@article {bnh-8360, title = {Meteorological drivers of the eastern Victorian Black Summer (2019{\textendash}2020) fires}, journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science}, volume = {72}, year = {2022}, month = {09/2022}, pages = {139-163}, chapter = {139}, abstract = {

The spring and summer of 2019{\textendash}2020 (Black Summer) saw the largest and most significant bushfire outbreak recorded in eastern Australia. In Victoria, the fires ran from mid-November through early autumn. In this paper, we use a high-spatial and temporal resolution 48-year fire weather re-analysis data set (VicClim5) to describe fire weather and vertical wind and stability profiles for five significant high Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) fire events and compare these with detailed fire reconstructions. A feature of several of these fires was very active overnight fire spread driven by topographically enhanced low-level jets and low fine fuel moisture content. The FFDI values on these nights were either the highest or near highest on record in the 48-year data set. We describe cases of lightning ignition, prefrontal fire spread and two cases of post-frontal fire spread {\textendash} one into Mallacoota on the early morning of 31 December 2019 and the other a northward overnight run down the Buffalo Valley on 4{\textendash}5 January 2020. On two of the days studied there were complex wind changes associated with the inland penetration of low-level south-easterly winds under the influence of locally generated pressure gradients. An elevated hot, dry mixed layer above these shallow layers also played an important role. On one occasion there is some evidence of possible mountain-wave modulation of surface wind flows. These events demonstrate a range of features of the fire weather and climate in eastern Victoria and the utility of VicClim5 in 3-dimensional climatological analyses.

}, keywords = {Black Summer bushfires, climatology of extremes, cold fronts, eastern Victorian fire weather, elevated mixed layers, low level jets, overnight fire spread, wind changes}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/ES22011}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/ES/ES22011}, author = {Graham A. Mills and Owen Salkin and Matthew Fearon and Sarah Harris and Timothy Brown and Hauss Reinbold} } @article {bnh-7417, title = {Climatology of wind changes and elevated fire danger over Victoria, Australia}, journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, abstract = {

Wind changes are a critical factor in fire management, particularly on days of elevated fire danger, and have been shown to be a factor in many firefighter entrapments in Australia and the USA. While there have been numerous studies of frontal wind changes over southeastern Australia since the 1950s, a spatial climatology of wind change strength and frequency over Victoria has hitherto been limited by the relatively low number of observation sites that have both high temporal resolution observations and sufficient length of record. This study used a recently developed high spatial (4-km grid) and temporal (1 hour) resolution, 46-year, homogeneous gridded fire weather climatology data set to generate a climatology of wind change strength by season at each gridpoint across Victoria. The metric used to define a wind change is the vector difference between the wind speed and direction over each 1-hour interval, with the highest value occuring on each day being selected for spatial analysis of strength and frequency. The highest values of wind change strength are found along the crest of the Great Dividing Range (the Great Divide), with a peak in spring. Elsewhere, the highest values occur in summer, with the areas south of the Great Divide, west of Melbourne and in central Gippsland showing higher values than the remainder of the state. The strength of wind changes generally decreases north of the Great Divide, although it is stronger in the northwest of the state in spring rather than in autumn. Lowest summertime (and other seasons) values occur in the northeast of the state and in far-east Gippsland. Exploring the frequencies of days when the highest daily Forest Fire Danger Index and the highest daily wind change strength jointly exceed defined thresholds shows that the northwest of the state has the highest springtime frequencies, whereas the highest autumn frequencies occur west of Melbourne and south of the Great Divide. The highest numbers of joint events in summer (when the greatest frequencies also occur) extend from central Victoria west to the South Australian border, with a secondary maximum in central Gippsland. These analyses offer important information for fire weather forecasters and for fire practitioners when preparing for a fire season or managing a fire campaign (for example, for allocating resources or understanding risks).

