@article {bnh-8377, title = {Implementation of spatially-varying wind adjustment factor for wildfire simulations}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {163}, year = {2023}, month = {05/2023}, pages = {105660}, abstract = {

The behaviour and rate of spread of a wildfire is strongly affected by local wind conditions depending on topography and surrounding vegetation. The wind speed within dense vegetation can be substantially lower than the open wind speed above the vegetation. This is commonly accounted for by applying a local correction factor to the local wind speed which can be called the wind adjustment factor (WAF). WAFs are often difficult to calculate and are usually based estimates for a particular vegetation type. Variation in the vegetation may result in spatially varying WAFs. We implement a model for spatially-varying WAFs based on leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation height data, which can be derived from remote sensing data sources. The model is implemented within Spark an operational wildfire prediction framework. Simulations of historical fires using the spatially-varying WAF model generally provided improved predictions compared to recorded fire extents than simulations without a spatially-varying WAF.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, modeling, spread, WAF, Wildfire, wind adjustment factor}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105660}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364815223000464?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Duncan Sutherland and Mahmood Rashid and James Hilton and Khalid Moinuddin} } @article {bnh-8329, title = {Analysis and characterisation of bushfire-meets-prescribed burn events from the 2019-20 fire season - Black Summer final report}, number = {683}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The objective of this project was stated in the Research Services Agreement as: {\textquotedblleft}to develop a novel dataset that will capture information about individual bushfire-meets-prescribed burn events. The initial focus will be on those interactions that occurred during the 2019/20 fire season.{\textquotedblright} In other words, the project was to design a database that will allow evaluation of prescribed burns from planning stages to ultimate outcomes, and start using the data for some cases. In this report, we begin by outlining this dataset and its sources of information, though we have not populated it. Instead, we list potential evaluations that could be done with and conduct two evaluations with components of the data.

The core of the proposed fire-meets-fire dataset is matched reporting from the Burn Plan (before) and Burn Report (on completion), especially area, fuel, moisture and weather variables. Some of this is not routinely reported in the current Elements System (for example 21\% of burns had no actual area burnt recorded and most burns were missing fuel information). The dataset should also ingest information from fire severity mapping (which is now routine) and smoke impact. If the burn meets a bushfire a new range of information is available and should be ingested, including the severity of the bushfire within the burn. The advantage that the burn gave to firefighters is hard to gauge simply from fire severity, so additional information is needed, most importantly from firefighter interviews, but also by more detailed GIS examination of bushfire behavior.

There are many evaluations that could be done with this dataset, from simple metrics such as percent of planned area actually burnt, to refinement of weather prescriptions for burns to whole-of-program evaluations applied to all burns such as the severity analysis presented here.

Sections 3 and 4 are examples of whole of program evaluations. Section 4 is an analysis of severity reduction in the 2019/20 bushfires relating the occurrence of high severity fire in ~100,000 points to the fire history at those points, and controlling for vegetation, weather and topography. This found that in dry sclerophyll, recent burning (up to ~five years) reduced the probability of high severity fire and even more so if that previous burn was at low severity.

Section 4 uses visual interpretation of the 2019/20 bushfire severity and progression mapping to attribute each previous prescribed burn with its effect on the bushfire. This ranged from stopping the bushfire altogether (having a common boundary) to simple severity reduction (was the bushfire severity reduced in the burn?). We found that 30\% of burns from 2014 were encountered by the bushfires. Of these 509 burns, 13\% of them were aligned with the final fire boundary, 42\% of recent burns (one or two years old) caused some unburnt patches within the burn, and 68\% caused a severity reduction. Burns older than this had much less effect, and we found two cases where a burn left an unburnt shadow behind it (meaning shadows are very rare events). We were able to cross-reference our interpretation for 14 burns to interviews from another pilot project. This revealed broad agreement, but also highlighted several cases where a burn gave firefighters an advantage that could not be found in the GIS. Three of these were cases where the bushfire slowed down (sometimes for several days), allowing firefighters time to prepare. There were two cases where burns outside of the burn perimeter effectively reduced spotting activity.

The project demonstrates what can be done to evaluate prescribed burning programs and that a wide range of data is required to do this thoroughly. The 2019/20 bushfire season was extraordinary in many ways. Our analysis suggests that one of these ways was that prescribed burns only reduced fire behavior if they were one or two years old. Analyses of previous seasons generally find a longer lasting effect. Even so, there were many instances where prescribed burns helped firefighters, including in ways that are not obvious in GIS analyses.

}, keywords = {2019-20, analysis, black summer, Bushfire, characterisation, prescribed burn}, issn = {683}, author = {Owen Price and James Barker and Simin Rahmani and Wilkinson, Carrie and Donald MacDonald} } @article {bnh-7980, title = {Black Summer - how the NSW community responded to the 2019-20 bushfire season}, number = {651}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, pages = {130}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 2019-20 bushfire season saw unprecedented, destructive bushfires across New South Wales (NSW). After an early start to the fire season in August 2019, fires spread south from the Queensland border to the Victorian border over the course of spring and summer. Tens of thousands of people were displaced by the fires, including residents, tourists and visitors to affected areas. Significant rainfall in early February 2020 helped contain the fires by February 13 and brought an end to the most deadly and destructive fire season in NSW history. Tragically, 26 people lost their lives in the fires, including four NSW RFS volunteers and three US aerial firefighters. Many more people were affected by smoke, including in regional areas and major population centres such as the north coast, Sydney, Canberra, Newcastle and Wollongong. By season{\textquoteright}s end, fires had burned a record 5.5 million hectares of NSW and destroyed 2,448 homes (NSW RFS 2020). Community and commercial buildings and infrastructure were also significantly impacted on. The fires adversely affected many industries, including agriculture, forestry and tourism.

The NSW RFS engaged the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre to conduct research into community preparedness, warnings and responses to the 2019-20 NSW bushfires. The NSW RFS identified eight key themes for investigation, including: (i) risk communication; (ii) effect of prolonged and repeated exposure to bushfire on planning, preparation and responses; (iii) effect of previous experience and exposure to bushfire on planning, preparation and responses; (iv) sheltering practices; (v) experiences of tourists and visitors; (vi) awareness and attitudes toward bushfire risk reduction; (vii) building standards; and (viii) community recovery and resilience.

This report presents findings from research into community attitudes and experiences of the 2019-20 bushfire season undertaken for the NSW RFS. The NSW RFS Statement of Work identified the following themes and questions for investigation:

}, keywords = {Bushfire, communication, communities, Community safety, education, Fire, Warnings}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-9-5}, issn = {651}, author = {J Whittaker and Katharine Haynes and Wilkinson, Carrie and Matalena Tofa and Tasmin Dilworth and Jessica Collins and Lillian Tait and Stephanie Samson} } @article {bnh-8003, title = {Cultural burning and public sector practice in the Australian Capital Territory}, journal = {Australian Geographer}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, abstract = {

Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} fire management practices captured global attention during the Australian 2019{\textendash}20 {\textquoteleft}Black Summer{\textquoteright}, as a possible method to mitigate bushfire risk; however, these {\textquoteleft}cultural burns{\textquoteright} are no straightforward matter for public sector practice. As the slow, retrospective work to address historical and contemporary discrimination is imperfectly underway, we explore a cultural burning program supported by a government agency in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). In this paper, two co-authors share their experiences helping create a cultural burning program as Aboriginal people but not as Traditional Custodians. We document the steps taken to build support, create opportunities and engage Ngunnawal and Ngambri Traditional Custodians, and identify early positive results and challenging matters being generated. We demonstrate that rather than being restricted by public sector bureaucracy, the ACT cultural burning program has leveraged policy and entwined itself around the machinery of government in a way that accesses resources, creates opportunities and is slowly but surely changing public sector practice. Nonetheless, this is a journey of iteratively learning. It remains that more substantive measures are needed to recognise Traditional Custodianship if the current cultural burning program is to become a more substantial expression of Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} cultural land management.

