@article {bnh-7900, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling {\textendash} final project report}, number = {650}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project aims to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

Project deliverables include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events as publications; installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI); and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past four years has delivered across several activities:

The project has demonstrably achieved the objective of building and sharing national capability in fire research and has provided fire and meteorology expertise during high impact events in support of end-users inside their operational centers.\  That outcome is not a specific project deliverable and is to some degree intangible, so not as easily measured as outcomes such as publications.\  However, it successfully realises the CRC objective of building collaborations and trusted partnerships and strengthening national capability. The operational support capability is recognised and valued across fire and land management agencies and in the Bureau.

To complete the project we will finalise publication of the draft papers to ensure that our key findings are documented in the scientific literature; this will expand the international body of knowledge from coupled modelling studies.\ 

We are pleased to bring the project to completion and are gratified that along the way we have shared a valuable legacy of knowledge on fire and atmosphere interactions.\  We have also delivered an important capability in ACCESS-Fire that can provide ongoing benefit to the field of meteorology and fire prediction and to the Australian community into the future.

In the coming months we will continue our conversations with partners and end-users to establish plans for future use and development of ACCESS-Fire as the BNHCRC transitions to the new Disaster Resilience Research Institute.\ \  ACCESS-Fire is an important research tool and has the potential to be a critical operational tool. It will assist in informing fire management decisions as we face increasingly hazardous scenarios in a changing climate.

}, keywords = {coupled, fire-atmosphere, modelling}, issn = {650}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye and Jesse Greenslade} } @article {bnh-7509, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling: ACCESS-Fire {\textendash} annual report 2019-2020}, number = {630}, year = {2020}, month = {11/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This project aims to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire.

Project deliverables include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events; installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI) and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past four years has been on several aspects:

  1. ACCESS-Fire has been installed on NCI and substantial investment has been made in testing and developing the model
  2. A meteorological case study of the Waroona fire has been published, which generated outreach activities across numerous agencies and jurisdictions.
  3. ACCESS-Fire has been run on two fires: the Waroona fire in WA and the Sir Ivan fire in NSW. A draft of the results of the Waroona simulations has been prepared and analysis and manuscript outline of the Sir Ivan simulations is well underway.
  4. Operational support was requested by fire agencies and the Bureau during high-impact events during the 2019-20 fire season. Support was provided in CFS and SES in SA, RFS in NSW and QFES in QLD during the protracted fire campaigns.
  5. A draft of the paper {\textquoteleft}Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire modelling{\textquoteright} has been prepared.

The project has continued to participate strongly in outreach activities, including media engagement through extended radio interviews and collaboration on print and online news articles.\  Conference presentations, high level training presentations and panel participation on topics including fire science, High Performance Computing, STEM careers and Women in Leadership have been attended.

The project has demonstrably achieved the objective of building and sharing national capability in fire research and has repeatedly applied that knowledge in critical focus during high impact events in support of end-users inside their operational centers.\  That outcome is not a specific project deliverable and is to some degree intangible, so not as easily measured as outcomes such as publications. \ However, it demonstrates successful realization of the CRC objective of building collaborations and trusted partnerships and strengthening national capability. The capability is recognized and valued across fire and land management agencies and in the Bureau; value that is evidenced by the repeated requests to provide high-level fire and meteorological interpretation inside operations.\ 

We therefore thank BNHCRC for their understanding in allowing flexible deadlines and repeatedly negotiating project timelines and deliverables, as this flexibility to shifting priorities has enabled the project team to provide operational support when it was needed.

Our focus for the remainder of the project is to complete advanced drafts of the papers to ensure that our key findings are documented in the scientific literature and expand the body of knowledge from coupled modelling studies. \ We will also share the results with a range of audiences through three online presentations and recordings during which we intend to develop presenting experience in more junior members of the project team.

These objectives may be challenging, due to the need to work from home during the Coronavirus pandemic and the need to be flexible with plans.

We are confident that we will bring the project to completion and are gratified that along the way we have shared a valuable legacy of knowledge, analysis techniques and software that can benefit the field of meteorology and fire prediction and the Australian community into the future.

}, keywords = {ACCESS-Fire, coupled, fire-atmosphere, modelling}, issn = {630}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye and Jesse Greenslade} } @conference {bnh-6410, title = {ACCESS-Fire: coupled fire-atmosphere modelling}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Coupled models are a class of fire prediction models that integrate a fire component with an atmospheric component, to examine how the energy released by a fire modifies the surrounding atmosphere. Coupled models can resolve complex interactions between the fire, topography and atmosphere, which subsequently manifest on fire behaviour. Results from simulations promote understanding of the driving processes in dynamic fire events. This can inform development of predictive tools that may be used to anticipate extreme fire behaviour and mitigate against the impacts of significant fires.

Globally, several coupled models have been developed; mostly by meteorological institutions for application in a research capacity. They can be broadly separated as taking either physical or empirical modelling approaches. We are running ACCESS-Fire; an empirical coupled model. It links the research version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to a set of empirically derived fire spread equations. In this presentation we will describe the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS Fire and report on progress on simulations of recent significant fire events.

In Australia and overseas, the imperative for accurate, flexible and timely predictions for prescribed (fuel reduction) burns and bushfires will only increase. Incorporating complex, dynamical meteorological fields is a critical component in building fire prediction systems that can resolve some of the most destructive elements of fire behaviour. Although coupled fire-atmosphere models are currently limited in producing timely operational output due to computational requirements, these restrictions will diminish as technology capabilities continue to increase.

}, keywords = {coupled models, Fire behaviour, fire-atmosphere, Forecasting, modelling}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} } @article {bnh-5775, title = {Coupled fire atmosphere modelling annual report 2018-2019}, number = {501}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The project goal is to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes through running a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation model. Planned project outcomes include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events, installation and testing of the ACCESS-Fire coupled model on the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI) and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.

The project started in March 2016, and progress over the past three years has been on several fronts; 1) publication of a case study of the Waroona fire and related outreach activities 2) implementing, developing and testing the coupled fire-atmosphere model ACCESS-Fire 3) operational support during high-impact events and 4) draft of the paper {\textquoteright} Lessons learned from coupled fire-atmosphere research and implications for operational fire modelling{\textquoteright}.

}, keywords = {bushfire prediction, coupled-fire, fire behavour. fire impacts, modelling}, issn = {501}, author = {Mika Peace and Jeffrey Kepert and Harvey Ye} }