Readers interested in the results of the assessment of disaster resilience in\ Australia should focus on Volume I.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, disaster resilience, state of disaster resilience}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-1-9}, issn = {492}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-6977, title = {Australian inquiries into natural hazard events: Recommendations relating to urban planning for natural hazard mitigation (2009-2017)}, number = {571}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on an assessment of major Australian post disaster and emergency event inquiries and reviews from the past 10 years in terms of recommendations relating to the integration of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation.

Findings from this review must be understood in the context of inquiries {\textendash}examinations of events seeking mainly to identify problems and areas for improvement.\  Accordingly, the recommendations do not typically highlight successes or existing strengths, even while these may be well understood and recognised by those involved. Additionally, this report has avoided making detailed assessments of the numbers of various recommendation types, given the uneven distribution of a relatively low number of events. Nonetheless, the emphases upon certain areas and omission of others suggest areas for future improvement.

}, keywords = {events, inquiries, mitigation, Natural hazards, urban planning}, issn = {571}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7466, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: a system for assessing the resilience of Australian communities to natural hazards - final project report}, number = {621}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disaster resilience is a protective characteristic that acts to reduce the effects of, and losses from, natural hazard events. Disaster resilience arises from the capacities of social, economic and government systems to prepare for, respond to and recover from a natural hazard event, and to learn, adapt and transform in anticipation of future natural hazard events. This project developed the Australian Disaster Resilience Index to assess, for the first time, the capacity for disaster resilience in communities across Australia.

Disaster resilience in Australia

The assessment of disaster resilience using the Australian Disaster Resilience Index shows that communities in Australia do not all have the same capacity for disaster resilience. About 52\% of the population live in areas with moderate capacity for disaster resilience, about 32\% in areas with high capacity for disaster resilience and about 16\% in areas with low capacity for disaster resilience. Analysis of the distribution of disaster resilience in Australia revealed:

Australian communities are also affected by various factors which enhance or constrain their capacity for disaster resilience. The particular combination of factors that influence capacity for disaster resilience differs from place to place. This generates a heterogeneous and complex picture of the factors associated with disaster resilience in Australia. Analysis of the distribution of the eight theme sub-indexes revealed:

}, keywords = {adri, assessing, communities, Natural hazards, resilience, system}, issn = {621}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac} } @article {bnh-7101, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 1: Design of the Index}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Section 1.1 Presents the conceptual basis of the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

Section 1.2 Describes the structure of the index, including its hierarchical structure, and the themes of disaster resilience.

Section 1.3 Outlines the spatial resolution and areas of Australia included in the index.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7102, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 2: Indicators}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Section 2.1 Describes the method used to identify and select indicators for the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

Section 2.2 Lists the indicators used in the index themes, including the source of each indicator and how it was calculated.

Section 2.3 Justifies the relationships between indicators and disaster resilience for each theme in the index, using a literature review.

Section 2.4 Describes the method used to disaggregate some of the indicators to an SA2 resolution.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design, indicators}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7103, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 3: Computation of the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Section 3.1 Reviews the development and use of composite indexes and methods for computing composite indexes.

Section 3.2 Describes the rationale for, and the statistical computation of, the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

Section 3.3 Describes the methods used to compute the typology of groups of SA2s with similar disaster resilience profiles.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7104, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 4: Statistical outputs: ANDRI, coping capacity and adaptive capacity}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Section 4.1 Presents the statistical outputs and results for the overall Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

Section 4.2 Presents the statistical outputs and results for the coping capacity index.

Section 4.3 Presents the statistical outputs and results for the adaptive capacity index.

}, keywords = {adaptive capacity, ANDRI, computation, coping capacity, disaster resilience, index design}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7105, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 5: Statistical outputs: disaster resilience themes}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Each section presents the statistical outputs and results of one disaster resilience theme.

Section 5.1 Social character.

Section 5.2 Economic capital.

Section 5.3 Emergency services.

Section 5.4 Planning and the built environment.

Section 5.5 Community capital.

Section 5.6 Information access.

Section 5.7 Social and community engagement.

Section 5.8 Governance and leadership.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design, statistical output}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7106, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Chapter 6: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this chapter

Section 6.1 Explains the role of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in composite index construction.

Section 6.2 Describes the uncertainty analysis applied to the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

Section 6.2 Describes the sensitivity analysis applied to the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index.

}, keywords = {analysis, ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design, sensitivity, uncertainty}, isbn = { 978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7100, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: Volume II {\textendash} Index Design and Computation}, number = {493}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australian communities face increasing losses and disruption from natural disasters.\  Disaster resilience is a protective characteristic that acts to reduce the effects of, and losses from, natural hazard events.\  Disaster resilience arises from the capacities of social, economic and government systems to prepare for, respond to and recover from a natural hazard event, and to learn, adapt and transform in anticipation of future natural hazard events.\  This assessment of disaster resilience estimates the status of these capacities and shows how they are spatially distributed across Australia.

Composite indices are frequently used to summarize and report complex relational measurements about a particular issue.\  The Australian Disaster Resilience Index measures disaster resilience as a set of coping and adaptive capacities.\  Coping capacity is the means by which available resources and abilities can be used to face adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster.\  Adaptive capacity is the arrangements and processes that enable adjustment through learning, adaptation and transformation.\  Eight themes of disaster resilience encapsulate the resources and abilities that communities have to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazards (social character, economic capital, emergency services, planning and the built environment, community capital, information access) or to adapt, learn and solve problems (social and community engagement, governance and leadership).\  Across the eight themes, 77 indicators were used to compute the Australian Disaster Resilience Index in 2084 areas of Australia, corresponding to the Statistical Area Level 2 divisions of the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The index was then used to undertake the first nationally standardised assessment of the state of disaster resilience in Australia.\  Disaster resilience is reported at three levels: an overall disaster resilience index, coping and adaptive capacity sub-indexes and themes of disaster resilience that encapsulate the resources and abilities that communities have to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazards and to adapt, learn and solve problems (social character, economic capital, emergency services, planning and the built environment, community capital, information access, social and community engagement, governance and leadership).

Volume II (this volume) describes in detail the computation of the Australian Disaster Resilience Index. This includes resilience concepts, literature\ review, index structure, data collection, indicators, statistical methods, detailed\ statistical outputs, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analyses.

Readers interested in the technical aspects of the Australian Disaster\ Resilience Index should also consider Volume II. Volume II is comprised of six\ chapters:

Chapter 1: Design of the Australian Disaster Resilience Index

Chapter 2: Indicators

Chapter 3: Computation of the Australian Disaster Resilience Index

Chapter 4: Statistical outputs: ADRI, coping capacity and adaptive\ capacity

Chapter 5: Statistical outputs: disaster resilience themes

Chapter 6: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

}, keywords = {ANDRI, computation, disaster resilience, index design}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-2-6}, issn = {493}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-6568, title = {Barriers and enablers in the long term recovery of communities affected by natural hazards: a review of the literature}, number = {534}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC reviews Australian and international literature on the long term recovery of communities that have been impacted by natural hazards.\  Previous reviews have considered the immediate, short and medium term recovery and to a lesser extent long term recovery.\  However, none have focused upon the barriers and the enablers of effective long term recovery.\  This is the focus of this literature review.

The review addressed three key areas:

1)\ \ \  what does the literature say is {\textquoteleft}long-term{\textquoteright} in disaster recovery and how does that play out in disasters;

2)\ \ \  what has been done well in disaster recovery (i.e. What has been shown to have benefits for community recovery); and,

3)\ \ \  what are the key messages for successful long term disaster recovery?

The approach required a review of literature that documented and discussed the problems that can arise within a recovery phase that can determine the barriers and enablers for effective long term recovery.\  This necessarily includes consideration of the short term recovery efforts as decisions made in the short term inevitably impact upon future outcomes.

The key findings were:

}, keywords = {communities, hazard response, literature review, Natural hazards, recovery}, issn = {534}, author = {Phil Morley and Elaine Barclay and Melissa Parsons} } @article {bnh-7196, title = {Benefit versus cost analysis and optimal cost effective mitigation strategies}, number = {598}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This report forms part of the output to a research project entitled {\textquoteleft}Cost effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquoteright} within the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations during the recent flooding in Australia in 2011, 2013 and 2015, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. The BNHCRC project aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains.

Previous project steps towards achieving this goal have included the development of a building schema to categorise the Australian residential building stock and a literature review of mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally. The review categorised strategies into elevation, relocation, dry floodproofing, wet floodproofing and the use of flood barriers. Five typical storey types which represent the most common residential buildings in Australia have been selected to evaluate the above mentioned mitigation strategies.

\ Each mitigation strategy has been costed through engagement of a professional quantity surveyor and the application of the mitigation strategies and resultant reduction in susceptibility of damage has been quantified in the form of vulnerability models for mitigated storey types.

This report presents an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of flood mitigation strategies to residential buildings in Launceston Tasmania through a benefit versus cost analysis. The benefit versus cost analysis requires assessing loss both pre-and post-mitigation for a range of flood likelihoods with the difference being the benefit. The costs of the applied mitigation are then compared to the benefits with a benefit versus cost ratio of greater than 1.0 indicating an economically viable decision.

In the research presented here the mitigation options were typically assessed as cost-effective when considering damage to the rersidential buildings with the probable maximum flood extent.\  An important modelling assumption was to assume that the existing levee system that does provide a level of flood protection to Launceston was not in place (i.e. the City was unprotected). The results here are also only for one catchment and its behavior and also for the building stock in Launceston. The use of temporary flood barriers around the area with the highest flood hazard was the most cost-effective measure.

Work will continue with cost versus benefit analyses planned for other locations with different building stock configuarations and different catchment type behaviours. The result will be an evidence base to inform decision making by government and property owners on the mitigation of flood risk. The evidence base will feature information on the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies and optimal solutions for different cases of building and catchment types.

}, keywords = {benefit, buildings, cost analysis, Flood, mitigation, strategies}, issn = {598}, author = {Maqsood, T and Dale, K and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-6986, title = {Building best practice in child-centred disaster risk reduction: annual project report 2018-2019}, number = {575}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Emerging as a distinct approach to disaster risk reduction (DRR) over the last 15 years, the primary objective of Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction (CCDRR) is to strengthen children{\textquoteright}s knowledge and skills so that they understand the disaster risks that exist in their communities and can take a lead role in reducing those risks. In the Australian context, the most commonly practiced form of CCDRR is school-based Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Education (DRRRE).

To support the delivery of effective and sustainable in DRRRE in Australian schools, research conducted in the first phase of this project (2014-2017) was focused on the development of guiding models and frameworks and the evaluation and redevelopment of End-User DRRRE programs and resources.

For second phase of the project (2017-2020), the focus has shifted toward school-led DRRRE programs and initiatives, which will enable bottom-up processes to inform end-user policy and practice. The project is also addressing the vexing issue of scaled implementation through the development of an evidence-based national framework which brings together the concerns and priorities of emergency management agencies and the education sector.\ 

This Annual Report provides a summary of progress to date, including a discussion of how cumulative research outputs from the first four years of the project are being utilised by End-User agencies to inform DRRRE program design, implementation and evaluation. It then provides the details on the various research activities which comprise the 2017-2020 research program, including:

  1. Project-based learning for disaster risk reduction and resilience: an explanatory case study from Harkaway Primary School;
  2. Descriptive case studies of good practice in DRRRE;
  3. A national study of DRRRE implementation: the 3Rs of disaster education;
  4. The redevelopment of the DRRRE Practice Framework.

The report also includes a summary of current PhD projects and a comprehensive list of publications that have been produced over the course of the project.

}, keywords = {child-centred, Disaster risk reduction, education, practice}, issn = {575}, author = {Briony Towers} } @article {bnh-8037, title = {Building capacity in north Australian remote communities - utilisation project report}, number = {672}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The utilisation workshop was built on preliminary discussions between the research team and agency end users, the Red Cross, community stakeholders and research partners regarding the development of better communication between remote Indigenous communities and fire and emergency services agencies, to reduce risk and build resilience by taking advantage of local knowledge and skills. The workshop addressed topics relating to volunteer models, and specifically the inapplicability, of the classical model, to people living in remote Indigenous communities.

Outputs of the workshop will shape the form of utilisation product/s that participants considered useful for addressing their specific and collective needs regarding volunteering.

This report is a summary of the workshop in Darwin, 11-12th November 2020, and provides summary documents addressing volunteer models adopting narrative formats (e.g. case studies, storytelling, etc); refers to videos addressing key issues for wider community distribution.

The CRC and CDU and our partners will work on the development and delivery of a second utilisation phase 2021. The in-kind support for this workshop, from supporting agencies and stakeholders, will ensure appropriate development of utilisation products during the second phase. This utilisation workshop was funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC in direction linkage to the Building Remote Community Resilience to Natural Hazards Core Research project.

}, keywords = {building, capacity, communities, north australia, remote, utilisation, workshops}, issn = {672}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-6990, title = {Building resilience: understanding the capabilities of diverse communities: case studies of two communities}, number = {578}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Diversity and Inclusion: Building Strength and Capability (D\&I) project has identified building resilience with communities as a key focus of diversity and inclusion (D\&I) strategies for emergency management organisations (EMOs) (Young, Jones \& Kumnick, 2018). The project has identified a need for EMOs to develop greater understanding of the specific characteristics, barriers and needs of the communities they serve, and to identify their attributes, capabilities and skills. Interacting and communicating effectively with diverse communities has been identified as {\textquoteleft}critical to the building of resilience and reduction of risk associated with natural hazard events{\textquoteright} (Young, Jones \& Kumnick, 2018, p. 6).

D\&I strategies are vital to EMOs, but they cannot be developed in isolation, as communities themselves play a significant role in building relationships. The research to date has focused on developing knowledge of how EMOs must be more open to understanding and working with the diverse communities they serve. The need for strategic change in D\&I strategies and practices in EMOs is evident, and, in some cases, already in place (Rasmussen \& Maharaj, 2018; Young and Jones, 2019). However, less is understood about how aware Australia{\textquoteright}s newer communities are of potential natural hazard risks, their own capabilities and readiness to respond, and the potential roles they could play in building resilient communities with EMOs.

While D\&I strategies include greater representation of Australia{\textquoteright}s diverse communities in EMOs (Rasmussen \& Maharaj, 2018), this alone does not build resilient communities. Achieving this goal requires greater understanding of attributes, skills and capabilities from the perspective of the communities themselves. It also requires a fundamental change in the {\textquoteleft}nature of relationships EMOs have with their communities, from delivering a service (transactional), to working with them (relational){\textquoteright} (Young \& Jones, 2019, p. 8; see also Pyke, 2018; Young et al., 2018).

The case study communities reported on here were selected for their diversity rather than their specific engagement with the EMS. Neither have a strong relationship with, or even a complete understanding of, the emergency services and the role they play. The case studies reflect the disparate nature of diversity, with one a migrant community living in regional Victoria and the other an investigation of young people, aged 18{\textendash}25 years. While the migrant community is an obvious choice in developing understandings of the skills and capabilities of diverse groups, young people represent a unique challenge to EMOs in communities due to their emerging independence into adulthood, and trends in regional and rural contexts that see young people moving on to study, work and live in larger regional cities or urban environments.

}, keywords = {communities, diversity, resilience}, issn = {578}, author = {McDonald, F} } @article {bnh-6743, title = {Cascading extreme weather beyond our experience: are we ready?}, number = {547}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards\ Management Conference was a little\ different from what you might expect from\ a conference. It started with questions and worked through to a strategic view on\ whether we have the best knowledge to deal\ with the extreme hazards of our future that\ are of a nature and scale beyond our current\ experience.

As natural hazards continue to increase in frequency\ and severity, it is more important than ever to provide\ decision-makers with the evidence, information and\ tools to make the necessary critical decisions. As our\ demographics change, cities expand further into the\ bush and dependence on technology increases, our\ exposure to risk intensifies. The economic, social and\ environmental costs are forecasted to rise in a way that\ is unprecedented and unsustainable. These challenges\ are complex, and we should be wary of quick fix solutions.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC undertakes\ research with a vision that firmly imagines what we can\ do now to improve outcomes in the future. Our research\ explores what is possible and then develops evidence,\ knowledge and tools to help improve outcomes.

But the CRC is not a decision maker. The decision\ makers are governments, response agencies,\ organisations and communities. We all make choices\ and compromises: we make decisions on where to live,\ what to invest in and how prepared to be for the hazards\ we are familiar with and the ones we are yet to face {\textendash} the\ cascading, extreme hazards of our future.

This conference was an opportunity for us to explore the decisions available to us that can be made to reduce\ the impacts of these inevitable natural hazards. We\ drew together a diverse cross-section of industries\ that deal with natural hazards and provided them with\ opportunities to stretch their thinking beyond their\ current experiences. We invited them to contribute to\ the development of pathways\ to take research, knowledge\ and lessons into policy and\ practice.

To navigate the challenges of\ the changing risk profile in\ our region, we must act upon\ the knowledge generated\ through research and through\ the relationships cultivated at\ this conference. We encourage\ decision-makers at all levels\ to make courageous and creative choices to improve\ Australia{\textquoteright}s resilience.

The CRC draws together all of Australia and New\ Zealand{\textquoteright}s fire and emergency service authorities with\ the leading experts across a range of scientific fields\ to explore the causes, consequences and mitigation of\ natural disasters and, ultimately, contribute to a more\ disaster resilient Australia.

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards Management\ Conference was integral to this process and this report\ provides a summary of the discussions to extend our\ collective strategic view into the coming years.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Natural hazards, Planning, scenario}, issn = {547}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-6993, title = {Case study: use of remote sensing data to derive spatial and temporal explicit fuel accumulation curves across defence lands}, number = {579}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fuel loads are a main driver of fire rate of spread. Therefore, a spatially explicit estimation of fuel loads, coupled with their variation through time may improve wildland fuel management and contribute to the design of more efficient active fire response strategies. However, the high frequency of planned and unplanned fires in large wild areas linked to varying fire severity levels that affect the rate at which fuels re-accumulate, make the continuous monitoring of wildland fuels challenging with field-based survey methods. Here we propose the use of satellite remote sensing to map fuel loads with a revisit time of 16 days. Fuel load maps are produced for five Defence Lands using Landsat and Sentinel-2 optical remote sensing data available at Digital Earth Australia and the National Computation Infrastructure. The fuel load maps are obtained by calculating the time series of the Vegetation Structure Perpendicular Index, an index that measures post-fire disturbance, and fitting these to fuel accumulation curves derived from literature.

}, keywords = {data analysis, defence lands, fuel accumulation, remote sensing}, issn = {579}, author = {Andrea Massetti and Marta Yebra and James Hilton and Christoph R{\"u}diger} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8097, title = {Collapse behaviour of limited ductile high-strength RC columns under multidirectional earthquake actions}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, school = {Swinburne University of Technology}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Raza (2020) employed experimental, numerical and empirical methods to develop a fundamental understanding of the collapse behaviour of limited ductile high-strength reinforced concrete columns, designed as per Australian concrete standard, under multidirectional earthquake loading. The adequacy of the requirements of the concrete design standard in Australia was assessed and adequate design recommendations were proposed to ensure collapse prevention of such columns in a major earthquake event. The research outcomes are expected to have important implications for the earthquake safety of building stocks in Australia and globally.

}, keywords = {actions, Behaviour, Collapse, ductile, earthquake, high-strength RC columns, limited, multidirectional}, doi = {http://hdl.handle.net/1959.3/456529}, url = {https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/items/10dd9ce0-2aa2-4a20-b78b-dd5695225dbe/1/}, author = {Saim Raza} } @article {bnh-7296, title = {Compound natural disasters in Australia: a historical analysis}, number = {605}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Compound disasters pose complex disaster coordination and recovery challenges. To inform disaster planning for catastrophic disasters it is essential to understand their frequency and characteristics. In this study we utilise natural disaster loss databases to identify the frequency of historical compound disasters in Australia, considering their characteristics and climate influences. Results show that compound disasters have occurred frequently and are associated with the highest seasonal losses in terms of both insured financial losses and fatalities. They may occur coincidently with other societal stressors such as wars, recessions and pandemics further exacerbating their consequences. Though their component disasters most frequently occur in eastern Australia, events can comprise disasters in both the east and west of the continent.\  There is no temporal trend in their frequency when considering financial losses, but there is a downward trend when considering only fatalities. \ It is essential that future disaster risk assessments and plans consider compound disaster scenarios. Relationships with climate drivers may assist to forecast their occurrence.

}, keywords = {compound, historical analysis, Natural disasters}, issn = {605}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Matthew Timms and Stuart Browning and Coates, Lucinda and R Crompton and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-6901, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk}, number = {565}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The CRC project Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk\ is seeking to address the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the earthquake risk posed by vulnerable Australian buildings. It aims to develop information related to more vulnerable Australian building types in the following areas:-

This report describes progress made against the last component which undertook some trial runs to estimate business income loss and rental income loss and provided a complete work plan for estimating direct health care cost.

The economic loss modelling approach aims to encompass the information needs of a range of decision makers. These view benefits through different {\textquotedblleft}lenses{\textquotedblright} and at differing scales. For this research they include:-

This report presents the methodological progress in estimating the proprietary and wage/salary income loss due to business interruption, direct health care costs and the casualty costs to society due to injury and loss of life in the context of the forthcoming Melbourne city case study. The report corresponds with the 30 June 2019 project milestone deliverable {\textquotedblleft}Reporting on Economic Evaluation of Mitigation Strategies and Building Level{\textquotedblright}.

}, keywords = {buildings, cost-effective, earthquake risk, mitigation strategy}, issn = {565}, author = {Itismita Mohanty and Mark Edwards and Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-7378, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk: annual report 2019-2020}, number = {614}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This annual report contains a summary of research undertaken by 4 partner institutions towards the development of cost-effective seismic retrofit methods for vulnerable Australian buildings in the 12-month period from July 2019 through June 2020.

Progress has been made in 4 complementary fronts to:

  1. understand the seismic vulnerabilities of existing unreinforced masonry (URM) and limited ductile reinforced concrete (LDRC) buildings and methods to address them through seismic retrofit
  2. risk assessment of the building stock through development of an economic loss model
  3. advance an end-user focused research utilization project in the area of community risk reduction. This is done through an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study of the historic town of York in Western Australia
  4. commencement of an End-User Utilisation Project with York Shire Council and the WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services through a Natural Disaster Resilience Program funded grant.

The first of the above components is being researched in the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne, and Swinburne. This work includes investigation of existing building seismic capacities and development of retrofit techniques. The second area is being studied by Geoscience and the work includes estimating direct and indirect losses associated with building damage and benefits from seismic retrofit. The third component is being conducted utilizing the research findings in the two other areas in collaboration with the Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services, York Shire Council and its residents. The last component only started at the end of 2019 but is extremely exciting. To date, the project team has identified several URM buildings in the York Shire to act as {\textquoteleft}exemplars{\textquoteright} for seismic retrofit. The first of these, the York Residency Museum building, has been seismically assessed, retrofit solutions recommended, local consultants (engineering and building contractors) have submitted a report and estimated costings for the rehabilitation work and Council is now in discussions with the contractor.

Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, recommendations are made for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base being developed by this CRC project team.

}, keywords = {building, earthquake, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {614}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-7509, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling: ACCESS-Fire {\textendash} annual report 2019-2020}, number = {630}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This project aims to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

Project deliverables include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events; installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI) and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past four years has been on several aspects:

  1. ACCESS-Fire has been installed on NCI and substantial investment has been made in testing and developing the model
  2. A meteorological case study of the Waroona fire has been published, which generated outreach activities across numerous agencies and jurisdictions.
  3. ACCESS-Fire has been run on two fires: the Waroona fire in WA and the Sir Ivan fire in NSW. A draft of the results of the Waroona simulations has been prepared and analysis and manuscript outline of the Sir Ivan simulations is well underway.
  4. Operational support was requested by fire agencies and the Bureau during high-impact events during the 2019-20 fire season. Support was provided in CFS and SES in SA, RFS in NSW and QFES in QLD during the protracted fire campaigns.
  5. A draft of the paper {\textquoteleft}Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire modelling{\textquoteright} has been prepared.

The project has continued to participate strongly in outreach activities, including media engagement through extended radio interviews and collaboration on print and online news articles.\  Conference presentations, high level training presentations and panel participation on topics including fire science, High Performance Computing, STEM careers and Women in Leadership have been attended.

The project has demonstrably achieved the objective of building and sharing national capability in fire research and has repeatedly applied that knowledge in critical focus during high impact events in support of end-users inside their operational centers.\  That outcome is not a specific project deliverable and is to some degree intangible, so not as easily measured as outcomes such as publications. \ However, it demonstrates successful realization of the CRC objective of building collaborations and trusted partnerships and strengthening national capability. The capability is recognized and valued across fire and land management agencies and in the Bureau; value that is evidenced by the repeated requests to provide high-level fire and meteorological interpretation inside operations.\ 

We therefore thank BNHCRC for their understanding in allowing flexible deadlines and repeatedly negotiating project timelines and deliverables, as this flexibility to shifting priorities has enabled the project team to provide operational support when it was needed.

Our focus for the remainder of the project is to complete advanced drafts of the papers to ensure that our key findings are documented in the scientific literature and expand the body of knowledge from coupled modelling studies. \ We will also share the results with a range of audiences through three online presentations and recordings during which we intend to develop presenting experience in more junior members of the project team.

These objectives may be challenging, due to the need to work from home during the Coronavirus pandemic and the need to be flexible with plans.

We are confident that we will bring the project to completion and are gratified that along the way we have shared a valuable legacy of knowledge, analysis techniques and software that can benefit the field of meteorology and fire prediction and the Australian community into the future.

}, keywords = {ACCESS-Fire, coupled, fire-atmosphere, modelling}, issn = {630}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye and Jesse Greenslade} } @article {bnh-6537, title = {Decision making, team monitoring \& organisational learning in emergency management annual report 2018-2019}, number = {531}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project explores aspects of teamwork, decision making and organisational learning with the aim of better supporting people working in complex strategic operations centres.\  We have adopted a human-centred design method to produce practical tools that are designed around how people use these tools in their workplace.\  As part of this process end-users are embedded into the research process. Bringing end-users into the research process creates a partnership where the researchers contribute their knowledge of literature, theory and the research process and the end-users contribute their requirements, operational knowledge and understanding of the barriers to utilisation and adoption.\  Using the human-centred design method we have created a number of practical tools that are at various stages of development.\  These tools focus on managing teams, how to make better decisions, and how to better utilise the products of research.\  For the tools that have reached (or are close to reaching) the end of their evaluation we have also developed training to support their use by end-users.\  We have seen extensive operational use by end-users of the tools we have developed, with a number of agencies amending their standard operating procedures to facilitate use of the tools. \ In addition, research from the project has formed the basis of several key publications (e.g. the Resilience Expert Advisory Group{\textquoteright}s {\textquotedblleft}A practical guide for crisis decision making.{\textquotedblright}). Into the future we will be continuing to develop new tools to support teamwork, decision making and organisational learning and expect to see further utilisation by agencies both in Australia and worldwide.

}, keywords = {Decision making, education, Emergency management, teams}, issn = {531}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Peter Hayes and Heather Stuart} } @article {bnh-6905, title = {Detecting the effects of prescribed burning using generalised additive modelling}, number = {566}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Data collected from 52 plots from sites in Victoria and New South Wales were used to test whether a simple modelling technique {\textendash} a generalised additive model (GAM) {\textendash} could be used in conjunction with satellite imagery to detect the effect of prescribed burning on the hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ET) was selected as the strongest indicator of a change in forest hydrology given the direct effect of removal of vegetation with fuel reduction burning. Variables included in the ET GAM were site details (location, elevation, aspect, slope), soil properties (total carbon and nitrogen), climate (short-term and long- term rainfall, maximum and minimum daily temperature, solar radiation) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), a commonly used spectral product derived from satellite imagery. These variables were used to develop GAMs using sites in each state and combined together. Results from this modelling suggested a change in ET due to prescribed burning was more obvious for sites in Victoria than in NSW. Vegetation (EVI) and climatic variables (solar radiation, df5 and df95) were the best predictors for changes in ET due to prescribed burning activities. Soil (C:N) and terrain variables (slope, aspect, elevation) were not important factors for detecting change in ET. Limitations due to temporal and spatial differences in sampling unburnt and burnt plots and future potential for this method are discussed.

}, keywords = {additive modelling, fire effects, Prescribed burning}, issn = {566}, author = {Mengran Yu and David Pepper and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-7499, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour - annual report 2019-2020}, number = {626}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

At this phase the project was focused on development of a new method to test flammability of live vegetation in dynamic conditions and understanding influence of climatic changes on the 2019/20 bushfire season in New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, and South Australia (SA).

Understanding live vegetation fuel properties and how they behave when exposed to radiant heat and flame allows us to better predict fire behaviour in forested areas. This study aims to determine a more effective, replicable and accurate method of testing flammability in live vegetation by comparing the impact different radiant heating regimes have on the ignitibility of live vegetation samples. Current methodologies are limited in their ability to provide accurate quantification of flammability due to their reliance on static heat flux exposure, which does not accurately replicate how live plants experience radiative heat flux during a wildfire in their natural environment. Two heating regimes were tested for this study {\textendash} a static heat flux to reflect current methods and a dynamic (increasing) heat flux to more accurately replicate real conditions of an approaching fire front. Piloted-ignition and unpiloted-ignition were also tested for both of these heating regimes. A Variable Heat Flux (VHFlux) Apparatus was used to study flammability of Acacia floribunda, Cassinia arcuata, Pinus radiata and bark from Eucalyptus obliqua. Time to pyrolysis (production of volatile products), smouldering, flaming ignition, complete consumption and radiant exposure (the radiant energy received by a sample over a time of heating, He) were used as ignitability measures. It was observed that time and radiant exposure required to reach flaming ignition (and the other ignitibility metrics) was higher under a dynamic heating regime. It was also observed that the presence of a pilot igniter greatly increased the number of samples that reached flaming ignition, and decreased the time and He required to reach flaming ignition (and the other ignitibility metrics). These results suggest clear differences observed between heating regimes for time and Herequired for ignition and other ignitibility measures, which supports the validity of using dynamic heating regimes and the VHFlux apparatus as a standardised method. Adoption of this methodology is recommended to ensure more realistic data on flammability of individual plant species and plant communities, which will ultimately lead to better informed and more accurate wildfire behaviour modelling.

There is no doubt that the fire season of 2019/20 was extraordinary. A total of 18,983,588hectares were burned, 3113 houses and 33 lives lost in 15,344 bushfires in Black Summer fires. NSW had the highest number of fires, area burned, houses and lives lost for the last 20 years. Two mega-blazes occurred in NSW and burned more than in any fire season during the last 20 years. Victoria had the highest number of fires, area burned, and houses lost (except for the Black Saturday fires). SA had the highest number of houses lost in the last 20 years. Relationships between the burned area and number of fires, the houses and lives lost had positive trend for all states irrespective of the dataset. A negative relationship between the houses and lives lost for SA was the only exception. Multiple studies show that fire weather will become more severe in many regions around the world. Based on this and observed positive trends for all categories for NSW and Victoria, it is likely that the values will continue to increase in these states in the future. SA before 2019/20 was in a relatively good position showing negative trends for almost all categories. However, the 2019/20 fire season changed that for the worse. The magnitude of effect from increased fire weather may depend on how these conditions alter vegetation across Australia, however the indications shown in this analysis are concerning for fire managers.

Smoke from bushfires significantly impacted on people with cardiovascular and respiratory problems and increased mortality. It also had indirect impact on the economy by disrupting communities. The total impact of the 2019/20 bushfire season to the economy is estimated to be as much as A$40 billion. Due to the record burned area, at least 1 billion vertebrate animals were lost. It will take many years to restore the economy in impacted areas, and for animal and vegetation biodiversity to recover. Understanding of high-level trends of number of fires, area burned, houses and lives lost for the last two decades in south-eastern Australia will provide useful insights to fire managers for future strategies and policies.

}, keywords = {Behaviour, conditions, extreme fire, threshold}, issn = {626}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8160, title = {Disaster risk reduction education for children: a study in Bangladesh engaging children as co-researchers}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {379}, school = {CQUniversity}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the last decade, a number of studies have been conducted on different types of disaster education programs for children. These studies suggest that such programs enable children to be more resilient, not only in terms of increased knowledge on disaster risk reduction (DRR) but also increased preparedness and confidence. However, despite the positive findings, significant challenges still remain. In spite of generating effective DRR outcomes, the area of program development and evaluation lacks a guiding model. This includes one that speaks to both effectiveness and sustainable implementation. Disaster education programs for children are mostly designed and implemented by non-formal educators such as development and humanitarian agencies. As a result, the literature is primarily based on the evaluation of programs (such as those of Non-Government Organisations or NGOs). Many of these have been identified as having significant methodological limitations. Studies to date also typically rely on DRR knowledge indicators and do not identify the explicit elements of the programs responsible for generating specific positive outcomes. None of the studies has sought direct opinion from children regarding the process, efficacy and outcomes of such programs.\ 

Thus, this study aims to conduct rigorously designed research on DRR education for children in Bangladesh by involving children{\textquoteright}s active input and participation. In so doing, it aims to identify the specific elements of the DRR education programs for children that produce positive outcomes. Another aim is to examine implementation factors, including those structural and process factors that facilitate rather than impede sustainable implementation and child-participation.\ 

Considering the role of active child participation in this research, this study sought to empower the children by engaging them as co-researchers. Since the power inequalities between child participants and adult researchers are inevitable for obvious reasons such as age gap, lack of experience of children in the field of research and, above all, the accountability mechanism in academia, child-participation literature recommends the intriguing idea of seeking children{\textquoteright}s assistance in understanding their perspectives, instead of merely regarding them as research objects. This study therefore fostered children as co-researchers by involving them in various research activities, ranging from data collection to analysis, and importantly, in documenting the findings. To more effectively minimise the power differential, the study incorporated child-friendly methods and techniques that are built on children{\textquoteright}s competencies and interests and ensured that the children had support from each other.\ 

This study makes a significant contribution to our theoretical understanding of DRR education for children by exploring its related challenges and achievements. It provides evidence for improvements in relevant policy and practice. The recommendations made by the child co-researchers can be used as guiding principles in the design and implementation of child-centred DRR education programs in Bangladesh. Most importantly, by bringing children on board as co-researchers, this study provides a framework for engaging children in research on disasters. It therefore encourages future researchers to empower children as co-researchers and foster their genuine participation in research.\ 

}, keywords = {Bangladesh, child-centred, children, co-researchers, Disaster risk reduction, education}, author = {Mayeda Rashid} } @article {bnh-7089, title = {Disasters and economic resilience in small regional communities: the case of Toodyay}, number = {589}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disasters in Australia are very costly, and often have devastating socioeconomic effects on impacted communities. Examples in the past decade include the Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires 2009 and the Queensland Floods 2010-11, which caused significant loss of life, losses across multiple sectors (including mining and agriculture), and damage to countless homes and properties. With the severity and frequency of natural disasters expected to increase (Kitching et al., 2014), there is growing academic and policy effort towards better understanding: the risks such disasters pose on Australian communities; the impacts they have on different industry sectors and community groups; and the role that disaster risk reduction can play in minimising such impacts and building disaster resilience.

Estimating the total economic costs of natural disasters can be difficult, owing to the lack of complete and systematic data, conceptual difficulties (Kousky, 2014) and divergent predictions from growth theory about the effects of natural disasters on economic growth (Loayza et al., 2012). While the literature is inconclusive, with some studies reporting negative effects and others positive or insignificant effects (Loayza et al., 2012), a recent meta-analysis of the literature showed evidence of negative impacts in terms of direct costs (Lazzaroni and van Bergeijk, 2014), with more severe disasters causing the highest damage and increasing the likelihood of long-term and/or negative consequences (Boustan et al., 2017; Kousky, 2014).

There is also evidence of distributional effects. Economic and human losses shown to be more pronounced in poorer countries (Schumacher and Strobl, 2011), and institutional factors and educational attainment levels found to be important determinants that influence resilience and recovery (Kousky, 2014; Felbermayra and Gr{\"o}schl, 2014). Economic diversity also matters. Relying on a single economic sector for income heightens community vulnerability and elongates disaster recovery time compared to diversified economies (Cutter et al., 2008). The type and interlinkages of economic sectors also play a significant role. Due to its land-intensive nature, the agricultural sector is often adversely affected (FAO, 2015). Locally, a study of major Victorian bushfires found that industries most susceptible to direct or indirect impacts are the Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector and retail trade (Stephenson, 2010). Conversely, the construction sector may experience a boom in the immediate aftermath of the disaster as households redirect expenditure towards rebuilding that they otherwise would have deferred, only to experience a lull in the next few years once that expenditure subsides (Kousky, 2014). Even with a diversified economy structure, the interdependence of sectors can have knock-on effects (Yu et al., 2014). Thus, industries more heavily reliant on inputs from the agricultural sector are likely to experience adverse effects to their production.