}, keywords = {Aboriginal fire management, Bushfire, cool burns, cultural burning, natural resource management, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00049182.2021.1917133}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00049182.2021.1917133?journalCode=cage20}, author = {Dean Freeman and Bhiamie Williamson and Jessica Weir} } @article {bnh-7795, title = {Experiments on the influence of spot fire and topography interaction on fire rate of spread}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {16}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, abstract = {

Spotting is thought to increase wildfire rate of spread (ROS) and in some cases become the main mechanism for spread. The role of spotting in wildfire spread is controlled by many factors including fire intensity, number of and distance between spot fires, weather, fuel characteristics and topography. Through a set of 30 laboratory fire experiments on a 3 m x 4 m fuel bed, subject to air flow, we explored the influence of manually ignited spot fires (0, 1 or 2), the presence or absence of a model hill and their interaction on combined fire ROS (i.e. ROS incorporating main fire and merged spot fires). During experiments conducted on a flat fuel bed, spot fires (whether 1 or 2) had only a small influence on combined ROS. Slowest combined ROS was recorded when a hill was present and no spot fires were ignited, because the fires crept very slowly downslope and downwind of the hill. This was up to, depending on measurement interval, 5 times slower than ROS in the flat fuel bed experiments. However, ignition of 1 or 2 spot fires (with hill present) greatly increased combined ROS to similar levels as those recorded in the flat fuel bed experiments (depending on spread interval). The effect was strongest on the head fire, where spot fires merged directly with the main fire, but significant increases in off-centre ROS were also detected. Our findings suggest that under certain topographic conditions, spot fires can allow a fire to overcome the low spread potential of downslopes. Current models may underestimate wildfire ROS and fire arrival time in hilly terrain if the influence of spot fires on ROS is not incorporated into predictions.

}, keywords = {air flow, analysis of variance, Bushfire, combustion, fire research, fire suppression technology, fuels, rotors}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245132}, url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0245132}, author = {Michael Storey and Owen Price and M. Almeida and Carlos Ribeiro and Ross Bradstock and Jason J. Sharples} } @article {bnh-7947, title = {Learning to learn from bushfire: Perspectives from Victorian emergency management practitioners}, journal = {Australian Journal of Public Administration}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, abstract = {

The Black Summer Fires of 2019/2020 remind us not only that Australia is arguably the most bushfire prone area in the world but also that we have much to learn in terms of how we learn from such events. Bushfires interact with emergency management systems in a manner that is complex and unpredictable which all too often results in damages and losses, so significant that governments establish public inquiries to forensically examine what happened and why afterwards. Too often, such processes have resulted in emergency management practitioners (EMP) being blamed, not to mention scapegoated and even vilified for damages and losses from major bushfire events. With recent bushfire events (as well as other crises surrounding Covid-19) highlighting the excruciating demands placed on EMP and an escalating scepticism about whether public inquiries improve preparation for future bushfires, this paper explores the question: what can we learn about public inquiries based on the experiences of EMP?

}, keywords = {Bushfire, emergency management practitioners, Learning, public review processes, royal commission}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8500.12476}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8500.12476}, author = {Graham Dwyer} } @article {bnh-7810, title = {North Australian bushfire and natural hazard training - final project report}, number = {644}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report provides an overview, including the north Australian bushfire and natural hazard ({\textquoteleft}BNH{\textquoteright}) context and the social background for the North Australian Bushfire and Natural Hazard Training project.

The project has proceeded slowly (five years) and has changed dramatically as a result of engaging in Participatory Action Research ({\textquoteleft}PAR{\textquoteright}). This approach to researching the training needs of residents of remote north Australian communities encouraged these residents to participate in the framing of the enquiry as well as the generation of answers and training materials.

Several desktop reviews were undertaken during the project. These examined the existing BNH training offerings as well as the opportunities that existed at the time for Indigenous community members to obtain leadership training. The reviews found that where training existed it largely omitted Indigenous perspectives, particularly in terms of strategic overviews and planning. For leadership training, it was found that where remote communities were able to access training for BNH it did not focus on leadership and that which focused on leadership did not include BNH management.

In response to the views of project participants and the reviews, the project developed a set of training units that, taken together, drew together the essential elements of Indigenous and non-Indigenous BNH training in a Vocational Education and Training ({\textquoteleft}VET{\textquoteright}) style program. The program does however modify the {\textquoteleft}standard{\textquoteright} VET approach through the provision of flexible temporal arrangements for training and assessing. This need was identified as the project recognized the requirement to train {\textquoteleft}on Country [1]{\textquoteright} and to use local knowledge-holders in the preparations for and delivery of the training.

Nine formal {\textquoteleft}engagements{\textquoteright} were held over the life of the project, including workshops and three training pilots. In each pilot, different components of the ten training units were presented and refined. A detailed and culturally appropriate evaluation was undertaken of each pilot and the feedback was incorporated into the next {\textquoteleft}round{\textquoteright} of pilot training.

10 training units have been developed by the project. Some of these are entirely new while others are adaptations of existing training, albeit adapted sufficient to warrant a new unit descriptor.

The 10 units have not yet been subject to National Accreditation, but are designed to map onto the Standards for VET Accredited Courses as set out by the Australian Skills Quality Authority. Each unit has been framed in terms of {\textquoteleft}Elements and Performance Criteria{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Evidence Guide{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Requiired Skills and Knowledge{\textquoteright} and a {\textquoteleft}Range Statement{\textquoteright}.


[1] The capitalised term {\textquoteleft}Country{\textquoteright} is used throughout to indicate the entity which extends well beyond the English term for {\textquoteleft}nation{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}landscape{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}rural{\textquoteright}. For the Indigenous people who participated in this project {\textquoteleft}Country{\textquoteright} refers an entity which transcends physical, moral, spiritual and metaphysical realms and of which they are an integral part. Country is at all times the ground on which one stands but also inside a person (cf. Holmes \& Janpajimpa 2013: 18). It is something one can be taken off, but can never be removed from within.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, natural hazard, north australia, training}, issn = {644}, author = {Sutton, S} } @mastersthesis {bnh-8095, title = {Spatial planning to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire hazards can pose significant risks at bushfire-prone urban-rural interfaces and peri-urban areas, highlighting the need to manage bushfire risk in relation to settlements{\textquoteright} planning and governance. Settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires can be purposively facilitated by the development and application of bushfire risk management knowledge. Spatial planning has the potential to support learning about and acting upon changing conditions and new bushfire information to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires. However, the translation of new bushfire knowledge into meaningful spatial planning practices has been limited and spatial planning systems often struggle to integrate bushfire risk management. Thus, this research aims to contribute to understandings of spatial planning ability to improve its practices by identifying, reframing, and putting into action new considerations about bushfire risk management to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires.

This research used an inductive qualitative research approach employing two case studies: the spatial planning systems of Chile and Victoria (Australia). Qualitative data was collected from documentation, archival records, and semi-structured interviews. The data was analysed using time-series analysis, qualitative content analysis, and cross-case synthesis techniques. The research was divided into four stages, two stages correspond to the individual case study analysis and the remaining two to cross-case synthesis and discussion.

The research concludes that the Chilean and Victorian spatial planning systems are still constrained in their promotion of settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfires due to internal and external complexities that frame and limit their ability for bushfire risk management. In Chile, there have been several mostly unsuccessful attempts to integrate bushfire considerations into the spatial planning system, thus the current system only outlines spatial planning mechanisms for bushfire risk management generically and inapplicably. In Victoria, the spatial planning system has partially and progressively improved its ways for dealing with bushfires, however, the current system still considers bushfire risk management partially and sometimes ambiguously. In practice, this implies that both spatial planning systems are sometimes allowing and even promoting settlements patterns that perpetuate bushfire risks.

