@conference {bnh-6411,
	title = {Fire weather and prototype fire danger ratings for the Gell River fire, Tasmania},
	booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19},
	year = {2019},
	month = {12/2019},
	address = {Melbourne},
	abstract = {<p>We provide a preliminary analysis of the meteorology of key aspects of the Gell River fire in Tasmania during late December 2018 and early January 2019, including the lightning storm that ignited the fire, and conditions on 4 January 2019, when the fire increased substantially in size. We also briefly assess the performance of the Australian National Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) Research Prototype available on 4 January against observations of fire spread and routine McArthur Forest Fire Danger forecasts.</p><p>The Gell River fire occurred within a context of declining October {\textendash} April rainfall in western Tasmania over the last two decades, in comparison to the average rainfall for the period since 1900 (Fig. 1, Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2018)). It was one of several large fires that competed for fire management resources over an extended period during the 2018-2019 Tasmanian fire season. The fire impacted natural values including those of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) and risked spreading into parts of the iconic Mt Field National Park, as well as threatening a number of communities in the Derwent Valley, particularly Maydena. The Gell River fire also threatened major electrical transmission infrastructure connecting the large Gordon-Pedder power generation facility in the west of Tasmania to population centres in the east, and burnt approximately 500 ha of a 5,000 ha pine plantation. On 4 January, thick smoke from the fire crossed over the Greater Hobart area, sparking concern and raising awareness within the wider community about the fire activity (Fig. 2).</p>},
	keywords = {Fire behaviour, Fire weather, modelling},
	url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/},
	author = {Paul Fox-Hughes and Stuart Matthews and Chris Collins and Saskia Grootemaat and Jennifer J Hollis and Alexander Holmes and Belinda Kenny and John Runcie and Samuel Sauvage}
}
@article {BF-3466,
	title = {Anatomy of a catastrophic wildfire: The Black Saturday Kilmore East fire in Victoria, Australia},
	journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
	year = {2012},
	month = {8/2012},
	abstract = {The 7 February 2009 wildfires in south-eastern Australia burned over 450,000 ha and resulted in 173 human fatalities. The Kilmore East fire was the most significant of these fires, burning 100,000 ha in less than 12 h and accounting for 70\% of the fatalities. We report on the weather conditions, fuels and propagation of this fire to gain insights into the physical processes involved in high intensity fire behaviour in eucalypt forests. Driven by a combination of exceedingly dry fuel and near-gale to gale force winds, the fire developed a dynamic of profuse short range spotting that resulted in rates of fire spread varying between 68 and 153 m min-1 and average fireline intensities up to 88,000 kW m-1. Strong winds aloft and the development of a strong convection plume led to the transport of firebrands over considerable distances causing the ignition of spotfires up to 33 km ahead of the main fire front. The passage of a wind change between 17:30 and 18:30 turned the approximately 55 km long eastern flank of the fire into a headfire. Spotting and mass fire behaviour associated with this wide front resulted in the development of a pyrocumulonimbus cloud that injected smoke and other combustion products into the lower stratosphere. The benchmark data collected in this case study will be invaluable for the evaluation of fire behaviour models. The study is also a source of real world data from which simulation studies investigating the impact of landscape fuel management on the propagation of fire under the most severe burning conditions can be undertaken.},
	issn = {03781127},
	doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2012.02.035},
	author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and Sullivan, Andrew and J.S. Gould and Sims, N.C. and Bannister, A.J. and Jennifer J Hollis and Hurley, R.J.}
}
@article {BF-3088,
	title = {Behind the flaming zone: Predicting woody fuel consumption in eucalypt forest fires in southern Australia},
	journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
	volume = {261},
	year = {2011},
	month = {6/2011},
	pages = {2049 - 2067},
	abstract = {Pre-fire woody fuel (diameter > 0.6 cm) structure and its consumption by fire were measured at experimental/prescribed fires and high intensity wildfires in eucalypt forests in southern Australia in order to better understand and model the dynamics of woody fuel consumption. Two approaches were used in model development: (1) a fire or plot level analysis, based on a dataset which includes the proportion of the pre-fire woody fuel load consumed at each fire; and (2) a stage level analysis, based on a dataset where woody fuel consumption was measured at a woody fuel particle level (i.e. pre-fire and post-fire diameter). For the plot level analysis a generalised linear model (GLM) approach identified the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) as the best predictor of the proportion of woody fuel consumed, with an R2 of 0.58 and mean absolute error of 10\%. The stage level analysis recognised the various combustion stages through which a burning woody particle would pass, but failed to develop an accurate model that predicted the ignition, partial and full consumption of woody fuels based on fuel, fire behaviour and environmental variables. Analysis showed that consumption of woody fuel particles is highly variable and that variation in fire behaviour potentially has a greater impact on woody fuel consumption, than does variation in fuel characteristics (e.g. state of decay, fuel suspension and interactions with other fuel particles). The FFDI GLM provides forest and fire managers with a tool to manage woody fuel consumption objectives and may assist fire managers with forecasting post-frontal fire behaviour. The FFDI GLM may also assist forest and fire managers to better meet land management goals and to comply with air quality and emission targets.},
	doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2011.02.031},
	author = {Jennifer J Hollis and Stuart Matthews and Wendy R. Anderson and Cruz, Miguel G. and Burrows, N.D.}
}
@article {BF-3089,
	title = {The effect of aerial suppression on the containment time of Australian wildfires estimated by fire management personnel},
	journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
	year = {2011},
	abstract = {The addition of aerial firefighting resources to wildfire suppression operations does not always result in faster fire containment. In this paper, containment times of fires with aerial suppression are compared with estimated containment times for the same fires without aerial suppression. Senior firefighting personnel who had worked on each fire estimated whether fires could have been contained within a time class if aircraft were not available. Data from 251 wildfires were analysed based on four fire-containment time classes: <=2, 2{\textendash}4, 4{\textendash}8 and 8{\textendash}24 h from the start of initial attack. Aircraft were perceived to reduce time to containment when firefighting conditions were more challenging owing to fuel hazard rating, weather conditions, slope, resource response times and area burning at initial attack. Comparisons of containment time with and without aircraft can be used to develop operational tools to help dispatchers decide when aircraft should be deployed to newly detected fires.},
	doi = {10.1071/WF11063},
	author = {Matt P Plucinski and G.J. McCarthy and Jennifer J Hollis and J.S. Gould}
}
@article {BF-3087,
	title = {The Effect of Fireline Intensity on Woody Fuel Consumption in Southern Australian Eucalypt Forest Fires},
	journal = {Australian Forestry},
	volume = {74},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {81-96},
	abstract = {The relationship between woody fuel consumption and fireline intensity was assessed using data collected at controlled fires and wildfires in south-western Western Australia, central Victoria and south-eastern New South Wales. The combined dataset consisted of fires in a range of dry eucalypt forests. Fire behaviour varied from slow, self-extinguishing prescribed burns to intense, fast-moving fires burning under conditions of extreme fire danger. Fireline intensity ranged from 50 kW m-1 to > 31 000 kW m-1. Woody fuel consumption ranged from 31\% to 100\%, and generally increased with fire intensity. Percentage consumption was highest for small woody fuels where the diameter was between 0.6 cm and 2.5 cm. Fireline intensity had a statistically significant, positive relationship with the proportion of woody fuel consumed by both controlled fires and wildfires. Two generalised linear models (GLM) describing woody fuel consumption as a function of fireline intensity were developed, one applicable to the prescribed fire environment (with fireline intensities typically < 750 kW m-1) and the other to the full range of fireline intensities. The prescribed burning model produced the best fit and lowest error statistics.

The findings of this research have important practical implications for the management of fire to reduce fuel loads, maintain habitat and manage carbon stocks in fire-prone eucalypt forests. The woody fuel consumption models presented may assist the assessment of potential climate change impacts on coarse woody debris in Australian southern eucalypt forests. The results of this research suggest that predicted changes to fire regimes and fire intensity associated with climate change in southern Australia could result in greater woody fuel consumption and carbon release during bushfires and a reduction in woody fuel loads in dry eucalypt forests. Use of low-intensity prescribed fires may provide a practical way of managing woody fuel stocks to achieve particular land management objectives.},
	url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=365294696940897;res=IELHSS},
	author = {Jennifer J Hollis and Wendy R. Anderson and Lachlan W. McCaw and Cruz, Miguel G. and Burrows, N.D. and Ward, B. and Tolhurst, K.G. and J.S. Gould}
}
@mastersthesis {BF-3094,
	title = {Predicting woody fuel consumption in eucalypt forest fires in southern Australia},
	volume = {PhD},
	year = {2011},
	school = {ADFA @ UNSW},
	type = {PhD},
	abstract = {Consumption of woody fuel (diameter > 0.6 cm) during forest fires has important implications for fire suppression and firefighter safety, fire behaviour, ecological effects of fire and emissions of carbon and smoke. The ability to accurately predict woody fuel consumption is therefore important to support both forest and fire management decision making. However, information on woody fuel consumption in eucalypt forest fires in southern Australia is scant and the predictive capacity of existing models is unknown. Pre-fire woody fuel structure and its consumption by fire was measured in eucalypt forests at experimental/prescribed fires and high intensity wildfires as part of the Woody Fuel Consumption Project (WFCP) in south-western Western Australia and northern-central Victoria. Three additional datasets were also sourced to increase variation in forest type, fuel complex and fire characteristics. These comprised data from south-western Western Australia collected as part of Project Aquarius, the Warra Long Term Ecological Research site in Tasmania and Tumbarumba in south-eastern New South Wales. Data were combined to better understand and model the dynamics of woody fuel consumption and evaluate five existing models for the consumption of woody fuels for potential application in southern Australian eucalypt forest fires. The proportion of woody fuel consumed by forest fires was highly variable, ranging from 9 to 100\%. Evaluation statistics for existing