@article {BF-4286,
	title = {Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling},
	volume = {266},
	year = {2013},
	month = {09/2013},
	pages = {172-186},
	chapter = {172},
	abstract = {An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide future land management and planning. However, quantification of landscape change from vegetation development and disturbance effects is difficult because of the large space and long time scales involved. Comparative simulation modeling experiments, using a suite of models to simulate a set of scenarios, can provide a platform for investigating landscape change over more ecologically appropriate time and space scales that control vegetation and disturbance. We implemented a multifactorial simulation experiment using five landscape fire succession models to explore the role of fire and vegetation development under various climates on a neutral landscape. The simulation experiment had four factors with two or three treatments each: (1) fire (fire and no fire), (2) succession (dynamic and static succession), (3) climate (historical, warm-wet, warm-dry), and (4) weather (constant, variable). We found that, under historical climates, succession changed more area annually than fire by factors of 1.2 to 34, but one model simulated more landscape change from fire (factor of 0.1). However, we also found that fire becomes more important in warmer future climates with factors decreasing to below zero for most models. We also found that there were few differences in simulation results between weather scenarios with low or high variability. Results from this study show that there will be a shift from vegetation processes that control today{\textquoteright}s landscape dynamics to fire processes under future warmer and drier climates, and this shift means that detailed representations of both succession and fire should be incorporated into models to realistically simulate interactions between disturbance and vegetation.},
	keywords = {Landscape dynamics, Landscape ecology, Model comparison, Simulation modeling, Succession, wildland fire},
	doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.06.020},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438001300313X},
	author = {Robert E. Keane and Geoffrey J. Cary and Flannigan, Mike D. and Parsons, Russell A. and Davies, Ian D. and Karen J. King and Li, Chao and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm}
}
@article {BF-3624,
	title = {Future scenarios for Australian bushfires: Report on a Bushfire CRC workshop},
	journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management},
	volume = {27},
	year = {2012},
	month = {July 2012},
	pages = {34-40},
	chapter = {34},
	abstract = {A Bushfire CRC workshop on future bushfire scenarios was conducted at the Australian National University, Canberra, in November 2011. The workshop explored effects of global change on fire regimes, implications for socio-economic and environmental assets, potential mitigation strategies, and law and planning responses. These findings will be used to construct bushfire projections, and to assess implications for assets, including terrestrial carbon stocks and built assets in peri-urban environments, and their management. These analyses will provide critical input into economic evaluation of bushfires in Australian society, both currently and in the future.
},
	url = {http://www.em.gov.au/Publications/Australianjournalofemergencymanagement/Currentissue/Pages/AJEMvolume27\%20no\%203/FuturescenariosforAustralianbushfiresReportonaBushfireCRCworkshop.aspx},
	author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Collett, Eddy and Gill, A. Malcolm and Helena Clayton and Dovers, Steve}
}
@inbook {BF-3789,
	title = {Global change and fire regimes in Australia},
	booktitle = {Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World},
	year = {2012},
	publisher = {CSIRO Publishing},
	organization = {CSIRO Publishing},
	chapter = {7},
	abstract = {In Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World, leading researchers in fire ecology and management discuss how fire regimes have shaped and will continue to shape the distribution and abundance of Australia{\textquoteright}s highly diverse plants and animals. Central to this is the exploration of the concept of the fire regime {\textendash} the cumulative pattern of fires and their individual characteristics (fire type, frequency, intensity, season) and how variation in regime components affects landscapes and their constituent biota.
Contributions by 44 authors explore a wide range of topics including classical themes such as pre-history and evolution, fire behaviour, fire regimes in key biomes, plant and animal life cycles, remote sensing and modelling of fire regimes, and emerging issues such as climate change and fire regimes, carbon dynamics and opportunities for managing fire regimes for multiple benefits.

In the face of significant global change, the conservation of our native species and ecosystems requires an understanding of the processes at play when fires and landscapes interact. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of this complex science, in the context of one of the world{\textquoteright}s most flammable continents.},
	issn = {9780643104822},
	url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/6836.htm},
	author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Williams, RJ}
}
@inbook {BF-4297,
	title = {Global change and fire regimes in Australia},
	booktitle = {Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {149-170},
	publisher = {CSIRO Publishing},
	organization = {CSIRO Publishing},
	chapter = {7},
	abstract = {In Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World, leading researchers in fire ecology and management discuss how fire regimes have shaped and will continue to shape the distribution and abundance of Australia{\textquoteright}s highly diverse plants and animals. Central to this is the exploration of the concept of the fire regime {\textendash} the cumulative pattern of fires and their individual characteristics (fire type, frequency, intensity, season) and how variation in regime components affects landscapes and their constituent biota.
