@article {bnh-8136, title = {Capability Maturity Assessment facilitators guide}, number = {681}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Catastrophic events pose unique challenges and are inevitable. Previous reviews have highlighted gaps in Australia{\textquoteright}s preparedness for catastrophic disasters. Australia has no recent experience of a catastrophe that has truly overwhelmed our society.

An essential component of planning for severe-to-catastrophic disasters is to develop an understanding of capability maturity to deliver the desired effect. Knowledge of capability gaps can then be used to enhance planning and identify alternate sources of capability.

The Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements stated:

Jurisdictional approaches to capacity and capability development have served fire and emergency services well in the past. However, climate and demographic changes are likely to increase the demand on fire and emergency services. The ability of individual jurisdictions to meet this demand at peak times is likely to become increasingly difficult, prompting a need for increased resource sharing. There is a need to consider capabilities nationally, and for a more consistent and connected approach to capability planning across jurisdictions.

The Australian Disaster Preparedness Framework outlines a direction to improve understanding of national capability in the context of severe-to-catastrophic disasters.

Purpose

This guide provides instructions on how to conduct a first-pass capability maturity assessment for a jurisdiction to identify capability gaps and development priorities.

Audience

This guide is directed towards those who may manage or participate in the capability maturity assessment process.

}, keywords = {assessment, Capability, Emergency management, guide, maturity, Policy, Preparedness, tool}, issn = {681}, author = {Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-8015, title = {Developing effective emergency management partnerships in remote north Australian communities - final project report}, number = {670}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Natural hazards in the remote Northern Territory such as cyclones have arguably been managed as best as possible given the typically insubstantial relationships emergency management agencies have with traditional Aboriginal landowners and their wider communities. Preparation and response to the two cyclones, Lam (Feb. 19-20) and Nathan (March 22), that struck east and central Arnhem Land in 2015 are a case in point, prompting practical research into how we can strengthen existing governance arrangements in remote areas to promote and enrich such relationships. This project extends a suite of projects hosted by Charles Darwin University under the Northern Hub of the Bushfires and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, collectively addressing {\textquoteleft}building capacity in north Australian remote communities.

Under the collective theme of developing effective emergency management partnerships, the project focused on two of the several communities in Arnhem Land struck by cyclones Lam and Nathan {\textendash} Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining.\  Indigenous leadership in these communities were again struck by underlying issues effecting cultural authority, including poor consideration of community members as core players holding significant knowledge and other assets valuable to hazard preparation, response and community reconstruction. Whilst Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku residents, for example, greatly appreciated the effective response delivered by EM agencies, the events and their aftermath also brought to the surface issues of lost cultural authority, disempowerment, and disengagement within the community. They keenly sought support for practical local efforts to better understand and address the trend of marginalization and dependence on external agency management. Similarly, in Ramingining, the elders felt a sense of powerlessness and shame to be onlookers for response efforts that they wished to be active participants of.

NAILSMA (Indigenous research and service provider, co-partner in the Northern Hub of the CRC and project manager) was in a position to offer administrative, logistical, mentoring and other support to Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku{\textquoteright}s leadership. Yalu Maringithinyaraw is a local Yolngu organisation with research interests and capability that was the local host for the work.

ARPNet, an Indigenous research network of community based Aboriginal Research practitioners is hosted by RIEL at CDU. ARPNet researchers have worked together and developed an approach that emphasises putting the community first and have also adapted a set of PAR tools (the ARPNet Dilly bag) that they use. The Network trains, mentors and provides administrative support to a growing network of community-based Indigenous researchers, dedicated to relocating local research effort in local hands and improving the operation and outcomes of research for local communities and those that service them.\ \ \ \  \ 

It{\textquoteright}s well recognised that strong similarities exist amongst communities across the NT and indeed the North, but that each place is unique. In this context, the projects at Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining developed relatively independently but highlighted in their collective outcomes important messages for EM agency and others about navigating continuity and difference across Indigenous geographies in their policy making and operations.

It was broadly concluded that government and other agencies need to change the way they do business with Yolngu/Bininj by helping empower traditional owners and clan leaders and improve community engagement to produce more effective service delivery.

Concomitantly, NAILSMA, ARPNet and CDU sought to engage EM leadership across the North and in the BNHCRC community with the research developments as they unfolded in Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku and Ramingining, and to inform the local researchers of the perspectives and logic driving EM organization in relevant jurisdictions. This parallel effort strengthened the strategic need to come together {\textquoteleft}at the table{\textquoteright} to work through practical, fundamental change in the way agencies and communities do business {\textendash} a process anticipated as ongoing.

Recognising the resource-intensive nature of the work, connections were made with related projects to provide mutual support for project activities and partnerships.\  The overall objective of the project was to inform effective EM agency community partnership arrangements in remote communities based on enhanced understanding and empowerment of underlying community governance structures. Lessons learnt from the undertaking of this project were used to develop a {\textquoteleft}protocols framework{\textquoteright} to help inform the development of effective agency-community EM partnerships in remote community locations across northern Australia.

This research has identified a common set of core governance issues (see Findings below) and priorities needing to be acknowledged and addressed to improve implementation of emergency risk management arrangements in remote communities. This work has helped these remote communities, and hopefully others, find voice to more effectively engage in the emergency management conversation, and in partnership building at local and national levels. It has also shown that most agencies involved are open to, if not keenly interested in greater equity with communities in engagement but are uncertain and/or systemically blind to how they may initiate and progress real and effective change in remote EM. There is strong interest from the participating communities to continue their work and engage with other end-users in for example, enhanced local and regional-scale planning; the dissemination of quality, relevant and timely information; building partnership support for community level risk mitigation, disaster management and response. These projects provide a conceptual model and approach for scaling up the project of partnership building to other communities in the NT, WA and Qld, and a basis for understanding the costs and benefits involved in broadscale implementation. Project partners are seeking to progress current projects and offer their experience, skills, tools and relationships developed in these two community endeavors to other community groups seeking to improve the way they, EM and other agencies work together. Project partners believe this to be a good foundation for a regional and national framework approach for EM agency/community engagement and relationship building.

}, keywords = {communities, effective, Emergency management, north australia, partnerships, remote}, issn = {670}, author = {Sithole, B and Otto Bulmaniya Campion and Glenn James and Danny Burton and Maratja Dhamarrandji and Hmalan Hunter-Xenie} } @article {bnh-8133, title = {Embedding non-technical skills as part of core business in emergency management - Final project report Part A}, number = {693}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Non-technical skills are increasingly being seen as a vital part of effective performance in industries where there is a high potential for catastrophic outcomes (such as medicine, maritime, aviation and the military). In these industries non-technical skills have become an integral part of core business and a variety of tools and training programs have been developed to support and enhance their use. Emergency management has been somewhat slower to adopt non-technical skills management programs, although such programs are now starting to emerge. The Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC has been instrumental in facilitating research in non-technical skills over the last 10 years and a reasonable body of work has emerged on non-technical skills. This project draws together much of this body of work by providing an overarching integrative framework and by developing a set of training materials that can be used to train people in emergency management. This set of materials is an important resource that can help the adoption of non-technical skills by agencies so that they come to be seen as core business.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, non-technical skills, teamwork}, issn = {693}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Peter Hayes} } @article {bnh-8236, title = {Implications of climate change for emergency services operations - insights from the literature}, number = {699}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Greenhouse gas emissions to date and existing pledges for emissions reduction from national governments suggest that the world is tracking a medium emissions future at best, and possibly a high emission one. This report consolidates available knowledge of the potential impacts of climate change on key issues that influence the (emergency management services (EMS) in Australia and New Zealand, through a systematic review of the literature (both peer reviewed and grey literature) combined with an analysis of relevant inquiries. It is an output of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project entitled Preparing emergency services for a climate-challenged world.

For the EMS, one of the most immediate and visceral impacts of climate change is increasing frequency and severity of disaster-inducing natural hazards. Yet, it would be a mistake to assume that this is the extent of the challenge: interacting climatic, social, demographic and economic trends will result in transformations in our societies and way of life. For the EMS, the climate change adaptation challenge is more than just {\textquoteleft}more of the same{\textquoteright}. The increasingly significant impacts that climate change is having on the natural and human systems that support livelihoods and wellbeing in Australia and New Zealand present a profound challenge for all communities, businesses and services.

In the decades ahead, Australia is expected to experience increased warming across the whole of the continent with rainfall declines over much of the southern parts of the country very likely. These changes are not unfolding linearly. Already it is clear that the climate has altered over recent decades through a serious of step changes or {\textquoteleft}breaks{\textquoteright}. This means that current rates of change are an unreliable indicator of future rates of change.

Similarly, New Zealand is already registering warming and changing rainfall in some regions. These trends are expected to continue and include increasing average temperatures and more hot days for norther areas, significant shifts in rainfall patterns and more extreme rainfall, and profound increases in the time spent in drought by 2040. Sea level rise is also a major concern for the island nation, with sea level rise around New Zealand projected to be up to 10\% higher than the global average.

For Australia and New Zealand, climate change means more heatwaves, more extreme precipitation events, more bushfire weather, more storms, fewer but more intense cyclones, and more landslides. It also means more compound events and cascading impacts, where multiple extreme events occur simultaneously {\textendash} as was seen in Black Summer, where bushfires, heatwaves and floods were experienced during a long-term drought. Climate change is also increasing the risk that second and third order impacts of disasters, such as a disease outbreak following a flood, themselves cascade into another event of equal or greater severity.

Increasing frequency and severity of climatic hazards are intersecting with growing exposure and changing vulnerability patterns to drive disaster risk. Some of the desirable features of contemporary lifestyles {\textendash} such as high levels of consumption and technology-dependent, centralised systems {\textendash} are further increasing disaster risk. A no-regrets approach to climate change adaptation is\ to build {\textquoteleft}adaptive capacity{\textquoteright}, which is made up of five interlinked domains: assets, flexibility, social organisation, learning, and agency. Building adaptive capacity/reducing vulnerability requires looking beyond direct climate change impacts (e.g. managing heat) to address structural and systemic constraints on the ability of people and ecosystems to adapt to ongoing change, such as social inequalities, low environmental sustainability and poor governance.

Climate change adaptation incorporates a range of objectives and areas of effort. While it necessarily involves {\textquotedblleft}coping{\textquotedblright} at any moment in time, it also extends far beyond just coping to also better {\textquotedblleft}fit{\textquotedblright} emerging conditions and to proactively adjust to, and help positively shape, the future. Criteria of success of a climate change adaptation initiative include effectiveness, efficiency, equity, accounting for externalities, and having an extended time horizon. The inverse of good adaptation is maladaptation: actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate related outcomes, increased vulnerability to climate change, or diminished welfare, now or in the future.

Adaptation faces limits and barriers. As climate change worsens, it is likely impacts will exceed some systems{\textquoteright} and groups{\textquoteright} capacity to manage them. Uneven structural vulnerabilities and engrained issues such as downplaying climate change risks means some groups are continually or regularly unable to cope or adapt well. One of the risks of the {\textquotedblleft}shared responsibility{\textquotedblright} paradigm of disaster risk management in Australia is that {\textquoteleft}communities often are left to manage residual risks shifted towards individuals, whether or not they have the financial, physical, mental, or social capacity to manage them{\textquoteright}. It is often assumed that a lack of climate change information or adaptation knowledge is the main barrier to effective and timely adaptation action. While knowledge and information are important, analysis of barriers to adaptation suggests that institutional barriers (e.g. lack of clear mandate, roles, responsibilities, willingness to act) are often more significant.

One of the enablers of good climate change adaptation is systems thinking {\textendash} appreciating systemic relationships and how to manage them. When it comes to the EMS, a systems-based approach widens our understanding of the sector and the many implications of climate change for it. This report presents two frameworks that are useful for contextualising the EMS in a wider context, identifying how climate change might influence various elements of this system, and where the EMS can direct different types of adaptation strategies.

The academic literature provides some valuable insights into the drivers at work in the EMS context. However, very little research addresses the {\textquotedblleft}question of the future{\textquotedblright} per se and that which does, does not do so in a comprehensive manner that incorporates climate change or challenges the assumption that existing trends will unfold linearly. We therefore need to bring together different insights in order to piece together what the future may entail for the EMS. One useful way to begin this process is to systematically consider the {\textquoteleft}STEEP drivers{\textquoteright} - that is, insights into Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Policy/Political drivers {\textendash} and to then start thinking through how they may interact with climate change. In response to input from the scenarios team (the other part of this project), we have included a sixth category {\textendash} legal {\textendash} into the framework. This report provides examples of the types of changes and uncertainties the EMS may need to consider as it encounters the climate change adaptation undertaking.

We draw on the literature review to present analysis provided to the scenarios process. This includes a summary of biophysical impacts of climate change to 2035, including a plausible (but not predictive) climate hazard event map. We then summarise the likely flow-on effects to 2035 and finally the likely implications of those flow-on effects for water and environment, agriculture and aquaculture, infrastructure, human health and wellbeing, and society in general. Finally, we explore what adaptive capacity might look like under the four plausible futures developed by the scenarios team. In this way, the EMS has a comprehensive picture of what climate change impacts might influence them and what resources they might have to manage them.\ 

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {699}, author = {Lauren Rickards and Adriana Keating} } @article {bnh-8116, title = {Indigenous fire and land management - impact and sustainability}, number = {680}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

Significant work has been done over the life of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre around the issues, opportunities and challenges facing remote Indigenous communities in the face of natural hazards. In the north of Australia, the predominant natural threats are cyclones, wildfire and flood, though the level of threat and impact of any of these differs considerably from region to region. There are other hazards that deeply concern remote community leaders, again, not equally across regions: heat stress and exposure, natural water resource salination and pollution, food security, toxicity and asthma issues from crude community waste burning, infrastructure issues (including road access); and related challenges; local capability to act, governance, resilience, inclusion etc.

The emergency management sector research has focused on technologies, capability, recruitment, and other aspects of EM agency preparation, response and recovery. This project responds to an identified gap in addressing the overall environment of Emergency management in remote areas. . . working together!

It is broadly recognised within Indigenous communities that EM is carried out FOR them, not WITH them. (See detailed discussion of this in the Arnhem Land context in Maypalama et. al.: 2016 and Sithole et. al.: 2021). This has generated increased interest, not only in the future engagement of communities in EM, but in the roles, if any, of EM and other agencies in the resilience of communities who, given structural and resource limitations in EM, are keen (and encouraged) to increase {\textquoteleft}self-reliance{\textquoteright} and take on more responsibilities in this space.

There is now a growing conversation nationally around government agencies and Indigenous communities collaborating more effectively. Much of this conversation has been around the perceived positive impact of traditional knowledge (particularly use of fire) on landscape health, and vulnerability to wildfire, how this may be integrated into rural fire service practice and what the real impact of this might be.

Indigenous leaders and rangers have consistently said and shown that use of fire is not separate from other (holistic) elements of caring for traditional country and that the social and cultural dimensions to land and fire management need to be acknowledged and respected to deliver the desired benefits to country and people (Sithole et. al. 2021: Maypalama et.al. 2019: James et. al. 2019: Burgess et. al. 2009). There are many aspects to this conversation and many perceived potential benefits of working together. They underpin this project{\textquoteright}s focus on partnerships to be able to explore this work together. Thus, the research brief is to:

Method

This research was conducted as a series of community-based discussions and workshops in the Northern Territory and north Queensland. NAILSMA provided resources, logistics, backgrounding and other support to local Indigenous researchers and facilitators who ran the meetings on country. This was a Participatory Action Research (PAR) method, consistent with preceding research on community resilience and partnerships by ARPNet and NAILSMA under the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project Developing effective partnerships in remote north Australian communities: Indigenous research and leadership in Ramingining and Galiwin{\textquoteright}ku. Inherent in this approach are direct benefits to Indigenous researchers and their communities from the process and from longer term outcomes influenced by their research and advocacy with EM agency leaders.

\ Where possible, meeting notes from the NT and Qld discussions were drafted and circulated to respondents and all invitees to the final combined workshop. This was to share what had already been discussed and to help provide focus.

An Agency Reference Group (ARG) (made up predominantly of representatives from QFES, NTES and DFES, but including CDU, Red Cross, NAILSMA and BFNT people) was invited to review and respond to early workshop outcomes, and attend the final workshop. This step was to inform the ARG and Indigenous community invitees to the final workshop with a general view of both Indigenous and agency perspectives on EM priorities and partnership prospects. They were able to kick-off their face-to-face discussions with a degree of prior understanding and focus.

This final, combined workshop was hosted by Djabugay people on their land, facilitated by Barry Hunter, a Djabugay leader and consultant and supported by NAILSMA.

Findings

To inform a Future Research Strategy the research team has organised ideas from the workshop and broader project into:

The work found that gaps are evident within communities, within EM agencies and between them. Summary of the findings includes:

Research Priorities mirror the above gaps and challenges, leading to achieving practical steps in long-term relationship pathways:

Integrating Indigenous fire and land management knowledge with EM operations and systems is not about taking the knowledge, it{\textquoteright}s about building respectful and trusting relationships with Indigenous people to deliver more effective EM together.

Utilisation

This research method (Participatory Action Research) assumes that the Indigenous researchers and their communities are a focal end-user. Participating EM agencies are another key end-user, not only by benefiting from the research in the long run but through face-to-face interactions with community researchers through which opportunities and challenges in developing direct relationships with participating communities can be discussed and solutions progressed firsthand.

In this sense the research is being used as it develops, to benefit communities, relationship building and short-term achievable change. It is also aimed at the national agenda for partnerships with Indigenous land managers, seeking to inform the new Natural Hazards Research Australia[1] about future research priorities and to encourage more discussion, more experience sharing and broader engagement of Indigenous leaders and influential EM agency staff in collaborative workshops hosted by Communities in different jurisdictions on country. This latter aim reflects the success of this project{\textquoteright}s collaborations and use of this model as an ongoing forum to benefit the sector. See for example the Aims and Expectations of the final project workshop below.

\ The summary of next steps:

  1. Relevant EM agencies and community leaders to start or continue working on their relationship and achievable change now.
  2. This report, supported by participating agencies, is presented to the new Natural Hazards Research Australia as a foundation to attract a future fully funded program of collaborative PAR with community researchers and of partnered EM activity.
  3. For the next and future collaborative workshops to be planned and funding secured so they may become annual, focused, Indigenous led pillars of EM sector partnerships.
  4. Conversations continue at 3 levels: community level, transregional and across the multi-agency national conversation. This should include Qld, NT and WA EM agencies connecting more effectively with each other and supporting each other to progress partnership building at North Australia scale.
  5. Indigenous communities and land management groups, their representative organisations and supporters take whatever steps they are able to, to build resilience and capability in EM.
}, keywords = {challenges, Emergency management, fire management, Impact, indigenous, land management, opportunities, partnerships, research strategy, sustainability}, issn = {680}, author = {Glenn James and Danny Burton and Otto Bulmaniya Campion and Barry Hunter and Jimmy Morrison and Ted Gondarra and James Bayung} } @article {bnh-8235, title = {Preparing emergency services for operations in a climate-challenged world - summary report}, number = {689}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

EMS agencies are learning to adapt and be prepared for futures where the changing climate will influence the services they deliver, and how they deliver those services. This research project was designed to help the sector to better prepare for these futures and take action to more quickly adapt as it unfolds, and importantly take action to shape the future in ways that reduce the risks of the hazards ahead.

In 2020 and 2021 this research project, under the stewardship of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, collaborated with a select group of leaders and professionals (a scenario team) from across the Australia and New Zealand EMS. The research project was completed in three integrated parts:

  1. A synthesis of the literature conducted by RMIT on the implications of climate change for emergency services operation
  2. A series of participatory workshops with the project scenario team to develop an explorative and adaptable methodology that is then used to create transformative scenarios (2021-2035)
  3. Develop EMS guidance for using transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world for planning and decision-making in EMS.

By involving key people from across the EMS in the construction and application of the scenarios (the scenario team), this project has helped to build the sector{\textquoteright}s understanding and capabilities in scenario development and in scenario use and application. The project has not only strengthened the scenario thinking capability of the participants across a range of agencies, but secured positive support and endorsement from the scenario team who can continue to share and apply the project methods across the EMS.

