@article {bnh-8377, title = {Implementation of spatially-varying wind adjustment factor for wildfire simulations}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {163}, year = {2023}, month = {05/2023}, pages = {105660}, abstract = {

The behaviour and rate of spread of a wildfire is strongly affected by local wind conditions depending on topography and surrounding vegetation. The wind speed within dense vegetation can be substantially lower than the open wind speed above the vegetation. This is commonly accounted for by applying a local correction factor to the local wind speed which can be called the wind adjustment factor (WAF). WAFs are often difficult to calculate and are usually based estimates for a particular vegetation type. Variation in the vegetation may result in spatially varying WAFs. We implement a model for spatially-varying WAFs based on leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation height data, which can be derived from remote sensing data sources. The model is implemented within Spark an operational wildfire prediction framework. Simulations of historical fires using the spatially-varying WAF model generally provided improved predictions compared to recorded fire extents than simulations without a spatially-varying WAF.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, modeling, spread, WAF, Wildfire, wind adjustment factor}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105660}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364815223000464?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Duncan Sutherland and Mahmood Rashid and James Hilton and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-7785, title = {Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire prediction and meteorological products provided by the Bureau of Meteorology to Australian fire agencies}, journal = {Atmosphere}, volume = {11}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, chapter = {1380}, abstract = {

Coupled fire-atmosphere models are simulators that integrate a fire component and an atmospheric component, with the objective of capturing interactions between the fire and atmosphere. As a fire releases energy in the combustion process, the surrounding atmosphere adjusts in response to the energy fluxes; coupled fire-atmosphere (CFA) models aim to resolve the processes through which these adjustments occur. Several CFA models have been developed internationally, mostly by meteorological institutions and primarily for use as a research tool. Research studies have provided valuable insights into some of the atmospheric processes surrounding a fire. The potential to run CFA models in real time is currently limited due to the intensive computational requirements. In addition, there is a need for systematic verification to establish their accuracy and the appropriate circumstances for their use. The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing relevant and accurate meteorological information to Australian fire agencies to inform decisions for the protection of life and property and to support hazard management activities. The inclusion of temporally and spatially detailed meteorological fields that adjust in response to the energy released by a fire is seen as a component in developing fire prediction systems that capture some of the most impactful fire and weather behavior. The Bureau{\textquoteright}s ten-year research and development plan includes a commitment to developing CFA models, with the objective of providing enhanced services to Australian fire agencies. This paper discusses the operational use of fire predictions and simulators, learnings from CFA models and potential future directions for the Bureau in using CFA models to support fire prediction activities.

}, keywords = {coupled fire-atmosphere, Fire, meteorology, modeling}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121380}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/12/1380}, author = {Mika Peace and Joseph Charney and John Bally} } @conference {bnh-5504, title = {Simulated transport of short-range embers in an idealised bushfire}, booktitle = {6th International Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

Mega-bushfires like the 2009 Black Saturday, Australia, the 2016 Fort McMurray fire, Canada, and the 2018 Carr fire, USA cause billions of dollars in damage and result in loss of life. The sources of ignition of the fires are often natural or accidental such as lightning, campfire, cigarette butts, or machinery and tools (Miller, Plucinski et al. 2017). The frequency of bushfires isset to increase due to the positive feedback effect of climate change (Jolly, Cochrane et al. 2015). There is an increasing trend of settlement of people at wildland-urban-interface (WUI) (Radeloff, Helmers et al. 2018) which increases the impact of bushfire. Accurate and quick prediction of the evacuation of communities and the behaviour of a bushfire will make a difference in reducing the impact of bushfire (Mell, McDermott et al. 2010, Ronchi, Gwynne et al. 2017).

}, keywords = {bushfire management, fire behavour. fire impacts, modeling}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332142658_Simulated_transport_of_short-range_embers_in_an_idealised_bushfire}, author = {Rahul Wadhwani and Khalid Moinuddin and Duncan Sutherland} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6159, title = {The impact of bushfires on water quality}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy }, year = {2018}, month = {01/2018}, school = {RMIT}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Population growth in urban areas leads to a higher demand in water use. Quality of water is an important factor not only from an aesthetic view, but also for ecological health purposes.

