@article {bnh-3333, title = {Earthquake Scenario, Melbourne}, number = {242}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Despite its low seismic activity, Australia is more vulnerable to earthquakes than one would expect due to the concentration of population and the large stock of buildings which are structurally unable to withstand even moderate seismic shaking. This was demonstrated by the 1989 M5.6 Newcastle earthquake, one of the costliest natural disasters in Australia, despite its low magnitude. One question elicited by these circumstances is: what would happen if one of Australia{\textquoteright}s main cities were hit by an earthquake similar to the Newcastle earthquake? An example of a near miss is the 1954 M5.6 Adelaide earthquake, whose epicentre, far from developed areas at the time, would lie in densely developed areas were it to occur today. Providing realistic estimates for natural disaster scenarios is essential for emergency managers. A systematic approach to developing such scenarios can reveal blind spots and vulnerabilities in planning. Following the Adelaide Scenario delivered in 2015 we now look into a series of realistic disaster earthquake scenarios for the city of Melbourne.

}, issn = {242}, author = {Koschatzky, V and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Somerville, P} } @conference {bnh-1574, title = {Disruption of critical infrastructure during prolonged natural disasters Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Recent events such as the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand; 2009 Southeast Australia heatwave; 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallaj{\"o}kull volcano, Iceland; and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan, have highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure and essential services to long-term disruption from prolonged and complex natural disasters. Prolonged natural disasters can impact surrounding areas for weeks to months after the initial event, causing vast and on-going disruption to utility, transport and communication networks; infrastructure that is vitally important for everyday living, the economy and emergency response. The quake-stricken Canterbury region of New Zealand endured thousands of disruptive aftershocks that continued for over two years following the initial earthquake in 2010. These aftershocks contributed to delays in repair and rebuilding, and caused significant additional damage. Our growing reliance on infrastructure and technology, along with the strong interdependent nature of these critical services, can potentially turn one failure into a cascading disaster. Local impacts to critical infrastructure can also lead to the interruption of essential services in regions that were not directly impacted by the physical hazard event. It has never been more important to understand network vulnerabilities and to analyse the cost of long-term disruption, both social and economic. Whilst significant work has gone into understanding the direct impacts from natural hazards, less emphasis has been placed on understanding the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, including indirect and long-term disruption.

}, author = {Phillips, E and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Koschatzky, V and Somerville, P} } @conference {bnh-2077, title = {An earthquake loss scenario for Adelaide - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Koschatzky, V and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Somerville, P} }