While these broader examinations are useful, aggregated numbers can mask or hide very large distributive impacts, as the typical instruments used (GDP and aggregated consumption) can be misleading measures of actual welfare losses (Hallegatte S, 2014). What is missing is a systematic understanding of how these broader economic impacts of natural disasters translate to the individual level vis-{\`a}-vis income effects; how long these effects persist; and which individuals within the community bear the brunt of these costs. Indeed, regardless of a country{\textquoteright}s economic development, a lower socioeconomic status has been consistently associated with greater post-disaster hardship (Norris et al., 2002), with the poor suffering significant disaster losses due to lower financial capacity and limited access to public and private (e.g. insurance) recovery assets (Blaikie et al. 1994; Gladwin and Peacock 1997). For example, while storm damage from Hurricane Katrina was uniform across demographic groups, it was lower income individuals who were less likely to have evacuated or own cover for flood insurance (Masozera et al. 2007). Many other known vulnerabilities to disasters, such as being female, old age, or with lower educational attainment (McKenzie and Canterford, 2016), are highly correlated or interdependent with income. The link between income and disasters also extends to mental health outcomes: In the case of bushfires, the longevity of disruptions to income post-disaster has been shown to materially affect the mental health of those affected by bushfires (Gibbs et al., 2016). Thus quantifying the effects of disasters based on these social and economic dimensions can help policymakers better target and evaluate disaster mitigation recovery programs.\ 

To that end, our research program explores the impact of a number of Australian natural disasters, of various types (fires, flood and cyclone), scales (small, large), and locational settings (regional, metropolitan) on the disaster-hit individuals{\textquoteright} economic resilience (measured through their income stream). It disaggregates these impacts on individuals based on who they are (their demographic attributes), if they work (unemployed, employed), how much they work (part-time, full-time) and the industries they work for.

This report investigates the income effects of the 2009 Toodyay bushfire on the income trajectory of residents of Toodyay {\textendash} a small regional town in Western Australia with a population of 4,450 around the time of the bushfire. The fire conditions were some of the worst seen in Western Australia at the time, and burnt around 2,900 hectares, the equivalent of 2\% of the Shire of Toodyay{\textquoteright}s total area. While no casualties were reported, the total cost of damages was estimated at $100 million (FESA, 2010b).

From a policy perspective, this report contributes to a greater understanding of the potential economic effects of natural disasters on individuals and communities living in small regional towns within Australia (FIGURE 1). Toodyay is fairly typical of such small, regional Australian towns, having an ageing population within the 1,000{\textendash}4,999 population range, and an economy historically linked to agriculture, mining and manufacturing; industries which are known to be sensitive to natural disasters (Ulubasoglu et al., 2019). Such towns (~1,700 in 2016) form 9.7\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s population and are mostly concentrated around Australia{\textquoteright}s eastern seaboard (ABS, 2018).

For Western Australia in particular, it is expected that agricultural businesses in currently marginal areas, such as the Wheatbelt region (in which Toodyay is located) are most at risk from climate change (Sudmeyer et al., 2016), and so deserve particular attention when considering disaster resilience in the state.

}, keywords = {bushfires, disasters, economic resilience, regional communities, Toodyay}, issn = {589}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6994, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: the effects of the Black Saturday bushfires on individual income}, number = {580}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In an era when the reality of climate change is creating an uncertain future, it is imperative to consider the lasting impact this will have on Australia, which is historically prone to natural disasters. The increased possibility of more frequent and intense natural disasters present a number of issues for Australians, ranging from the impact on vulnerable communities to broader economic consequences.

In an effort to tackle this global phenomenon at a local level, we must turn our attention towards not only the actions required to support our businesses and communities but also to ensuring Australia is ready to adapt and become more economically disaster resilient in an ever changing environment. The urgency and delicacy of the matter is exacerbated when we consider that the average annual total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia is forecast to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017) and that fiscal constraints will be imposed on government disaster expenditure due to Australia{\textquoteright}s aging population.

When a natural disaster strikes, the damages incurred are readily assessable in the immediate aftermath of the disaster. While this information is vital to the economic dimension of disaster resilience policy, it provides little integrity to analysing the direct impact such disasters have on the Australian people and, more specifically, communities and workforces that are more vulnerable to disaster.

To that end, the Disasters and Economic Resilience: The Effects of the Black Saturday Bushfires on Individual Income {\textendash} A Case Study explores the impact of the Black Saturday bushfires (BSBs) on the income trajectory of individuals in the labour force and residents of the disaster-hit Statistical Area-2s (SA2s). These areas are depicted in red and orange in FIGURE 1.

The 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires were some of the worst bushfire conditions ever recorded globally; equivalent to 1500 of the atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima going off (SMH, 2009). One hundred and seventy-three people died; over 2,100 houses and 3,500 structures were destroyed, and thousands more suffered damage (Parliament of Victoria, 2010). The total area destroyed was around 400,000 hectares (CFA, 2009). The toll was estimated to be $3.1 billion in tangible damages and $3.9 billion in intangible costs (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first in the economics literature to examine the impact of a bushfire on individual income, considering demographic and sectoral heterogeneities at very fine units.

The report makes a unique assessment of economic resilience at an individual level (measured through changes in the income stream), and explores the effects of disaster-induced economic shocks transmitted to individuals through income-earning channels. In turn, this provides a deeper understanding of how income costs of disasters are borne by different areas of the workforce and assists policymakers in understanding the socioeconomics of natural disasters to better formulate public policies.

In an effort to assist policymakers contextualise our assessment at a broader social and economic level, this report amplifies the socioeconomic and disaster-resilience profiles of the disaster hit SA2s.

The findings of the report provide a distinctive variation from research to date by focusing on the way disasters such as the BSB affect individuals within a particular workforce and community, as well as their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

The report attempts to pinpoint the income effects observed in the BSB by using a difference-in-differences modelling approach. This approach compares the income changes of individuals living in the disaster-hit SA2s (treatment group) with those neighbouring SA2s that were not directly hit by the bushfires (control group). Because of their comparability, it is the control group that provides us with the income path that would have occurred for disaster-hit residents that were reported to be in the labour force in 2006, had the bushfires not happened, and thus enables us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) arising from the bushfires. \ 

The report utilises the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD)[1], which provides a unique opportunity to robustly examine the bushfire{\textquoteright}s impacts across a longer timeframe (across 2006, 2011 and 2016) and across multiple dimensions (demographic and economic). All results we report are net results, post any disaster relief and recovery efforts; are relative to our baseline year (2006); and are compared to our control group. We define short-term results as changes over 2006{\textendash}11, and medium-term results as changes over 2006{\textendash}16.

Our framework was developed to capture income effects following the bushfires. Data limitations impede our ability to confirm some of the assumptions of our modelling approach, but we have taken a number of steps to alleviate the likely impact of these limitations on the reliability of our findings.

Nevertheless, to the best of our knowledge, our report is the first one utilizing three ABS Censuses to explore income effects of bushfires more comprehensively. Our findings offer compelling insights on how disasters like the BSB affect local economies, individuals within the community, and in turn their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, bushfires, disaster resilience, economic resilience, income}, issn = {580}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Yasin Onder} } @article {bnh-6989, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: the effects of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on individual income: a case study on the Brisbane River catchment area}, number = {577}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australians are all too familiar with disasters arising from natural hazards like bushfires, cyclones, and floods. With climate change, we face the possibility of more frequent and intense natural hazards in new and unexpected places.

As we enter an uncertain decade, we find ourselves increasingly asking: What does a disaster-resilient Australia look like? How can we help our most vulnerable Australian communities endure the cumulative effects of frequent disasters? Amid tightening fiscal budgets, how can we create the right environment for our communities and economy to prosper in this new reality?

Answering these questions requires some deep thinking about the collective actions needed to support our communities, businesses, and the broader economy to become more disaster resilient; to not only adapt to a {\textquotedblleft}new normal{\textquotedblright} but thrive in a changing climate. From a policy perspective, this becomes more pertinent when we consider that the average annual total economic costs of natural disasters of Australia are forecast to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017),[1] and the fiscal constraints that will increasingly be imposed on government disaster expenditure by Australia{\textquoteright}s aging population.

To that end, the Disasters and Economic Resilience: The Effects of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on Individual Income {\textendash} A Case Study on the Brisbane River Catchment Area report explores the impact of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on the income trajectory of employed residents of the four Brisbane River Catchment Area (BRCA) local government areas (LGAs) depicted in Figure 1.

The Queensland Floods 2010-11 remain one of Australia{\textquoteright}s costliest flooding events, causing an estimated $6.7 billion in tangible damages, with an overall cost of $14.1 billion (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first in the economics literature to examine the impact of a riverine-flooding in an Australian metropolitan economy on individual income, considering demographic and sectoral heterogeneities and post-disaster government assistance.

By focusing on individuals{\textquoteright} economic resilience (measured through changes in their income stream), the report explores how disaster-induced economic shocks can be transmitted to individuals vis-{\`a}-vis income-earning channels, and offers a greater understanding of how indirect costs of disasters are borne by different segments of the workforce. Such costs are currently less known compared to direct damages reported in the immediate aftermath of disasters.

By examining the economic dimension of disaster resilience at the individual level, our research helps policymakers better understand the socioeconomics of natural disasters and formulate public policies in a sustainable way that better distributes scarce budgets and resources towards vulnerable socioeconomic groups and industries of employment that are more sensitive to disasters.

Recognising the profound and long-lasting psychosocial impacts of the floods, the report outlines the socioeconomic and disaster resilience profiles of the BRCA LGAs, and provides additional information to contextualise our assessment so that policymakers can holistically interpret our findings, within the broader social and economic conditions arising from the floods.\ 

Isolating the effects of the floods from other shocks that hit the BRCA LGAs is challenging. The report attempts to pinpoint observed income effects to the Queensland Floods 2010-11 by using a difference-in-differences modelling approach. This approach compares income changes of individuals living in the BRCA LGAs (treatment group) with those living in comparable zones in Australia (control group). Because of their comparability, it is the control group which provides us with the income path that would have occurred for BRCA LGA employed residents had the floods not happened, and thus enable us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) arisfrom the floods. \ 

The report utilises the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD), which provides a unique opportunity to robustly examine the flood{\textquoteright}s impacts across a longer timeframe (across 2006, 2011 and 2016) and across multiple dimensions (demographic and economic). All results we report are net results, post any disaster relief and recovery efforts; are relative to our baseline year (2006); and are compared to our control group. We define short-term results as changes over 2006-11, and medium-term results as changes over 2006-16.

While we develop the right modelling framework to capture income effects arising from the floods, data limitations have hampered our ability to statistically confirm that our control group is comparable to the BRCA LGA sample. The key implication is that our findings are not causal but correlational.

Nevertheless, our report{\textquoteright}s findings offer new and compelling insights on how disasters like the Queensland Floods 2010-11 interact with existing economic conditions and workforce compositions to affect individuals within the community, and in turn their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

}, keywords = {case study, disasters, economic resilience, Floods}, issn = {577}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Farah Beaini} } @article {bnh-7006, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: the income effects of the Cyclone Oswald 2013 on small business owners}, number = {581}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

"With five events in two years and the recently released Climate Commission Report that indicates our region can expect higher risk of heavy rainfall, there is a responsibility to at least identify the real cost to the community of flood events"\  {\textendash} Mark Pitt, CEO, North Burnett Regional Council (2013)

Small businesses are regarded as the backbone of Australia{\textquoteright}s economy, forming up to 98\% of Australian businesses and employing around 44\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s private sector workforce (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2018). In some sectors like agriculture and construction, small businesses represent over 70\% of all businesses (Gilfillan, 2018).

Beyond employment, small businesses are integral to the social fabric of their communities, supporting local initiatives and providing important physical places for community members to socialise and engage with each other. This is especially true for regional areas with tight-knit communities.

Despite their economic importance, little empirical research has been done to understand the impact of natural disasters[1] on small businesses, and the efficacy of government assistance programs in promoting their recovery.

To that end, the Disasters and Economic Resilience: The income effects of Cyclone Oswald 2013 on Small Business Owners {\textendash} a case study on the Burnett River Catchment Area report explores the impact of ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald 2013 on the incomes of small business owners residing in the four Burnett River Catchment local government areas (LGAs) depicted in FIGURE 1.

From 22 to 29 January 2013, Category 1 ex-tropical Cyclone Oswald moved across parts of Queensland and New South Wales, causing severe storms, flooding and tornadoes. The associated flooding and extreme weather events were declared a disaster in 53 Queensland LGAs, with the most devastating felt in the Bundaberg and North Burnett regions, damaging key infrastructure including sewerage systems and economically important assets including ports and road networks relied on by agricultural and manufacturing enterprises in the area. The record flooding in Bundaberg forced the evacuation of over 7,500 residents and damaged over 2,000 homes.

Thus, the flooding events associated with Cyclone Oswald that occurred in this region present a unique opportunity to causally investigate the impacts of a major disaster on small businesses in a regional community with an important agricultural base.

Isolating the effects of the floods from other shocks that hit the Burnett River catchment LGAs is challenging. The report pinpoints the income effects of Cyclone Oswald 2013 by using a difference-in-differences modelling approach. This approach compares the income changes of small business owners living in the Burnett River Catchment LGAs (treatment group) with those living in the comparable Richmond Valley LGAs in New South Wales (control group). Because of their comparability, it is the control group which provides us with the income path that would have occurred for the Burnett small business owners had the floods not happened, and thus enable us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) arising from the associated flooding events.\ 

The report utilises the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD), which provides a unique opportunity to robustly examine the flood{\textquoteright}s impacts. Our results are net results, post any disaster relief and recovery efforts; are relative to our baseline year (2011); and are compared to our control group. As the Census date allow us to explore the effects up to three years post Cyclone Oswald, we define our 2011-2016 results as medium-term results.

}, keywords = {cyclone, disasters, economic resilience, income effects, small businesses}, issn = {581}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6810, title = {Diversity and inclusion: Building strength and capability - Annual Report 2019}, number = {558}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Emergency Management Sector (EMS) is a diverse and complex sector whose key purpose is the protection of life and property by implementing {\textquoteleft}a range of measures to manage risks to communities and environments{\textquoteright} (Emergency Management Australia, 1998, p39). Their scope of activities spans the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR) spectrum and requires a range of activities that contribute to the wellbeing of communities.

The context in which many of these organisations operate is changing due to:

As these drivers are dynamic and systemic, they are changing the focus of EMS activities from shorter-term tactical approaches across the PPRR spectrum, to longer-term strategic approaches that focus on future outcomes. These drivers are also driving the need to innovate across the EMS and develop new services that aim to increase resilience of both the organisations themselves and the community. This is fundamentally changing the nature of the relationship EMS has with the community from delivering a service to them to working with them. (Young et al. 2018). There is also a recognition that emergency services need to better reflect the communities they work to serve (NEMC 2011) to achieve this outcome. Effective diversity and inclusion are central to this agenda.

Currently, there are {\textquoteleft}unacceptably low levels of diversity{\textquoteright} in the EMS (AFAC 2016). There is however, a growing awareness that there are a number of benefits that can result from increasing diversity in organisations. However, effective implementation is complex due to:

If EMS organisations are to capitalise on the emerging opportunities and fulfil their future potential in this area, they will need to develop new ways of thinking and working. Diversity is not new to EMS organisations and there are existing strengths and knowledge that can be built upon. Understanding what is effective, and why and how this agenda can be progressed, is critical to achieving future outcomes.

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity, inclusion, strength}, issn = {558}, author = {Celeste Young} } @article {bnh-7468, title = {Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability {\textendash} annual report 2019{\textendash}2020}, number = {623}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

{\textquoteleft}Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability{\textquoteright} is a three-year project commissioned by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, which commenced in July 2017 and has just completed its third year of exploration. It has been a challenging year in terms of delivery, and the project has had to adjust its research plan to accommodate the unprecedented bushfires and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have impacted the university and the stakeholder organisations. As a result, the project will now deliver the final outputs for the project in the second half of 2020.

During the third phase, we have focused our activities around consolidating key findings in the organisational stream and testing these in another industry to look for commonalities and points of divergence. New needs that emerged from the second year review highlight the necessity for further indepth review in relation to the economic and community areas. Activities have continued with a case study approach and three reports have been completed.

Key areas of focus for this phase have been as follows:

Key findings from this phase of the research are as follows:

Stakeholder engagement has been limited during this phase, as it was put on hold between November 2019 and April 2020. Where possible, we have maintained contact through individual interactions. We have also had a reduced level of outreach such as presentations due to the cancellation of a number of conferences, however the project team was involved in three presentations at the 2019 AFAC conference.

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity, inclusion, strength}, issn = {623}, author = {Celeste Young} } @article {bnh-7227, title = {Diversity and inclusion framework for emergency management policy and practice}, number = {602}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Emergency Management Sector (EMS) is made up of diverse organisations, and its scope of activity spans the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR) spectrum for a wide variety of hazards. This requires an array of activities that contribute to the safety and wellbeing of communities and those within their organisations. The EMS is also undergoing dynamic change, of which human diversity is one key element. The sector has recognised that it needs to better reflect the communities it works with, and that it has {\textquoteleft}unacceptably low levels of diversity{\textquoteright} (National Strategy for Disaster Resilience, COAG, 2011). Inclusion is seen as an essential part of this process, but policy, management and practice need further development if the sector is to achieve functioning inclusive organisations who reflect the diverse communities they serve.

Diversity and inclusion (D\&I) are different but deeply entwined. Diversity can be seen as a variety of people who have different and unique characteristics. This difference can be determined by aspects such as their cultural or social background, their age, the way they think, their physical attributes or their gender or a combination of these. Increasing diversity creates a different dynamic, and inclusion is the action that is undertaken to manage this change. It is also the tool that ensures that the increased diversity is effective in serving the organisational or community needs, and does not create a risk for the community or the organisation.\ 

Although the nature and measurement of diversity is being better recognised and understood, the management and measurement of inclusion is still evolving. This is an area of innovation where not everything will work. New approaches need to be developed and adapted to suit the myriad of different contexts throughout the sector. This has resulted in numerous D\&I programs at sectoral and organisational levels. However, the effectiveness of past and present programs, and what constitutes good management and measurement, is still emerging (Young et al., 2018).\ \ 

There is often tension between the core work of EMS organisations, as the development of D\&I is often seen as a secondary activity that is a cost to the workforce rather than an investment in the future workforce. This tension has been exacerbated by deeply entrenched cultural and institutional factors. This framework aims to provide a basis for practitioners to address these issues through a strength-based approach, which builds upon current practice and expertise in the sector.\ 

The framework has been developed in response to needs that were identified in collaboration with practitioners across the sector, which included:

The framework has been developed, tested and refined in collaboration with emergency management experts, and draws on the following reports from the project:

Diversity and inclusion is not a simple problem with easy solutions. It is a dynamic situation that requires ongoing management. This means that standard notions of success and failure can be problematic, which is why this framework focuses on what has been found to be effective.\ 

As the EMS is diverse in terms of organisational composition, capability and context, what is possible and {\textquoteleft}doable{\textquoteright} will be different for each organisation. To account for this, this framework is deliberately not prescriptive. Its aim is to support and guide practitioners to develop and integrate D\&I practice, so that it becomes accepted as part of the day-to-day activities and {\textquoteleft}how things are done{\textquoteright}.\ 

This framework will be supported by two further documents that will focus on management and measurement practices.

}, keywords = {diversity and inclusion, Emergency management, framework, Policy, practice}, issn = {602}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-8140, title = {Diversity and inclusion: towards a better understanding of management and measurement - policy paper}, number = {696}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Having effective diversity and inclusion (D\&I) in emergency management organisations (EMOs) can improve their internal\ performance, and contribute to organisational and community capacities to manage disaster risk and resilience building. A\ diverse workforce provides a broad range of perspectives, experiences and skills. An inclusively-managed diverse workforce\ can support better decision making. It can also support better management of the increasingly unfamiliar risks that\ society is experiencing. Inclusion is also central to building productive working relationships and trust with the community. However, the benefits of D\&I are poorly understood, and are often overlooked because they are hard to measure and\ account for.

This paper summarises the main concepts, findings and the framework that has been developed to support more effective\ management and measurement of D\&I in EMOs.

Key findings in relation to D\&I in the emergency management sector (EMS) are:

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity, Emergency management, inclusion, management, measurement, strength}, issn = {696}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-6754, title = {Drivers of long-distance spotting during wildfires in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, abstract = {

We analysed the influence of wildfire area, topography, fuel, surface weather and upper-level weather conditions on long-distance spotting during wildfires. The analysis was based on a large dataset of 338 observations, from aircraft-acquired optical line scans, of spotting wildfires in south-east Australia between 2002 and 2018. Source fire area (a measure of fire activity) was the most important predictor of maximum spotting distance and the number of long-distance spot fires produced (i.e. \>500 m from a source fire). Weather (surface and upper-level), vegetation and topographic variables had important secondary effects. Spotting distance and number of long-distance spot fires increased strongly with increasing source fire area, particularly under strong winds and in areas containing dense forest and steep slopes. General vegetation descriptors better predicted spotting compared with bark hazard and presence variables, suggesting systems that measure and map bark spotting potential need improvement. The results from this study have important implications for the development of predictive spotting and wildfire behaviour models.

}, keywords = {Fire behaviour, line scan, spot fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19124}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF19124}, author = {Michael Storey and Owen Price and Jason J. Sharples and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-7811, title = {Driving into floodwater: using data from emergency responders to inform workplace safety policy and practice}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {26-34}, abstract = {

Since 2001, approximately 45 per cent of all flood fatalities in Australia are attributed to people entering floodwater in motor vehicles. This behaviour is considered high-risk and avoidable. However, for emergency services personnel performing their duties, there may be additional pressure to take on such risks. In Victoria, the Victoria State Emergency Service (VICSES) is the control agency for floods and storms and its personnel encounter floodwater frequently. At an organisational level, good workplace health and safety practices are fundamental and duty of care is of paramount importance. VICSES personnel are discouraged from driving through floodwater; an exception being when responding to life-threatening situations. Doing so exposes staff to personal harm and driving through floodwater in work vehicles can result in vehicle and equipment damage. There is also the potential for VICSES reputation damage if people observe VICSES personnel driving into floodwaters and not heeding safety advice to {\textquoteright}never drive (walk, or ride) through floodwater{\textquoteright}. This raises public safety concerns if people take similar risks. This paper presents findings from a larger study into the circumstances in which SES personnel drive through floodwater in SES or private vehicles. Outcomes from this research will inform policy, practice and training to improve safety, keep staff and equipment safe and model good practice in communities.

}, keywords = {data, Driving, emergency responders, floodwater, Policy, practice, workplace safety}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2020-driving-into-floodwater-using-data-from-emergency-responders-to-inform-workplace-safety-policy-and-practice/}, author = {Mel Taylor and Tim Wiebusch and Benjamin Beccari and Katharine Haynes and Mozumdar Arifa Ahmed and Matalena Tofa} } @article {bnh-7186, title = {Earthquake mitigation of WA regional towns: York case study - final report}, number = {596}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Earthquake hazard was only fully recognised for Australian building design in the early 1990{\textquoteright}s following the Newcastle Earthquake of 1989. This has resulted in a significant legacy of Australian buildings that are inherently more vulnerable to low to moderate earthquake generated ground motion. Having accessible knowledge of the most effective measures to retrofit older masonry buildings will enable and encourage the strengthening of buildings resulting in more resilient communities.

Western Australia has a region of elevated seismicity inland from Perth where there are located several older regional towns having a predominance of older unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings. In 1968 the town of Meckering was devastated by an earthquake (Gordon et al, 1980), which destroyed the town{\textquoteright}s URM building stock and damaged URM buildings in other neighbouring towns. The town of York, situated approximately 37km from the epicentre was also significantly damaged (Everingham et al, 1982). The combination of high hazard and vulnerability in this region points to a need for informed mitigation measures.

This project entailed undertaking a mitigation implementation study of York, Western Australia{\textquoteright}s oldest inland town, which has many valuable historical buildings that are vulnerable to damage by a large earthquake. This utilisation project sits beneath and draws upon the vulnerability and economic modelling research outcomes of the BNHCRC project {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright}. Utilising the outcomes of the project a range of mitigation strategies have been virtually applied to the town{\textquoteright}s URM buildings. This has enabled an assessment of the effectiveness of these interventions on community risk and emergency management (EM) logistics in the context of rare, but credible, earthquakes.

In this report the research and its outcomes are presented and discussed. Further, recommendations are made for future retrofit strategy implementation in York and more broadly in Western Australia. In particular, a new NDRP project is described that will build upon this BNHCRC project in testing the application of the measures in actual retrofit work undertaken in York. This BNHCRC project has been led by the University of Adelaide (UoA) with project partner Geoscience Australia (GA). The end users are the Shire of York and the WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) with valuable contributions made by the WA Department of Planning, Lands and Heritage. Through the workshop activity reported there have also been valuable guidance from Engineering Heritage, WA, and the Insurance Australia Group (IAG).

}, keywords = {earthquake, mitigation, regional towns, york}, issn = {596}, author = {Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and Michael Griffith and Mark Edwards and Neil Corby and Itismita Mohanty and Jaroslav Vaculik and Trevor Allen} } @article {bnh-6744, title = {East Coast Low extreme weather scenario}, number = {548}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fictional scenario developed for use at\ the 12th Australasian Natural Hazards\ Management Conference, developed in\ partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology,\ Geoscience Australia and Risk Frontiers. This\ scenario should be read in conjunction with\ the report on the 12th Australasian Natural\ Hazards Management Conference, Cascading\ extreme weather beyond our experience: are\ we ready?, published by the Bushfire and\ Natural Hazards CRC.

This scenario has been developed for the 12th\ Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference.\ It is based on climate, environment and weather events\ that are plausible. The combination of events, locations,\ areas of impact and human behavior are not based on\ any real event.

As you see what unfolds during the scenario, we ask you\ to focus on the nature and scale of the events that are\ unfolding, and the connections between them. And to\ begin thinking {\textquoteleft}what could we do to reduce, minimise or\ avoid the short and long-term impacts?{\textquoteright}

The hypothetical event is based in New South Wales,\ but can, and should, be considered in the context of any\ equivalent location across Australia or New Zealand.\ 

The impacts capture a range of likely outcomes to\ illustrate the extent of the effects of the weather\ scenario, but do not attempt to catalogue all of the\ impacts and their extent.

}, keywords = {east coast low, extreme weather, Planning, scenario}, issn = {548}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-6906, title = {The economic benefits of the Indigenous Fire and Rescue Employment Strategy (IFARES) Program: Fire and Rescue New South Wales}, number = {567}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The main purpose of the Indigenous Fire and Rescue Employment Strategy (IFARES) was to reduce the barriers to Indigenous employment. It has also been seen as a way of promoting greater engagement with Indigenous communities, improving fire safety within these communities and learning from traditional knowledge about fire management.

This study details the costs and benefits (both tangible and intangible) of the program. It estimates these by modelling different benefit and cost components. It finds the total benefits of the program to be around $8 million and estimates a benefit-cost ratio of 20, meaning that for every dollar invested in the program, the benefits to the community are approximately 20 times the amount invested. The intangible benefits are gleaned from a number of other sources, such as interviews with people involved with the program and media reports. The estimates of costs are largely based on data provided by Fire and Rescue New South Wales (FRNSW).

Indigenous Australians suffer from severe disadvantage on several levels, including employment opportunities, poor health, and limited education, all of which further constrain their employment prospects. Data from the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey (NATSISS) conducted by the ABS (2016), demonstrates this disadvantage by comparing each of these variables for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. For example, the unemployment rate among Indigenous Australians is 20.6 per cent compared to 6 per cent among non-Indigenous Australians, and only 25.7 per cent of Indigenous Australians have completed Year 12 or equivalent compared to 55.2 per cent of non-Indigenous Australians. An Australian Institute of Health and Welfare study (AIHW 2011) suggested that the total burden of disease for Indigenous Australians was 429.4 DALYs per 1000 compared to 185 per 1000 for non-Indigenous Australians.

The IFARES was initiated in 2013 by FRNSW to help breakdown longstanding barriers to Indigenous recruitment to the fire services. Data from IFARES demonstrates the success of the program, where registrations have increased from 18 in 2014 to 235 in 2016. Overall, 49 fire fighters have been employed from the program and 1 into administration.

This study modelled the benefits of the program by taking into consideration: the reduced unemployment benefits arising from the program; working life returns after leaving the program; health benefits to the recruited firefighters; and the community health benefits arising from graduates of the course brought to their communities by increasing their awareness of health issues and making healthier choices. The study then estimated the benefit-cost ratio by taking account of the costs of the program.

Interviews with people involved in the program and media reports have helped identify some of the intangible benefits of the program. These included improving the self-confidence of people (particularly females) in Indigenous communities, whose members became fire fighters. Increasing the diversity of the fire services has led to greater social cohesion and improved engagement of the fire services with Indigenous communities, which in turn has led to greater fire safety. The Indigenous contingent of the fire services has also contributed to the service by bringing in unique skills through their understanding of the country.

}, keywords = {benefits, economy, fire and rescue, indigenous}, issn = {567}, author = {Bruce Rasmussen and Neelam Maharaj} } @article {bnh-6822, title = {Effect of relative humidity on grassfire propagation}, number = {561}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The relative humidity of air is directly related to fuel moisture. Fuel moisture is often considered as the index of flammability in the context of bushfires. Variation of relative humidity and fuel moisture is considered to have a significant effect on the rate of spread of grassfire propagation and fire intensity. In this study, two sets of grassfire simulations have been conducted: one set with 0.21m grass and another set with 0.175m grass. For both sets the ambient temperature was kept constant while the relative humidity and fuel moisture were varied, with fuel moisture deduced from the McArthur MKIII-V GFDI model. A lower relative humidity was observed to lead to higher fire intensity and a faster rate of spread, which are intuitively expected. Froude number analysis showed that relative humidity can lead to change in the fire propagation mode (wind driven vs buoyancy driven), but the greater factor appears to be grass height (fuel load).

}, keywords = {grassfire, modelling, propagation, relative humidity}, issn = {561}, author = {Khalid Moinuddin and Tehmina Khan and Duncan Sutherland} } @article {bnh-7240, title = {Effects of the January 2020 bushfires on estuarine systems of Kangaroo Island: post event field data collection}, number = {603}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 2020 summer bushfires on Kangaroo Island were the largest in the Island{\textquoteright}s recorded history, with over 200,000 hectares and more than 40 \% of the island burnt (DEW, 2020). The impacts of these bushfires will not be confined to the terrestrial landscape and are likely to have substantial detrimental impacts on the island{\textquoteright}s aquatic systems, particularly after rainfall.

Post-fire exposed soils are highly erodible, and therefore intense precipitation events or seasonal rainfall can result in the runoff of nutrients and ash enriched sediments, debris and other products of combustion into waterways. These runoff events, allied to heavy sedimentation, can lead to deteriorating water quality, potentially triggering eutrophication, low oxygen events, and compromise aquatic fauna. In addition, contaminants, including trace elements and products of combustion such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) can also enter waterways (Olivella et al 2006, Shakesby and Doerr, 2006, Smith et al 2011, Sequeira et al 2020).

One area of concern in Kangaroo Island are the estuarine systems downstream or adjacent to burnt areas. Despite the ecological importance of estuarine environments and the multiple ecosystem functions they provide (including nursery grounds for juvenile fish), the impacts of bushfires in estuaries are yet to be investigated. Furthermore, because estuarine systems in Kangaroo island are not permanently open to the sea, the impacts of accumulated soot, ash and sediment channelled into estuaries could be exacerbated, and have the potential to disrupt complex ecological and biogeochemical cycles, increase contaminant loadings and result in pervasive effects for local fish communities. Ultimately, there are substantial knowledge gaps in our understanding of water quality impacts and mobilisation of heavy metals and isotopes in the aftermath of bushfires in estuaries, and these add to the lack of understanding of the ecology and geochemistry of estuaries in South Australia.

In this context, the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, via the their quick response funding, provided financial support for travel-related expenses to undertake surveys on Kangaroo Island in estuaries within areas directly affected by this unprecedented bushfire season, and control sites outside these areas. These sampling events are part of broader research where in the long term, we aim to evaluate the impacts of bushfires on estuarine water quality and on estuarine fish, as well as trace the mobilisation and fluxes of contaminants released by bushfires into estuarine systems.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, data collection, estuarine system, kangaroo island}, issn = {603}, author = {Patrick Reis-Santos and Bronwyn Gillanders} } @article {bnh-6985, title = {Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering: annual report 2018-19}, number = {574}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project is being jointly undertaken by researchers at RMIT University, the University of Western Australia, and Curtin University for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC). It is the only core project in the BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s research cluster on Sustainable Volunteering that is in active research phase. The goal of this cluster is to improve the long-term sustainability of the volunteer workforce, and better engage the potential of volunteering to build disaster resilience in Australian communities.

The Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project has two broad aims, each of which is addressed by a targeted package of work:

The project complements\ other active BNHCRC research projects, especially in the Emergency management capability cluster (e.g. Diversity and inclusion: building strength and capability and Catastrophic and cascading events: planning and capability projects). It also draws from work in two completed projects: the Bushfire CRC Volunteerism project (2003-2010) undertaken by researchers at La Trobe University and the BNHCRC Out of uniform: building community resilience through non-traditional volunteering project (2015-2017), which was a precursor to the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project based at RMIT University.\ 

This Annual Report communicates the key activities and achievements of the Enabling sustainable emergency volunteering project in the 2018-2019 financial year. This was the second year of the project. The research phase of the project is due to end in June 2020.

}, keywords = {annual report, emergency volunteering, sustainable}, issn = {574}, author = {Blythe McLennan and Patrick Dunlop and Darja Kragt and Tarn Kruger and Djurre Holtrop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Hawa Farid} } @article {bnh-7029, title = {Estimating carbon stocks and biomass in surface fuel layers}, number = {586}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report we describe a simple model that can be used to estimate carbon

(C) stocks in surface fuel layers for C accounting purposes. We used empirical data collected from dry sclerophyll forests from a range of sites in Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. This information was used to develop an easy-to-use tool to improve estimates of C emissions from prescribed burning. Models developed using data from each state have been reported previously {\textendash} here we present an evaluation of a universal model developed using the complete empirical dataset for all sites in all three states, and two separate models ({\textquoteleft}universal{\textquoteright} models) developed using data from all the sites burnt by prescribed fires and nearby unburnt sites.

Samples of the near-surface fuel layer were separated into three fractions: fine fuel (\<9 mm diameter), intact leaves, and twigs and other material such as fruits, flowers and bark. The dry weight and C content of each fraction was determined. To model biomass and C content of surface fuels, a mixture design was used. For each site, the proportion of the total fuel load of each of the three surface litter fractions was used as an independent factor (x1, x2, and x3), and the corresponding total fuel load (t ha-1) or C content (t C ha-1) was used as the dependent factor. A response surface was fitted to the mixture design using a Generalised Blending Mixture model (GBM) and a polynomial equation for each response was generated by running the GBM with varying numbers of terms included in the response surface equation. To determine the best fitting equation, Akaike information criterion (AICc) was used as a measure of the relative quality of the response surface for a given set of data in relation to other model iterations. Data were randomly assigned into an 80:20 split for training and testing of the response surface of the model. Models were also validated against a second set of data collected from high and low productivity forest sites. This additional information improved data spread and, thus, model testing.

The response surfaces fitted to data showed reasonable agreement with the data but the universal model (burnt and unburnt data from all sites combined) tended to be unreliable with both over- and underpredictions depending upon which dataset was being used for testing or validation. Universal models created using data from all burnt or unburnt sites were better than other trained models for predicting of biomass or C content in relation to fire history.

}, keywords = {biomass, carbon stocks, estimates, surface fuel layers}, issn = {586}, author = {Danica Parnell and Malcolm Possell and Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-7470, title = {Exploring the soil moisture-live fuel moisture relationship}, number = {624}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Live fuel moisture content is a key factor that determines the flammability of vegetation in ecosystems. Prediction of live fuel moisture content is inherently a very difficult problem since it is modulated by the complex physiological, phenological and ecological processes characteristic of the plant species. Soil moisture is one of the key variables that is known to influence plant water use. Recently, a new live fuel moisture content near-real-time product has been developed for Australia using a radiative transfer model inversion technique on the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer reflectance data. This live fuel moisture content product forms the basis of the Australian Flammability Monitoring System. At the same time, an advanced soil moisture analysis system has been developed by the Bureau of Meteorology recently, called the Joint United Kingdom Land Environment Simulator based Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN). JASMIN can estimate soil moisture at 5 km resolution on a daily timestep for the whole of Australia.

The present study brings together the above two products and explores the live fuel moisture content{\textendash}soil moisture relationship on a national scale. This study will report the preliminary work carried out in understanding live fuel moisture content{\textendash}soil moisture relationship and suggests an approach that may be constructive in advancing the ability to predict live fuel moisture content reliably to support fire management. A preliminary analysis is being conducted over 60 selected locations where JASMIN is found to have good skill. These 60 sites together represent a range of land cover types and climate zones typical of the Australian landscape. All the possible soil moisture profiles that can be derived from the four JASMIN soil layers are used for the analysis. Lag-correlation analysis shows that the strength of the relationship between live fuel moisture content and soil moisture varies from site to site and in general, is moderately strong (median lag-correlation of ~0.5). However, the strength of the relationship varies with vegetation type and also with soil profile depth. At all the sites, soil moisture is found to be an (important) leading indicator of live fuel moisture content. The lag also varies with the location and is found to range from days to months. Except for the forested sites, the top two soil layers exhibit a higher correlation with live fuel moisture content compared to the deeper layers. We develop a simple model to predict live fuel moisture content. The model is found to have good skill with an average R2 of 0.64 over the 60 sites. The normalized root mean square error for the model prediction is found to be less than 25\% in general.