}, keywords = {Australia, bushfires, climatology, extreme weather, fire danger, fire management, firefighter entrapment, Victoria, wind changes}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19043}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/es/ES19043}, author = {Graham A. Mills and Sarah Harris and Brown, T and Alex Chen} } @article {bnh-2675, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere simulations of the Rocky River fire using WRF-SFIRE}, journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology}, volume = {55}, year = {2016}, month = {04/2016}, abstract = {

The coupled atmosphere-fire behaviour model WRF-SFIRE has been used to simulate a fire where extreme fire behaviour was observed. Tall flames and a dense convective smoke column were features of the fire as it burnt rapidly up the Rocky River gully on Kangaroo Island, South Australia. WRF-SFIRE simulations of the event show a number of interesting dynamical processes resulting from fire-atmosphere feedback including that: fire spread was sensitive to small changes in mean wind direction; fire perimeter was affected by wind convergence resulting from interactions between the fire, atmosphere and local topography; and the fire plume mixed high momentum air from above a strong subsidence inversion. At one-minute intervals, output from the simulations showed fire spread exhibiting fast and slow pulses. These pulses occurred coincident with the passage of mesoscale convective (Rayleigh-B{\`e}nard) cells in the planetary boundary layer. Simulations show that feedback between the fire and atmosphere may have contributed to the observed extreme fire behaviour. The findings raise questions as to the appropriate information to include in meteorological forecasts for fires as well as future use of coupled and uncoupled fire simulation models in both operational and research settings.

}, url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0157.1}, author = {Mika Peace and Trent Mattner and Graham A. Mills and Jeffrey Kepert and Lachlan W. McCaw} } @conference {bnh-2074, title = {Victoria fire weather climatology dataset - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Sarah Harris and Graham A. Mills and Brown, T and Domagoj Podmar and H. Reinbold and Matt Fearon} } @proceedings {BF-4353, title = {Fire-atmosphere coupled numerical simulations show a fire changes the local meteorology}, year = {2013}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/resources/research-report/fire-atmosphere-coupled-numerical-simulations-show-fire-changes-local-mete}, author = {Mika Peace and Trent Mattner and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-3546, title = {Atmospheric and fuel moisture characteristics associated with lightning-attributed fires}, journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology}, year = {2012}, month = {06/2012}, pages = {120604140651001}, abstract = {A systematic examination is presented of the relationship between lightning occurrence and fires attributed to lightning ignitions. Lightning occurrence data are matched to a database of fires attributed to lightning ignition over southeastern Australia, and compared with atmospheric and fuel characteristics at the time of the lightning occurrence. Factors influencing the chance of fire per lightning stroke are examined, including the influence of fuel moisture and weather parameters, as well as seasonal and diurnal variations. The fuel moisture parameters of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System are found to be useful in indicating whether or not a fire will occur, given the occurrence of lightning. The occurrence of {\textquoteleft}dry lightning{\textquoteright}, i.e. lightning which occurs without significant rainfall, is found to have a large influence on the chance of fire per lightning stroke. Through comparison of the results presented here with the results of studies from other parts of the world, a considerable degree of universality is shown to exist in the characteristics of lightning-fires and the atmospheric conditions associated with them, suggesting the potential for these results to be applied more widely than just in the area of the study.}, issn = {1558-8424}, doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0219.1}, author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-3195, title = {Characteristics of lightning-attributed wildland fires in south-east Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Wildland fires attributed to lightning ignitions in Victoria, Australia, are examined systematically through the use of lightning occurrence data. Lightning stroke data were obtained by a network of ground-based lightning detection sensors over a 9-year period. Characteristics of these fires are examined including the temporal variability in the average chance of fire occurrence per lightning stroke and the time period from lightning ignition of a fire until the fire grows large enough to be first observed, as well as distributions of fire duration and total area burnt. It is found that the time of day that lightning occurs does not have a significant influence on the chance of fire per lightning stroke, in contrast to the time of year, for which a significant annual variation occurs. Regional variability is examined by discussing the results for Victoria, Australia, in relation to results of studies from other parts of the world.