@article {bnh-8356, title = {Empowering Indigenous natural hazards management in northern Australia}, journal = {Ambio}, year = {2022}, month = {06/2022}, abstract = {

Northern Australia is prone to recurring severe natural hazards, especially frequent cyclones, flooding, and extensive wildfires. The region is sparsely populated (<< 0.5 persons km-2), with Indigenous (Aboriginal) residents comprising 14\% of the population, and typically the majority in remote regions. Despite national policy committed to addressing emergency management (EM) in vulnerable Indigenous communities, implementation remains unfunded. We synthesise participatory intercultural research conducted over seven years exploring core challenges, opportunities and potential solutions towards developing effective EM partnerships. Similar EM engagement and empowerment issues face First Nations and local communities in many international settings. In search of solutions, we explore developing effective partnership arrangements between EM agencies and culturally diverse Indigenous communities. Observing that government already provides substantial investment in cultural and natural resource management programmes conducted by over 150 Indigenous Ranger Groups (IRGs) nationally, we demonstrate that expansion of IRG roles to incorporate EM community engagement and service delivery can provide multiple cost-effective community and business development benefits for many remote communities.

}, keywords = {Climate change, indigenous people, Natural disasters, participatory action research, risk management, vulnerable communities}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01743-x}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-022-01743-x}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Glenn James and Alan M. Dhamarrandji and Ted Gondarra and Danny Burton and Bevlyne Sithole and Otto Bulmaniya Campion and Hmalan Hunter-Xenie and Ricky Archer and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @article {bnh-7977, title = {Bioclimatic drivers of fire severity across the Australian geographical range of giant Eucalyptus forests}, journal = {Journal of Ecology}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, abstract = {

The relationships between productivity, fire frequency and fire severity shape the distribution of plant communities globally. Dry forests are expected to burn frequently and wet forests to burn infrequently. However, the effect of productivity on intensity and severity of wildfire is less consistent and poorly understood. One productive ecosystem where this is especially true is the Australian tall wet Eucalyptus-dominated forest (TWEF), which spans wet areas across the continent. This study aims to characterise how climate shapes the likelihood of low- and high-severity wildfire across Australian TWEF.

We performed a continental-scale analysis of fuels in 48 permanent plots in early-mature stage TWEF across four climate regions in Australia. We estimated fuel loads and measured understorey microclimate. We then obtained historical fire-weather observations from nearby meteorological stations and used fuel moisture and fire behaviour equations to predict the historical frequency with which TWEF could burn and what fire severities were expected. We investigated how this varies across the different TWEF climate regions. Lastly, we validated our approach by remeasuring eight plots that burned unexpectedly post-measurement.

We found that surface fuels in cooler, moister regions were available to burn 1{\textendash}16\ days per year historically, with only low-severity, surface fire possible most of these days: high-severity fire was only possible under rare, extreme fire-weather conditions. However, in warmer, drier regions, fuels were available to burn 23{\textendash}35\ days annually, and high-severity fire was more likely than low-severity fire. Validation showed that we slightly overestimated flame heights, inflating high-severity risk estimates. If we used elevated fuel loads to predict flame heights, however, high-severity fire was more likely than low-severity fire everywhere. Lastly, the likelihood of high-severity fire increased with increasing temperature and worsening fire weather.

Synthesis. Fire activity in early-mature TWEF is limited by climatic constraints on fire weather and availability to burn, with high-severity fire more likely in warmer, drier regions than in cooler, wetter ones. This indicates a particularly worrisome vulnerability to climate change, given TWEF{\textquoteright}s diminished ability to recover from disturbance in a warmer world. The occurrence of both low- and high-severity fire means the fire regimes of TWEF are best described as mixed severity.

}, keywords = {biogeography, Climate change, ecological disturbance, fire ecology, fire severity, macroecology, mixed-severity fires, tall wet Eucalyptus forests}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13663}, url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.13663}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and Lynda Prior and Grant Williamson and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-8236, title = {Implications of climate change for emergency services operations - insights from the literature}, number = {699}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Greenhouse gas emissions to date and existing pledges for emissions reduction from national governments suggest that the world is tracking a medium emissions future at best, and possibly a high emission one. This report consolidates available knowledge of the potential impacts of climate change on key issues that influence the (emergency management services (EMS) in Australia and New Zealand, through a systematic review of the literature (both peer reviewed and grey literature) combined with an analysis of relevant inquiries. It is an output of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project entitled Preparing emergency services for a climate-challenged world.

For the EMS, one of the most immediate and visceral impacts of climate change is increasing frequency and severity of disaster-inducing natural hazards. Yet, it would be a mistake to assume that this is the extent of the challenge: interacting climatic, social, demographic and economic trends will result in transformations in our societies and way of life. For the EMS, the climate change adaptation challenge is more than just {\textquoteleft}more of the same{\textquoteright}. The increasingly significant impacts that climate change is having on the natural and human systems that support livelihoods and wellbeing in Australia and New Zealand present a profound challenge for all communities, businesses and services.

In the decades ahead, Australia is expected to experience increased warming across the whole of the continent with rainfall declines over much of the southern parts of the country very likely. These changes are not unfolding linearly. Already it is clear that the climate has altered over recent decades through a serious of step changes or {\textquoteleft}breaks{\textquoteright}. This means that current rates of change are an unreliable indicator of future rates of change.