Based on a cross-case synthesis, the research concludes that spatial planning instruments that comprehensively address bushfires are necessary, suggesting an integrated approach that undertakes bushfire risk management at the strategic, tactical, and operational levels of planning mechanisms and processes. This approach establishes the instruments{\textquoteright} role in bushfire risk management and other factors that provide directions for improving their ability to promote settlements{\textquoteright} resilience to bushfire. Furthermore, the research also concludes that reflexive processes are not always conducive to the development and improvement of spatial planning systems for bushfire risk management, due to the variance of willingness, understanding, and capacity issues within the system and in the wider context. Accordingly, thesis propositions about the barriers and facilitators that influence spatial planning progressing from the identification, to the reframing and implementation of change about bushfire risk management were suggested.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, disaster risk managemet, Disaster risk reduction, resilience, spatial planning, urban planning, Wildfire}, url = {https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/267371}, author = {Constanza Gonzalez-Mathiesen} } @article {bnh-8165, title = {Using pre- and post-fire LiDAR to assess the severity of the 2019 Tasmanian bushfires}, number = {698}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

In January 2019, over 64,000 ha of bushland burned in the Riveaux Road fire in Tasmania{\textquoteright}s southern forests. Most of area burned occurred in tall wet eucalypt forest. These forests are considered to be highly flammable in dry conditions, but fires are infrequent due to the generally cool, wet climate in which they grow. As a result, limited data exists on the behaviour and effects of wildfire in these forests. Prior to these fires, extensive areas of these southern forests have been studied in-depth. In 2014, a large area of the forests that burned were mapped with aerial LiDAR, a remote-sensing technology that can characterise three-dimensional forest structure. Further, in 2016, detailed field-based measurements of fuel load, structure, and hazard were taken at 12 permanent plots which subsequently burned in 2019. Hence, the 2019 fires in Tasmania represent a globally-rare opportunity to characterise the severity of a large wildfire using pre-fire and post-fire data. In October 2019, the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE) in Tasmania, along with five other BNHCRC end-users and the University of Tasmania, launched a project to use remote-sensing and field-based data to create a detailed case study of the 2019 Riveaux Rd. Fire, and to untangle the drivers of fire severity in tall wet eucalypt forests.\  To do this we (i) remeasured plots to assess tree mortality and changes in fuel loads post fire; (ii) acquired LiDAR data from a transect across a burned buttongrass-forest boundary on the Weld River enabling comparison with pre-fire LiDAR data; (iii) established baseline postfire LiDAR buttongrass-forest boundary transect on the Huon River at Blakes Opening.\  Here we describe the data sets and report some preliminary analyses.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, fire severity, Lidar, post-fire, pre-fire, Tasmania}, issn = {698}, author = {Furlaud, James M. and Arko Lucieer and Scott Foyster and Anna Matala and David Bowman} } @article {bnh-7472, title = {Causes and consequences of Eastern Australia{\textquoteright}s 2019{\textendash}20 season of mega-fires: A broader perspective}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {26}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, pages = {pp. 3756-3758}, abstract = {

Climates{\textemdash}especially seasonal and long-term droughts{\textemdash}and fuel loads combine to determine risks of wildfires across much of Australia. Here we illustrate how long-term accumulations of fuel combined with a serious drought to drive the behaviour and extent of recent fires in South-eastern Australia.

This article is a commentary on Nolan et al. 26,\ 1039{\textendash}1041. See also the response to this letter by Bradstock et al. 26,\ e8{\textendash}e9.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, climate, Fire behaviour}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15125}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.15125}, author = {Adams, Mark A. and Majid Shadmanroodposhti and Mathias Neumann} } @article {bnh-7341, title = {A Culture of Burning: Social-Ecological Memory, Social Learning and Adaptation in Australian Volunteer Fire Brigades}, journal = {Society and Natural Resources}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, abstract = {

While Australian government agencies are increasingly emphasizing the need to {\textquotedblleft}build community resilience{\textquotedblright} to bushfires, communities in many rural landscapes have a strong history of actively managing fire risk, in particular through involvement in volunteer fire brigades. This paper explores social-ecological memory, social learning, and adaptation in volunteer Country Fire Authority brigades in western Victoria, specifically in the context of planned burning of strategic roadside fire breaks. It examines the relationships between local knowledge, narratives and practices of burning and how these shape volunteer identities, embodying {\textquotedblleft}shared responsibility{\textquotedblright}. Findings show that participation in roadside burning is critical for supporting social learning and ongoing community engagement in fire management. However, changing land uses, social demographics and regulatory processes are negatively impacting local volunteer capacities. While brigades have responded by re-organizing their practices, questions remain as to what extent this constitutes adaptation or transformation connecting to broader landscape-level risk management.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Bushfire, community-based fire management, planned burning, resilience, volunteering}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2020.1819494}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08941920.2020.1819494}, author = {Sarah Dickson-Hoyle and Ruth Beilin and Karen Reid} } @inbook {bnh-6647, title = {Dimensions of Risk Justice and Resilience: Mapping Urban Planning{\textquoteright}s Role Between Individual Versus Collective Rights}, booktitle = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {93-115}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1st}, chapter = {5}, address = {Singapore}, abstract = {

This chapter applies a justice framework to the complex of dilemmas between individual rights and the public good. It uses the case of the Wye River and Separation Creek Christmas Day 2015 bushfire in Victoria, Australia. Analysis of this event reveals the complex interactions of assumed, asserted and contested rights that play out before, during and after major destructive bushfire events, and their justice implications. The chapter suggests that there is a need to acknowledge and treat risks as complex manifestations of ongoing decisions over time; that existing emphases on individual property rights often erode the public good; that there is a need to set minimum standards in settlements; and that there is need to actively integrate individual and collective action to achieve risk justice.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Human settlements, Justice, Public good, risk, urban planning, Wildfire}, isbn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_5}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Janet Stanley} } @article {bnh-7240, title = {Effects of the January 2020 bushfires on estuarine systems of Kangaroo Island: post event field data collection}, number = {603}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 2020 summer bushfires on Kangaroo Island were the largest in the Island{\textquoteright}s recorded history, with over 200,000 hectares and more than 40 \% of the island burnt (DEW, 2020). The impacts of these bushfires will not be confined to the terrestrial landscape and are likely to have substantial detrimental impacts on the island{\textquoteright}s aquatic systems, particularly after rainfall.

Post-fire exposed soils are highly erodible, and therefore intense precipitation events or seasonal rainfall can result in the runoff of nutrients and ash enriched sediments, debris and other products of combustion into waterways. These runoff events, allied to heavy sedimentation, can lead to deteriorating water quality, potentially triggering eutrophication, low oxygen events, and compromise aquatic fauna. In addition, contaminants, including trace elements and products of combustion such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) can also enter waterways (Olivella et al 2006, Shakesby and Doerr, 2006, Smith et al 2011, Sequeira et al 2020).

One area of concern in Kangaroo Island are the estuarine systems downstream or adjacent to burnt areas. Despite the ecological importance of estuarine environments and the multiple ecosystem functions they provide (including nursery grounds for juvenile fish), the impacts of bushfires in estuaries are yet to be investigated. Furthermore, because estuarine systems in Kangaroo island are not permanently open to the sea, the impacts of accumulated soot, ash and sediment channelled into estuaries could be exacerbated, and have the potential to disrupt complex ecological and biogeochemical cycles, increase contaminant loadings and result in pervasive effects for local fish communities. Ultimately, there are substantial knowledge gaps in our understanding of water quality impacts and mobilisation of heavy metals and isotopes in the aftermath of bushfires in estuaries, and these add to the lack of understanding of the ecology and geochemistry of estuaries in South Australia.

In this context, the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, via the their quick response funding, provided financial support for travel-related expenses to undertake surveys on Kangaroo Island in estuaries within areas directly affected by this unprecedented bushfire season, and control sites outside these areas. These sampling events are part of broader research where in the long term, we aim to evaluate the impacts of bushfires on estuarine water quality and on estuarine fish, as well as trace the mobilisation and fluxes of contaminants released by bushfires into estuarine systems.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, data collection, estuarine system, kangaroo island}, issn = {603}, author = {Patrick Reis-Santos and Bronwyn Gillanders} } @article {bnh-6576, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation}, number = {535}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report is the third in a series produced for the BNHCRC-funded project Integrating Urban Planning and Natural Hazard Mitigation. The first report constituted a theoretical exploration of integration between urban planning and emergency management supported by an overarching understanding of national and state contexts for these two fields of inquiry and practice, with a focus on the states of Victoria and South Australia. This report generated a preliminary framework used to subsequently interrogate a series of urbanplanning-related recommendations from royal commissions of inquiry and reviews targeting natural-hazard-related events in the past ten years, summarised in the second report.

