Dr Alexander Holmes’ PhD investigated the effects of soil moisture, temperature and precipitation extremes on fire risk and intensity, providing fire and land management agencies with a better understanding of the mechanics behind soil moisture deficits and their influence on fire intensity. Evidence through
the research showed that fire intensity increases logarithmically with decreasing moisture, Alex explained.
“The research showed that fire intensity increases logarithmically with decreasing moisture. This means that larger and more intense fires are likely to occur closer to population centres located around the coasts of Australia as climate change exacerbates drought conditions,” he said.
As part of the CRC project Improving land dryness measures and forecasts, Alex’s research was also used in establishing the high-resolution soil-moisture analysis system, JASMIN, which provides greater accuracy than previous models.
Alex now works as a scientific researcher at the NSW Rural Fire Service where he is responsible for producing computer programs and code to manipulate and create datasets, as well as analyse their physical properties. Part of this role includes researching potential improvements in the models used by the new National Fire Danger Ratings System.
His thesis is available here.
Student project
Resources credited
| Type | Released | Title | Download | Key Topics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presentation-Slideshow | 27 Aug 2019 | Detecting Active Fires using Himawari-8: a report from the NSW trial |
 Save (2.9 MB) |
fire, fire impacts |
| Presentation-Slideshow | 27 Aug 2019 | Fire weather and prototype fire danger ratings for the Gell River fire, Tasmania |
Save (4.64 MB) |
fire, fire weather |
| HazardNoteEdition | 14 Jun 2017 | Soil moisture prototype improves forecasts |
Save (186.47 KB) |
forecasting, land management, soil moisture |
| 25 Sep 2015 | Alex Holmes PhD Progress Report 2015 |
Save (67.1 KB) |