Similarly, New Zealand is already registering warming and changing rainfall in some regions. These trends are expected to continue and include increasing average temperatures and more hot days for norther areas, significant shifts in rainfall patterns and more extreme rainfall, and profound increases in the time spent in drought by 2040. Sea level rise is also a major concern for the island nation, with sea level rise around New Zealand projected to be up to 10\% higher than the global average.

For Australia and New Zealand, climate change means more heatwaves, more extreme precipitation events, more bushfire weather, more storms, fewer but more intense cyclones, and more landslides. It also means more compound events and cascading impacts, where multiple extreme events occur simultaneously {\textendash} as was seen in Black Summer, where bushfires, heatwaves and floods were experienced during a long-term drought. Climate change is also increasing the risk that second and third order impacts of disasters, such as a disease outbreak following a flood, themselves cascade into another event of equal or greater severity.

Increasing frequency and severity of climatic hazards are intersecting with growing exposure and changing vulnerability patterns to drive disaster risk. Some of the desirable features of contemporary lifestyles {\textendash} such as high levels of consumption and technology-dependent, centralised systems {\textendash} are further increasing disaster risk. A no-regrets approach to climate change adaptation is\ to build {\textquoteleft}adaptive capacity{\textquoteright}, which is made up of five interlinked domains: assets, flexibility, social organisation, learning, and agency. Building adaptive capacity/reducing vulnerability requires looking beyond direct climate change impacts (e.g. managing heat) to address structural and systemic constraints on the ability of people and ecosystems to adapt to ongoing change, such as social inequalities, low environmental sustainability and poor governance.

Climate change adaptation incorporates a range of objectives and areas of effort. While it necessarily involves {\textquotedblleft}coping{\textquotedblright} at any moment in time, it also extends far beyond just coping to also better {\textquotedblleft}fit{\textquotedblright} emerging conditions and to proactively adjust to, and help positively shape, the future. Criteria of success of a climate change adaptation initiative include effectiveness, efficiency, equity, accounting for externalities, and having an extended time horizon. The inverse of good adaptation is maladaptation: actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate related outcomes, increased vulnerability to climate change, or diminished welfare, now or in the future.

Adaptation faces limits and barriers. As climate change worsens, it is likely impacts will exceed some systems{\textquoteright} and groups{\textquoteright} capacity to manage them. Uneven structural vulnerabilities and engrained issues such as downplaying climate change risks means some groups are continually or regularly unable to cope or adapt well. One of the risks of the {\textquotedblleft}shared responsibility{\textquotedblright} paradigm of disaster risk management in Australia is that {\textquoteleft}communities often are left to manage residual risks shifted towards individuals, whether or not they have the financial, physical, mental, or social capacity to manage them{\textquoteright}. It is often assumed that a lack of climate change information or adaptation knowledge is the main barrier to effective and timely adaptation action. While knowledge and information are important, analysis of barriers to adaptation suggests that institutional barriers (e.g. lack of clear mandate, roles, responsibilities, willingness to act) are often more significant.

One of the enablers of good climate change adaptation is systems thinking {\textendash} appreciating systemic relationships and how to manage them. When it comes to the EMS, a systems-based approach widens our understanding of the sector and the many implications of climate change for it. This report presents two frameworks that are useful for contextualising the EMS in a wider context, identifying how climate change might influence various elements of this system, and where the EMS can direct different types of adaptation strategies.

The academic literature provides some valuable insights into the drivers at work in the EMS context. However, very little research addresses the {\textquotedblleft}question of the future{\textquotedblright} per se and that which does, does not do so in a comprehensive manner that incorporates climate change or challenges the assumption that existing trends will unfold linearly. We therefore need to bring together different insights in order to piece together what the future may entail for the EMS. One useful way to begin this process is to systematically consider the {\textquoteleft}STEEP drivers{\textquoteright} - that is, insights into Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Policy/Political drivers {\textendash} and to then start thinking through how they may interact with climate change. In response to input from the scenarios team (the other part of this project), we have included a sixth category {\textendash} legal {\textendash} into the framework. This report provides examples of the types of changes and uncertainties the EMS may need to consider as it encounters the climate change adaptation undertaking.

We draw on the literature review to present analysis provided to the scenarios process. This includes a summary of biophysical impacts of climate change to 2035, including a plausible (but not predictive) climate hazard event map. We then summarise the likely flow-on effects to 2035 and finally the likely implications of those flow-on effects for water and environment, agriculture and aquaculture, infrastructure, human health and wellbeing, and society in general. Finally, we explore what adaptive capacity might look like under the four plausible futures developed by the scenarios team. In this way, the EMS has a comprehensive picture of what climate change impacts might influence them and what resources they might have to manage them.\ 

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {699}, author = {Lauren Rickards and Adriana Keating} } @article {bnh-8291, title = {Influence of climate change and fuel management on bushfire risk in Western Australia}, number = {714}, year = {2021}, month = {12/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire risk is likely to increase in the future due to the combined impacts of climate change and urban sprawl. This report presents the results of an analysis combining the outputs from stakeholder consultation with those from the Unified Natural Hazard Risk Mitigation Exploratory Decision Support System (UNHaRMED) to quantify increases in bushfire risk due to different population growth and climate change scenarios in four areas of emerging bushfire risk in Western Australia. Results indicate that increases in bushfire risks from 2018 to 2050 range between 23.9\% and 59.7\% (in terms of average annual loss), depending on the scenario and case study area considered. UNHaRMED is also used to assess the potential of mitigating these increases in risk via fuel load reduction.