}, keywords = {live fuel moisture, Soil moisture}, issn = {624}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Marta Yebra and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {bnh-6781, title = {Final report on vulnerability of as-built and retrofitted LDRC buildings}, number = {551}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Previous Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC (BNH CRC) reports have presented the fragility curves for reinforced concrete buildings that are supported by reinforced concrete walls and moment resisting frames, and the fragility curves for this type of buildings with four retrofitting options. This study presents the vulnerability curves for these buildings presented in terms of damage factor, which is the ratio of the repair cost to the replacement cost for the buildings. This report contributes to the project {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk{\textquotedblright} which is aimed to develop knowledge to facilitate evidence-based informed decision making in relation to the need for seismic retrofitting, revision of codified design requirement, and insurance policy.

}, keywords = {as-built, buildings, retrofit, Vulnerability}, issn = {551}, author = {Elisa Lumantarna and Nelson Lam and Hing-Ho Tsang and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @article {bnh-7495, title = {Fire coalescence and mass spot fire dynamics: experimentation, modelling and simulation {\textendash} annual project report 2019-2020}, number = {625}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This report outlines the progress of the Fire Coalescence and Mass Spot Fire Dynamics project, which is one of the projects within the Next Generation Fire Modelling cluster. Specifically, the report summarises progress of the first two years of the second phase of the project, which has been extended over 2018-2021.

All milestones from the 2015-2018 phase of the project have now been delivered, and the project is continuing to build upon this work in delivering important insights into the dynamics of fire behaviour and fire line interaction. Phase 2 of the experimental program is in progress, and will extend recently published work from Phase 1. The project continues to yield important and significant insights into the behaviour of coalescing fires, and these insights are enhancing our understanding of the processes driving fire propagation and the way we model dynamic fire behaviours. \ 

In particular, the research has continued to develop the pyrogenic potential model by incorporating firebrand dynamics. This has resulted in the world{\textquoteright}s first capability to model dynamic modes of fire propagation such as vorticity-driven lateral spread using a two-dimensional simulation framework with a spotting module. This means that explicitly modelling such effects in operational timeframes is now a feasible option. The research has also examined how wind-terrain interaction influences ember trajectories and the likely distribution of spot fires down wind of complex terrain.

In the past year, the project team have delivered a number of research outputs, including conference presentations and posters and journal publications. Still more publications are in preparation. The project team has also delivered on a number of key utilisation activities. These have mainly involved discussions with key end users about the prospects of the research being incorporated into education materials and training resources for firefighters and fire behaviour analysts. The project has also begun working on a dedicated utilisation project aimed at development of spot fire spatial mapping tools.

After providing some background information on the project{\textquoteright}s aims and methodology, this report provides details on the progress of the project to date. In particular, this includes:

At the time of writing, the project is on-schedule.

}, keywords = {experimentation, fire coalescence, mass spot fire dynamics, modelling, simulation}, issn = {625}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew and Badlan, R} } @article {bnh-6811, title = {Fire coalescence and mass spot fire dynamics: experimentation, modelling and simulation - Annual project report 2018-2019}, number = {559}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report outlines the progress of the Fire Coalescence and Mass Spot Fire Dynamics project, which is one of the projects within the Next Generation Fire Modelling cluster. Specifically, the report summarises progress of the first year of the second phase of the project, which has been extended over 2018-2021.

All milestones from the 2015-2018 phase of the project have now been delivered, and the project is continuing to build upon this work in delivering important insights into the dynamics of fire behaviour and fire line interaction. Phase 2 of the experimental program is in progress, and will extend recently published work from Phase 1. The project continues to yield important and significant insights into the behaviour of coalescing fires, and these insights are enhancing our understanding of the processes driving fire propagation and the way we model dynamic fire behaviours. \ 

In particular, the research has continued to develop the pyrogenic potential model by incorporating the effects of pyrogenic vorticity. This has resulted in the world{\textquoteright}s first capability to model dynamic modes of fire propagation such as vorticity-driven lateral spread using a two-dimensional simulation framework. This means that explicitly modelling such effects in operational timeframes is now a feasible option. Coupled fire-atmosphere simulations continue to provide fundamental insights that will be drawn upon to inform further the development of the pyrogenic potential model.

In the past year, the project team have delivered a number of research outputs, including conference presentations and posters and a journal publication (currently under review). A number of other publications are in preparation. The project team has also delivered on a number of key utilisation activities. These have mainly involved discussions with key end-users about the prospects of the research being incorporated into education materials and training resources for firefighters and fire behaviour analysts.

After providing some background information on the project{\textquoteright}s aims and methodology, this report provides details on the progress of the project to date. In particular, this includes:

At the time of writing, the project is on schedule.

}, keywords = {experimentation, fire coalescence, modelling, simulation, spot fire dynamics}, issn = {559}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and James Hilton and Sullivan, Andrew} } @article {bnh-6900, title = {Fire spread prediction across fuel types: annual report 2018-19}, number = {564}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The prediction of the rate of spread and intensity of bushfires is crucial for emergency and disaster management organisations for operational planning and the deployment of resources.\  Currently, simplified operational models are used since the prediction can be obtained on time scales commensurate with those required by emergency managers. Our aim is to refine these non-physics-based operational tools so that they can predict fire behaviour under a wide range of localised topographic and weather conditions, and also that they are able to account for a range of inhomogeneity, slope, and thermal instability within vegetation and over the terrain. Furthermore, a more physically-motivated firebrand model needs to be included in operational models to predict firebrand landing and the increased rate of fire spread (RoS).

In the last few years, we have numerically tested and established a reliable physics-based model that is based on basic fire dynamics theory and corresponding differential equations to simulate bushfire scenarios. We now embark upon utilization of our research as well as extending parametric study using the physics-based model. The following aspects have been the highlights of our endeavour:

Overall we have achieved our goal to obtain greater insight into bushfire physics and we are now utilising these insights to parameterise various phenomenon for operational models.

}, keywords = {fire spread, fuel types, prediction}, issn = {564}, author = {Mahmood Rashid and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-7377, title = {Follow up of study participants: brain plasticity and divergent thinking}, number = {613}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Unprecedented future disasters will require those in emergency management to be creative in their thinking. The backbone of creativity is divergent thinking; cognitive thoughts that do not converge on one correct answer but diverge to a range of possible options. This Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project has explored the skills associated with divergent thinking during a series of workshops conducted with our end-user partners agencies.

This document identifies the results from a series of interviews conducted with end-user participants to understand the utilisation of the research provided in the series of workshops on divergent thinking.

Results indicate that the maturity of those agencies involved in this project regarding the utilisation of the divergent thinking research within their individual agency was in the {\textquoteleft}developing{\textquoteright} phase.

This low level of maturity can be attributed to a lack of formalised research utilisation structures within agencies that are hampered by resource and financial constraints. Compounding the ability for agencies to fully utilise research outputs are the challenges of embedding research within the entire policy cycle. To achieve this requires an ongoing collaborative partnership between agencies, research centers and academic institutions that occurs throughout the entire policy cycle, long after the initial research has been delivered.

}, keywords = {brain plasticity, divergent thinking}, issn = {613}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-7389, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation {\textendash} final project report}, number = {615}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2020 Final Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems{\textquotedblright}.

Prescribed burning is a central feature of contemporary fire management, not just in Australia but in fire-prone countries around the world. Yet we lack a firm quantitative basis for understanding and comparing its effectiveness at mitigating risk across different regions. This project aims to address these gaps and provide critical support to agency decision makers across southern Australia by undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across the region. This project will thus support fire managers in transitioning from hectare targets to a set of tailor-made, risk-based approaches.

The project is divided into two phases: fire behaviour accounting and risk accounting. At the heart of the project is predictive modelling of the effect of prescribed burning on subsequent bushfire (wildfire) behaviour. In this project we combine ignition likelihood modelling, fuel type and arrangement from fire management agencies, weather representing all possible local fire weather conditions from Bureau of Meteorology and fire history including wildfire and variable combinations of edge and landscape treatments, applied to agency or model-derived burn blocks. From thousands of simulations, key outputs such as fire size and intensity are used estimate impacts on key management values: house loss, life loss, length of road damaged, length of powerline damaged and area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval. We use Bayesian decision networks to estimate risk mitigation, including cost, available through different treatments. Local trajectories of cost for given treatment rates and locations can then be tracked and compared between regions, allowing identification of the most cost-effective prescribed burning strategies, either overall or for a given management value.

The key finding of the project is that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by bushfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values. That is, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to prescribed burning. This has major implications for fire managers, suggesting that tailored prescribed burning solutions are possible, based on the unique risk mitigation profile for any given suite of management values in that region. Further details are included in this report and journal articles listed herein.

While the project now draws to a close, its findings live on in the Prescribed Burning Atlas, a dedicated website for fire managers, researchers and anyone else interested in using our project to support their planning, decision making and communication. The Prescribed Burning Atlas will provide a geographically-based summary of risk for decision makers in an accessible, user friendly format. Our project is unique in placing the design and delivery of this utilisation output at its heart. Active involvement of end-users throughout 2020 and beyond will be crucial in ensuring uptake and translation into outcomes for end-users and the communities they serve. From a research perspective, key outstanding questions include quantification of risk mitigation for new values (smoke effects on human health, biodiversity measures, cultural burning) and expansion of the approach to represent the full richness of planned and unplanned landscape fire over time.

}, keywords = {ecosystems, hectares, mitigation, Prescribed burning, risk, systems, tailor-made solutions}, issn = {615}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-7198, title = {Guidelines on the optimal use of remote sensing data to improve the accuracy of hydrologic and hydraulic models}, number = {600}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most damaging natural disasters in Australia. In order to limit the personal and economic damage caused by floods, land and emergency managers need to rely on flood forecasting systems. These systems consist of a hydrologic model and a hydraulic model. The hydrologic model calculates the amount of water that enters the river network, while the hydraulic model computes how that water moves throughout the river and floodplain. The accuracy and reliability of flood forecasting systems has significantly improved in the last decades. However, errors and/or uncertainties in model structures and parameters, input data, and/or meteorological forcings often hamper the accuracy of predictions. This document confirms that remote sensing data can be used to improve the accuracy of hydrologic and hydraulic models and thus ultimately improve the flood forecast accuracy.

More specifically, remotely sensed soil moisture data are used to improve the hydrologic forecast skill of ungauged sub-catchment streamflow locations through multi-objective calibration. A pragmatic approach to select the optimal hydrologic model, optimized rainfall product, and remotely sensed soil product is outlined. Routines to assimilate and smooth streamflow and remotely sensed soil moisture observations over the length of a unit hydrograph are provided for improving forecast capability. Further, remotely sensed inundation extent and water level are used to improve the accuracy of the hydraulic model. This spatially distributed information is essential for understanding the floodplain inundation dynamics, adequately setting-up the hydraulic model and effectively constraining its parameters. The research underpinning these guidelines is consistent with the findings of ongoing research efforts worldwide and has contributed to the development of knowledge and a pragmatic framework for application in the Australian context.

The methodologies presented in these guidelines for optimal use of remotely sensed data to improve the predictive skill of flood forecasting models can be applied by operational agencies. Moreover, the techniques for the analysis of remotely sensed data support and complement the existing capabilities of Geoscience Australia, and the hydrologic model assimilation has been implemented by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.\ 

}, keywords = {flood forecast, hydrologic, hydrological models, remote sensing data}, issn = {600}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright and Yuan Li} } @book {bnh-7290, title = {A handbook of wildfire engineering: guidance for wildfire suppression and resilient urban design}, year = {2020}, pages = {179}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Each year firefighters from career and volunteer agencies across Australia respond to wildfires that impact the urban interface. When such an event occurs during a period of intense fire behavior, the conditions are often incompatible with life for persons either caught in the open or those seeking refuge in a vehicle. In order to improve firefighter safety and operational effectiveness during landscape scale wildfires, as well as providing sound engineering guidance to improve community resilience to wildfire impacts, this textbook forms part of the lead author{\textquoteright}s PhD and examines critical components of wildfire response. These components are the wildfire fighting strategies and tactics applied during a landscape scale wildfire event; the procedures and protective systems utilised in the event of burnover; operational risk management; and wildfire resilient urban design. A Handbook of Wildfire Engineering (the Handbook) provides firefighters, engineers and town planners with detailed technical approaches and analysis to enhance the resilience of communities in areas prone to wildfire impacts, and enhance the safety and effectiveness of wildfire suppression at the urban interface during catastrophic wildfire conditions.

Each chapter of the Handbook is designed to build upon the previous, providing a holistic approach to understanding vegetation and wildfire basics before exploring evidence based wildfire suppression. The critical linkage between wildfire suppression, firefighter safety and urban design is also explored. Whilst the primary focus of this Handbook is wildfire suppression, there are many aspects applicable to urban designers and policy makers. These are summarised at the conclusion of each chapter.

During the preparation of this book, Australia was suffering from catastrophic wildfires on both the west and east coasts and, tragically, civilians and firefighters alike were injured or killed. The lead author was deployed as a Strike Team Leader from Western Australia and was tasked with wildfire suppression and property defense near Walcha, New South Wales. In addition to his own local experiences in Margaret River in 2011 and Yarloop 2016, during the 2019 NSW deployment he witnessed first-hand the devastating effects of wildfire on firefighters and the communities, survived near miss entrapments and nights spent on the fireground cut off by fire behaviour and falling trees. This book is dedicated to all those affected by wildfires, particularly for the firefighters of all backgrounds and jurisdictions who put themselves in harm{\textquoteright}s way to protect life, property and the environment. May the guidance provided in this book help firefighters return safely to their loved ones and provide enhanced protection of communities in wildfire prone areas.

}, keywords = {engineering, resilience, suppression, urban design, Wildfire}, issn = {978-0-6482756-8-8}, author = {Greg Penney and Daryoush Habibi and Marcus Cattani and Steven Richardson} } @article {bnh-7028, title = {Hazards, culture and Indigenous communities {\textendash} annual report 2018-2019}, number = {585}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Over the past decade, there has been an increasing amount of public attention focused on the contributions that Aboriginal people, and their knowledge and practices, make to resilience and sustainability agendas in Australia. Given the emerging commitment of natural hazards agencies in southern Australia to engagement and collaboration with Aboriginal people, the increasing level of legal recognition accorded to Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} land rights, and Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} own investment and interest in engaging in forms of natural hazard management, it is important that researchers support this work to understand and document how beneficial and respectful collaborations can be fostered.

The second year of the Hazards, culture and Indigenous communities (HCIC) project has focused on completing fieldwork for the case studies and practitioner survey, continuing to produce scholarly and industry-focused publications and maintaining strong end-user engagement. Our preliminary findings show that:

These findings are arising out of our key activities from the project. In this year, we report on:

Significantly, as part of our end-user engagement, we convened a workshop at AFAC18 that recommended:

These recommendations were passed onto our end-user team to take forward. They are also informing the preparations for the AFAC20 conference in Adelaide.

}, keywords = {culture, hazards, indigenous communities}, issn = {585}, author = {Will Smith and Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-7185, title = {Hazards, culture and indigenous communities: socio-institutional modules for utilisation}, number = {595}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

These Modules provide background information to support existing and potential collaborations between the natural hazards management sector and Indigenous peoples and their communities.

The modules are specifically written for bushfire risk and its mitigation through land management activities, with the focus being Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} burning practices. This reflects where most of the collaborations are occurring in southern Australia, and also our research activities. The modules nonetheless offer support for other natural hazard contexts and other risk mitigation activities.

We have used the term {\textquoteleft}module{\textquoteright} rather than {\textquoteleft}guide{\textquoteright} to ensure readers understand these are simply presented as tools and are not intended to provide advice about the priorities and values of Indigenous peoples. It is particularly important for non-Indigenous people to learn directly from the Indigenous people they are collaborating with. Further, each collaboration will have specific cultural, social, legal, institutional and other norms, structures and processes.

In each model we have provided links for further information, and/or suggested reading lists.

Module 1: Governance norms

This module provides a general overview of governance arrangements. In it, we highlight differences and interactions between Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} governance and the statutory governance of fire by state agencies across Australia.

Module 2: Natural hazards management sector terminology

Natural hazard terminology is not widely known outside the sector. This is true for both formal terms used in planning and policy documentation, and also colloquial and informal language.

In this module, we define some of the basic concepts used in state fire fighting and mitigation activities.

Module 3: Language and meaning

Misunderstandings surround some of the basic language and meaning of terms and concepts used by different people engaged in the management of natural hazards and Country and this can hinder fair and effective cooperation. Meeting agendas, everyday conversations and well-meaning attempts to build working relationships can be derailed by missed meanings.

This module contains definitions of concepts that are increasingly deployed to foster equitable and just relationships of knowledge and practice within collaborations between Indigenous peoples, state government and other groups interested in land management:

Module 4: Agreement making

Agreement making, including Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), are used by diverse organisations to set out mutual terms for engagement and action. An MoU may be less formal than an agreement, but not necessarily.

The process of entering into an agreement recognises the existence of substantive joint interests, and the will to establish objectives in relation to those interests. Critically, agreements need to include consideration of:

These capacities are not just about the sharing of financial resources to prepare for and attend meetings, and to implement objectives, but also to ensure that parties are able to engage in meaningful communication with each other.

Module 5: Resources

In this module, we provide resources on publications by Indigenous authors about Indigenous governance and culture, as well as weblinks to a range of Indigenous and non-Indigenous sites of relevance.

}, keywords = {culture, hazards, indigenous communities, utilisation models}, issn = {595}, author = {Jessica Weir and Will Smith and Timothy Neale} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8091, title = {How do wet forests burn? : Fuels and fire danger in the world{\textquoteright}s tallest flowering forest}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, pages = {222}, school = {University of Tasmania}, address = {Hobart}, abstract = {

Wildfire is possibly the most widespread natural disturbance globally, as its spatial and temporal patterns shape vegetation assemblages throughout the world. This is especially true in Australia, where the dominant trees, Eucalyptus spp., are among the most well-adapted to fire on the planet. To protect communities in such a fire-prone landscape, we need to be able to predict fire behaviour and manage fuels in a fashion that reduces risk. But to do this effectively, we must understand the natural fire regimes that occur in Australian ecosystems. One Australian ecosystem for which fire regimes are poorly understood is the tall wet Eucalyptus forest (TWEF). These globally unique forests support a mix of flammable and fire-sensitive vegetation and are among the world{\textquoteright}s most carbon-dense forests, so understanding their flammability is critical.

This thesis attempts to describe the fire regime TWEF. It does so in a fashion that can inform fuels management and fire behaviour prediction, with a particular focus on the island of Tasmania. First, I used fire behaviour model simulations to analyse the effectiveness of fuel treatment on fire behaviour in different Tasmanian vegetation, which allowed me to contextualise fire risk across the island{\textquoteright}s diverse vegetation types. I then described the fire regime, namely the expected frequency and severity of wildfires, of TWEF. I did this using a combination of fuels, microclimate, and weather data, along with fire behaviour modelling, to estimate potential fire severities in these forests. I first investigated what drives fire severity across a continental-scale macroecological gradient of forests in an {\textquoteleft}early-mature{\textquoteright} successional stage. However, flammability of older forests can be different from that of younger forests, so I investigated how the flammability of TWEF changes as a stand develops from regrowth to old-growth forest. For the latter exercise I focused, on Tasmanian TWEF.

Fire behaviour model simulations indicated that an impractical extent of landscape-scale prescribed burning would be needed for the treatment to be effective, and that this is especially true for TWEF. The results also suggested that Tasmanian TWEF are capable of sustaining among the most intense fires on the planet. I suggest that prescribed burning needs to be conducted at local, targeted scales, and that alternatives to prescribed burning need to be investigated for Tasmanian TWEF. Analysis of the continent-wide dataset of fuels and microclimate in early-mature TWEF indicated both low-and high-severity fires play an important role, but that high-severity fire is much more likely in TWEF in the hotter and drier regions of the continent. Further, similar analysis of a chronosequence of TWEF stands in Tasmania indicated that high-severity fires become more likely in younger TWEF. Importantly, the results highlighted that the TWEF understorey (or elevated fuel layer) is the most important fuel layer from a fire danger perspective. Hence, I suggest that management needs to mimic mixed-severity fires to maintain the structural heterogeneity and microclimate that makes these forests fire resistant.

Results from fire behaviour model simulations and from measuring fire severity in eight burnt field sites also indicated that current operational models over-predict flame height and fireline intensity in TWEF, likely due to an over-simplistic representation of forest structure. As a result, I performed a detailed review of the three major current operational fire behaviour models, along with a next-generation physics-based model, and documented their shortcomings. I then investigated how applicable these different models were in TWEF. Despite its importance, the live understorey is composed of many fire-sensitive species whose flammability is poorly understood. Hence, I propose that small-scale burning studies combined with physical simulation of wildfire are needed to quantify flammability and fire behaviour in forests composed of such species.

}, keywords = {burn, fire danger, flowering forest, fuels, wet forests}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/34888/}, author = {Furlaud, James M.} } @article {bnh-7302, title = {Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone {\textendash} East Coast Lows: annual report 2019-2020}, number = {609}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East-Coast Lows demonstrates a pilot capability to deliver quantitative impact forecasts for residential housing from the Bureau{\textquoteright}s high resolution weather prediction models (or high resolution reanalysis for hindcasts). The project is a collaborative effort between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia.\ 

The project goals include:

The project focuses on the wind impact on residential buildings from the 20-22 April 2015 east coast low event in New South Wales (a.k.a. the "Dungog case study"; Wehner and Maqsood 2015). The wind hazard data is provided by the high resolution version of the Australian Community Climate Earth System Simulator (ACCESS; Bureau of Meteorology 2018) model, or the equivalent high resolution reanalysis (BARRA-SY). The two damage data sets have been provided by NSW State Emergency Services (SES) and the Emergency Information Coordination Unit (EICU). Exposure and vulnerability information has been sourced from Geoscience Australia. Exposure data are sourced from the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS; Nadimpalli et al. 2007; Power et al. 2017), and heuristically derived vulnerability functions have been compiled as part of a previous project.

The multi-hazard nature of the east coast low event, the relatively low wind speeds and the limited available information in the damage assessment data makes attributing the observed building damage to the specific wind hazard very difficult. To evaluate the performance of the quantitative wind impact forecast that we have produced, very careful and detailed processing of the available damage data is needed to remove damage reports due to tree fall, as opposed to structural failure, rain ingress, and flood inundation.\ 

Despite the challenges above, we have now shown that the inclusion of exposure and vulnerability information can outperform a wind impact forecast that only uses a plain wind hazard prediction. In other words, the Dungog case study suggests that the extra effort needed for the quantitative inclusion of exposure and vulnerability information is a promising approach in the pursuit of future quantitative impact forecasts in Australia.\ 

We applied our impact forecast methodology to a second extreme weather case during May 2020 in Perth. An extra-tropical cyclone produced widespread wind damage with wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h recorded over many hours. In this case we found that wind impact forecasts are sensitive to the fluctuations in wind gust forecasts produced by the Bureau{\textquoteright}s high-resolution real-time weather prediction models. Alongside the multi-hazard nature of damage to residential buildings, this impact sensitivity to the hazard constitutes a second complication for the quantitative prediction of wind impacts.

To increase the utility of the damage assessment data we continue to recommend that the SES/EICU damage survey templates record multiple damage states and linkages between damage and the associated hazard(s). Such expanded recording practices would lead to improvements in the development of the hazard-damage relationships. Additional uncertainty arises through the NEXIS exposure data which are statistically inferred at the Dungog township and are therefore merely indicative of the actual building attributes.

}, keywords = {coastal zone, east coast lows, Forecasting}, issn = {609}, author = {Harald Richter and Craig Arthur and David Wilke and Mark Dunford and Beth Ebert and Martin Wehner} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8310, title = {Implementing disaster resilience policy in the Australian Federation}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, pages = {329}, school = {Australian National University}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

Australia adopted the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience in 2011. This officially set it on a path to change the attitudes and behaviours of all sectors of society to share responsibility for disaster risks. This would require a shift away from the traditional emphasis on disaster, response, relief and recovery toward prevention, preparation and planning, and risk mitigation. Eight years later, disaster resilience policy continues to be implemented at all levels of government as well as influencing resilience-based approaches in the Not-for-Profit and business sectors. Much progress has been made in disaster resilience research, especially in the area of measurement, including the development of indicators that can potentially inform evaluation of the effectiveness of disaster resilience policy. However, there is shortage of research and a lack of awareness about the significance of policy implementation and governance for achieving successful policy outcomes. This thesis seeks to address this gap and investigates whether the implementation of disaster resilience policy in Australia reflects good practice and how current practice is shaped by the characteristics of the Australian Federal (multilevel) system of government. The methodology involves three parallel linked avenues of inquiry that includes the development of a Provisional Disaster Resilience Policy Implementation Framework (the Provisional framework) to guide implementation, the application of the Provisional Framework to a number of case studies of implementation to identify principles and practices relevant to multi-level governance systems that will enhance disaster resilience, and the evaluation of the Provisional framework to incorporate these findings.

A key research outcome is the Disaster Resilience Policy Implementation Framework that confirms the inclusion of the Policy Domains of Social Capital, Community Competence, Economic Development, Information and Communication, with the addition of a fifth and complementary Policy Domain, Subsidiarity. Subsidiarity is an organising principle that is closely associated with federalism and states that {\textquoteleft}that any particular task should be decentralized to the lowest level of governance with the capacity to conduct it satisfactorily{\textquoteright} (Marshall, G.R., 2008, {\textquoteleft}Nesting, subsidiarity, and communitybased environmental governance beyond the local scale{\textquoteright}. International Journal of the Commons, 2(1) p.80). This has implications for practice that have fundamental regard to the operation of disaster resilience within a system consisting of component parts that must work together to synergise disaster resilience efforts. For this system to work effectively activities must be coordinated using effective feedback mechanisms and facilitated by open and shared access to information, devolved to the appropriate level with approaches that nurture capacity, and with roles and responsibilities that are negotiated and clearly defined through an authentic process of stakeholder engagement.

}, keywords = {disaster, governance, Policy, resilience}, url = { http://hdl.handle.net/1885/216714}, author = {Susan Hunt} } @article {bnh-7165, title = {Implementing research to support disaster risk reduction}, journal = { Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, pages = {54-61}, abstract = {

One of the challenges facing disaster risk reduction is the gap between research and practice. Despite the considerable investment in publicly funded and commissioned disaster risk reduction research, the application of research findings to operational practice often lags, if implemented at all. This paper addresses the need to understand the antecedents of implementation and identifies activities involved in the research utilisation process. This paper reports on findings that led to the development of a research utilisation maturity matrix that encompasses four levels of maturity being: basic, developing, established and leading. This study involved collaboration and discussion with emergency services practitioners and a conceptual model of the elements needed to support implementation of research was identified. This model suggests that the four elements play key roles in effective implementation. The study gathered information from emergency services practitioners and their stakeholders about the meaning of the research findings and what, if anything, needed to change. The study{\textquoteright}s findings can help emergency services personnel assess organisational practices to improve research utilisation within the emergency sector and contribute to greater disaster risk reduction outcomes.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk reduction, Research utilisation}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-july-2020-implementing-research-to-support-disaster-risk-reduction/}, author = {Owen, Christine and Noreen Krusel and Loriana Bethune} } @article {bnh-7026, title = {Improved decision support for natural hazard risk reduction {\textendash} annual project report 2018-2019}, number = {583}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There is increasing recognition of the urgency to consider how disaster risk might change into the future, what impacts this is likely to have and, most importantly, what we can do to reduce this risk. There is also increased recognition that in order to achieve this, we need to adopt a holistic approach that takes into account community values, vulnerabilities and resilience, future changes in population and demographics, climate change, multiple hazards, cascading events, adaptation and a range of risk reduction strategies, such as land use planning, community education, land management, structural measures and changes to building codes.

Over the last five years, this project has co-developed conceptual, modelling and decision support frameworks for tackling the above problems in conjunction with more than 40 end-user organisations in four states (South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and Victoria). The frameworks facilitate:

The above frameworks have resulted in the development of the decision support software UNHaRMED (Unified Natural Hazards Risk Mitigation Exploratory Decision support system), applications for which have been co-developed with end-users for greater Adelaide, Perth and surrounds, Tasmania and greater and peri-urban Melbourne. In Adelaide, UNHaRMED is being used in collaboration with local governments for strategic flood mitigation planning and the development of a state emergency management exercise focused on recovery and long term mitigation related to sea level rise.

End-user training for the Perth and Tasmania UNHaRMED applications only occurred in 2019 and relevant agencies in these states are working towards the incorporation of these applications in state planning processes. End-user training for the greater and peri-urban application of UNHaRMED will take place in July 2019.

Other opportunities have also presented themselves in working with agencies and providing outputs and insight from UNHaRMED into other projects and products. These have included working with the SA Government on a mitigation exercise which will take place early in the next financial year focused on how to explore future impacts of coastal flooding and develop mitigation activities to be implemented. Another has been working with the National Resilience Taskforce on modelling capabilities for understanding climate and disaster risks.

}, keywords = {decision support, Natural hazards, risk reduction, UNHaRMED}, issn = {583}, author = {Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Sofanit Araya and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and Graeme Dandy and Eike Hamers} } @article {bnh-7508, title = {Improved decision support for natural hazard risk reduction {\textendash} annual report 2019-2020}, number = {629}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

There is increasing recognition of the urgency to consider how disaster risk might change into the future, what impacts this is likely to have and, most importantly, what we can do to reduce this risk.\  There is also increased recognition that in order to achieve this, we need to adopt a holistic approach that takes into account community values, vulnerabilities and resilience, future changes in population and demographics, climate change, multiple hazards, cascading events, adaptation and a range of risk reduction strategies, such land use planning, community education, land management, structural measures and changes to building codes.

Over the last 5 years, this project has co-developed conceptual, modelling and decision support frameworks for tackling the above problems in conjunction with more than 40 end-user organisations in four states (South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and Victoria).\  The frameworks facilitate (i) the development of the capacity for strategic thinking and for tackling long-term disaster risk in an integrated fashion, (ii) the collaboration between different government departments and different levels of government (federal, state and local), (iii) the development of a shared understanding of risks and values between a range of stakeholders (e.g. different levels of government and the community), (iv) the quantification of how disaster risks and costs might change into the future under a range of integrated socio-economic and climate scenarios and (v) the development of the best adaptive mitigation strategies under these scenarios.

The above frameworks have resulted in the development of the decision support software UNHaRMED (Unified Natural Hazards Risk Mitigation Exploratory Decision support system), applications for which have been co-developed with end users for greater Adelaide, Perth and surrounds, Tasmania and greater and peri-urban Melbourne.\  They are now being deployed in a variety of manners to support understanding and decision making on disaster risk reduction along with continual improvements to the capability.

In the last financial year users have now been trained in all jurisdictions. This report summarises some of the enhanced software capabilities along with describe several utilisation activities designed to highlight the benefits of using an interactive risk assessment tool in participatory settings. This has included facilitating a mitigation exercises for South Australian State and Local Government agencies exploring mitigation activities for a changing coastal risk profile and assessing floodplain management approaches in the Gawler River.

}, keywords = {decision support, improved, natural hazard, risk reduction, UNHaRMED}, issn = {629}, author = {Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Sofanit Araya and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and Graeme Dandy and Eike Hamers} } @article {bnh-6801, title = {Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact}, number = {556}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The project has completed the second year of its refresh and is progressing with some challenges. The first 3{\textonehalf} years featured a strong focus on developing underpinning science in some important areas, notably the transport of embers by bushfire plumes, and understanding the origin of the moisture when pyrocumulus clouds form {\textendash} is it from the atmosphere, or from the fuel? We also conducted significant case studies, including an ensemble-based study of a severe east coast low, an analysis of the meteorology of the State Mine Fire of October 2013, and a study into tropical cyclone secondary eyewall formation.

This second phase of the project pivots towards utilization. We will not neglect investigations into the underpinning science, or case studies, but we are looking to turn our previous discoveries and knowledge gained into useful products.

The first of these is a new thermodynamic tool for predicting the potential for pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) formation, the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold, or PFT. This parameter depends on the atmospheric state, both the wind strength within the boundary layer and the full thermodynamic profile and aims to predict the minimum fire power (in GW) that is necessary to trigger deep convection. In favourable conditions, a fire of a few GW suffices, and at unfavourable times, 1000 GW would be insufficient. We have found that there is substantial variability in the atmospheric favourability in time and space, and that observed pyroCb often form during a narrow window of opportunity. We are presently preparing for a major utilization exercise, a near-real time trial of the tool over the coming summer. We expect that the results from this trial will help to finalize the development of the tool, and ready it for operations.

Our case study of the tornado outbreak in South Australia that triggered events which cut power to the entire state showed that the tornado cluster was predictable by modern high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) {\textendash} indeed, the deterministic model predicted the precise location of one of the observed tornadoes. Encouraged by this success, we ran a 6-member ensemble simulation of the event, which showed that while the probability of tornadoes was well over 50\%, the level and location of the activity was less certain. To assist with analysis of this event, we also developed a novel diagnostic of tornadic precursors in NWP systems. A journal article is almost ready for submission on this work.

A second case study is analyzing the Tathra bushfire on the south coast of New South Wales, which led to the destruction of over 60 houses. Although occurring in strong northwesterly winds in the lee of the ranges, mountain wave activity appears to have been modest at the time of the greatest fire activity and probably not the major cause of the disaster. Rather, the extreme fire behavior appears to have been driven by strong, very unsteady and fluctuating winds, caused by roll-like circulations in the flow off the ranges, with the interaction between this flow and a later wind change also of interest. The weak role of mountain waves in this event illustrates the value of performing detailed case studies, as at first glance, several of the ingredients for a mountain wave event were present, and indeed active earlier in the day.

Unfortunately, our development of a parameterization of long-range ember transport has made little progress this year, due to the unanticipated difficulty of the task and the illness of a staff member. We plan to resume work on that shortly.

In recognition of the delays on the ember transport parameterization, and also of new opportunities that have arisen in pyrocumulus prediction, we have negotiated an altered project schedule with the BNHCRC.

}, keywords = {community impact, predictions, Severe Weather}, issn = {556}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and KJ Tory and Dragana Zovko-Rajak and David Wilke and Serena Schroeter} } @article {bnh-7801, title = {Improving decision making, teamwork and organisational learning in emergency management {\textendash} final project report}, number = {641}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Background: Each year Australian emergency management organisations coordinate the response to thousands of emergency events. While a successful outcome is achieved in the vast majority of these events, notable and ongoing concerns are being raised as to how well some of the emergency management teams have functioned.\  Often the problems are not based on technical skills (such as the use of equipment) but on the non-technical skills, such as: communication, coordination, situation awareness, and decision making. In addition, skills such as creativity and divergent thinking may be important in helping people to manage ever more complex emergencies. This project seeks to develop simple practical tools that can help people to better manage their teamwork, improve their decision making and develop more creative solutions.\  In addition to developing these tools this project also considers how organisations utilise the outcomes of research.\  Application of research in support of organisational learning is critical not just for organisational growth, competitiveness and sustainability but also for wide-scale industry development, community and economic well-being. However, maximising organisational learning from research often falls short. As part of this project we will seek to develop a tool to help agencies to utilise research more effectively.

Method: The tools were developed using a human-centred design approach. This approach placed the end-user very much at the heart of the development process so that the tools were effectively co-created with end-users. Embedding end-users into the research and design process has two goals, 1) to produce effective tools that are designed around the end-user and 2) to create the right context for the adoption of the tools by emergency management agencies. In this way we have brought utilisation to the centre of the project, embedding it within the research process so that utilisation informs and is informed by the research from the beginning of the project.

Research and tool development: A number of tools were developed to help people to better manage their teamwork and decision making. These tools include:

In addition to creating tools that help better manage teams and make more effective decisions, members of the project team have also developed methods to help people to act more creatively during operations (such as stretch thinking loops for team decision making). To help end-users to diagnose their capacity to utilise research a self-assessment tool was developed (known as the self-assessment research utilisation maturity matrix or RUMM). This tool can be used by practitioners to identify steps needed to move along the path towards research implementation.

Utilisation: These tools have now seen excellent utilisation by emergency management agencies in Australia and have attracted growing interest from international partners in the UK and Spain.\  The teamwork tools have been used to help manage both simulated and real-life emergencies; to conduct debriefs and after-action reviews; to design response plans; and to evaluate emergency management arrangements. The research utilisation maturity matrix (RUMM) has been used to inform future research planning, to assess existing capability in research utilisation and to inform future policy decisions.\  The tools that we have created have been included in a number of key industry publications (such as AFAC Lessons Management Handbook) and a number of agencies have changed their standard operating procedures to facilitate use of the tools.