Building on the preliminary framework of integration previously developed, this current report presents the development of an analytical framework for assessing integration between urban planning and emergency management arrangements and practice and its application in a real case in the state of Victoria. Findings presented in this report serves as the basis for the analysis of the South Australian case of integration in a moment when its planning system is under considerate reforms. A separate report containing findings from this subsequent analysis is to be submitted next.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, mitigation, Natural hazards, Risk assessment, urban planning}, issn = {535}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7390, title = {Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts {\textendash} final project report}, number = {616}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fuel condition (e.g. moisture content, horizontal and vertical continuity and the quantity or load) affect flammability and therefore is a key determinant of the ease of ignition and the spread rate of a fire. Many research institutions and management services are investing an important amount of resources on field-based fuel condition monitoring to understand its dynamics and support operational fire management activities. However, field sampling is expensive and time-consuming, sometimes subjective and implies also a delay time until the data are processed and made available. The Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC project {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazards and Impacts{\textquoteright} used cutting-edge technology to produce near-real-time spatial information on fuel condition, fire hazard and impact to support a wide range of fire risk management and response activities such as hazard reduction burning and pre-positioning firefighting resources and, in the longer term, the new Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) given it considers fuel condition as ne of the key factors required to determine fire danger and support other decision -making.

The first phase of this project (2014-2017) involved the parallel investigation of several promising data sources and methods that can be categorised as either {\textquoteleft}in-field{\textquoteright} (grassland curing on-ground sensors and ground-based LiDAR laser scanning for fuel structure characterisation) or {\textquoteleft}national-scale{\textquoteright} (the Australian Flammability Monitoring System-AFMS, and the High-resolution Fire Risk and Impact (HiFRI) model-data fusion framework) methods. Generally, information derived from the national-scale methods appeared to represent enough accuracy and better return on investment and generated greater interest among end-users.

Consequently, over 2017-2020, this research project focused on ensuring the continuity of the AFMS but further developing the algorithms to estimate fuel moisture content (FMC), and through this, its acceptance and adoption. The AFMS provides information on FMC and flammability across Australia at 500m resolution every four days. It also displays information on soil moisture content near the surface (0-10 cm) and shallow soils (10-35 cm) as research outcomes from the project {\textquotedblleft}Improving land dryness measures and forecast{\textquotedblright}. Our research project also improved estimates of litter FMC by incorporating the effect of soil moisture content in existing physics-based models, developed a methodology to map fuel loads using satellite data and an objective and observation-based approach to assess fire danger that considers spatial data on the occurrence of actual fires as well as on fire factors that are already routinely produced every day for Australia.

The improved litter FMC, fuel load and fire danger retrieval algorithms and products derived from this project are not yet included in the AFMS nor generated at near real-time and across Australia. Further research and development is needed to make that step and providing landscape scale, cost-effective way to comprehensively monitor fuel condition and fire danger at such a broad scale. Consequently, future research should focus on developing a multi-sensor system that will display daily information on fire danger and fuel condition from whatever satellite sensor has collected an image over Australia, including high-resolution satellite imagery. This will improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the information we currently provide at the AFMS that will allow the identification of, for example, local fuel moisture gradients in the landscape that are currently not identifiable using the 500m pixel resolution of the product we currently serve in the AFMS.

The use of high-resolution satellite imagery will provide an unprecedented level of detail and accuracy when estimating fuel condition, bringing the system closer to use in operations. However, the data volumes and large compute resources required to store and generate these high-resolution products becomes a challenge. Consequently, future research should also focus on developing an alternative methodology for computing fuel condition that can provide up to date estimations by reducing the required storage and computing resources using state-of-the-art artificial intelligence algorithms.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, hazard, impacts, mapping}, issn = {616}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-6746, title = {Navigating Uncertainty: community experiences of bushfire}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {31}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, pages = {54-59}, abstract = {

This research examined how people directly affected by a catastrophic event respond to that event, individually and as a community. It shifts from concepts of {\textquoteleft}community-led{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}recovery{\textquoteright} after an event to a more pragmatic view of community disaster recovery. A catastrophic bushfire near Forcett, in Tasmania{\textquoteright}s south-east in 2013 is used to examine people{\textquoteright}s dependence on community and place to help then navigate the event. A constructivist grounded theory approach was used to identify a model of {\textquoteleft}Navigating Uncertainty{\textquoteright}. This covers three phases of {\textquoteleft}Losing the familiar{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Restoring the familiar{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Living with change{\textquoteright}. These phases illustrate how people experience the perilous situation where lives were threatened and homes, communities and livelihoods damaged or destroyed. In such situations, people{\textquoteright}s decision-making and action are often underpinned by individual and collective values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, catastrophic events, community, recovery}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2019-navigating-uncertainty-community-experiences-of-bushfire/}, author = {Fiona Jennings} } @article {bnh-6902, title = {Non-Additive Effects of Forest Litter on Flammability}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {3}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, abstract = {

Forest litter is a fuel component that is important for the propagation of fire. Data describing fuel load, structure and fuel condition were gathered for two sites of Sydney Coastal Dry Sclerophyll Forest, a common vegetation type in the Sydney Basin, Australia. Surface litter from the sites was sorted into its constituent components and used to establish which component or mixture of components were the most flammable using several metrics. A general blending model was used to estimate the effect the different mixtures had on the response of the flammability metrics and identify non-additive effects. Optimisation methods were applied to the models to determine the mixture compositions that were the most or least flammable. Differences in the flammability of the two sites were significant and were driven by\ Allocasuarina littoralis. The presence of\ A. littoralis\ in litter mixtures caused non-additive effects, increasing the rate of flame spread and flame height non-linearly. We discuss how land managers could use these models as a tool to assist in prioritising areas for hazard reduction burns and how the methodology can be extended to other fuel conditions or forest types.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, general blending model, land management, non-additive effect, prescribed burn, simplex centroid design}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3020012}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/3/2/12}, author = {Angela Gormley and Bell, Tina and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-6642, title = {A report on WRF software development (preliminary)}, number = {539}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfire is one of the major natural hazards Australia encounters every year because of its dry weather and widespread bushlands. During the dry season, occurrence of simultaneous bushfires at different locations is quite common. The fire management authorities face challenges on deployment of resources (human and other logistics) properly to mitigate multiple bushfires. To prioritize, they depend on the modelling of real-time behaviours of the fire under consideration. Fire rate of spread (RoS) is one of the most important parameters that the authority wants to determine before proceeding to resource allocation. RoS during forest fire can be slowed by reduced sub-canopy wind. In operational models, it is accounted by a parameter, wind reduction factor (WRF). Current values used as WRF are not based on science. In this work, we are presenting a software (preliminary version) that can calculate WRF scientifically. We apply a dynamic WRF obtained from a mathematical model in an operation model, Spark. This will lead to better prediction of RoS, once fully implemented.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, fire management, model, Rate of spread, software development}, issn = {539}, author = {Mahmood Rashid and James Hilton and Nazmul Khan and Duncan Sutherland and Khalid Moinuddin} } @inbook {bnh-7841, title = {Sensing bushfire: Exploring shifting perspectives as hazard moves through the landscape}, booktitle = {Weather: Spaces, Mobilities and Affects}, year = {2020}, publisher = {Routledge}, organization = {Routledge}, chapter = {12}, abstract = {

Bushfires are an enduring part of the Australian landscape. While much research has explored community preparations and responses to disasters, there is little understanding of sensory engagements with hazards. In this chapter, we explore interviews with residents who had recently experienced a bushfire in Tathra, a small seaside town in south-eastern Australia. These interviews contain rich details of the sounds of the wind and fire and the smell of smoke inter alia that constitute embodied and sensory engagements with the bushfire. We focus on these bodily experiences to rethink the mobilities of people, boundaries and hazard {\textquoteleft}events{\textquoteright}. We suggest that a focus on sensory experiences of hazards provides a fuller understanding of more-than-human (im)mobilities and the continual becoming of place.