Contributions by 44 authors explore a wide range of topics including classical themes such as pre-history and evolution, fire behaviour, fire regimes in key biomes, plant and animal life cycles, remote sensing and modelling of fire regimes, and emerging issues such as climate change and fire regimes, carbon dynamics and opportunities for managing fire regimes for multiple benefits.

In the face of significant global change, the conservation of our native species and ecosystems requires an understanding of the processes at play when fires and landscapes interact. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of this complex science, in the context of one of the world{\textquoteright}s most flammable continents.},
	isbn = {9780643104822},
	url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/6836.htm},
	author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Williams, RJ}
}
@article {BF-3786,
	title = {Implications of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 for grassland fire in south-east Australia: insights using the GRAZPLAN grassland simulation model},
	year = {2012},
	url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF11103.htm},
	author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Karen J. King and Gill, A. Malcolm and Moore, AD}
}
@article {BF-3787,
	title = {Modelling the potential for prescribed burning to mitigate carbon emissions from wildfires in fire-prone forests of Australia},
	year = {2012},
	url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF11023.htm},
	author = {Gill, A. Malcolm and Hutley, LB and Garry D. Cook and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Stefan Maier and Roxburgh, Stephen and Meyer, C.P. (Mick) and Damian J. Barrett and Keith, H and Ross Bradstock and Geoffrey J. Cary and Owen Price and Williams, RJ}
}
@article {BF-3788,
	title = {The World-Wide {\textquoteright}Wildfire{\textquoteright} Problem},
	year = {2012},
	url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/10-2213.1},
	author = {Gill, A. Malcolm and Geoffrey J. Cary}
}
@article {BF-2498,
	title = {Protecting Lives and Property in the Wildland{\textendash}Urban Interface: Communities in Montana and Southern California Adopt Australian Paradigm},
	journal = {Fire Technology},
	volume = {47},
	year = {2011},
	month = {4/2011},
	pages = {357 - 377},
	abstract = {Threats to people and property in the wildland{\textendash}urban interface have taken on global proportions. It is becoming increasingly rare to have a wildland fire incident that does not involve people and their homes. In addition to Australia and North America, people have died in interface fires in Europe, Africa, and Asia, including 212 people who died in the devastating forest fires in northeastern China in May 1987. The prevailing interface model is one that attempts to evacuate people away from fire areas to get them out of harm{\textquoteright}s way. This traditional approach in the U.S. has been preferred by law enforcement agencies and fire services. The problem with this model is that evacuation warnings are often late to non-existent, leading to the deaths of interface residents entrapped by fires on highways as they try to escape. For example, 16 people suffered lethal burns when the 2003 Cedar and Paradise Fires in California overran them as they were trying to evacuate. Two communities in the United States have adopted variations of the Australian model of Prepare, Go Early, or Stay and Defend (P/GE/SD). Officials in the Painted Rocks Fire District, Montana, and Rancho Santa Fe, California, were interviewed to determine how the Australian model was being implemented. Two of the authors have firsthand experience with these two case examples. P/GE/SD has been tested successfully at both locations. The Australian model, however, is under review following the Black Saturday fires of February 2009 in Victoria, Australia. The objective of this paper is to present specific ideas that can be used to reform and improve fire policy, planning, and performance in the Wildland{\textendash}Urban Interface in the United States. },
	doi = {10.1007/s10694-010-0171-z},
	author = {Mutch, Robert W. and Rogers, Michael J. and Scott L Stephens and Gill, A. Malcolm}
}
@article {BF-2252,
	title = {The effect of fire on birds of mulga woodlandin arid central Australia},
	journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
	volume = {19},
	year = {2010},
	month = {2010},
	pages = {949},
	doi = {10.1071/WF09028},
	author = {Adam J. Leavesley and Geoffrey J. Cary and Edwards, Glenn P. and Gill, A. Malcolm}
}
@article {BF-2397,
	title = {Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire weather},
	journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
	volume = {18},
	year = {2009},
	month = {2009},
	pages = {932},
	abstract = {The probability of large-fire (>=1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively affected the chance of large fire ignitions, with large fires more probable on the Central Coast than in the Blue Mountains. The preferred, additive combination of drought and ambient weather had a marked threshold effect on large-fire ignition and total area burned in both localities. This may be due to a landscape-scale increase in the connectivity of available fuel at high values of the index. Higher probability of large fires on the Central Coast may be due to more subdued terrain or higher population density and ignitions. Climate scenarios for 2050 yielded predictions of a 20{\textendash}84\% increase in potential large-fire ignitions days, using the preferred model.},
	doi = {10.1071/WF08133},
	author = {Ross Bradstock and Cohn, J. S. and Gill, A. Malcolm and Bedward, M. and Chris Lucas}
}
@article {BF-2419,