A range of documents and resources are available from www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/climatescenarios. These include a workbook, and a research and methodology pack:

Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world {\textendash} workbook:

Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world {\textendash} research and methodology:\ 

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {689}, author = {Stephen Atkinson and Geoff Brown and Russell Fisher and Zoe Fitzgerald and Lauren Rickards and Adriana Keating} } @article {bnh-8193, title = {Principles for enhanced collaboration between land and emergency management agencies and Indigenous peoples - green paper}, number = {701}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Several trends have recently converged to create considerable interest in enhancing collaboration in land and emergency management between Government agencies and First Nations peoples in southern Australia. These trends include: a growing number of grassroots First Nations peoples cultural fire and land management projects; increased media interest in these projects and their role in cultural revitalisation; increased policy focus within land and emergency management agencies on reconciliation, collaboration and partnership with First Nations peoples; as well as a range of findings from 2019-2020 bushfire season inquiries that recommend greater collaboration [e.g., 2]. Considering these trends, it should be noted both that there are multiple examples of successful collaboration or partnership relationships between government land and emergency management agencies and First Nations peoples across Australia and that, nonetheless, such forms of collaboration or partnership are not necessarily desired by all First Nations peoples.

To date there is a relative lack of academic research on this topic, however several successful case studies of the reintroduction of cultural fire management in southern Australia have been documented [3-7]. In 2021, state and territory governments across southern Australia were in various stages of engaging with First Nations peoples, with collaborative fire management policy ranging from whole-of-government reform for First Nations peoples{\textquoteright} self-determination to piecemeal ad hoc policy with limited resource allocation (Appendix 1). A review of academic and grey literature revealed that there is a range of benefits associated with contemporary First Nations peoples{\textquoteright} cultural fire and land management in southern Australia, including cultural, environmental, economic, wildfire management, political/self-determination, social, health and wellbeing benefits (Appendix 2).\  However, there are many barriers to a more widespread application of cultural fire and land management here and in other contexts (Appendix 3). Despite widespread goodwill and optimism, the revival of cultural fire and land management is highly contingent and generally relies upon routine persuasive labor and fragile intercultural diplomacy rather than robust policies and resourcing commitments.

}, keywords = {agencies, collaboration, Emergency management, indigenous, land management, principles}, issn = {701}, author = {Michelle McKemey and Timothy Neale and Oliver Costello} } @article {bnh-8232, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - a guide for using scenarios in the emergency management sector}, number = {708}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

While this Guide references the breadth of ways in which scenarios can be applied in practice, the core purpose of this Guide is to outline one practical way for EMS organisations to start using these scenarios. The Guide outlines a simple, yet powerful way (wind tunnelling) for organisations to test and improve decision making and planning in an uncertain world where the volatility, frequency and magnitude of climate events will challenge the sector like never before. Experimenting with this {\textquotedblleft}wind tunnelling{\textquotedblright} approach and becoming familiar with its use in the context of one{\textquoteright}s own organisation, will provide leaders and decision-makers with the strategic insights required to strengthen and improve their strategy work and support their organisations to more effectively adapt to and influence the future.

This Guide is designed to be used in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook, which includes:

You will also need to access Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology, which includes:\ \ 

All of these documents can be found here.

The Guide draws on the global experience of Reos Partners in developing and applying scenarios in many different contexts, the climate change research conducted for the project by RMIT University, the wisdom and hands-on experience of the sector-wide scenario team and a little bit of collective imagination.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {708}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8233, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - emergency management sector case studies as worked examples}, number = {710}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

The purpose of Emergency management sector case studies as worked examples is to provide a {\textquoteleft}light{\textquoteright} version of a wind-tunneling process using four case examples from the perspective of different Emergency Service agency types:

  1. Urban firefighting services\  \  \  {\textquotedblleft}urban operations{\textquotedblright}
  2. Rural firefighting services\  \  \  \  {\textquotedblleft}rural operation{\textquotedblright}
  3. Land management agencies\  \  \ {\textquotedblleft}land management{\textquotedblright}
  4. State emergency services\  \  \  \  \ {\textquotedblleft}emergency services{\textquotedblright}

Abridged versions of four strategies or plans have been selected as {\textquoteleft}cases{\textquoteright} to illustrate the application of the wind-tunnelling process described in\ Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: a guide for using scenarios in the emergency management sector.

The cases are:

Case 1 {\textendash} Urban Operations: State Emergency Response Plan Extreme Heat Sub-Plan (2017)

Case 2 {\textendash} Rural Operations: Barwon South West Bushfire Management Strategy (2020)

Case 3 {\textendash} Land Management: City of Ipswich Floodplain Management Strategy (2019)

Case 4 {\textendash} Emergency Services: NZ Risk Reduction Strategy (2019-29)

The Case Studies draw on the experience of the sector-wide scenario team in developing the scenarios and have been designed to be used in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook, including:

You will also need to access Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology, which includes:\ \ 

All of these documents can be found\ here.

Note that wind-tunnelling is a rigorous process requiring significant time and resources, and that these Case Studies are a {\textquoteleft}light{\textquoteright} version of a wind-tunnelling process developed for illustrative purposes only in order to show ways in which the worked examples may be tested and improved.

Note also that not every step in each worked example of the case studies has been fully completed. Parts have been deliberately left blank with an invitation for the reader to engage and complete the exercise. Again, what{\textquoteright}s provided is by way of example is for illustrative purposes only.

Finally, none of the results of wind-tunnelling provided here should be seen as a recommendation for any improvement to any of the strategies selected as EMS Case Studies.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {710}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8234, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - research methodology for scenario development}, number = {709}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

This document presents the research methodology behind the development of the scenarios.

It is designed to be read in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook and the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology pack, which includes:

All of these documents can be found\ here.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {709}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-6814, title = {Aboriginal Peoples and the response to the 2019-2020 bushfires}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National University}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

Aboriginal people were among those most affected by the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfires in south-eastern Australia. Yet aside from renewed public interest in cultural burning practices, Aboriginal people have received little attention in the post-bushfire response. In this paper, we describe population geography of Aboriginal peoples affected by the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfire season in New South Wales and Victoria, and the geography of Aboriginal legal rights and interests in land across these states. We find that over 84 000 Indigenous people, or one-quarter of the Indigenous population of NSW and Victoria, live in the bushfire-affected area. While Indigenous people comprise nearly 5.4\% of the 1.55 million people living in fire-affected areas, they are only 2.3\% of the total population of NSW and Victoria. Because Indigenous people in the bushfire-affected area have younger population profiles, more than one-tenth of children in the bushfire-affected area are Indigenous, raising the diverse effects of bushfires on infants and children in particular. Aboriginal people also have a variety of distinct and spatially extensive legal rights and interests in land as First Peoples, including across much of the fire-affected area. Presenting a series of quotations from published accounts, we demonstrate that the Aboriginal experience of the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfires have been different from those of non-Indigenous Australians.

}, keywords = {Aboriginal peoples, bushfires, Emergency management, Natural hazards}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.25911/ 5e7882623186c}, url = {https://caepr.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/aboriginal-peoples-and-response-2019-2020-bushfires}, author = {Bhiamie Williamson and Francis Markham and Jessica Weir} } @article {bnh-6743, title = {Cascading extreme weather beyond our experience: are we ready?}, number = {547}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards\ Management Conference was a little\ different from what you might expect from\ a conference. It started with questions and worked through to a strategic view on\ whether we have the best knowledge to deal\ with the extreme hazards of our future that\ are of a nature and scale beyond our current\ experience.

As natural hazards continue to increase in frequency\ and severity, it is more important than ever to provide\ decision-makers with the evidence, information and\ tools to make the necessary critical decisions. As our\ demographics change, cities expand further into the\ bush and dependence on technology increases, our\ exposure to risk intensifies. The economic, social and\ environmental costs are forecasted to rise in a way that\ is unprecedented and unsustainable. These challenges\ are complex, and we should be wary of quick fix solutions.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC undertakes\ research with a vision that firmly imagines what we can\ do now to improve outcomes in the future. Our research\ explores what is possible and then develops evidence,\ knowledge and tools to help improve outcomes.

But the CRC is not a decision maker. The decision\ makers are governments, response agencies,\ organisations and communities. We all make choices\ and compromises: we make decisions on where to live,\ what to invest in and how prepared to be for the hazards\ we are familiar with and the ones we are yet to face {\textendash} the\ cascading, extreme hazards of our future.

This conference was an opportunity for us to explore the decisions available to us that can be made to reduce\ the impacts of these inevitable natural hazards. We\ drew together a diverse cross-section of industries\ that deal with natural hazards and provided them with\ opportunities to stretch their thinking beyond their\ current experiences. We invited them to contribute to\ the development of pathways\ to take research, knowledge\ and lessons into policy and\ practice.

To navigate the challenges of\ the changing risk profile in\ our region, we must act upon\ the knowledge generated\ through research and through\ the relationships cultivated at\ this conference. We encourage\ decision-makers at all levels\ to make courageous and creative choices to improve\ Australia{\textquoteright}s resilience.

The CRC draws together all of Australia and New\ Zealand{\textquoteright}s fire and emergency service authorities with\ the leading experts across a range of scientific fields\ to explore the causes, consequences and mitigation of\ natural disasters and, ultimately, contribute to a more\ disaster resilient Australia.

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards Management\ Conference was integral to this process and this report\ provides a summary of the discussions to extend our\ collective strategic view into the coming years.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Natural hazards, Planning, scenario}, issn = {547}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-6537, title = {Decision making, team monitoring \& organisational learning in emergency management annual report 2018-2019}, number = {531}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project explores aspects of teamwork, decision making and organisational learning with the aim of better supporting people working in complex strategic operations centres.\  We have adopted a human-centred design method to produce practical tools that are designed around how people use these tools in their workplace.\  As part of this process end-users are embedded into the research process. Bringing end-users into the research process creates a partnership where the researchers contribute their knowledge of literature, theory and the research process and the end-users contribute their requirements, operational knowledge and understanding of the barriers to utilisation and adoption.\  Using the human-centred design method we have created a number of practical tools that are at various stages of development.\  These tools focus on managing teams, how to make better decisions, and how to better utilise the products of research.\  For the tools that have reached (or are close to reaching) the end of their evaluation we have also developed training to support their use by end-users.\  We have seen extensive operational use by end-users of the tools we have developed, with a number of agencies amending their standard operating procedures to facilitate use of the tools. \ In addition, research from the project has formed the basis of several key publications (e.g. the Resilience Expert Advisory Group{\textquoteright}s {\textquotedblleft}A practical guide for crisis decision making.{\textquotedblright}). Into the future we will be continuing to develop new tools to support teamwork, decision making and organisational learning and expect to see further utilisation by agencies both in Australia and worldwide.

}, keywords = {Decision making, education, Emergency management, teams}, issn = {531}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Peter Hayes and Heather Stuart} } @article {bnh-7227, title = {Diversity and inclusion framework for emergency management policy and practice}, number = {602}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Emergency Management Sector (EMS) is made up of diverse organisations, and its scope of activity spans the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR) spectrum for a wide variety of hazards. This requires an array of activities that contribute to the safety and wellbeing of communities and those within their organisations. The EMS is also undergoing dynamic change, of which human diversity is one key element. The sector has recognised that it needs to better reflect the communities it works with, and that it has {\textquoteleft}unacceptably low levels of diversity{\textquoteright} (National Strategy for Disaster Resilience, COAG, 2011). Inclusion is seen as an essential part of this process, but policy, management and practice need further development if the sector is to achieve functioning inclusive organisations who reflect the diverse communities they serve.

Diversity and inclusion (D\&I) are different but deeply entwined. Diversity can be seen as a variety of people who have different and unique characteristics. This difference can be determined by aspects such as their cultural or social background, their age, the way they think, their physical attributes or their gender or a combination of these. Increasing diversity creates a different dynamic, and inclusion is the action that is undertaken to manage this change. It is also the tool that ensures that the increased diversity is effective in serving the organisational or community needs, and does not create a risk for the community or the organisation.\ 

Although the nature and measurement of diversity is being better recognised and understood, the management and measurement of inclusion is still evolving. This is an area of innovation where not everything will work. New approaches need to be developed and adapted to suit the myriad of different contexts throughout the sector. This has resulted in numerous D\&I programs at sectoral and organisational levels. However, the effectiveness of past and present programs, and what constitutes good management and measurement, is still emerging (Young et al., 2018).\ \ 

There is often tension between the core work of EMS organisations, as the development of D\&I is often seen as a secondary activity that is a cost to the workforce rather than an investment in the future workforce. This tension has been exacerbated by deeply entrenched cultural and institutional factors. This framework aims to provide a basis for practitioners to address these issues through a strength-based approach, which builds upon current practice and expertise in the sector.\ 

The framework has been developed in response to needs that were identified in collaboration with practitioners across the sector, which included:

The framework has been developed, tested and refined in collaboration with emergency management experts, and draws on the following reports from the project:

Diversity and inclusion is not a simple problem with easy solutions. It is a dynamic situation that requires ongoing management. This means that standard notions of success and failure can be problematic, which is why this framework focuses on what has been found to be effective.\ 

As the EMS is diverse in terms of organisational composition, capability and context, what is possible and {\textquoteleft}doable{\textquoteright} will be different for each organisation. To account for this, this framework is deliberately not prescriptive. Its aim is to support and guide practitioners to develop and integrate D\&I practice, so that it becomes accepted as part of the day-to-day activities and {\textquoteleft}how things are done{\textquoteright}.\ 

This framework will be supported by two further documents that will focus on management and measurement practices.

}, keywords = {diversity and inclusion, Emergency management, framework, Policy, practice}, issn = {602}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-8140, title = {Diversity and inclusion: towards a better understanding of management and measurement - policy paper}, number = {696}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Having effective diversity and inclusion (D\&I) in emergency management organisations (EMOs) can improve their internal\ performance, and contribute to organisational and community capacities to manage disaster risk and resilience building. A\ diverse workforce provides a broad range of perspectives, experiences and skills. An inclusively-managed diverse workforce\ can support better decision making. It can also support better management of the increasingly unfamiliar risks that\ society is experiencing. Inclusion is also central to building productive working relationships and trust with the community. However, the benefits of D\&I are poorly understood, and are often overlooked because they are hard to measure and\ account for.

This paper summarises the main concepts, findings and the framework that has been developed to support more effective\ management and measurement of D\&I in EMOs.

Key findings in relation to D\&I in the emergency management sector (EMS) are:

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity, Emergency management, inclusion, management, measurement, strength}, issn = {696}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-7801, title = {Improving decision making, teamwork and organisational learning in emergency management {\textendash} final project report}, number = {641}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Background: Each year Australian emergency management organisations coordinate the response to thousands of emergency events. While a successful outcome is achieved in the vast majority of these events, notable and ongoing concerns are being raised as to how well some of the emergency management teams have functioned.\  Often the problems are not based on technical skills (such as the use of equipment) but on the non-technical skills, such as: communication, coordination, situation awareness, and decision making. In addition, skills such as creativity and divergent thinking may be important in helping people to manage ever more complex emergencies. This project seeks to develop simple practical tools that can help people to better manage their teamwork, improve their decision making and develop more creative solutions.\  In addition to developing these tools this project also considers how organisations utilise the outcomes of research.\  Application of research in support of organisational learning is critical not just for organisational growth, competitiveness and sustainability but also for wide-scale industry development, community and economic well-being. However, maximising organisational learning from research often falls short. As part of this project we will seek to develop a tool to help agencies to utilise research more effectively.

Method: The tools were developed using a human-centred design approach. This approach placed the end-user very much at the heart of the development process so that the tools were effectively co-created with end-users. Embedding end-users into the research and design process has two goals, 1) to produce effective tools that are designed around the end-user and 2) to create the right context for the adoption of the tools by emergency management agencies. In this way we have brought utilisation to the centre of the project, embedding it within the research process so that utilisation informs and is informed by the research from the beginning of the project.

Research and tool development: A number of tools were developed to help people to better manage their teamwork and decision making. These tools include:

In addition to creating tools that help better manage teams and make more effective decisions, members of the project team have also developed methods to help people to act more creatively during operations (such as stretch thinking loops for team decision making). To help end-users to diagnose their capacity to utilise research a self-assessment tool was developed (known as the self-assessment research utilisation maturity matrix or RUMM). This tool can be used by practitioners to identify steps needed to move along the path towards research implementation.

Utilisation: These tools have now seen excellent utilisation by emergency management agencies in Australia and have attracted growing interest from international partners in the UK and Spain.\  The teamwork tools have been used to help manage both simulated and real-life emergencies; to conduct debriefs and after-action reviews; to design response plans; and to evaluate emergency management arrangements. The research utilisation maturity matrix (RUMM) has been used to inform future research planning, to assess existing capability in research utilisation and to inform future policy decisions.\  The tools that we have created have been included in a number of key industry publications (such as AFAC Lessons Management Handbook) and a number of agencies have changed their standard operating procedures to facilitate use of the tools.

Conclusion and next steps: This project has developed a number of products that can help people in emergency management to better manage non-technical skills, improve creativity and assess their ability to utilise the products of research.\  The next steps are to help agencies to better embed these tools so that they become part of normal everyday business.

}, keywords = {Decision making, Emergency management, organisational learning, teamwork}, issn = {641}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Peter Hastings and Heather Stuart} } @book {bnh-6848, title = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {368}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1}, address = {London}, abstract = {

This book explores policy, legal, and practice implications regarding the emerging field of disaster justice, using case studies of floods, bushfires, heatwaves, and earthquakes in Australia and Southern and South-east Asia. It reveals geographic locational and social disadvantage and structural inequities that lead to increased risk and vulnerability to disaster, and which impact ability to recover post-disaster.\  Written by multidisciplinary disaster researchers, the book addresses all stages of the disaster management cycle, demonstrating or recommending just approaches to preparation, response and recovery. It notably reveals how procedural, distributional and interactional aspects of justice enhance resilience, and offers a cutting edge analysis of disaster justice for managers, policy makers, researchers in justice, climate change or emergency management.

}, keywords = {disaster justice, Emergency management, environmental sociology, framework, Natural hazards, policies}, isbn = {978-981-15-0466-2}, issn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2}, url = {https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9789811504655$\#$aboutBook}, author = {Anna Lukasiewicz and Claudia Baldwin} } @article {bnh-6733, title = {Navigating authority and legitimacy when {\textquoteleft}outsider{\textquoteright} volunteers co-produce emergency management services}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, abstract = {

This paper examines the thorny issue of authority and legitimacy in relation to {\textquoteleft}outsider{\textquoteright} emergency volunteering within the context of the community resilience policy agenda. Outsider emergency volunteering is any volunteering that: (a) aims to assist communities in any aspect of disaster preparedness, response, relief and recovery, and (b) is not registered with or under the direction of a formally recognised emergency management organisation (EMO). Hence, it does not have clear grounds to establish its authority and legitimacy within the formal authorising environment of the emergency management sector. The paper draws on co-production theory to examine how three important challenges for establishing authority and legitimacy were navigated in four Australian cases of co-production involving outsider emergency volunteering. Given the rise of resilience in disaster policy and the changing nature of volunteering in modern society, the very formalised and defined foundations of authority and legitimacy in emergency management will need to soften and expand to become more networked and distributed. The four cases described here shed some light on what softer and expanded foundations for authority and legitimacy can look like and the processes that can support them in the emergency management context.

}, keywords = {Australia, authority, co-production, Emergency management, legitimacy, Unaffiliated emergency volunteering}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2020.1727829}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2020.1727829}, author = {Blythe McLennan and J Whittaker and Tarn Kruger and John Handmer} } @article {bnh-7700, title = {Non-technical skills for emergency incident management teams: A literature review}, journal = {Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, abstract = {

Every year, incident management teams (IMTs) coordinate the response to hundreds of emergency events across Australasia. Larger scale emergencies such as a storms, floods, wildfires, oil spills and chemical explosions can place a lot of pressure on an IMT. Non-technical skills play a central role in the performance of these teams. This article reviewed the broader non-technical skills (NTS) literature before focusing on the NTS required for emergency management. It was found that most NTS frameworks share four to five common skill categories, although there were greater differences at the element and behavioural marker level. A variety of issues were identified in the literature that highlight that emergency management is very different from other domains where NTS systems have been developed. The literature on NTS in conjunction with this set of issues was used to develop a proposed NTS framework for emergency IMTs. This framework comprises 7 skill categories (i.e. communication, coordination, cooperation, decision-making, situation awareness, leadership and coping, stress and fatigue management). The 7 skills can be further delineated into 16 elements and 44 behavioural markers. The framework provides a prototype that can form the basis for further research in this area.

