@article {bnh-2755, title = {Examining bushfire policy in action: Preparedness and behaviour in the 2009 Black Saturday fires}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {63}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, chapter = {55}, abstract = {

An important part of reducing the risk of disaster is the preparedness of the people at risk. Australian bushfire authorities have policies and publicity about what households should do to be prepared {\textendash} which include knowledge about fire risk, awareness of one{\textquoteright}s own risk, taking specific steps to reduce risk including having an emergency plan. Yet, there is sparse empirical evidence about the link between preparedness and actual behaviour in the face of a major disaster.

The authors had an opportunity to examine the circumstances surrounding the 172 civilian fatalities which occurred in the 2009 Victorian {\textquoteleft}Black Saturday{\textquoteright} bushfires, through the examination of a detailed fatality dataset compiled by the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission. This dataset allows detailed examination of Victorian bushfire safety policy ({\textquoteleft}Stay or go{\textquoteright}) in action on a day of extreme fire danger: from preparedness (both before and on the day of the fire) to behaviour on the day of the fire itself.

This analysis presents three overarching findings. First, some aspects of {\textquoteleft}Stay or go{\textquoteright} appear to be supported: being well-prepared to evacuate remains the safest option in a bushfire; sheltering passively is very dangerous. Second, successful implementation of {\textquoteleft}Stay or go{\textquoteright} depends on a multitude of factors, which can challenge even the most capable householders. Third, events like Black Saturday challenge the {\textquoteleft}Stay or go{\textquoteright} approach, and indicate the need for a different approach on extreme fire danger days. We conclude by reflecting on the findings from this research in terms of the most recent changes to bushfire policy in Victoria.

}, keywords = {Behaviour, Preparedness, Safety policy, Vulnerability, Wildfire}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2016.05.011}, url = {http://authors.elsevier.com/a/1T6tW5Ce0rOF7M}, author = {John Handmer and O{\textquoteright}Neill, Saffron J} } @article {BF-3124, title = {Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {7}, year = {2012}, month = {01/2012}, pages = {014018}, abstract = {The 2009 {\textquoteleft}Black Saturday{\textquoteright} bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia{\textquoteright}s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy {\textquoteleft}Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early{\textquoteright} ({\textquoteleft}Stay or Go{\textquoteright}), plus an examination of the Commission{\textquoteright}s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved.}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014018}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Neill, Saffron J and John Handmer} }