}, author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-4283, title = {Meteorological dynamics in a fire environment; a case study of the Layman prescribed burn in Western Australia}, journal = {Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal}, volume = {62}, year = {2012}, month = {09/2012}, pages = {127-142}, chapter = {127}, abstract = {From time to time, bushfires exhibit fire behaviour that was never anticipated in the prevailing environmental conditions. The Layman fuel-reduction burn, in scenic southwest Western Australia, was one such fire. The burn was ignited in mid-October 2010 in benign weather conditions. Late morning on the day following ignition, fire activity escalated rapidly; a convection column developed with a deep vertical circulation that extended from the surface to a height of 4 km. The ensuing intense fire with tall flames caused extensive crown scorch and defoliation, and resulted in concerns about the safety of rural communities adjoining the planned burn. The observations and meteorological model data indicate that the intense fire activity was driven by a combination of meteorological processes not routinely assessed in fire environments. Low-level sea breeze convergence in the wind field, combined with potential instability in the presence of FireCAPE, entrainment of dry air from aloft desiccating already climatologically dry fuels and vertical circulation on a frontal change were all present. The dramatic development of the Layman burn shows how meteorological processes not currently embedded in fire science may produce an environment conducive to intense fire activity. The ways in which fire managers might incorporate innovative meteorological products identified in this paper in order to mitigate against such events in the future are discussed.}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2012/peace.pdf}, author = {Mika Peace and Lachlan W. McCaw and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1024, title = {Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather events over southeastern Australia}, journal = {Climate Research}, volume = {39}, year = {2009}, month = {9/01/2009}, pages = {159-172}, url = {http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v39/n2/p159-172/}, author = {Hasson, AEA and Graham A. Mills and Timbal, B and Kevin Walsh} } @article {BF-1030, title = {Australian fire weather as represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index.}, number = {CTR010}, year = {2009}, month = {6/30/2009}, pages = {84}, institution = {CAWCR }, type = {Technical Report}, url = {http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/4614205}, author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Finkele, K and Graham A. Mills and De Groot, W} } @article {BF-2403, title = {Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index}, journal = {Meteorological Applications}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {n/a - n/a}, abstract = {A number of different methodologies are developed for examining the sensitivities of an index. These methodologies are applied to examine the characteristics of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) using 8 years of gridded data throughout Australia. Percentile changes in input conditions show that the indices are similar to each other in that they are both most sensitive to wind speed, then secondly to relative humidity and thirdly to temperature. On a finer scale, a combination of the relationship between the indices and their partial derivatives shows that the FFDI is relatively less sensitive to wind speed and rainfall, and more sensitive to temperature and relative humidity, than the FWI. A method based on equilibrium values of the indices shows that the FFDI has a temperature threshold set by recent rainfall above which its sensitivity increases, resulting in some non-linearity in its relationship with the FWI. The sensitivity differences between the indices mean that the indices are complementary in that they each respond to a somewhat different set of conditions, as is shown by examining a number of recent fire events. The fire events also reveal that index values associated with dangerous fire behaviour can vary greatly between different regions. Methods to reduce the consequences of this variation are examined, including the use of index percentiles}, doi = {10.1002/met.170}, author = {Dowdy, Andrew J and Graham A. Mills and Finkele, K and De Groot, W} } @inbook {BF-1087, title = {Regional Real-Time Smoke Prediction Systems}, booktitle = {Developments in Environmental Science}, volume = {8}, year = {2009}, author = {Susan O{\textquoteright}Neil and Narasimhan, K. Larkin and Hoadley, Jeanne and Graham A. Mills and Vaughan, K. Joseph and Draxler, Roland and Rolph, Glenn and Ruminski, Mark and Susan Ferguson} } @article {BF-1035, title = {Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Fire Weather in Southeast Australia}, volume = {CTR007, }, year = {2008}, month = {5/14/2009}, pages = {86pp}, institution = {CAWCR }, type = {Technical Report}, url = {http://www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR_007.pdf}, author = {Hasson, AEA and Graham A. Mills and Timbal, B and Kevin Walsh} } @book {BF-2393, title = {Developments in Environmental SciencesWildland Fires and Air PollutionChapter 23 Managing Smoke from Wildfires and Prescribed Burning in Southern Australia}, volume = {8}, year = {2008}, pages = {535 - 550}, publisher = {Elsevier}, organization = {Elsevier}, abstract = {In Australia the responsibility for management of forests and other public lands rests largely with state governments, and multiple government agencies may be involved in fire management. Whether resulting from wildfire, fuel reduction, or silvicultural operations, biomass burning often stimulates community concerns about hazards from fine particulates and chemical compounds contained in smoke. Management practices and community perceptions of smoke from biomass burning differ from region to region according to social and environmental factors. Recognition of the need for a response to concerns has led to the development of a smoke management research program within the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, in conjunction with fire and land management agencies and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau). This program aims to assist land management planning by predicting where smoke from scheduled burns would be transported, thus providing the opportunity to avoid burning in situations where there is potential for adverse community impact. The primary tool provided is a dispersion model forecast using input from the Bureau{\textquoteright}s operational mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Decision tools are applied in a similar manner for prescribed burning and wildfires and have been used by agencies to provide community advice and to avoid smoke hazards during aircraft operations. We investigated strategies used by land management agencies to minimize community impact of smoke from prescribed burns, and studied the way in which the dispersion model forecasts are integrated into their decision support systems. Included are details of HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory{\textquoteright}s (HYSPLIT) configuration, several examples of its use in prescribed and wildfire events, and the research direction being pursued to improve both the quality of the dispersion forecasts and to enhance the use of these forecasts in agency planning.}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-8177\%2808\%2900023-5}, author = {Alan Wain and Graham A. Mills and Lachlan W. McCaw and Brown, T} } @book {BF-2384, title = {Developments in Environmental SciencesWildland Fires and Air PollutionChapter 22 Regional Real-Time Smoke Prediction Systems}, volume = {8}, year = {2008}, pages = {499 - 534}, publisher = {Elsevier}, organization = {Elsevier}, abstract = {Several real-time smoke prediction systems have been developed worldwide to help land managers, farmers, and air quality regulators balance land management needs against smoke impacts. Profiled here are four systems that are currently operational for regional domains for North America and Australia, providing forecasts to a well-developed user community. The systems link fire activity data, fuels information, and consumption and emissions models, with weather forecasts and dispersion models to produce a prediction of smoke concentrations from prescribed fires, wildfires, or agricultural fires across a region. The USDA Forest Service{\textquoteright}s BlueSky system is operational for regional domains across the United States and obtains prescribed burn information and wildfire information from databases compiled by various agencies along with satellite fire detections. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) smoke prediction system is initialized with satellite fire detections and is operational across North America. Washington State University{\textquoteright}s ClearSky agricultural smoke prediction system is operational in the states of Idaho and Washington, and burn location information is input via a secure Web site by regulators in those states. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology smoke prediction system is operational for regional domains across Australia for wildfires and prescribed burning. Operational uses of these systems are emphasized as well as the approaches to evaluate their performance given the uncertainties associated with each system{\textquoteright}s subcomponents. These real-time smoke prediction systems are providing a point of interagency understanding between land managers and air regulators from which to negotiate the conflicting needs of ecological fire use while minimizing air quality health impacts.