}, keywords = {decision-making, Emergency management, incident management, non-technical skills, teams, teamwork}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12341}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-5973.12341}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Philip Butler and Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-7500, title = {Professionalism: certification for emergency management leaders}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {56-60}, abstract = {

Disastrous bushfires in the summer of 2019{\textendash}2020 in Australia were part of a series of climate-related emergency events previously unimagined. Australia, coming out of its worst-recorded drought, has been hit by long-running bushfires, floods, coastal erosion and the global COVID-19 pandemic. To combat concurrent and compounding events like these, emergency services personnel and police, including paid and volunteer-led teams, had to adapt their response and recovery activities. For the first time, these activities were supported by a large Australian Defence Force contingent. Many emergency management teams were also supplemented by international colleagues, thus forming integrated and multi-agency teams. In such response environments, team leaders applied learning and experience they had developed in operational settings to be effective in response and recovery efforts. The human capacities of leaders are different and are founded on recruiting, cultural background, training, education and experiential opportunities. Recognising each person{\textquoteright}s leadership capacity can be difficult and can reduce the efficiency of response and recovery. This paper examines current options and arrangements that exist through national and international certification systems. The purpose is to establish a simple and recognisable understanding of emergency managers{\textquoteright} skills. This paper draws from research that examines the human-capacity lessons from past events that develop future emergency managers.

}, keywords = {certification, Emergency management, leaders, professionalism}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2020-professionalism-certification-for-emergency-management-leaders/}, author = {Russell Dippy} } @inbook {bnh-6646, title = {Public Policy and Disaster Justice}, booktitle = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {51-71}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1st}, chapter = {3}, address = {Singapore}, abstract = {

Issues of unequal vulnerability to disasters, and uneven access to assistance and decision making, are core challenges in disaster policy, but not generally explored from a justice perspective. This chapter considers justice through six standard lenses of public policy: (1) whether justice-relevant decisions are a matter for public policy or more value-rich politics; (2) if the former, where in the policy process they can be attended to; (3) which entity has responsibility over the matter; (4) in addition to formal responsibilities, what actors outside of government contribute to justice or injustices; (5) whether justice is a matter of disaster policy, or another policy sector; and (6) whether enhancement of existing policies can provide remedy, or new mechanisms are needed.

}, keywords = {disasters, Emergency management, Justice, Public policy}, isbn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_3}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_3}, author = {Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-6773, title = {Staying on task: a tool to help state and regional-level emergency management teams}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, pages = {38-44}, abstract = {

The demands on teams coordinating emergency management at state and regional levels can be considerable. These teams may be supporting multiple incidents and are prioritising resources, liaising with other organisations and managing public interests. Also, during large-scale emergencies, teams will be working under conditions of stress and fatigue, which are known to impair cognitive processes such as memory and decision-making. This paper describes a checklist-based cognitive aid that can be used by teams to help retain their focus on tasks that need to be completed. This checklist is based on a hierarchical task analysis that was developed with emergency management agencies using observations, subject matter expert advice and prototype piloting. The checklist is a simple, straightforward set of prompts that help managers keep track of operational tasks and, thus, helps to reduce mental workload and improve cognition. The checklist can be used as a prompt to help emergency managers address the tasks they have oversight for, as a training and development resource, and as a diagnostic and monitoring tool to assess how well a control centre is operating. This can be assessed in real time and through the after-action review process. The checklist is a flexible tool that can help people better manage emergency response activities.

}, keywords = {decision-making, Emergency management, teams}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-january-2020-staying-on-task-a-tool-to-help-state-and-regional-level-emergency-management-teams/}, author = {Peter Hayes and Christopher Bearman and Mark Thomason and Peter A. Bremner} } @article {bnh-6566, title = {Using the human centred design method to develop tools for non-technical skills in emergency management}, number = {532}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Human Centred Design (HCD) is a widely used design process that seeks to ensure that products are designed to efficiently and effectively support the needs of the human user.\  At the heart of the HCD process is an iterative cycle of development and testing in conjunction with end-users.\  This places the humans who play such a central role in emergency management at the centre of the design activity.\  The BNHCRC project: team monitoring, decision making and organisational learning has used the human centred design approach to develop a number of tools that support human decision making and team management during emergencies.\  This report introduces the human centred design process and shows how it was used to develop the decision making and team management tools.

}, keywords = {Decision making, education, Emergency management, human centred design, team management}, issn = {532}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin} } @conference {bnh-6505, title = {Are we future ready? It depends on who you ask }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The key problem faced in preparing for future disasters is a problem of imagination. It is a problem embedded in the stories we tell about what we imagine might happen. These stories tend to focus on a {\textquoteleft}bell curve{\textquoteright} distribution of disaster events, combining our own lived experience with the stories of others. This combination of personal experiences and the stories of others forms the basis of our perception of risk and vulnerability. This is a dynamic and ongoing process. The story is never finished, nor is it complete, as we selectively incorporate or reject information depending on its source, content and compatibility with the existing narrative.

The existing narrative for natural hazard management incorporates perceptions of probability; generally, {\textquoteleft}disaster consequences will tend to hover close to the mean and every now and then we will be tested{\textquoteright}. As the volume of hazards grows the narrative is more deeply imbued with concepts of coping and {\textquoteleft}lessons learned{\textquoteright}. If certain narratives are allowed to flourish uncontested within an organisation an ironic consequence can be a failure of imagination and coping. A failure to be future ready.

This paper is a discussion about the extent to which we{\textquoteright}re future ready using the Johari window as a heuristic and reflecting on a case study from Indonesia.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, future disasters, risk management, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Sutton, S and Paton, Douglas and Burgelt , Petra T. and Ella Meilianda and Saut Sagala} } @article {bnh-5418, title = {Challenges for prescribed fire management in Australia{\textquoteright}s fire-prone rangelands {\textendash} the example of the Northern Territory}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, abstract = {

Northern Australia comprises by far the most fire-prone-half of a fiery continent, where fire frequencies range from annual in the tropical savannas to periodic very-extensive fire events following above-rainfall conditions in the central Australian rangelands. As illustration of the challenges facing effective fire management in Australia{\textquoteright}s 5.7 {\texttimes} 106 km2\ rangelands, we examine the status of contemporary prescribed burning activities in the Northern Territory, a 1.4 {\texttimes} 106 km2, very sparsely settled (0.18 persons km-2) jurisdiction characterised by vast flammable landscapes, few barriers to fire-spread, predominantly anthropogenic ignitions, and limited institutional resources and capacity. Unsurprisingly, prescribed-fire management is shown to be restricted to specific locales. For more effective, landscape-scale fire management, potential solutions include engagement with dispersed remote communities and incorporation of Indigenous Ranger Groups into the fire-management network, and building on the success of savanna-burning greenhouse gas emission projects as an example for incentivising landscape fire and emergency management services generally. Recently, significant steps have been taken towards implementing formal regional fire-management planning processes involving inclusive community-stakeholder engagement, and the setting of clearly defined time-constrained objectives and targets.

}, keywords = {central Australia, Emergency management, fire regime, Indigenous rangers, remote communities, risk management, savannas}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18127}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18127?ct=t(EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2_27_2019_23_3)\&mc_cid=676faec148\&mc_eid=73e0665bda}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Andrew C. Edwards and Kamaljit Sangha and Yates, Cameron P. and Mark Gardener} } @article {bnh-5720, title = {Challenges, Opportunities, and Pitfalls for Global Coupled Hydrologic-Hydraulic Modeling of Floods}, journal = {Water Resources Research}, volume = {55}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Flood modeling at the regional to global scale is a key requirement for equitable emergency and land management. Coupled hydrological-hydraulic models are at the core of flood forecasting and risk assessment models. Nevertheless, each model is subject to uncertainties from different sources (e.g., model structure, parameters, and inputs). Understanding how uncertainties propagate through the modeling cascade is essential to invest in data collection, increase flood modeling accuracy, and comprehensively communicate modeling results to end users. This study used a numerical experiment to quantify the propagation of errors when coupling hydrological and hydraulic models for multiyear flood event modeling in a large basin, with large morphological and hydrological variability. A coupled modeling chain consisting of the hydrological model Hydrologiska Byr{\r a}ns Vattenbalansavdelning and the hydraulic model LISFLOOD-FP was used for the prediction of floodplain inundation in the Murray Darling Basin (Australia), from 2006 to 2012. The impacts of discrepancies between simulated and measured flow hydrographs on the predicted inundation patterns were analyzed by moving from small upstream catchments to large lowland catchments. The numerical experiment was able to identify areas requiring tailored modeling solutions or data collection. Moreover, this study highlighted the high sensitivity of inundation volume and extent prediction to uncertainties in flood peak values and explored challenges in time-continuous modeling. Accurate flood peak predictions, knowledge of critical morphological features, and an event-based modeling approach were outlined as pragmatic solutions for more accurate prediction of large-scale spatiotemporal patterns of flood dynamics, particularly in the presence of low-accuracy elevation data.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, land management, modelling}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024289}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018WR024289}, author = {Stefania Grimaldi and Guy Schumann and Ashkan Shokri and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @conference {bnh-6525, title = {Climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Climate change is recurrently cited as the most important perceived challenge of this century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014; Watts et al. 2017). Yet, the perceptions of the risk of climate change, its societal impacts, ramifications and particularly the solutions needed to address it require further investigation.

This study profiles regional emergency and disaster management professional{\textquoteright}s perceptions of climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania. We aimed to examine what evidence exists to support decision making and profile the nature, type and potential human impact of climate change as an emerging disaster risk in Australia and Oceania.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Decision making, disaster, Emergency management}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Cuthbertson, Joseph} } @article {bnh-6311, title = {Community benefits of roof upgrades}, number = {528}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Legacy houses (Houses built Pre-1982) are at risk of damage from wind loads due to the often inadequate roof hold down provided by connection details. Improving wind resistance through replacing roof connections or retrofitting the existing structure can greatly improve building performance and community safety. The Queensland Government Household Resilience Program (HRP) provides funding to help eligible home owners improve the resilience of their homes against cyclones. This program developed with advice from the Cyclone Testing Station is managed by the Queensland Department of Housing \& Public Works (QDPWH) and commenced in late 2018.

}, keywords = {community resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, engineering, resilience, roof, Severe Weather}, issn = {528}, author = {Korah Parackal and John Ginger and David Henderson and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-6034, title = {Community engagement techniques toolkit}, number = {516}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This toolkit builds on National Strategy for Disaster Resilience: Community Engagement Framework Handbook 6 (Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience, 2013) by providing details of:

The model travels through a series of levels of community engagement planning and implementation, which helps practitioners to map and undertake the best community engagement approach for a specific community.

The base articles used to build the suite of techniques were found during a systematic literature review of preparedness activity. A systematic literature review is a rigorous, procedural approach to drawing out all available literature on a topic.\  The value of a systematic literature review is that it provides a wide ranging view of the accessible knowledge around a topic. Articles were included based on whether they measured impact of engagement techniques (such as preparedness levels, lives saved), and the quality of the research. The full list of articles can be found in the references section.

}, keywords = {community engagement, Emergency management, Evaluation, monitoring}, issn = {516}, author = {Barbara Ryan and Kim Johnston and Maureen Taylor} } @article {bnh-6307, title = {Demographic profiling: Queensland floods 2010-11 Brisbane River catchment area case study}, number = {527}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Queensland Flood 2010-11 flood-affected Brisbane River catchment local government areas (LGAs):\ 

The profiling utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source (in line with project\ methodology) as well as official government reports for flood-related statistics.\ In presenting this information, we note that our demographic rofiling captures\ the overall population-level trends for these areas, which are affected by factors\ including migration and population growth. This enables us to present a baseline\ of the overall socioeconomic characteristics and conditions of these areas both\ prior to (2006) and post the floods (2011, 2016).\ This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be\ released for each of the project case studies.

}, keywords = {Brisbane river, economic impact, Emergency management, flood safety, Floods, optimisation, risk analysis}, issn = {527}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6293, title = {Demographic profiling: Western Australia Toodyay bushfires 2009 case study}, number = {526}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Shire of Toodyay, a small town in the Western Australian Wheatbelt region that was devastated by bushfires on 29 December 2009.

The profiling utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source (in line with project methodology), at either a SA2 or local government area (LGA) level, depending on available information. It also relies on official government reports for fire related statistics.

In presenting this information, we note that our demographic profiling captures the overall population-level trends, which are affected by factors including migration and population growth. This enables us to present a baseline of the overall socioeconomic characteristics and conditions of Toodyay both prior to (2006) and post the fires (2011, 2016).

This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be released for each of the project case studies.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, optimisation, post-disaster, recovery, risk analysis}, issn = {526}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6237, title = {Disaggregation of JASMIN soil moisture product to 1KM resolution}, number = {521}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire intensity, spread rate, and ignition are very sensitive to fuel dryness which in turn is strongly linked to soil moisture deficit. Though the value of soil moisture deficit in predicting fire danger has been long established, very few fire danger rating systems employ a comprehensive methodology to estimate it. Most such fire danger rating systems use very simple empirical water balance models which are found to have errors. The Bureau of Meteorology has recently developed a prototype, highresolution, land surface modelling based, state-of-the-art soil moisture analysis for Australia. The product, called Joint United Kingdom Land Environment Simulator (JULES) based Australian Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN), has a spatial resolution of 5 km at hourly timesteps. However, applications like fire danger mapping may require soil moisture information at higher spatial resolution due to the large spatial variability of soil moisture in the landscape. We focus on some of the research carried out to downscale the JASMIN product from 5 km to 1 km spatial resolution. We discuss the application of three downscaling algorithms: two regression-based methods and one with a theoretical basis. The three methods applied are based on the well-known surface temperature {\textendash} vegetation index space. We present an overview of the application of each method, along with an evaluation and comparison against each other and against ground-based soil moisture observations. Results from comparison with ground-based soil moisture measurements indicate that there is no significant degradation of the bias in the three methods, when going into higher spatial resolutions. However, the regression methods, in general, fail to capture the observed temporal variability. The theoretical based method, on the other hand, provides a temporal correlation of 0.81 and captures the skill of the parent JASMIN product.

}, keywords = {dryness, Emergency management, JASMIN, resolution, Soil moisture}, issn = {521}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {bnh-5414, title = {Diversity and Inclusion: Building Strength and Capability- Annual Report 2018}, number = {453}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, pages = {16}, type = {Report}, keywords = {diversity, Emergency management, inclusion}, author = {Celeste Young} } @conference {bnh-6385, title = {Earthquake Management Logistics for York, WA, Pre and Post Mitigation}, booktitle = {Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2019 Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Newcastle}, abstract = {

Rare Australian earthquake events can cause extensive damage and present significant logistical challenges for emergency management agencies and local governments. Evidence of this can be seen from recent earthquake events that include the 2010 Kalgoorlie earthquake and the 1989 Newcastle earthquake of 30 years ago. Emergency managers do not experience damaging earthquakes on the same regular basis as storms, floods, and bushfires and therefore don{\textquoteright}t always fully understand the consequences they may face. Scenario modelling can provide insights to inform response and recovery by emergency management and recovery agencies as well as demonstrate how these impacts can be moderated by the retrofit of the most vulnerable building types.

The Shire of York is partnering with the WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), the University of Adelaide and Geoscience Australia in a collaborative project that explores the current earthquake risk in the heritage town of York, Western Australia, and how the risk could be moderated through targeted retrofit. The project forms part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre project {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright}. This paper describes the approach taken and the predicted consequences modelled for a range of credible earthquake scenarios. Significantly, based on the recommendations from a stakeholder workshop in York on the 9thAugust 2018, it is also assessing how these consequences would be moderated in future decades through two rates of retrofit uptake in the town. This work is informing emergency management planning by DFES and the Shire of York. It is also illustrating the benefits of targeted community level retrofit to address the risk posed by the community building types most vulnerable to earthquakes.

}, keywords = {earthquake, Emergency management, modelling, retrofit, senario}, url = {https://aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/70-Hyeuk-Ryu.pdf}, author = {Hyeuk Ryu and Mark Edwards and Martin Wehner and Stephen Gray and Michael Griffith and Jaroslav Vaculik and Neil Corby and Trevor Allen} } @article {bnh-5929, title = {Economics of natural hazards annual report 2018-2019}, number = {512}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Our project aims to provide information on the economic, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards (tangible and intangible), in order to help hazard managers in their decision making. We investigate the impacts of hazard mitigation on intangible (non-market) values, to shed light on the real (total) costs and benefits of natural hazards.

Our main focus is on developing tools and materials that will provide natural hazards managers with information on the value of mitigation and how intangible (non-market) values affect the costs and benefits of mitigation activities.
Our project will have 4 key outcomes:

  1. Provide an online platform for the intangible values database (called the Value Tool for Natural Hazards). The tool will be updated and maintained beyond the project so that managers can easily integrate intangible values in their analyses.
  2. Fill major knowledge gaps identified in the literature on intangible values that are affected by the management of natural hazards and improve the value tool with this new knowledge.
  3. Develop a Quick Economic Analysis Tool for the evaluation of the (tangible and intangible) costs and benefits of mitigation options that enables managers to conduct economic analyses in weeks rather than months.
  4. Create a Free Online Course on the application of economics to the assessment of natural hazard management options.

This year, we have progressed in the 4 outcomes outlined above:

  1. A website has been created for the Value Tool. Both the database and the guidelines can now be downloaded from http://valuetoolnaturalhazards.com. As per the agreement between UWA and BNHCRC, the tool will be freely accessible to end-users and external users. The website also includes the relevant disclaimer information and instructions that users of the tool must agree to comply with.
  2. A survey instrument has been designed and road-tested in a focus group for the original non-market valuation study. The next step in this process will be to test the survey in the Shire of York (WA), where we will estimate non-market values associated with cultural heritage and mental health.
  3. The draft (Beta) version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) has been completed. QEAT is currently being improved to include an easy-to-use sensitivity analysis, to be able to perform the analysis of several management options concurrently and to include a summary dashboard where all results are summarised in an easy-to-read manner. These additions are key aspects that our end-users have mentioned in the past as important to include in a tool such as this one. The Tool now needs to be validated with case studies.
  4. Equipment for creating the online videos is being purchased (e.g. green screen for background, microphone and tripod for computer). Filming of the videos will commence in July 2019.

The utilisation outputs from our project this year involved the development and distribution of tools that help natural hazard managers integration intangible (non-market) values in their decision making. The Value Tool for Natural Hazards and the accompanying guidelines are now available online and can be easily downloaded by end-users of the BNHCRC or other organisations. The Beta version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) is in the process of being improved to include key aspects that were highlighted by end-users as important to include in a tool as this one.

This year there were 4 publications from the project: 3 peer-reviewed and one non-peer reviewed (see Project Publications 2018-2019 section below).

}, keywords = {Bushfire, cost-effective, cyclone, earthquake, economics, Emergency management, Flood, Natural hazards, risk management}, issn = {512}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-5773, title = {Emergency volunteering 2030: Views from the community sector}, number = {500}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report presents findings from an on-line, qualitative survey of 48 community sector representatives from across the states of Australia. The purpose of the survey was to find out more about the community sector in relation to emergency volunteering and to elicit the views of key community sector representatives about changes in the volunteering landscape that have occurred in the past and are occurring now; and about their visions for a preferred future for community sector volunteering that supports communities before, during and after emergency events.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, emergency volunteering, volunteers}, issn = {500}, author = {Tarn Kruger and Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-6126, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road infrastructure annual report 2018-2019}, number = {519}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The overarching aim of the proposed second stage of the project is to work closely with key stakeholders to implement the methodologies that have been developed for vulnerability modelling of road structures to priorities vulnerable structures for improvements, to quantify the cost of reconstruction and/or cost of hardening of structures, and to integrate community resilience considerations into the decision-making process.

During the last financial year, the research team has published seven peer-reviewed journal papers (5 Scimago Q1 journal papers), 13 national/international conferences papers and one technical report, while there are eight journal papers under review now.