Results indicate that fuel management can reduce future bushfire risk and that the decline in risk is positively correlated with an increase in the proportion of the landscape treated. However, our results suggest that in cases where fuel management does significantly reduce the risk of impacts posed by bushfires, this reduction was much less than an increase in risk from climate change.

It should be noted that this project focused on the rural-urban interface in alignment with the existing Bushfire Risk Management Planning approach adopted in Western Australia. As such, landscape-scale mitigation was not considered in this particular project, but would be an important consideration in future research.

}, keywords = {bushfire risk, Climate change, Fuel management, Western Australia}, issn = {714}, author = {Amelie Jeanneau and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Tim McNaught and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-8235, title = {Preparing emergency services for operations in a climate-challenged world - summary report}, number = {689}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

EMS agencies are learning to adapt and be prepared for futures where the changing climate will influence the services they deliver, and how they deliver those services. This research project was designed to help the sector to better prepare for these futures and take action to more quickly adapt as it unfolds, and importantly take action to shape the future in ways that reduce the risks of the hazards ahead.

In 2020 and 2021 this research project, under the stewardship of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, collaborated with a select group of leaders and professionals (a scenario team) from across the Australia and New Zealand EMS. The research project was completed in three integrated parts:

  1. A synthesis of the literature conducted by RMIT on the implications of climate change for emergency services operation
  2. A series of participatory workshops with the project scenario team to develop an explorative and adaptable methodology that is then used to create transformative scenarios (2021-2035)
  3. Develop EMS guidance for using transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world for planning and decision-making in EMS.

By involving key people from across the EMS in the construction and application of the scenarios (the scenario team), this project has helped to build the sector{\textquoteright}s understanding and capabilities in scenario development and in scenario use and application. The project has not only strengthened the scenario thinking capability of the participants across a range of agencies, but secured positive support and endorsement from the scenario team who can continue to share and apply the project methods across the EMS.

A range of documents and resources are available from www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/climatescenarios. These include a workbook, and a research and methodology pack:

Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world {\textendash} workbook:

Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world {\textendash} research and methodology:\ 

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {689}, author = {Stephen Atkinson and Geoff Brown and Russell Fisher and Zoe Fitzgerald and Lauren Rickards and Adriana Keating} } @article {bnh-8232, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - a guide for using scenarios in the emergency management sector}, number = {708}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

While this Guide references the breadth of ways in which scenarios can be applied in practice, the core purpose of this Guide is to outline one practical way for EMS organisations to start using these scenarios. The Guide outlines a simple, yet powerful way (wind tunnelling) for organisations to test and improve decision making and planning in an uncertain world where the volatility, frequency and magnitude of climate events will challenge the sector like never before. Experimenting with this {\textquotedblleft}wind tunnelling{\textquotedblright} approach and becoming familiar with its use in the context of one{\textquoteright}s own organisation, will provide leaders and decision-makers with the strategic insights required to strengthen and improve their strategy work and support their organisations to more effectively adapt to and influence the future.

This Guide is designed to be used in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook, which includes:

You will also need to access Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology, which includes:\ \ 

All of these documents can be found here.

The Guide draws on the global experience of Reos Partners in developing and applying scenarios in many different contexts, the climate change research conducted for the project by RMIT University, the wisdom and hands-on experience of the sector-wide scenario team and a little bit of collective imagination.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {708}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8233, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - emergency management sector case studies as worked examples}, number = {710}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

The purpose of Emergency management sector case studies as worked examples is to provide a {\textquoteleft}light{\textquoteright} version of a wind-tunneling process using four case examples from the perspective of different Emergency Service agency types:

  1. Urban firefighting services\  \  \  {\textquotedblleft}urban operations{\textquotedblright}
  2. Rural firefighting services\  \  \  \  {\textquotedblleft}rural operation{\textquotedblright}
  3. Land management agencies\  \  \ {\textquotedblleft}land management{\textquotedblright}
  4. State emergency services\  \  \  \  \ {\textquotedblleft}emergency services{\textquotedblright}

Abridged versions of four strategies or plans have been selected as {\textquoteleft}cases{\textquoteright} to illustrate the application of the wind-tunnelling process described in\ Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: a guide for using scenarios in the emergency management sector.

The cases are:

Case 1 {\textendash} Urban Operations: State Emergency Response Plan Extreme Heat Sub-Plan (2017)

Case 2 {\textendash} Rural Operations: Barwon South West Bushfire Management Strategy (2020)

Case 3 {\textendash} Land Management: City of Ipswich Floodplain Management Strategy (2019)

Case 4 {\textendash} Emergency Services: NZ Risk Reduction Strategy (2019-29)

The Case Studies draw on the experience of the sector-wide scenario team in developing the scenarios and have been designed to be used in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook, including:

You will also need to access Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology, which includes:\ \ 

All of these documents can be found\ here.

Note that wind-tunnelling is a rigorous process requiring significant time and resources, and that these Case Studies are a {\textquoteleft}light{\textquoteright} version of a wind-tunnelling process developed for illustrative purposes only in order to show ways in which the worked examples may be tested and improved.

