@article {bnh-7943, title = {Assessing the real costs of natural hazard-induced disasters: A case study from Australia{\textquoteright}s Northern Territory}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, abstract = {

Natural Hazard-induced Disasters (NHD) cause a wide range of losses to built and natural environments, the latter often beyond standard measures. Precise accounting and characterisation of the losses can assist in developing effective management policies that help to build resilient communities. This study applies trans-disciplinary approaches to assess total, monetary and non-monetary, NHD-related losses, estimated at AUD 156 million per year (2010{\textendash}2019 average), for Australia{\textquoteright}s Northern Territory where bushfires, cyclones, storms and floods are destructive and frequent events. Non-monetary losses, often overlooked or omitted, were estimated at AUD103 million per year, accounting for two-thirds of total disaster-related losses. Marketable losses, estimated at AUD 53 million per year, were inferred, using standard and non-standard datasets, from the Australian Government{\textquoteright}s Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements, insurance costs (Insurance Council of Australia database), and other relevant sources. Non-monetary losses were accounted for by the loss of ecosystem services from natural systems caused by cyclones and bushfires only, applying ecological economics approaches, but without considering long-term losses over the duration of recovery. This study informs disaster management policies to invest in collective emergency and environmental management planning for reducing NHD risk and building resilience of local communities to manage and prepare for rapidly changing climates. Such an accounting approach is essential in contexts where NHDs disproportionately affect the lives and well-being of disadvantaged remote communities.

}, keywords = {bushfires, Cost of natural disasters, cyclones, Floods, Loss from natural disasters, Natural hazard-induced disasters}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04692-y}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-021-04692-y$\#$citeas}, author = {Kamaljit Sangha and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards and Akhilesh Surjan} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8311, title = {Investigating the psychological factors that influence cyclone mitigation behaviour}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {280}, school = {James Cook University}, address = {Townsville}, abstract = {

Tropical Cyclones can cause significant damage to houses located in high-risk areas. In Australia, cities and towns situated on the north coast of Queensland are considered some of the most cyclone-prone communities in the country. Cyclone related property damage can, however, be reduced if the citizens of these communities perform appropriate protective behaviours. People can, for example, install structural upgrades on their houses, which improves the house{\textquoteright}s ability to withstand cyclonic winds. There is also a range of short-term preparedness behaviours that have been shown to effectively mitigate cyclone related property damage. Though, to date, the proportion of people that perform these mitigation behaviours has been relatively low. The overall aim of this research project was to explore why some people do, and others do not, perform cyclone mitigation behaviours.

Past research has shown that Expectancy Value (EV) theories help to explain whether people perform mitigation behaviours for natural hazards. However, an EV based theory has yet to be applied to explain cyclone related structural mitigation behaviour. This research project addressed this research gap by testing the extent to which an adapted EV theory helps to explain people{\textquoteright}s intention to install cyclone shutters. An initial study showed that psychological factors within the adapted EV theory were significant predictors of mitigation behaviour. The results also indicated that an adapted EV theory can be used differentiate between different types of people and their levels of intention to install cyclone shutters. A follow up study showed that that hazard intrusiveness, perceived benefits and perceived cost were the only significant predictors of shutter installation status when controlling for other psychological, demographic and experience factors. The results indicate that when perceived benefits (i.e., the secondary benefits of a structural upgrade) and perceived efficacy (i.e., the perceived ability of the structural upgrade to mitigate harm) are considered separate constructs, only perceived benefits is a significant predictor of structural mitigation\ behaviour. The findings suggest that people are more likely to invest in shutters if they believe that the secondary benefits of shutters outweigh the cost.

Although most EV theories suggest that risk perception influences protective behaviour, empirical research has shown that risk perception is not always a significant predictor of mitigation behaviour. This research project also tested a new method of assessing risk perception to determine if it was significant predictor of short-term cyclone preparedness behaviour. The results indicate that when controlling for objective risk and protective action perceptions, the predicted damage and anticipated negative emotions associated with that damage were both significant predictors of preparedness intention. The results suggest that it is possible to identify a relatively strong link between risk perception and mitigation intention when it is considered a dual-process phenomenon and objective risk is controlled for in the analysis.

Research investigating mitigation behaviour for natural hazards also tends to show that people with experience perceive more risk and are more prepared for future events. However, the link between experience, risk perception and mitigation behaviour seems to be dependent on the type of experience. One type of experience that has not been studied empirically is that of fringe experience. The final study addressed this research gap by exploring how people who had experienced the fringe effects of a severe cyclone (i.e., experienced lesser wind speeds compared to those near the eye of storm) predicted future damage from similar cyclone event. It was found that the more people overestimated the severity of the cyclone they experienced, the less damage they predicted they would experience from a future severe cyclone. The results highlight the importance of specifying the type of experience being assessed in empirical research and that fringe experience is one type of experience can lower risk perception.

The findings from this research project have several implications. The results show that different psychological factors are important for explaining different types of mitigation behaviour. It is, therefore, important for future research applying EV theories to adapt them in accordance with the type of behaviour they are attempting to explain. The findings also suggest that the link between experience, risk perception and cyclone mitigation behaviour is dependent on the way in which these variables are conceptualised and operationalised. Overall, this research project shows that how people think about cyclones and mitigation behaviours helps to explain the extent to which they prepare for cyclones.