models were best for the Australian National Carbon Accounting System model which assumes 50\% woody fuel consumption, however this assumption failed to capture large deviations where woody fuel consumption has been particularly high or low. CONSUME Activity and CONSUME Southern Woody models underpredicted observations while the CONSUME Western Woody model had very little bias and a better proportion of predictions within {\textpm}10\% of the observed woody fuel consumption. The BURNUP model showed the greatest overall level of error when used with natural fuels; however its performance improved when applied to heavy, modified fuel loads resulting from timber harvesting operations. A generalised linear model (GLM) approach to model development identified the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) as the best predictor of the proportion of woody fuel consumed. Fireline intensity also had a statistically significant, positive relationship with the proportion of woody fuel consumed. Analysis of combustion stages did not improve the ability of models to predict ignition, partial and full consumption of woody fuels. However, analysis showed that variation in fire behaviour potentially has a greater impact on woody fuel consumption, than variation in fuel characteristics. },
	url = {http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/159738628?l-format=Thesis\&sortby=dateDesc\&q=jennifer+hollis\&l-australian=y\&c=book },
	author = {Jennifer J Hollis}
}
@article {BF-3090,
	title = {A simple method for field-based grassland curing assessment},
	journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
	volume = {20},
	year = {2011},
	month = {2011},
	pages = {804},
	abstract = {The degree of grassland curing represents the proportion of dead material in a grassland fuel complex, expressed as a percentage. It is an important input for models to predict rate of fire spread and determine fire danger levels in grasslands. The degree of curing is currently determined in Australia and New Zealand using a combination of satellite imagery and ground-based visual observations by operational personnel. Both methods present problems. The satellite imagery technique requires updating to accommodate newer satellite technology, as well as extension and validation across all of the major grasslands in both countries. Visual assessments are often both inaccurate and spatially inadequate across the landscape. This paper describes the development of a field-based method to accurately and easily determine curing levels in the field, based on modification of an existing point quadrat method of pasture assessment. This alternative technique minimises subjective assessment by field observers, and involves tallying the number of live and dead touches on a thin steel rod driven into the ground. The average error across sites was lower for exotic improved pastures than native grasslands. Results suggest that this method can be applied across Australasia more accurately than current methods.},
	doi = {10.1071/WF10069},
	author = {Stuart AJ Anderson and Wendy R. Anderson and Jennifer J Hollis and Botha, Elizabeth J.}
}
@proceedings {BF-3092,
	title = {Assessing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian forest fires},
	year = {2010},
	author = {Jennifer J Hollis and Stuart Matthews and Ottmar, R.D. and S.J. Prichard and Slijepcevic, A. and Burrows, N.D. and Ward, B. and Tolhurst, K.G. and Wendy R. Anderson and J.S. Gould}
}
@article {BF-2582,
	title = {Testing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires},
	journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
	volume = {260},
	year = {2010},
	month = {08/2010},
	pages = {948 - 964},
	abstract = {Five models for the consumption of coarse woody debris or woody fuels with a diameter larger than 0.6 cm were assessed for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires including: CONSUME models for (1) activity fuels, (2) natural western woody and (3) natural southern woody fuels, (4) the BURNUP model and (5) the recommendation by the Australian National Carbon Accounting System which assumes 50\% woody fuel consumption. These models were assessed using field data collected as part of the woody fuel consumption project (WFCP) in south-west Western Australia and northern-central Victoria. Three additional datasets were also sourced to increase variability in forest type, fuel complex and fire characteristics. These datasets comprised data from south-west Western Australia collected as part of Project Aquarius, the Warra Long Term Ecological Research site in Tasmania and Tumbarumba in south-eastern New South Wales. Combined the dataset represents a range of fire behaviour characteristic of prescribed burning conditions with a maximum fireline intensity of almost 4000 kW m-1.

Woody fuel consumption was found to be highly variable between sites ranging from 9.1\% to 89.9\%. Relationships between woody fuel consumption and the primary model drivers were weak (maximum R2 = 0.097). Model evaluation statistics were best for the National Carbon Accounting Systems assumption of 50\% with a mean absolute error of 11.1\% fuel consumption and minimal bias (0.12). Nonetheless, this assumption does not capture large deviations where woody fuel consumption has been particularly high or low. The BURNUP model yielded the largest level of error when used with natural fuels however its predictive capacity improved when used with large modified fuel loads resulting from clearcut operations.},
	doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2010.06.007},
	author = {Jennifer J Hollis and Stuart Matthews and Ottmar, R.D. and S.J. Prichard and Slijepcevic, A. and Burrows, N.D. and Ward, B. and Tolhurst, K.G. and Wendy R. Anderson and J.S. Gould}
}
@article {BF-1047,
	title = {The Effectiveness and Efficiency of Aerial Firefighting in Australia},
	year = {2007},
	month = {7/05/2007},
	institution = {Bushfire CRC },
	type = {Research Report},
	author = {Matt P Plucinski and J.S. Gould and G.J. McCarthy and Jennifer J Hollis}
}
