Published works

Research in the social science area have pointed out that "traditional" hazard-based forecasts and warnings may not be well understood so that mitigating actions for the protection of life and property are not taken (Demuth et al. 2012). The extension of a hazard forecast towards the description of impacts on the forecast recipient might effect a more suitable mitigating response and has led to an emerging and growing desire among National Hydrological and Meteorological Services for impact-based forecasts and warnings (Harrowsmith 2015; World Meteorological Organization 2015).

A number of major weather services (e.g. UK Met Office, Bureau of Meteorology) have therefore introduced impact-based services in recognition of the above findings. Since 2011 the UK Met Office has issued impact-based warnings where the warning level is derived from a risk matrix in a partly subjective procedure (Met Office 2018). In a related manner, the Extreme Weather Desk at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has recently developed the Community Hazard Risk Outlook. Forecasters subjectively rate the expected impact level of a model-predicted hazard on a range of assets from which an aggregated impact level is calculated. Combined with a subjective likelihood assessment the UK Met Office risk matrix concept is again utilised to derive an overall hazard risk.

In addition to subjective or partly subjective impact specifications, the factors influential in the final likelihood, location or magnitude of an impact can be delivered as layers, which leaves their integration to the user. An example of such a system is the Global Hazard Map, also produced by the UK Met Office (Robbins and Titley 2018).