}, keywords = {affects, Bushfire, mobilities, sensing, space, weather}, issn = {9780367406394}, url = {https://www.routledge.com/Weather-Spaces-Mobilities-and-Affects/Barry-Borovnik-Edensor/p/book/9780367406394}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa and Joshua McLaren} } @inbook {bnh-6644, title = {The Theory/Practice of Disaster Justice: Learning from Indigenous Peoples{\textquoteright} Fire Management}, booktitle = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {299-317}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1st}, chapter = {16}, address = {Singapore}, abstract = {

Globally, Indigenous peoples have fire management practices which are not necessarily supported by the centralised land management and natural hazard institutions of nation states. This is changing in Australia with the proliferation of engagements between government authorities and Aboriginal fire management leaders. These engagements raise a series of justice issues that critique the separation of environmental and socio-political\ matters, and the discriminatory positioning of Indigenous peoples and their interests as local. In this chapter, we share the experiences of Aboriginal people that have been shared with us in three places: Central Arnhem Land, the Western Desert and the Australian Capital Territory. The theory/practice of Disaster Justice\ offers new opportunities to ensure these socio-natural\ engagements are {\textquoteleft}just{\textquoteright}, which requires careful attention to whose values matter, whose knowledge is important and whose political-legal rights and entities are recognised and resourced.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Collective continuance, Decolonial, Environmental justice, First Nations, Wildfire}, isbn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_16}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_16}, author = {Jessica Weir and Sutton, S and Gareth Catt} } @article {bnh-7164, title = {Urban planning capabilities for bushfire: treatment categories and scenario testing}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, pages = {32-40}, abstract = {

The challenges facing settlements relating to bushfire require integrated approaches that manage risks across a wide range of factors. This paper sets out a framework demonstrating how urban planning, when coupled with appropriate decision support and future scenario testing, can reduce risks relating to bushfire while considering future growth. Examples of how planning can modify aspects of risk in association with scenario testing are included. Five main categories of risk reduction treatments are shown. The paper contributes to risk reduction by providing practical mechanisms for risk avoidance and treatment via urban and land-use planning systems combined with forward scenario testing to guide existing settlements and future growth.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, capabilities, scenario testing, treatment, urban planning}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-july-2020-urban-planning-capabilities-for-bushfire-treatment-categories-and-scenario-testing/}, author = {Alan March and Graeme Riddell and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Dovers, Steve and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-6723, title = {Why don{\textquoteright}t bushfire warnings work as intended? Responses to official warnings during bushfires in New South Wales, Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {45}, year = {2020}, abstract = {

Australian fire services provide two broad types of warning to people in bushfire (or wildfire) risk areas. Fire Danger Ratings communicate the possible consequences of a bushfire due to its rate of spread, intensity and difficulty of suppression. Warnings are also issued to alert people to impending bushfires and advise them how to respond. This paper examines how people threatened and affected by bushfires in New South Wales, Australia, in 2017 understood, interpreted and acted upon warning messages they received. The research involved 113 semi-structured interviews and an online survey of 549 households. Results indicate that while most people found warnings easy to understand and useful, many did not respond in ways intended by fire services. Many waited until they were threatened before they evacuated, while others stayed to defend houses and property, assist or rescue other people, and protect pets and animals. Notably, the research highlights the tendency for people to seek confirmation of the bushfire threat before taking protective action, most commonly to avoid unnecessary evacuation and its associated costs. Furthermore, the research identifies three key messages in bushfire warnings that are not personally meaningful for many people because they do not align with how they are likely to respond to a bushfire. These include: (1) people should leave bushfire risk areas on days of Catastrophic fire danger, before there is a fire; (2) houses are not defendable under Catastrophic conditions; and (3) people should {\textquoteleft}leave early{\textquoteright}. The paper offers suggestions on how fire authorities can provide better information to help people to make more effective decisions by acknowledging and working within the context in which warnings are understood, interpreted and acted upon.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, defence, Evacuation, information, preparation, Warnings, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101476}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919304625?dgcid=author}, author = {J Whittaker and Mel Taylor and Christopher Bearman} } @article {bnh-6246, title = {Working outside {\textquoteleft}the rules{\textquoteright}: Opportunities and challenges of community participation in risk reduction}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {44}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

Research has shown that greater community action is needed for effective risk reduction. Community participation in risk reduction ranges from action that is initiated and led by members of the public, independently of government assistance, to those that are initiated and facilitated by government and non-government organisations. Natural hazards research has demonstrated that despite awareness of and a desire to reduce risk, many community members lack the physical, psychological or financial capacity to take action. This is particularly the case for bushfires, where preparations can be costly and physically demanding. In response to this, Fire and Rescue New South Wales (FRNSW) established the Community Fire Unit (CFU) program. CFUs are groups of residents who are provided with education, training and equipment to enable them to reduce risks around their homes through enhanced preparation and some bushfire defence. This paper examines the experiences and views of CFU members after bushfires in the Blue Mountains, NSW in October 2013. The majority of respondents believed that their participation in the CFU program reduced bushfire risk and led to a greater sense of community and social capital in their local area. However, the research revealed challenges associated with participating within the formal, top-down structures of a professional fire brigade. Respondents therefore considered that greater flexibility was needed with simultaneously greater support and autonomy from FRNSW. The paper explores the experiences, challenges and opportunities presented by a top-down community based risk reduction program and considers the implications for community participation in risk reduction more generally.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Community participation, Disaster risk reduction, hazard, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101396}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919304832?dgcid=author}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Deanne Bird and J Whittaker} } @article {bnh-6667, title = {Applying the principles of adaptive governance to bushfire management: a case study from the South West of Australia}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Planning and Management}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, pages = {1-26}, abstract = {

Bushfires are a global climate change challenge and a critical disaster issue for Australia. Adaptive governance has emerged as a model to address socio-ecological issues such as disasters. This paper discusses four principles of adaptive governance: polycentric institutions, collaboration, social learning, and reflexivity and examines how these are reflected in the policy and practice of bushfire management in the South West of Australia. Findings demonstrate that current disaster policy discourse, which influences bushfire management, increasingly advocates for principles associated with adaptive governance. However, a case study on the Shire of Augusta-Margaret River found that the extent to which these principles translate into bushfire management practice is largely influenced by interpretive worldview policy frames. The paper suggests that governance for bushfire management could become more adaptive in its approach by incorporating more collaborative management activities, deliberative policy processes and reflexive practice.

}, keywords = {adaptive governance, Bushfire, collaboration, disaster, reflexivity}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2019.1648243}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09640568.2019.1648243}, author = {Simone Ruane} } @article {bnh-5830, title = {Determining threshold conditions for extreme bushfire behaviour annual report 2018-2019}, number = {508}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Crown fires in forest ecosystems can pose a major threat to life and property due to their high intensities and rapid rates of spread. However, research into the prediction of crown fire dynamics in the Eucalyptus forests of Australia is limited. Previous studies have focused on coarse temporal scales, utilised low resolution weather based predictors, and often disregard the spatial nature of crown fires. Our study aimed to use observations from large wildfires in eucalypt forests to develop an empirical model to predict the likelihood of crown fire events using environmental predictors at an hourly scale. Our study was conducted in south-eastern Australia using data from fifteen large wildfires that occurred between 2009 and 2015. Fire severity maps were created for each fire at a 30\ m resolution using Landsat imagery from which we calculated the proportion of 30 m pixels experiencing crown fire within a 150 x 150 m window (2.25 ha). Predictor variables were chosen to represent the four key environmental drivers of fire behaviour, namely fuel moisture (i.e. live and dead fuel), fuel load and structure (i.e. surface, elevated, and bark fuels, and tree height), fire weather (i.e. vapour-pressure deficit, wind speed, relative wind direction) and topography (i.e. slope and ruggedness). Random Forests were used to model the effect of environmental drivers on the proportion of crown fire. Fuel moisture content variables were the best predictors of probability of crown consumption. Topographic variables and fire weather had only an intermediate influence and fuel load and structure had the lowest influence. Crown fire runs largely occurred when thresholds in vapour-pressure deficit (\<4\ kPa) and dead fuel moisture content (\<7\%) were exceeded. Predictions from the model showed a high degree of agreement with the raw fire severity maps. The proposed models have the potential to provide guidance on the likelihood of crown fire during fire events.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, extreme bushfires, fire behaviour., weather conditions}, issn = {508}, author = {Alex Filkov and Thomas Duff and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-5648, title = {Developing and testing models of the drivers of anthropogenic and lightning-caused wildfire ignitions in south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Management}, volume = {235}, year = {2019}, month = {01/2019}, chapter = {34-41}, abstract = {