The major research activities include the generic analysis of bridges in terms of structural analysis, community impact model for decision making on strengthening, floodway inspection methodology, and strengthening options for different hazard types and levels. A floodway inspection and maintenance framework were also developed to guide the future inspection and maintenance of those bridges, especially for those have undergone hazard events.

Four workshops and four meetings were held during the second year of Stage 2 of the project. Two workshops were held at RMIT University to discuss with end users and colleagues regarding the feedback and comments of the project progresses. One workshop was held at the University of Southern Queensland and the Queensland University of Technology, respectively. Feedbacks from these end users have largely benefited the research progress.

Four major utilization activities have been identified and are in progress.

Our next step is to focus on the remaining milestones and engaging with those end users to tailor the research direction and fulfill their urgent research needs. The final project completion report will be also submitted then for the review of BNH CRC.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, engineering, infrastructure resilience}, issn = {519}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Lihai Zhang and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @conference {bnh-6504, title = {Experiences with the global impacts of climate change}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Textbox Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency managers are in the grips of climate change. The climate is changing in Canberra, where I work. In turn that is affecting the spectrum of incidents that we as emergency managers are responding to. This involves the community through the risks to the community (that we seek to mitigate).

I seek to explore this through my direct experiences on the job: as an emergency manager, as a technical expert and as a research scientist. Our climate in Canberra has changed, and has changed dramatically, starting with the 1997 El Ni{\~n}o event when our climate started following what is termed the {\textquotedblleft}Hockey Stick Curve{\textquotedblright} (Mann et al, 1999). A typical summer now involves: extreme heat, extreme atmospheric moisture, extreme storms and extreme raised dust. By using the hockey stick concept it is clear that this is not the {\textquotedblleft}New Norm{\textquotedblright}, rather that the situation may deteriorate quickly.

Looking more widely, across the nation, we have seen challenging wildfire outbreaks in Queensland, Tasmania (twice) and other areas. My work as a fire behaviour analyst (FBAN) makes it clear that our prior expectations are losing their validity. What do we replace them with? Looking globally, I have deployed to Canada as an FBAN and I am collaborating as part of a global atmospheric research project looking at the growing impact of fire thunderstorms (pyroCbs). This required monitoring of smoke impact on the Greenland Ice Cap, and its potential impacts. I was in the IMT for two of the world{\textquoteright}s most significant pyroCb events. We are seeing this new wildfire problem occur in new regions, starting with Australia in 2001, but now expanding rapidly every year.

Staggering changes, devastating impacts and massive challenges - are we adapting correctly? I offer some take-home messages to help, covering observing, sharing, preparing and adapting.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, Fire behaviour, fire impacts, fire management, global impact, Wildfire}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Rick McRae} } @article {bnh-6337, title = {Exploring ISO31000 Risk Management during Dynamic Fire and Emergency Operations in Western Australia}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {2}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

Firefighting remains an inherently dangerous occupation with serious injuries and fatalities reported globally. The Australasian Fire Authorities Council adopt ISO31000 as the standard of risk management for all firefighting and mitigation operations. However, previous studies have reported that decisions made by incident controllers during dynamic emergencies are typically reactionary and only partially compliant with the ISO31000 process. This paper describes research using new qualitative and quantitative data that support incident controllers in managing risk during dynamic fire and emergency situations, in accordance with ISO31000. The research was completed through two studies. The first study explored risk attitudes of serving fire service officers through semistructured interviews and in-depth structured surveys. The second study identified the severity of firefighting consequences and likelihood through analysis of Western Australian fire service safety and incident reports between January 1st, 2001 and January 1st, 2015. The overall and conditional probability of specific injuries during the various tasks undertaken during emergency incidents was calculated using Bayesian statistical analysis. The findings indicate that whilst current practices are arguably effective in preventing worst case consequences being realised, improvements in operational risk management can be made in accordance with ISO31000 during emergencies and in pre-incident planning.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, firefighting, probability, risk, risk management}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2020021}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/2/2/21}, author = {Greg Penney} } @article {bnh-5476, title = {Flash flood fatalities in NSW, VIC, ACT and South East QLD from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017}, number = {470}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In terms of lives lost, floods are second only to heatwaves (Coates, 1996; Coates et al 2014), and are one of the top three natural hazards in terms of cost and damage caused, disrupting the functioning of businesses and communities due to\ \ \  building\  \ and\  \ infrastructure\  \ damage.\  \ In\  \ terms\  \ of\  \ reducing\  \ human casualties, \ flash \ floods \ pose \ a \ unique \ challenge \ to \ emergency \ responders and emergency management. Consideration must be given to the efficacy of public education campaigns and warnings, the relative risks occupants face inside and outside the dwelling and the behaviour of individuals during flood events.

The current report builds on that carried out by Risk Frontiers for the New South Wales \ State \ Emergency\  Service \ [Haynes \ et \ al, \ 2009], \ which \ examined \ the fatality and injury record for Australian flash flood events from 1950 to 2008. It also continues the work done for the floods component of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project, {\textquotedblleft}An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters in Australia{\textquotedblright} [see Haynes et al, 2016]. The current research focuses on the circumstances surrounding fatalities resulting from flash flood events in New South Wales (NSW) from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017. To enable comparisons to be made, a few other jurisdictions were examined. The aim is to identify those most at risk and \ any \ trends \ in \ recent \ flash \ flood \ events \ in \ order\  \ to \ inform \ policy development by the NSW SES.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, flood management, health and safety, risk management}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Andrew Gissing and Katharine Haynes and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith and Deirdre Radford} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6161, title = {Fragility and resilience of bridges subjected to extreme wave-induced forces}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, school = {RMIT University}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bridges are susceptible to severe damage due to wave-induced forces during extreme events such as floods, hurricanes, storm surges and tsunamis. As a direct impact of climate change, the frequency and intensity of these events are also expected to increase in the future. The damages to bridges lead to substantial community impact during emergency and post-disaster recovery activities. Hence, viable restoration strategies are needed to enhance the resilience of bridges under extreme wave hazards. The research on the quantification of vulnerability and resilience of bridges under extreme wave forces is limited. In particular, vulnerability and resilience assessment tools for bridges under different hazard intensity levels are required to quantify the resilience. This research addresses these research needs by providing a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework for bridges subjected to extreme hydrodynamic forces.

A comprehensive literature review is first conducted on the four resilience assessment elements, namely external wave force characterization, structural response, vulnerability assessment and resilience quantification to identify the existing gaps in knowledge, particularly in vulnerability and assessment methods.
Unified resilience indices, based on the {\textquotedblleft}resilience triangle{\textquotedblright} concept, are proposed to take into account the effect of the consideration of resources (cost) and environmental impact and their relative importance to the decision makers in the resilience quantification. Such indices are important for stakeholders as they provide a linkage between the social (time), economic and environmental impacts in the assessment of restoration strategies.

An integrated vulnerability assessment framework for bridges with strong connectivity between super- and sub-structure is proposed. The framework includes both static and time-history analyses to examine the performance of bridges subjected to significant hydrodynamic forces. The uncertainties in force and structural parameters are taken into account and the probability of damage is estimated using six damage states that define the pre- and post-peak response of bridge. The pier drift is taken as the engineering demand parameter. The use of two-parameter intensity measures that can provide an accurate estimation of the response of bridge such as momentum flux (hu2) and moment of momentum flux (h2u2/2) is investigated.

To demonstrate the proposed framework, a numerical model is developed for a case study bridge located in a flood-prone region in Queensland, Australia. The accuracy of the piers model is validated using published works on small-scale pier specimens that have limited ductility. The effect of strengthening of bridge piers using fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) jackets is examined.

The overall fragility functions for all intensity measures (velocity, inundation depth, momentum flux and moment of momentum flux) are obtained for both initial and strengthened bridge. The reduction in scatter of fragility data is examined for the two-parameter intensity measures for all damage states. The viability of the use of FRP jackets for enhancing the resilience of bridges under extreme wave forces is also evaluated. The application of unified resilience indices based on the damage probability data obtained from fragility analysis is discussed for different intensities of the hazard.

The main contribution provided by this research is the comprehensive vulnerability and resilience assessment methods for bridges under extreme wave hazards. Such methodologies can assist in the evaluation of the different pre-disaster strengthening and recovery schemes for bridges. Decision makers (e.g., road authorities) can use the outcome of this research to assess the different retrofitting options for bridges taking into consideration the time, cost and energy consumption associated with each option.

}, keywords = {bridges, Emergency management, engineering, Fragility, Natural disasters, resilience}, author = {Ismail Qeshta} } @article {bnh-6000, title = {Globe-LFMC, a global plant water status database for vegetation ecophysiology and wildfire applications}, journal = {Scientific Data}, volume = {6}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, abstract = {

Globe-LFMC is an extensive global database of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) measured from 1,383 sampling sites in 11 countries: Argentina, Australia, China, France, Italy, Senegal, Spain, South Africa, Tunisia, United Kingdom and the United States of America. The database contains 161,717 individual records based on in situ destructive samples used to measure LFMC, representing the amount of water in plant leaves per unit of dry matter. the primary goal of the database is to calibrate and validate remote sensing algorithms used to predict LFMC. However, this database is also relevant for the calibration and validation of dynamic global vegetation models, eco-physiological models of plant water stress as well as understanding the physiological drivers of spatiotemporal variation in LFMC at local, regional and global scales. Globe-LFMC should be useful for studying LFMC trends in response to environmental change and LFMC influence on wildfire occurrence, wildfire behavior, and overall vegetation health.

}, keywords = {database, Emergency management, land management, Natural disasters, Wildfire spread}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0164-9}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-019-0164-9.epdf?author_access_token=HISJcfE-VovHPab3al2NwNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OARKV_7w7xO9p9PGwHd2zKbrs5f-VkYE5AC2lYTydBxaTKy0JaWSgXKUWz0U-fruuzViNrn1JJFl8mARAjGudmQfIcQsd98fM0zv-fk4bXxA\%3D\%3D}, author = {Marta Yebra and Gianluca Scortechini and Abdulbaset Badi and Maria Eugenia Beget and Matthias M. Boer and Ross Bradstock and Emilio Chuvieco and F. Mark Danson and Philip Dennison and Victor Resco de Dios and Carlos M. Di Bella and Greg Forsyth and Philip Frost and Mariano Garcia and Abdelaziz Hamdi and Binbin He and Matt Jolly and Tineke Kraaij and Pillar Martin and Florent Mouillot and Glenn J Newnham and Rachael Nolan and Grazia Pellizzaro and Yi Qi and Xingwen Quan and David Ria{\~n}o and Dar Roberts and Momadou Sow and Susan Ustin} } @article {bnh-6276, title = {Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events - annual report 2018-19}, number = {524}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project will provide practical structural retrofits that will make a significant improvement in the performance of Pre-80s (Legacy) houses to wind loads. The major activity carried out in 2018-19 by the CTS-JCU and GA has been progressing the VAWS software package using wind loading and structural response and other test data:

This project has also provided advice to the Queensland Government Household Resilience Program which provides funding to help eligible home owners improve the resilience of their homes against cyclones. This program is managed by the Queensland Department of Housing \& Public Works (QDHPW) and commenced in late 2018. Eligible home owners can apply to receive a Queensland Government grant of 75\% of the cost of improvements (up to a maximum of $11,250 including GST. About 2000 houses have been retrofitted.

}, keywords = {building resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, engineering, Housing, severe wind, storms, structural design}, issn = {524}, author = {John Ginger and Korah Parackal and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and David Henderson and Mark Edwards} } @article {bnh-5542, title = {Influence of road characteristics on flood fatalities in Australia}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, volume = {18 }, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

An analysis of published flood fatalities in Australia occurring between 1960 and 2015 revealed that 49\% of 229 flood fatalities were vehicle related. After reviewing previous work on vehicle-related flood fatalities, this study examines attributes of roadways that may have influenced driver decisions to enter floodwaters and the survivability of people in vehicles that did so and concludes by discussing policy implications. Characteristics most frequently present were small upstream catchment length that may influence the rate of rise of floodwaters; the absence of roadside barricades; deep flooding immediately adjacent to the roadway; the absence of lighting; dipping road grades that lead floodwaters to increase once a vehicle enters them; the lack of curb and guttering and the inability of motorists to easily turn around. Each of these factors were observed in at least 50\% of the cases studied and provide a risk-based means of assessing other sites vulnerable to flooding but where fatalities have not been observed to date.\ 

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, flood fatalities, risk management, road safety}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609407}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609407}, author = {Andrew Gissing and S. Opper and Matalena Tofa and Coates, Lucinda and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-6236, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation: annual report 2018-2019}, number = {522}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on the carried-out activities, achieved milestones, and submitted deliverables for the second year of operation of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Integrated Urban Planning for Natural Hazard Mitigation project {\textendash} 1st July 2018 to 30th June 2019. It contrasts achieved and planned outcomes and explains the necessary adjustments carried out to date. It starts by offering a background to the project, followed by considerations to the research approach being undertaken and then an explanation of the project implementation in greater detail and its utilisation outputs. This Year 2 {\textendash} 2018-2019 report will be followed by one final annual report to be submitted in mid-2020. In parallel to annual reports, this research project generates quarterly reports that further detail its operation every three months, as well as yearly self-assessment matrices. On the 30th of June 2020, a final report summarising key research project outcomes will also be submitted.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, future, integrating, mitigation, Planning, urban}, issn = {522}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @conference {bnh-6524, title = {Intelligent warnings: a twenty-first century approach to encouraging protective action in emergencies}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Victorian approach to the delivery of public information and warnings is robust and leads the country in many respects. Despite this, when at-risk individuals do receive warnings, existing research clearly highlights they are unlikely to immediately act, and instead, will seek out further information and take time to process the information to determine whether any action is required. This verification process may include talking with family, friends, neighbours or colleagues, resulting in a delay before protective action is taken. To counteract this problem and provide communities with as much time as possible to take action, we need to minimise the likelihood of delays infiltrating our decision-making and warnings dissemination process. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation can help us to achieve this.

To investigate this further, a desktop review of existing literature was undertaken, supported by informal discussions and semi-structured interviews with a diverse range of academics, emergency managers and other experts across Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and the United States. The discussions and interviews highlighted exciting opportunities to enhance our current approach through the use of AI and automation, which could be particularly helpful in enhancing the effectiveness of warnings for rapid impact emergencies, such as flash flooding and severe thunderstorms. During these types of emergencies, where community consequences are often experienced very rapidly after initial onset of the event, AI and automation can support the tailoring of language and content in warning products according to affected communities and likely consequences, minimise warning issuance delay and maximise the effectiveness of decision-making.

The investigation found these technologies are not a replacement for human decision making, however, if leveraged effectively they will enable us to better understand risk in realtime and reduce the considerable time taken to manually process intelligence and apply our pre-determined triggers and business rules. For the Victorian emergency management sector, these results suggest there is a need to prioritise investment in innovative new approaches to support the dissemination of potentially life-saving public information and warnings, whilst also supporting researchers to further understand human behaviour and decision-making upon receipt of a warning. In summary, this investigation has identified opportunities to better support communities to take protective action in a timely manner, to ensure we achieve our shared vision of safer and more resilient communities.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, protective action, risk management, technology, warning}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Riley, Jacob} } @article {bnh-6036, title = {Managing cognitive biases during disaster response: the development of an aide memoire}, journal = {Cognition, Technology \& Work}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, pages = {1-13}, abstract = {

Disasters are highly complex with often extreme consequences and are often exacerbated by decision errors. Human behaviour in this domain offers a fertile ground for studying decision-making and identifying opportunities for improvement. This research sought to improve the quality of decision-making by developing an aide memoire for managing cognitive biases in emergency management. Based on the appropriate literature, 58 of Australia{\textquoteright}s leading marine spill disaster response experts identified and ranked the most important cognitive biases in a group setting. The results were translated into language relevant to emergency management practitioners and reframed into a series of questions. The identification of nine cognitive biases in the aide memoire can first be used to assess the available information, intelligence and decisions, and then used to determine the meaning of the information, intelligence and decisions. The paper discusses the applicability of the aide memoire to decision errors identified in recent man-made and natural disasters. Finally, the article addresses a criticism that research findings are often not useful to industry by suggesting how the aide memoire can be used in practice.

}, keywords = {Cognitive bias, Decision aid, decision-making, disasters, Emergency management}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10111-019-00564-5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10111-019-00564-5$\#$citeas}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin and Owen, Christine and Christopher Bearman} } @article {bnh-5804, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {507}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project titled {\textquotedblleft}Mitigating the Effects of Severe Fires, Floods and Heatwaves through the Improvements of Land Dryness Measures and Forecasts{\textquotedblright} examines the use of detailed land surface models,
satellite measurements and ground-based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. This project will address a fundamental limitation in our ability to prepare for fires, floods and heatwaves and is directly
linked to pre-event planning as well as forecasting of events.

Currently landscape dryness is estimated in Australia using simple empirical models developed in the 1960{\textquoteright}s. The most prominent of those used in Australia are the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI; Keetch \& Byram 1968) and the Soil Dryness Index (SDI; Mount 1972). An initial study performed as part of this project suggest that analyses of soil moisture can be improved by using physically based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation. The project has developed a stand-alone prototype land surface modelling system to produce daily soil moisture analyses at 5km resolution and at 4 soil layers. Verification against ground-based soil moisture observations show that this prototype system is significantly more skilful than both KBDI and SDI.

The present report documents the activities undertaken in 2018-2019. A major focus for the year has been on the downscaling of soil moisture from the JASMIN system, enhancing the spatial resolution from 5 km to 1km. Applications like fire danger mapping may require soil moisture information at higher spatial resolution due to the large spatial variability of soil moisture in the landscape. Another major outcome from the project during this year was the publication of a peerreviewed paper in the highly regarded Agriculture and Forest Meteorology journal.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fires, Floods, Forecasting, heatwaves, land dryness}, issn = {507}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Paul Fox-Hughes and Imtiaz Dharssi} } @conference {bnh-6512, title = {The mitigation exercise: a long term mitigation planning process, with a coastal flooding case study in Adelaide}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) has had a cluster of research projects focused on economics and strategic decisions to improve mitigation since its commencement in 2013. A great deal of work has been done across the economic dimension looking at such issues as:
{\textbullet} risk ownership {\textbullet} non-market value of losses {\textbullet} tracking the impacts of disasters as they ripple through sectors of the economy {\textbullet} land use planning policies for reducing losses

These projects seek to present end-users, emergency management agencies and organisations, as well as recovery agency and other relevant departments such as planning and treasury, with more accurate insights into the potential losses from disasters.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {coastal, Emergency management, Floods, mitigation, risk management, strategies}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Ed Pikusa} } @article {bnh-6333, title = {Model for assessing the vulnerability of Australian housing to windstorms - VAWS}, number = {529}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Modelling the vulnerability of houses in windstorms is important for insurance pricing, policy-making, and emergency management. Models for Australian house types have been developed since the 1970s, and have ranged from empirical models to more advanced reliability based structural engineering models, which provide estimates of damage for a range of wind speeds of interest. This report describes the development of a software program: Vulnerability and Adaption to Wind Simulation (VAWS), which uses probability based reliability analysis and structural engineering for the loading and response coupled with an extensive test database and field damage assessments to calculate the damage experienced by selected Australian house types.\ \ 

}, keywords = {building resilience, cyclone, Emergency management, engineering, severe wind, wind modelling}, issn = {529}, author = {Korah Parackal and Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and John Ginger and David Henderson and Mark Edwards} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6113, title = {Modelling the impact of lifeline infrastructure failure during natural hazard events}, year = {2019}, school = {Macquarie University}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

This thesis utilises mathematical graph theory tools alongside natural hazard modelling to analyse and quantify the extent of lifeline disruption during natural hazard events and the flow on effects of service failure. A future eruption of Mount Fuji in Japan is used as the major case study scenario to assess the usefulness of graph theory techniques in aiding disaster mitigation, emergency response and community recovery. In particular graph theory was used to assess the impacts of ash fall on the evacuation plans for Yamanashi Prefecture with regards to a future 1707 Hoei type eruption. It was found that: Ash induced road closures have the potential to affect current evacuation plans for Yamanashi Prefecture, particularly for those residents who are set to evacuate at or after the onset of a future eruption. Ash fall accumulation on roads, even after a few hours from the onset of an eruption, can inhibit road use, resulting in long detours or the inability for residents to be able to evacuate unassisted. After the cessation of an eruption, ash fall can impact the return of evacuees to their homes by either blocking roads or damaging buildings, affecting safety. Evacuees will have to wait for roads to be cleared of ash, and buildings to be assessed for damage, before they are able to return. In an eruption scenario where wind conditions are predominantly westerly the current plan for residents to evacuate to the north east of Yamanashi prefecture is not advisable. Assigned host locations in the northeast would be impacted by ash fall themselves; adding additional pressure on these communities and potentially resulting in further evacuations. This scenario provided the opportunity to test graph theory techniques in natural hazard risk assessment and to demonstrate how graph theory can assist post event recovery in a real world context. Methods developed in this study can be used to further explore impacts of ash fall, or other volcanic phenomena, in other prefectures around Mount Fuji or other volcanoes throughout Japan. Moreover, these methods can be used to address the exposure and risk to lifelines from other natural hazard events or even to compare between them. The results of this thesis show that graph theory techniques, alongside Geographic Information Systems tools and hazard modelling, with an understanding of the use and vulnerability of particular lifelines, can help to envisage potential problems that could result from lifeline failure and aid in the process of recovery. Not only is it important to make lifeline infrastructure more resilient to disruption from future natural hazard shocks, there is also a need to increase resilience by preparing communities to cope with service outages. For true shared responsibility to occur, local governments and communities need to be better informed and prepared so they can cope with the absence of lifelines during a disaster. Collaboration between all stakeholders is required to bridge information gaps and to create holistic disaster scenarios in order to provide more realistic and accurate assessments of future natural hazard impacts

}, keywords = {critical infrastructure, disaster relief, Emergency management, impacts, lifelines, Natural hazards, networks, volcanos}, doi = {http://hdl.handle.net/1959.14/1268491}, url = {http://minerva.mq.edu.au:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:70865}, author = {Phillips, E} } @article {bnh-6035, title = {Monitoring, evaluation and learning toolkit}, number = {517}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This toolkit builds on National Strategy for Disaster Resilience: Community Engagement Framework Handbook 6 (Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience, 2013) by providing details of:

The model travels through a series of levels of community engagement planning and implementation, which helps practitioners to map and undertake the best community engagement approach for a specific community.

