@article {bnh-5043, title = {An improved approach to understanding the drivers of natural hazard risk, by considering social vulnerability and hazard likelihood}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {University of Adelaide}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

A natural hazard becomes a natural disaster when individuals, communities and infrastructure are\ impacted (Smith, Martin \& Cockings 2016). The economic and social repercussions of natural disasters\ create a need for improved approaches to reduce natural hazard risk. To enable this, a better\ understanding of what influences hazard risk, and how these drivers can be affected, is required. The\ conceptual framework proposed in this report presents a method to breakdown and understand\ natural hazard risk, for a non-specific hazard in a non-specific location. The framework incorporates\ hazard, exposure, vulnerability to evaluate current risk, and uses an exploratory scenario approach to\ evaluate future risk. This understanding enables decision makers to form long term plans to reduce\ natural hazard risk. A sensitivity analysis of the drivers of hazard risk has been included in the\ framework alongside mitigation to inform effective and targeted mitigation strategies.\ The conceptual framework was applied to a case study to understand the influence of Social\ Vulnerability on Hazard Risk by considering a bushfire hazard in Greater Adelaide. The case study\ application demonstrates how the framework can be used to make decisions in real world contexts\ and assesses the impact of mitigation on reducing hazard risk. The conceptual framework successfully\ identified the areas in Greater Adelaide with the highest Social Vulnerability and Bushfire Hazard\ Likelihood and assessed how these will change in the future. The implementation of certain mitigation\ and co-benefit policies positively impacted the Social Vulnerability and Hazard Risk in Greater\ Adelaide. Having demonstrated its utility, it is recommended that the conceptual framework be\ applied to other natural hazards, to better understand the influence of Social Vulnerability on Natural\ Hazard Risk.

}, author = {Molly O{\textquoteright}Callaghan and Evangeline Moore and Yasmin Zahr and Phillippa Radford} }