@article {bnh-8306, title = {Consistent and conflicting information in floods and bushfires impact risk information seeking, risk perceptions, and protective action intentions}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2022}, month = {01/2022}, abstract = {

A core challenge for emergency services agencies is encouraging people to take protective action in a noisy, information-rich environment. This challenge is heightened when the environment is filled with conflicting information. While investigations of conflicting information are prevalent in temporally distant health contexts such as smoking cessation, where the effects of the protective action (i.e., quitting) take years to be realised, studies have yet to examine the impact of conflicting information when the potential outcome of the protective action (e.g., saving your life) has greater temporal immediacy. In this study we compare how social cues (media, peers, commercial weather forecaster) and environmental cues (weather conditions) that are consistent/conflict with an emergency warning message, impact community risk information processing, risk perceptions, and protective action intentions. The research finds risk perception is higher and intention to undertake protective action and information sharing is more likely when there is consistency between the emergency warning message and the socio-environmental cues, whereas heuristic information processing, self-efficacy, and information seeking are more likely to occur in the presence of conflicting cues. The research moves beyond high-level discourse about conflicting information {\textquoteleft}causing confusion{\textquoteright} in the community to a more nuanced, empirical understanding of the complexities of conflicting information across multiple stages of the decision-making process, in a context with greater temporal immediacy for action. Practical suggestions are made for agencies managing conflicting information when the conflict comes from socio-environmental cues. Future research is warranted for replication and to test mitigation strategies for conflicting information.

}, keywords = {decision-making, emergency service, information, protective action}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102774}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420921007354}, author = {Paula Dootson and Erica Kuligowski and Dominique A Greer and Sophie A Miller and Vivienne Tippett} } @article {bnh-6773, title = {Staying on task: a tool to help state and regional-level emergency management teams}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, pages = {38-44}, abstract = {

The demands on teams coordinating emergency management at state and regional levels can be considerable. These teams may be supporting multiple incidents and are prioritising resources, liaising with other organisations and managing public interests. Also, during large-scale emergencies, teams will be working under conditions of stress and fatigue, which are known to impair cognitive processes such as memory and decision-making. This paper describes a checklist-based cognitive aid that can be used by teams to help retain their focus on tasks that need to be completed. This checklist is based on a hierarchical task analysis that was developed with emergency management agencies using observations, subject matter expert advice and prototype piloting. The checklist is a simple, straightforward set of prompts that help managers keep track of operational tasks and, thus, helps to reduce mental workload and improve cognition. The checklist can be used as a prompt to help emergency managers address the tasks they have oversight for, as a training and development resource, and as a diagnostic and monitoring tool to assess how well a control centre is operating. This can be assessed in real time and through the after-action review process. The checklist is a flexible tool that can help people better manage emergency response activities.

}, keywords = {decision-making, Emergency management, teams}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-january-2020-staying-on-task-a-tool-to-help-state-and-regional-level-emergency-management-teams/}, author = {Peter Hayes and Christopher Bearman and Mark Thomason and Peter A. Bremner} } @article {bnh-6036, title = {Managing cognitive biases during disaster response: the development of an aide memoire}, journal = {Cognition, Technology \& Work}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, pages = {1-13}, abstract = {

Disasters are highly complex with often extreme consequences and are often exacerbated by decision errors. Human behaviour in this domain offers a fertile ground for studying decision-making and identifying opportunities for improvement. This research sought to improve the quality of decision-making by developing an aide memoire for managing cognitive biases in emergency management. Based on the appropriate literature, 58 of Australia{\textquoteright}s leading marine spill disaster response experts identified and ranked the most important cognitive biases in a group setting. The results were translated into language relevant to emergency management practitioners and reframed into a series of questions. The identification of nine cognitive biases in the aide memoire can first be used to assess the available information, intelligence and decisions, and then used to determine the meaning of the information, intelligence and decisions. The paper discusses the applicability of the aide memoire to decision errors identified in recent man-made and natural disasters. Finally, the article addresses a criticism that research findings are often not useful to industry by suggesting how the aide memoire can be used in practice.

}, keywords = {Cognitive bias, Decision aid, decision-making, disasters, Emergency management}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10111-019-00564-5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10111-019-00564-5$\#$citeas}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin and Owen, Christine and Christopher Bearman} } @article {bnh-4689, title = {Community values survey}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Values are the basis of decision-making. They direct the beliefs that determine what is most important and so underpin desirable goals that motivate action (Schwartz, 2012, p4).
Understanding similar and differing values is increasingly being used by organisations as a way to understand gaps between their organization, clients and communities they serve. For emergency management services to better represent the diversity of the communities they service, they need to not just understand the demographics of those communities, but also the values across their communities, particularly in relation to diversity.
This study undertook a community survey across 539 community members to ascertain values and attitudes in relation to Emergency Management Organisations (EMO). The survey used Schwartz{\textquoteright}s measurement of values, comprised of ten different values, based around four key areas: openness to change, self-transcendence, conservation and self-enhancement, as a basis. Questions from the Schwartz values study were amalgamated with the World Values Survey to develop the survey. The demographic varied across age, gender and cultural spectrums.
The data from this survey provide a baseline for understanding existing community values relating to diversity and inclusion. These results will be compared to those held by EMOs and their staff in later work. This has potential to help discern where there may be significant similarities and differences between EMS organisations and the community that influence current and future strength and capability of diversity and inclusion in the emergency management sector.