}, doi = {10.1016/S1474-8177\%2808\%2900022-3}, author = {Susan O{\textquoteright}Neil and N Larkin and Hoadley, Jeanne and Graham A. Mills and Vaughan, K. Joseph and Draxler, Roland and Rolph, Glenn and Ruminski, Mark and Susan Ferguson} } @proceedings {BF-2996, title = {A High-Resolution Historical Fire Climate Data Set For Victoria}, year = {2008}, address = {USA, United States of America }, url = {http://knowledgeweb.afac.com.au/research/fire_behaviour/weather/a_high-resolution_historical_fire_climate_data_set_for_victoria}, author = {Brown, T and Graham A. Mills and T. Ghidey and H. Reinbold} } @article {BF-1028, title = {Objective verification of operational mesoscale NWP model wind change forecasts}, volume = {CTR008, }, year = {2008}, month = {5/07/2009}, pages = {72pp}, institution = {CAWCR }, type = {Technical Report}, url = {http://www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR_008.pdf}, author = {Xinmei, Huang and Yimin, MA and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1092, title = {Analysis of near-surface transport from an oil storage facility at Hovea, Western Australia {\textendash} a year of dispersion modelling.}, year = {2007}, note = {46pp}, month = {9/28/2007}, institution = {Consultancy Report to Arc Energy Pty Ltd}, author = {Alan Wain and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1033, title = {Classifying objectively identified wind changes using synoptic pressure cycles.}, volume = {128}, year = {2007}, month = {5/25/2007}, pages = {60pp}, institution = {BMRC }, type = {Research Report}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/researchreports/RR128.pdf}, author = {Xinmei, Huang and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1021, title = {On easterly changes over elevated terrain in Australia{\textquoteright}s southeast}, journal = {Australian Meteorological Magazine }, volume = {56}, year = {2007}, month = {10/31/2007}, pages = {177-190}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2007/mills.pdf}, author = {Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1034, title = {Northern Australian Seasonal Bushfire Assessment Workshop - 2007}, year = {2007}, month = {7/03/2007}, pages = {25pp}, institution = {Bushfire CRC}, url = {http://www.bushfirecrc.com/sites/default/files/managed/resource/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-nth-aust-07-08.pdf}, author = {Chris Lucas and Murphy, Brett P. and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1091, title = {The Australian Smoke Management Forecast System}, volume = {No 117}, year = {2006}, note = {54pp}, month = {5/18/2006}, url = {http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/researchreports/RR117.pdf}, author = {Alan Wain and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1031, title = {National daily gridded soil moisture deficit and drought factors for use in prediction of forest fire danger index in Australia}, volume = {117}, year = {2006}, month = {7/04/2006}, pages = {68pp}, institution = {BMRC}, type = {Research Report}, url = {http://134.178.63.141/amm/docs/2006/finkele_hres.pdf}, author = {Finkele, K and Graham A. Mills and Beard, G and David Jones} } @article {BF-1018, title = {National gridded drought factors and comparison of two soil moisture deficit formulations used in the rediction of forest fire danger index in Australia}, journal = {Australian Meteorological Magazine }, number = {55}, year = {2006}, month = {10/19/2006}, pages = {183-197}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/2006/finkele.pdf}, author = {Finkele, K and Graham A. Mills and Beard, G and Jones, Trevor} } @article {BF-1019, title = {Objective identification of wind change timing from single station observations Part 1: methodology and comparison with subjective timings.}, journal = {Australian Meteorological Magazine }, volume = {55}, year = {2006}, month = {3/30/2007}, pages = {261-274}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2006/huang1.pdf}, author = {Huang, X and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1020, title = {Objective identification of wind change timing from single station observations Part 2: towards the concept of a wind change climatology.}, journal = {Australian Meteorological Magazine }, volume = {55}, year = {2006}, month = {3/30/2007}, pages = {275-288}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2006/huang2.pdf}, author = {Huang, X and Graham A. Mills} } @article {BF-1017, title = {The Winchelsea Convergence - using radar and mesoscale NWP to diagnose cool change structure.}, journal = {Australian Meteorological Magazine}, volume = {55}, year = {2006}, month = {5/18/2006}, pages = {47-58}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2006/mills.pdf}, author = {Graham A. Mills and Morgan, Gary} } @article {BF-1243, title = {Framework for measuring the value of Australian Bureau of Meteorology fire weather services.Economic Value of Fire Weather Services.}, number = {112}, year = {2005}, month = {Oct-05}, pages = {37-66}, institution = {BMRC }, type = {Research Report}, url = {http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/researchreports/RR112.pdf plus on FKN}, author = {Gunasekera, D and Gonzalez-Caban, A and John Handmer and Graham A. Mills and Bannister, T} }