@article {bnh-8371, title = {Terrestrial Laser Scanning: an operational tool for fuel hazard mapping?}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {5}, year = {2022}, month = {04/2022}, pages = {85}, abstract = {

Fuel hazard estimates are vital for the prediction of fire behaviour and planning fuel treatment activities. Previous literature has highlighted the potential of Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) to be used to assess fuel properties. However, operational uptake of these systems has been limited due to a lack of a sampling approach that balances efficiency and data efficacy. This study aims to assess whether an operational approach utilising Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) to capture fuel information over an area commensurate with current fuel hazard assessment protocols implemented in South-Eastern Australia is feasible. TLS data were captured over various plots in South-Eastern Australia, utilising both low- and high-cost TLS sensors. Results indicate that both scanners provided similar overall representation of the ground, vertical distribution of vegetation and fuel hazard estimates. The analysis of fuel information contained within individual scans clipped to 4 m showed similar results to that of the fully co-registered plot (cover estimates of near-surface vegetation were within 10\%, elevated vegetation within 15\%, and height estimates of near-surface and elevated strata within 0.05 cm). This study recommends that, to capture a plot in an operational environment (balancing efficiency and data completeness), a sufficient number of non-overlapping individual scans can provide reliable estimates of fuel information at the near-surface and elevated strata, without the need for co-registration in the case study environments. The use of TLS within the rigid structure provided by current fuel observation protocols provides incremental benefit to the measurement of fuel hazard. Future research should leverage the full capability of TLS data and combine it with moisture estimates to gain a full realisation of the fuel hazard.

}, keywords = {fuel hazard, fuel structure, occlusion, remote sensing, Risk assessment, TLS}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire5040085}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/4/85}, author = {Luke Wallace and Samuel Hillman and Bryan Hally and Ritu Taneja and Andrew White and James McGlade} } @article {bnh-7995, title = {Local Government Capacity and Land Use Planning for Natural Hazards: A Comparative Evaluation of Australian Local Government Areas}, journal = {Planning Practice \& Research}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, abstract = {

Global and national strategy emphasises land use planning as a key mechanism for disaster risk reduction (DRR). The practice of planning for natural hazards is devolved to local levels, making the capacity of local government critical for achieving strategic DRR goals. This study assessed the capacity of local governments in Australia to plan for natural hazards. Many Local Government Areas (LGAs) had satisfactory or good hazard planning provision, but remoteness, land area and council size influence poor hazard planning provision. Strategic intent for land use planning as a DRR mechanism is unlikely to be successful in many LGAs without first addressing place-based capacity constraints on hazard planning.

}, keywords = {disaster resilience, Local government, plan evaluation, Risk assessment}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02697459.2021.1919431}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02697459.2021.1919431}, author = {James McGregor and Melissa Parsons and Sonya Glavac} } @article {bnh-6576, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation}, number = {535}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report is the third in a series produced for the BNHCRC-funded project Integrating Urban Planning and Natural Hazard Mitigation. The first report constituted a theoretical exploration of integration between urban planning and emergency management supported by an overarching understanding of national and state contexts for these two fields of inquiry and practice, with a focus on the states of Victoria and South Australia. This report generated a preliminary framework used to subsequently interrogate a series of urbanplanning-related recommendations from royal commissions of inquiry and reviews targeting natural-hazard-related events in the past ten years, summarised in the second report.

Building on the preliminary framework of integration previously developed, this current report presents the development of an analytical framework for assessing integration between urban planning and emergency management arrangements and practice and its application in a real case in the state of Victoria. Findings presented in this report serves as the basis for the analysis of the South Australian case of integration in a moment when its planning system is under considerate reforms. A separate report containing findings from this subsequent analysis is to be submitted next.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, mitigation, Natural hazards, Risk assessment, urban planning}, issn = {535}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-5694, title = {Exploratory scenario analysis for disaster risk reduction: Considering alternative pathways in disaster risk assessment}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, abstract = {