}, keywords = {cyclone mitigation behavior, cyclone preparedness, cyclones, fringe experience, hazard intrusiveness, hazard-related attributes, protection motivation theory, protective action decision model, Risk perception}, doi = {10.25903/rsvz-3w27}, url = {https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/68936/}, author = {Mitchell Scovell} } @article {bnh-6311, title = {Community benefits of roof upgrades}, number = {528}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Legacy houses (Houses built Pre-1982) are at risk of damage from wind loads due to the often inadequate roof hold down provided by connection details. Improving wind resistance through replacing roof connections or retrofitting the existing structure can greatly improve building performance and community safety. The Queensland Government Household Resilience Program (HRP) provides funding to help eligible home owners improve the resilience of their homes against cyclones. This program developed with advice from the Cyclone Testing Station is managed by the Queensland Department of Housing \& Public Works (QDPWH) and commenced in late 2018.

}, keywords = {community resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, engineering, resilience, roof, Severe Weather}, issn = {528}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and David Henderson and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-6276, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events - annual report 2018-19}, number = {524}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project will provide practical structural retrofits that will make a significant improvement in the performance of Pre-80s (Legacy) houses to wind loads. The major activity carried out in 2018-19 by the CTS-JCU and GA has been progressing the VAWS software package using wind loading and structural response and other test data:

This project has also provided advice to the Queensland Government Household Resilience Program which provides funding to help eligible home owners improve the resilience of their homes against cyclones. This program is managed by the Queensland Department of Housing \& Public Works (QDHPW) and commenced in late 2018. Eligible home owners can apply to receive a Queensland Government grant of 75\% of the cost of improvements (up to a maximum of $11,250 including GST. About 2000 houses have been retrofitted.

}, keywords = {building resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, engineering, Housing, severe wind, storms, structural design}, issn = {524}, author = {John Ginger and Korah Parackal and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and David Henderson and Mark Edwards} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6247, title = {Simulation and analysis of surface wind fields during landfalling tropical cyclones}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, school = {University of Queensland}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are rotating atmospheric vortices characterised by high wind speeds thatpose a major threat to people and infrastructure in coastal communities. To minimise their impacts,the winds in the lowest part of the TC boundary layer (TCBL) must be adequately understood. Thisunderstanding enables engineers to make rational decisions around building design in these regionsand allows meteorologists to improve their forecasts. Of particular importance is how the TCBL ismodified when abrupt changes in surface terrain conditions occur, such as during landfall, which cansignificantly alter the physical structure of a TC. Although near-surface TC wind data has begun to becaptured through coordinated field campaigns in, for example, the USA and Australia, there is littleexplicit information on how the TCBL is modified during landfall or in the vicinity of other suddenchanges in land surface conditions. This thesis sets out to investigate this process through, 1) analysisof near-surface wind observations, and 2) numerical simulation of idealised TCs.To explore how near-surface turbulence is modified, the present study analysed observational TCwind records at measurement heights of 2.25 m, 3 m, 5 m, and 10 m collected during 11 TCs from theFlorida Coastal Monitoring Program (FCMP), StickNet, and the Surface Weather Information Relayand Logging network (SWIRLnet). These low-level records will be analysed to assess their turbulentcharacteristics and the response of these characteristics to sudden changes in land surface. Resultswere compared with traditional engineering models (AS/NZS1170.2, ESDU) predicting turbulencetransition in non-TC environments to assess their efficacy in TC environments. Results show thatturbulence statistics require about 2 km to reach equilibrium with the underlying terrain, independentof measurement height and upstream terrain. Engineering models tested were found to over predictturbulence intensities in a TC environment. A simple empirical model for estimating the transition ofturbulence intensity following a single change in terrain is proposed.Exploring more broadly how the mean TCBL structure is modified during TC landfall, this thesisalso uses hybrid real-idealised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical simulations toinvestigate the mean TCBL response during landfall. This numerical modelling method combines anidealised spun-up TC and a real world environment to undertake a series of parametric simulationswhere idealised TCs impact coastlines with a range of terrain conditions. These tests systematicallyexplore how sudden changes in terrain (e.g. sea to different land surfaces) influence bulk stormcharacteristics (e.g. TC size, radius of maximum wind), surface wind footprints, and vertical TCwind profiles in different parts of simulated TCs. Generated TC wind profiles are also compared withobservational dropsonde data as well as one existing analytical model. Increased surface roughnessover land was found not to deflect the TC track prior to landfall, but was shown to lower TC intensity.Increased surface roughness was also found to reduce maximum surface level wind speeds by up to70\% within 12 hours after TC landfall. Modelled TCBL profiles over water follow a logarithmic windprofile up to the height of maximum wind speed, which increases with TC radius. TCBL profiles overland also exhibit a logarithmic wind profile but wind speeds decay faster particularly closer to thesurface.

}, keywords = {building resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, severe storms, Simulation modelling, strong winds}, author = {Thomas Kloetzke} }