The base articles used to build the suite of techniques were found during a systematic literature review of preparedness activity. A systematic literature review is a rigorous, procedural approach to drawing out all available literature on a topic.\  The value of a systematic literature review is that it provides a wide-ranging view of the accessible knowledge around a topic. Articles were included based on whether they measured impact of engagement techniques (such as preparedness levels, lives saved), and the quality of the research. The full list of articles can be found in the references section.

}, keywords = {community engagement, Emergency management, Evaluation, monitoring}, issn = {517}, author = {Maureen Taylor and Kim Johnston and Barbara Ryan} } @article {bnh-5763, title = {Older adults in disaster and emergency management: What are the priority research areas in Australia?}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {39}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, abstract = {

In Australia, the proportion of people aged over 65 years is increasing and the frequency and severity of natural hazard events are also increasing. Older adults are often identified as a vulnerable group in natural hazard events, but there has been relatively little research that focuses specifically on older adults and their capacities and needs. This paper describes stakeholder consultation undertaken to identify research priorities related to older adults and natural hazards in Australia, and compares this to current research literature on this topic identified in an initial scoping review. A two-phase modified Delphi study was undertaken with stakeholder organisations within Australia, including older adults{\textquoteright} representative organisations, community services, and emergency services. Stakeholders (n = 112) first identified priority research areas and 649 distinct topics were suggested; thematic analysis was used to refine these to 19 research topic areas that were then rated and ranked for importance by stakeholders during phase two. The top five topic areas identified were {\textquoteleft}Communication and warnings,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Preparedness,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Awareness, behaviour and decision-making,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) communities,{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Community services and organisations{\textquoteright}. While these topics are covered in some Australian literature, further research {\textendash} particularly in relation to CALD communities, and community services/organisations {\textendash} is needed. This study demonstrates the value of stakeholder engagement and the Delphi approach for identifying research priorities that can best address issues and concerns amongst diverse stakeholders. It also highlights that there is a need for further research with older adults, communities, and stakeholders to support preparedness, risk reduction, and resilience.

}, keywords = {CALD, Disaster management, Emergency management, Natural hazards, Older adults, Stakeholder engagement}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101248}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919301736?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Lisa Fountain and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes and Mel Taylor and Susan Ferguson} } @article {bnh-6281, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes}, number = {525}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We have made significant progress in several areas of research over the past 12 months. This has included modelling of carbon emissions from prescribed fires using (a) regression modelling to couple the effect of prescribed fire on water and carbon at a catchment scale, and (b) FullCAM, a process-based model that can track carbon pools in forests systems. The latter is a readily accessible tool that has very good potential to be adopted by End User agencies when required to report on carbon emissions resulting from their efforts to manage fuels. A fuel condition model (the {\textquoteleft}litter triangle{\textquoteright}) detailing carbon load and fuel reduction has been developed for surface fuels in dry sclerophyll forest. This is an easy-to-use tool that can be used as a guide for estimating potential for carbon loss due to prescribed burning. We are in an exciting phase of End User utilisation and tangible uses for our research has been identified and are being pursued. Reporting on our progress has taken the form of milestone reports, bi-monthly newsletters directed towards our End Users, and presentations for local, national and international forums. We have endeavoured to meet regularly with our primary End User and have established collaborations with research groups such as CSIRO and local land managers from NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. Our vision for the next 12 months is to consolidate our research in the area of estimating carbon emissions from prescribed fires, modelling of carbon and water across the landscape for optimisation of planned burning and linking metrics describing combustion of surfaces fuels with fire severity.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fuel reduction, optimisation, planned burning, safety}, issn = {525}, author = {Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-5698, title = {Optimising post-disaster recovery interventions in Australia: annual project report 2018-19}, number = {488}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC }, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disasters in Australia are very costly, and often have devastating socio-economic effects on impacted communities.

In Victoria, we have sadly seen this first-hand. This year marked the 10th anniversary of the Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires (VIC BSB), which remains the most devastating modern-day bushfire our state has witnessed.\  From our fellow BNHCRC Beyond Bushfires researchers, we know that these fires have had profound measurable effects on the mental health of people living in the bushfire-hit areas, with disruptions to income {\textendash} the focus of our own research {\textendash} demonstrated to be a key contributing stressor.

Our pioneering research program explores the impact of a number of Australian natural disasters, including the VIC BSB, on disaster-hit individuals{\textquoteright} economic resilience. By analysing Australian 2006, 2011 and 2016 Census data, we determine whether their income levels were able to recover post disaster in the short and medium term, considering demographic factors and employment sectors.\  Through real-life case studies,\  our research helps illustrate how these events{\textemdash}of different types and scales{\textemdash}impact and ripple through communities and the broader economy over time.\ 

}, keywords = {Australia, communities, Emergency management, Multi-hazard, post-disaster recovery, recovery}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-5677, title = {Overcoming Ambiguity: Conflict Between Emergency Warning Messages and Socio-Environmental Cues}, journal = {Prehospital and Disaster Medicine}, volume = {34}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Introduction:

Emergency services are not the only source of information that the public uses when considering taking action during an event. There are also environmental cues, information from the media, or actions by peers that can influence perceptions and actions. When cues from different information sources are in conflict, it can cause uncertainty about the right protective action to take.

Aim:

Our research responds to concerns that conflicting cues exacerbate community non-compliance with emergency warnings.

Methods:

The sample consisted of 2,649 participants who completed one of 32 surveys.

Results:

The findings from this project confirmed emergency services agencies{\textquoteright} suspicions that conflicting cues can affect information processing and risk perceptions, and therefore prevent people from taking appropriate protective action. The results were reasonably consistent across fire and flood scenarios, suggesting the problem of conflicting cues is not hazard-specific. When presented with consistent cues, participants were more likely to evacuate, perceive risk about the event, share information with friends, family, and peers, find emergency warnings to be effective, and comprehend information. When faced with conflicting cues, participants were more likely to seek out additional information. It affected their information processing and self-efficacy. The results did not change for people of different ages, native language, country of birth, or post-hazard experience. This is contrary to most emergency literature research findings, which show that individual differences play a role in impacting propensity to take protective action. However, there does appear to be a significant gender effect. These results require further exploration.

Discussion:

These findings may be used to assist emergency services agencies to tailor community warnings during time-critical situations, and develop ways to mitigate ambiguity caused by conflicting cues to encourage protective action in order to save lives and properties.

}, keywords = {behaviours, Emergency management, risk, Risk perception, Warnings}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X1900061X}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/prehospital-and-disaster-medicine/article/overcoming-ambiguity-conflict-between-emergency-warning-messages-and-socioenvironmental-cues/F8F82D37A8E3E526E0C6BD509EB7642F}, author = {Paula Dootson and Dominique Greer and Sophie Miller and Vivienne Tippett} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6163, title = {The post disaster city: crisis politics and social change in community led earthquake recovery}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2017}, school = {RMIT University}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disasters are events of considerable disruption and disturbance. These destructive events rupture perceptions of normality, and in so doing, shed light on obscured and normalised aspects of society. While communities are commonly understood as first responders to disaster, this thesis presents research that deepens our understanding of how communities engage with recovery and how this influences forms of social and political change. In this context, I draw on critical geographies of crisis and hope to frame the potential that emerges from disruption to foster different forms of change. This involves an understanding of the complex dynamics of political and social change in response to disaster, as well as the inter-connected relationship between community led recovery and the actions of the state in responding to crisis. Through investigating this contestation and politicisation, I provide a rich empirical case study to ground the discourses and practices of a politics of crisis and hope at the everyday level.

To achieve this aim, this thesis documents the ongoing recovery of the city of Christchurch in Aotearoa New Zealand following a devastating series of earthquakes. The Canterbury earthquakes that struck in 2010 and 2011 sent shock waves throughout the city and wider region. Loss of life, injury and widespread damage to residential and commercial properties left the city struggling to move beyond the immediate needs for response and into long-term recovery and reconstruction. While the official recovery process has been characterised by a centralised approach to the social, economic and environmental facets of urban disaster recovery, the actions of community organisations and networks have revealed a wider role for citizen participation and engagement. I employ a post-structural methodology to analyse the role of these community organisations in contributing to social and political change in Christchurch, both through official government processes and through autonomous, and potentially radical, projects of co-creation and experimentation.

The findings of this research present a compelling argument for the important role of community led action in shaping diverse forms of disaster recovery, despite the foreclosure of many formal avenues for participation by a centralised government approach. I draw on theories of exception and post politics to argue that the state crafted a political approach to recovery characterised by a discursive and ideological entrenchment of exceptionality and selective de-politicisation. Crucially, I demonstrate how the opportunities facilitated by the rupture of disaster also provide the grounds for possibility and experimentation that challenge this apparent hegemony of neoliberal governance, while creatively and constructively creating alternative forms of society and economy.

The approach of community led recovery thus renders incomplete the attempted foreclosure of democratic participation and provides radical forms of social and political change in the post-disaster landscape. Through the presentation of in-depth empirical evidence, the actions of community organisations and their integral role in producing hopeful manifestations of disaster recovery is highlighted. These forms of community led recovery represent an integral facet for more widely understanding the role of disaster in contesting and reconfiguring society and politics.

}, keywords = {communities, disaster studies, disasters, Emergency management, health and safety}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162124}, author = {Raven Cretney} } @article {bnh-6395, title = {The potential role of the commonwealth in responding to catastrophic disasters}, number = {530}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

he research question posed, and considered in this paper, is {\textquoteleft}in the absence of legislation, what is the role in, and more importantly what power might the Commonwealth have, when responding and recovering from a catastrophic disaster? Currently the Commonwealth has no overarching or specific counter-disaster legislation.\  This paper argues that even in the absence of legislation there is Commonwealth power to respond to emergencies within the areas of Commonwealth responsibility.\  Further there is an inherent power to deal with catastrophic disasters vested in the Crown as part of the prerogative power of the Crown and now incorporated into the Executive Power of the Commonwealth.\  Exactly what constitutes a {\textquoteleft}catastrophic disaster{\textquoteright} would be open to debate and, in the absence of legislation, may be the subject of judicial challenge. It is argued that a disaster where a state government is overwhelmed so that the state itself is at risk of collapse and there is no effective state government would be a national catastrophic disaster that would justify Commonwealth intervention in the affairs of the state in order to restore effective state government.\  What disaster, short of the collapse of state government, would be sufficient for direct Commonwealth action cannot be conclusively defined.\  \ 
In the absence of legislation and a truly catastrophic event, the Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s authority to exercise national leadership and coordinate Commonwealth, state and private assets will depend on good will and cooperation.\  The extent of the Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s executive power cannot be identified until the circumstances of the particular disaster have been identified.
Failing to define, in legislation, the role and power of the Commonwealth will leave the Commonwealth to {\textquoteleft}cope ugly{\textquoteright} with any particular catastrophe.\  That may be acceptable as it will leave the Commonwealth with adaptive flexibility. It has however been a consistent recommendation of commentators that the Commonwealth should legislate to ensure that the Commonwealth is able to cope with an inevitable catastrophe.\  \ 
The absence of legislation makes it impossible to define, except in the most generic terms, what the Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s powers are.

}, keywords = {Cascading Events, Collapse, Disaster management, Emergency management, Fire, hazards}, issn = {530}, author = {Michael Eburn and Cameron Moore and Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-5807, title = {Preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia July 2003 to June 2017}, number = {506}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Introduction

On average, more than one fire-related death occurs in a residential context every week in Australia. That equates to approximately the same number of deaths as occurred during the Black Saturday bushfires (173) every three years. These deaths are overwhelmingly preventable. Deaths from residential fires have significant social, economic and emotional impacts on individuals, families, communities and also on the firefighters and other emergency service workers who attend these tragic incidents. The last published national study into residential fire fatalities in Australia was released in 2005 (Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC), 2005). The current study follows on from that report but looks in greater depth at who is most at risk. It provides fire services and other stakeholders with an analysis of preventable residential fire fatalities to inform evidence-based policy and practice to reduce the number of future deaths.

Aims

The aims of this study were to:

Methods

The methodology of this study is based primarily on the collection and analysis of coronial records from the National Coronial Information System (NCIS) database, supported by the analysis of publicly available Coronial reports. The NCIS database is an online facility storing coronial cases from all jurisdictions in Australia from 2000 onwards. To access the NCIS database ethics approvals were obtained from the Human Research Ethics Committees of Macquarie University and the Victorian Department of Justice and Regulation, from the Coroners Court of Victoria Research Committee and from the Western Australian Coronial Ethics Committee.\ 

Australian records from 1 July 2003 to 30 June 2017 were accessed in the NCIS by a\ variety of searches. After refinement of the applicable dataset, relevant structured\ and non-structured data from the NCIS (comprising the summary page, police,\ autopsy and toxicology reports and coroner{\textquoteright}s findings) were coded for 41 fields and\ entered into a specially constructed Microsoft (MS) Access database {\textendash} the\ Preventable Residential Fire Fatalities Database. Once complete, the data were\ exported to MS Excel tables and statistically analysed.\ \ 

Results/Discussion

Mortaility statistics

This study found that at least 900 people have died in preventable residential fires in\ Australia from July 2003 to June 2017, averaging approximately 64 deaths per year\ or more than one preventable residential fire death every week. This is a national\ death rate of approximately 0.29 per 100,000 population. The majority of deaths\ occur in single fatality incidents. Between 2003 and 2017 there was no clear\ declining trend in fire fatalities.

The results from this study highlight that the conceptualisation of fire fatality risk is\ complex. The presence of a single risk factor on its own is unlikely to significantly\ increase a person{\textquoteright}s risk of dying in a residential fire. It is the co-occurrence of a\ range of factors surrounding the person, their behaviours, their residential\ environment and other external factors that is likely to impact their overall level of
risk of having a fire that results in their death.

Fire services, individuals and other stakeholders can and should do more to reduce the rate of residential fire fatalities further, with an aim of reducing preventable residential fire deaths towards zero. Interventions to reduce the risk of residential fire for those most at risk of dying need to encompass both technological and human-centred approaches.

The residence and location

Free-standing houses/ villas were the housing type where the majority of fatal fires occurred (67.1\%). However, stand-alone houses comprise 78.4\% of housing stock in Australia, so other housing types may be over-represented in the fatality data. Similarly, owner occupiers were the most commonly identified property tenure (53\%), but owner occupiers account for approximately 67\% of all property tenures in
Australia (ABS, 2017). This indicates that other tenure types, such as private and public rentals, may be over-represented in fire fatalities.\ 

Geographically, most fatal residential fires occurred in major cities, but with regard to the death rate per 100,000 population, there was over-representation of deaths in regional and remote areas. The analysis of the fatality data in relation to areas of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD) (refer to pp.31-32 and Appendix 3) shows that most fatalities occurred in locations where there is relatively greater socio-economic disadvantage.\ Fatal preventable residential fires start most commonly in the living room/ lounge or\ bedroom. They are not necessarily large or severe fires, with approximately half of\ fatal fires burning one room or less of the structure.

Seasonality

The most common characteristics of residential fires that are fatal include that they\ occur mostly during the Australian winter months. They occur most commonly\ between hours of 8pm-8am and particularly from midnight-4am.

Smoke alarms

Smoke alarms are the most important residential fire safety device. They are required\ by law in residential properties in all Australian jurisdictions. For this study, data on\ smoke alarms was collected from the narrative parts of the NCIS database. In a\ large majority of cases (65.9\%), this information was not known. The extent that the\ presence of a smoke alarm was noted is low considering their importance, and
considering that the absence of a smoke alarm may have had an impact on the\ fatality outcome (e.g., by providing an earlier warning to the fire victim.)

The people

Single variable analysis from the current research found that those most at risk of\ dying in a preventable residential fire included:

By age cohort, people aged >=65 are the group most at risk of dying in a residential fire. In the >=65 cohort, the fatality rate increases with age; older age groups are more at risk. The data indicates that the other factors that increase risk in older people include smoking, having a disability, the presence in their blood of alcohol and/ or medications, living alone and requiring support to live at home. Where these
factors are present in combination, an older person{\textquoteright}s risk may increase significantly.\ 

The presence of a working smoke alarm may not provide early enough warning to enable older people to escape from a fire. This is an area that needs more research, but it indicates that there may be life-saving benefits if fire services and other stakeholders focus on increasing the uptake of specialist smoke alarms appropriate to the needs of older people.

The future fire fatality risk for older people is likely to be on an increasing trajectory due to a range of demographic and policy factors. These include an ageing population and this growing population of older people\ {\textquotedblleft}ageing in place{\textquotedblright} within their own home for longer.

Children aged 0-4 had the largest number of deaths of any 5 year age range. The cause of fire was more often lighters or matches (n=31), which may indicate that a significant number of fires were lit by children during fire-play. The link to social and financial disadvantage was particularly significant in this cohort, with almost half (48.6\%, n=34) of deaths in the 0-4 age bracket occurring in locations in the top 10\% of greatest socio-economic disadvantage, and 87.2\% of fatalities occurred in the top 40\% of locations of greatest disadvantage.

Fire safety interventions for this cohort need to be focused on increasing the basic home fire safety of families with young children, particularly in areas of social and financial disadvantage. Fire services and other stakeholders may consider interventions that partner with other services, such as maternal and child health services, to identify and reach those most at risk.

Within the fire fatality data, 46.7\% (n=420) of decedents were identified as having at least one disability present. Physical disabilities comprised 46.2\% of disabilities identified, while mental health and neurological disorders made up 27.8\% and 9.7\% of disabilities identified. People with a disability are likely to be over-represented in the fire fatality data. Mental health and neurological disorders are an identified risk factor for residential fire fatality. Similar to older people, there may be a lifesaving benefit in fire services and other stakeholders focusing on increasing the uptake of specialist smoke alarms appropriate to the needs of people with a disability.\ 

Some 8.2\% (n=57) of decedents were identified as Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander\ (TSI) or both. Approximately 3.3\% of the Australian population identify as Aboriginal\ or TSI (ABS, 2019a), meaning that this cohort are over-represented in the data by a\ factor of 2.5. Aboriginal/ TSI people comprised 12\% of fatalities under 65 years of age and 3\% of people over 65 years, likely reflecting the younger age structure of the\ Aboriginal and TSI population.