This paper presented research that is designed to develop a spatial approach to support the planning of the water quality in the areas subjected to bushfires, using a case study from state of Victoria. In particular, this research involved the implementation of a hydrological model in order to predict the river water quality, to assist in the decision-making process. The impact of bushfires on water quality can be highly variable for the most of the individual water quality parametres. This variability is caused by a number of landscape influences and climatic factors, most notably rainfall. High magnitude and intense rainfall events soon after fire generate the largest impacts on water quality and sometimes trigger extreme erosion events.

There are many important water quality parameters that must be taken into account when the water is delivered to the population. For some of the water quality parameters there is very little information available, which makes it difficult to draw conclusions about bushfire impacts. The monitoring campaigns are very expensive, and better options are the modeling tools.
The model used in this research is eWater, a conceptual, semi-distributed model, which applies the flow accumulation principles. eWater Source - Australia{\textquoteright}s National Hydrological Modelling Platform (NHMP) {\textendash} is developed by eWater CRC, Australia. It is designed to simulate all aspects of water resource systems to support integrated planning, operations and governance from urban, catchment to river basin scales including human and ecological influences.

The catchment analyzed can be divided into sub-catchments and functional units. The model integrates rainfall runoff, constituent generation and filter models, which are parameterized. The user must find the best set of parameters that is suitable for that catchment. After calibration and validation, the model can be used in the same catchment for any period of time, and it will be able to predict the pollution levels in the catchment, with a good accuracy. Also, a user can follow the same steps, to calibrate the model for any other catchment. This method is time consuming, but it doesn{\textquoteright}t require many input data.The fires and the rain are classified in 3 classes each. Then, the landuse, the burnt areas and the areas with rain are combined and parameterized separately.

The outputs from the developed model are good correlated with the measured data, and show higher concentrations of suspended sediment and nutrients after bushfire followed by rain. To improve the model performance, the measured water quality data must be daily data with a better accuracy.

}, keywords = {bushfires, modeling, water pollution, water quality}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162351}, author = {graducan} } @article {bnh-5064, title = {Should we leave now? Behavioral factors in evacuation under wildfire threat}, journal = {Fire Technology}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {30}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Wildfires pose a serious threat to life in many countries. For police, fire and emergency services authorities in most jurisdictions in North America and Australia evacuation is now the option that is preferred overwhelmingly. Wildfire evacuation modeling can assist authorities in planning evacuation responses to future threats. Understanding residents{\textquoteright} behavior under wildfire threat may assist in wildfire evacuation modeling. This paper reviews North American and Australian research into wildfire evacuation behavior published between January 2005 and June 2017. Wildfire evacuation policies differ across the two regions: in North America mandatory evacuations are favored, in Australia most are advisory. Research from both regions indicates that following a wildfire evacuation warning some threatened residents will wish to remain on their property in order to protect it, many will delay evacuating, and some residents who are not on their property when an evacuation warning is issued may seek to return. Mandatory evacuation is likely to result in greater compliance, enforcement policies are also likely to be influential. Self-delayed evacuation is likely if warnings are not sufficiently informative: residents are likely to engage in information search rather than initiating evacuation actions. The wildfire warning and threat histories of a location may influence residents{\textquoteright} decisions and actions. The complexities of behavioral factors influencing residents{\textquoteright} actions following an evacuation warning pose challenges for wildfire evacuation modeling. Suggestions are offered for ways in which authorities might reduce the numbers of residents who delay evacuating following a wildfire warning.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, delay, Evacuation, human behavior, modeling, Wildfire}, doi = {10.1007/s10694-018-0753-8 }, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10694-018-0753-8}, author = {Jim McLennan and Barbara Ryan and Christopher Bearman and Keith Toh} }