Note also that not every step in each worked example of the case studies has been fully completed. Parts have been deliberately left blank with an invitation for the reader to engage and complete the exercise. Again, what{\textquoteright}s provided is by way of example is for illustrative purposes only.

Finally, none of the results of wind-tunnelling provided here should be seen as a recommendation for any improvement to any of the strategies selected as EMS Case Studies.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {710}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8234, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - research methodology for scenario development}, number = {709}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

This document presents the research methodology behind the development of the scenarios.

It is designed to be read in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook and the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology pack, which includes:

All of these documents can be found\ here.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {709}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-7944, title = {Intensifying Australian heatwave trends and their sensitivity to observational data}, journal = {Earth{\textquoteright}s Future}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, abstract = {

Heatwaves are an accustomed extreme event of the Australian climate, which can cause catastrophic impacts on human health, agriculture, and urban and natural systems. We have analysed the trends in Australia-wide heatwave metrics (frequency, duration, intensity, number, cumulative magnitude, timing, and season duration) across 69 extended summer seasons (i.e., from Nov-1951 to Mar-2020). Our findings not only emphasise that heatwaves are becoming hotter, longer, and more frequent, but also signify that they are occurring with excess heat, commencing much earlier, and expanding their season over many parts of Australia in recent decades. The Australian heatwave trends have strengthened since last observed Australian study was conducted. We also investigated the heatwave and severe heatwave trends at a local city-scale using three different observational products (AWAP and SILO gridded datasets and ACORN_SATV2 station data) over selected time periods (1911-2019, 1911-64, and 1965-2019). Results suggest that heatwave trends are noticeably different amongst the three datasets. However, the results highlight that the severe heatwave cumulative magnitude and their season duration have been increasing significantly in recent decades over Australia{\textquoteright}s southern coastal cities (like Melbourne and Adelaide). The climatological mean of the most heatwave and severe heatwave metrics is substantially higher in recent decades compared to earlier periods across all the cities considered. The findings of our study have significant implications for the development of advanced heatwave planning and adaptation strategies.

}, keywords = {Australia, Climate change, heatwaves, urban}, doi = {10.1002/essoar.10505178.1 }, url = {https://www.essoar.org/doi/10.1002/essoar.10505178.1}, author = {P Jyoteeshkumar reddy and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-6774, title = {Unpacking the meaning of resilience: the Tarnagulla community definition comparing to the literature}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, pages = {29-37}, abstract = {

In 2018, the Tarnagulla Alternative Energy Group in regional Victoria took steps to plan futures for their town and its local community that strengthened resilience to the many challenges in the area including those from climate change. Believing that {\textquoteright}anticipation strategies work against known problems, while resilient strategies are better against unknown problems{\textquoteright} (IFRC 2012, p.5) the group turned to the RMIT Climate Change Transformations group to unpack the meaning of resilience as it related to the town and community. The purpose was to produce a locally-focused Resilience Action Plan. Despite an international consensus and media propagation of resilience as a silver bullet to address future uncertainties, the concept remains contentious and challenging to implement. This paper considers how the various framings of resilience - the {\textquoteright}conceptual{\textquoteright} (in literature) and the {\textquoteright}operational{\textquoteright} (in policy) - relate to the Tarnagulla community{\textquoteright}s lived experience and the implications. The comparison allows to unpack a mixture of the complexities in understanding the nature of values, preferences, expectations, capacities, contested knowledge, as well as, the uncertainties. Study findings show that communities are best placed to frame their resilience, collectively and from a {\textquoteright}systems{\textquoteright} perspective, and that implementing actions, which may require radical change, hinge on a political voice and sustained support from policy makers.

}, keywords = {Climate change, community, operational, resilience, strategies}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-january-2020-unpacking-the-meaning-of-resilience-the-tarnagulla-community-definition-comparing-to-the-literature/}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati} } @conference {bnh-6525, title = {Climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Climate change is recurrently cited as the most important perceived challenge of this century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014; Watts et al. 2017). Yet, the perceptions of the risk of climate change, its societal impacts, ramifications and particularly the solutions needed to address it require further investigation.

This study profiles regional emergency and disaster management professional{\textquoteright}s perceptions of climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania. We aimed to examine what evidence exists to support decision making and profile the nature, type and potential human impact of climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Decision making, disaster, Emergency management}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Cuthbertson, Joseph} } @article {bnh-5654, title = {Climate change effects on the frequency, seasonality and interannual variability of suitable prescribed burning weather conditions in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {271}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, chapter = {148-157}, abstract = {

Despite the importance of prescribed burning in contemporary fire management, there is little understanding of how climate change will influence the weather conditions under which it is deployed. We provide quantitative estimates of potential changes in the number of prescribed burning days in coastal NSW in south-eastern Australia, a fire-prone area dominated by dry sclerophyll forests. Burning days are calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble using three definitions of suitable weather conditions based on: a literature search (Literature), actual weather observed during recorded prescribed burns (Observed) and operational guidelines (Operational). Contrary to some claims, evidence for a decrease in prescribed burning days under projected future climates is weak. We found a complex pattern of changes, with the potential for substantial and widespread increases in the current burning seasons of autumn (March-May) and spring (August-October). Projected changes were particularly uncertain in northern NSW, spanning substantial increases and decreases during autumn. The magnitude of projected changes in the frequency of burning days was highly sensitive to which definition of suitable weather conditions was used, with a relatively small change for the Operational definition (+0.3 to +1.9 days per year across the study area) and larger ranges for the Observed (+0.2 to +7.9 days) and Literature (+1.7 to +6.2 days) definitions. Interannual variability in the number of burning days is projected to increase slightly under projected climate change. Our study highlights the need for a better understanding of the weather conditions required for safe and effective prescribed burning. Our analysis provides practitioners with quantitative information to assess their exposure to a range of potential changes in the frequency, seasonality and variability of prescribed burning weather conditions.

