@article {bnh-8234, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - research methodology for scenario development}, number = {709}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

This document presents the research methodology behind the development of the scenarios.

It is designed to be read in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook and the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology pack, which includes:

All of these documents can be found\ here.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {709}, author = {Reos Partners} }