@article {bnh-6743, title = {Cascading extreme weather beyond our experience: are we ready?}, number = {547}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards\ Management Conference was a little\ different from what you might expect from\ a conference. It started with questions and worked through to a strategic view on\ whether we have the best knowledge to deal\ with the extreme hazards of our future that\ are of a nature and scale beyond our current\ experience.

As natural hazards continue to increase in frequency\ and severity, it is more important than ever to provide\ decision-makers with the evidence, information and\ tools to make the necessary critical decisions. As our\ demographics change, cities expand further into the\ bush and dependence on technology increases, our\ exposure to risk intensifies. The economic, social and\ environmental costs are forecasted to rise in a way that\ is unprecedented and unsustainable. These challenges\ are complex, and we should be wary of quick fix solutions.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC undertakes\ research with a vision that firmly imagines what we can\ do now to improve outcomes in the future. Our research\ explores what is possible and then develops evidence,\ knowledge and tools to help improve outcomes.

But the CRC is not a decision maker. The decision\ makers are governments, response agencies,\ organisations and communities. We all make choices\ and compromises: we make decisions on where to live,\ what to invest in and how prepared to be for the hazards\ we are familiar with and the ones we are yet to face {\textendash} the\ cascading, extreme hazards of our future.

This conference was an opportunity for us to explore the decisions available to us that can be made to reduce\ the impacts of these inevitable natural hazards. We\ drew together a diverse cross-section of industries\ that deal with natural hazards and provided them with\ opportunities to stretch their thinking beyond their\ current experiences. We invited them to contribute to\ the development of pathways\ to take research, knowledge\ and lessons into policy and\ practice.

To navigate the challenges of\ the changing risk profile in\ our region, we must act upon\ the knowledge generated\ through research and through\ the relationships cultivated at\ this conference. We encourage\ decision-makers at all levels\ to make courageous and creative choices to improve\ Australia{\textquoteright}s resilience.

The CRC draws together all of Australia and New\ Zealand{\textquoteright}s fire and emergency service authorities with\ the leading experts across a range of scientific fields\ to explore the causes, consequences and mitigation of\ natural disasters and, ultimately, contribute to a more\ disaster resilient Australia.

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards Management\ Conference was integral to this process and this report\ provides a summary of the discussions to extend our\ collective strategic view into the coming years.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Natural hazards, Planning, scenario}, issn = {547}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-6744, title = {East Coast Low extreme weather scenario}, number = {548}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fictional scenario developed for use at\ the 12th Australasian Natural Hazards\ Management Conference, developed in\ partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology,\ Geoscience Australia and Risk Frontiers. This\ scenario should be read in conjunction with\ the report on the 12th Australasian Natural\ Hazards Management Conference, Cascading\ extreme weather beyond our experience: are\ we ready?, published by the Bushfire and\ Natural Hazards CRC.

This scenario has been developed for the 12th\ Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference.\ It is based on climate, environment and weather events\ that are plausible. The combination of events, locations,\ areas of impact and human behavior are not based on\ any real event.

As you see what unfolds during the scenario, we ask you\ to focus on the nature and scale of the events that are\ unfolding, and the connections between them. And to\ begin thinking {\textquoteleft}what could we do to reduce, minimise or\ avoid the short and long-term impacts?{\textquoteright}

The hypothetical event is based in New South Wales,\ but can, and should, be considered in the context of any\ equivalent location across Australia or New Zealand.\ 

The impacts capture a range of likely outcomes to\ illustrate the extent of the effects of the weather\ scenario, but do not attempt to catalogue all of the\ impacts and their extent.

}, keywords = {east coast low, extreme weather, Planning, scenario}, issn = {548}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-7739, title = {Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia - final project report}, number = {636}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia{\textquoteright} project is part of CDU{\textquoteright}s northern hub second round suite of projects, commencing in July 2017. The hub involves collaborations between the Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research (DCBR) at Charles Darwin University (CDU), the North Australia Indigenous Land \& Sea Management Alliance Ltd (NAILSMA), the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network (ARPNet) also based at CDU, and regional stakeholders including north Australian Fire and Emergency Management agencies, conservation agencies and remote Indigenous communities. In this report, we provide summaries of the work undertaken over the project period in the two main components of the Northern hub{\textquoteright}s scenario planning project.

Firstly, we have been developing a framework for the Fire \& Emergency Services agencies to engage with remote Indigenous communities to potentially improve Emergency Services delivery. The agencies recognise the need to improve the services provided remotely, but also recognise that\  some jurisdictions (particularly the NT) are\  not adequately resourced to achieve this,. The classic model of volunteering does not suit remote significantly disadvantaged Indigenous community members in remote communities. However, the expanding Indigenous Ranger program is a potential means to more appropriately engage with local Indigenous people to build local emergency management (EM) capacity, preparedness, resilience and disaster response.

This research has developed\  a suite of case studies. In each case,\  interviews/workshops have been conducted with members of the, now, wide-spread Indigenous Ranger Groups (IRGs) to ascertain the aspirations, willingness and capacity of the Indigenous Rangers to engage in EM activities. In this report, we provide summaries of the activities undertaken and information gathered to date at Hermannsberg and Yuendumu in Central Australia, Broome, Beagle Bay and Bidyadanga in the Kimberley, Galiwinku on Elcho Island off Arnhem Land, in Bulukhuduru, Ramingining and Ngukkurr in Arnhem Land, and Borroloola on the Gulf of Carpentaria. Main identified issues across the selected remote communities include little engagement of locals, if any, in managing emergency situations around the community, inappropriate placement of EM plans in police stations, lack of resoruces and services in remote communities, broader recognition of IRGs capacity to deliver EM services, and willingness of IRGs to participate in EM services.

Secondly, this research continues the service delivery program of land management, monitoring and evaluation tools to assist fire managers in remote north Australia. To develop {\textquotedblleft}Improved Fire Management Regimes{\textquotedblright}, we provide information with respect to the spatial distribution, and effects of fires on tropical savanna and rangeland habitats through the Savanna Monitoring \& Evaluation Reporting Framework (SMERF). In particular, we include the development of a fire severity map product, not only to inform land management, but to improve Savanna Burning greenhouse gas emissions calculations.

Finally, this report addresses ongoing priorities identified by partner agencies and community stakeholders requiring further action-based research and implementation, especially addressing:

}, keywords = {northern Australia, Planning, remote community, risk management, scenario}, issn = {636}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} }