}, keywords = {Burn window, Climate change, Fire weather, Global warming, Hazard reduction, Prescribed burning, prescribed fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.03.005}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192319301091}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Bruce Tran and Matthias M. Boer and Owen Price and Belinda Kenny and Ross Bradstock} } @conference {bnh-6530, title = {Climate Ready Communities: empowering communities to spread climate preparedness messaging and take local action}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has articulated an urgent need to address climate change in its recent report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5{\textdegree}C. Even the most optimistic projections indicate the inevitability of some increase in global temperatures, even if emissions were to be significantly reduced today. With the most vulnerable likely to be the hardest hit by changing weather patterns driving natural hazards of increased severity and frequency, it is essential that communities have access to resources and support to adapt.\ 

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, communities, community support, Global warming, local action, Preparedness, resources}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Nick Banks and Dani Austin} } @conference {bnh-6408, title = {Denaturalising heatwaves: gendered social vulnerability in urban heatwaves, a review }, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Heatwaves are dangerous and have killed more people in Australia than all other climate related disasters combined. Urban environments are considered especially vulnerable to heatwaves due to the Urban Heat Island effect. Increasing death rates from heatwaves are predicted to become one of Australia{\textquoteright}s most detrimental impacts of climate change (IPPC 2014) with major implications for emergency services and public policy development. The catastrophic dimensions of heatwave mortality are not spread evenly across society but are concentrated among specific population groups. Older people, especially women, are overrepresented in heatwave related excess mortality statistics internationally. Using a critical perspective, this paper aims to present a literature review exploring current research on social vulnerability of older women during urban heatwaves. It will illustrate how heatwave vulnerability is largely socially constructed through the intersection of deeply entrenched gender inequality with systemic socio-economic disadvantage. The review will highlight the need for heatwave intervention to be guided by a social justice perspective, to avoid older, poorer women becoming the shock absorbers of the climate crisis. This paper is part of my PhD research project at Monash University: {\textquoteleft}Denaturalising heatwaves: gendered social vulnerabilities in urban heatwaves and the use of public cool spaces as a primary heat health measure{\textquoteright}. The research has ethics approval.

}, keywords = {Climate change, deaths, heatwaves, urban, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Margareta Windisch} } @conference {bnh-6504, title = {Experiences with the global impacts of climate change}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Textbox Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency managers are in the grips of climate change. The climate is changing in Canberra, where I work. In turn that is affecting the spectrum of incidents that we as emergency managers are responding to. This involves the community through the risks to the community (that we seek to mitigate).

I seek to explore this through my direct experiences on the job: as an emergency manager, as a technical expert and as a research scientist. Our climate in Canberra has changed, and has changed dramatically, starting with the 1997 El Ni{\~n}o event when our climate started following what is termed the {\textquotedblleft}Hockey Stick Curve{\textquotedblright} (Mann et al, 1999). A typical summer now involves: extreme heat, extreme atmospheric moisture, extreme storms and extreme raised dust. By using the hockey stick concept it is clear that this is not the {\textquotedblleft}New Norm{\textquotedblright}, rather that the situation may deteriorate quickly.

Looking more widely, across the nation, we have seen challenging wildfire outbreaks in Queensland, Tasmania (twice) and other areas. My work as a fire behaviour analyst (FBAN) makes it clear that our prior expectations are losing their validity. What do we replace them with? Looking globally, I have deployed to Canada as an FBAN and I am collaborating as part of a global atmospheric research project looking at the growing impact of fire thunderstorms (pyroCbs). This required monitoring of smoke impact on the Greenland Ice Cap, and its potential impacts. I was in the IMT for two of the world{\textquoteright}s most significant pyroCb events. We are seeing this new wildfire problem occur in new regions, starting with Australia in 2001, but now expanding rapidly every year.

Staggering changes, devastating impacts and massive challenges - are we adapting correctly? I offer some take-home messages to help, covering observing, sharing, preparing and adapting.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, Fire behaviour, fire impacts, fire management, global impact, Wildfire}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Rick McRae} } @conference {bnh-6513, title = {Future risk framework: understanding tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk and what we can do to reduce it}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Unless appropriate mitigation action is taken, disaster risk is likely to increase into the future due to factors such as climate change, population growth, economic development and an ageing population. Consequently, there is a pressing need to think about plausible future risks and how to best mitigate them. This paper presents the future risk framework, which provides a structured, stepwise approach for relevant agencies to explore future risk and what it means for their organisation. The framework consists of four main steps, progressively increasing in levels of insight into future risk, as well as increasing the level of quantification of risk. A key feature of the framework is the incorporation of sense-making and its implementation consists of a combination of participatory approaches and the use of data, information, modelling and analysis. Application of the framework is illustrated for the case study of Greater Adelaide, South Australia, highlighting the approaches used and the level of insight into future risk obtained at each of the four stages. A discussion on the challenges associated with using this insight to mitigate future risk is also provided, suggesting that a collaborative, multidisciplinary, multi-agency approach is needed to effectively mitigate all aspects of future risk, especially those associated with increases in exposure and vulnerability.\ 

