@article {bnh-6839, title = {A case study of disaster decision-making in the presence of anomalies and absence of recognition}, journal = {Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

This paper provides an insight into the complexities of decision-making during an unprecedented disaster. We used the critical decision method to explore a series of decision points that were made for a low probability yet high consequence decision that was made by the commander of the Australian Urban Search and Rescue team deployed to Fukushima in 2011. The findings identified that in a situation with no similarities to previous experiences, the commander used a process of anomaly detection to trigger a situational assessment, following this with mental simulation and consultation of his actions. In this unparalleled case study, hazard-specific expertise also supported the decision-making process. The paper offers practitioners and academia an example of high consequence decision-making in a unique situation as well as the opportunity to reflect on the models of decision-making previously identified as useful in these operational environments.

}, keywords = {crisis management, Decision making, Disaster management, hazards}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12290}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1468-5973.12290}, author = {Steve Curnin and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine} } @article {bnh-7440, title = {Stretch-Thinking Loops: A New Technique for Scenario Planning}, journal = {Risk, Hazards \& Crisis in Public Policy}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, abstract = {

In crisis management, scenario planning is a necessity in our volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. Strategic planners need to be able to imagine future environments even in the most uncertain conditions. The scale of potential scenarios and associated management suggests that those involved will require innovative planning techniques. To support innovation in strategic planning, we have combined the research on creativity, divergent thinking, and creative constraints to design a method called {\textquotedblleft}Stretch-Thinking Loops.{\textquotedblright} This technique uses iterative thinking approaches that identify broad scenarios, the likely consequences, and the potential constraints, and then uses this information to identify new opportunities and innovations to support scenario planning. We report on the development of this technique in the context of crisis management and its application in a collaborative project with an Australian State Government that explored a series of post-COVID-19 recovery scenarios for a 12-month time horizon. The proposed Stretch-Thinking Loops are not just limited to crisis management but offer all organizations a structured method to enhance their capability to engage in divergent-thinking for future scenario planning.

}, keywords = {crisis management, scenario planning, stretch-thinking}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12205}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rhc3.12205}, author = {Brooks, B and Steve Curnin} }