}, keywords = {decision-making, diversity, Emergency management, inclusion, multi-hazard., Preparedness, response}, issn = {365}, author = {Craig Cormick} } @article {bnh-4677, title = {Evidence to support incident management team capability}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {5}, chapter = {44}, abstract = {

In 2015, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) commissioned a review of the evidence base to establish the rationale for capabilities central to effective incident management. The review focused on the capabilities required for senior AIIMS Level 3\ Incident Management Team roles. Results were used to inform standards for the AFAC Emergency Management Professionalisation Scheme. The review considered the human factors and emergency management literature as well as research conducted through the Bushfire CRC. Analysis and synthesis of the evidence identified three broad capabilities, each with three sub-capabilities important in incident management. The three categories were to model leadership and teamwork, to think and plan strategically and demonstrate self-awareness. This article outlines the evidence base and the capabilities developed through this review and contributes to the evidence base for incident management capability. Guidance on what will be needed in continuing professional development program is provided.

}, keywords = {communication, decision-making, Emergency management, EMPS, incident management, multi-hazard.}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jul-2018-evidence-to-support-incident-management-team-capability/}, author = {Owen, Christine and Peter Hayes and Brooks, B and Cameron Scott and Geoff Conway} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5391, title = {Improving adaptation planning for future sea level rise and coastal flooding}, year = {2018}, school = {University of Tasmania}, address = {Hobart}, abstract = {

Sea level rise has the potential to exacerbate coastal flooding around the world, causing more frequent extreme sea levels, nuisance flooding and permanent inundation. Projecting diverse physical, environmental and socio-economic impacts to coastal communities across multi-decadal timeframes is vital for informed adaptation planning. However, this is increasingly uncertain and challenged by conflicting stakeholder priorities.

This thesis develops an interdisciplinary approach to advance the planning of long-term adaptation pathways in the context of coastal flood risk management. Utilising three case studies in south-east Australia, it combines the strengths of robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) {\textendash} both prominent tools to support decision-making under conditions of uncertainty {\textendash} together with solicited values-based information to make three novel advances towards flexible adaptation pathways planning.

First, this thesis combines the strengths of RDM and DAPP for planning adaptation pathways by using scenario discovery to provide a multi-dimensional description of adaptation tipping points. The scenario discovery process uses an existing cluster finding algorithm to identify future conditions where adaptation policies no longer keep flood risk at tolerable levels. Combining RDM and DAPP is a novel approach in coastal flood risk management and scenario discovery provides greater visibility on the physical factors driving adaptation tipping points. Second, values-based information is integrated into the adaptation planning process in an attempt to consider subjective social and cultural impacts from coastal flooding. In this regard, the novel combination and explanatory value of lived and landscape values is investigated. Consideration of these more intangible effects are often omitted in coastal adaptation planning but can contribute to more informed adaptation decisions. Third, the combined RDM and DAPP method developed uses both geographic information system (GIS) software and open source programming tools to analyse flood impacts. This improves the usability and relevance of a combined RDM and DAPP approach, enabling the efficient redeployment and customisation of the method to suit different location-specific needs. Such an approach also provides a lower cost entry point for local government agencies to begin planning coastal adaptation pathways.

Each of these advances combine to provide a framework that improves the way coastal adaptation pathways are planned and developed. The findings elucidated from the case studies show how a combined RDM and DAPP approach can account for spatial and temporal interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability flood risk factors, which improves the way robustness is measured for adaptation policy options. Values-based approaches can shape the selection of adaptation objectives, improve the design of options, support the evaluations of adaptation pathways and inform monitoring systems. The resultant adaptation pathways framework can support local government in planning sustainable strategies to manage long-term flood impacts. This has global applications for coastal flood risk management that will become increasingly important throughout the coming century.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Climate change, coastal flooding, decision-making, Planning, risk, sea level rise, uncertainty}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/29624/}, author = {Timothy Ramm} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5457, title = {Factors influencing householder self-evacuation in two Australian bushfires}, year = {2017}, month = {08/2017}, school = {RMIT}, type = {Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The thesis investigated householder self-evacuation decision-making during bushfires in the Perth and Adelaide Hills in 2014 and 2015. It explored the factors that influenced householders{\textquoteright} decisions to evacuate, identified factors that predict self-evacuation and established the characteristics of self-evacuators. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a conceptual framework for the research. Its theoretical and analytical usefulness in an Australian context, was assessed. A mixed methods research strategy was used involving quantitative telephone surveys of 457 bushfire-affected participants and face-to-face interviews of 109 participants in 59 households.\ 

The study concluded that environmental and social cues and warnings and householders{\textquoteright} perceptions of the threat, of hazard adjustments and of other stakeholders, influenced self-evacuation decision-making. Protective action perceptions, particularly the effectiveness of evacuating or not evacuating in protecting personal safety or property, were most important in predicting self-evacuation. Receipt of official warnings and the perception of likely impact of the bushfire on property were also important predictors. Undertaking long-run hazard adjustments, although not predictive of self-evacuation, was pivotal in shaping perceptions of the effectiveness of evacuating and remaining in protecting personal safety and property and indirectly influenced evacuation decisions. Seven archetypes that characterised householders{\textquoteright} self-evacuation attitudes and behaviour were identified. These included Threat, and Responsibility Deniers, Dependent, and Considered Evacuators, Community Guided and Experienced Independents all who took different decisional {\textquoteleft}rules of thumb{\textquoteright} and routes toward evacuating or remaining . The PADM needs to be split into two separate models to incorporate the influence of long-run hazard adjustments on protective action decision-making in an Australian bushfire.

The findings suggest that future research on those who wait and see during a bushfire should take account of their decisional rules of thumb and that design and targeting of Australian bushfire safety policy should better account for self-evacuator characteristics.\ 

}, keywords = {{\textquoteright}Dependent Evacuator{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteright}Wait and See{\textquoteright}, Archetypes, Bushfire, decision-making, Long-run hazard adjustment, PADM, Prediction Policy, Self-evacuation, Wildfire}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162093}, author = {Ken Strahan} }