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Disaster risk, mitigation, Planning, risk management, risk reduction}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and James Daniell and Sofanit Araya and Graeme Dandy and Jeffrey Newman} } @article {bnh-5437, title = {Historical background and current developments for mapping burned area from satellite Earth observation}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {225}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, pages = {45-64}, abstract = {

Fire has a diverse range of impacts on Earth{\textquoteright}s physical and social systems. Accurate and up to date information on areas affected by fire is critical to better understand drivers of fire activity, as well as its relevance for\ biogeochemical cycles, climate, air quality, and to aid fire management. Mapping burned areas was traditionally done from field sketches. With the launch of the first Earth\ observation satellites, remote sensing quickly became a more practical alternative to detect burned areas, as they provide timely regional and global coverage of fire occurrence. This review paper explores the physical basis to detect burned area from satellite observations, describes the historical trends of using\ satellite sensors\ to monitor burned areas, summarizes the most recent approaches to map burned areas and evaluates the existing burned area products (both at global and regional scales). Finally, it identifies potential future opportunities to further improve burned area detection from Earth observation satellites.

}, keywords = {Burned area, Climate change, Fire, fire impacts, Lidar, Radar}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.013}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425719300689}, author = {Emilio Chuvieco and Florent Mouillot and Guido van der Werf and Jes{\'u}s San Miguel and Mihai Tanasse and Nikos Koutsias and Mariano Garcia and Marta Yebra and Marc Padilla and Ioannis Gitas and Angelika Heil and Todd Hawbaker and Louis Giglio} } @article {bnh-6856, title = {Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {29}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, pages = {414-426}, abstract = {

Fire agencies are moving towards planning systems based on risk assessment; however, knowledge of the most effective way to quantify changes in risk to key values by application of prescribed fire is generally lacking. We present a quantification and inter-regional comparison of how risk to management values responds to variations in prescribed burning treatment rate. Fire simulations were run using the PHOENIX RapidFire fire behaviour simulator for two case study landscapes in interface zones in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia. A Bayesian network approach used these data to explore the influence of treatment and weather on risk from wildfire. Area burnt, length of powerline damaged and length of road damaged responded more strongly to treatment in the ACT than in Tasmania, whereas treatment mitigated house loss and life loss more strongly in Tasmania than the ACT. The effect of prescribed burning treatment rate on area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval was similar in each case study landscape. Our study shows that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by wildfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Climate change, trends, Wildfire, wildland fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18135}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18135}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-5615, title = {Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Fire agencies are moving towards planning systems based on risk assessment; however, knowledge of the most effective way to quantify changes in risk to key values by application of prescribed fire is generally lacking. We present a quantification and inter-regional comparison of how risk to management values responds to variations in prescribed burning treatment rate. Fire simulations were run using the PHOENIX RapidFire fire behaviour simulator for two case study landscapes in interface zones in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia. A Bayesian network approach used these data to explore the influence of treatment and weather on risk from wildfire. Area burnt, length of powerline damaged and length of road damaged responded more strongly to treatment in the ACT than in Tasmania, whereas treatment mitigated house loss and life loss more strongly in Tasmania than the ACT. The effect of prescribed burning treatment rate on area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval was similar in each case study landscape. Our study shows that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by wildfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Climate change, trends, Wildfire, wildland fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18135}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18135}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6637, title = {Understanding the nature of abrupt decadal shifts in a changing climate}, year = {2019}, month = {11/2019}, school = {Victoria University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Planning for future climate risk tends to incorporate assumptions of smoothly accelerating\ climate change, around which unchanged variability constitutes the risk boundaries. This\ constitutes hypothesis H1 {\textendash} forced warming and natural variability evolve gradually and\ independently and the climate response is trend-like. Against this, there is evidence for H2 {\textendash}\ forced warming interacts with natural variability and the climate response includes abrupt\ steps. Earlier than expected breaching of risk bounds follows from H2.\ 

New automation tools, and post-detection tests find and characterise step-like regime onsets\ in temperatures.\ 

With these tools I show that step-like temperature regime shifts are detectable at all spatial\ scales at the land and ocean surface, and in the vertical temperature structure of the ocean.\ Based on published climate models shifts respond to warming by becoming more intense,\ wider-spread and more frequent. Regimes are regional, differ qualitatively between land and\ ocean, align with natural variability coincident with known bio-physical shifts. Two, circa 1976\ and 1996, align with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, involving rapid vertical ocean\ restructuring. One, 1968 in the Southern Hemisphere ocean does not, and 1986 in the\ Northern Hemisphere reflects atmospheric reorganisation.

H2 is strongly supported by the findings. Step-like warming dominates trends, increasingly so\ at finer scale.

