Published works

Using the rich and extensive Australian Longitudinal Census Dataset (ALCD) of 2006 and 2011, this study investigates the effects of the Victorian Black Saturday Bushfires (BSB) 2009 on the incomes of individuals living in disaster-hit areas.  In a unique approach, we compute the share of burnt areas in the total surface area of the Statistical Area-2 (SA2) to measure the geographical variations in disaster severity, and match this measure with the individuals’ income and demographics data in the ALCD. Our methodology is based on a difference-indifferences approach, whereby we compare the incomes of individuals living in disaster-hit SA2s before and after the catastrophe with those of individuals who live in the neighbouring SA2s with no bushfire exposure.  Our results are novel, informative, and have significant policy implications. We find that the average income effect of the BSB was negative and statistically significant for individuals who lived in the disaster-hit SA2s between 2006 and 2011. Our estimates suggest that an individual living in an SA2 with average bushfire severity measure experienced an estimated 14% to 21% income loss following the disaster.   An additional crucial finding is related to the income differences between those who stayed in the disaster-hit areas following the disaster and those who moved out of the burnt areas. The negative income effect is not only significant for non-movers, but also greater in magnitude for those who migrated out of the disaster-hit SA2s following the catastrophe. This finding suggests that individuals might have made their out-migration decisions based on severe income losses after the disaster. We conclude that migration decisions of individuals into or out of disaster-hit areas is an important future avenue of research that could offer substantial policy implications for community resilience and economic recovery post disasters.