Conclusion and next steps: This project has developed a number of products that can help people in emergency management to better manage non-technical skills, improve creativity and assess their ability to utilise the products of research.\  The next steps are to help agencies to better embed these tools so that they become part of normal everyday business.

}, keywords = {Decision making, Emergency management, organisational learning, teamwork}, issn = {641}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Peter Hastings and Heather Stuart} } @article {bnh-7694, title = {Improving flood forecast skill using remote sensing data {\textendash} final project report}, number = {633}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most damaging natural disasters in Australia. Over the last 40 years, the average annual cost of floods was estimated to be $377 million per year. The 2010-2011 floods in Brisbane and South-East Queensland alone resulted in 35 confirmed deaths and $2.38 billion damage. The floods in June 2016 in Queensland, New South Wales, and Tasmania, resulted in five confirmed casualties. The Insurance Council of Australia stated on June 7, 2016 that about 14,500 claims totalling $56 million have been lodged from across the country. The floods in March-April 2017 in Queensland and New South Wales caused five confirmed casualties. Furthermore, according to the Insurance Council of Australia, 823,560 Queensland homes are still unprepared for flooding (March 11, 2018).\  The floods in North Queensland in January-February 2019 resulted in four confirmed fatalities and an estimated total direct cost of 1.3 billion dollars. In order to limit the personal and economic damage caused by floods, operational water and emergency managers rely on flood forecasting systems.

These systems consist of a hydrologic and a hydraulic model to predict the extent and level of floods. Using observed and predicted rainfall, the hydrologic model calculates the amount of water that is flowing through the river network, while the hydraulic model computes water depth and velocity in the river and in the floodplain. In recent decades, the accuracy and reliability of these flood forecasting systems has significantly improved. However, it remains difficult to provide accurate and precise flood warnings. This is a result of errors and/or uncertainties in model structures, model parameters, input data, and/or meteorological forcing (mainly rainfall). The hypothesis of this project is that remote sensing data can be used to improve modelled flood forecast skill and value.

More specifically, this project developed optimal ways to constrain and update the hydrologic model using remotely sensed soil moisture data. The significance of soil moisture is its direct impact on the partitioning of rainfall into surface runoff and infiltration. Second, this project proposed an algorithm for the monitoring of floods under vegetation. Finally, we investigated optimal ways to use remote sensing-derived inundation extent and level to implement and calibrate the hydraulic model. \ The results of this project enable improved predictions of flow depth, extent and velocity in the floodplain.

}, keywords = {Flood, forecast, remote sensing data}, issn = {633}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright and Yuan Li} } @article {bnh-7300, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events: annual report 2019-2020}, number = {607}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This BNHCRC project titled:\  Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events prescribes practical structural retrofits that will make improvements to the performance of Pre-80s (Legacy) houses in windstorms as well as measures to reduce damage and loss to modern homes.

The major activity carried out in 2019-20 by the CTS-JCU and GA has been refining the VAWS software package using detailed wind loading and structural response test data and conducting a benefit-cost analysis for a range of retrofit or mitigation options:\ 

The retrofit options for the ten selected house types are also being provided as guideline in a website that is being produced. In line with the project timeline, an alpha version of this tool will be presented to Stakeholders in the next Quarter with the intention of having the final version released at the end of the project.

This project continues to give advice to the Queensland Government Household Resilience Program which provides funding to low income eligible home owners to improve the resilience of their homes against cyclones. This program managed by the Queensland Department of Housing \& Public Works (QDHPW) commenced in late 2018 and has been extended through 2020. Eligible home owners can apply to receive a Queensland Government grant of 75\% of the cost of improvements (up to a maximum of $11,250 including GST. About 1700 houses have been retrofitted so far.\ 

}, keywords = {Housing, resilience, severe wind}, issn = {607}, author = {Korah Parackal and Martin Wehner and John Ginger and Hyeuk Ryu and David Henderson and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-6576, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation}, number = {535}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report is the third in a series produced for the BNHCRC-funded project Integrating Urban Planning and Natural Hazard Mitigation. The first report constituted a theoretical exploration of integration between urban planning and emergency management supported by an overarching understanding of national and state contexts for these two fields of inquiry and practice, with a focus on the states of Victoria and South Australia. This report generated a preliminary framework used to subsequently interrogate a series of urbanplanning-related recommendations from royal commissions of inquiry and reviews targeting natural-hazard-related events in the past ten years, summarised in the second report.

Building on the preliminary framework of integration previously developed, this current report presents the development of an analytical framework for assessing integration between urban planning and emergency management arrangements and practice and its application in a real case in the state of Victoria. Findings presented in this report serves as the basis for the analysis of the South Australian case of integration in a moment when its planning system is under considerate reforms. A separate report containing findings from this subsequent analysis is to be submitted next.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, mitigation, Natural hazards, Risk assessment, urban planning}, issn = {535}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7738, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation {\textendash} final project report}, number = {635}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

Urban planning systems have considerable potential to modify the impacts of natural hazards upon the built environment, humans and associated systems. With the increased frequency of natural hazards due to climate change and increased exposure to hazards due to population growth pressures, especially in the urban-rural interface, there are also increased consequences for human settlements and likely exacerbation of the challenges associated with natural hazard impact.

In this context, this project sought to understand the limits and potentials of integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation in Australia, and the ways in which key planning processes for risk-based decision-making in the built environment can be improved. By doing so, it identified many gaps in the ways we currently seek to integrate urban planning and natural hazard risk management.

The primary questions posed by this research project were:

PQ1 {\textendash} What are the limits and potentials of integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation in Australia?

PQ2 {\textendash} How can key planning processes for risk-based decision making in the built environment be improved at local and state level, including generalizable and adaptable model processes and codes with practical illustrative cases?

Method

The project comprised 3 sequential stages that resulted in the development of diagnostic tools to assess and improve the integration of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in Australia.

The first stage{\textendash}Mapping Current Knowledge, Best Practice and Challenges{\textendash}established an analytical framework to assess integration based on current knowledge, best practice and challenges. Using desktop research and end-user workshops, core integration principles were identified.

In the second stage{\textendash}Assessing Australian Planning and Ways Forward{\textendash}the set of integration principles was refined through its application to past Australian inquiries into natural hazard events. An analytical framework for assessing integration was also developed and diagrammatically represented to illustrate and map critical variables for the integration of Urban Planning and Natural Hazard Mitigation.

The third stage{\textendash}Applying and Generating Knowledge in New Ways{\textendash}applied and generated knowledge by undertaking an assessment of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in two Australian case studies. In consultation with end-users, this assessment targeted proposed land use planning reforms in South Australia and a historical case of edge development in Metropolitan Melbourne in Victoria. Findings from these case studies informed the development of critical frameworks for best practice comprising three sets of diagnostic tools.

Learnings and findings

Learnings were captured in a set of scalable and adaptable diagnostic tools that are part of critical frameworks for best practice in integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in Australia. These diagnostic tools allow assessment of integration and risk management across urban planning and emergency management systems and processes. This set of tools is the final product for this research project and the utilisation output delivered to end-users. This output represents a comprehensive understanding of the potentials and limits of urban planning systems when it comes to disaster risk reduction. It allows for a range of new ways forward to fully utilise and integrate urban planning with natural hazard mitigation actions and outcomes. Broadly, these diagnostic tools suggest that a comprehensive assessment of integration of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation should include consideration of

Utilisation

This project is in its first three-year cycle, so it was not able to move into utilisation.\  However, the outcomes of the work provide an ability to understand, critique and improve urban planning{\textquoteright}s influence and impact on risk reduction to natural hazards, providing many new ways forward.

Therefore, there is great potential for the utilisation of the critical model developed in the research to assess and guide reform in processes of land use planning in existing and future settlements. In particular, modifying the processes of state and local government during planning decision-making is likely to yield significant impact. The development of illustrative critical and explanatory understandings of the importance and application of urban planning as a tool for disaster risk reduction is in and of itself a significant output that can be utilised.

Many of the project findings have been included in the AIDR Handbook {\textquotedblleft}Land Use Planning for Disaster Resilient Communities{\textquotedblright} (March \& Gonzalez-Mathiesen, 2020) and have informed submissions to the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (Stanley et al., 2020)and to the Inquiry into the 2019-2020 Victorian Fire Season (Stanley et al., 2020,embargoed).

There are many potential areas for ongoing utilisation. These fall under the following broad categories:

}, keywords = {integrated, mitigation, natural hazard, urban planning}, issn = {635}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-7013, title = {Integrating bushfire risk reduction and statutory mechanisms in South Australia: assessment of the draft Planning and Design Code 2019}, number = {584}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfires pose significant threats to life and property in many parts of Australia.\  The frequency and intensity of bushfires are increasing over time in association with worsening weather conditions that support extreme fires (Dowdy, 2018) and ongoing settlement growth (Allen, 2018). High bushfire risks generally occur when fires interact with human settlements, where housing and other structures are near flammable vegetation and associated impacts such as ember attack.

This report is an output of the wider project {\textquotedblleft}Integrating Urban Planning with Disaster Risk Reduction{\textquotedblright} funded by the Bushfire Natural Hazard Cooperative Research Centre. It is part of a critical review of the integration of emergency management and urban planning in South Australia focusing on the detail of bushfire treatment mechanisms proposed in the State Planning Reform Document Draft Planning and Design Code {\textendash} Phase 2 Rural Areas (DPTI, 2019b) released in October 2019 by the Department of Transport, Planning and Infrastructure, and State Planning Commission. In parallel, the review also considered other relevant regulations and codes such as AS 3959-2018 Building in Bushfire Prone Areas (Standards Australia - Committee FP-020, 2019) and Ministerial Building Standard MBS008 Designated Bushfire Prone Areas {\textendash} Draft October 2019 (DPTI, 2019a). The present report provides a basis for later work in subsequent stages that develops new approaches and improvements in collaboration with practitioners.

The review begins by setting out the conceptual and theoretical basis of integration and moves to presenting a general description of bushfires and the main factors that contribute to bushfire risks in the built environment. Then, it sets out the main elements of investigation relating to the integration of bushfire risk reduction in the built environment, summarising the adopted research approach and the role of this report in the wider research project. Then the report moves to critically analysing the outcomes of applying these integration principles to bushfire risks as they are dealt with by the draft Code. Findings point to elements of the Code that could be improved to reduce risks across the areas of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

}, keywords = {bushfires, planning and design code, risk reduction, south australia}, issn = {584}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8311, title = {Investigating the psychological factors that influence cyclone mitigation behaviour}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {280}, school = {James Cook University}, address = {Townsville}, abstract = {

Tropical Cyclones can cause significant damage to houses located in high-risk areas. In Australia, cities and towns situated on the north coast of Queensland are considered some of the most cyclone-prone communities in the country. Cyclone related property damage can, however, be reduced if the citizens of these communities perform appropriate protective behaviours. People can, for example, install structural upgrades on their houses, which improves the house{\textquoteright}s ability to withstand cyclonic winds. There is also a range of short-term preparedness behaviours that have been shown to effectively mitigate cyclone related property damage. Though, to date, the proportion of people that perform these mitigation behaviours has been relatively low. The overall aim of this research project was to explore why some people do, and others do not, perform cyclone mitigation behaviours.

Past research has shown that Expectancy Value (EV) theories help to explain whether people perform mitigation behaviours for natural hazards. However, an EV based theory has yet to be applied to explain cyclone related structural mitigation behaviour. This research project addressed this research gap by testing the extent to which an adapted EV theory helps to explain people{\textquoteright}s intention to install cyclone shutters. An initial study showed that psychological factors within the adapted EV theory were significant predictors of mitigation behaviour. The results also indicated that an adapted EV theory can be used differentiate between different types of people and their levels of intention to install cyclone shutters. A follow up study showed that that hazard intrusiveness, perceived benefits and perceived cost were the only significant predictors of shutter installation status when controlling for other psychological, demographic and experience factors. The results indicate that when perceived benefits (i.e., the secondary benefits of a structural upgrade) and perceived efficacy (i.e., the perceived ability of the structural upgrade to mitigate harm) are considered separate constructs, only perceived benefits is a significant predictor of structural mitigation\ behaviour. The findings suggest that people are more likely to invest in shutters if they believe that the secondary benefits of shutters outweigh the cost.

Although most EV theories suggest that risk perception influences protective behaviour, empirical research has shown that risk perception is not always a significant predictor of mitigation behaviour. This research project also tested a new method of assessing risk perception to determine if it was significant predictor of short-term cyclone preparedness behaviour. The results indicate that when controlling for objective risk and protective action perceptions, the predicted damage and anticipated negative emotions associated with that damage were both significant predictors of preparedness intention. The results suggest that it is possible to identify a relatively strong link between risk perception and mitigation intention when it is considered a dual-process phenomenon and objective risk is controlled for in the analysis.

Research investigating mitigation behaviour for natural hazards also tends to show that people with experience perceive more risk and are more prepared for future events. However, the link between experience, risk perception and mitigation behaviour seems to be dependent on the type of experience. One type of experience that has not been studied empirically is that of fringe experience. The final study addressed this research gap by exploring how people who had experienced the fringe effects of a severe cyclone (i.e., experienced lesser wind speeds compared to those near the eye of storm) predicted future damage from similar cyclone event. It was found that the more people overestimated the severity of the cyclone they experienced, the less damage they predicted they would experience from a future severe cyclone. The results highlight the importance of specifying the type of experience being assessed in empirical research and that fringe experience is one type of experience can lower risk perception.

The findings from this research project have several implications. The results show that different psychological factors are important for explaining different types of mitigation behaviour. It is, therefore, important for future research applying EV theories to adapt them in accordance with the type of behaviour they are attempting to explain. The findings also suggest that the link between experience, risk perception and cyclone mitigation behaviour is dependent on the way in which these variables are conceptualised and operationalised. Overall, this research project shows that how people think about cyclones and mitigation behaviours helps to explain the extent to which they prepare for cyclones.

}, keywords = {cyclone mitigation behavior, cyclone preparedness, cyclones, fringe experience, hazard intrusiveness, hazard-related attributes, protection motivation theory, protective action decision model, Risk perception}, doi = {10.25903/rsvz-3w27}, url = {https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/68936/}, author = {Mitchell Scovell} } @article {bnh-7012, title = {January 2020 NSW bushfires study}, number = {582}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In late January, 2020, Risk Frontiers with the support of the CRC funding for quick response deployed a team to the NSW South Coast region. Areas surveyed include Moruya, Mogo, Malua Bay, Rosedale, the Catalina area of Batemans Bay and Lake Conjola. The majority of damage occurred on December 31, 2019 as catastrophic weather conditions (extreme temperatures and high magnitude winds) intensified existing fire fronts. The conditions transported large quantities of embers into vulnerable communities, destroying hundreds of residential and several commercial buildings. In total, the survey identified 426 bushfire affected properties, most of which were destroyed. Industries/Infrastructure affected included: Bowling / Services club, unit block (12 units), Heritage Park, industrial complex with numerous businesses, extensive damage to electricity infrastructure (power poles and wires along the Princes Highway). This report complements our report for northern NSW (Risk Frontiers, 2020).

}, keywords = {catastrophic weather conditions, embers, fires, nsw}, issn = {582}, author = {Steve George and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Salom{\'e} Hussein and Jonathan Van Leeuwen} } @article {bnh-7664, title = {Learning as we go: developing effective inclusive management {\textendash} case studies and guidance}, number = {632}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

{\textquoteleft}Commitment is important because sometimes that is all you have.{\textquoteright}

Diversity and inclusion (D\&I) is now an imperative for all emergency management organisations (EMOs) if they are to mitigate and manage the human and social risk associated with the changing risk landscape communities now occupy. The increasingly unprecedented natural hazards events, systemic nature of the impacts and the intersection with other events (such as COVID-19), are changing what is being experienced, and what is needed to respond and recover from these events. It has brought into focus the need to build robust and resilient social infrastructure in communities and organisations prior to events or implementation of activities. The area of social and human risk that is associated with D\&I, has for the most part, been seen as secondary to more technical and tangible risks, and its value is not well understood.

Management of D\&I happens at all levels of the organisations {\textendash} from upper level leadership to frontline workers {\textendash} and is strategic and short-term. It has two aspects:

Due to the new needs arising, management of D\&I is emergent and inherently risky as there is a high level of innovation involved in many activities. Obtaining an inclusive and diverse workforce is a long-term proposition requiring stamina and flexibility. It requires changing not only social and organisational structures and culture, but how people think and act within them. This not a straightforward task; it requires not only progressing the agenda, but also {\textquoteleft}holding the line{\textquoteright} and thinking creatively when there are adverse responses, which are a natural part of the change process. It is also an agenda that requires deep collaboration within organisations and all those within the emergency management sector (EMS) for the foreseeable future.

The case studies in this document illustrate that although there may be common principles that underpin practice, there is no one management prototype or model. It is a process of conscious decision making where what is managed and how it is managed is determined by who is being managed, their context, and the specific needs that arise from this. These factors are also influenced across time by changing social, environmental, political and economic circumstances, and ongoing learning and being able to adapt in response to this are central to effective management. What works one year may not work in the next (Young and Parry, 2020), and what works in one context will not necessarily work in another. There is no fixed-point destination to arrive at, rather a series of destinations that organisations and communities transition through as they work towards the desired inclusive outcome.

As a result, management of this area is highly dynamic and more reliant on process to manage the multiple uncertainties associated with achieving outcomes. It also requires leading from behind and guiding, rather than dictating, so that people achieve awareness and feel enabled to act.

The case studies also highlight the importance of having a social mandate to operate. This is particularly important for maintaining longer term activities, as it is built upon trusted relationships and the connections that support this. Trust-based relationships are not something that can be manufactured. They are earned through authentic and respectful interactions that are maintained, and where actions match the words that are spoken. It is critical for leaders at all levels to appreciate that people will not follow, engage with, or take instruction from someone they do not trust or they feel is being tokenistic. It is also important to note that management starts at the top of organisations, but its effectiveness is ultimately determined by how it is grown and maintained at the bottom and middle of organisations.

The other common aspects found to support effective D\&I programs include:

Inclusion is not about being permissive. It is about understanding the formation of new boundaries and who should decide those boundaries. The diversity conversation is also not one conversation. It is the coming together, and inclusion, of many different voices so a collaborative outcome can be negotiated.

This document presents case studies and examples of best practice and knowledge that have been collated with experts within EMOs who were part of this study. As practice is evolving rapidly, its purpose is to provide reference points for practitioners to support broader development of the D\&I agenda. They show that organisations are learning and building as they go, and that some of the best resources the EMS have are their practitioners. It also provides resource materials that have been developed to support D\&I practitioners by the EMS and other industries.

This document is a support document for the Diversity and inclusion framework for emergency management policy and practice (Young and Jones, 2020), which provides overarching concepts, principles and processes that guide management activities. As a result, it should be read in conjunction with the framework.

}, keywords = {case studies, diversity, guidance, inclusion management}, issn = {632}, author = {Celeste Young and Craig Cormick and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-7390, title = {Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts {\textendash} final project report}, number = {616}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fuel condition (e.g. moisture content, horizontal and vertical continuity and the quantity or load) affect flammability and therefore is a key determinant of the ease of ignition and the spread rate of a fire. Many research institutions and management services are investing an important amount of resources on field-based fuel condition monitoring to understand its dynamics and support operational fire management activities. However, field sampling is expensive and time-consuming, sometimes subjective and implies also a delay time until the data are processed and made available. The Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC project {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazards and Impacts{\textquoteright} used cutting-edge technology to produce near-real-time spatial information on fuel condition, fire hazard and impact to support a wide range of fire risk management and response activities such as hazard reduction burning and pre-positioning firefighting resources and, in the longer term, the new Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) given it considers fuel condition as ne of the key factors required to determine fire danger and support other decision -making.

The first phase of this project (2014-2017) involved the parallel investigation of several promising data sources and methods that can be categorised as either {\textquoteleft}in-field{\textquoteright} (grassland curing on-ground sensors and ground-based LiDAR laser scanning for fuel structure characterisation) or {\textquoteleft}national-scale{\textquoteright} (the Australian Flammability Monitoring System-AFMS, and the High-resolution Fire Risk and Impact (HiFRI) model-data fusion framework) methods. Generally, information derived from the national-scale methods appeared to represent enough accuracy and better return on investment and generated greater interest among end-users.

Consequently, over 2017-2020, this research project focused on ensuring the continuity of the AFMS but further developing the algorithms to estimate fuel moisture content (FMC), and through this, its acceptance and adoption. The AFMS provides information on FMC and flammability across Australia at 500m resolution every four days. It also displays information on soil moisture content near the surface (0-10 cm) and shallow soils (10-35 cm) as research outcomes from the project {\textquotedblleft}Improving land dryness measures and forecast{\textquotedblright}. Our research project also improved estimates of litter FMC by incorporating the effect of soil moisture content in existing physics-based models, developed a methodology to map fuel loads using satellite data and an objective and observation-based approach to assess fire danger that considers spatial data on the occurrence of actual fires as well as on fire factors that are already routinely produced every day for Australia.

The improved litter FMC, fuel load and fire danger retrieval algorithms and products derived from this project are not yet included in the AFMS nor generated at near real-time and across Australia. Further research and development is needed to make that step and providing landscape scale, cost-effective way to comprehensively monitor fuel condition and fire danger at such a broad scale. Consequently, future research should focus on developing a multi-sensor system that will display daily information on fire danger and fuel condition from whatever satellite sensor has collected an image over Australia, including high-resolution satellite imagery. This will improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the information we currently provide at the AFMS that will allow the identification of, for example, local fuel moisture gradients in the landscape that are currently not identifiable using the 500m pixel resolution of the product we currently serve in the AFMS.

The use of high-resolution satellite imagery will provide an unprecedented level of detail and accuracy when estimating fuel condition, bringing the system closer to use in operations. However, the data volumes and large compute resources required to store and generate these high-resolution products becomes a challenge. Consequently, future research should also focus on developing an alternative methodology for computing fuel condition that can provide up to date estimations by reducing the required storage and computing resources using state-of-the-art artificial intelligence algorithms.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, hazard, impacts, mapping}, issn = {616}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8096, title = {Measuring the social, environmental and economic consequences of bridge failure due to natural disasters}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, pages = {250}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

With an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters in recent times, the vulnerability of infrastructure assets to such events is a major concern for governments and communities worldwide. The last decade has seen an increase in the number of hydro-meteorological disasters, which have caused major social, economic and environmental impacts on the regions affected. Road bridges tend to be one of the most vulnerable infrastructure assets to hydro-meteorological events, as they are designed to cross water-ways and are built across the natural flow of water. As bridges play a vital role in the recovery of a community after a disaster by providing access to the disaster zone, the reconstruction of damaged bridges is a significant aspect of post-disaster recovery.

The prioritisation and reconstruction of bridges tend to be carried out based on financial and engineering assessments, with very limited focus on the wider social, environmental and economic impacts of the decisions made. This thesis argues that a holistic approach in assessing and prioritising bridge reconstruction will increase the sustainability and resilience of the wider infrastructure system. The ensuing research project, part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, has explored the importance of a more holistic approach to assessing post-disaster reconstruction impacts and has developed a framework that could be followed by academics and practitioners for this purpose.

The research used a mixed-methods approach; it relied on both quantitative and qualitative data in a single study. As one of the main objectives of the PhD was developing a framework that could be used to assess wider impacts, an iterative process was adopted, which helped in continuously improving the framework with the new knowledge that was gathered throughout the course of the candidature. The review of literature revealed that the majority of post-disaster assessments and subsequent decision-making processes tend to pay less attention to the wider social, environmental and economic impacts of road infrastructure failure. The literature that incorporated wider aspects tends to be focussed on specific impact categories, with none of the studies capturing a comprehensive set of impacts. The literature review also provided the opportunity to analyse the different techniques used by scholars to assess wider impacts, in order to select the most appropriate techniques for the purpose of the study.

Potential end-users of the framework were interviewed to understand how decision making in relation to post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction takes place in a practical sense. The interviews helped the researcher to identify how decision making could be optimised in a resource and time constrained post-disaster setting. The practical requirements of the decision makers were considered to develop a more suitable framework, thus increasing its potential adoption among road reconstruction authorities.

The developed framework was applied to a real life disaster situation - a flood - in which two bridges were damaged, and the resulting social, environmental and economic impacts were assessed. As part of the research project, a toolkit based on the framework was developed in order to carry out this assessment. To the best of the author{\textquoteright}s knowledge, this was the first instance where a comprehensive set of sustainability related impacts of the failure of rural road bridges were assessed. Results showed that the total sustainability related impacts vary based on where the bridge is located, and impacts could range between 25-30\% of the total impacts.

The framework and toolkit were validated through a series of interviews with practitioners and academics working in the areas of infrastructure reconstruction and sustainability. The interviews helped in refining the toolkit to better suit practical applications, without compromising the required theoretical and academic rigour. The reliability of the results obtained through its application in the case studies was tested with a follow-up questionnaire survey to residents in the area and interviews with decision makers working in the region. A further sensitivity analysis of the results was conducted in order to understand how changes in the input values and external variables affect the results. It was found that the socio-economic impacts could be reduced significantly by allowing restricted volumes of traffic to use a bridge rather than being completely closed off during the reconstruction period. A Cost-Benefit Analysis using the developed toolkit could be performed to identify the optimal intervention techniques.

The outcomes of this PhD research can be used by both academics and practitioners in assessing the wider socio-economic and environmental consequences of road infrastructure damage. The toolkit developed through this research is planned to be further modified for use by disaster management and road agencies through a CRC Utilisation Project. The outcomes of this thesis can thus be used by infrastructure engineers to optimise their decision making processes, thereby driving increased sustainability of infrastructure systems and resilience to future disaster events.

}, keywords = {Bridge reconstruction, Disaster management, Infrastructure Engineering and Asset Management, Infrastructure failure, Post-disaster decision making, socio-economic impacts, Sustainability assessment}, url = {https://researchrepository.rmit.edu.au/esploro/outputs/doctoral/Measuring-the-social-environmental-and-economic-consequences-of-bridge-failure-due-to-natural-disasters/9921892204801341$\#$details}, author = {Akvan Gajanayake} } @article {bnh-7030, title = {Model predictions for fuel reduction burning of eucalypt open forest in the greater Blue Mountains region}, number = {587}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Prescribed burns are a land management tool used for reducing fuel loads in terrestrial ecosystems. Under extended drier, hotter weather conditions they might be used increasingly and more widely to help manage risk of wildfire and subsequent damage to life, property and natural assets. They also represent a form of disturbance to ecosystems, including their biodiversity and biogeochemistry. From a biogeochemistry perspective, we apply the FullCAM carbon accounting model to eucalypt open forest sites in the greater Blue Mountains region that underwent prescribed burns and fieldwork campaigns in 2019. Field data were used to derive values and estimates that guided model calibration and helped to explore the suitability of FullCAM for simulating the effect of prescribed burning on this ecosystem type. The diameter at breast height of overstorey and understorey trees, leaf area index and surface litter fractions were key measurements for estimating production, allocation, turnover (litter input to surface debris) and breakdown (output from surface debris) of carbon pools of forest components and hence, for calibrating FullCAM. Measurements for paired burnt/unburnt plots were key to estimating loss of carbon from forest component pools to the atmosphere due to prescribed fire. Simulation of unburnt forest component pools were reasonable as a calibration, although improvements in simulating fractions of surface litter would probably improve simulations of the effect of prescribed fire on forest component pools. Recommendations related to collection of field data and to model structure are made to improve alignment between model-data comparisons.

}, keywords = {Blue Mountains, eucalypt, Fuel reduction burning, modelling, open forest, predictions}, issn = {587}, author = {David Pepper and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell and Danica Parnell} } @book {bnh-6848, title = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {368}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1}, address = {London}, abstract = {

This book explores policy, legal, and practice implications regarding the emerging field of disaster justice, using case studies of floods, bushfires, heatwaves, and earthquakes in Australia and Southern and South-east Asia. It reveals geographic locational and social disadvantage and structural inequities that lead to increased risk and vulnerability to disaster, and which impact ability to recover post-disaster.\  Written by multidisciplinary disaster researchers, the book addresses all stages of the disaster management cycle, demonstrating or recommending just approaches to preparation, response and recovery. It notably reveals how procedural, distributional and interactional aspects of justice enhance resilience, and offers a cutting edge analysis of disaster justice for managers, policy makers, researchers in justice, climate change or emergency management.

}, keywords = {disaster justice, Emergency management, environmental sociology, framework, Natural hazards, policies}, isbn = {978-981-15-0466-2}, issn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2}, url = {https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9789811504655$\#$aboutBook}, author = {Anna Lukasiewicz and Claudia Baldwin} } @article {bnh-6746, title = {Navigating Uncertainty: community experiences of bushfire}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, pages = {54-59}, abstract = {

This research examined how people directly affected by a catastrophic event respond to that event, individually and as a community. It shifts from concepts of {\textquoteleft}community-led{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}recovery{\textquoteright} after an event to a more pragmatic view of community disaster recovery. A catastrophic bushfire near Forcett, in Tasmania{\textquoteright}s south-east in 2013 is used to examine people{\textquoteright}s dependence on community and place to help then navigate the event. A constructivist grounded theory approach was used to identify a model of {\textquoteleft}Navigating Uncertainty{\textquoteright}. This covers three phases of {\textquoteleft}Losing the familiar{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Restoring the familiar{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Living with change{\textquoteright}. These phases illustrate how people experience the perilous situation where lives were threatened and homes, communities and livelihoods damaged or destroyed. In such situations, people{\textquoteright}s decision-making and action are often underpinned by individual and collective values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, catastrophic events, community, recovery}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2019-navigating-uncertainty-community-experiences-of-bushfire/}, author = {Fiona Jennings} } @article {bnh-6907, title = {Near infrared spectroscopy as a new fire severity metric}, number = {568}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Samples of leaves, twigs and bark representing typical surface fuels from forests and woodlands were systematically heated until combusted under controlled conditions in the laboratory. Change in colour of residue was described using R-conversion of the Munsell colour system and compared to colours generated from near infrared (NIR) scanning. Regardless of the method of heating used, there was very little change in physical properties or colour of residues when heated at low temperatures to 200

{\textdegree}C. Surface fuel samples began to thermally degrade when heated at 300 {\textdegree}C, which was reflected in much darker coloured residues that were mostly uniform in colour for different fuel types when determined from NIR spectroscopy. When surface fuels were combusted at temperatures between 400 and 600 {\textdegree}C, residues were much lighter in colour regardless of the type of fuel burnt. Again, residue colours were more uniform when described using NIR spectroscopy compared to the Munsell colour system, although differences in the consistency of residues (heterogenous production of charred material and ash) were still reflected in variations in shading. In several instances, colours resulting from NIR scans were closer to the actual colour of residues suggesting that it is a more accurate system than colour matching by eye using the Munsell colour system.

This study indicates that there is potential for NIR technology to be used to determine fire severity according to the colour of residue after fire. While the general method of colour matching is not new, the use of NIR spectroscopy can reduce inaccuracies associated with subjective colour matching and poor colour correlation when using some forms of automated colour conversion. As shown, spectroscopic methods such as NIR can also be used to assess chemical changes in fuels during thermal decomposition. This includes quantitative losses of carbon and nitrogen and estimating fire intensity according to the temperature that were required to form a particular residue.

}, keywords = {fire severity, infrared, metrics, spectroscopy}, issn = {568}, author = {Danica Parnell and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-7299, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes: annual report 2019-2020}, number = {606}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We have made good progress over the past 12 months and have completed a number of milestones. Fieldwork and analysis of associated samples has ben completed and the data sets generated have formed the basis of our modelling efforts. Research has included: (i) landscape-scale modelling of the effect of prescribed burning on evapotranspiration as the main driver for water use by vegetation; (ii) calibration and testing of FullCAM, a process-based model that can track carbon pools in forests systems, that we have shown is sensitive enough to integrate changes due to prescribed burning; (iii) testing of a fine fuel model that can be used to determine changes in biomass (fuel load) and carbon content in surface fuels without laborious sample collection and analysis; and (iv) use of near infrared spectroscopy to determine fire intensity and severity.

Modelling using FullCAM and the fine fuel model are tools that have very good potential to be adopted by end-user agencies when required to report on carbon emissions resulting from their efforts to manage fuels. For example, the fine fuel model is an easy-to-use tool that can be used as a guide for estimating potential for carbon loss due to prescribed burning. Our recent advances with near infrared spectroscopy of fire residues suggests that the next steps will be to move from a laboratory setting to the field to test the efficacy of hand-held devices. The potential to develop a simple, yet accurate method for determining fire intensity would aid in ground-truthing of fires to replace current methods that are mostly subjective.

Reporting on our progress has taken the form of milestone reports (draft reports and Technical Reports), bi-monthly newsletters directed towards our end-users, and presentations for local, national and international audiences. We have endeavoured to meet regularly with our primary end-user and have continued collaborations with research groups such as CSIRO and local land managers from NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. As our project ends, we will produce a synthesis of our research and will develop it further for peer-review publications.

}, keywords = {burning regimes, carbon, fuel reduction, vegetation, water}, issn = {606}, author = {Bell, Tina} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8092, title = {Optimising SAR-based flood extent assimilation for improved hydraulic flood inundation forecasts}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, pages = {363}, school = {Monash University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Accurate forecasts of flood inundation are vital to effective flood rescue, response, and resource allocation. However, uncertainty in inputs, boundaries, and parameters necessitate the use of independent observations to constrain flood predictions. Radar remote sensing allows the synoptic and systematic coverage of flooded areas and is thus a valuable resource for more accurate flood forecasts when combined with models. Accordingly, this thesis first improved the satellite-based probabilistic flood extent observation, and then designed a novel likelihood function to integrate such observations with flood model estimates yielding improved flood inundation forecasts.

}, keywords = {crowdsourcing, data assimilation, flood forecasting, flood inundation mapping, flood inundation modelling, hydraulic modelling, mutual information, sensitivity analysis, synthetic aperture radar, uncertainty reduction}, url = {https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/thesis/Optimizing_SAR-based_Flood_Extent_Assimilation_for_Improved_Hydraulic_Flood_Inundation_Forecasts/12375188}, author = {Antara Dasgupta} } @article {bnh-6819, title = {Physics-based simulation of firebrand and heat flux on structures in the context of AS3959}, number = {560}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Firebrand is known as one of the most dangerous airborne components of wildfires having the potential to ignite structures in Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI). Quantifying the firebrand and heat flux on structures is essential to determine the wildfire risks and prepare strategic plans to mitigate the hazard. We endeavor to use a physics-based model, Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) to map firebrand and heat flux to determine the vulnerability of structures in WUI. In this study, we have validated FDS{\textquoteright} tree burning and firebrand transporting sub-models against the experiment conducted in no wind condition at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The experimental data of firebands were processed to use as inputs in the numerical simulation and the grid convergence was appraised in terms of mass loss rate (MLR). The intial velocity and direction of firebrands, the number of generations were determined as model inputs by a reverse analysis through comparing firebrand distribution with the experiment. As the FDS{\textquoteright} sub-models were validated, we attempted to quantify the heat flux and firebrand risk on a structure at three different driving wind velocities. Increasing wind speed showed more firebrands transported towards the structure but none of them landed on the house because of the low height of the tree and insufficiency of fire-induced buoyancy to lift them enough to carry a longer distance by the wind field. Similarly, heat flux computed on the structure is well below Australian building standard AS3959{\textquoteright}s bushfire attack level (BAL). it is due to the low heat release by single tree burning instead of a 100m wide fire line assumed in the standard. In future study, simulations will be conducted with a cluster of taller trees (100m wide) to quantify the heat flux and firebrand hazard on structures to apprise AS3959.