}, keywords = {climate, Climate change, decadal shifts, risk management}, author = {Ricketts, J} } @conference {bnh-6291, title = {Wind-terrain effects on firebrand dynamics}, booktitle = {23rd International Congress on modelling and Simulation}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, abstract = {

Despite its importance in bushfire propagation, firebrand transport and the spotting process are still poorly understood, and there is no definitive model that can adequately emulate the spotting process in general. The dynamics of firebrands are difficult to predict due to the complex flow structure resulting from the interaction of a buoyant plume with a boundary layer wind field. Understanding the nature of this flow structure, especially for complex terrain, is essential for determining the likely path of firebrands and subsequent distributions of new spot fires and risk levels on structures downwind from the fire.

Although several prior computational modelling studies have carried out investigations of firebrand transport, the effect of the terrain has not previously been taken into account. It is well known that topography can significantly affect ember generation. For example, the enhanced intensity of a fire running up a steep slope can generate a large number of embers. More generally, terrain-modified flows and the strong turbulence associated with leeward slopes and flow around other prominent topographic features may have a pronounced effect on the transport of firebrands. Moreover, modes of dynamic fire propagation such as vorticity-driven lateral spread and eruptive fire spread in canyons involve a coupling between the fire, the terrain and the prevailing winds and so can affect the rate at which firebrands are produced as well as their subsequent transport.

In this study we use a coupled computational fluid dynamic (CFD) and Lagrangian particle approach to model the transport of firebrands. The model is applied to two different terrain scenarios to investigate the flow dynamics, firebrand trajectories and landing patterns resulting from the interaction with the terrain. The first scenario is a line of fire on the lee slope of a ridge burning perpendicular to an incident wind flow. The second scenario is a fire burning in a canyon aligned with the wind. The simulations indicate that the addition of terrain adds a further level of complexity to the flows generated by interaction between the wind and the fire. The terrain appears to modify the counter-rotating vortex pair in the plume structure. For the fire in the lee of the ridge line, the wind-terrain interaction resulted in a flattening and tilting of the counter-rotating vortex pair and enhanced regions of recirculation at the edges of the fire, which were conducive to lateral transport of embers. For the fire in the canyon, the channelling of the winds up the canyon resulted in the formation of a single jet-like vortex transporting firebrands upwards and over the top of the canyon. We hypothesise that this effect is caused by the shape and alignment of the canyon, which forces the vortex pair to merge into a single vortex.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Hydrograph model, parametrization, precipitation, runoff formation processes}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2019.H7.hilton}, url = {https://mssanz.org.au/modsim2019/H7/hilton.pdf}, author = {James Hilton and Jason J. Sharples and Garg, N and Murray Rudman and Swedosh, W and Commins, D} } @article {bnh-5623, title = {Describing adaptation tipping points in coastal flood risk management}, journal = {Computers, Environment and Urban Systems}, volume = {69}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, abstract = {

Assessing changing coastal flood risk becomes increasingly uncertain across multi-decadal timeframes. This uncertainty is a fundamental complexity faced in\ vulnerability\ assessments and adaptation planning. Robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) are two\ state-of-the-artdecision support\ methods that are useful in such situations. In this study we use RDM to identify a small set of conditions that cause unacceptable impacts from\ coastal flooding, signifying that an adaptation tipping point is reached. Flexible adaptation pathways can then be designed using the DAPP framework. The methodology is illustrated using a case study in Australia and underpinned by a\ geographic information system\ model. The results suggest that conditions identified in scenario discovery direct the attention of decision-makers towards a small number of uncertainties most influential on the vulnerability of a community to changing flood patterns. This can facilitate targeted data collection and coastal\ monitoring activities\ when resources are scarce. Importantly, it can also be employed to illustrate more broadly how uncontrolled\ societal development, land use and historic building regulations might exacerbate flood impacts in low-lying urban areas. Notwithstanding the challenges that remain around\ simulation modelling and\ detection of\ environmental change, the results from our study suggest that RDM can be embedded within a DAPP framework to better plan for changing coastal flood risks.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Climate change, Inundation, Tipping point, uncertainty, Vulnerability}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2018.01.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0198971517304520}, author = {Timothy Ramm and Christopher Stephen Watson and Christopher J. White} } @article {bnh-6054, title = {Fragility and climate impact assessment of contemporary housing roof sheeting failure due to extreme wind}, journal = {Engineering Structures}, volume = {117}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, pages = {464-475}, abstract = {

The paper describes a risk analysis of the economic impact of damage to metal roofing of a typical contemporary (new) Australian house subject to extreme wind loading. The failure modes considered are roof cladding and batten-to-truss connection failures, with the effect of defective construction also considered. Monte-Carlo simulation and structural reliability methods are used to stochastically model spatially varying pressure coefficients, roof component failure, and load re-distribution across the roof. This spatial reliability analysis enables fragility curves to be developed that relate likelihood and extent of roof cover loss to gust wind speed. The annual economic risk is up to 0.3\% of house replacement value. A typical house with construction defects increases economic risk more than sixfold when compared to the defect-free house. There is a 10\% chance that a changing climate will increase expected losses for houses in Brisbane and Melbourne by 6{\textendash}18\% over the next 50 years.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Damage, Fragility, Housing, Reliability, Wind load}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2018.05.125}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141029618302499}, author = {Mark Stewart and John Ginger and David Henderson and Paraic Ryan} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5391, title = {Improving adaptation planning for future sea level rise and coastal flooding}, year = {2018}, school = {University of Tasmania}, address = {Hobart}, abstract = {

Sea level rise has the potential to exacerbate coastal flooding around the world, causing more frequent extreme sea levels, nuisance flooding and permanent inundation. Projecting diverse physical, environmental and socio-economic impacts to coastal communities across multi-decadal timeframes is vital for informed adaptation planning. However, this is increasingly uncertain and challenged by conflicting stakeholder priorities.