Smokers are over-represented to a large extent in residential fire fatalities. Of cases\ where the smoking status of the decedent was known (n=428), 65.4\% of people\ were smokers. During the study period, smoking rates in Australia decreased\ significantly, and reduced-fire-risk cigarettes were mandated in Australia in 2010. In\ the 2004/5 financial year 23.3\% of Australians were smokers. By 2014/15 this had
decreased to 15.5\%. The fatality data does not reflect any decline in the number of\ smokers who died over the course of the study period. It is unclear why this is the\ case.

Smoking materials are a major cause of ignition of fatal residential fires. For those cases where the fire cause was known, over a quarter (26.7\%, n=161) were caused by smoking materials (i.e., cigarettes, pipes etc), with just over a third of those (n=56) relating to smoking in bed. There was a strong link between smoking materials as the cause of fire and the residence being located in a relatively disadvantaged area,\ with 49\% of fires caused by smoking materials occurring in the top 25\% of most\ disadvantaged locations.

Recommendations

Fire services and other stakeholders may consider the following recommendations to reduce the incidence of preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia:

Conclusion

Preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia remain a significant public health problem, with an average of 64 fatalities each year. Deaths from residential fires have significant social, economic and emotional impacts on individuals, families, communities and also on the firefighters and other emergency service workers who attend these tragic incidents.

For the first time in over 14 years, this study provides an update on the evidence around the extent of preventable residential fire fatalities in Australia, those people most at risk and the details of fire incidents and residences where fatal fires have occurred. It provides a set of data that fire services and other stakeholders can use to develop evidence-based policy and practice to reduce the occurrence of fatal residential fires.

}, keywords = {Australia, Emergency management, Fatalities, Fire, metropolitan fire, MFB}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-3-3}, issn = {506}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and Geoff Kaandorp and Julie Harris and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Ashley Avci and Jacob Evans and Steve George and Andrew Gissing and Robin van den Honert and Katharine Haynes} } @conference {bnh-6528, title = {Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: a pyrocumulonimbus prediction tool}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Pyrocumulonimbus (fire-induced thunderstorms, pyroCb) are associated with unpredictable changes in fire intensity, spread rates and direction, enhanced ember transport and lightning ignitions. Conventional thunderstorm threats such as downbursts, hail, lightning, and tornadoes may also be present. This paper introduces a pyroCb prediction tool and its application is demonstrated.

In favourable atmospheric conditions, suitably large and hot fires can produce pyroCb cloud in the form of deep convective columns with many similarities to conventional thunderstorms. They may be accompanied by strong inflow, dangerous downbursts and lightning strikes, which may enhance fire spread rates and fire intensity, cause sudden changes in fire spread direction, and the lightning may ignite additional fires. Dangerous pyroCb conditions are not well understood and can be very difficult to forecast.

In recent Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC (BNHCRC) research, a method for determining how favourable the atmospheric environment is for pyroCb development was developed. This method is combined with a plume-rise model (originally developed for pollutant dispersion prediction) to determine how much heat a fire must produce for pyroCb to develop in a given atmospheric environment. More specifically, this fire heat is the rate at which heat enters the fire plume (which has units of power), often termed the {\textquoteleft}power of the fire{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}firepower{\textquoteright}. A theoretical minimum firepower required for pyroCb to develop in a given atmospheric environment is calculated, termed the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold (PFT).

Forecast spatial plots of PFT are being trialled that provide an indication of how the favourability of the atmosphere for pyroCb development varies in space and time over typical weather forecast periods. It is anticipated that such plots will provide useful guidance for fire weather forecasters and fire agencies. Preliminary studies have shown that the PFT can vary substantially from day to day, and that days that favour pyroCb formation do not necessarily favour large-hot fires. A PFT-flag is also under development that identifies when both pyroCb and large-hot fires are favourable.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fire impacts, predictors, risk management, thunderstorms}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {KJ Tory} } @article {bnh-5833, title = {Recovery capitals: applying a community capitals framework to disaster recovery annual report 2018-2019}, number = {510}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Recovery Capitals (ReCap) project applies a Community Capitals lens to disaster recovery to increase understanding about the interacting influences of social, built, financial, political, human, cultural and natural capital on mental health and wellbeing outcomes. It will address the missing link between existing community resilience indicators and disaster resilience frameworks by providing evidence and resources to guide decision making customised to the community context.

ReCap has shown marked progress in the first year of operation under the current academic team by engaging a large team of end-user and stakeholder organisations who are actively involved in progressive decision making. Detailed evidence mapping against the community capitals framework has been undertaken using previous research conducted by the academic teams and collaborators.

The ReCap activity has enabled new collaborations, including the invitation to Professor Aldrich from Northeastern University and BNHCRC colleagues, Professor Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Farah Beani from Deakin University to join ReCap to address gaps in the evidence for cultural, political and financial capital. It has also enabled new collaborations and initiatives in Aotearoa New Zealand with Massey University, in partnership with the Wellington Emergency Management Office, Fire and Emergency New Zealand and the New Zealand Red Cross.

}, keywords = {communities, disasters, Emergency management, emergency recovery, recover}, issn = {510}, author = {Lisa Gibbs and Phoebe Quinn and David Johnston and Denise Blake and Emily Campbell and Kate Brady} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8094, title = {Reducing turnover in volunteer organisations: A leadership intervention based on self-determination theory}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, pages = {230}, school = {University of Wollongong}, address = {Wollongong}, abstract = {

Background:\ Increasingly high turnover rates in volunteer organisations have reached critical levels. Australian volunteer emergency service organisations are struggling to maintain adequate volunteer numbers to continue to deliver vital services to the community. The experience volunteers have with their leader is one of the strongest predictors of future volunteering. Despite industry, government and academics calling for increased focus on the training and development of volunteer leaders, there is currently limited theoretical and/or empirical guidance to support this endeavour. Little is known about what leadership approaches are effective or suitable with volunteers. Furthermore, it is unknown how volunteers{\textquoteright} experiences with their leader comes to influence their decision to stay with or leave the organisation. This thesis seeks to address these issues and formulates an evidence-based approach for improving leadership to help retain volunteer workers in Australian emergency service organisations.

Aim:\ The aim of this thesis is to examine the application of managerial autonomy support, an interpersonal style proposed by Self Determination Theory (SDT), as an approach to volunteer leadership, focusing on its potential to retain volunteers. In order to achieve this, the thesis addresses three objectives. First, the hypothesized conceptual model that delineates the relations between perceived managerial autonomy support, followers{\textquoteright} basic psychological need satisfaction, job satisfaction and turnover intention is tested in the volunteer organisations. The second objective is to determine whether, through an SDT-based leadership development intervention, leaders can change and/or develop their managerial orientation towards autonomy support. The final objective is to ascertain whether followers of these leaders perceive changes in their socio-contextual climate during the intervention period.

Method:\ A total sample of 363 participants was obtained for this study, comprising 167 leaders and 196 followers across four volunteer emergency service organisations in Australia. A quasi-experimental design tested the impact of an SDT-based leadership intervention on leaders (n=65) and their followers, compared to a control group of leaders (n=102) who received no training. Leaders{\textquoteright} self-reported managerial orientation was assessed at pre-test, post-test and one year after the intervention. Followers{\textquoteright} perceived managerial autonomy support from the leader, basic psychological needs satisfaction, job satisfaction and turnover intention were measured before and after their leader completed the intervention.

Results:\ A test of the hypothesised model via structural equation modelling indicate that emergency service workers{\textquoteright} perceptions of leaders{\textquoteright} managerial orientation influenced their job satisfaction and subsequent turnover intention through basic psychological needs satisfaction. Testing the impact of the SDT leadership development intervention, leaders in the experimental condition changed their interpersonal orientation towards autonomy support after completing the intervention and these reflected enduring changes that remained evident one year later. The intervention was most effective for leaders with relatively little prior experience leading volunteers, who showed greater propensity for developing their managerial orientation. Followers did not report any significant changes in the provision of autonomy support from their leader, basic psychological need satisfaction, job satisfaction or turnover intention over the nine weeks their leader was participating in the SDT-based leadership development intervention.

Contribution/Implications:\ This thesis provides one of the most in-depth empirical explorations to date, of the malleability of managerial autonomy support amongst organisational leaders. A contribution is made to the scholarly study of volunteer leadership more broadly, by offering a validated theoretical model of leadership and its influence on followers in the volunteer context. This research provides support for Self-Determination Theory in the volunteer organisations.

}, keywords = {Autonomy, autonomy support, basic psychological needs, competence, dyads, Emergency management, emergency services, field experiment, interpersonal skills, intervention, job satisfaction, leaders, leadership, leadership development, leadership intervention, leadership training, management, manager, managerial autonomy support, motivation, motivation theory, organisational development, organisations, relatedness, self-determination theory, structural equation modelling, supervisors, turnover intention, volunteer, volunteer leadership, volunteer retention, volunteer satisfaction, volunteer turnover, workplace}, url = {https://ro.uow.edu.au/theses1/692/}, author = {Vivien Forner} } @conference {bnh-6526, title = {Research activities within European Union research program for improving preparedness and resilience }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The International Emergency Management Society (TIEMS) is an international not for profit non-profit organisation, registered in Belgium, operating in its 26th year. TIEMS has chapters in 14 countries around the world and is in the process of establishing three new chapters this year. TIEMS activities comprise international conferences and workshops; research and development activities; and education, training and certification programs. TIEMS{\textquoteright}s slogan is: Preparedness saves lives.

Since 2006 TIEMS has participated as a consortium partner in European Union (EU) Research and Technology Development (RTD) programs to improve emergency preparedness. In addition, TIEMS experts have been members of user groups and advisory boards for a variety of other EU projects focusing on preparedness in Europe and worldwide. The present running EU program is Horizon 2020, which will have invested more than 100 billion Euro in RTD by the end of 2020, by EU RTD funding and private investment.

Four EU projects where TIEMS has been a consortium partner are: NARTUS (addressing important public safety communication issues); ASSET (improving trust between authorities and the public for pandemics and epidemics); HERACLES (protecting cultural heritage sites towards climate change), and DG ECHO Wildfire HUB (establishing an expert HUB in Europe to support wildfire fighting and to serve as a prototype for additional expert HUB{\textquoteright}s for other disasters in Europe). This paper summarizes the approaches developed by these programs to improve emergency preparedness.

TIEMS has also launched its own internal RTD project to develop a curriculum and on-line system for TIEMS International Certification {\textendash} TQC, which aims to become an internationally recognised certification of qualifications in international emergency management. This paper describes the structure and operational aspects of TQC.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Preparedness, protection, research program, resilience}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Drager, Kaare H and Robertson, Thomas} } @conference {bnh-6507, title = {Safety awareness of firefighters and their perception of fire risks in cladding fires }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Owing to the extensive use of polymers in building products, there is the urgent need to resolve the present fire risks of highly combustible cladding products. Apart from understanding the risks associated with cladding materials on buildings, it is also essential to evaluate the underlying risks of existing noncompliant materials on buildings for residents, owners, and the public, and for firefighters during the management of such fire events. In this article, a fire risk perception survey was constructed by a collaborative effort from Fire and Rescue New South Wales (FRNSW) and University of New South Wales. The survey can be subdivided into four major parts, i) demographics, ii) risk awareness and identification associated with cladding material, iii) the firefighter{\textquoteright}s own perceived risk associated with cladding fires and iv) risk mitigating behaviours. The majority of the questions are designed with five distinctive levels (i.e. ranging from rare to almost certain, or negligible to very high), and it will be distributed to firefighters from major states and rural fire agencies around Australia. The results will formulate a large and comprehensive database to increase our understanding of the firefighter{\textquoteright}s risk perception associated with combustible cladding materials.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {cladding, Emergency management, fire management, Fire risk, firefighter, risk awareness}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Timothy Bo Yuan Chen and Anthony Chun Yin Yuen and Qing Nian Chan and Guan Heng Yeoh} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6247, title = {Simulation and analysis of surface wind fields during landfalling tropical cyclones}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, school = {University of Queensland}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are rotating atmospheric vortices characterised by high wind speeds thatpose a major threat to people and infrastructure in coastal communities. To minimise their impacts,the winds in the lowest part of the TC boundary layer (TCBL) must be adequately understood. Thisunderstanding enables engineers to make rational decisions around building design in these regionsand allows meteorologists to improve their forecasts. Of particular importance is how the TCBL ismodified when abrupt changes in surface terrain conditions occur, such as during landfall, which cansignificantly alter the physical structure of a TC. Although near-surface TC wind data has begun to becaptured through coordinated field campaigns in, for example, the USA and Australia, there is littleexplicit information on how the TCBL is modified during landfall or in the vicinity of other suddenchanges in land surface conditions. This thesis sets out to investigate this process through, 1) analysisof near-surface wind observations, and 2) numerical simulation of idealised TCs.To explore how near-surface turbulence is modified, the present study analysed observational TCwind records at measurement heights of 2.25 m, 3 m, 5 m, and 10 m collected during 11 TCs from theFlorida Coastal Monitoring Program (FCMP), StickNet, and the Surface Weather Information Relayand Logging network (SWIRLnet). These low-level records will be analysed to assess their turbulentcharacteristics and the response of these characteristics to sudden changes in land surface. Resultswere compared with traditional engineering models (AS/NZS1170.2, ESDU) predicting turbulencetransition in non-TC environments to assess their efficacy in TC environments. Results show thatturbulence statistics require about 2 km to reach equilibrium with the underlying terrain, independentof measurement height and upstream terrain. Engineering models tested were found to over predictturbulence intensities in a TC environment. A simple empirical model for estimating the transition ofturbulence intensity following a single change in terrain is proposed.Exploring more broadly how the mean TCBL structure is modified during TC landfall, this thesisalso uses hybrid real-idealised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical simulations toinvestigate the mean TCBL response during landfall. This numerical modelling method combines anidealised spun-up TC and a real world environment to undertake a series of parametric simulationswhere idealised TCs impact coastlines with a range of terrain conditions. These tests systematicallyexplore how sudden changes in terrain (e.g. sea to different land surfaces) influence bulk stormcharacteristics (e.g. TC size, radius of maximum wind), surface wind footprints, and vertical TCwind profiles in different parts of simulated TCs. Generated TC wind profiles are also compared withobservational dropsonde data as well as one existing analytical model. Increased surface roughnessover land was found not to deflect the TC track prior to landfall, but was shown to lower TC intensity.Increased surface roughness was also found to reduce maximum surface level wind speeds by up to70\% within 12 hours after TC landfall. Modelled TCBL profiles over water follow a logarithmic windprofile up to the height of maximum wind speed, which increases with TC radius. TCBL profiles overland also exhibit a logarithmic wind profile but wind speeds decay faster particularly closer to thesurface.

}, keywords = {building resilience, cyclones, Emergency management, severe storms, Simulation modelling, strong winds}, author = {Thomas Kloetzke} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6114, title = {Sprinkler systems for the protection of buildings from wildfire}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, school = {University of Wollongong}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Wollongong}, abstract = {

Wildfires pose a significant hazard in many residential areas around the world. Minimisation of the risk to human lives and property requires a multi-faceted approach, involving fuel reduction, fire suppression, and engineering measures to improve the resistance of buildings to the effects of intense radiant heat, burning embers and flame contact. Measures that are recommended to improve the wildfire resistance of buildings typically focus on building materials and design features, as well as fuel sources close to the building. Wildfire sprinkler systems are often promoted as an optional, additional risk-mitigation measure. Typically, such systems are designed to spray water on building external surfaces, surround the building with airborne droplets, and/or wet nearby fuel sources during wildfires.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Fire, fire management, sprinklers}, url = {https://ro.uow.edu.au/theses1/617/}, author = {Alan Green} } @article {bnh-6012, title = {State Emergency Service volunteer views on expectations, experiences and motivations}, number = {513}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In 2017, the University of Western Australia (UWA) began a research collaboration project with the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC), to investigate ways to improve the retention rates of their emergency service volunteers. The State Emergency Service (SES) volunteers are a vital community within Western Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency volunteering sector due to their profound work and assistance in times of natural disasters and other emergencies. As such, researchers from UWA (Patrick Dunlop, Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e}, and Djurre Holtrop have since relocated to Curtin University) have collaborated to develop and administer a Cultural Assessment Tool (CAT) in the form of an online survey. The purpose of this survey was to learn about the SES volunteering experience from the volunteers{\textquoteright} perspectives in order to obtain information on how to improve volunteer recruitment, retention, wellbeing, and diversity within the overall SES volunteering journey.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, research, state emergency service, survey, sustainable volunteering, volunteering}, issn = {513}, author = {Hawa Farid and Darja Kragt and Patrick Dunlop and Maryl{\`e}ne Gagn{\'e} and Aleksandra Luksyte and Djurre Holtrop} } @article {bnh-5565, title = {Ten years after the Black Saturday fires, what have we learnt from post-fire research?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Ten years ago, 173 people lost their lives and more than 2000 homes were destroyed in the Black Saturday bushfires. The fires of 7 February 2009 led to a royal commission and significant changes to bushfire management throughout Australia. Research played an important role in the royal commission and subsequent changes. This paper reflects on what was learnt from research into human behaviour and community safety undertaken as part of the Bushfire CRC 2009 Victorian Bushfires Research Taskforce. The research involved interviews with over 600 householders and a mail survey of 1314 households affected by the fires. This paper reviews findings from subsequent post-fire research to consider the extent to which there have been changes in findings related to community planning, preparedness and responses to bushfire. The review suggests that many of the issues encountered on Black Saturday{\textemdash}limited awareness of and preparedness for bushfire risk, a tendency for leaving (or evacuating) at the last moment and a commitment to defending, even under the highest levels of fire danger{\textemdash}persist, despite major changes to policy and public messaging.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, bushfires, Emergency management, research}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-ten-years-after-the-black-saturday-fires-what-have-we-learnt-from-post-fire-research/}, author = {J Whittaker} } @article {bnh-5454, title = {Townsville 2019 flood: insights from the field}, number = {468}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Flooding impacted large areas of Townsville from Wednesday 30th January 2019, as a consequence of heavy rainfall across the north of Queensland. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) noted that 370mm of rain fell within 24 hours at Paluma near Townsville. Almost 3300 properties were damaged, thousands were asked to evacuate and there were widespread blackouts . The flooding came in waves, with the initial rainfall causing around 30 cm of flooding in the worst affected areas. This subsided somewhat before more rain fell in the catchment, necessitating the release of water from the Ross River Dam, which led to flood depths of up to 1.6 m over floor height.

Risk Frontiers and Insurance Council of Australia staff visited Townsville on 11th and 12th February, supported by a grant from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. The aim was to undertake unstructured interviews with residents and business operators to gain preliminary insights into impacts and responses to warnings and to examine initial recovery. In total, more than 20 residents and six business operators were spoken to. This briefing note highlights key preliminary themes that arose from this research.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Townsville floods}, author = {Andrew Gissing and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Salom{\'e} Hussein and Jacob Evans and Thomas Mortlock} } @article {bnh-5955, title = {The value of disaster research: a review of the literature}, number = {505}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Increasingly, funders, governments, stakeholders and end-users expect to see tangible evidence that an investment in research is a worthy use of resources; that it informs policy and practice; or to justify the provision of current and future funding. The value of research is measured by assessing the extent to which research has impact. Research impact is defined as {\textquotedblleft}a demonstrable contribution that research makes to the economy, society, culture, national security, public policy or services, health, the environment, or quality of life, beyond contributions to academia{\textquotedblright} (Alla et al.). These value-outcomes are achieved via the pathways of knowledge generation, capacity building, creation of scientific methods, researcher and end-user network collaborations, and policymaking support. Bushfire and natural hazard research evidence is utilised by emergency and fire agencies, governments, policymakers, and householders and landowners.

Research impact assessment is undertaken with the aim of addressing advocacy, analysis, accountability and allocation. It is also a valuable tool for use whilst planning research to ensure a greater impact. A major problem associated with research impact assessment is that of attribution: it is extremely difficult to assign causality for any outcome to a specific piece of research. This difficulty is exacerbated by the usually large time lag between research findings and policy impact, behaviour change, or change in environment or economy.

