@article {bnh-5694, title = {Exploratory scenario analysis for disaster risk reduction: Considering alternative pathways in disaster risk assessment}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, abstract = {

Disaster risk is a combination of natural hazards, along with society{\textquoteright}s exposure and vulnerability to them. Therefore, to ensure effective, long-term disaster risk reduction we must consider the dynamics of each of these components and how they change over extended periods due to population, economic and climatic drivers, as well as policy and individual decisions. This paper provides a methodology to capture these factors within exploratory scenarios designed to test the effectiveness of policy responses to reduce disaster losses. The scenarios developed and subsequent analysis of them combine knowledge and insight from stakeholders and experts, and make use of simulation modelling to enable scenarios with qualitative and quantitative elements to be integrated within risk assessment processes and contribute to strategic risk treatments. The methodology was applied to a case-study in Greater Adelaide, Australia, and used to assess how disaster risk for earthquakes, bushfire and coastal inundation changes from 2016 to 2050 under five exploratory scenarios for the future of the region. This analysis can be applied more broadly to consider how future risks impacts on regional viability, and suitability for investment related to the need to gain a better understanding of governmental and organisational exposure to physical risks.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk, Risk assessment, Scenarios, Simulation modelling, Stakeholder engagement}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101230}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919302286}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin} } @conference {bnh-6513, title = {Future risk framework: understanding tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk and what we can do to reduce it}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Unless appropriate mitigation action is taken, disaster risk is likely to increase into the future due to factors such as climate change, population growth, economic development and an ageing population. Consequently, there is a pressing need to think about plausible future risks and how to best mitigate them. This paper presents the future risk framework, which provides a structured, stepwise approach for relevant agencies to explore future risk and what it means for their organisation. The framework consists of four main steps, progressively increasing in levels of insight into future risk, as well as increasing the level of quantification of risk. A key feature of the framework is the incorporation of sense-making and its implementation consists of a combination of participatory approaches and the use of data, information, modelling and analysis. Application of the framework is illustrated for the case study of Greater Adelaide, South Australia, highlighting the approaches used and the level of insight into future risk obtained at each of the four stages. A discussion on the challenges associated with using this insight to mitigate future risk is also provided, suggesting that a collaborative, multidisciplinary, multi-agency approach is needed to effectively mitigate all aspects of future risk, especially those associated with increases in exposure and vulnerability.\ 

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Disaster risk, mitigation, Planning, risk management, risk reduction}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and James Daniell and Sofanit Araya and Graeme Dandy and Jeffrey Newman} }