Considerable investments are made in managing fire risk to human assets, including a growing use of fire behaviour simulation tools to allocate expenditure. Understanding fire risk requires estimation of the likelihood of ignition, spread of the fire and impact on assets. The ability to estimate and predict risk requires both the development of ignition likelihood models and the evaluation of these models in novel environments. We developed models for natural and anthropogenic ignitions in the south-eastern Australian state of Victoria incorporating variables relating to fire weather, terrain and the built environment. Fire weather conditions had a consistently positive effect on the likelihood of ignition, although they contributed much more to lightning (57\%) and power transmission (55\%) ignitions than the 7 other modelled causes (8{\textendash}32\%). The built environment played an important role in driving anthropogenic ignitions. Housing density was the most important variable in most models and proximity to roads had a consistently positive effect. In contrast, the best model for lightning ignitions included a positive relationship with primary productivity, as represented by annual rainfall. These patterns are broadly consistent with previous ignition modelling studies. The models developed for Victoria were tested in the neighbouring fire prone states of South Australia and Tasmania. The anthropogenic ignition model performed well in South Australia (AUC = 0.969) and Tasmania (AUC = 0.848), whereas the natural ignition model only performed well in South Australia (AUC = 0.972; Tasmania AUC = 0.612). Model performance may have been impaired by much lower lightning ignition rates in South Australia and Tasmania than in Victoria. This study shows that the spatial likelihood of ignition can be reliably predicted based on readily available meteorological and biophysical data. Furthermore, the strong performance of anthropogenic and natural ignition models in novel environments suggests there are some universal drivers of ignition likelihood across south-eastern Australia.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, ignition, Risk modelling, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.01.055}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479719300568}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Rebecca Gibson and Brett Cirulis and Ross Bradstock and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-5929, title = {Economics of natural hazards annual report 2018-2019}, number = {512}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Our project aims to provide information on the economic, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards (tangible and intangible), in order to help hazard managers in their decision making. We investigate the impacts of hazard mitigation on intangible (non-market) values, to shed light on the real (total) costs and benefits of natural hazards.

Our main focus is on developing tools and materials that will provide natural hazards managers with information on the value of mitigation and how intangible (non-market) values affect the costs and benefits of mitigation activities.
Our project will have 4 key outcomes:

  1. Provide an online platform for the intangible values database (called the Value Tool for Natural Hazards). The tool will be updated and maintained beyond the project so that managers can easily integrate intangible values in their analyses.
  2. Fill major knowledge gaps identified in the literature on intangible values that are affected by the management of natural hazards and improve the value tool with this new knowledge.
  3. Develop a Quick Economic Analysis Tool for the evaluation of the (tangible and intangible) costs and benefits of mitigation options that enables managers to conduct economic analyses in weeks rather than months.
  4. Create a Free Online Course on the application of economics to the assessment of natural hazard management options.

This year, we have progressed in the 4 outcomes outlined above:

  1. A website has been created for the Value Tool. Both the database and the guidelines can now be downloaded from http://valuetoolnaturalhazards.com. As per the agreement between UWA and BNHCRC, the tool will be freely accessible to end-users and external users. The website also includes the relevant disclaimer information and instructions that users of the tool must agree to comply with.
  2. A survey instrument has been designed and road-tested in a focus group for the original non-market valuation study. The next step in this process will be to test the survey in the Shire of York (WA), where we will estimate non-market values associated with cultural heritage and mental health.
  3. The draft (Beta) version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) has been completed. QEAT is currently being improved to include an easy-to-use sensitivity analysis, to be able to perform the analysis of several management options concurrently and to include a summary dashboard where all results are summarised in an easy-to-read manner. These additions are key aspects that our end-users have mentioned in the past as important to include in a tool such as this one. The Tool now needs to be validated with case studies.
  4. Equipment for creating the online videos is being purchased (e.g. green screen for background, microphone and tripod for computer). Filming of the videos will commence in July 2019.

The utilisation outputs from our project this year involved the development and distribution of tools that help natural hazard managers integration intangible (non-market) values in their decision making. The Value Tool for Natural Hazards and the accompanying guidelines are now available online and can be easily downloaded by end-users of the BNHCRC or other organisations. The Beta version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) is in the process of being improved to include key aspects that were highlighted by end-users as important to include in a tool as this one.

This year there were 4 publications from the project: 3 peer-reviewed and one non-peer reviewed (see Project Publications 2018-2019 section below).

}, keywords = {Bushfire, cost-effective, cyclone, earthquake, economics, Emergency management, Flood, Natural hazards, risk management}, issn = {512}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-6577, title = {Integrating bushfire risk reduction and statutory mechanisms in South Australia}, number = {536}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bushfires pose significant threats to life and property in many parts of Australia. The frequency and intensity of bushfires are increasing over time in association with worsening weather conditions that support extreme fires (Dowdy, 2018) and ongoing settlement growth (Allen, 2018). High bushfire risks generally occur when fires interact with human settlements, where housing and other structures are near flammable vegetation and associated impacts such as ember attack.

This report is an output of the wider project {\textquotedblleft}Integrating Urban Planning with Disaster Risk Reduction{\textquotedblright} funded by the Bushfire Natural Hazard Cooperative Research Centre. It is part of a critical review of the integration of emergency management and urban planning in South Australia focusing on the detail of bushfire treatment mechanisms proposed in the State Planning Reform Document Draft Planning and Design Code {\textendash} Phase 2 Rural Areas (DPTI, 2019b) released in October 2019 by the Department of Transport, Planning and Infrastructure, and State Planning Commission. In parallel, the review also considered other relevant regulations and codes such as AS 3959-2018 Building in Bushfire Prone Areas (Standards Australia - Committee FP-020, 2019) and Ministerial Building Standard MBS008 Designated Bushfire Prone Areas {\textendash} Draft October 2019 (DPTI, 2019a). The present report provides a basis for later work in subsequent stages that develops new approaches and improvements in collaboration with practitioners.