}, keywords = {firebrand, heat flux, physics simulation, structures}, issn = {560}, author = {Amila Wickramasinghe and Nazmul Khan and Khalid Moinuddin} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6632, title = {Physics-based simulation of short-range spotting in wildfires}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, school = {Victoria University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Firebrands play a vital role in the propagation of fire fronts and starting new fires called spotfires ahead of fire fronts during wildfire progression. Firebrands are a harbinger of damage to infrastructure; their effects cause a particularly important threat to people living within the wildland-urban-interface, hampers the suppression of the wildfire or even blocking the evacuation routes for communities and emergency services. Short-range firebrands (\<750m) which travel along with the wind with little or no lofting are particularly crucial in increasing the fire front propagation and damaging structures situated closed to wildland-urban interface. In the Daylesford fire of 1962, massive short-range spotting (the process of spot fire ignition and merging of spots caused by firebrands) occurred in eucalyptus forest and increased the rate of fire spread by roughly three times more than the computed using empiricial correlation used by operational fire model. Despite the massive importance of short-range firebrands, little research has been conducted because of the safety risks and challenges of fire to emergency service personnel and to the remote equipment like collection boxes, IR cameras, UAVs, which could be used by researchers to quantify and measure fire properties. An operational model to represent the transport of short-range firebrand and their likelihood to ignite the surface fuel like forest litter could be developed from a numerical model. This study first attempts to validate a numerical model of firebrand transport with a set of benchmark experiments. The validation of numerical model is carried out using idealised regular shaped firebrand. Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) is an open-source Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based fire model which is used in this study. The validation of the numerical model is split into two parts focusing on validation of (1) transport, and (2) ignition potential of firebrands. Transport of short range firebrands are modelled in FDS using a lagrangian particle sub-model. The model was validated using two firebrand generators (a plastic pipe-based prototype and stainless steel based main firebrand generator) constructed at our facility as a part of this study. The firebrand generator is equipment which generates a repeatable firebrand shower in a confined space. There are few firebrand dragons built around the world. However, our firebrand generators produce a uniform flow field which simplifies the transport of short-range firebrand to be validated. The set of experiments conducted is used to validate the Lagrangian particle model available in FDS used in the transport of short-range firebrands. The validation is carried out on cubiform, cylindrical, and square disc-shaped firebrands. As the default drag model in FDS was not suitable for shapes of firebrands, the drag model is improved to account for a generic shape of firebrand particle. The results show a reasonable agreement with the experiments for all three shapes over a range of particle Reynolds number. A set of laboratory scale equipment is used to study the ignition likelihood from a short-range firebrand in the numerical model. The boundary fuel vegetation model of FDS is validated. The pyrolysis of vegetation is first tested using thermogravimetric analyser and then with cone calorimeter to estimate mass loss rate, heat-release rate, and time to sustained flaming ignition of three forest litter (pine, eucalyptus, and hay) fuels. Further, a set of thermo-physical properties (thermal conductivity, heat capacity, the heat of pyrolysis, the heat of combustion) of the material tested are also measured using in-house equipment required in the above numerical model. The result showed that the simple linear pyrolysis model is good enough for different forest litter tested with thermogravimetric analyser and cone calorimeter. Finally, a parametric study of short-range firebrand transport inside an open woodland forest canopy is carried out using the validated Lagrangian particle sub-model. The work focuses on understanding how firebrand distribution varies with a set of variable firebrand characteristics in a wildfire and set a stepping stone for the future study. The results are found to be qualitatively similar to the literature.

}, keywords = {Fire, Firebrands, fluid dynamics, simulation, spotting, transport, Wildfire}, url = {http://vuir.vu.edu.au/40025/}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani} } @article {bnh-6809, title = {Planning and capability requirements for catastrophic and cascading disasters}, number = {557}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Catastrophic events pose unique challenges and are inevitable. Previous reviews have highlighted gaps in Australia{\textquoteright}s preparedness for catastrophic disasters. Australia has no recent experience of a catastrophe, with the Spanish Flu (1918-19) and Cyclone Tracey (1974) being perhaps two historic examples that have overwhelmed systems of management. Catastrophic events require the adoption of a whole community approach. However, this is challenged by the culture of emergency services and wider community apathy. This report provides insights into the preparedness for catastrophic disasters based upon a review of the global literature. Implications for practitioners are discussed to assist in strengthening capability and capacity to reduce the likelihood of becoming overwhelmed.

}, keywords = {Capability, cascading disasters, Catastrophic, Planning}, issn = {557}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Michael Eburn and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-7705, title = {Planning and capability requirements for catastrophic and cascading disasters - final project report}, number = {634}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Background

Planning and capability requirements for catastrophic and cascading disasters\ was a three-year research project focusing on the research questions of:

The research\ was based on literature reviews; interviews with representatives from emergency management organisations, businesses and community organisations; analysis of historical disaster loss data and content analysis of previous business contributions to disaster responses.

Findings

While\ a truly catastrophic disaster is by definition unmanageable, emergency managers can still help reduce loss of life and property and assist in sustaining the continuity of affected communities (Harrald, 2006). However, business-as-usual response strategies that work for smaller, more frequent events will not cut it in truly catastrophic circumstances. Often the success of the response is reliant upon the capacities already present in communities. Emergency managers must look to bolster these extant capacities.

Emergency services need to conceptualise how their service delivery models will have to adjust to the overwhelming demand for services and the complexity of catastrophes, including how they will anticipate and work with community first responders. Emergency management organisations must define capabilities they are best able to deliver in support of wider community efforts. For other capabilities, planners should look to community-based sources to supplement those available within government and consider altering service delivery standards.

Our results support existing well defined principles for disaster planning and risk reduction (Alexander, 2005): however, we found they are not effectively implemented to develop plans that consistently inform decision making. Planning is being inhibited by cultural, knowledge and resource constraints dominated by reactive response-oriented approaches.

There is a lack of knowledge regarding collective capability requirements and gaps to manage severe-to-catastrophic disasters. Unlike the defence forces, emergency services collectively lack a long-term view of capability\ requirements. There is need for a collective national view of future capability\ requirements to inform investment.

Severe-to-catastrophic disasters will require resources beyond the impacted\ jurisdiction. Although resources are already shared between jurisdictions, there is\ a need to bolster approaches for jurisdictions to work seamlessly together,\ including investments to enhance interoperability and to strengthen\ mechanisms of national coordination. The Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s role must also be\ defined by Commonwealth emergency management legislation as has\ previously been recommended (Eburn et al., 2019).

The need for strengthening national coordination arrangements is reinforced by\ analysis of historical compound disasters, which shows that it is possible for\ numerous concurrent or sequential severe disasters to occur across multiple\ jurisdictions, resulting in potential resource conflicts across jurisdictions.

Our research ultimately supports the principle of shared responsibility. The whole-of-community approach recognises that any severe-to-catastrophic disaster will\ involve whole-of-society responses. Despite the recognition of the value of\ businesses and community organisations in the National Strategy for Disaster\ Resilience, emergency management approaches are based on an inadequate\ view of community organisation and business capabilities and the culture\ remains largely government-centric.

Governments, whilst considering the lessons of previous disasters, must be\ proactive, forward looking and risk-based. Capability and capacity\ requirements for severe-to-catastrophic disasters will likely evolve into the future\ due to societal, environmental and technological changes. Technology offers\ significant opportunities to enhance capabilities.

Ultimately, our research supports the need for further efforts to mitigate disaster\ risk and build resilience, similar to recommendations of the Productivity\ Commission and APRA.

Utilisation\ 

The\ project adopted a collaborative approach with end-users assisting to define\ research questions and utilisation outputs. A key utilisation output from the\ research has been an emergency management capability maturity assessment\ tool that can be utilised by jurisdictions and organisations to better understand\ potential capability gaps in the context of severe-to-catastrophic disaster\ scenarios. Through utilisation funding provided by the Bushfire and Natural\ Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, this tool will be promoted for use across\ all jurisdictions.

Following analysis of emergency management legislation, a model\ Commonwealth Emergency Management Act was drafted for consideration by\ end-users.

Outcomes of the research were presented as evidence to the 2020 Royal Commission\ into National Natural Disaster Arrangements.

}, keywords = {Capability, cascading, Catastrophic, disasters, Planning}, issn = {634}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Steve George and Michael Eburn and John McAneney and Matthew Timms and Stuart Browning} } @article {bnh-6782, title = {Progress report on case study CBD precinct}, number = {552}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The CRC Project A9 entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright} is seeking to address the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the earthquake risk posed by vulnerable Australian buildings. It aims to develop information related to more vulnerable Australian building types in the following areas:

This project also includes a case study to demonstrate the utility of the research with central Melbourne identified as the locality. Central Melbourne has a concentration of older unreinforced masonry buildings so the case study will examine the current risk posed by these and how they can be mitigated through application of the measures developed in this CRC project. Significantly this project will link to the concluding utilisation project on York and will integrate research outcomes on heritage value to be developed by the CRC project {\textquotedblleft}Economics of Natural Hazards{\textquotedblright} led by the University of Western Australia. This progress report describes the scope, the research elements and status of these, and the process by which they are being integrated into the final research outcomes. It also provides background to a requested variation to delay the final deliverable and associated CRC payment to enable other research outputs to be integrated.

This report corresponds with the 30 September 2019 project milestone deliverable {\textquotedblleft}Progress Report on Case Study CBSD Precinct{\textquotedblright}, BNHCRC reference 3.1.2.

}, keywords = {buildings, cbd, Decision making, earthquake risk, mitigation}, issn = {552}, author = {Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner and Mark Edwards and Itismita Mohanty} } @article {bnh-7501, title = {Quantifying fuel hazard assessments - Fuels3D annual report 2018-2019}, number = {627}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This annual report summarises the year 2019 for the Fuels3D project.\  This project was funded as half a project; the work considers the lack of repeatability and reliability with current field fuel hazard assessments. It demonstrates the precision of a semi-automated non-visual based assessments as compared to those collected through traditional visual assessment.\  The opportunity to bring together off-the-shelf, smart phone cameras and consumer grade digital cameras with advances in computer vision and photogrammetric techniques provide a cheap alternative for quantitative assessments compared to more accurate, but more expensive 3D mapping technologies (i.e. Lidar TLS).\  A tool chain and suite of computer vision and photogrammetric algorithms that use images captured in the field to produce 3D point clouds from which fuel hazard metrics are calculated. The developed technique is adaptive to 3D point clouds captured from other terrestrial technologies and can allow for changes in data collection technologies.

Highlights of 2018-2019 have included:

}, keywords = {fuel, fuels3D, hazard assessments, quantifying}, issn = {627}, author = {Bryan Hally and Karin Reinke and Luke Wallace and Simon Jones} } @article {bnh-7413, title = {Quantifying fuel hazard assessments - Fuels3D annual report 2019-2020}, number = {619}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This annual report summarises the year 2019 for the Fuels3D project.\  This project was funded as half a project; the work considers the lack of repeatability and reliability with current field fuel hazard assessments. It demonstrates the precision of a semi-automated non-visual based assessments as compared to those collected through traditional visual assessment.\  The opportunity to bring together off-the-shelf, smart phone cameras and consumer grade digital cameras with advances in computer vision and photogrammetric techniques provide a cheap alternative for quantitative assessments compared to more accurate, but more expensive 3D mapping technologies (i.e. Lidar TLS).\  A tool chain and suite of computer vision and photogrammetric algorithms that use images captured in the field to produce 3D point clouds from which fuel hazard metrics are calculated. The developed technique is adaptive to 3D point clouds captured from other terrestrial technologies and can allow for changes in data collection technologies.

Highlights of 2018-2019 have included:

}, keywords = {fuel hazard, fuels3D}, issn = {619}, author = {Bryan Hally and Karin Reinke and Luke Wallace and Simon Jones} } @article {bnh-6978, title = {Quantifying the conversion of vegetation to ash for soil carbon fingerprinting}, number = {572}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Samples of leaves, twigs and bark representing typical surface fuels from forests and woodlands were systematically heated and combusted under controlled conditions. Very little biomass, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) was lost when heated at low temperatures to 200 {\textdegree} and greatest losses occurred between 400 and 600

{\textdegree}C, regardless of the type of fuel burnt. Losses of C and N varied considerably with temperature. Carbon was lost when fuels were heated at temperatures of 300 {\textdegree}C or more. Nitrogen was relatively more abundant when heated at 400 {\textdegree}C, albeit at very low levels (less than 5\%). When heating time was varied there were noticeable differences in patterns of weight loss and changes in proportions of C and N. This indicates that both fire intensity and residence time is likely to be important in understanding losses of C and nutrients during fire, particularly during low intensity prescribed burning.

The use of colour of residues after heating surface fuel has the potential to determine fire severity. Existing technology such as near infra-red scanners can measure ash colour, not only indicating fire severity but also, by association, C and N losses from fire. Combustion studies done in a well-controlled laboratory environment could be used to interpret fireground conditions in relation to fire intensity and residence time, according to the nature and amount of charred material, charcoal and ash that remains after fire.

}, keywords = {Ash, milestone, soil carbon fingerprinting, vegetation}, issn = {572}, author = {Danica Parnell and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-8134, title = {The real-time trial of the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold}, number = {694}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This document reviews the real-time trial of the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold (PFT) diagnostic during the 2019/2020 southern Australian fire season. The PFT was developed with support from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, through the {\textquotedblleft}Improved prediction of severe weather to reduce community impact{\textquotedblright} project. While this report was primarily prepared to meet project requirements, it contains useful information and insight into the PFT and deep moist pyro-convection prediction more generally, that should be of value to fire-weather forecasters, fire-behaviour analysts and their parent agencies.

The report introduces the PFT in Section 1 and shows examples of the forecast products from the 2019/2020 season in Section 2. Throughout the trial users provided feedback that ranged from technical issues to broader forecasting challenges. This feedback identified confusion surrounding the definition of pyroCb (Section 3), and difficulties in forecasting this not-well-defined and not- well-understood phenomenon (Section 4). Many examples are presented in Section 5 to illustrate some of the more pertinent issues that arose throughout the trial. These include the limitations of using parcel theory to predict moist- plume growth, and the need to include more factors in lightning prediction. Examples are also provided that illustrate the limitations of various PFT products. The application of the PFT to climate studies is discussed in Section 6, where the minimising of false positives is of higher importance than for forecasting applications where expert users can separate real from false threats. Methods to address two of the issues raised in the report were developed with support from the Earth System and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government{\textquoteright}s National Environmental Science Programme. These are the reduction of false positives caused by unstable conditions during cold- outbreaks, and a procedure to bypass the parcel-theory assumption (Section 7). The report is summarized in Section 8, which includes a set of dot points that highlight areas for future investigation and lessons learned.

}, keywords = {extreme, firepower, PFT, pyrocumulonimbus, real-time, threshold, trial}, issn = {694}, author = {KJ Tory} } @article {bnh-6638, title = {Recirculation regions downstream of a canopy on a hill}, number = {538}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The large eddy simulation (LES) is performed to study the flow characteristics of atmospheric boundary layer over forested hills. The sparse and dense canopies are introduced in the hill structure and modelled by homogenous leaf area density. A pressure driven flow is established under neutrally stratified condition to explore the effect of hill and canopy induced perturbations including velocity speed-up, separation, attachment and recirculation. The presence of recirculation zone in the lee side of the can change the behavior of the flow field significantly. To be specific, the smoke and firebrand transport, spotfire ignition and fire intensity can be influenced by the formation of recirculation zone in the lee side forested hill. Moreover, the flow separation and attachment in the lee side of the hill or in near forest clearing can change the fire behavior and rate of spread significantly. This study extends previously developed physics-based simulations for the flow through forest canopies over flat surfaces by Duncan et al. [1] with inclusion of hilly terrains. The motivation is to develop a predictive model for the firebrand transport and spotfire ignition model extending the previous work of Rahul et al. [2], where a physics based firebrand model is developed and validated against laboratory-scale experimental data. How the recirculation can affect the formation and growth of firebrand transport and spotfire ignition in the hilly terrain is the long-term goal of this study. The streamwise mean velocity is increases with increases of hill height and canopy densities over a forested hill. The flow recirculation zone is nicely captured on the lee side of the hill with various degrees of size and shape with respect to vegetation densities and hill sizes. The size and shape of the recirculation zones largely depend on the steepness of the hill although canopy density has some contribution as well. The results of streamwise mean velocities, mean pressure, Reynolds stresses and streamlines of velocity fields are captured in this study, which are qualitatively in good agreement with the existing literature. Overall the simulation results show the applicability of FDS in such complex simulation that can be used in future studies for the fire simulation of hilly terrain.

}, keywords = {canopy, downstream, fire simulation, hilly terrain, recirculation}, issn = {538}, author = {Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-7197, title = {Recovery Capitals (ReCap): applying a community capitals framework to disaster recovery - annual report 2019/20}, number = {599}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The Recovery Capitals (ReCap) project applies a Community Capitals lens to disaster recovery to increase understanding about the interacting influences of social, built, financial, political, human, cultural and natural capital on wellbeing outcomes. It aims to support wellbeing after disasters by providing evidence-based guidance through a range of resources in different formats to accommodate different learning styles and ways of working.

ReCap has shown marked progress in the past year by engaging a large team of end-user and stakeholder organisations who are actively involved in progressive decision making. Detailed evidence mapping against the community capitals framework was undertaken using previous research conducted by the academic teams and collaborators. The first ReCap resource, a booklet containing key messages in an accessible format will be released as a pilot in July 2020 to meet the demand for support in current recovery efforts. \ The remaining ReCap resources will be produced and released later in 2020.

}, keywords = {community capitals, disaster recovery, framework, ReCap}, issn = {599}, author = {Lisa Gibbs and Phoebe Quinn and David Johnston and Denise Blake and Emily Campbell and John Richardson} } @article {bnh-6796, title = {Reimagining program monitoring and evaluation for disaster resilience outcomes}, number = {549}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Resilience is an approach to living with, managing, and adapting to aspects of change, complexity and uncertainty, including that arising from emergencies and disasters. A resilient community has the capacities and opportunities to: identify risk; absorb disruptive events and return to a functioning state; and, adapt or transform in anticipation of, or in response to, disruptive events. Community resilience arises from the ways that these capacities are valued, prioritised and addressed by community, government, business, and individual actions and activities - a so-called system of resilience.\ 

Disaster resilience is a new organising principle\ for the work that Australian emergency agencies\ undertake with communities. Agency programs\ directly or indirectly seek to enhance the capacities\ of communities to survive, thrive and adapt within a landscape of bushfires, floods, storms\ and cyclones. Yet agencies are also required to\ demonstrate the contribution that their programs\ make to disaster resilience.

A suite of monitoring and evaluation (M\&E)\ frameworks and techniques are available to track\ the effectiveness of community engagement, and\ other programs. Many emergency management\ agencies in Australia, and other disaster-related\ organisations such as insurers, adopt these\ frameworks and techniques. Yet the challenge\ heard from practitioners is how to monitor\ and evaluate the contributions of programs\ to disaster resilience. Traditional measures\ of disaster resilience include preparedness,\ recovery and mitigation, but disaster resilience\ also encompasses aspects of communities such\ as connectedness, social capital, co-learning,\ participation, access, adaptation, behaviour\ change, diversity, governance and networks.\ Monitoring and evaluating therefore needs\ to address the impacts of programs on these\ aspects of disaster resilience. This endeavour is\ not unique to emergency management agencies: practitioners in climate change adaptation,\ international development, community\ development and environmental science are also\ developing ways to monitor and evaluate resilience\ outcomes.

There is no easy answer to the challenge of monitoring and evaluating programs for disaster resilience outcomes. This is partly because the adoption of resilience concepts into policy and programs is in its early stages, and partly because resilience thinking requires fundamental transformation in the design and implementation of community engagement programs, and the collection of data to track effectiveness. In essence, emergency agency practitioners and the communities they work with are themselves generating the new monitoring and evaluation frameworks, techniques, program designs and governance structures required to progress towards disaster resilience goals.

Emergency management agencies face the challenge of monitoring and evaluating the contribution of their programs for disaster resilience. However, given the diversity of legislative and strategic environments in Australia, the implementation of monitoring and evaluation frameworks will be unique to each agency.

This report is a self-reflective guide for taking program evaluation for disaster resilience outwards to examine progress and tracking towards goals of disaster resilience.\ 

Resilience is an approach to living with, managing,and adapting to aspects of change, complexityand uncertainty, including that arising fromemergencies and disasters. A resilient communityhas the capacities and opportunities to: identifyrisk; absorb disruptive events and return to afunctioning state; and, adapt or transform inanticipation of, or in response to, disruptive events.Community resilience arises from the waysthat these capacities are valued, prioritised andaddressed by community, government, business,and individual actions and activities {\textendash} a so-calledsystem of resilience.Disaster resilience is a new organising principlefor the work that Australian emergency agenciesundertake with communities. Agency programsdirectly or indirectly seek to enhance the capacitiesof communities to survive, thrive and adaptwithin a landscape of bushfires, floods, stormsand cyclones. Yet agencies are also required todemonstrate the contribution that their programsmake to disaster resilience.

}, keywords = {disaster resilience, Evaluation, program monitoring, resilience outcomes}, issn = {549}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Holly Foster} } @article {bnh-7802, title = {Report on the second end-user workshop {\textendash} Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East Coast Lows}, number = {642}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A virtual End-User Workshop was held on 25 and 27 August 2020 to present key outcomes of the Impact-based forecasting for the coastal zone: East Coast Lows project. This was the second end-user workshop for the project, and focused on four key themes:

  1. Verification of impact forecasts
  2. Demonstrating evolution of impact forecasts
  3. Identifying needs to deliver and support future impact forecast products
  4. Future utilisation opportunities.

We invited participants from emergency services agencies in Queensland, NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, along with Emergency Management Australia (EMA). Also participating were a number of Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) officers who are embedded within the respective State Operations Centres in several states. A full list is provided at the end of this report.

}, keywords = {coastal zone, east coast low, Forecasting, impact based}, issn = {642}, author = {Harald Richter and Craig Arthur and David Wilke and Mark Dunford and Martin Wehner and Beth Ebert} } @article {bnh-6642, title = {A report on WRF software development (preliminary)}, number = {539}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire is one of the major natural hazards Australia encounters every year because of its dry weather and widespread bushlands. During the dry season, occurrence of simultaneous bushfires at different locations is quite common. The fire management authorities face challenges on deployment of resources (human and other logistics) properly to mitigate multiple bushfires. To prioritize, they depend on the modelling of real-time behaviours of the fire under consideration. Fire rate of spread (RoS) is one of the most important parameters that the authority wants to determine before proceeding to resource allocation. RoS during forest fire can be slowed by reduced sub-canopy wind. In operational models, it is accounted by a parameter, wind reduction factor (WRF). Current values used as WRF are not based on science. In this work, we are presenting a software (preliminary version) that can calculate WRF scientifically. We apply a dynamic WRF obtained from a mathematical model in an operation model, Spark. This will lead to better prediction of RoS, once fully implemented.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, fire management, model, Rate of spread, software development}, issn = {539}, author = {Mahmood Rashid and James Hilton and Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-6980, title = {Sampling and data analysis of field sites of 40 prescribed burns}, number = {573}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report provides a summary of the main features of the sites sampled as burn units in the Blue Mountains, NSW to characterise the biomass, carbon and nitrogen held in vegetation/fuel in unburnt and burnt sites. Sites sampled in Victoria and NSW for refinement and testing of current surface fuel models is also provided. Details of how empirical data collected from the field has been used in our modelling efforts and in student projects has been provided.

}, keywords = {data analysis, field sites, prescribed burns, sampling}, issn = {573}, author = {Bell, Tina and Danica Parnell and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-6790, title = {Savanna fire management and bushfire and natural hazard scenario planning for north Australia}, number = {555}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia{\textquoteright} project is part of CDU{\textquoteright}s northern hub second round suite of projects, which commenced in July 2017. The hub involves collaborations between the Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research (DCBR) at Charles Darwin University (CDU), the North Australia Indigenous Land \& Sea Management Alliance Ltd (NAILSMA), the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network (ARPNet) also based at CDU, and regional stakeholders including north Australian Fire and Emergency Management agencies, Conservation Agencies and remote Indigenous communities. In this report, we provide summaries of the work undertaken to date in the two main components of the Northern hub{\textquoteright}s scenario planning project.

Firstly, we are developing a framework for the Fire \& Emergency Services agencies to engage with remote Indigenous communities to potentially improve Emergency Services delivery. The agencies recognise the need to improve the services provided remotely, but also recognise that in part and in some jurisdictions (particularly the NT) not only are they not funded to achieve this, also that the classic model of volunteering does not suit remote Indigenous community members, who are too busy dealing with unemployment and poverty. However, the expanding Indigenous Ranger program is a potential means to more appropriately engage with local Indigenous people to build resilience and disaster assistance.

The process has involved a suite of case studies where interviews have been undertaken with members of the, now, wide-spread Indigenous Ranger programs to ascertain the aspirations, willingness and capacity of the Indigenous Rangers to engage in EM activities. In this report, we provide summaries of the activities undertaken and information gathered to date at Hermannsberg in Central Australia, Broome in the Kimberley, Galiwinku on Elcho Island off Arnhem Land and Borroloola on the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Secondly, we are continuing the program of service delivery of land management, monitoring and evaluation tools to assist fire managers in remote north Australia to develop {\textquotedblleft}Improved Fire Management Regimes{\textquotedblright}, by providing information with respect to the spatial distribution, and effects of fires on tropical savanna and rangeland habitats through the Savanna Monitoring \& Evaluation Reporting Framework (SMERF). In this report, we outline the further development of SMERF, in particular the proofing of the fire metrics collated in the previous year with a Far North Queensland Conservation estate case study in conjunction with partners at Queensland Parks \& Wildlife.

}, keywords = {fire management, Savanna, scenario planning}, issn = {555}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-7739, title = {Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia - final project report}, number = {636}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia{\textquoteright} project is part of CDU{\textquoteright}s northern hub second round suite of projects, commencing in July 2017. The hub involves collaborations between the Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research (DCBR) at Charles Darwin University (CDU), the North Australia Indigenous Land \& Sea Management Alliance Ltd (NAILSMA), the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network (ARPNet) also based at CDU, and regional stakeholders including north Australian Fire and Emergency Management agencies, conservation agencies and remote Indigenous communities. In this report, we provide summaries of the work undertaken over the project period in the two main components of the Northern hub{\textquoteright}s scenario planning project.

Firstly, we have been developing a framework for the Fire \& Emergency Services agencies to engage with remote Indigenous communities to potentially improve Emergency Services delivery. The agencies recognise the need to improve the services provided remotely, but also recognise that\  some jurisdictions (particularly the NT) are\  not adequately resourced to achieve this,. The classic model of volunteering does not suit remote significantly disadvantaged Indigenous community members in remote communities. However, the expanding Indigenous Ranger program is a potential means to more appropriately engage with local Indigenous people to build local emergency management (EM) capacity, preparedness, resilience and disaster response.

This research has developed\  a suite of case studies. In each case,\  interviews/workshops have been conducted with members of the, now, wide-spread Indigenous Ranger Groups (IRGs) to ascertain the aspirations, willingness and capacity of the Indigenous Rangers to engage in EM activities. In this report, we provide summaries of the activities undertaken and information gathered to date at Hermannsberg and Yuendumu in Central Australia, Broome, Beagle Bay and Bidyadanga in the Kimberley, Galiwinku on Elcho Island off Arnhem Land, in Bulukhuduru, Ramingining and Ngukkurr in Arnhem Land, and Borroloola on the Gulf of Carpentaria. Main identified issues across the selected remote communities include little engagement of locals, if any, in managing emergency situations around the community, inappropriate placement of EM plans in police stations, lack of resoruces and services in remote communities, broader recognition of IRGs capacity to deliver EM services, and willingness of IRGs to participate in EM services.

Secondly, this research continues the service delivery program of land management, monitoring and evaluation tools to assist fire managers in remote north Australia. To develop {\textquotedblleft}Improved Fire Management Regimes{\textquotedblright}, we provide information with respect to the spatial distribution, and effects of fires on tropical savanna and rangeland habitats through the Savanna Monitoring \& Evaluation Reporting Framework (SMERF). In particular, we include the development of a fire severity map product, not only to inform land management, but to improve Savanna Burning greenhouse gas emissions calculations.

Finally, this report addresses ongoing priorities identified by partner agencies and community stakeholders requiring further action-based research and implementation, especially addressing:

}, keywords = {northern Australia, Planning, remote community, risk management, scenario}, issn = {636}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @inbook {bnh-6976, title = {Shallow Fire Literacy Hinders Robust Fire Policy: Black Saturday and Prescribed Burning Debates}, booktitle = {Disasters in Australia and New Zealand: Historical Approaches to Understanding Catastrophe}, year = {2020}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1}, chapter = {7}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disasters in Australia and New Zealand\ brings together a collection of essays on the history of disasters in both countries. Leading experts provide a timely interrogation of long-held assumptions about the impacts of bushfires, floods, cyclones and earthquakes, exploring the blurred line between nature and culture, asking what are the anthropogenic causes of {\textquoteleft}natural{\textquoteright} disasters? How have disasters been remembered or forgotten? And how have societies over generations responded to or understood disaster? As climate change escalates disaster risk in Australia, New Zealand and around the world, these questions have assumed greater urgency. This unique collection poses a challenge to learn from past experiences and to implement behavioural and policy change. Rich in oral history and archival research,\ Disasters in Australia and New Zealand\ offers practical and illuminating insights that will appeal to historians and disaster scholars across multiple disciplines.

}, keywords = {Australia, disaster impacts, disasters, history, new zealand}, isbn = {978-981-15-4381-4}, doi = {10.1007/978-981-15-4382-1}, url = {https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9789811543814$\#$aboutBook}, author = {Daniel May} } @inbook {bnh-6975, title = {Shaped by Fire: How Bushfires Forged Migrant Environmental Understandings and Memories of Place}, booktitle = {Disasters in Australia and New Zealand: Historical Approaches to Understanding Catastrophe}, year = {2020}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1}, chapter = {2}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disasters in Australia and New Zealand\ brings together a collection of essays on the history of disasters in both countries. Leading experts provide a timely interrogation of long-held assumptions about the impacts of bushfires, floods, cyclones and earthquakes, exploring the blurred line between nature and culture, asking what are the anthropogenic causes of {\textquoteleft}natural{\textquoteright} disasters? How have disasters been remembered or forgotten? And how have societies over generations responded to or understood disaster? As climate change escalates disaster risk in Australia, New Zealand and around the world, these questions have assumed greater urgency. This unique collection poses a challenge to learn from past experiences and to implement behavioural and policy change. Rich in oral history and archival research,\ Disasters in Australia and New Zealand\ offers practical and illuminating insights that will appeal to historians and disaster scholars across multiple disciplines.

}, keywords = {Australia, disaster impacts, disasters, history, new zealand}, isbn = {978-981-15-4381-4}, doi = {10.1007/978-981-15-4382-1}, url = {https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9789811543814$\#$aboutBook}, author = {Gretel Evans} } @article {bnh-6808, title = {Simplified calculation of roof accelerations in existing low-rise symmetric unreinforced masonry buildings with flexible diaphragms}, journal = {Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, abstract = {

A formulation is presented for simplified evaluation of the roof acceleration response for the purpose of assessing non-structural components in unreinforced masonry buildings with flexible diaphragms excluding torsional effects. The method is based on modal calculations that are further studied through nonlinear time-history analysis (NLTHA) of four case study buildings. The NLTHA results for a relatively small level of ground shaking was used to validate the overall ability of the simplified modal method to predict the diaphragm flexibility effects. The NLTHA results were also used to discuss the effects of the building inelastic response in the conservatism of the simplified modal technique. It was found that, in lieu of a comprehensive modal analysis, it is possible to calculate roof accelerations in symmetric low-rise buildings with flexible diaphragms using a simplified two-mode modal method. Based on this study, a predictive method is proposed for conservative estimation of peak roof accelerations in these buildings.

}, keywords = {acceleration response, flexible diagrams, height amplification factor, unreinforced masonry}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00823-1}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10518-020-00823-1$\#$citeas}, author = {Hossein Derakhshan and Yasuto Nakamura and Michael Griffith and Manicka Dhanasekar} } @article {bnh-6830, title = {Simulation of flows through canopies with varying atmospheric stability}, number = {562}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Large eddy simulation is performed of a flow through forest canopy over a range of atmospheric stabilities. A heat source is introduced at the top of the tree canopy to model the heating of canopy top by solar energy, Unlike our previous report [1] where an ideal Monin-Obukhov method was used for the surface heat flux variation, this study has introduced a varying volumetric heat flux in a sub-canopy region. The flow field develops naturally with the applied thermal stratification and pressure-driven flow. The forest canopy modelled using the leaf area density (LAD) of pine trees. The simulation is allowed for a sufficient time, of the order of 20000 s, to adjust with the applied heat flux in the domain. The simulation is attempted for two broad classes: stable and unstable situations with varying negative and positive fluxes, respectively. The simulation results are validated against the numerical study of Nebenfuhr et al. [2] and the field measurement taken at Ryningsnas, Sweden [3]; which shows a good agreement. The effect of canopy top heat flux on different atmospheric stabilities are studied in detail and we present mean velocity and Reynolds stresses. These results suggest that atmospheric stability may affect the rate of spread and pollution dispersion, especially in the case of unstable stratifications. There is a need to understand atmospheric stabilities for accurate analysis of wildland fire spread and fire intensity. Most importantly, flame characteristics must be carefully diagnosed with due account for different atmospheric conditions prevailing in real wildland fire for reducing property damage and loss of lives.

}, keywords = {atmospheric boundary layer, forest canopy, thermal stratification, turbulence, turbulent kinetic energy}, issn = {562}, author = {Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-6567, title = {Simulation optimisation for natural hazard risk management}, number = {533}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we outline a decision-support framework for natural hazard management that combines the use of simulation and optimisation for exploring what risk reduction measures best achieve management priorities. This framework addressed several needs that practitioners have with regard to risk and adaptation assessment. First, it uses optimisation approaches to screen through and identify those management options that perform best across a number of decision criteria. This is important, as there are a very diverse range of management options which could be combined in an extremely large number of ways to make portfolios of management options and it is difficult to screen through all potential portfolios to shortlist a small number for further consideration. Second, it simulates the effectiveness of management options over long-term planning horizons. This is important, for management options may have long lead-in-times, and/or may have long lifetimes, are not easily/readily changed, and so need to be effective over a broad range of plausible future conditions, which likely include larger populations, increased economic development and climate change. Third, the framework emphasises holistic assessment, wherein the Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) simulates the effect of management options across a number of criteria, therefore allowing practitioners to explore the trade-offs between risk reduction with other community goals, including environmental, social and economic outcomes.


The value of this framework arises from the greater demands that are being placed on planners to effectively manage natural hazard risk, whether from politicians or from the public who have an increasingly reduced appetite for hazard losses. This creates a need for analytic frameworks for exploring how to best manage risk, and this framework addresses this gap.


Through application to a case study, this report shows how the framework is able to increase the effectiveness and efficiency by which IAM can be applied to natural hazard risk management. The role of the optimisation was seen not to be prescriptive, but to enable better exploration of risk management options. The framework was therefore able to provide rich information on the effectiveness of management portfolios by which better risk management plans could be formed.


The case study to which the framework was applied considered coastal flood risk within Greater Adelaide and explored the combinations of zonal exclusion areas along the coast which prevented further development. If unmitigated, coastal risk could increase by 10\% over the next three decades. However, results of the case study application showed that zonal exclusion policies could effectively reduce this growth of coastal risk, however this required excluding further development from 7000 Ha of land along the coast. Saying that, the growth in risk could be limited to 3\% (i.e. a reduction in growth by 60\%), through excluding coastal development from only 1500 Ha.

}, keywords = {natural hazard, optimisation, risk management, simulation}, issn = {533}, author = {Jeffrey Newman and Graeme Dandy and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Charles Newland and Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell} } @article {bnh-6995, title = {A systematic literature review of effectiveness of community engagement for preparedness techniques}, number = {514}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This systematic literature review originally aimed to provide detail of the effect of disaster preparedness activities by individuals on their household{\textquoteright}s safety and coping during a natural hazard. The aim was presented as:

To present an index of what has been found to be the most effective household/personal preparedness activities across a range of hazards.

However, as the review proceeded, two things indicated to the research team that the focus of the project needed to be reviewed.

Firstly, no articles were found that effectively measured the effect of any single preparedness activity on the safety or coping of people in a natural hazard. This is explained further in the report.

Secondly, the review process uncovered significant numbers of studies that had measured the effect of community engagement techniques.\  At this point, the research team decided to add an engagement tools evaluation to the review and present the results of both aspects of the preparedness picture, with this additional overall aim:

To present a review of community engagement techniques and their levels of success.

This report details the process and outcomes of the systematic literature review component of the project.

It documents a systematic literature review that is part of a larger Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre project, Mapping Approaches to Community Engagement for Preparedness in Australia.

As a systematic literature review, it uses protocols already employed by disaster social scientists (such as Miller et al., 2017) and is informed by the Campbell Collaboration and similar protocols for these types of documents. The review builds on the work of a number of researchers (Dunlop, McNeill, Boylan, Morrison, \& Skinner, 2014a). Dunlop et al. 2014; Heagele 2016; Kohn et al., 2012; Uscher-Pines et al., 2013) to identify most effective and therefore most important preparation activities.\ \  The objectives of the project were to:

  1. Collate a list of personal preparedness activities that have been examined for their effect around the world, and these examinations published in English
  2. Collate a list of all of the community engagement tools and techniques that have been evaluated around the world and these examinations published in English
  3. Review the success or otherwise of these tools in quantifiable terms
  4. Emerge from the review with a tool kit for community communication and engagement containing a wide range of tools for a variety of circumstances

Four research questions guided this systematic literature review:

  1. What are the most effective household/personal preparedness activities across a range of hazards?
  2. What philosophical or engagement frameworks are being used or examined in the literature?
  3. What tools are being used to engage communities?
  4. What research methods were used to evaluate these tools or programs?

Using a systematically developed set of search terms that focused on preparedness activity , we searched a range of databases and secured 1,331 articles.\  In addition, we searched a range of grey literature sites and found a further 120 possibilities. After a search for duplicates, we had a database of 1,451 studies.\  Two screening processes were then employed {\textendash} searches of titles and abstracts, at which point, 1,328 studies were discarded because they were off topic, about recovery, conceptually off track, dealt with human-generated hazards, used descriptive data, or researched agency responses instead of community.