This thesis develops an interdisciplinary approach to advance the planning of long-term adaptation pathways in the context of coastal flood risk management. Utilising three case studies in south-east Australia, it combines the strengths of robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) {\textendash} both prominent tools to support decision-making under conditions of uncertainty {\textendash} together with solicited values-based information to make three novel advances towards flexible adaptation pathways planning.

First, this thesis combines the strengths of RDM and DAPP for planning adaptation pathways by using scenario discovery to provide a multi-dimensional description of adaptation tipping points. The scenario discovery process uses an existing cluster finding algorithm to identify future conditions where adaptation policies no longer keep flood risk at tolerable levels. Combining RDM and DAPP is a novel approach in coastal flood risk management and scenario discovery provides greater visibility on the physical factors driving adaptation tipping points. Second, values-based information is integrated into the adaptation planning process in an attempt to consider subjective social and cultural impacts from coastal flooding. In this regard, the novel combination and explanatory value of lived and landscape values is investigated. Consideration of these more intangible effects are often omitted in coastal adaptation planning but can contribute to more informed adaptation decisions. Third, the combined RDM and DAPP method developed uses both geographic information system (GIS) software and open source programming tools to analyse flood impacts. This improves the usability and relevance of a combined RDM and DAPP approach, enabling the efficient redeployment and customisation of the method to suit different location-specific needs. Such an approach also provides a lower cost entry point for local government agencies to begin planning coastal adaptation pathways.

Each of these advances combine to provide a framework that improves the way coastal adaptation pathways are planned and developed. The findings elucidated from the case studies show how a combined RDM and DAPP approach can account for spatial and temporal interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability flood risk factors, which improves the way robustness is measured for adaptation policy options. Values-based approaches can shape the selection of adaptation objectives, improve the design of options, support the evaluations of adaptation pathways and inform monitoring systems. The resultant adaptation pathways framework can support local government in planning sustainable strategies to manage long-term flood impacts. This has global applications for coastal flood risk management that will become increasingly important throughout the coming century.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Climate change, coastal flooding, decision-making, Planning, risk, sea level rise, uncertainty}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/29624/}, author = {Timothy Ramm} } @article {bnh-4697, title = {The Unquantified Risk of Post-Fire Metal Concentration in Soil: a Review}, journal = {Water, Air, \& Soil Pollution}, volume = {228}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, abstract = {

Forest fire is a natural disturbance that occurs in many terrestrial ecosystems specifically in the semi-arid environments and is considered to be an important cause of environmental change. Though many causes of fire are identified, including lightning, volcanic eruption, power line sparks, etc., human involvement is the most significant factor. Fire events are able to alter the physical, chemical and biogeochemical properties of the soil and surface materials and are able to release major and trace metals into the environment. This may be more significant in mining-affected and industrial landscapes, where elevated concentrations of metals present in the soil. After the fire event, metals become more mobile due to the increase in soil surface exposure and the mobility associated with ash dispersal. This mobility may increase the bioavailability of the metals, which may generate water quality issues and may contribute to human and environmental health concerns. Even though, the influences of fire on many soil properties are well established, the behaviour of metals with respect to fire is not well investigated. However, a few studies report that major and trace metals include Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn and As are mobilized after fire with increased concentrations in soil and water resources and this might pose a risk to human health and ecosystems. Climate change may increase the intensity, frequency and areal extend of fire events and hence increase the metal concentrations and their potential health impacts. This paper reviews post-fire (wild fire) mobility of metals in soil common in contaminated forest ecosystems. The human and ecological health risks of these metals are also considered.

}, keywords = {Climate change, environment, fire., forest, soil}, doi = {10.1007}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11270-017-3338-0$\#$citeas}, author = {Joji Abraham and Kim Dowling and Singarayer Florentine} } @article {2046, title = {Climate and recent fire history affect fuel loads in Eucalyptus forests: Implications for fire management in a changing climate}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {260}, year = {2010}, month = {2010/10/15/}, pages = {1791 - 1797}, abstract = {Predicted changes to global climates are expected to affect natural fire regimes. Many studies suggest that the impact of these effects could be minimised by reducing fuel loads through prescribed burning. Fuel loads are dynamic and are affected by a range of factors including fire and climate. In this study, we use a 22-year dataset to examine the relative influence of climate and fire history on rates of litterfall and decomposition, and hence fuel loads, in a coastal Eucalypt forest in south-eastern Australia. Litterfall and decomposition were both affected by temperature, recent rainfall and fire history variables. Over the study period prescribed burning immediately reduced fuel loads, with fuel loads reaching pre-burn levels within 3 years of a fire. Modelling fuel loads under predicted climate change scenarios for 2070 suggests that while fuel loads are reduced, the levels are not significantly lower than those recorded in the study. Based on these predictions it is unlikely that the role or value of prescribed burning in these forests will change under the scenarios tested in this study. }, keywords = {Accumulation, Climate change, Decomposition, Forest management, Prescribed burning}, isbn = {0378-1127}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6T6X-511H38D-1/2/2825befe9a608c7cb83a0a58406d25a8}, author = {Trent Penman and York, Alan} }