	title = {A simple index for assessing fire danger rating},
	journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
	volume = {24},
	year = {2009},
	month = {06/2009},
	pages = {764 - 774},
	abstract = {Fire danger rating systems are used to assess the potential for bushfire occurrence, fire spread and difficulty of fire suppression. Typically, fire danger rating systems combine meteorological information with estimates of the moisture content of the fuel to produce a fire danger index. Fire danger indices are used to declare fire bans and to schedule prescribed burns, among other applications. In this paper a simple fire danger index F that is intuitive and easy to calculate is introduced and compared to a number of fire danger indices pertaining to different fuel types that are used in an operational setting in Australia and the United States. The comparisons suggest that F provides a plausible measure of fire danger rating and that it may be a useful pedagogical tool in the context of fire danger and fire weather.},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.004},
	author = {Jason J. Sharples and Rick McRae and Weber, Rodney and Gill, A. Malcolm}
}
@article {BF-2392,
	title = {Influence of fire severity on the regeneration, recruitment and distribution of eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment, Australian Capital Territory},
	journal = {Austral Ecology},
	volume = {33},
	year = {2008},
	month = {02/2008},
	pages = {55 - 67},
	abstract = {Plant responses to fire are variable between and within species and are influenced by numerous factors including fire severity. This study investigated the effects of fire severity on the regeneration and recruitment of forest eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment, Australian Capital Territory (ACT). This study also examined the potential for the obligate seeder Eucalyptus delegatensis R.T. Baker (Myrtaceae) to expand into adjacent stands dominated by the facultative resprouter Eucalyptus fastigata H. Deane \& Maiden (Myrtaceae) by seed shed and seedling establishment beyond the pre-fire boundary. Sites were located in areas of either higher or lower fire severity, and transects were placed across the boundary of stands of E. delegatensis and E. fastigata. Species distributions, tree survival and seedling densities and heights were recorded, and the location of each boundary was determined as the region of maximum change in species composition along the transects. Eucalyptus delegatensis was the only eucalypt killed by higher severity fire. However, E. delegatensis seedling density was greater at higher severity sites than lower severity sites. Eucalyptus fastigata seedling density was low across all sites, with other eucalypts producing few, if any, seedlings. There was no evidence that E. delegatensis had increased its range into downslope stands dominated by E. fastigata. Patterns of vegetative recovery and seedling recruitment may be related to a number of factors, including differences in allocation patterns between seeders and sprouters, and the effects of overstory and understory competition. It is unclear what processes impede E. delegatensis seedling establishment beyond the stand boundary, but may involve an inability of E. delegatensis to shed seed sufficiently far downslope; unsuitable conditions for germination beyond the boundary; or, competition from a retained or resprouting overstory, despite the potential for increased dispersal distance soon after fire.},
	issn = {14429985},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2007.01790.x},
	author = {Vivian, L M and Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm}
}
@article {BF-2380,
	title = {Large fires, fire effects and the fire-regime concept},
	journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
	volume = {17},
	year = {2008},
	month = {2008},
	pages = {688},
	abstract = {{\textquoteleft}Large{\textquoteright} fires may be declared so because of their absolute or relative area. Huge fires {\textendash} with areas of more than 106 ha (104 km2) have occurred across a wide spectrum of Australian environments and are known on other continents. Such large fires are rare whereas fires with much smaller areas are common. Large fires are initiated by single or multiple ignitions and become large because of some combination of: rapid rates of spread; long {\textquoteleft}life{\textquoteright}; merging, and failure of initial suppression operations. Fires as ecological {\textquoteleft}events{\textquoteright} occur within a {\textquoteleft}regime{\textquoteright} {\textendash} an historical series. Both events and regimes have effects that may be discerned in terms of water, land, air or organisms. What have been regarded as the components of {\textquoteleft}regimes{\textquoteright} have differed between observers, the main issue being whether or not spatial variables need to be included; {\textquoteleft}area{\textquoteright} involvement is briefly addressed. The current trend toward fire-regime control through fuel treatment, including management (prescribed) burning, and fire suppression may be expected to continue. These trends, among others, can be expected to change fire regimes. What is regarded as {\textquoteleft}large{\textquoteright} among fires may change as the planet becomes increasingly human-dominated.},
	doi = {10.1071/WF07145},
	author = {Gill, A. Malcolm and Allan, Grant E.}
}
@article {BF-2377,
	title = {Spatial scale invariance of southern Australian forest fires mirrors the scaling behaviour of fire-driving weather events},
	journal = {Landscape Ecology},
	year = {2008},