The review begins by setting out the conceptual and theoretical basis of integration and moves to presenting a general description of bushfires and the main factors that contribute to bushfire risks in the built environment. Then, it sets out the main elements of investigation relating to the integration of bushfire risk reduction in the built environment, summarising the adopted research approach and the role of this report in the wider research project. Then the report moves to critically analysing the outcomes of applying these integration principles to bushfire risks as they are dealt with by the draft Code. Findings point to elements of the Code that could be improved to reduce risks across the areas of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, mechanisms, risk reduction}, issn = {536}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-5430, title = {Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {462}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {
Understanding and predicting fire behaviour is a priority for fire services, land managers and sometimes individual businesses and residents. This is an\ enormous scientific challenge given bushfires are complex phenomena, with\ their behaviour and resultant severity driven\ by\ complicated interactions\ among living and dead vegetation, topography and weather conditions.\ A good understanding of fire risk across the landscape is critical in preparing\ and responding to bushfire events and managing fire regimes, and remote\ sensing data will enhance this understanding. However, the vast array of spatial\ data sources available is not being used ve\ ry effectively in fire management.\ This project uses remote sensing observations\ to\ produce spatial information on\ fire hazard and impacts needed by planners, land managers and emergency\ services\ to effectively manage fire at landscape scales. The group works\ closely with ACT Parks and Conservation Service and agencies beyond the\ ACT to better understand their procedures and information needs, comparing\ these with the spatial data and mapping methods that are readily available,\ and developing the next generation of mapping technologies to help them\ prepare and respond to bushfires.
}, keywords = {Bushfire, fire impacts, hazards, mapping fire}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-5619, title = {Modelling emissions from prescribed burning using FULLCAM}, number = {479}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Full Carbon Accounting Model (FullCAM) is a software tool developed by the Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy as a standard method for carbon accounting. It is primarily used as a means to report national\ greenhouse gas dynamics from the land sector due to anthropogenic activities. This\ study assessed the accuracy and usefulness of FullCAM in determining the mass of carbon (C) emissions produced from prescribed burning. FullCAM proved to be a simple and reasonably reliable method for estimating C emissions from prescribed burning activities and for tracking recovery of C pools related to forest ecosystems. In addition, C emissions from different prescribed burning scenarios and from wildfire can be easily compared. The FullCAM model can be used by land managers as a means to manage an important aspect of risk associated with planned burning. If land managers are required to perform C accounting activities in the future, the adoption of FullCAM will enable them to be compatible with the national standard of carbon accounting.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, emissions, FullCAM, modelling, Prescribed burning}, issn = {479}, author = {Senani Karunaratne and Malcolm Possell and David Pepper and Bell, Tina} } @article {bnh-5594, title = {Public health and natural hazards: new policies and preparedness initiatives developed from an Australian bushfire case study}, journal = {Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Objective: Public preparedness for natural hazard events is low. With worsening severe weather events due to climate change, public health policy and practices must evolve to more effectively engage communities. This study{\textquoteright}s findings identify and suggest new strategic public health policies to shift the practice of all-hazards preparedness into routine, everyday life.

Methods: Semi-structured interviews, focus groups and Thematic Analysis were used to investigate the interactions between participant groups: emergency responders and animal owners.

Results: Three policies designed to improve human safety and well-being are proposed and discussed. These are (i) a new system of workplace leave, (ii) an innovative regime of financial incentives for fire-ready properties, and (iii) review of the use of firebreaks on farms and rural blocks.

Conclusion: Policies proposed in this research aim to proactively narrow the awareness-preparedness gap and build adaptive capacity to minimise risk to human health in all-hazards contexts. Further research could evaluate the efficacy of trialled public policy.

Implications for public health: These new policies seek to contribute to establishing and maintaining a culture of preparedness as a routine aspect of everyday life, and thus promote and protect public health in the short, medium and long terms.

}, keywords = {animal owners, Bushfire, emergency responders, Preparedness, public health policy}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.12897}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1753-6405.12897}, author = {Rachel Westcott and Kevin Ronan and Hillary Bambrick and Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-5615, title = {Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Fire agencies are moving towards planning systems based on risk assessment; however, knowledge of the most effective way to quantify changes in risk to key values by application of prescribed fire is generally lacking. We present a quantification and inter-regional comparison of how risk to management values responds to variations in prescribed burning treatment rate. Fire simulations were run using the PHOENIX RapidFire fire behaviour simulator for two case study landscapes in interface zones in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia. A Bayesian network approach used these data to explore the influence of treatment and weather on risk from wildfire. Area burnt, length of powerline damaged and length of road damaged responded more strongly to treatment in the ACT than in Tasmania, whereas treatment mitigated house loss and life loss more strongly in Tasmania than the ACT. The effect of prescribed burning treatment rate on area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval was similar in each case study landscape. Our study shows that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by wildfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Climate change, trends, Wildfire, wildland fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18135}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18135}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-6856, title = {Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {29}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, pages = {414-426}, abstract = {

Fire agencies are moving towards planning systems based on risk assessment; however, knowledge of the most effective way to quantify changes in risk to key values by application of prescribed fire is generally lacking. We present a quantification and inter-regional comparison of how risk to management values responds to variations in prescribed burning treatment rate. Fire simulations were run using the PHOENIX RapidFire fire behaviour simulator for two case study landscapes in interface zones in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia. A Bayesian network approach used these data to explore the influence of treatment and weather on risk from wildfire. Area burnt, length of powerline damaged and length of road damaged responded more strongly to treatment in the ACT than in Tasmania, whereas treatment mitigated house loss and life loss more strongly in Tasmania than the ACT. The effect of prescribed burning treatment rate on area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval was similar in each case study landscape. Our study shows that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by wildfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Climate change, trends, Wildfire, wildland fire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18135}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18135}, author = {Brett Cirulis and Hamish Clarke and Matthias M. Boer and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock} } @conference {bnh-6508, title = {School-based bushfire education: advancing teaching and learning for risk reduction and resilience}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In response to Recommendation 6 of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, the topic of bushfire has been incorporated into the Australian school curriculum. To support the implementation of this new curriculum content, fire agencies and education authorities have invested in a range of bushfire education programs and resources. Research in the field of school-based bushfire education has also intensified. Drawing on key findings from a suite of recent Australian studies, this paper outlines two key elements of effective school-based bushfire education that have the potential to advance teaching and learning for risk reduction and resilience. The first is a holistic risk framework that builds children{\textquoteright}s conceptual understanding of bushfire risk as a socioenvironmental phenomenon that derives from the interaction a physical hazard, the vulnerability of exposed people and assets, and the capacities people possess for disaster risk reduction. The second is a place-based pedagogy of bushfire risk, which grounds teaching and learning in the socioenvironmental contexts of children{\textquoteright}s lives.\  The paper concludes with some key recommendations for the continued development of good practice in this emergent field.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, education, resilience, risk management, risk reduction, schools, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Briony Towers} } @article {bnh-6221, title = {Urban planning: historical changes integrating bushfire risk management in Victoria}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {34}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, pages = {60-66}, abstract = {

Bushfires represent an increased risk for people and properties in exposed urban areas. The integration of bushfire risk management considerations into urban planning is one of the approaches used to address this challenge. This paper summarises the key changes in urban planning and building regulations that were introduced in Victoria over time to minimise the effects of bushfire on settlements. These have generally occurred within four main eras, being the independent origins of planning and bushfire risk management, the progressive emergence of bushfire risk management into urban planning between the late 1970s and the early 1990s, the formalisation of bushfire risk management via urban planning with the Wildfire Management Overlay in 1997 and the 2011 reforms associated with the Bushfire Management Overlay and its following adjustments. Advancements in urban planning regulation have usually occurred after bushfire events that inflicted significant losses on communities. These changes represent an ongoing trend towards the integration of bushfire risk reduction measures into urban planning mechanisms.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, risk management, urban planning}, url = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, author = {Constanza Gonzalez-Mathiesen and Alan March and Justin Leonard and Mark Holland and Blanchi, Raphaele} } @article {bnh-5007, title = {Australian wildland-urban interface householders{\textquoteright} wildfire safety preparations: {\textquoteleft}Everyday life{\textquoteright} project priorities and perceptions of wildfire risk}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, abstract = {

Globally, many residents of wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities are at risk of wildfire attack but do not undertake adequate preparations. Householder wildfire risk perception has been proposed as an important influence on risk mitigation preparatory actions. However, research findings have been inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis of 10 studies and found the average correlation between wildfire risk perception and risk mitigation actions to be small: r = 0.17. In order to investigate wildfire risk perception and mitigation further we conducted two studies of Australian WUI householders{\textquoteright} wildfire risk perceptions and mitigation actions in the context of their everyday life activities conceptualised as {\textquoteleft}household projects{\textquoteright}. Study 1 involved 32 interviews. Both household wildfire safety project priority rankings (r = 0.47) and wildfire risk perception ratings (r = 0.44) were related significantly to number of completed wildfire preparation actions. Study 2 involved 127 householders completing an online survey, with 83 providing household wildfire safety project priority rankings. These rankings were related significantly to number of completed wildfire safety preparation actions (r = 0.38), but risk perception ratings were not related significantly (r = 0.08). Implications of viewing wildfire preparation actions as being situated in everyday life contexts are discussed.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, everyday life, personal projects, risk mitigation, WUI risk perception}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.09.017}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918308719$\#$!}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Jim McLennan and Kubra Koksal and Danielle Every} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6624, title = {Domestic architecture and the perception of risk in bushfire-prone areas}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, school = {University of Sydney}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