Various frameworks have been developed to assess the impact of research; whilst the majority of those reviewed were developed for the healthcare sector, there are more broad frameworks which have evolved to encompass a breadth of research areas and level of research. Impact has generally been categorised as economic (direct influence on the economy of the researcher, agency, population, or government as well as knowledge, market and network spill overs); academic (influence within academia, researcher and end-user collaborations, capacity building, training and leadership); and social or societal (a broad category including social values, national security, influence on policy and decision making).

Economic impact has largely been measured using cost-benefit analysis or a return on investment approach (including a social return on investment). Over the effect life cycle, public research is valued at 3 to 8 times the initial investment. Median annual rates of return are between 20\% and 50\% but this varies considerably between sectors. (Georghiou (2015)) . At an aggregate level, the return on investment in Australian disaster research has been estimated at between $1.17 to $1.40 for each dollar invested (Access Economics, 2003, Access Economics, 2008) . As most of the research within the natural hazard sector does not produce goods or services which pass through a market, a non-market method of valuing outcomes is required. The application of public value theory has created methodologies including public value mapping to understand the non-economic and non-scientific goals of research; that is, the core values (public values) of the research.

There is no specific framework for assessing the value of research in the bushfire and wildfire context, however adaptation of the {\textquotedblleft}pathways to research impact{\textquotedblright} tool created by Cruz Rivera et al. (2017) may be helpful in achieving appropriate impact measurement.\ 

}, keywords = {cost-effective, economics, Emergency management, Natural disasters, Policy, risk management}, issn = {505}, author = {Ken Strahan and Adriana Keating and John Handmer} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5695, title = {Valuing volunteers: better understanding the primary motives for volunteering in Australian emergency services}, volume = {Master of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, school = {University of Wollongong}, address = {Wollongong}, abstract = {

Volunteers are the lifeblood of emergency services in Australia, and are integral to the nation{\textquoteright}s emergency management capabilities and overall disaster resilience. The concurrence of an increase in the risks posed by a range of climate change-related natural hazards and a decline in formal volunteering rates threatens Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency preparedness.

The Valuing Volunteers Study aims to provide a better understanding of the primary motives for formal volunteering in Australian emergency services, and the broader contemporary influences on such important civic participation. The research aims to generate evidence-based outputs that inform policies and practices, with the ultimate goal of maximising the retention of emergency service volunteers.

}, keywords = {Community safety, Emergency management, emergency services, SES volunteers, volunteers}, url = {https://apo.org.au/node/244761}, author = {Bill Calcutt} } @article {bnh-5625, title = {Vulnerability Functions for RC Shear Wall Buildings in Australia}, journal = {Earthquake Spectra}, volume = {35}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, pages = {27}, chapter = {333-360}, abstract = {

This research investigates the development of analytical fragility functions for reinforced concrete shear wall buildings in Australia. A building stock for the city of Melbourne is used in conducting an assessment of these types of structures. The assessment uses the best information available for selecting the building parameters applicable to the low-to-moderate seismic region, site soil class, expected earthquake ground motions, and site response. The capacity spectrum method is used to derive vulnerability functions for low-, mid-, and high-rise reinforced concrete shear wall buildings. Although there is a paucity of earthquake damage data available in Australia, some comparisons are made using the results from the fragility functions derived here to the damage data from the Newcastle earthquake in 1989.

}, keywords = {buildings, earthquake, Emergency management, engineering}, doi = {10.1193/120717EQS251M}, url = {https://www.earthquakespectra.org/doi/abs/10.1193/120717EQS251M}, author = {Ryan D. Hoult and Helen M. Goldsworthy and Elisa Lumantarna} } @article {bnh-5573, title = {What do we really mean by {\textquoteleft}floodwater{\textquoteright} and is it ever ok to enter?}, volume = {32}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Flood safety messages used extensively and consistently in Australia are {\textquoteleft}If it{\textquoteright}s flooded, forget it{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Never drive, ride or walk through floodwater{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Don{\textquoteright}t play in flood water{\textquoteright}. These messages are clear, unambiguous and definitive. The problem is, people continue to enter floodwater.

In partnership with State Emergency Services across Australia, we are looking at flood risk communication and examining the two behaviours most closely linked to flood fatalities; driving into and recreating in floodwater. This is part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Flood Risk Communication research.

}, keywords = {communication, Emergency management, flood risk, floodwater}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-april-2019-what-do-we-really-mean-by-floodwater-and-is-it-ever-ok-to-enter/}, author = {Mel Taylor and Katharine Haynes} } @conference {bnh-6400, title = {What{\textquoteright}s wrong and what needs fixing? Stakeholder perspectives on making the future of emergency volunteering}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The modern landscape of emergency volunteering in Australia is characterised by far-reaching change, converging challenges and emerging new opportunities. In this context, a key concern within the emergency management sector today is how the changing landscape threatens the long-term sustainability of Australia{\textquoteright}s formal emergency management volunteer capacity. Some volunteer-based emergency management organisations are responding to the changing landscape with new volunteer strategies, models and management practices. While the pace of change has picked up in recent years, overall it has been slow.

This paper posits that greater engagement in frame reflexive learning and practice can help enable further and faster adaption of emergency volunteering models and approaches to better meet the challenges and opportunities presented by the changing landscape. It aims to support frame reflexive learning and practice by articulating the different ways that {\textquoteright}what{\textquoteright}s wrong and what needs fixing{\textquoteright} is framed among a range of emergency volunteering stakeholder groups. The results are based on interviews and questionnaires conducted with over 180 stakeholders, including representatives from emergency service agencies, disaster welfare organisations, volunteer representative groups, volunteering peak bodies, local governments, and community sector organisations. The paper identifies and describes four key frames currently in use by stakeholders: Competition, Professionalisation, Expectation-Capacity Gap, and Culture Clash. It concludes that deeper and wider collaboration at the sector and community level is needed to enable frame reflexive practice through which multiple frames and their implications can be made more visible and a wider range of options for addressing complex cross-boundary volunteering problems revealed.

}, keywords = {Capability, Emergency management, voulnteering}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Blythe McLennan} } @article {bnh-4573, title = {Animal emergency management in South Australia: a case study of the Sampson Flat bushfire}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, chapter = {60}, keywords = {animals, disaster management., Emergency management, sampson flat}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-animal-emergency-management-in-south-australia-a-case-study-of-the-sampson-flat-bushfire/}, author = {Mel Taylor and Megan McCarthy} } @article {bnh-4690, title = {Bushfire Preparedness, Planning, and Response among Animal Guardians: A South Australian Case Study}, journal = {PLOS Current Disasters}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, abstract = {

Animal ownership has been identified as a risk factor for human survivability of natural disasters. Animal guardians have been reported to react or act in ways that may put their own safety and that of emergency services personnel at risk when faced with a natural disaster. Recent research has suggested that this risk factor could be reconfigured as a protective factor, whereby desires to save animals from natural disaster harm could motivate increased planning and preparedness behaviours amongst animal guardians. However, there has been no research to determine if bushfire planning and response behaviours differ between pet owners with low and high attachment; and how the relationship may differ in relation to small or large animals. Methods and procedure: We investigated the relationship between people{\textquoteright}s emotional attachment to different types of pets and their preparation and actions during the Pinery bushfire in South Australia in November 2015. Thirty-four people who were impacted by the fire participated in an online survey. Data were collected about their preparedness, planning and response behaviours as well as their animal attachment (high or low). Results: We identified 10 characteristics (behaviours, attributes, skills and beliefs) associated with high animal attachment scores, and eight associated with low animal attachment scores. Discussion: Our discussion of the differences in demographics, preparedness, planning and response characteristics of participants with high and low animal attachment confirms research suggesting that animal guardians take risks to save their animals during disasters. Our findings also support recent propositions that animal attachment and ownership could be used to increase the natural disaster preparedness and survivability of animal guardians. However, making sure that animal attachment functions as a protective factor requires active and effective intervention through education, behaviour change and social marketing strategies. Whilst our study is high in ecological validity, future research with larger samples sizes is required to determine the generalisability of our findings to animal owners and guardians in other locations, facing fires with other characteristics, especially for owners and guardians with low levels of attachment.

}, keywords = {animals, disasters, Emergency management, Planning, Preparedness, response.}, doi = {10.6084}, url = {http://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/bushfire-preparedness-planning-and-response-among-animal-guardians-a-south-australian-case-study/}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Dwyer, Lisel and Kirrilly Thompson} } @article {bnh-4688, title = {Changing capabilities of emergency service organisations}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

In our literature review on the costs and benefits of increasing diversity, we also outlined the changing context in which emergency service organisations (ESOs) (that include emergency management) were operating. In summary, the change in the context was due to:

{\textbullet} The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters due to climate change (National Strategy for Disaster Resilience) (COAG, 2011)

{\textbullet} The increased availability of new and improved technology to respond to natural disasters

{\textbullet} The increased need to serve a much more diverse community (Smiley, 2010, pp 24, 30).

This has meant that both the capabilities and the tasks undertaken by the ESOs have had to change to respond to this changing context, and tasks have changed as demonstrated by the types of incidents and emergencies attended.\  These new capabilities and new tasks could be undertaken by retraining the existing workforce. However, the development of these new capabilities and new tasks provides an opportunity to recruit new staff with the required skills from more diverse backgrounds to undertake these new and/or expanding tasks. The literature review suggested that a well-managed, more diverse workforce could produce better performance outcomes for tasks of increasing complexity. In some areas such as new technology capabilities and communication with diverse communities, it may be necessary to recruit those with more diverse backgrounds to meet basic operational objectives.

}, keywords = {Capability, diversity., emergencies, Emergency management, Learning}, issn = {364}, author = {Neelam Maharaj and Bruce Rasmussen} } @article {bnh-4689, title = {Community values survey}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Values are the basis of decision-making. They direct the beliefs that determine what is most important and so underpin desirable goals that motivate action (Schwartz, 2012, p4).
Understanding similar and differing values is increasingly being used by organisations as a way to understand gaps between their organization, clients and communities they serve. For emergency management services to better represent the diversity of the communities they service, they need to not just understand the demographics of those communities, but also the values across their communities, particularly in relation to diversity.
This study undertook a community survey across 539 community members to ascertain values and attitudes in relation to Emergency Management Organisations (EMO). The survey used Schwartz{\textquoteright}s measurement of values, comprised of ten different values, based around four key areas: openness to change, self-transcendence, conservation and self-enhancement, as a basis. Questions from the Schwartz values study were amalgamated with the World Values Survey to develop the survey. The demographic varied across age, gender and cultural spectrums.
The data from this survey provide a baseline for understanding existing community values relating to diversity and inclusion. These results will be compared to those held by EMOs and their staff in later work. This has potential to help discern where there may be significant similarities and differences between EMS organisations and the community that influence current and future strength and capability of diversity and inclusion in the emergency management sector.

}, keywords = {decision-making, diversity, Emergency management, inclusion, multi-hazard., Preparedness, response}, issn = {365}, author = {Craig Cormick} } @article {bnh-4461, title = {Effective Representation of River Geometry in Hydraulic Flood Forecast Models}, journal = {Water Resources Research}, volume = {54}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

Bathymetric data are a critical input to hydraulic models. However, river depth and shape cannot be systematically observed remotely, and field data are both scarce and expensive to collect. In flood modeling, river roughness and geometry compensate for each other, with different parameter sets often being able to map model predictions equally well to the observed data, commonly known as equifinality. This study presents a numerical experiment to investigate an effective yet parsimonious representation of channel geometry that can be used for operational flood forecasting. The LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model was used to simulate a hypothetical flood event in the Clarence catchment (Australia). A high-resolution model simulation based on accurate bathymetric field data was used to benchmark coarser model simulations based on simplified river geometries. These simplified river geometries were derived from a combination of globally available empirical formulations, remote sensing data, and a limited number of measurements. Model predictive discrepancy between simulations with field data and simplified geometries allowed an assessment of the geometry impact on inundation dynamics. In this study site, the channel geometrical representation for a reliable inundation forecast could be achieved using remote sensing-derived river width values combined with a few measurements of river depth sampled at strategic locations. Furthermore, this study showed that spatially distributed remote sensing-derived inundation levels at the very early stages of a flood event have the potential to support the effective diagnosis of errors in model implementations.

}, keywords = {artificial neural networks (ANNs), calibration and evaluation, data allocation, data splitting, Emergency management, floods., hydrological models, model evaluation bias}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021765}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017WR021765/full}, author = {Stefania Grimaldi and Yuan Li and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-4547, title = {Evaluation of Survive and Thrive}, number = {359}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, pages = {94}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Survive and Thrive pilot program is an intensive two year bushfire education program for primary school students in Grade 5/6. It is delivered through a community-based partnership between local CFA brigades and local primary schools. To date, the program has been delivered in the localities of Anglesea and Strathewen. In Anglesea, the partnership between Anglesea CFA and Anglesea Primary School was established in 2013 and the program has been running for four years. In Strathewen, the partnership between Strathewen Primary School and Arthurs Creek Fire Brigade was established in 2016 and the program has been running for 18 months.

The purpose of this evaluation was to examine the short-term and intermediate-term outcomes of the program in both Anglesea and Strathewen and to identify the key mechanisms and processes that contributed to those outcomes. By identifying the mechanisms and processes that contributed to program outcomes, the evaluation also seeks to identify what aspects of the program generated the most valuable outcomes for the resources invested. An additional aim of the evaluation was to examine key factors influencing the ongoing sustainability of the program in Anglesea and Strathewen and to identify a possible pathway toward scaled implementation.

The evaluation employed a mixed-methods design involving both quantitative and qualitative methods. The qualitative measures, which included semi-structured interviews and focus group interviews were the main focus; however, these were supplemented by a quantitative survey that was administered to both children and parents.\ \ 

}, keywords = {Bushfire, child, communities., Emergency management, Natural disasters, recovery, reduction, risk}, issn = {359}, author = {Briony Towers and Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-4677, title = {Evidence to support incident management team capability}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {5}, chapter = {44}, abstract = {

In 2015, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) commissioned a review of the evidence base to establish the rationale for capabilities central to effective incident management. The review focused on the capabilities required for senior AIIMS Level 3\ Incident Management Team roles. Results were used to inform standards for the AFAC Emergency Management Professionalisation Scheme. The review considered the human factors and emergency management literature as well as research conducted through the Bushfire CRC. Analysis and synthesis of the evidence identified three broad capabilities, each with three sub-capabilities important in incident management. The three categories were to model leadership and teamwork, to think and plan strategically and demonstrate self-awareness. This article outlines the evidence base and the capabilities developed through this review and contributes to the evidence base for incident management capability. Guidance on what will be needed in continuing professional development program is provided.

}, keywords = {communication, decision-making, Emergency management, EMPS, incident management, multi-hazard.}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jul-2018-evidence-to-support-incident-management-team-capability/}, author = {Owen, Christine and Peter Hayes and Brooks, B and Cameron Scott and Geoff Conway} } @article {bnh-4678, title = {A formative evaluation of the Triple Zero Kids{\textquoteright} Challenge Teacher{\textquoteright}s Guide}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {6}, chapter = {64}, abstract = {

The\ Triple Zero Kids{\textquoteright} Challenge\ is an online, interactive safety game and a mobile application. It provides young children in Australia with essential information on how to identify and report legitimate emergencies by calling Triple Zero (000). As a companion resource, the Triple Zero Kids{\textquoteright} Challenge Teacher{\textquoteright}s Guide provides educators of lower-primary school students with a series of structured learning activities to consolidate and extend the key messages of the online game. To ensure that the learning activities in the guide are both feasible and appropriate for the target age group, a formative evaluation was conducted with lower-primary students and their teachers. This paper reports on the results of the evaluation and highlights the importance of formative evaluation to the development of safety education programs for children. While the evaluation indicated that the learning activities were feasible and appropriate for lower-primary school students, it also identified the need for numerous modifications and improvements that have been incorporated into a revised 2017 version of the guide.

}, keywords = {children, communication, Emergency management, information., Kids}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jul-2018-a-formative-evaluation-of-the-triple-zero-kids-challenge-teacher-s-guide/}, author = {Briony Towers and Mark Whyrbo} } @article {bnh-4571, title = {How emergency services organisations can {\textendash} and do {\textendash} utilise research}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, abstract = {

In emergency management organisations, the drive to use research to inform practice has been growing for some time. This paper discusses findings from a survey used to investigate perceived effectiveness of a number of important processes in research utilisation. In 2016, a survey was completed\  by 266 respondents in 29 fire and emergency services agencies. Questions sought answers on perceived effectiveness in disseminating research within agencies, assessing and evaluating the impacts on agency practice of the research, implementing agency changes that may be needed, monitoring processes to track changes and communicate outcomes of changes made as a result of research. The study found that there were differences in levels of perceived effectiveness between those in senior management and front-line service positions. The differences suggest that front-line services personnel have lower levels of perceived effectiveness in how research is disseminated. The study also found agencies had different approaches to keep up-to-date with research advances. An examination of the activities identified four developmental levels of research utilisation maturity. The findings suggest more work is needed to better understand the enablers and constraints to utilising research to support development of evidence-informed practice.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, lessons management, Research utilisation, research., teamwork}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-apr-2018-how-emergency-services-organisations-can-and-do-utilise-research/}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-6347, title = {Increasing emergency management capacity through business sector involvement }, number = {489}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Catastrophic disasters overwhelm the capacity and capability of existing emergency management frameworks. To reduce the occurrence of such events it is essential to consider the use of alternate sources of capability and capacity. The business sector has a history of involvement during disasters. This report considers models for the utilisation of the business sector in disaster management and provides suggestions for improvement within the Australian context.\ 

}, keywords = {business, cascading catastrophe, Emergency management, literature review}, issn = {489}, author = {Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-7973, title = {An integrative review of the 2017 Port Hill fires{\textquoteright} impact on animals, their owners and first responders{\textquoteright} encounters with the human-animal interface}, journal = {Australasian Journal of Disaster and Truma Studies}, volume = {22}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, abstract = {

Animal welfare emergency management is a critical component of modern emergency management, because the powerful bond between people and animals influences decisions and actions taken during emergency events. High risk behaviour and poor decision-making can negatively affect evacuation compliance, observance of cordons, the safety of frontline responders and the psychosocial recovery of responders and animal owners. This paper reviews documents, including official reports, peer-reviewed journal articles and media reports, concerning the impacts of the 2017 Port Hill Fires on animals, with the aim of providing direction for future research and identifying other information needs. Key themes were identified, including evacuation, cordons, animal rescue, communication and co-ordination. The implications of these for emergency management practice are discussed, including recommendations to: consider animals across all phases of wildfire management; enhance emergency responders{\textquoteright} understandings of animal owners{\textquoteright} emotional drivers; develop a national animal loss database; include animal ownership in relevant public education; leverage the human-animal bond as a motivator for mitigation and emergency preparedness; more carefully consider animal evacuation logistics, and; develop relevant wildfire response strategy.

}, keywords = {2017 Port Hills fires, Animal welfare, Emergency management, Wildfire}, url = {https://www.massey.ac.nz/~trauma/issues/2018-2/AJDTS_22_2_Squance.pdf}, author = {Hayley Squance and David Johnston and C Stewart and Chris Riley} } @article {bnh-6761, title = {Opportunities and constraints identified in existing frameworks in use for organisational learning}, number = {543}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This deliverable is adapted from the Owen, Bethune \& Krusel (2018) Report on Research Utilisation Review. This review was a collaboration between AFAC, the BNHCRC and the Decision tools project {\textendash} organisational learning stream. The review included previous data collection about use of BNHCRC tools (e.g., websites, hazard notes) as well as the opportunity to collect data nationally to inform the Decision Making tools organisational learning stream. That included the work further developing and validating a research utilisation matrix and to identify opportunities and constraints in agencies for organisational learning.

The analysis reported here continues to be further advanced in discussions with the Knowledge Innovation and Research Utilisation Network (KIRUN) where the findings were presented in August 2018. Based on that consultation work continues to be advanced to establish the next deliverable:

Framework synthesising existing agency practice in assessing and evaluating evidence that may require organisational learning and change{\textquotedblright}. The further development will also facilitate the development of papers for publication.