	abstract = {Power law frequency-size distributions of forest fires have been observed in a range of environments. The scaling behaviour of fires, and more generally of landscape patterns related to recurring disturbance and recovery, have previously been explained in the frameworks of self-organized criticality (SOC) and highly optimized tolerance (HOT). In these frameworks the scaling behaviour of the fires is the global structure that either emerges spontaneously from locally operating processes (SOC) or is the product of a tuning process aimed at optimizing the trade-offs between system yield and tolerance to risks (HOT). Here, we argue that the dominant role of self-organized or optimised fuel patterns in constraining unplanned-fire sizes, implicit in the SOC and HOT frameworks, fails to recognise the strong exogenous controls of fire spread (i.e. by weather, terrain, and suppression) observed in many fire-prone landscapes. Using data from southern Australia we demonstrate that forest fire areas and the magnitudes of corresponding weather events have distributions with closely matching scaling exponents. We conclude that the spatial scale invariance of forest fires may also be a mapping of the meteorological forcing pattern. },
	doi = {10.1007/s10980-008-9260-5},
	author = {Matthias M. Boer and Sadler, Rohan J. and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Grierson, Pauline}
}
@article {BF-2370,
	title = {Bushfires {\textquoteright}down under{\textquoteright}: patterns and implications of contemporary Australian landscape burning},
	journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
	volume = {16},
	year = {2007},
	month = {2007},
	pages = {361},
	abstract = {Australia is among the most fire-prone of continents. While national fire management policy is focused on irregular and comparatively smaller fires in densely settled southern Australia, this comprehensive assessment of continental-scale fire patterning (1997{\textendash}2005) derived from ~1 km2 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery shows that fire activity occurs predominantly in the savanna landscapes of monsoonal northern Australia. Statistical models that relate the distribution of large fires to a variety of biophysical variables show that, at the continental scale, rainfall seasonality substantially explains fire patterning. Modelling results, together with data concerning seasonal lightning incidence, implicate the importance of anthropogenic ignition sources, especially in the northern wet{\textendash}dry tropics and arid Australia, for a substantial component of recurrent fire extent. Contemporary patterns differ markedly from those under Aboriginal occupancy, are causing significant impacts on biodiversity, and, under current patterns of human population distribution, land use, national policy and climate change scenarios, are likely to prevail, if not intensify, for decades to come. Implications of greenhouse gas emissions from savanna burning, especially seasonal emissions of CO2, are poorly understood and contribute to important underestimation of the significance of savanna emissions both in Australian and probably in international greenhouse gas inventories. A significant challenge for Australia is to address annual fire extent in fire-prone Australian savannas.},
	doi = {10.1071/WF07018},
	author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Yates, Cameron P. and Whitehead, Peter J. and Smith, Richard and Craig, Ron and Allan, Grant E. and Thackway, Richard and Frakes, Ian and Cridland, Shane and Meyer, C.P. (Mick) and Gill, A. Malcolm}
}
@article {BF-1150,
	title = {Living in a land of fire},
	year = {2006},
	url = {www.deh.gov.au/soe/2006/integrative/fire/index},
	author = {Whelan, Beth and Kanowski, K and Gill, A. Malcolm and Andersen, A. N.}
}
@article {BF-1074,
	title = {Flammability of Australian Forests.},
	journal = {Australian Forestry },
	volume = {2},
	number = {68},
	year = {2005},
	pages = {87-93},
	author = {Gill, A. Malcolm and Zylstra, Philip}
}
@article {BF-2318,
	title = {Landscape fires as social disasters: An overview of {\textquoteleft}the bushfire problem{\textquoteright}},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards},
	volume = {6},
	year = {2005},
	month = {2005},
	pages = {65 - 80},
	abstract = {The {\textquoteleft}landscape{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}bushfire{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}forest-fire{\textquoteright} problem is exemplified by the destruction of homes and human lives by landscape fires raging out of control. The {\textquoteleft}problem{\textquoteright} involves a series of landscapes (e.g. wildland and suburb), a series of systems (e.g. biophysical system and environmental-effects system), and a series of time phases (e.g. planning phase). It is a multi-stakeholder, multi-variable, multi-scale problem. Land uses, like {\textquoteleft}farmland{\textquoteright}, imply a set of specific assets and, therefore, particular perceptions of losses. In all land-use designations, at any one point, fire-proneness may be seen as a function of exposure to ignition sources (embers, burning brands or flame radiation and flame contact) and the ease of ignition. The landscape-fire problem has multiple partial {\textquoteleft}solutions{\textquoteright}, not just one overall solution, and these involve social governance, land management (public and private), suppression capacity and personal preparedness. The problem needs to be addressed at multiple temporal and spatial scales in an integrated fashion for the outcome to be of maximal benefit. There will always be a residual risk of severe fire occurrence. Minimisation of residual risk requires effective land management, recurrent funding and the perpetual vigilance of all parties.},
	doi = {10.1016/j.hazards.2005.10.005},
	author = {Gill, A. Malcolm}
}