Disaster risk is a combination of natural hazards, along with society{\textquoteright}s exposure and vulnerability to them. Therefore, to ensure effective, long-term disaster risk reduction we must consider the dynamics of each of these components and how they change over extended periods due to population, economic and climatic drivers, as well as policy and individual decisions. This paper provides a methodology to capture these factors within exploratory scenarios designed to test the effectiveness of policy responses to reduce disaster losses. The scenarios developed and subsequent analysis of them combine knowledge and insight from stakeholders and experts, and make use of simulation modelling to enable scenarios with qualitative and quantitative elements to be integrated within risk assessment processes and contribute to strategic risk treatments. The methodology was applied to a case-study in Greater Adelaide, Australia, and used to assess how disaster risk for earthquakes, bushfire and coastal inundation changes from 2016 to 2050 under five exploratory scenarios for the future of the region. This analysis can be applied more broadly to consider how future risks impacts on regional viability, and suitability for investment related to the need to gain a better understanding of governmental and organisational exposure to physical risks.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk, Risk assessment, Scenarios, Simulation modelling, Stakeholder engagement}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101230}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919302286}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6661, title = {Foresight for risk {\textendash} using scenarios for strategic risk assessment and management of emergent disaster risk}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, school = {University of Adelaide}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

Disaster impacts around the world are increasing with 2011 and 2017 the largest on record in terms of total losses from disasters in recorded history (USD 444billion and USD 341billion, respectively). The reasons for the increase in losses are multiple. Climate change is increasing the likelihood and intensity of several natural hazard types, and as the world{\textquoteright}s population and economy grow, and humans increasingly develop in areas exposed to natural hazard (e.g. along rivers, and coastal areas), the values exposed are also rapidly increasing. These multiple factors contribute to the complex nature of disaster risk, which is considered to be the combination of natural hazard intensity and extent, exposure (assets, people, other values), and vulnerabilities of the exposed values to the characteristics of the hazards. This can be considered the risk triangle {\textendash} hazard, exposure and vulnerability {\textendash} and each of these factors change into the future impacted by a range of drivers; population and economic change, technology, urbanisation rates, political actions etc.

To reduce the impacts of disasters, risk management and reduction activities are designed and implemented, and are typically underpinned by risk assessments. Risk assessments use qualitative and/or quantitative approaches to attempt to characterise the likelihood and impact of disaster types for a region or organisation. Currently, risk assessments do not capture future changes across all dimensions of risk in a manner that provides insight into the strategic threats and opportunities of emergent disaster risks. Therefore, there is a need for approaches to consider realistic degrees of complexity within the disaster risk system and account for the uncertainty in emergent risk. By capturing this within disaster risk assessments, treatment options can be developed and tested that strategically manage these risks over time.

This research has developed these approaches and provides three key contributions through the use of foresight, primarily scenarios within disaster risk assessment processes, to support effective policy and investment decision making to reduce future impacts. The thesis is organised around three publications, all contributing to the development of a generic framework which integrates foresight into disaster risk management and specific approaches to develop and use scenarios for strategic risk assessment and management of emergent disaster risk. The first paper (Chapter 2) proposes and demonstrates this generic framework for the incorporation of the principles of foresight into risk assessment and management processes. The second paper (Chapter 3) focuses on the design of scenarios to support policy making for disaster risk reduction through several improvements to the methodological approach for constructing relevant and challenging scenarios using an {\textquotedblleft}outcomes of interest{\textquotedblright} framing. The third paper (Chapter 4) outlines and applies an approach for the use of exploratory scenarios within quantitative disaster risk assessment through the development of alternative pathways of disaster risk using scenarios and integrated risk models.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk management, Foresight, modelling, Risk assessment, Scenarios}, url = {https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/122575}, author = {Graeme Riddell} } @article {bnh-6260, title = {Tomorrow{\textquoteright}s disasters {\textendash} Embedding foresight principles into disaster risk assessment and treatment}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, abstract = {

Disaster risk is a complex, uncertain and evolving threat to society which changes based on broad drivers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability such as population, economic and climatic change, along with new technologies and social preferences. It also evolves as a function of decisions of public policy and public/private investment which alters future risk profiles. These factors however are often not captured within disaster risk assessments and explicitly excluded from the UN General Assembly definition of a disaster risk assessment which focuses on the current state of risk. This means that 1) we cannot adequately capture changes in risk and risk assessments are out of date as soon as published but also 2) we cannot show the benefit of proactive risk treatments in our risk assessments. This paper therefore outlines a generic, scale-neutral, framework for integrating foresight {\textendash} thinking about the future {\textendash} into risk assessment methodologies. This is demonstrated by its application to a disaster risk assessment of heatwave risk in Tasmania, Australia, and shows how risk changes across three future scenarios and what proactive treatments could be possible mitigating the identified drivers of future risk.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk management, Foresight, Risk assessment, Risk treatment, Scenarios}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101437}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919305588}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin} }