Policy and Economics of Hazards


Queensland cyclone 2009_4
Queensland cyclone 2009_4

Project Status:

Realistic disaster scenarios can be used to facilitate response planning and policymaking. They allow emergency managers to visualise the impacts of plausible events before they happen. For this study, the scenarios are classed as realistic because they have not occurred previously, but have a high likelihood of occurring and causing extensive damage. As many details as possible are taken into account, such as likely infrastructure damage, likely injuries and fatalities, loss of essential services and utilities and short- and long-term impacts of the disaster.

Using Realistic Disaster Scenario Analysis - Andrew Gissing and Simon Opper

Realistic disaster scenarios help us better understand disasters. They allow endusers to visualise potential impacts before disasters happen and proactively plan for these events. In this project, realistic disaster scenarios are being developed using catastrophe loss models so that vulnerable areas, utilities and assets within our major cities can be identified.

The scenarios will quantify the impacts on society, critical infrastructure, lifelines and buildings, along with the natural environment. This information will allow end-users to understand the implications of these events for their agencies and their industries so they can better prepare for, or mitigate the impacts of, events that are beyond their experience.

The hazards being considered are earthquake, cyclone, flood, tsunami and bushfire.

The project will develop a modelling framework so the impacts of hazard events can be quantified.

The project has developed complete scenarios for an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 occurring in the Para fault underneath the Adelaide CBD, a cyclone affecting south east Queensland, and a heatwave in Melbourne. Researchers have presented at several conferences in Australia and published in industry magazines on these scenarios.

8 February, 2017
New journal articles and reports on CRC research are available online.
Cyclone Testing Station group
7 December, 2016
CRC researchers from James Cook University and the University of Queensland met recently to discuss pre-tropical cyclone actions and undertake cyclone deployment strategy testing.
AJEM October 2016 cover
26 October, 2016
Many peer-reviewed papers from the AFAC16 powered by INTERSCHUTZ Research Forum have been published in a special edition of the Australian Journal of Emergency Management.
14 September, 2016
New journal articles and reports on CRC research are available online.
15 March, 2016
New journal articles and reports on CRC research are available.
Research is modelling the potential impact of disasters beyond our experience
4 March, 2016
This case study outlines a methodology for building realistic earthquake disaster scenarios for major cities, using Adelaide as an example.
Fire Australia magazine 2015/16 edition
29 February, 2016
The Summer 2015/2016 edition of Fire Australia magazine features key research that’s making an impact on the fire, emergency services and land management sectors.
Christchurch earthquake
16 July, 2015
Short new videos on three CRC research projects explain the aims of the science underway and how end users will benefit from the work.
Kat Haynes ASPIRE award
25 May, 2015
Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC researcher Dr Katharine Haynes has been selected as the Australian nomination for the prestigious APEC Science Prize for Innovation, Research and Education Award for 2015.
Christchurch earthquake
29 October, 2014
This is the second newsletter for 2014 from the Fatalities and Building Losses project, with updates for the project end-users and associates.
Year Type Citation
2017 Report Koschatzky, V., O'Brien, J. & Somerville, P. Earthquake Scenario, Melbourne. (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2017).
2016 Conference Paper Krupar, III, R. & Mason, M. S. Forecasting the impact of tropical cyclones using global numerical weather prediction ensemble forecasts: a Tropical Cyclone Marcia (2015) wind and rainfall case study. AFAC16 (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2016).
2016 Conference Paper Kloetzke, T., Mason, M. S. & Krupar, III, R. Evaluating topographic influences on the near-surface wind field of Tropical Cyclone Ita (2014) using WRF-ARW. AFAC16 (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2016).
2016 Conference Paper Rumsewicz, M. Research proceedings from the 2016 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC conference. Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC & AFAC annual conference 2016 (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2016).
2016 Report Mason, M. S. A southeast Queensland tropical cyclone scenario. (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2016).
2016 Report Loridan, T. Using realistic disaster scenario analysis to understand natural hazard impacts and emergency management requirements: Annual project report 2015-2016. (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2016).
2015 Conference Paper Rumsewicz, M. Research proceedings from the 2015 Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC & AFAC conference. Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC & AFAC annual conference 2015 (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2015).
2015 Report Mason, M. S. & Parackal, K. I. Vulnerability of buildings and civil infrastructure to tropical cyclones: A preliminary review of modelling approaches and literature. (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2015).
2015 Report de Oliveira, F. Dimer & Mason, M. S. Using natural disaster scenarios to better understand emergency management requirements: Annual project report 2014-2015. (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2015).
2014 Journal Article Coates, L., Haynes, K., O'Brien, J., McAneney, J. & de Oliveira, F. Dimer. Exploring 167 years of vulnerability: An examination of extreme heat events in Australia 1844–2010. Environmental Science and Policy 42, 33-44 (2014).
Can we better understand how scientific knowledges work in risk mitigation through scenario exercises?
25 Aug 2014

This project focuses on how a better understanding of the role of science in decision-making will help industry articulate and defend decisions to the community, media, inquiries and elsewhere, and, better frame information and advice on how scientists and professionals communicate.

Key Topics:
Disruption of critical infrastructure during prolonged natural disasters
25 Aug 2014

The project aims to qualify and quantify the impacts of prolonged and multi-hazard natural hazard events on utility, transport and/or communication networks; and to also understand the interconnectedness of these critical services. 

Key Topics:
Realistic Disaster Scenarios: Severe Tropical Cyclone SE QLD
18 Aug 2015

What if a category 4 tropical cyclone impacted south east Queensland? What would the impacts be? Could our emergency services cope? strong cyclones have come close to the densely populated south east of Queensland, but impacts have been limited. this will not always be the case. This project explores the impacts of a severe tropical cyclone on the region and asks, can these impacts be forecast?

A Mw 9.0 Adelaide Earthquake Scenario
18 Aug 2015

What-if a magnitude 6.0 earthquake happened near Adelaide SA? IN this project we have developed such scenario by using Risk Frontiers earthquake loss model QuakeAUS to calculate losses to property, infrastructure and casualties.

Richard Krupar III Conference Poster 2016
12 Aug 2016

The study of historical occurrences of natural disasters only provides a very limited view of the full range of risk Australia is exposed to.

Key Topics:
Thomas Kloetzke Conference Poster 2016
12 Aug 2016

This study utilises the advanced research version of the weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model to investigate topographic influences on track and intensity of tropical cyclone ita (2014).

Key Topics:

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