}, keywords = {data, Emergency management, organisational learning, Research utilisation}, issn = {543}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-4556, title = {Risk modelling as a tool to support natural hazard risk management in New Zealand local government}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {28}, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, pages = {10}, chapter = {610}, abstract = {

Due to New Zealand{\textquoteright}s exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards, it is important for local government to have tools that enable effective use of its natural hazard risk information. This paper explores the use of risk modelling as a tool that can support local government to better understand, manage, and communicate natural hazard risk. Focus group sessions were held with\ emergency management\ and other natural hazard practitioners in councils across New Zealand to understand their perceptions on the value of risk modelling tools, particularly {\textquoteleft}RiskScape{\textquoteright}. While practitioners see the value in the use of risk modelling relating to communication,\ decision making, planning and\ emergency response\ purposes, they also see a number of challenges. Challenges identified for the use of risk modelling relate to how emergency management and natural hazard risk is perceived and managed, issues with connecting information and developing data, and the capability of risk modelling software. Underlying these challenges is the recognition that while risk modelling can help span the science-policy interface, it is the problems with this interface that slow its development. However, with ongoing mutual engagement, risk modelling can become an effective tool to communicate natural hazard risk and better inform natural hazard policy and procedure.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Local government, Natural hazard risk management, Risk modelling, RiskScape, Science-policy, Tsunami.}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.01.011}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918300529}, author = {Miles Crawford and David Johnston and K Crowley and W S A Saunders and S H Potter} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5458, title = {Sleep and stress in on-call fire and emergency service workers}, volume = {PhD}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Some aspects of sleep quantity and quality may be affected when on-call. The two main stress systems are largely unaffected by on-call work, with the exception of the cortisol awakening response. Two characteristics of the cortisol awakening response were blunted when on-call with a night callout compared to when off-call.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, emergency services, Fire}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30110841}, author = {Sarah J Hall} } @conference {bnh-6026, title = {Analytical Model for Seismic Retrofit of Concrete Beam-Column Joint using Diagonal Metallic Haunch}, booktitle = {World Congress on Advances in Structural Engineering and Mechanics}, year = {2017}, month = {01/09/2017}, publisher = {Swinburne University of Technology}, organization = {Swinburne University of Technology}, address = {Korea}, abstract = {

Exterior beam-column joint is typically the weakest link in a limited-ductile concrete frame structure. The use of diagonal haunch element has been considered as a desirable seismic retrofit option for reducing the seismic demand at the joint. Previous research globally has focused on implementing double haunches, whilst the performance of using single haunch element as a less-invasive and more architecturally favourable retrofit option has not been investigated. In this study, the feasibility of using a single haunch system for retrofitting RC exterior beam-column joint is explored. This paper presents the key formulations and illustrates its effectiveness by investigating the changes in the shear demand at the joint through a case study.

}, keywords = {building, building disaster proof, construction, Emergency management, engineering, hazards, risk management}, author = {Hing-Ho Tsang and Zabihi, Alireza and Emad F Gad and John Wilson} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4629, title = {Estimating areal rainfall time series using input data reduction, model inversion, and data assimilation}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {146}, school = {Monash University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are devastating natural hazards that can have severe socio-economic impacts and lead to a loss of life. Consequently, the key driver for this research is to provide techniques that will lead to an increase in flood forecast skill. As fluvial floods are a direct result of rainfall, detailed knowledge of uncertainties in rainfall observations provides a fundamental foundation for improving both rainfall and flood forecast skill. As the understanding of uncertainties present in rainfall time series is developed, so too will the confidence in rainfall forecasts, and short- and long-term streamflow forecasts. For a description of rainfall uncertainty to be complete it must take into account uncertainty when rainfall was not observed, thus allowing, model structural errors to be correctly identified, analyzed, and treated. Therefore the focus of this thesis is to develop a robust methodology to estimate rainfall time series and its uncertainty such that it is consistent with both streamflow and soil moisture observations. To effectively estimate rainfall time series, a method to reduce hydrological input data dimensionality was identified. The effective reduction of hydrological input data dimensionality allows modern parameter estimation algorithms to simultaneously estimate rainfall time series and model parameters. Due to their wide-spread use as model input data reduction techniques in other fields, the discrete cosine transform (DCT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) were used, for comparative purposes, to reduce the dimensionality of observed rainfall time series for the 438 catchments in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) data set. Once the time series were reduced to a small number of parameters, the rainfall time series were reconstructed for comparison with the observed hyetographs. The rainfall time signals are then reconstructed and compared to the observed hyetographs using standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. Analysis of the results demonstrate that, when compared to the DCT, the DWT is superior at preserving both short- and long-term rainfall patterns. Second, the DWT was used to reduce the dimensionality of the input rainfall time x series for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The DREAM(ZS) sampling algorithm, in conjunction with a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow, was then used to estimate the input rainfall time series. Model parameters and rainfall time series were simultaneously estimated. The inclusion of rainfall in the estimation process improved the root mean square error (RMSE) of streamflow simulations by a factor of up to 1.78. This was achieved while estimating an entire rainfall time series, inclusive of days when none was observed. Last, rainfall time series for the catchment of Warwick were estimated using three different rainfall-runoff models. Using the rainfall time series and model parameter estimates, remotely sensed soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth observing system (AMSR-E) satellites were assimilated into each of the models using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Through analysis of the innovations from the observed and simulated soil moisture it was found that the combination of model choice and remotely sensed soil moisture product had a significant impact on the quality of rainfall estimated. When compared to streamflow simulations obtained via the sole estimation of model parameters, all models that jointly estimated rainfall time series and model parameters produced superior streamflow estimates. Rainfall estimates obtained using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model were the most realistic. When the SMOS remotely sensed soil moisture product was assimilated into the SAC-SMA, innovations that indicated errors are of a Gaussian nature were obtained. Further, streamflow simulations obtained from the SAC-SMA had the best RMSE. The research presented in this thesis developed a methodology that can be used to estimate and evaluate rainfall estimates obtained using model input data reduction, model inversion, and data assimilation techniques. These rainfall estimates can be used to condition rainfall forecasts and consequently improve flood forecast skill.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, hydrology, modelling., rainfall}, url = {http://users.monash.edu.au/~jpwalker/theses/AshleyWright.pdf}, author = {Ashley Wright} } @article {bnh-4626, title = {Estimating rainfall time series and model parameter distributions using model data reduction and inversion techniques}, journal = {AGU}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, abstract = {

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise, and timely flood forecasts, there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated within an entire rainfall time series, even when rainfall was not observed. The estimation of an entire rainfall time series and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of entire rainfall input time series to be considered when estimating model parameters, and provides the ability to improve rainfall estimates from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate entire rainfall time series from streamflow records are unable to adequately invert complex nonlinear hydrologic systems. This study aims to explore the use of wavelets in the estimation of rainfall time series from streamflow records. Using the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia, it is shown that model parameter distributions and an entire rainfall time series can be estimated. Including rainfall in the estimation process improves streamflow simulations by a factor of up to 1.78. This is achieved while estimating an entire rainfall time series, inclusive of days when none was observed. It is shown that the choice of wavelet can have a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. Combining the use of a likelihood function that considers rainfall and streamflow errors with the use of the DWT as a model data reduction technique allows the joint inference of hydrologic model parameters along with rainfall.

}, keywords = {catchments, communities., Emergency management, Flood, rainfall, streamflow}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017WR020442}, author = {Ashley Wright and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-4619, title = {Statistical characterisation of wind fields over complex terrain with applications in bushfire modelling}, journal = {Research Gate}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, abstract = {

The propagation of bushfire across the landscape is dependent on a variety of environmental factors, but the wind, in particular, has a major effect on both the speed and direction of fire propagation. As such, bushfire spread models, which underpin successful bushfire management, require accurate knowledge of the pattern of winds across the landscape. This can be problematic over complex terrain where winds exhibit considerable spatial variability due to wind-terrain interactions, and where detailed measurements of wind characteristics are comparatively rare. This thesis contributes two new wind datasets to address the previous lack of data available to develop and validate wind models over complex terrain. It also details analyses that focus on the statistical characterisation of wind as joint wind direction distributions, which represent the directional wind response to changing topography and surface roughness. A novel method for toroidal surface fitting is introduced and implemented to estimate the true continuous response from discrete observed data. This new method, which relies on a conceptually simple adaptation of planar techniques, is compared to the limited range of available toroidal surface estimation techniques and is shown to perform as well as, if not better than, these more sophisticated methods. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to highlight the sensitivity of statistical comparison tests to alternative distribution structures, and to validate bivariate and circular extensions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. These tests are applied to directional wind response pairs, showing that vegetation regrowth has a significant but varying impact across complex terrain. Finally, this thesis demonstrates how statistical approaches can be used to complement current physics-based wind modelling methods. The resulting probabilistic representations provide more accurate predictions of wind direction variability, and are better suited to emerging ensemble-based bushfire prediction frameworks. As such, they provide a superior characterisation of uncertainty across the fire modelling process; ultimately enabling fire managers to make more informed decisions.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, bushfire., Emergency management, Fire, propagation, wind modelling}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322212511_Statistical_characterisation_of_wind_fields_over_complex_terrain_with_applications_in_bushfire_modelling}, author = {Rachael Quill} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6491, title = {Disaster Resilient Communities: Engagement with Spontaneous Volunteer Groups}, volume = {Masters of Environments}, year = {2016}, month = {06/2016}, school = {University of Melbourne}, type = {Masters}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This study tackles the confliction between the willingness of the altruistic to assist in times of disaster against the capacity of the emergency management system to effective utilise the human resource effectively. The aim is to investigate the role of Spontaneous Volunteer Groups (SVGs) in strengthening community disaster resilience through a qualitative, context-driven research approach from a pragmatist viewpoint utilising open-ended questions. This approach is problem-driven occurring in the particular context of severe disaster events where traditional services are often overwhelmed and resources stressed. The data was collected from interviewees who have contributed significantly to the emergency management sector. The interviews were recorded, stored, analysed and emergent generalised and specific themes discussed in reference to the criteria set out in the national 2015 Spontaneous Volunteer Strategy.
The study contends that if the Australian community and emergency management sector are serious in achieving a society able to genuinely share responsibilities for resilience to disasters, and build community capacity, then the following should be promoted: inclusiveness {\textendash} including allowing SVGs to self-organise; power-sharing; transparency; engagement with volunteer motivations ; flexible volunteering models ; preparedness to manage volunteer emergence; disaster education and training, activities identification within all disaster phases; forming strong and lasting community links; addressing risk and liability; developing on-the-spot training procedures; sharing information , skills and knowledge; communication clarity; key liaisons; altering mindsets; social media engagement and essentially developing plans and actionable procedures for empowering people to demonstrate their resilience. Currently this path can be a difficult one to follow, despite its promotion with many national strategies, due to restrictions, barriers and complexities within the sector.
The expanded upon strategy can assist the government and Emergency Service Agencies (ESAs), in the face of limited policy, to recognise their responsibilities to operate together and engage meaningfully with alternative forms of assistance in a less restrictive emergency management system, to promote optimal protection of communities from future disasters. In complex environments ESAs must demonstrate flexibility to efficiently adapt, change and restore new and more resilient function to communities.

}, keywords = {communities, disasters, Emergency management, resilience, spontaneous volunteers, volunteer groups, volunteers}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/11343/229442}, author = {Gemma Gray} } @article {bnh-2616, title = {Emergency management perspectives on volunteered geographic information: Opportunities, challenges and change}, journal = {Computers, Environment and Urban Systems}, volume = {57}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, abstract = {

Volunteered geographic information (VGI) refers to the widespread creation and sharing of geographic information by private citizens, often through platforms such as online mapping tools, social media, and smartphone applications. VGI has shifted the ways information is created, shared, used and experienced, with important implications for applications of geospatial data, including emergency management. Detailed interviews with 13 emergency management professionals from eight organisations across five Australian states provided insights into the impacts of VGI on official emergency management. Perceived opportunities presented by VGI included improved communication, acquisition of diverse local information, and increased community engagement in disaster management. Identified challenges included the digital divide, data management, misinformation, and liability concerns. Significantly, VGI disrupts the traditional top-down structure of emergency management and reflects a culture shift away from authoritative control of information. To capitalise on the opportunities of VGI, agencies need to share responsibility and be willing to remain flexible in supporting positive community practises, including VGI. Given the high accountability and inherently responsive nature of decision making in disaster management, it provides a useful lens through which to examine the impacts of VGI on official authoritative systems more broadly. This analysis of the perceptions of emergency management professionals suggests changes to traditional systems that involve decentralisation of power and increased empowerment of citizens, where value is increasingly recognised in both expert and citizen-produced information, initiatives and practises.

}, keywords = {Disaster management, Emergency management, Geospatial data, VGI, Volunteered geographic information}, doi = {10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2016.02.009}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0198971516300175}, author = {Haworth, B} } @article {bnh-1657, title = {Children{\textquoteright}s knowledge of bushfire emergency response}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {24}, year = {2015}, month = {10/03/2015}, pages = {179-189}, chapter = {179}, abstract = {

In the aftermath of the Black Saturday bushfire disaster, the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission recommended that bushfire education be made a formal part of the Australian national curriculum. Crucially, the success of any hazards education program depends on the degree to which the learner{\textquoteright}s existing knowledge and experience is accommodated in the education process. Yet accommodating children{\textquoteright}s knowledge in bushfire education is hampered by a lack of research on how children conceptualise bushfire hazards. To address this gap, this paper presents a detailed qualitative analysis of children{\textquoteright}s knowledge of bushfire hazards with a specific focus on emergency response. Across four bushfire-prone locations in south-eastern Australia, 26 focus group interviews were conducted with 87 children aged between 8 and 12 years. To better understand the construction of children{\textquoteright}s knowledge, individual interviews were also conducted with 37 parents. Through their engagement in the research process, children demonstrated a capacity for engaging in serious discussions about bushfire hazards and although their knowledge was often characterised by gaps and misconceptions, they also demonstrated a capacity for understanding the fundamental principles of emergency response, particularly when they had been involved in bushfire planning within their household.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, hazards education, Wildfire}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13153}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF13153}, author = {Briony Towers} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4631, title = {Sleep restriction across a simulated firefighting deployment: The impact on acute stress responses}, year = {2015}, month = {12/2015}, pages = {317}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Exposure to stressors set in motion inflammatory, cortisol, heart rate and mood responses that allow the body to maintain normal healthy function. Severe or chronic stressors however, may adversely alter the action of these stress responses and lead to adverse health outcomes. Periods of sleep restriction and performing physical work are two stressors routinely faced by wildland firefighters, yet the combined impact that these demands have on firefighters{\textquoteright} acute stress responses is poorly understood. Therefore, the objective of this thesis was to investigate the effect of physical firefighting work and sleep restriction on firefighters{\textquoteright} cytokine, cortisol and heart rate responses, their interactions, and how mood may influence any observed physiological changes.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, firefighters, physiological., Sleep, sleep deprivation}, url = {http://dro.deakin.edu.au/eserv/DU:30083644/wolkow-sleeprestriction-2015A.pdf}, author = {Alexander Wolkow} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6626, title = {Spanning boundaries to support effective multi-agency coordination in emergency management}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, school = {University of Tasmania}, abstract = {

Modern disasters are frequently beyond the management capability of any one organization and repeatedly necessitate an approach requiring multiple organizations such as those witnessed following the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the Haiti earthquake in 2010. An increased susceptibility of societies impacted by natural and man-made hazards consequently requires a coordinated response from public and private organizations in an effort to mitigate the risk to the affected communities. Failure to enact an adequate response to manage the consequences of disastrous events has the potential to create widespread death and injury to an already vulnerable global population.


This doctoral thesis by publication draws attention to the specialist workers involved in emergency management arrangements, commonly called liaison officers, from organizations involved in multi-agency coordination efforts. Liaison officers are required to span organizational boundaries to provide linkages between organizations engaged in emergency management events. Consequently, they are deemed fundamental to the success of any multi-agency coordination approach. However, the work of liaison officers is problematic as they are invariably confronted by a myriad of social, organizational and technological complexities. The unique nature of multi-agency coordination in emergency management is generally highlighted by coordination failure and continues to be inadequately addressed in practice and in research.


The principal aim of the research was to explore the work of liaison officers involved in multi-agency arrangements and suggest a framework for improving multi-agency coordination in emergency management. The research was thus embedded in human factors drawing on theories that also provided a contextual understanding of dynamic socio-cultural environments. In so doing the research explicitly drew upon the methodology of core-task analysis which is a conceptual modelling approach for the analysis of empirical qualitative data that is typically suited to high reliability environments.


The qualitative data used in this research was collected from a series of individual interviews, observational studies and focus group interviews conducted with liaison officers from public and private organizations across three Australian states. The findings are presented in five scientific research papers. Three of the papers have been published in internationally recognized peer-reviewed journals. The final two papers have been submitted for publication and are currently under review.


The contributions of this research have enhanced knowledge development and provided insights that can be utilised in evidence-based practice in emergency management. The theoretical contribution provided an insight into the work of liaison officers in the context of emergency management arrangements. The methodological contribution permitted the application of core-task analysis to the domain of emergency management where it had not previously been applied. Finally, facets of this research have recently been implemented by industry into operational doctrine and organizational learning processes.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, liaison officer, multi agency coordination}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/22781/}, author = {Steve Curnin} } @article {BF-4279, title = {Gendered communication and public safety: Women, men and incident management}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management, The}, volume = {28}, year = {2013}, month = {04/2013}, pages = {3-10}, chapter = {3}, abstract = {Managing emergency events requires incident management teams to actively pool their ideas and concerns to resolve challenges, although this frequently does not occur. Using a mix of quantitative and qualitative research methods, this paper explores whether gender may be an underlying factor. The quantitative findings indicate that women report different experiences of communication in incident management teams. In seeking to provide an account as to why this might be the case 24 qualitative interviews with incident management team members were examined. The findings reveal cultural challenges to team communication and specifically a masculinist culture (i.e. acting with high confidence and bravado). The legitimacy of these displays is contested by both men and women because of their negative impacts on team communication and co-operation. Strategies for overcoming the negative impacts of masculinist cultures and the role of leadership and training are discussed.}, keywords = {Ability Testing, Emergency management, Evaluation, Psychological aspects, Public safety, Public speaking, Social conditions, Women}, issn = {1324-1540}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=364034915486329;res=IELHSS}, author = {Owen, Christine} } @article {BF-4278, title = {Effects of networks on learning during emergency events}, journal = {Disaster Prevention and Management}, volume = {21}, year = {2012}, month = {2012}, pages = {584-598}, chapter = {584}, abstract = {Purpose {\textendash} This paper aims to explore the relationship between learning and the social networks employed within the context of emergency management. It hypothesises, using social network theory as a framework for analysis, that changes to interconnectedness between actors are implicated in the potential for those actors to learn and improvise in dynamically changing and emergent conditions. Design/methodology/approach {\textendash} To test the hypotheses, survey data were investigated which were collected as part of a research study with the support of the Australian Bushfire Co-operative Research Centre (CRC). This survey was completed by experienced personnel reflecting on a number of indicators in an emergency event. Findings {\textendash} Results show that increases in actors{\textquoteright} involvement within the social emergency management network influences the ability of those actors to engage in learning-related work activity. The paper infers that by developing learning related resources within the context of their social interactions these emergency personnel are better able to adapt and improvise in complex emergency events. Research limitations/implications {\textendash} As an area of further research, it would be useful to apply the existing theoretical model to the context of another domain, preferably one that shares characteristics of uncertainty and unstable environments. Originality/value {\textendash} Most existing studies of learning theory in human networks have focused on learning in situations requiring stable working relationships with no environmental uncertainties. In this paper, it is argued that the designs of existing models are useful as a building block, yet flawed for application within the context of disaster management. By presenting a model of learning-related work activity, as an ongoing aspect of network connectedness, personnel within emergency services organisations can strengthen their capacity to be flexible and adaptable.}, keywords = {Adaptability, Australia, Bushfire, Emergency management, Fire, Learning, Social networks}, issn = {0965-3562}, doi = {10.1108/09653561211278716 }, url = {http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=17063627}, author = {Jafar Hamra and Liaquat Hossain and Owen, Christine and Alireza Abbasi} }