At this point we realised that studies researching the effect of discrete preparedness activities were not emerging and that community engagement techniques were.\  Once a decision was made to also consider community engagement techniques, the process was repeated for the same result. The search was effective for both because of the focus on preparedness activity, which is also an effect of good community engagement.\  Articles were then read in full to assess eligibility on the same criteria as the previous step, with 82 excluded at this point, leaving 41 articles for review.

The next step was the review the articles with each of the objectives in mind.

Objective 1 was not achieved because of the lack of research undertaken on this topic.

Objective 2 was collation of a list of community engagement tools used and evaluated around the world and this is presented in table form.\  The engagement techniques ranged from our own strategic community fire safety programs such as Community Fire Safe and FireGuard, to one off tools such as gaming simulations, exercises and co-design workshops.\  It also included information and education tools, some of which were shown to be effective.

Objective 3 related to a review of the success or otherwise of these engagement tools.\  Evaluation methods ranged from statistically rigorous pre and post surveys, as well as some attempts at longitudinal studies, to observation of workshop activity.\  Because of the systematic review process, research quality has been calculated and reported according to formulae developed for this process. The outcomes and quality are summarised in Tables 5 and 6, but detailed further in the report.

Objective 4 related to emergence of a toolkit of community engagement techniques that is also a deliverable for the wider project.\  The toolkit is detailed in raw form in Table 5, and articulated in more detail in Section 3.5.\  A toolkit format that sits more comfortably outside the systematic literature review and is more easily used by practitioners has been developed as a deliverable of the larger project and is available on the BNHRC website.

We have made recommendations arising from the limitations that we encountered in undertaking this study.\  The key of these limitations was that agencies establish a more systematic process of evaluation, and a more scheduled subsequent sharing of program and technique evaluation results.\  As well, agencies have taken the lead on preparedness checklists as an easy mechanism for the community to undertake preparedness.\  Academic research has followed, but has overlooked testing the assumptions on which these checklists rest.\ 

Household preparation techniques are backed by fire science, and building and property codes subsequently based on this science, but personal safety and coping preparation activities have not been tested for efficacy. We recommend from this limitation that the effect of discrete preparedness activities be tested, and we have suggested research techniques that could be used. Thirdly, the studies we reviewed lacked consistency and rigour, making comparisons difficult and context hard to determine.\ \  We believe that industry and academia could collaborate to develop minimum requirements for such research that enables full closure of the community preparedness knowledge loop.

}, keywords = {community engagement, literature review, Preparedness}, issn = {514}, author = {Barbara Ryan and Kim Johnston and Maureen Taylor and Ryan McAndrew} } @article {bnh-6988, title = {A typology of disaster resilience in Australia - annual report 2018-19}, number = {576}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The themes that influence disaster resilience in different locations in Australia are summarised using a typology.\  A typology identifies SA2s (Statistical Area 2 divisions of the ABS) that have similar characteristic patterns of theme sub-index values, and places these SA2s together into groups.\  Thus, the SA2s within a group are similar to each other, but each group has a different disaster resilience profile.\  The profile associated with each group can then be used to understand disaster resilience in local communities and the strengths and opportunities for enhancing or improving disaster resilience.

Cluster analysis revealed five disaster resilience profiles in Australia.\  The SA2s within a group all have a similar profile {\textendash} that is, they have similar disaster resilience strengths and constraints.\  Most SA2s fall into Group 4, and these are largely in metropolitan Australia.\  In comparison to other groups, areas within Group 4 are best placed overall to cope with and adapt to complex change associated with natural hazards.\  Areas in Group 3 are largely in regional and remote areas.\  Areas with this disaster resilience profile have an enhanced pro-social setting, but face constraints from economic capital, planning and the built environment, emergency services, information access and governance and leadership.\  Areas with the Groups 1 and the Group 5 disaster resilience profile are constrained by community capital and social character.\  Areas with the Group 2 disaster resilience profile are largely inner regional areas with reduced access to information and telecommunications services.\  Variation in the strengths and constraints on disaster resilience suggests that place-based strategies need to be applied to support the different dimensions of disaster resilience.

}, keywords = {ANDRI, annual report, disaster resilience}, issn = {576}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Sonya Glavac and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Graham Marshall and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-6929, title = {Understanding post-fire fuel dynamics using burnt permanent forest plots}, number = {569}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The main goal of this study is to obtain empirical measurements of fuel load, structure and hazard within the first year after a fire to complement the measurements of fuel loads taken directly before the fires. This will not only allow us to precisely quantify the fuels consumed by these relatively low-severity fires, but it will also give us a baseline measurement of fuel loads. We can use this baseline to anchor measurements of fire severity and fuel accumulation in wet eucalypt forests related to other BNHCRC studies attempting to measure both fuel accumulation and the drivers of fire severity in wet forests.

The flammability of tall wet eucalypt forests is poorly understood. A globally unique forest type, these forests consist of a highly-flammable Eucalyptus overstorey and a moist, non-flammable understorey consisting of rainforest and broadleadf trees and shrubs.[i], As a result, these forests are rarely available to burn, and almost no data exists on flammability and fire behaviour. While current fire behaviour models assume that fuel load and hence flammability increase asymptotically as a function of time since previous fire, there is much debate over whether this is the true trajectory of flammability in these forests. Understanding how fire severity is influenced by fuels and time since fire is a critical question in these forests.

As the rate of spread and intensity of a fire is a function of fuels, fire weather and topography, and as only the latter can be physically manipulated, the effect of fire on fuel loads is extremely important to understand.\  Low-severity fires are known to reduce surface fine fuels loads across a landscape in certain forest types, so intentionally lighting low-severity fires (i.e. planned burns), will increase the encounter rate of wildfires with low fuel load areas.7 However the effect of low-severity fires in wetter forests is mostly unstudied. While reducing fuel ages has been shown to reduce both the extent and incidence of unplanned fires, the effect of low severity fires on actual fuel loads has not been explicitly quantified.\  While the period of effectiveness of a planned burn has been generally reported to be 5-6 years,8,\ these studies have looked at the empirical probability or size of unplanned fires as a function of fuel age, no studies that we could find in Australia measured fuel loads directly after a low-severity fire.

}, keywords = {eucalypt forest, fuel dynamics, permanent forest plots, post-fire}, issn = {569}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-7510, title = {Urban planning and natural hazard risk reduction: critical frameworks for best practice}, number = {631}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Urban planning offers a range of potential benefits to reduce or even avoid many of the risks associated with natural hazards.\  However, it is is not always fully utilised as a core mechanism to manage natural hazard risks, particularly those relating to human settlements.

This document sets out a critical framework to guide improved integration of land use planning and wider natural hazard risk reduction actions. It is intended to support emergency managers and urban and regional planning practitioners in the complex task of integrating land use planning and disaster risk reduction in different Australian jurisdictions. The critical framework has been designed to speak to current terminology, processes and arrangements already used by these audiences.

The diagnostioc tools are scalable and adapatable to various circumstances and needs. Hence, the diagnoses can be applied to particiular hazards, certain geographical places, parts of or the entire planning system, or specific challenges associated with disaster risk reductions.

Three interconnected elements comprise the diagnstic tools, based on developing and applying knowledge regarding:

  1. Natural Hazards, the sources of harm or situations with a potential to cause loss with their core transmission systems in the natural world.0F[1]
  2. Cross-Cutting Themes, core disaster risk reduction principles that apply to all urban planning, settlement and natural hazard circumstances.
  3. Diagnostic Focus Areas, risk reduction principles that relate to key categories of urban planning, communities and the range of other systems they interact with.

The diagnostic tool includes a sequenced approach to examine complex situations and to develop logical and evidence-based directions for improved urban planning. This also allows improved connections with wider Disaster Risk Reduction practices.\ 

1 {\textendash} Establish Context, scope and key focus

2 {\textendash} Analyse focus area(s) in terms of relevant hazards

3 {\textendash} Analyse focus area(s) in terms of cross-cutting themes and challenges

4 {\textendash} Analyse focus area(s) in terms of specific diagnostic focus areas

5 {\textendash} Review and adjust or modify as appropriate

[1] It is assumed here that expertise and data will mainly come from a variety of credible sources as a basis for effective action.\  Accordingly, detailed descriptions of each hazard are not included here. Rather, reference to more exhaustive materials available elsewhere is provided.

}, keywords = {frameworks, natural hazard, practice, risk reduction, urban planning}, issn = {631}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Hedwig van Delden and Janet Stanley and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7164, title = {Urban planning capabilities for bushfire: treatment categories and scenario testing}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, pages = {32-40}, abstract = {

The challenges facing settlements relating to bushfire require integrated approaches that manage risks across a wide range of factors. This paper sets out a framework demonstrating how urban planning, when coupled with appropriate decision support and future scenario testing, can reduce risks relating to bushfire while considering future growth. Examples of how planning can modify aspects of risk in association with scenario testing are included. Five main categories of risk reduction treatments are shown. The paper contributes to risk reduction by providing practical mechanisms for risk avoidance and treatment via urban and land-use planning systems combined with forward scenario testing to guide existing settlements and future growth.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, capabilities, scenario testing, treatment, urban planning}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-july-2020-urban-planning-capabilities-for-bushfire-treatment-categories-and-scenario-testing/}, author = {Alan March and Graeme Riddell and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Dovers, Steve and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7465, title = {Using pre- and post-fire LiDAR to assess the severity of the 2019 Tasmanian bushfires: field survey methods}, number = {620}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In January 2019, over 64,000 ha of bushland burned in the Riveaux Road fire in Tasmania{\textquoteright}s southern forests. Most of this burning occurred in tall wet eucalypt forest. These forests are considered to be highly flammable in dry conditions, but fires are infrequent due to the generally cool, wet climate in which they grow. As a result, limited data exists on the behaviour and effects of wildfire in these forests. Prior to these fires, extensive areas of these southern forests have been studied in-depth. In 2014, a large area of the forests that burned were mapped with aerial LiDAR, a remote-sensing technology that can characterise three-dimensional forest structure. Further, in 2016, detailed field-based measurements of fuel load, structure, and hazard were taken at 12 permanent plot which subsequently burned in 2019. Hence, the 2019 fires in Tasmania represent a globally-rare opportunity to characterise the severity of a large wildfire using pre-fire and post-fire data. In October 2019, the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE) in Tasmania, along with five other BNHCRC end-users and the University of Tasmania, launched a project to do just this, using remote-sensing and field-based data to create a detailed case study of the 2019 Riveaux Rd. Fire, and to untangle the drivers of fire severity in tall wet eucalypt forests.

Here, we present the Methodology this study. We took measurements at the 12 permanent plots that burned, dividing our measurements based on 2 levels of detail, based on the level of detail of the pre-fire measurements. In four plots we took {\textquoteleft}Level 1{\textquoteright} measurements, undertaking an overstorey census over 1 ha, assessing overstorey mortality. In 12 plots, we took {\textquoteleft}Level 2{\textquoteright} measurements, which involved characterising understorey phiognomy, structure fuel load, and fire hazard along 3-4 transects at each plot. For Level 1\&2 measurements we also took numerous fire severity measurements, such as char height and burnt tip diameter.\  We also developed a {\textquoteleft}Level 3{\textquoteright} methodology of mostly qualitative fire severity indices that could be quickly conducted at many sample points across the landscape. quantifying fuel load, structure, mortality, hazard, and fire severity indices such as char height and burnt tip diameter. We also outline the next steps to be taken for this project.

}, keywords = {2019 Tasmania fires, field survey method, fire severity, Lidar}, issn = {620}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and Scott Foyster and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-6566, title = {Using the human centred design method to develop tools for non-technical skills in emergency management}, number = {532}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Human Centred Design (HCD) is a widely used design process that seeks to ensure that products are designed to efficiently and effectively support the needs of the human user.\  At the heart of the HCD process is an iterative cycle of development and testing in conjunction with end-users.\  This places the humans who play such a central role in emergency management at the centre of the design activity.\  The BNHCRC project: team monitoring, decision making and organisational learning has used the human centred design approach to develop a number of tools that support human decision making and team management during emergencies.\  This report introduces the human centred design process and shows how it was used to develop the decision making and team management tools.

}, keywords = {Decision making, education, Emergency management, human centred design, team management}, issn = {532}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-7188, title = {Utilisation funding: South Australia stretch thinking project}, number = {597}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Decision making, team monitoring and organisational learning{\textquotedblright} is focused on improving decision-making for response agencies/operations.

This utilisation project involved the research team from the University of Tasmania conducting two training workshops for a multi-jurisdictional group in South Australia and adapting aide-memoirs for decision making to support long-term recovery.

This Bushfire and Natural Hazards utilisation funding enhanced the South Australian Department of the Premier and Cabinet and University of Tasmania program, known as {\textquoteleft}Stretching for Recovery{\textquoteright}, which involved broadening research for decision-making for long-term recovery and offering the opportunity to run an additional workshop for South Australia.

}, keywords = {south australia, stretch thinking, utilisation fundings}, issn = {597}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin} } @article {bnh-7214, title = {The value of research from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, number = {601}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC {\textendash} the CRC) retained us to develop a transparent, reproducible estimate of the total value to Australia of its research: to answer the question, what is the return to Australia of its investment in the BNHCRC?

Cooperative Research Centres, like the BNHCRC, represent the main formal vehicle for explicitly enhancing research and industry collaboration in Australia.\  With government sponsorship, researchers and industry work closely to produce socially and commercially desirable outcomes.\ 

Funders of all research, including that of bushfire and emergency management, increasingly want to ensure that their investments generate value for the emergency management sector and contribute to risk reduction.\  Research value can take a number of forms, from a readily assessed improvement in performance due to a new widget or process, to increases in capacity and risk management across the emergency sector, and direct and indirect benefits to the whole of society and economy.\ \ 

The ARC (Australian Research Council) has a broad definition of research impact:

{\textquotedblleft}Research impact is the contribution that research makes to the economy, society, environment or culture, beyond the contribution to academic research.{\textquotedblright}\ 

The definition suggested by the European Commission is broader still and includes indirect impacts and effects, on for example, innovation culture, capacity building, and increasing the stock of useful knowledge.\  We use the ARC{\textquoteright}s definition broadened slightly to encompass the specifics set out in the European definition as they help to capture the CRC{\textquoteright}s contribution. This is achieved through four pathways to value, set out in the following section.

}, keywords = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, research, Value}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-7-1}, issn = {601}, author = {John Handmer and Adriana Keating and Ken Strahan} } @article {bnh-6868, title = {Vulnerability assessment of bridges subjected to extreme cyclonic events}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

Over the past few years, Queensland in Australia has suffered from a number of severe tropical cyclones, the most recent one being Marcia, which took place in 2015. Damage bill of Cyclone Marcia exceeded $50 million which included the cost of repairing a number of damaged road structures. Failure of road structures such as bridges isolates communities from accessing essential services and commodities. This necessitated a methodical approach to evaluate the failure of bridges to improve their resilience and provide base knowledge for developing emergency maintenance response. Although there are several methods available to evaluate the vulnerability of bridges, fault tree analysis (FTA) was selected in this study by considering its positive attributes over the other methods. FTA was used to estimate the probabilities of failure of main components (superstructure and substructure) and elements of timber and concrete bridges. Secondary data (level 1 and level 2 bridge inspection reports from Transport Main Roads in Rockhampton) before and after the Cyclone Marcia were used in conjunction with expert advice to construct fault trees for both timber and concrete bridges. Potential failure mechanisms were observed, and the degree of susceptibility of main components of timber and concrete bridges to cyclonic events was evaluated. This research was based on selected bridges under specific cyclone in one region, which is a limitation of the study. Few other case study bridges subjected to cyclonic events can be used to strengthen the understanding of the complete dynamics of the bridge failure under these extreme events.

}, keywords = {bridge failure, cyclone, fault tree analysis, preventative maintenance, Vulnerability}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03931-y}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-020-03931-y$\#$citeas}, author = {Thilini Pathiranage and Weena Lokuge} } @article {bnh-6723, title = {Why don{\textquoteright}t bushfire warnings work as intended? Responses to official warnings during bushfires in New South Wales, Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {45}, year = {2020}, abstract = {

Australian fire services provide two broad types of warning to people in bushfire (or wildfire) risk areas. Fire Danger Ratings communicate the possible consequences of a bushfire due to its rate of spread, intensity and difficulty of suppression. Warnings are also issued to alert people to impending bushfires and advise them how to respond. This paper examines how people threatened and affected by bushfires in New South Wales, Australia, in 2017 understood, interpreted and acted upon warning messages they received. The research involved 113 semi-structured interviews and an online survey of 549 households. Results indicate that while most people found warnings easy to understand and useful, many did not respond in ways intended by fire services. Many waited until they were threatened before they evacuated, while others stayed to defend houses and property, assist or rescue other people, and protect pets and animals. Notably, the research highlights the tendency for people to seek confirmation of the bushfire threat before taking protective action, most commonly to avoid unnecessary evacuation and its associated costs. Furthermore, the research identifies three key messages in bushfire warnings that are not personally meaningful for many people because they do not align with how they are likely to respond to a bushfire. These include: (1) people should leave bushfire risk areas on days of Catastrophic fire danger, before there is a fire; (2) houses are not defendable under Catastrophic conditions; and (3) people should {\textquoteleft}leave early{\textquoteright}. The paper offers suggestions on how fire authorities can provide better information to help people to make more effective decisions by acknowledging and working within the context in which warnings are understood, interpreted and acted upon.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, defence, Evacuation, information, preparation, Warnings, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101476}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919304625?dgcid=author}, author = {J Whittaker and Mel Taylor and Christopher Bearman} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8090, title = {Wildfire suppression {\textendash} an international analysis of operations, strategy and firefighter safety}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {430}, school = {Edith Cowan University}, abstract = {

Wildfire suppression remains an inherently dangerous yet increasingly frequent task for fire services throughout Australia and the world. Each year firefighters from career and volunteer agencies respond to wildfires that impact the urban interface. When such an event occurs during a period of intense fire behaviour the conditions are often incompatible with life for persons either caught in the open or those seeking refuge in a vehicle. In order to improve firefighter safety and operational effectiveness at the rural urban interface (RUI) during landscape scale wildfires, this dissertation serves to examine critical components of wildfire response, most notably wildfire suppression strategies and tactics applied during a landscape scale wildfire event and the procedures and protective systems utilised in the event of firefighter entrapment and burnover.

The theme of the research is firefighter safety and suppression effectiveness during mega-wildfire response at the rural urban interface (RUI), also known as the wildland urban interface (WUI). Mega-wildfires are those landscape wildfires that overwhelm firefighting resources, typically generate their own localized weather systems, and require campaign style efforts lasting extended durations. Wildfire events including Margaret River (2011), and Yarloop (2016) in Western Australia, the devastating Californian and Greece wildfires (2018) and the unprecedented wildfires throughout eastern Australia in late 2019 / early 2020 meet this category. The RUI is the land where towns and cities exist alongside forest and other vegetation that supports the development of an established headfire with a quasi-steady rate of spread (RoS) across the landscape. In such instances, firefighters are called on to protect vulnerable communities and critical infrastructure from the ember storms, radiant heat and flames that accompany the head fire. In doing so, firefighters face great personal peril. If the incorrect suppression tactics or strategies are applied, or if wildfire behaviour suddenly changes, firefighter entrapment and burnover resulting in significant injury or fatality remains an all too common consequence.

The studies not only quantify the severity of the conditions firefighters encounter when attempting to protect life, property and the environment at the RUI, but also find traditional wildfire suppression strategies and tactics at the RUI need to be reexamined. Whilst the field of wildfire engineering is in its infancy, the studies suggest its development and adoption into wildfire suppression operations has the potential to improve both operational effectiveness and firefighter safety.

}, keywords = {analysis, firefighter, international, operations, safety, strategy, suppression, Wildfire}, url = {https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/2349/}, author = {Greg Penney} } @conference {bnh-6505, title = {Are we future ready? It depends on who you ask }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The key problem faced in preparing for future disasters is a problem of imagination. It is a problem embedded in the stories we tell about what we imagine might happen. These stories tend to focus on a {\textquoteleft}bell curve{\textquoteright} distribution of disaster events, combining our own lived experience with the stories of others. This combination of personal experiences and the stories of others forms the basis of our perception of risk and vulnerability. This is a dynamic and ongoing process. The story is never finished, nor is it complete, as we selectively incorporate or reject information depending on its source, content and compatibility with the existing narrative.

The existing narrative for natural hazard management incorporates perceptions of probability; generally, {\textquoteleft}disaster consequences will tend to hover close to the mean and every now and then we will be tested{\textquoteright}. As the volume of hazards grows the narrative is more deeply imbued with concepts of coping and {\textquoteleft}lessons learned{\textquoteright}. If certain narratives are allowed to flourish uncontested within an organisation an ironic consequence can be a failure of imagination and coping. A failure to be future ready.

This paper is a discussion about the extent to which we{\textquoteright}re future ready using the Johari window as a heuristic and reflecting on a case study from Indonesia.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, future disasters, risk management, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Sutton, S and Paton, Douglas and Burgelt , Petra T. and Ella Meilianda and Saut Sagala} } @article {bnh-7792, title = {Building emergency management capacity in remote north Australian communities {\textendash} status report, November 2019}, number = {639}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This status report addresses the following activities:

Current research activities

1. Developing effective EM partnerships

1.1 Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku

i. Reinstating traditional governance authority

ii. Recent progress at Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku

1.2 Ramingining

i. Recent progress at Ramingining

ii. Lessons learnt

2. Scenario planning for remote community risk management\ 

Proposed workshop activity

1. Developing a BNHCRC utilisation project focused on building effective EM partnerships with remote communities

1.1 Background

1.2 Utilisation proposal

i. Phase 1

ii. Phase 2

1.3 Participants

1.4 Expected benefits\ 

}, keywords = {Capability, communities, emegency management, northern Australia, remote}, issn = {639}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Glenn James and Sithole, B and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @conference {bnh-6511, title = {A case study of South Australia{\textquoteright}s severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

On September 28, 2016 one of the most significant thunderstorm outbreaks recorded in South Australia impacted central and eastern parts of the state. Multiple supercell thunderstorms were embedded in a Quasi-Linear Convective System aligned with a strong cold front that was associated with an intense low-pressure system. The storms produced at least seven tornadoes, destructive wind gusts, large hail and intense rainfall. Transmission lines were brought down in four different locations, which contributed to a state-wide power outage.

Accurate prediction and understanding of tornadoes and other hazards associated with severe thunderstorms is very important, for timely preparation and announcement of warnings. By conducting high-resolution simulations, this study aims to offer a better understanding of the meteorology of the South Australian thunderstorm and tornado outbreak. It also contributes to improving knowledge of how to best predict similar severe weather events, which in turn enables better risk management and preparedness for such events. Updraft
helicity, a severe storm surrogate that indicates the potential for updraft rotation in simulated storms, is used to investigate the ability of the model to predict supercell and tornado likelihood.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {modelling, risk management, Severe Weather, thunderstorm, tornado}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Dragana Zovko-Rajak and KJ Tory and Jeffrey Kepert} } @conference {bnh-6525, title = {Climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Climate change is recurrently cited as the most important perceived challenge of this century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014; Watts et al. 2017). Yet, the perceptions of the risk of climate change, its societal impacts, ramifications and particularly the solutions needed to address it require further investigation.

This study profiles regional emergency and disaster management professional{\textquoteright}s perceptions of climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania. We aimed to examine what evidence exists to support decision making and profile the nature, type and potential human impact of climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Decision making, disaster, Emergency management}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Cuthbertson, Joseph} } @conference {bnh-6530, title = {Climate Ready Communities: empowering communities to spread climate preparedness messaging and take local action}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has articulated an urgent need to address climate change in its recent report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5{\textdegree}C. Even the most optimistic projections indicate the inevitability of some increase in global temperatures, even if emissions were to be significantly reduced today. With the most vulnerable likely to be the hardest hit by changing weather patterns driving natural hazards of increased severity and frequency, it is essential that communities have access to resources and support to adapt.\ 

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, communities, community support, Global warming, local action, Preparedness, resources}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Nick Banks and Dani Austin} } @conference {bnh-6510, title = {Detecting active fires from space using Himawari-8: a report from the regional New South Wales trial }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Continuous monitoring fires over Australia using Himawari-8 geostationary satellite data (available every 10 minutes) has the potential to change lives.

Active-fire hotspots are routinely available from polar-orbiting satellites such as MODIS and VIIRS (Giglio et al. 2003; Giglio et al. 2016; Schroder et al. 2014) over Australia. Active-fire hotspots from those systems are only available a few times a day, with the specific times dictates by the satellite orbits themselves. With satellite orbits not necessarily concurring with time of maximum fire activity. In late 2015 though, the Japanese Meteorological Agency launched the Himawari-8 geostationary satellite, with full-disk observations (including Australia) available every 10 minutes (Bessho et al. 2016). These frequent observations have the potential to support continuous real-time satellite monitoring of active fires over Australia.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {fire management, fires, monitoring, risk management, Satellite}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Chermelle Engel and Stuart Matthews and Simon Jones and Karin Reinke} } @article {bnh-7301, title = {Developing effective management partnerships in remote communities in northern Australia {\textendash} post cyclone response in Ramingining and Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku: annual report 2018-2019}, number = {608}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Getting smart and planning what to do during hazards is something the community want to start doing for themselves. Stories about the response to cyclone Lam testify to some of the challenges and issues that the community members feel could be addressed if the community is directly involved in planning for safety. There is much interest among the communities to be involved which is not yet harnessed to the formal process. Within this there is a need to redefine the way the government sees community and underline the importance of recognizing the multiple layering of groups and interests in communities such as Ramingining and Galinwin{\textquoteright}ku.

Planning capacity exists in remote communities and there is abundant evidence on display on how complex the planning arrangements are. These plans draw on complex and often detailed ecological knowledge that exists among the relevant groups and individuals who have so far been left out of the planning process. Our big question in the project is how do we make this existing skills and knowledge visible and useful in the current government facilitated hazard response frameworks.

Equally, local authority and decision-making structures exist in contemporary/customary life. These are evident in ceremony of course but {\textquoteleft}required{\textquoteright} and expected by Yolngu/bininj to guide and support all facets of life. Significant erosion of cultural power and authority are at the heart of many community issues and the extant capacity to re-engage this authority is both complex (in its interactions with other entrenched layers of governance) and almost invisible to the outside observer (including most government agents).

To achieve the kind of collaboration required for the community to be meaningfully involved, government must accommodate calls to open up spaces for engagement. A community driven plan developed with the community provides a framework that highlights those areas of action where there is room for possible for collaboration and areas where there are opportunities for complementarity. A plan that brings together the government and the community is not yet feasible in the way communities are developing it, how do we turn current models on their heads and get government to see and try the {\textquoteleft}community way{\textquoteright}? These complementary projects at Ramingining and Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku are taking a {\textquoteleft}bottom up{\textquoteright} approach to establishing new grounds for more effective engagement.

}, keywords = {management, northern Australia, partnerships, post cyclone, remote communities, response}, issn = {608}, author = {Sithole, B and Glenn James} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6825, title = {Development of an interface using penalisation method for improving computational performance of bushfire simulation tools}, volume = {Master of Engineering}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, pages = {350}, school = {Victoria University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Wind is the dominant environmental factor affecting wildland fire intensity and spread. Previously, fire analysts and managers have relied on local measurements and site-specific forecasts to determine how winds influence fire. The advancements in computer hardware, increased availability of electronic topographical and experimental data, and advances in numerical methods for computing winds, have led to the development of new tools capable of simulating wind flow. Several numerical models have been developed for fire prediction and forecasting. Modelling wind in physics-based models like Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) has been shown to produce promising results, but at an inordinate cost. Because of the high computational expense, physics-based models are not suitable for operational use. Little research has been conducted to improve the computational speed of these models. The current study intends to decrease the computational cost of physics-based fire simulations and improve physics-based models by including more complicated driving winds.\ 

Physics-based wildfire simulations are driven by inlet boundary conditions which model the atmospheric boundary layer. Various inlet conditions, such as the 1/7-powerlaw or the log law models with artificial turbulence (e.g. the synthetic eddy method, [SEM]) can be used as an inlet to generate a statistically steady wind field for a fire simulation. The power-law inlet is the default inlet condition used in FDS where the wind develops turbulence as it sweeps through the domain, and is often used with wall-of-wind\ type methods. The log-law inlet generates a log wind profile similar to Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL). Development of techniques for imposing inlet conditions and initial conditions for flow simulations have been topics of interest for the past few decades. CUrrent inlet and initial conditions requires time in a scale order of 100s of CPU hours, for generating an appropriate condition to start a fire simulation, hence resulting in increased computational expense. A novel nesting method has been implemented, which involves two regions: penalisation and blending, named as the PenaBlending method. The initial conditions of the fire simulations in FDS are set to the initial condition prescribed by an external model or simulation. This is achieved by a one-way coupling method. External wind data, for which u,v,w can vary in space and time, can be obtained. The precursor data can be generated either from any reduced wind model such as Windninha, which gives terrain\ modified wind data, or by using analytical methods such as generating logarithmic windfield using Matlab.\ These external data can be introduced into the FDS domain\ through a penalization region at the inlet/outlet. A blending region has also been\ implemented near the specified inlet/outlet which allows a smooth mixing of a precursor\ wind field to that in the simulation domain. This new inlet condition allows complicated\ terrain modified temporally and spatially varying wind fields, obtained from precursor\ simulations or any other models, to be implemented relatively easily in the FDS domain. To test the implementation of this method, a flat terrain is considered in the current study.\ However, this method could also be used for complicated terrain structures, as a part of\ future studies. The PenaBlending method provides appropriate flow conditions with reduced\ computational effort (up to  80\%), to start a fire simulation, and, hence, reduces\ the computational expense of physics-based models.

The results obtained using the PenaBlending method have been compared with that obtained using the existing inlet conditions of FDS, like the SEM method, wall-of-wind method and mean-forcing methods, using the 1/7 power-law or log-law inlets. To test these three methods, a set of fire simulations have been conducted and tested against the PenaBlending method. It was found that the results of the PenaBlending methods agree well with that of existing methods, with small variations for both the wind and fire cases.\ 

FDS 6.6.0 (the version used in this study) requires a very fine grid to obtain grid convergence. This is not feasible in the case of a large-scale simulation because of very high computation cost. FDS 6.2.0, with a reaction-rate-limiter combustion model, needs less fine grids to obtain grid convergence. Therefore, this combustion model is re-introduced into FDS 6.6.0, providing an option\ \ of choosing between two different combustion models,\ as a part of this study. For all the simulations, the reaction-rate-limiter combustion\ model has been used. The simulations are carried out in a neutral-atmospheric stability\ condition. However, the PenaBlending method can apply any general driving wind, and\ the effect of atmospheric stability, could be included, as part of future studies. The PenaBlending\ method could be extended in conjunction with Monin-Obukhov Similarity\ Theory (introduced in FDS 6.6.0) to model fire in various atmospheric stability conditions.

}, keywords = {computational fluid dynamics, Fire, fire dynamics simulator, Physics-based modelling, Wildfire, wind}, url = {http://vuir.vu.edu.au/40023/}, author = {Sesa Singha Roy} } @conference {bnh-6529, title = {Emergency volunteer retention: can a culture of inclusiveness help?}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Given increasingly diversified communities and the importance of attracting and retaining all volunteers irrespective of their demographic background, it is important to increase the representativeness of volunteers by promoting diversity. We surveyed emergency services volunteers from Western Australia to examine (a) whether and why culture of inclusiveness plays an important role for volunteer retention and (b) whether and why female volunteers have different perceptions of inclusivity culture in their units. Our findings demonstrated that climate for inclusion played a vital role for volunteer retention because in such climates they felt connected and related to others, and felt freedom to express themselves professionally. Despite the importance of climate for inclusion, male and female volunteers viewed this climate differently and experienced different outcomes. Female volunteers perceived marginally lower levels of climate of inclusion than men. As hypothesised, female volunteers felt more connected to their teammates in inclusive climates integrative of differences. Unexpectedly, female volunteers{\textquoteright} relatedness needs were less likely to be fulfilled in inclusive climates where they were included into decision-making.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {communities, Emergency, volunteers. diversity and inclusion}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Patrick Dunlop and Djurre Holtrop and Darja Kragt and Hawa Farid} } @article {bnh-6686, title = {Evaluation of pre-intervention data: divergent thinking and brain plasticity}, number = {546}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}new normal{\textquoteright} includes larger, more complex incidents. This suggests that
leaders will need to think outside the box and use of higher cognitive skills such
as creativity that includes divergent thinking, to respond and recover from these
incidents. Processes in creativity include thinking skills that are conducive to
taking new perspectives on problems, pivoting among different ideas, thinking
broadly, and making unusual associations.

This document identifies the empirical results from a series of workshops
conducted with end-users to identify if a method for developing creative skills
and specifically divergent thinking, led to teams being more creative in the
development of options analyses.

Results indicate that teams scored significantly higher on a creativity scale after
being taught the methods to enhance their creativity.

The improvement can be traced to improvements in the criteria of fluency (the
number of options) and elaboration (embellishment of the information
provided). Teams did not demonstrate evidence of the other two criteria for
creativity (flexibility in the use of the intelligence provided and originality).
Consideration of how to build flexibility and originality into the existing method
will drive the next iteration, which will be translated into research utilisation
products over the remaining time of the project.

}, keywords = {brain plasticity, data evaluation, divergent thinking}, issn = {546}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin} } @conference {bnh-6504, title = {Experiences with the global impacts of climate change}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Textbox Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency managers are in the grips of climate change. The climate is changing in Canberra, where I work. In turn that is affecting the spectrum of incidents that we as emergency managers are responding to. This involves the community through the risks to the community (that we seek to mitigate).

I seek to explore this through my direct experiences on the job: as an emergency manager, as a technical expert and as a research scientist. Our climate in Canberra has changed, and has changed dramatically, starting with the 1997 El Ni{\~n}o event when our climate started following what is termed the {\textquotedblleft}Hockey Stick Curve{\textquotedblright} (Mann et al, 1999). A typical summer now involves: extreme heat, extreme atmospheric moisture, extreme storms and extreme raised dust. By using the hockey stick concept it is clear that this is not the {\textquotedblleft}New Norm{\textquotedblright}, rather that the situation may deteriorate quickly.

Looking more widely, across the nation, we have seen challenging wildfire outbreaks in Queensland, Tasmania (twice) and other areas. My work as a fire behaviour analyst (FBAN) makes it clear that our prior expectations are losing their validity. What do we replace them with? Looking globally, I have deployed to Canada as an FBAN and I am collaborating as part of a global atmospheric research project looking at the growing impact of fire thunderstorms (pyroCbs). This required monitoring of smoke impact on the Greenland Ice Cap, and its potential impacts. I was in the IMT for two of the world{\textquoteright}s most significant pyroCb events. We are seeing this new wildfire problem occur in new regions, starting with Australia in 2001, but now expanding rapidly every year.

Staggering changes, devastating impacts and massive challenges - are we adapting correctly? I offer some take-home messages to help, covering observing, sharing, preparing and adapting.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, Fire behaviour, fire impacts, fire management, global impact, Wildfire}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Rick McRae} } @conference {bnh-6506, title = {Flood vulnerability functions: detailed vs generalised approach }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Flood vulnerability functions for buildings (often called stage-damage functions) relate flood damage to the depth of inundation in the building. These functions are generally used in assessing flood risk and in evaluating cost-effective mitigation strategies for flood risk management. Flood vulnerability models are usually developed for a certain location by following empirical, analytical or heuristic procedures. They can be developed for a representative building type (detailed approach) or representing a mix of building types (generalised approach).

Geoscience Australia (GA) has developed a suite of flood vulnerability functions for a range of building types (detailed approach) that covers residential, commercial, industrial and community building land use types. These functions are best used in detailed micro level studies and are applicable to the highest resolution of building exposure information with flood vulnerability directly attributed to individual buildings.

This paper describes research with the National Flood Risk Advisory Group (NFRAG), the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience (AIDR), state and local governments and industry to translate detailed vulnerability information into practical guidance for flood risk managers undertaking studies under the floodplainspecific management process as outlined in the AIDR Handbook, Managing the Floodplain: A Guide to Best Practice in Flood Risk Management.

This research derives generalised vulnerability functions for a mix of building and land use types. The generalised curves can be utilised at meso or macro level study and are intended to be applied at a resolution of built environment information readily available to floodplain managers.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {emergency management., Floods, land use, risk management, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Maqsood, T and Dale, K and Mark Edwards and Krishna Nadimpalli} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6661, title = {Foresight for risk {\textendash} using scenarios for strategic risk assessment and management of emergent disaster risk}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, school = {University of Adelaide}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

Disaster impacts around the world are increasing with 2011 and 2017 the largest on record in terms of total losses from disasters in recorded history (USD 444billion and USD 341billion, respectively). The reasons for the increase in losses are multiple. Climate change is increasing the likelihood and intensity of several natural hazard types, and as the world{\textquoteright}s population and economy grow, and humans increasingly develop in areas exposed to natural hazard (e.g. along rivers, and coastal areas), the values exposed are also rapidly increasing. These multiple factors contribute to the complex nature of disaster risk, which is considered to be the combination of natural hazard intensity and extent, exposure (assets, people, other values), and vulnerabilities of the exposed values to the characteristics of the hazards. This can be considered the risk triangle {\textendash} hazard, exposure and vulnerability {\textendash} and each of these factors change into the future impacted by a range of drivers; population and economic change, technology, urbanisation rates, political actions etc.

