End User representatives
Bushfires affect the surrounding atmosphere because of the large amount of heat and moisture released as a result of combustion. The atmospheric response to this energy input includes changes to the local winds, modification of the boundary layer, and the development of pyroconvective clouds. These changes can profoundly modify the evolution of the fire.
This project is:
- Developing an Australian coupled fireatmosphere modelling capability based upon the national numerical weather prediction infrastructure.
- Developing a better understanding the contribution of fire-atmosphere interaction and three dimensional atmospheric structure to fire behaviour, including spread, intensification, and ‘low-up’ behaviour.
- Developing a better understanding the impact of fire on the atmosphere, including fire-generated winds and their damage potential, ember transport and plume development.
- Progressing towards an eventual operational capability for coupled fireatmosphere modelling within Australia.
- Improving operational fire prediction services by efficiently transferring the knowledge gained in this project and others to fire weather forecasters and to fire behaviour analysts.
- Exploring the development of computationally efficient methods for robustly accounting for fireatmosphere coupling in fire prediction.
The project uses the premier operational Australian high-resolution weather prediction model, the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator, coupled to a fire-spread model.
The January 2016 Waroona bushfire in Western Australia has been selected as the first case study to test the model.
Over a two-day period, there were two separate pyro-convective thunderstorms, triggered by different processes. In addition, analysis of Doppler radar data shows detail of the rapid plume development that contributed to the ember shower which burnt Yarloop, causing two fatalities.
This research into interactions with topography, potential for pyro-convection, potential for three dimensional interactions, potential for winds to change substantially around a fire, water vapour dry slots, plume development and spotting process will be integrated into a formal, quantitative system for use with the current fire forecasting system.
|2016||Report||Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling: Annual project report 2015-2016. (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2016).|
|2015||Presentation||Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Modelling. (2015).|
|20 Oct 2014||Managing severe weather - progress and opportunities||risk management, severe weather|
|22 Oct 2014||Managing severe weather: progress and opportunities||forecasting, risk management, severe weather|
|27 Oct 2014||The effects of fire-plume dynamics on the spread of long range spotting||fire, modelling|
|01 Apr 2015||Fire Australia Autumn 2015||8.64 MB (8.64 MB)||fire, modelling, severe weather|
|02 Sep 2015||The Sydney 2014 Forecasting Demonstration Project A Step from Research to Operations||1.27 MB (1.27 MB)||fire impacts, fire weather, severe weather|
|22 Mar 2016||Severe and High Impact Weather - cluster overview||0 bytes (0 bytes)||fire, modelling, scenario analysis|
|24 Oct 2016||Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling project||2.46 MB (2.46 MB)||fire severity, fire weather, modelling|
|25 Oct 2016||Next generation fire modelling||1.35 MB (1.35 MB)||fire impacts, fire severity, fire weather|
In January 2015, the Sampson flat bushfire burnt in the Adelaide hills. it was active for 6 days, burning 12,500 ha, 27 homes, numerous sheds and 900 animals. This study focuses on the meteorological conditions on the day of ignition Friday 2 January. the major fire run occurred the following day.
Coupled fire-atmosphere models show three-dimensional interactions between a fire and the surrounding atmosphere.
|Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour||Dr Trent Penman||University of Melbourne|
|Fire coalescence and mass spotfire dynamics: Experimentation, modelling and simulation||A/Prof Jason Sharples||University of New South Wales|