To reduce the impacts of disasters, risk management and reduction activities are designed and implemented, and are typically underpinned by risk assessments. Risk assessments use qualitative and/or quantitative approaches to attempt to characterise the likelihood and impact of disaster types for a region or organisation. Currently, risk assessments do not capture future changes across all dimensions of risk in a manner that provides insight into the strategic threats and opportunities of emergent disaster risks. Therefore, there is a need for approaches to consider realistic degrees of complexity within the disaster risk system and account for the uncertainty in emergent risk. By capturing this within disaster risk assessments, treatment options can be developed and tested that strategically manage these risks over time.

This research has developed these approaches and provides three key contributions through the use of foresight, primarily scenarios within disaster risk assessment processes, to support effective policy and investment decision making to reduce future impacts. The thesis is organised around three publications, all contributing to the development of a generic framework which integrates foresight into disaster risk management and specific approaches to develop and use scenarios for strategic risk assessment and management of emergent disaster risk. The first paper (Chapter 2) proposes and demonstrates this generic framework for the incorporation of the principles of foresight into risk assessment and management processes. The second paper (Chapter 3) focuses on the design of scenarios to support policy making for disaster risk reduction through several improvements to the methodological approach for constructing relevant and challenging scenarios using an {\textquotedblleft}outcomes of interest{\textquotedblright} framing. The third paper (Chapter 4) outlines and applies an approach for the use of exploratory scenarios within quantitative disaster risk assessment through the development of alternative pathways of disaster risk using scenarios and integrated risk models.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk management, Foresight, modelling, Risk assessment, Scenarios}, url = {https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/122575}, author = {Graeme Riddell} } @conference {bnh-6527, title = {Fuels3D: barking up the wrong tree and beyond}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Improvement of the understanding of how fuel characteristics correlate with fire behaviour and severity is critical to the ongoing handling of risk and recovery in fire-prone environments. Current standards and protocols for describing fuel hazard (for example, {\textquoteleft}Overall Fuel Hazard Assessment Guide{\textquoteright}, Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment) and post-burn severity (for example, {\textquoteleft}Fire Severity Assessment Guide{\textquoteright}, Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment) were written for collection of information in the field. The data collected are largely subjective descriptions of the landscape. The ability of information from these assessment techniques to be adapted to modern risk assessment tools such as fire behavior models, or for the calibration and validation of datasets, is limited. Quantitative data-rich methods of measuring and assessing fuel load and structure are the missing link between the knowledge of land management personnel in the field, and the model drivers and decision makers at organizational level.

Handheld devices with high quality sensors, in the form of offthe-shelf cameras, are increasingly ubiquitous, as is the availability of 3D point cloud data collected from active sensing instruments on terrestrial and aerial platforms. Rapid and comprehensive capture of information by these devices, coupled with the use of computer vision techniques, allows for the 3D description of the surrounding environment to be exploited to provide robust measurement of metrics that can be built into existing fuel hazard assessment frameworks. Providing key metrics as data products rather than a single product enables flexibility across jurisdictions and ecosystem types, and capacity to adapt as end-user requirements change.

The Fuels3D project has created a suite of tools and methods for image capture in the field during fuel hazard assessments. 3D point clouds are generated using computer vision and photogrammetry techniques. From these 3D point clouds, scale is added, and decision rules are programmed to calculate quantifiable surface / near-surface metrics that replicate those
used in current fuel hazard visual assessment guides. Case studies are highlighted here.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {data collection, Fire behaviour, fuel hazard, risk management, technology}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Karin Reinke and Luke Wallace and Samuel Hillman and Bryan Hally and Simon Jones} } @conference {bnh-6513, title = {Future risk framework: understanding tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk and what we can do to reduce it}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Unless appropriate mitigation action is taken, disaster risk is likely to increase into the future due to factors such as climate change, population growth, economic development and an ageing population. Consequently, there is a pressing need to think about plausible future risks and how to best mitigate them. This paper presents the future risk framework, which provides a structured, stepwise approach for relevant agencies to explore future risk and what it means for their organisation. The framework consists of four main steps, progressively increasing in levels of insight into future risk, as well as increasing the level of quantification of risk. A key feature of the framework is the incorporation of sense-making and its implementation consists of a combination of participatory approaches and the use of data, information, modelling and analysis. Application of the framework is illustrated for the case study of Greater Adelaide, South Australia, highlighting the approaches used and the level of insight into future risk obtained at each of the four stages. A discussion on the challenges associated with using this insight to mitigate future risk is also provided, suggesting that a collaborative, multidisciplinary, multi-agency approach is needed to effectively mitigate all aspects of future risk, especially those associated with increases in exposure and vulnerability.\ 

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Disaster risk, mitigation, Planning, risk management, risk reduction}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and James Daniell and Sofanit Araya and Graeme Dandy and Jeffrey Newman} } @article {bnh-6577, title = {Integrating bushfire risk reduction and statutory mechanisms in South Australia}, number = {536}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfires pose significant threats to life and property in many parts of Australia. The frequency and intensity of bushfires are increasing over time in association with worsening weather conditions that support extreme fires (Dowdy, 2018) and ongoing settlement growth (Allen, 2018). High bushfire risks generally occur when fires interact with human settlements, where housing and other structures are near flammable vegetation and associated impacts such as ember attack.

This report is an output of the wider project {\textquotedblleft}Integrating Urban Planning with Disaster Risk Reduction{\textquotedblright} funded by the Bushfire Natural Hazard Cooperative Research Centre. It is part of a critical review of the integration of emergency management and urban planning in South Australia focusing on the detail of bushfire treatment mechanisms proposed in the State Planning Reform Document Draft Planning and Design Code {\textendash} Phase 2 Rural Areas (DPTI, 2019b) released in October 2019 by the Department of Transport, Planning and Infrastructure, and State Planning Commission. In parallel, the review also considered other relevant regulations and codes such as AS 3959-2018 Building in Bushfire Prone Areas (Standards Australia - Committee FP-020, 2019) and Ministerial Building Standard MBS008 Designated Bushfire Prone Areas {\textendash} Draft October 2019 (DPTI, 2019a). The present report provides a basis for later work in subsequent stages that develops new approaches and improvements in collaboration with practitioners.

The review begins by setting out the conceptual and theoretical basis of integration and moves to presenting a general description of bushfires and the main factors that contribute to bushfire risks in the built environment. Then, it sets out the main elements of investigation relating to the integration of bushfire risk reduction in the built environment, summarising the adopted research approach and the role of this report in the wider research project. Then the report moves to critically analysing the outcomes of applying these integration principles to bushfire risks as they are dealt with by the draft Code. Findings point to elements of the Code that could be improved to reduce risks across the areas of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, mechanisms, risk reduction}, issn = {536}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @conference {bnh-6524, title = {Intelligent warnings: a twenty-first century approach to encouraging protective action in emergencies}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Victorian approach to the delivery of public information and warnings is robust and leads the country in many respects. Despite this, when at-risk individuals do receive warnings, existing research clearly highlights they are unlikely to immediately act, and instead, will seek out further information and take time to process the information to determine whether any action is required. This verification process may include talking with family, friends, neighbours or colleagues, resulting in a delay before protective action is taken. To counteract this problem and provide communities with as much time as possible to take action, we need to minimise the likelihood of delays infiltrating our decision-making and warnings dissemination process. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation can help us to achieve this.

To investigate this further, a desktop review of existing literature was undertaken, supported by informal discussions and semi-structured interviews with a diverse range of academics, emergency managers and other experts across Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and the United States. The discussions and interviews highlighted exciting opportunities to enhance our current approach through the use of AI and automation, which could be particularly helpful in enhancing the effectiveness of warnings for rapid impact emergencies, such as flash flooding and severe thunderstorms. During these types of emergencies, where community consequences are often experienced very rapidly after initial onset of the event, AI and automation can support the tailoring of language and content in warning products according to affected communities and likely consequences, minimise warning issuance delay and maximise the effectiveness of decision-making.

The investigation found these technologies are not a replacement for human decision making, however, if leveraged effectively they will enable us to better understand risk in realtime and reduce the considerable time taken to manually process intelligence and apply our pre-determined triggers and business rules. For the Victorian emergency management sector, these results suggest there is a need to prioritise investment in innovative new approaches to support the dissemination of potentially life-saving public information and warnings, whilst also supporting researchers to further understand human behaviour and decision-making upon receipt of a warning. In summary, this investigation has identified opportunities to better support communities to take protective action in a timely manner, to ensure we achieve our shared vision of safer and more resilient communities.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, protective action, risk management, technology, warning}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Riley, Jacob} } @conference {bnh-6532, title = {JASMIN: a high-resolution soil moisture analysis system for fire prediction}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Soil moisture is found to be a key factor that influences fuel moisture content. Consequently, operational forest fire prediction systems typically include soil moisture as one of the inputs for fire behaviour calculations. The soil moisture input to these fire prediction models is usually provided in the form of moisture deficit. There is evidence that the current operational methods used in Australia for fire prediction perform poorly in estimating soil moisture status. A research project was initiated in partnership with the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to develop an advanced, state-of-the-art soil moisture analysis for Australia. Consequently, a prototype, high-resolution, land surface modelling-based soil moisture analysis called JULES based Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN) has been developed. JASMIN can provide hourly moisture estimates for four soil layers, at a spatial resolution of 5 km.

The present paper will discuss the evaluation of JASMIN carried out against observations from ground-based networks. Among the results, the mean Pearson{\textquoteright}s correlation for surface soil moisture across three in-situ networks is found to be between 0.78 and 0.85. We also focus on the research carried out to downscale the JASMIN product from 5 km to 1 km spatial resolution. The downscaling research is motivated by the desirable impact a higher resolution soil moisture product can provide for fire prediction, considering the high spatial variability in soil moisture and fuel moisture. We discuss the application of three downscaling algorithms: two regressionbased methods and one with a theoretical basis. The three methods applied in the present study are based on the information derived from characterizing a two-dimensional surface temperature/vegetation index scatterplot domain obtained from thermal and optical remote sensing observations. We present an overview of the application of each method, along with an evaluation against ground-based soil moisture observations. Evaluation results indicate that the regression methods, in general, fail to capture the observed temporal variability. The theoretically based method, on the other hand, provides a temporal correlation of 0.81 and captures the skill of the parent JASMIN product.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {analysis system, fire prediction, Preparedness, risk management, Soil moisture}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @conference {bnh-6512, title = {The mitigation exercise: a long term mitigation planning process, with a coastal flooding case study in Adelaide}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) has had a cluster of research projects focused on economics and strategic decisions to improve mitigation since its commencement in 2013. A great deal of work has been done across the economic dimension looking at such issues as:
{\textbullet} risk ownership {\textbullet} non-market value of losses {\textbullet} tracking the impacts of disasters as they ripple through sectors of the economy {\textbullet} land use planning policies for reducing losses

These projects seek to present end-users, emergency management agencies and organisations, as well as recovery agency and other relevant departments such as planning and treasury, with more accurate insights into the potential losses from disasters.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {coastal, Emergency management, Floods, mitigation, risk management, strategies}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Ed Pikusa} } @conference {bnh-6531, title = {Probability and consequence of post-fire contamination events in a water supply catchment}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Large cities around the world source their drinking water from forested catchments, which deliver water that is treatable at minimal costs.

These forests are often prone to wildfire, which tend to increase surface runoff, destabilize soils and trigger increased sediment delivery into water supply systems. The consequences of wildfire for water supply are a significant concern, with the potential for extended periods of water supply disruption, increased water treatment cost, and a demand for catchment restoration and investment in expensive treatment infrastructure. Moreover, with climate change, the likelihood of wildfire is increasing in many forest ecosystems making water supply systems increasingly exposed to post-wildfire contamination.

There are numerous uses for models that predict water quality impacts. On an operational level, models that reveal spatial variation in the erosion susceptibility provide catchment managers with a means to prioritize risk mitigation through fuel reduction or post-wildfire response. In such cases, spatial mapping of erosion risk in a relative sense may be sufficient to provide effective tools for allocating resources and mitigating risk in the areas of the catchment that are most likely to be producing sediment. When developing strategic plans and making decisions about the future management of a water resource, the demands on predictive models increase. For instance, a water supply agency may want to determine if there is a case for upgrading water treatment capability or adjusting the water supply network to reduce the likelihood of water supply interruptions due to wildfires. In this setting, a detailed understanding of risk is required for cost-benefit analysis to inform decisions about such investments.

In this study we are motivated by the need amongst water supply managers to know {\textquoteleft}For how long is it likely that my reservoir will be offline due to contamination by post-wildfire erosion?{\textquoteright}. In addressing this question, we seek to provide the means for developing policy and investment strategies within environmental management frameworks that are underpinned by economics and risk. The specific objective of the study is to model how frequency and magnitude of erosion in headwaters translates to probability and duration of water contamination exceeding treatability thresholds at the water offtake. In this study we only consider sediment in our risk model because treatment facilities are often highly vulnerable to turbidity caused by suspended sediment.

Our paper outlines a parameter-reduction approach whereby empirical transfer functions are used to link a probabilistic model of sediment delivery from burned headwaters and a reservoir hydrodynamic model. With these transfer functions we produce a direct measure of risk (i.e. probability of consequence) and discuss practical questions around potential cost of the wildfire threat to water supply agencies and the capacity for catchment managers to mitigate such costs. Furthermore, we use the model to evaluate how different model components contribute to uncertainty in risk.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {erosion risk, fire impacts, fire severity, risk management, water supply}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Petter Nyman and Peter Yeates and Christoph Langhans and Philip J. Noske and Shane Haydon and Gary J. Sheridan} } @conference {bnh-6528, title = {Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: a pyrocumulonimbus prediction tool}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Pyrocumulonimbus (fire-induced thunderstorms, pyroCb) are associated with unpredictable changes in fire intensity, spread rates and direction, enhanced ember transport and lightning ignitions. Conventional thunderstorm threats such as downbursts, hail, lightning, and tornadoes may also be present. This paper introduces a pyroCb prediction tool and its application is demonstrated.

In favourable atmospheric conditions, suitably large and hot fires can produce pyroCb cloud in the form of deep convective columns with many similarities to conventional thunderstorms. They may be accompanied by strong inflow, dangerous downbursts and lightning strikes, which may enhance fire spread rates and fire intensity, cause sudden changes in fire spread direction, and the lightning may ignite additional fires. Dangerous pyroCb conditions are not well understood and can be very difficult to forecast.

In recent Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC (BNHCRC) research, a method for determining how favourable the atmospheric environment is for pyroCb development was developed. This method is combined with a plume-rise model (originally developed for pollutant dispersion prediction) to determine how much heat a fire must produce for pyroCb to develop in a given atmospheric environment. More specifically, this fire heat is the rate at which heat enters the fire plume (which has units of power), often termed the {\textquoteleft}power of the fire{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}firepower{\textquoteright}. A theoretical minimum firepower required for pyroCb to develop in a given atmospheric environment is calculated, termed the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold (PFT).

Forecast spatial plots of PFT are being trialled that provide an indication of how the favourability of the atmosphere for pyroCb development varies in space and time over typical weather forecast periods. It is anticipated that such plots will provide useful guidance for fire weather forecasters and fire agencies. Preliminary studies have shown that the PFT can vary substantially from day to day, and that days that favour pyroCb formation do not necessarily favour large-hot fires. A PFT-flag is also under development that identifies when both pyroCb and large-hot fires are favourable.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fire impacts, predictors, risk management, thunderstorms}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {KJ Tory} } @article {bnh-6666, title = {Rainwater ingress through residential sliding doors}, number = {545}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Damage investigations carried out following windstorms have shown significant damage caused by rainwater ingress (Boughton, Falck et al. 2017). A preliminary experimental study was carried out at the Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) that simulated wind driven rain on a residential window under strong wind conditions to observe rainwater ingress.

The external pressures on a building envelope vary in time and space on the surface of a building with windward walls experiencing positive pressures and all other surfaces (side and leeward walls and roof) subjected to negative pressures.

Internal pressure fluctuations in a nominally sealed building with a porous envelope, are generally much lower than the external pressure fluctuations. This internal pressure is usually a small suction pressure and hence the net (i.e. (external {\textendash} internal)) pressure across the windward wall is positive but negative across the other surfaces. This pressure differential along with wind driven rain can result in air-entrained water ingress into the building through windows that are closed due to gaps and weep-holes.

Preliminary tests were conducted at the CTS on a window attached to the wind driven rain simulator (WDRS) to assess rainwater leakage and potential measures that could reduce leakage.

}, keywords = {ingress, rainwater, sliding doors}, issn = {545}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and Leblais, Alex and David Henderson} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8094, title = {Reducing turnover in volunteer organisations: A leadership intervention based on self-determination theory}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, pages = {230}, school = {University of Wollongong}, address = {Wollongong}, abstract = {

Background:\ Increasingly high turnover rates in volunteer organisations have reached critical levels. Australian volunteer emergency service organisations are struggling to maintain adequate volunteer numbers to continue to deliver vital services to the community. The experience volunteers have with their leader is one of the strongest predictors of future volunteering. Despite industry, government and academics calling for increased focus on the training and development of volunteer leaders, there is currently limited theoretical and/or empirical guidance to support this endeavour. Little is known about what leadership approaches are effective or suitable with volunteers. Furthermore, it is unknown how volunteers{\textquoteright} experiences with their leader comes to influence their decision to stay with or leave the organisation. This thesis seeks to address these issues and formulates an evidence-based approach for improving leadership to help retain volunteer workers in Australian emergency service organisations.

Aim:\ The aim of this thesis is to examine the application of managerial autonomy support, an interpersonal style proposed by Self Determination Theory (SDT), as an approach to volunteer leadership, focusing on its potential to retain volunteers. In order to achieve this, the thesis addresses three objectives. First, the hypothesized conceptual model that delineates the relations between perceived managerial autonomy support, followers{\textquoteright} basic psychological need satisfaction, job satisfaction and turnover intention is tested in the volunteer organisations. The second objective is to determine whether, through an SDT-based leadership development intervention, leaders can change and/or develop their managerial orientation towards autonomy support. The final objective is to ascertain whether followers of these leaders perceive changes in their socio-contextual climate during the intervention period.

Method:\ A total sample of 363 participants was obtained for this study, comprising 167 leaders and 196 followers across four volunteer emergency service organisations in Australia. A quasi-experimental design tested the impact of an SDT-based leadership intervention on leaders (n=65) and their followers, compared to a control group of leaders (n=102) who received no training. Leaders{\textquoteright} self-reported managerial orientation was assessed at pre-test, post-test and one year after the intervention. Followers{\textquoteright} perceived managerial autonomy support from the leader, basic psychological needs satisfaction, job satisfaction and turnover intention were measured before and after their leader completed the intervention.

Results:\ A test of the hypothesised model via structural equation modelling indicate that emergency service workers{\textquoteright} perceptions of leaders{\textquoteright} managerial orientation influenced their job satisfaction and subsequent turnover intention through basic psychological needs satisfaction. Testing the impact of the SDT leadership development intervention, leaders in the experimental condition changed their interpersonal orientation towards autonomy support after completing the intervention and these reflected enduring changes that remained evident one year later. The intervention was most effective for leaders with relatively little prior experience leading volunteers, who showed greater propensity for developing their managerial orientation. Followers did not report any significant changes in the provision of autonomy support from their leader, basic psychological need satisfaction, job satisfaction or turnover intention over the nine weeks their leader was participating in the SDT-based leadership development intervention.

Contribution/Implications:\ This thesis provides one of the most in-depth empirical explorations to date, of the malleability of managerial autonomy support amongst organisational leaders. A contribution is made to the scholarly study of volunteer leadership more broadly, by offering a validated theoretical model of leadership and its influence on followers in the volunteer context. This research provides support for Self-Determination Theory in the volunteer organisations.

}, keywords = {Autonomy, autonomy support, basic psychological needs, competence, dyads, Emergency management, emergency services, field experiment, interpersonal skills, intervention, job satisfaction, leaders, leadership, leadership development, leadership intervention, leadership training, management, manager, managerial autonomy support, motivation, motivation theory, organisational development, organisations, relatedness, self-determination theory, structural equation modelling, supervisors, turnover intention, volunteer, volunteer leadership, volunteer retention, volunteer satisfaction, volunteer turnover, workplace}, url = {https://ro.uow.edu.au/theses1/692/}, author = {Vivien Forner} } @conference {bnh-6526, title = {Research activities within European Union research program for improving preparedness and resilience }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The International Emergency Management Society (TIEMS) is an international not for profit non-profit organisation, registered in Belgium, operating in its 26th year. TIEMS has chapters in 14 countries around the world and is in the process of establishing three new chapters this year. TIEMS activities comprise international conferences and workshops; research and development activities; and education, training and certification programs. TIEMS{\textquoteright}s slogan is: Preparedness saves lives.

Since 2006 TIEMS has participated as a consortium partner in European Union (EU) Research and Technology Development (RTD) programs to improve emergency preparedness. In addition, TIEMS experts have been members of user groups and advisory boards for a variety of other EU projects focusing on preparedness in Europe and worldwide. The present running EU program is Horizon 2020, which will have invested more than 100 billion Euro in RTD by the end of 2020, by EU RTD funding and private investment.

Four EU projects where TIEMS has been a consortium partner are: NARTUS (addressing important public safety communication issues); ASSET (improving trust between authorities and the public for pandemics and epidemics); HERACLES (protecting cultural heritage sites towards climate change), and DG ECHO Wildfire HUB (establishing an expert HUB in Europe to support wildfire fighting and to serve as a prototype for additional expert HUB{\textquoteright}s for other disasters in Europe). This paper summarizes the approaches developed by these programs to improve emergency preparedness.

TIEMS has also launched its own internal RTD project to develop a curriculum and on-line system for TIEMS International Certification {\textendash} TQC, which aims to become an internationally recognised certification of qualifications in international emergency management. This paper describes the structure and operational aspects of TQC.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Preparedness, protection, research program, resilience}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Drager, Kaare H and Robertson, Thomas} } @article {bnh-6656, title = {Retrofitting of a high-set Queensland house for wind loading}, number = {541}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report presents a preliminary study on the retrofitting/upgrading of roofing connections in an older Australian house type to improve its performance under wind loading. The house type selected is a rectangular plan high-set house with a low pitched gable roof. These houses are common in North Queensland and have been the subject of previous vulnerability studies by the Cyclone Testing Station. In previous studies this house type is also known as the {\textquoteleft}Group-4 House{\textquoteright}.

Vulnerability to wind loads of a population of these houses will be estimated using the Vulnerability and Wind Simulation (VAWS) software that is currently under development by the Cyclone Testing Station and Geoscience Australia. The changes to vulnerability functions for four connection upgrading scenarios are investigated. These preliminary analyses are used to inform initial cost benefit estimates for retrofitting older Australian houses.

}, keywords = {Housing, retrofitting, roofing, wind loading}, issn = {541}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and Martin Wehner and David Henderson} } @conference {bnh-6507, title = {Safety awareness of firefighters and their perception of fire risks in cladding fires }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Owing to the extensive use of polymers in building products, there is the urgent need to resolve the present fire risks of highly combustible cladding products. Apart from understanding the risks associated with cladding materials on buildings, it is also essential to evaluate the underlying risks of existing noncompliant materials on buildings for residents, owners, and the public, and for firefighters during the management of such fire events. In this article, a fire risk perception survey was constructed by a collaborative effort from Fire and Rescue New South Wales (FRNSW) and University of New South Wales. The survey can be subdivided into four major parts, i) demographics, ii) risk awareness and identification associated with cladding material, iii) the firefighter{\textquoteright}s own perceived risk associated with cladding fires and iv) risk mitigating behaviours. The majority of the questions are designed with five distinctive levels (i.e. ranging from rare to almost certain, or negligible to very high), and it will be distributed to firefighters from major states and rural fire agencies around Australia. The results will formulate a large and comprehensive database to increase our understanding of the firefighter{\textquoteright}s risk perception associated with combustible cladding materials.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {cladding, Emergency management, fire management, Fire risk, firefighter, risk awareness}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Timothy Bo Yuan Chen and Anthony Chun Yin Yuen and Qing Nian Chan and Guan Heng Yeoh} } @conference {bnh-6508, title = {School-based bushfire education: advancing teaching and learning for risk reduction and resilience}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In response to Recommendation 6 of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, the topic of bushfire has been incorporated into the Australian school curriculum. To support the implementation of this new curriculum content, fire agencies and education authorities have invested in a range of bushfire education programs and resources. Research in the field of school-based bushfire education has also intensified. Drawing on key findings from a suite of recent Australian studies, this paper outlines two key elements of effective school-based bushfire education that have the potential to advance teaching and learning for risk reduction and resilience. The first is a holistic risk framework that builds children{\textquoteright}s conceptual understanding of bushfire risk as a socioenvironmental phenomenon that derives from the interaction a physical hazard, the vulnerability of exposed people and assets, and the capacities people possess for disaster risk reduction. The second is a place-based pedagogy of bushfire risk, which grounds teaching and learning in the socioenvironmental contexts of children{\textquoteright}s lives.\  The paper concludes with some key recommendations for the continued development of good practice in this emergent field.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, education, resilience, risk management, risk reduction, schools, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Briony Towers} } @conference {bnh-6509, title = {Transforming through diversity and inclusion capability {\textendash} the pathway to achieving diversity benefits}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A key driver for building diversity and inclusion (D\&I) in emergency management organisations (EMOs) is to better represent diverse cohorts and ensure EMOs and their communities become more resilient to natural hazards. While EMOs have made some progress, dynamic transformation is required to effectively manage the rapidly changing contexts they and their communities face. Central to this is the need to expand the current service{\textendash}client relationship to become a more inclusive partnership model that builds resilience.
This paper reports on Phase 2 of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre project Diversity and inclusion: Building strength and capability, which aimed to develop a D\&I framework for the emergency management sector (EMS). Key aspects are: A process framework to guide organisations by linking strategic objectives to day-today decision making and integrates D\&I practice into organisational systems; Identification and development of specific strategic and people-based capabilities and skills; Management of risks arising as a result of D\&I shocks; and A process to measure and manage progress and assess the benefits derived from investment.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {diversity and inclusion, Natural hazards, organisations, resilience, risk management}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and Neelam Maharaj and Bruce Rasmussen} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6637, title = {Understanding the nature of abrupt decadal shifts in a changing climate}, year = {2019}, month = {11/2019}, school = {Victoria University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Planning for future climate risk tends to incorporate assumptions of smoothly accelerating\ climate change, around which unchanged variability constitutes the risk boundaries. This\ constitutes hypothesis H1 {\textendash} forced warming and natural variability evolve gradually and\ independently and the climate response is trend-like. Against this, there is evidence for H2 {\textendash}\ forced warming interacts with natural variability and the climate response includes abrupt\ steps. Earlier than expected breaching of risk bounds follows from H2.\ 

New automation tools, and post-detection tests find and characterise step-like regime onsets\ in temperatures.\ 

With these tools I show that step-like temperature regime shifts are detectable at all spatial\ scales at the land and ocean surface, and in the vertical temperature structure of the ocean.\ Based on published climate models shifts respond to warming by becoming more intense,\ wider-spread and more frequent. Regimes are regional, differ qualitatively between land and\ ocean, align with natural variability coincident with known bio-physical shifts. Two, circa 1976\ and 1996, align with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, involving rapid vertical ocean\ restructuring. One, 1968 in the Southern Hemisphere ocean does not, and 1986 in the\ Northern Hemisphere reflects atmospheric reorganisation.

H2 is strongly supported by the findings. Step-like warming dominates trends, increasingly so\ at finer scale.

}, keywords = {climate, Climate change, decadal shifts, risk management}, author = {Ricketts, J} } @conference {bnh-6523, title = {Utilisation of fire spread simulators to assess power network fire risk }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Western Power is a Western Australian State Government owned power network and energy corporation. In 2013, an external review commissioned by Western Power, recommended the development of an improved bushfire risk map for the network based on the consequences of potential network bushfire ignitions. In response to the review Western Power entered into a joint collaboration with the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) and Landgate to develop a multiple ignition point based bushfire risk analysis product suitable for use on the power network across the south west of Western Australia.

The objective of this project is to assist Western Power in prioritising their asset renewal and maintenance budget to ensure they{\textquoteright}ve addressed sites with the highest potential consequences, realising better public safety out-comes. The utilisation of the fire spread simulator system Aurora, to model the consequences of a bushfire ignition from power poles and wires has been investigated to provide this intelligence. Western Power maintains approximately 800,000 power poles within the south west of Western Australia. The development of an appropriate methodology to provide the required intelligence for the prioritisation of appropriate asset renewal and maintenance implementation programs in response to the risk of bushfire ignition, has proven to be challenging.

Aurora is a web-based bushfire spread prediction system that simulates the probable direction, intensity and rate of bushfire spread. The simulator considers ignition location, vegetation, time of last burn, fuel accumulation models, forecasted weather, drought factor, grassland curing and slope to calculate fire behaviour and spread. For this project, the simulator architecture uses 99.5th percentile Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) weather conditions for each of the 8 cardinal wind directions to produce 6 million fire spread
simulations. These simulations together with a building location dataset are used to estimate asset numbers that could potentially be impacted by a fire running for one hour, from each power pole. Using this methodology maintenance can be prioritised for individual power poles based on the potential impact of a bushfire caused by a fault.

The successful completion of this project will result in a welldeveloped methodology, Information Communication and Technology (ICT) system infrastructure and potential consequence datasets with the potential to utilise multiple activities and assets as potential ignition sources, therefore providing DFES with enhanced evidence-based datasets to support strategic decision making for early community warning and preparedness.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Fire risk, prediction system, risk management, simulator, weather conditions}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Parker, Jackson and Allen, Adrian} } @article {bnh-6665, title = {Australian inquiries into natural hazard events}, number = {544}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the second research report for the Integrated Urban Planning for Natural Hazard Mitigation BNH-CRC project and constitutes a preliminary assessment of selected current approaches to integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation. Major post-event inquiries can play an important role in pushing for the reform of current urban planning arrangements to target disaster risk reduction. This was evident in the implementation of the Bushfire Management Overlay (see Appendix 1) and related statutory mechanisms in the State of Victoria after the 2009 Bushfires. Furthermore, recommendations can shed light on areas perceived as gaps during wider assessments of causes and contributory factors relating to major hazard events. Therefore, a review of urban-planning-related recommendations following major post-event inquiries and reviews across all-natural hazards will form the basis of this report, considering the role of urban planning in reducing emergent and legacy risks associated with the built environment.

The form of post-event inquiries varies widely, from the focused, technical and brief, to wide-ranging and lengthy such as those carried out by a Royal Commission (Eburn \& Dovers, 2015). While the recommendations of inquiries are very rarely binding on governments, they nonetheless carry significant weight and implementation is the norm. There were 142 post-event inquiries in Australia between 2009 and 2017, constituting by far the largest body of evaluation data regarding actual or perceived issues in disaster prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. This report begins to explore those recommendations from 55 major inquiries that relate to urban planning (Cole, Dovers, Eburn, \& Gough, 2017; Cole, Dovers, Gough, \& Eburn, 2018).

In this context, a preliminary assessment of urban-planning-related recommendations put forward by major post-event inquiries and reviews proved a worthwhile undertaking as the first step into understanding current approaches to integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in the past 10 years.

The assessment of these recommendations was informed by the analytical framework developed in the first research report for this project, developed through a review of relevant literature and in consultation with end-users. This analytical framework proposed a set of elements of an approach to integration, and a general list of urban planning tools and another of urban planning treatments of risk that can be used to support natural hazard mitigation.

Assessing urban-planning-related recommendations against the set of categories proposed in this analytical framework targeted both the mapping of these recommendations to unveil concentrations as well as the testing and expansion of the framework through its first practical application.

Findings from this preliminary assessment will inform the next stage of this research project which consists in the assessment of specific Australian and international case studies. The former will provide an opportunity to contrast recommendations with implemented integration while the later holds potential for an expansion of possibilities to integration to those already being employed in Australia.

}, keywords = {events, inquiries, mitigation, Natural hazards, urban planning}, issn = {544}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6996, title = {Community engagement in the post-disaster landscape}, volume = {Masters in Disaster, Design and Development }, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, school = {RMIT University}, type = {Masters}, abstract = {

The Hotspots Fire Project is a program providing landholders and land managers with the skills and\ knowledge to actively participate in fire management. It teaches how fire can be used as a land\ management technique to promote biodiversity, as well as to protect assets.\ 

Hotspots Fire Project is run jointly by the NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) and the Nature Conservation\ Council of NSW (NCC). It is steered by a Committee which includes representatives from the following\ organisations: NCC; NSW RFS; Southeast Queensland Fire and Biodiversity Consortium; Forestry\ Corporation; Local Government NSW; Local Land Services; Office of Environment and Heritage; NSW\ National Parks and Wildlife Service; and NSW Farmers.

Hotspots was recently run for residents of Carwoola NSW. Carwoola is a peri-urban area located just\ outside Canberra. In February 2017, the area was impacted by a major bush fire, which burnt 3,134\ hectares of land and destroyed over 50 buildings {\textendash} 11 of them houses.

This is the first time the Hotspots program has been run as a recovery tool for a disaster-affected\ community. The program was adapted for Carwoola to include: two series of two-day workshops for\ residents; a third workshop day that was also a community caf{\'e} session; training for local Stoney Creek\ (now Carwoola) RFS brigade to conduct bush fire risk assessments for houses; and on ongoing monthly\ community caf{\'e} with information sessions.

Workshop activities and messaging were adapted to address fears of fire. Local land-holders were\ encouraged to see fire as an integral part of the Australian landscape, and possibly as a useful land\ management tool. The overall aim was to make Carwoola{\textquoteright}s residents and landscape more resilient to\ future bush fires.

Demand for the Hotspots program {\textendash} in particular the workshops and property risk assessments {\textendash} was\ high to begin with. Fifteen months after the fire, interest from the community has waned.

This report looks at the Hotspots program with the view to identifying what worked and areas for\ improvement. Demand for post-disaster services is likely to increase given the increasing numbers of\ disasters. Understanding how all these elements come into play, along with sharing beneficial\ information and support is fundamental to future government programs offering post-disaster\ assistance.

}, keywords = {community, engagement, post-disaster}, author = {Zo{\"e} D{\textquoteright}Arcy} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6623, title = {Developing a (semi) automatic calibration procedure for cellular automata based land use models}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, school = {University of Adelaide}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

Land-use change models are used to understand the wide-ranging impacts that land-use changes have on a region. Effective modelling of land-use changes must capture multiple, mutually influential drivers. A common framework for modelling land-use changes uses Cellular Automata (CA), which have seen a growth in application driven by the availability of generic modelling platforms, shifting the focus of research about Land-Use Cellular Automata (LUCA) models from development to application, with a particular focus on calibration. Calibration of LUCA models is complex, as land-use change is a path-dependent process with uncertain outcomes captured by a number of model parameters. Of note are LUCA models that use a transition potential, which are traditionally calibrated using a manual approach, a process that is time-consuming and lacks objectivity. Hence, there has been a focus on the development of automatic calibration methods for these types of models. To automate calibration, metrics are used to capture two separate properties of performance: locational agreement, the match of pixels between simulated outputs and the corresponding observed data, and landscape pattern structure, the inferred realism of land-use change processes captured by the difference between the observed and simulated landscape patterns. The primary objective of this research is to develop improved automatic calibration methods for transition potential based LUCA models. There are two common approaches, optimisation-based and process-specific. The major contributions of this body of work are the development of improved versions of each type of approach, and the development of a hybrid method combining the advantages of the two approaches. First, a generic multi-objective optimisation framework for automatic calibration of transition potential LUCA models was developed in Paper 1 (Chapter 2) that allows for the exploration of trade-offs between the model performance objectives. Second, a process-specific semi-automatic calibration method that integrates objective analysis with discursive input to facilitate efficient calibration of neighbourhood rules (the main calibration parameter for this type of model) within a limited computational budget was developed in Paper 2 (Chapter 3). Finally, a generic framework for hybrid automatic calibration, which integrates domain knowledge into a multi-objective optimisation approach, was developed in Paper 3 (Chapter 4). The utility of each method was demonstrated via case study applications, showing promising potential for future applications of LUCA models to support long term planning and policy development.

}, keywords = {automatic callibration, cellular automata, land-use models}, url = {https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/119790}, author = {Charles Newland} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6715, title = {Developing a wildfire surveillance algorithm for geostationary satellites}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Wildfire surveillance is an important aspect of e↵ective wildfire management, requiring near continuous observations to detect and monitor fires. Geostationary satellites have the potential to meet this challenge, capturing full disk images every 10 to 30 minutes at ground sample distances down to 500 m for some sensors. However, the MIR (Middle Infrared) and TIR (Thermal Infrared) channels on geostationary satellite sensors have a coarse ground sample distance of 2-4 km. Currently, fire detection algorithms depend on these channels to detect thermal anomalies. The coarse spatial resolution in the MIR and TIR channels limits the application of geostationary satellite for wildfire surveillance. This thesis looks to fully exploit the potential of geostationary satellites for wildfire surveillance through a multi-spatial and multi-temporal approach.

The first research question in this thesis, develops and tests an algorithm to improve the wildfire surveillance capabilities of the geostationary satellites. The new algorithm utilises the MIR, NIR and visible channels, linking them to biophysical processes on the ground. The MIR channel is used to detect thermal anomalies, the NIR channel is used to detect changes in vegetation cover, and the visible channel detects smoke from the fire. By combining these detections, or observations, fire surveillance can be achieved at the highest ground sampling resolution available (typically in the visible wavelength channels). Initial algorithm development and testing were conducted on the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) sensor onboard the Himawari-8 satellite. The MIR, NIR and RED channels on AHI have 2 km, 1 km and 500 m ground sampling distances respectively, enabling the new algorithm to detect 2 km thermal anomalies and 500 m fire-line pixels. Fire-line pixels is a new product designed to\ detect the trailing edge of the fire.

Quantifiable methods for assessing algorithm performance in geostationary satellites are dicult to apply due to their high temporal resolution and lack of concurrent in-situ information. The second research question investigates methods for assessing the performance by considering the near continuous temporal sampling of geostationary satellites and the higher spatial ground sampling resolution a↵orded from LEO (Low Earth Orbiting) satellite observations. The study examines di↵erent evaluation methods and suggests a three-step process to provide the optimum performance evaluation for geostationary wildfire surveillance products, inter-compared with LEO satellite-based thermal anomaly detections.

Algorithm performance is further evaluated in research question three using the intercomparison method developed in research question 2 and applied to case study fires over Northern Australia. Subsequently, the algorithm is evaluated using an annual dataset (2016) comprising of nine study areas across Australia (totalling 360.000 km2) stratified by tree canopy cover. The algorithm reported an omission error of 27 \% at 2 km ground resolution when compared to VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) hotspots over the nine study grids. In Northern Australia, the algorithm detected fires up to three hours before LEO observations due to the high temporal frequency of observations. Furthermore, in comparison to MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) hotspots, there was a 73 \% chance of detecting fire activity at the location of the MODIS hotspot, before the MODIS overpass. The algorithm also demonstrated a 40 \% detection probability for fires less than 14 ha over Northern Australian woodlands. The fire-line pixels with a ground sampling distance of 500 m demonstrated a 25 \% commission error when compared to VIIRS hotspots over the nine study grids. Over Northern Australia, this figure was 7 \% inter-compared to Landsat-8 burnt scars.

The fourth research question applied the developed algorithm to the SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Image) sensor onboard the European Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite. SEVIRI has an operational fire product (FIR (Active Fire Monitoring)) which provides 3 km ground resolution hotspots using the MIR and TIR channels. The algorithm initially developed for AHI was modified to work with SEVIRI 3 km MIR channel and the High-Resolution Visible (HRV) channel (1 km). An inter-comparison\ of the modified algorithm with FIR products showed a 28 \% and 16 \% improvement in commission and omission errors respectively over a large case study fire in Portugal. The modified algorithm also improved the SEVIRI wildfire surveillance ground sampling resolution to 1 km taking advantage of the HRV channel.

The algorithm developed in this study demonstrates a novel approach to utilise geostationary satellites for wildfire surveillance with improved spatial resolution. Compared to the 2 km thermal anomaly hotspots derived through existing algorithms for AHI, the new algorithm provides 2 km thermal anomaly detections and 500 m fire-line pixels with performance comparable to that of medium resolution LEO satellites. Near-real time implementation of the algorithm has the potential to provide high temporal fire surveillance capabilities. The fire-line pixels from the algorithm could also be used to derive fire behaviour parameters such as heading and speed, providing an essential tool for wildfire surveillance in remote parts of Australia and other areas, where resources can only be deployed for a hand full of high-risk fires.

}, keywords = {AHI-FSA, HIMAWARI-8, inter-comparison, SEVIRI, wildfire surveillance}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162721}, author = {Chathura Wickramasinghe} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6624, title = {Domestic architecture and the perception of risk in bushfire-prone areas}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, school = {University of Sydney}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

This thesis examines the way in which the architecture of a house, specifically construction materials and the structure{\textquoteright}s immediate environs, influences residents{\textquoteright} perception of bushfire risk. Three research questions were used to consider different aspects of risk perception for domestic architecture within a bushfire context. These questions were: {\textbullet} Do residents living in bushfire-prone areas of Australia give the same bushfire risk rating to their locality and their house? Do these reflect the bushfire risk for the same area as assessed by the state fire authority? {\textbullet} When anticipating a bushfire, which parts of their current house do residents in bushfire-prone areas of Australia believe to be the safest and which parts the most vulnerable? {\textbullet} What architectural interventions might change residents{\textquoteright} perceptions of the bushfire risk of their homes? The method used to test the research questions was mixed methods with pragmatism as the research worldview. A questionnaire containing both quantitative and qualitative questions was distributed to residents in eight sample sites selected from bushfire-prone areas of the Blue Mountains and the Central Coast of NSW, Australia. The questionnaire was completed by 252 respondents either in print or electronic form. The majority of respondents gave a lower bushfire risk rating for their local area than their local fire authority, the NSW Rural Fire Service. The majority of respondents gave the same or a lower risk rating for their house than for their local area. During a bushfire respondents indicated they intended to take shelter in up to twenty different places/parts of their house and immediate environs. While the bathroom was the most frequent choice, it represented less than one quarter of responses given. Respondents identified up to ten different places/parts of their house and immediate environs that they intended to avoid during a bushfire, with upstairs rooms and spaces being the most frequent choices. Materials used in the construction of homes did not appear to influence how respondents allocated the bushfire risk to their house. Rather it was the area directly surrounding their house and its proximity to bushland (particularly National Parks) that respondents used to determine the bushfire risk of their property. Non-architectural variables such as gender, age, pet ownership, property ownership, and responsibility for dependents had little effect on the way respondents allocated their bushfire risk. The age of the house also did not influence respondents{\textquoteright} perception of their bushfire risk with respondents in houses constructed to the latest building codes (AS 3959) not indicating that their houses had greater bushfire resistance. Respondents identified fifteen architectural improvements to increase the safety of houses during a bushfire; the most frequently ones were, roof sprinklers and the clearing of vegetation close to the house. For architectural improvement, four overarching themes emerged: specific bushfire-resistant additions; building construction; cleared space/limited vegetation; and building maintenance/defence. The findings of this research, when evaluated against industry knowledge, may be useful in developing new regulatory standards or providing advice in relation to new or existing homes in wild/forest/bushfire-prone areas of the world.

}, keywords = {architecture, Bushfire, land management, Risk perception}, url = {https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/handle/2123/18959}, author = {Brown, Douglas} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6620, title = {Fire and heavy metals: when wild and controlled fires transform un-rehabilitated mining waste}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, school = {Federation University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Controlled fires conducted in fire prone areas are an efficient and economic option to reduce the frequency and intensity of wild fires that result in damage to human property, infrastructure and ecosystems. However, in a similar way to wild fires, controlled fires affect many of the physical and bio-geochemical properties of the forest soil, and may remobilize Potentially Toxic Elements (PTE) from vegetation and soil organic matter. The objective of this study is to investigate the mobilization of PTEs in a mined landscape after a controlled fire and to describe their temporal variations in concentrations. Soil samples were collected two days before and two days after the controlled fire, at the end of each season, and after a major rainfall in September 2016, from a legacy mine site in Maldon, Central Victoria, Australia, and analysed for PTE concentrations. The results revealed PTE mobility after the controlled fire, and most of the PTEs (As, Cd, Cu, Mn, and Zn) evidenced an increase in concentration (1.2, 1.5, 1.1, 2.9, and 1.7 times respectively) and other PTEs (Hg, Cr and Pb) shown a decrease (1.4, 1.1 and 1.1 times respectively) immediately after the fire. The increase in PTE concentration immediately after the fire is postulated to be associated with the addition of PTE enriched ash to the soil and the reduction is due to the volatilization of elements during fire. The PTEs, which increased their concentrations immediately after the fire show a temporal decrease in concentration in the post-fire soil environment due to the removal of ash and surface soil by rainfall runoff, leaching and wind activity. However, Hg shows an increase in concentration after the major rainfall event. Although, median concentrations of As, Hg, Pb, Cu and Zn exceeded the Australian and Victorian top soil averages, only As and Hg are considered to be a risk to human and aquatic ecosystems health due to their elevated concentration and toxicity. Climate change and the resulting projection for increased forest fire frequency illustrates a growing concern given the expected concomitant increase in PTE mobilization. Preparing appropriate land and water management strategies, and addressing environmental health practice and policy, specifically at the legacy mining areas require a review. This study highlights the significant risk these sites pose.

}, keywords = {controlled fires, Fire, heavy metals, mining, waste, wild fires}, url = {https://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/vital:13081}, author = {Joji Abraham} } @article {bnh-6643, title = {Floodway inspection and maintenance framework}, number = {540}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bridges, culverts, and floodways are vital road infrastructures for the operation of a road network. Their application may vary based on geographic and demographic features of the territory. Floodways are common in rural road networks as they provide economic and environmental friendly solutions over bridges and culverts. Floodways play a significant role in the economy of a country by connecting regional communities, farmlands and agricultural areas to city centers. For example, 48\% of total agricultural production in Australia in 2006 had been produced from regional council areas, those covering only about 6.9\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s population, 11\% of total Australian land mass and 24\% of roads in length [1]. Floodways are common in most of these rural road networks and, hence, play a vital role to distribute agricultural and farming products to highly populated city centers. Therefore, healthy operational levels of floodways are of paramount importance to maintain the continuous supply of essential commodities and the economic balance of Australia.

Floodways are different from bridges and culverts in the design and operational aspects. By definition, floodways are sections of roads which have been designed to be overtopped by floodwater during relatively low average recurrence interval (ARI) floods and are expected to return to fully serviceable level after the flood water recedes [2]. Although, floodways are designed to withstand at low flood levels, extreme natural disasters can damage these vital road infrastructures as evident from the 2011 and 2013 Queensland flood events. 58\% of floodway structures in the Lockyer Valley Regional Council (LVRC) area in Queensland, Australia, were damaged during the 2013 Queensland flood event leading to operational failures in rural road networks. Floodway damage leads to isolating regional communities and hindering the supply of agricultural products to other regions. In a post-disaster period, the long-term impacts on the community and the economy of the country depend on the speed of reestablishing the fully operational level of those floodways.

}, keywords = {Flood, Floodway, framework, maintenance}, issn = {540}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6636, title = {Increasing the comprehensiveness of bushfire risk management in Victoria through the planning system}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Settlement patterns and projected climate change impacts for Victoria are increasing the likelihood of bushfire exposure to human settlements. Urban planning is now considered an important component in disaster risk reduction and bushfire risk management; however, it has not always played such a role. Bushfire planning controls in Victoria have adapted to the threat of bushfires over time, but the changes have not been documented in detail. A review of past and present policy and regulations is needed to determine the comprehensiveness of Victoria{\textquoteright}s approach to bushfire risk management and to identify any gaps so that bushfire threats can be better addressed in the future.

This thesis seeks to examine the comprehensiveness of bushfire planning controls in Victoria between 2008 and 2018 and how changes to planning scheme regulations have modified the level of comprehensiveness over time. To determine comprehensiveness, bushfire risk management policy from the Victoria Planning Provisions were analysed at key time periods against a conceptual framework based on five accepted categories of approaches for reducing and adapting to hazards in human settlements. The five categories were hazard avoidance, hazard reduction, vulnerability reduction, preparedness for response and preparedness for recovery. Policy was analysed using a pattern matching technique and a simple time series analysis. The results indicate that Victoria{\textquoteright}s current approach to bushfire risk management is more comprehensiveness than that was in place in 2008 because risk, vulnerability and bushfire behaviour, and four of the five categories for reducing and adapting to hazards are better addressed through policy. Overall, current policy is not as comprehensive as policy that was introduced in 2011. This thesis concludes by highlighting gaps in current policy that should be addressed in the future to improve resilience to bushfire hazards and outlines recommendations for further research.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, planning system, risk management}, author = {Lucy Ockenden} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6701, title = {Initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, school = {University of Adelaide}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

Wildfires are naturally occurring phenomena that result in significant and catastrophic damage. Due to climate change, there has been a significant increase in the frequency, severity, and extent of wildfires. Therefore, there is a growing need to mitigate wildfire risk. In order to help mitigate the risk of wildfires, greater understanding is required. One particular gap in knowledge is the impact of smouldering combustion of potential fuel on wildfires. This thesis focuses on combustion of fuel beds in wildfires. Specifically, the thesis targets smouldering combustion. Smouldering combustion is a common type of combustion regime in wildfires and hazard reduction burning (a wildfire mitigation measure). Smouldering is a slow and low-temperature form of combustion, which shows no flame. Smouldering is a serious hazard because of its low ignition temperature, which makes it particularly relevant to fire initiation and spread. Smouldering plays a vital role in wildfires, as many forest biomass fuels such as grass, leaves and coarse woody debris are prone to smoulder. Most previous studies of smouldering combustion have only been carried out on polyurethane foam, due to its importance for residential fires. However, smouldering has been scarcely investigated from the point of view of wildfires. For example, smouldering combustion of forest fuel is scarcely studied. Hence, the project aims to develop a greater understanding of the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass under different conditions with an emphasis on wildfire. Locating smouldering combustion in wildfires and hazard reduction burning is difficult and time-consuming, as there is no effective method to identify the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds. It is critical to know when and where smouldering combustion in a biomass fuel bed starts, as smouldering combustion could transition to flaming combustion under certain conditions. Radiation is one of the important heat transfer mechanisms in wildfires; however, there are few studies on smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds started by external radiant heat flux. Although oxidiser flow rate and oxygen concentration have significant in influences on the propagation of smouldering front, their effects on the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuels are not well understood. Hence, the effects of oxidiser flow rate and oxygen concentration on the initiation of smouldering combustion are investigated. Fuels in a forest are diverse, and it is essential to have a better understanding of what effects forest fuels have on smouldering combustion. Thus, the effects of plant species and plant parts on the initiation of smouldering in biomass fuel beds are also investigated. Within this framework, the work presented in this thesis can be split into two main topics: 1. Conditions required to initiate smouldering combustion in bio- mass fuel beds The required radiant heat flux and air flow rate for the initiation of smouldering and flaming combustion in a biomass fuel bed are investigated in an experimental testing rig. This investigation identifies and quantifies smouldering and flaming combustion in a biomass fuel bed based on the measurements of temperature, product gas concentration and mass change, and the required radiant heat flux and air flow rate for the initiation of smouldering and flaming combustion are determined. The effects of heating time and oxygen concentration on the initiation of radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are investigated in the same testing rig. In this experimental study, the differences between radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are characterised based on the measurements of temperature, product gas concentration and mass change, and the required heating time and oxygen concentration for radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are determined. 2. Factors that influence smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds The results from the first topic reveal that oxygen availability has significant effects on the initiation of smouldering combustion in a biomass fuel bed. The air permeability of a biomass fuel bed determines oxygen availability in that fuel bed. Hence, the air permeability of natural forest fuel beds is investigated in an air permeability testing rig. In this study, the air permeability of natural forest fuel beds is determined using experimental and theoretical methods. A comparison between the experimental and theoretical methods is made. The effects of Euca- lyptus species and plant parts on smouldering combustion are also investigated. In this study, the different plant parts from different Eucalyptus species are characterised based on the results of the thermogravimetric and ultimate analyses. The results of this study show that the differences among the different plant parts from different Eucalyptus can be characterised and quantified based on the results of the thermogravimetric and ultimate analyses. It is also found that Eucalyptus species and plant parts have significant effects on smouldering combustion. Although this thesis covers a series of experimental studies of the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds. There are still many important factors to be considered. For examples, the thesis focuses on small-scale laboratory experiments to better understand the fundamental studies of smouldering combustion of biomass. However, the real-world conditions could be much more complex. For example, forest fuel beds are composed with fuel particles with various sizes and shapes. These factors also have effects on smouldering combustion.

}, keywords = {biomass, Bushfire, smouldering combustion}, url = {https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/114254}, author = {Wang, Houzhi} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6619, title = {Investigating the effects of soil moisture, temperature and preciptiation extremes on fire risk and intensity in Australia}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, school = {Monash University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The likelihood of extreme events such as forest fires is expected to increase due to climate change. However, the mechanisms promoting the conditions leading to fires, their risk, and likely intensity are not well studied. This thesis identifies the relationship between soil moisture, fire danger, extreme temperature and fire intensity in Australia.

}, keywords = {fire intensity, Fire risk, precipitation, Soil moisture}, url = {https://monash.figshare.com/articles/Investigating_the_effect_of_Soil_Moisture_Temperature_and_Precipitation_Extremes_on_Fire_Risk_and_Intensity_in_Australia/7133438}, author = {Alexander Holmes} } @article {bnh-6761, title = {Opportunities and constraints identified in existing frameworks in use for organisational learning}, number = {543}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This deliverable is adapted from the Owen, Bethune \& Krusel (2018) Report on Research Utilisation Review. This review was a collaboration between AFAC, the BNHCRC and the Decision tools project {\textendash} organisational learning stream. The review included previous data collection about use of BNHCRC tools (e.g., websites, hazard notes) as well as the opportunity to collect data nationally to inform the Decision Making tools organisational learning stream. That included the work further developing and validating a research utilisation matrix and to identify opportunities and constraints in agencies for organisational learning.

The analysis reported here continues to be further advanced in discussions with the Knowledge Innovation and Research Utilisation Network (KIRUN) where the findings were presented in August 2018. Based on that consultation work continues to be advanced to establish the next deliverable:

Framework synthesising existing agency practice in assessing and evaluating evidence that may require organisational learning and change{\textquotedblright}. The further development will also facilitate the development of papers for publication.

}, keywords = {data, Emergency management, organisational learning, Research utilisation}, issn = {543}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6625, title = {Parenting after Black Saturday: lived experiences since the 2009 Victorian bushfires}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the aftermath of disasters, parenting is often recognised for its influence on children{\textquoteright}s wellbeing and recovery. Research has also shown that the parental role has implications for parents{\textquoteright} post-disaster mental health as well. However, little is known about what the experience is like for parents themselves, particularly in Australia. In February 2009, catastrophic bushfires burned across the state of Victoria resulting in tragic loss of life, significant destruction of property and land, and disruption to communities. This study explored what it has been like to be a parent since the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires.

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 22 parents (19 mothers, 3 fathers) who, along with their dependent children, survived the Black Saturday bushfires. The interviews were conducted around 6-7 years following the fires, thus offering a longer-term perspective than much of the research in this area to date. An inductive thematic analysis was conducted to explore parental experiences over the years since the disaster.

The findings provide insight into parents{\textquoteright} experience of adjusting to life after the fires as that of being forced into a new normal. Parenting after the bushfires stood out for many as being different and difficult. For some, the extent or nature of the changes were spoken about as a loss of a valued part of their identity. Some changes stood out as new situations, ones they had never expected to face as parents. There were also challenges they considered typical of parenting which were amplified after the disaster and now felt beyond parents{\textquoteright} control.

This study identified five parenting challenges faced by participants in the aftermath of Black Saturday: (i) parenting flexibly and finding new strategies; (ii) sticking to their values; (iii) being present and available; (iv) being patient and tolerant; and, (v) negotiating differing needs. The challenges showed ways in which the post-disaster environment (e.g., the number of demands, changes within their communities), parental mental health (their own or their partner{\textquoteright}s trauma and grief reactions) and their children{\textquoteright}s mental health at times undermined their efforts to be the parents that they wanted to be.

Parental experiences of supports and services showed the value and nuance of relationships and indicated ways in which formal services can facilitate or strengthen social support. Additionally, the importance of reinforcements with helping children cope as well as services to assist parents{\textquoteright} own coping was highlighted. The findings also speak to the critical significance of childcare (in particular the availability of safe and trusted places for children) and value in facilitating opportunities for time together as a family away from the onslaught of post-disaster demands.

This study contributes to understanding the complexities of parenting and unique experiences of parents post-disaster. It has provided detailed insight into parental experiences following the Black Saturday bushfires offering an opportunity to acknowledge, normalize, and validate such challenges.

}, keywords = {bushfires, disaster, parental experience, parenting}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/222996}, author = {Lauren Kosta} } @article {bnh-6629, title = {Shaping future catastrophic disasters}, number = {537}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This study explores the influence of political, economic, environmental, social and technological factors on our changing riskscape and how these factors might influence the ability of communities to respond and recover from future catastrophic disasters. These factors are explored through a review of relevant literature and short interviews with emergency management leaders.

While there is wide uncertainty regarding future conditions that may shape disaster events, special consideration should be given to the increased risks posed by urban development in at-risk areas; the impact of climate change on the extreme weather events; system inter-connectedness and contagion risks; cyber-security; societal reliance on new technologies, and ageing infrastructure.

There are, however, opportunities to positively influence future risk profiles through the adoption of improved building codes and risk-informed land-use planning; urban renewal to enhance the resilience of existing development; climate change adaptation, especially in respect to the consequences of increased air temperatures and sea-level rise; by incorporating resilience considerations into infrastructure design; and the adoption of technological advances to better understand and manage risk.

}, keywords = {catastrophe, disaster, future}, issn = {537}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Michael Eburn and John McAneney} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6714, title = {The structural response and progressive failure of batten to rafter connections under wind loads}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, school = {James Cook University}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Batten to rafter connections in light framed timber housing are vulnerable to wind\ loading and failures of these connections are one of the more common failure modes\ seen in post windstorm damage surveys. Such failures often occur in a progressive or\ cascading manner resulting in the loss of a large section of the building envelope.\ These progressive failures of batten to rafter connections are a complex process\ influenced by the pressure fluctuations on the roof surface, the response of individual\ connections and the behaviour of the structural system as a whole.

This study presents a method of examining load redistribution and progressive failure\ behaviour of batten to rafter connections in light framed structures. Nonlinear time\ history analysis was performed using a finite element model using fluctuating\ pressures determined from a wind tunnel study and connection properties determined\ from laboratory testing of connections under dynamic loads.

Flow separation and building-induced turbulence cause intermittent {\textquoteleft}peak-events{\textquoteright}\ where negative pressures on the roof surface are especially high. These {\textquoteright}peak-events{\textquoteright}\ can move across the roof causing high loads occurring at different connections with\ slight lead or lag times. Damage to connections occur during the {\textquoteright}peak events{\textquoteright} as nails\ are incrementally withdrawn. Loads are redistributed and load paths change during\ nail slips, causing damage to spread from an initial location. Load redistribution\ continues until a few connections fail completely, upon which a cascading failure\ occurs where almost all connections on the roof fail in rapid succession.

As an application of this research, the analyses performed were used to assess the fragility of batten-rafter failures, and the most vulnerable parts of the roof identified. Cost effective retrofitting measures can be justified and designed with this\ information.

}, keywords = {batten to rafter, Correlation of loads, Light framed structures, Low-rise buildings, progressive failures, wind engineering, wind loads, Wind tunnel study}, url = {https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/62277/}, author = {Korah Parackal} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6633, title = {Understanding Wildfire Patterns in the South-Eastern Australia}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, school = {University of New South Wales}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

Wildfires affect ecological processes, threaten human lives and cause economic losses. Understanding of fire patterns is required to better support the planning of sustainable fire management and risk reduction activities. Fire occurrence and fire size are two essential fire pattern components that describe the distribution of fires and the impacts of fires on landscapes and ecosystems. They vary substantially within and between regions due to variation in weather, fuel, topography and ignition sources. In this thesis, remotely sensed and administrative records as well as Generalised Linear Models and Generalised Additive Models have been used to understand fire occurrence patterns in the south-eastern part of Australia, as well as to obtain knowledge on the patterns of fire occurrence and fire size in the inland semi-arid riverine area.The results suggest that in the south-eastern Australia, wildfires are more likely to occur in mountainous areas, forests, savannas, and in areas with high vegetation coverage and near human infrastructures, while they are less likely to occur on grasslands and shrublands. Environmental variables are strong individual predictors while anthropogenic variables contribute more to the final model. Fire-ignition drivers and their effects vary across ecoregions. There are non-linear relationships between the probability of fire ignition and some of its drivers e.g. the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index.This study also reveals that on the NSW side of the Riverina bioregion, human-caused fires mostly occur in spring and summer while natural fires are clustered in summer. Forested wetlands and dry lands experience summer and spring-summer fire regime, respectively. Fire probabilities are higher in forested wetlands than in dry lands and in areas with intermediate inundation frequencies. Weather, fuel and ignition sources are comparably important in regulating human-caused ignitions, while weather contributes more than fuel in driving natural ignitions. Larger-size Fires that burned Entirely in forested Wetlands (FEW) are associated with higher ambient rainfall conditions of the 6th, 13-14th and 17-18th months before fires. Fire danger index is more powerful than other ambient weather factors in explaining the FEW size. The contributing and the most effective factors become different when fires burned in dry lands are incorporated.

}, keywords = {fire occurrence patterns, modelling, risk reduction, wildfires}, url = {https://www.unsworks.unsw.edu.au/primo-explore/fulldisplay?vid=UNSWORKS\&docid=unsworks_51121\&context=L}, author = {Yang, Zhang} } @article {bnh-8039, title = {Value Tool for Natural Hazards: Guidelines}, number = {361.2018}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The {\textquotedblleft}Value Tool for Natural Hazards{\textquotedblright} comprises of a Value Tool Database, which provides a collection of non-market value estimates relevant to natural hazards, and these Value Tool Guidelines, which describe how to use the values collated in the Database. The purpose of the Value Tool is to provide an accessible list of non-market value estimates for policy makers to use in decision making about natural hazard management.

The non-market or intangible benefits and costs of natural hazards are large in many cases, and should be accounted for in prioritising investment in natural hazard mitigation. We recommend that non-market values should be considered in natural hazard decision making as follows:

The Guidelines provide an overview of non-market values and benefit transfer for natural hazard decision making as follows:\ 

The Value Tool Database and Guidelines provide guidance on how the non-market value estimates should be used, and the policy contexts under which they are best suited for use. We recognise that the non-market valuation literature is incomplete with respect to providing highly accurate value estimates for all of the value types that might be affected by a natural hazard (see Section 3). However, we advocate that the use of an approximate number is usually better than no number, when it comes to decision making. It is better to have some information about the intangible benefits of a decision, than to ignore them completely: the error, and decision bias, resulting from the latter is likely to be far greater than the error from using an inaccurate number.

Provided the policy maker is aware of the potential for this error, uses a conservative approach for transferring values, and undertakes appropriate sensitivity analysis in analyses that use those values, then the values can provide useful, quantitative information for decision making. As noted above, in some cases, where a value transfer is too unreliable, we don{\textquoteright}t recommend using the values in a quantitative analysis, but suggest using them in a qualitative manner to inform thinking about particular policies.

}, keywords = {guidelines, hazards, natural, tool, Value}, issn = {361}, author = {Abbie Rogers and Fiona L Gibson and Peter Boxall and Michael Burton and Jacob Hawkins and Robert Johnston and Marit Kragt and John Rolfe and David J Pannell} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6621, title = {Effects of prenatal bushfire stress on life history traits in humans}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, school = {Australian National University}, keywords = {Bushfire, bushfire effects, Stress}, url = {https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/132117}, author = {Megan O{\textquoteright}Donnell} } @article {bnh-7289, title = {Household preparedness for bushfires: the role of residents{\textquoteright} engagement with information sources}, number = {604}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The following report shows that even after controlling for bushfire risk perceptions, people who access and engage with information sources are better prepared for bushfires than those who do not. The report notes, however, that the majority of people are not accessing information on how to prepare their household for bushfires, despite being at risk of this occurrence. Several key finding are summarised below.

}, keywords = {bushfires, household preparedness, information sources, resident engagement}, issn = {604}, author = {Ilona M McNeill and Jennifer Boldero and Elle McIntosh} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6491, title = {Disaster Resilient Communities: Engagement with Spontaneous Volunteer Groups}, volume = {Masters of Environments}, year = {2016}, month = {06/2016}, school = {University of Melbourne}, type = {Masters}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This study tackles the confliction between the willingness of the altruistic to assist in times of disaster against the capacity of the emergency management system to effective utilise the human resource effectively. The aim is to investigate the role of Spontaneous Volunteer Groups (SVGs) in strengthening community disaster resilience through a qualitative, context-driven research approach from a pragmatist viewpoint utilising open-ended questions. This approach is problem-driven occurring in the particular context of severe disaster events where traditional services are often overwhelmed and resources stressed. The data was collected from interviewees who have contributed significantly to the emergency management sector. The interviews were recorded, stored, analysed and emergent generalised and specific themes discussed in reference to the criteria set out in the national 2015 Spontaneous Volunteer Strategy.
The study contends that if the Australian community and emergency management sector are serious in achieving a society able to genuinely share responsibilities for resilience to disasters, and build community capacity, then the following should be promoted: inclusiveness {\textendash} including allowing SVGs to self-organise; power-sharing; transparency; engagement with volunteer motivations ; flexible volunteering models ; preparedness to manage volunteer emergence; disaster education and training, activities identification within all disaster phases; forming strong and lasting community links; addressing risk and liability; developing on-the-spot training procedures; sharing information , skills and knowledge; communication clarity; key liaisons; altering mindsets; social media engagement and essentially developing plans and actionable procedures for empowering people to demonstrate their resilience. Currently this path can be a difficult one to follow, despite its promotion with many national strategies, due to restrictions, barriers and complexities within the sector.
The expanded upon strategy can assist the government and Emergency Service Agencies (ESAs), in the face of limited policy, to recognise their responsibilities to operate together and engage meaningfully with alternative forms of assistance in a less restrictive emergency management system, to promote optimal protection of communities from future disasters. In complex environments ESAs must demonstrate flexibility to efficiently adapt, change and restore new and more resilient function to communities.

}, keywords = {communities, disasters, Emergency management, resilience, spontaneous volunteers, volunteer groups, volunteers}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/11343/229442}, author = {Gemma Gray} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6622, title = {Effective communication of household wildfire risk through WebGIS: considerations in content, representation and design}, year = {2016}, month = {12/2016}, school = {University of Western Australia}, abstract = {

This thesis demonstrated a personalised, map-based warning approach to provide effective wildfire warnings to the public. Theoretical and empirical studies were conducted to identify appropriate content, representations, and interactive design for developing a webGIS based warning tool. By providing empirically tested visual information, the proposed method has the potential to substantially improve public response to warnings. Whilst focused primarily on Australia , this design can be extended for application in other countries by accounting for local contexts. The holistic user-centred approach adopted in this research also provides systematic methodological guidance for designing effective map-based warnings for other hazards.

}, url = {https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/publications/effective-communication-of-household-wildfire-risk-through-webgis}, author = {Yinghui Cao} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6627, title = {Measuring fire-induced change in the understorey of an Australian dry sclerophyll forest using remote sensing}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This research investigates the use of remote sensing technologies for measuring and mapping the changes in the forest understorey in response to prescribed burning. Remote sensing has been used extensively to map the burn areas in fire-affected landscapes, but less work has been done focussing on beneath the canopy. Sub-canopy vegetation layers are important for habitat and for understanding the fuel hazards they may pose to the risk of wildfire. Accordingly, instruments and approaches must be able to perform in both pre- and post-burn environments, and be able to provide meaningful measures of change.

Wildfires are increasing in intensity and frequency, and in response prescribed burning is used to mitigate threats posed by them. Quantifying post-fire effects is important for burn severity, ecosystem recovery and post-fire hazard assessments. This information will allow land managers and scientists to understand fires in their environmental, economic and social contexts and help formulate responses and policies accordingly. However, measures of fire effects and fuel hazards which are done via visual assessments are known to be subjective and inconsistent between assessors and over time. What is needed is an improvement in the reporting procedures around quantification of fire effects which are both repeatable and quantifiable.

In this research two remote sensing technologies were used to measure, map and track changes in the understorey of an Australian dry sclerophyll forest. Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) was used to derive vegetation structure variables and HSR (HyperSpectral Radiometry) was used to derive vegetation physiological variables. The study site was located in St. Andrews, Victoria, Australia within which a control plot and three fire treatment plots were set-up and monitored over a two year period, before and after a prescribed fire event conducted in autumn 2012. The datasets collected were used for statistical and spatial analysis of changes in understorey vegetation, and to assess those metrics best suited for describing different vegetation responses to fire effects.

The first part of this research examined the potential of TLS to detect fire-induced change in the forest understorey. From TLS point clouds a total of 18 metrics were extracted which were tested against accuracy and reliability criteria. Three metrics; mean AGHchange (Above Ground Height), median AGHchange and point countchange were shortlisted. To report different post-fire changes in burnt understorey, mean AGHchange metric was used. This metric was able to report fire effects such as total burn area, measures of patchiness, spatial distribution of burnt and unburnt areas, fuel accumulation and prescribed burn efficiency across various temporal scales.

The second part of this research analysed hyperspectral data of the near-surface (grass) and surface fuel layer (litter). Spectral changes in the near-surface fuel layer were observed in Visible (550nm), Near-Infrared (680-750nm) and Middle Infrared (970nm, 1220nm, 1550nm) domains of the electromagnetic spectrum. For the surface fuel layer (litter) changes were observed in the Middle Infrared domain (1140nm, 1225nm and 1700nm). The greatest difference from pre-burn levels for both the fuel layers occurred within the first two weeks post-burn. Spectral indices corresponding to the above determined broad spectral bands were tested to ascertain which were best at characterising burnt from unburnt targets whilst also tracking recovery. Indices such as NDVI, NBR and D720 were found to be the most suitable for near-surface fuel layer whilst D1230 for surface fuel layer.

A preliminary investigation into comparing the change detected by the two remote sensing technologies suggested that physiological change detected by HSR, recorded vegetation recovery as early as six weeks post-burn. Structural change detected by TLS even after two years post-burn was recorded as being close to two weeks post-burn levels. This finding matched well with visual assessments of structural measures (plant cover and height).

The findings of this study suggest that improvements in reporting procedures around quantification of fire effects can be achieved using TLS and HSR technology. TLS-derived structural metric, mean AGHchange can accurately detect quantified measures of fire-induced change in forest understorey that can be validated with field assessments. It can also report post-fire effects at various temporal scales including area burnt, burn patchiness, fuel load accumulation and prescribed burn efficiency. Spectral indices such as NDVI, NBR and D720 were able to accurately detect both vegetation loss and recovery. There is merit in further investigating TLS and HSR in conjunction for quantified and robust reporting of fire effects. The change detected by these technologies can be linked to inform both vegetation recovery and fuel accumulation.

}, keywords = {burn severity, fuel hazard, post-fire effects, prescribed burns, remote sensing}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:161758}, author = {Vaibhav Gupta} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6626, title = {Spanning boundaries to support effective multi-agency coordination in emergency management}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, school = {University of Tasmania}, abstract = {

Modern disasters are frequently beyond the management capability of any one organization and repeatedly necessitate an approach requiring multiple organizations such as those witnessed following the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the Haiti earthquake in 2010. An increased susceptibility of societies impacted by natural and man-made hazards consequently requires a coordinated response from public and private organizations in an effort to mitigate the risk to the affected communities. Failure to enact an adequate response to manage the consequences of disastrous events has the potential to create widespread death and injury to an already vulnerable global population.


This doctoral thesis by publication draws attention to the specialist workers involved in emergency management arrangements, commonly called liaison officers, from organizations involved in multi-agency coordination efforts. Liaison officers are required to span organizational boundaries to provide linkages between organizations engaged in emergency management events. Consequently, they are deemed fundamental to the success of any multi-agency coordination approach. However, the work of liaison officers is problematic as they are invariably confronted by a myriad of social, organizational and technological complexities. The unique nature of multi-agency coordination in emergency management is generally highlighted by coordination failure and continues to be inadequately addressed in practice and in research.


The principal aim of the research was to explore the work of liaison officers involved in multi-agency arrangements and suggest a framework for improving multi-agency coordination in emergency management. The research was thus embedded in human factors drawing on theories that also provided a contextual understanding of dynamic socio-cultural environments. In so doing the research explicitly drew upon the methodology of core-task analysis which is a conceptual modelling approach for the analysis of empirical qualitative data that is typically suited to high reliability environments.


The qualitative data used in this research was collected from a series of individual interviews, observational studies and focus group interviews conducted with liaison officers from public and private organizations across three Australian states. The findings are presented in five scientific research papers. Three of the papers have been published in internationally recognized peer-reviewed journals. The final two papers have been submitted for publication and are currently under review.


The contributions of this research have enhanced knowledge development and provided insights that can be utilised in evidence-based practice in emergency management. The theoretical contribution provided an insight into the work of liaison officers in the context of emergency management arrangements. The methodological contribution permitted the application of core-task analysis to the domain of emergency management where it had not previously been applied. Finally, facets of this research have recently been implemented by industry into operational doctrine and organizational learning processes.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, liaison officer, multi agency coordination}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/22781/}, author = {Steve Curnin} }