This thesis examines the way in which the architecture of a house, specifically construction materials and the structure{\textquoteright}s immediate environs, influences residents{\textquoteright} perception of bushfire risk. Three research questions were used to consider different aspects of risk perception for domestic architecture within a bushfire context. These questions were: {\textbullet} Do residents living in bushfire-prone areas of Australia give the same bushfire risk rating to their locality and their house? Do these reflect the bushfire risk for the same area as assessed by the state fire authority? {\textbullet} When anticipating a bushfire, which parts of their current house do residents in bushfire-prone areas of Australia believe to be the safest and which parts the most vulnerable? {\textbullet} What architectural interventions might change residents{\textquoteright} perceptions of the bushfire risk of their homes? The method used to test the research questions was mixed methods with pragmatism as the research worldview. A questionnaire containing both quantitative and qualitative questions was distributed to residents in eight sample sites selected from bushfire-prone areas of the Blue Mountains and the Central Coast of NSW, Australia. The questionnaire was completed by 252 respondents either in print or electronic form. The majority of respondents gave a lower bushfire risk rating for their local area than their local fire authority, the NSW Rural Fire Service. The majority of respondents gave the same or a lower risk rating for their house than for their local area. During a bushfire respondents indicated they intended to take shelter in up to twenty different places/parts of their house and immediate environs. While the bathroom was the most frequent choice, it represented less than one quarter of responses given. Respondents identified up to ten different places/parts of their house and immediate environs that they intended to avoid during a bushfire, with upstairs rooms and spaces being the most frequent choices. Materials used in the construction of homes did not appear to influence how respondents allocated the bushfire risk to their house. Rather it was the area directly surrounding their house and its proximity to bushland (particularly National Parks) that respondents used to determine the bushfire risk of their property. Non-architectural variables such as gender, age, pet ownership, property ownership, and responsibility for dependents had little effect on the way respondents allocated their bushfire risk. The age of the house also did not influence respondents{\textquoteright} perception of their bushfire risk with respondents in houses constructed to the latest building codes (AS 3959) not indicating that their houses had greater bushfire resistance. Respondents identified fifteen architectural improvements to increase the safety of houses during a bushfire; the most frequently ones were, roof sprinklers and the clearing of vegetation close to the house. For architectural improvement, four overarching themes emerged: specific bushfire-resistant additions; building construction; cleared space/limited vegetation; and building maintenance/defence. The findings of this research, when evaluated against industry knowledge, may be useful in developing new regulatory standards or providing advice in relation to new or existing homes in wild/forest/bushfire-prone areas of the world.

}, keywords = {architecture, Bushfire, land management, Risk perception}, url = {https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/handle/2123/18959}, author = {Brown, Douglas} } @article {bnh-4547, title = {Evaluation of Survive and Thrive}, number = {359}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, pages = {94}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Survive and Thrive pilot program is an intensive two year bushfire education program for primary school students in Grade 5/6. It is delivered through a community-based partnership between local CFA brigades and local primary schools. To date, the program has been delivered in the localities of Anglesea and Strathewen. In Anglesea, the partnership between Anglesea CFA and Anglesea Primary School was established in 2013 and the program has been running for four years. In Strathewen, the partnership between Strathewen Primary School and Arthurs Creek Fire Brigade was established in 2016 and the program has been running for 18 months.

The purpose of this evaluation was to examine the short-term and intermediate-term outcomes of the program in both Anglesea and Strathewen and to identify the key mechanisms and processes that contributed to those outcomes. By identifying the mechanisms and processes that contributed to program outcomes, the evaluation also seeks to identify what aspects of the program generated the most valuable outcomes for the resources invested. An additional aim of the evaluation was to examine key factors influencing the ongoing sustainability of the program in Anglesea and Strathewen and to identify a possible pathway toward scaled implementation.

The evaluation employed a mixed-methods design involving both quantitative and qualitative methods. The qualitative measures, which included semi-structured interviews and focus group interviews were the main focus; however, these were supplemented by a quantitative survey that was administered to both children and parents.\ \ 

}, keywords = {Bushfire, child, communities., Emergency management, Natural disasters, recovery, reduction, risk}, issn = {359}, author = {Briony Towers and Kevin Ronan} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6636, title = {Increasing the comprehensiveness of bushfire risk management in Victoria through the planning system}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Settlement patterns and projected climate change impacts for Victoria are increasing the likelihood of bushfire exposure to human settlements. Urban planning is now considered an important component in disaster risk reduction and bushfire risk management; however, it has not always played such a role. Bushfire planning controls in Victoria have adapted to the threat of bushfires over time, but the changes have not been documented in detail. A review of past and present policy and regulations is needed to determine the comprehensiveness of Victoria{\textquoteright}s approach to bushfire risk management and to identify any gaps so that bushfire threats can be better addressed in the future.

This thesis seeks to examine the comprehensiveness of bushfire planning controls in Victoria between 2008 and 2018 and how changes to planning scheme regulations have modified the level of comprehensiveness over time. To determine comprehensiveness, bushfire risk management policy from the Victoria Planning Provisions were analysed at key time periods against a conceptual framework based on five accepted categories of approaches for reducing and adapting to hazards in human settlements. The five categories were hazard avoidance, hazard reduction, vulnerability reduction, preparedness for response and preparedness for recovery. Policy was analysed using a pattern matching technique and a simple time series analysis. The results indicate that Victoria{\textquoteright}s current approach to bushfire risk management is more comprehensiveness than that was in place in 2008 because risk, vulnerability and bushfire behaviour, and four of the five categories for reducing and adapting to hazards are better addressed through policy. Overall, current policy is not as comprehensive as policy that was introduced in 2011. This thesis concludes by highlighting gaps in current policy that should be addressed in the future to improve resilience to bushfire hazards and outlines recommendations for further research.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, planning system, risk management}, author = {Lucy Ockenden} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6701, title = {Initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, school = {University of Adelaide}, address = {Adelaide}, abstract = {

Wildfires are naturally occurring phenomena that result in significant and catastrophic damage. Due to climate change, there has been a significant increase in the frequency, severity, and extent of wildfires. Therefore, there is a growing need to mitigate wildfire risk. In order to help mitigate the risk of wildfires, greater understanding is required. One particular gap in knowledge is the impact of smouldering combustion of potential fuel on wildfires. This thesis focuses on combustion of fuel beds in wildfires. Specifically, the thesis targets smouldering combustion. Smouldering combustion is a common type of combustion regime in wildfires and hazard reduction burning (a wildfire mitigation measure). Smouldering is a slow and low-temperature form of combustion, which shows no flame. Smouldering is a serious hazard because of its low ignition temperature, which makes it particularly relevant to fire initiation and spread. Smouldering plays a vital role in wildfires, as many forest biomass fuels such as grass, leaves and coarse woody debris are prone to smoulder. Most previous studies of smouldering combustion have only been carried out on polyurethane foam, due to its importance for residential fires. However, smouldering has been scarcely investigated from the point of view of wildfires. For example, smouldering combustion of forest fuel is scarcely studied. Hence, the project aims to develop a greater understanding of the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass under different conditions with an emphasis on wildfire. Locating smouldering combustion in wildfires and hazard reduction burning is difficult and time-consuming, as there is no effective method to identify the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds. It is critical to know when and where smouldering combustion in a biomass fuel bed starts, as smouldering combustion could transition to flaming combustion under certain conditions. Radiation is one of the important heat transfer mechanisms in wildfires; however, there are few studies on smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds started by external radiant heat flux. Although oxidiser flow rate and oxygen concentration have significant in influences on the propagation of smouldering front, their effects on the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuels are not well understood. Hence, the effects of oxidiser flow rate and oxygen concentration on the initiation of smouldering combustion are investigated. Fuels in a forest are diverse, and it is essential to have a better understanding of what effects forest fuels have on smouldering combustion. Thus, the effects of plant species and plant parts on the initiation of smouldering in biomass fuel beds are also investigated. Within this framework, the work presented in this thesis can be split into two main topics: 1. Conditions required to initiate smouldering combustion in bio- mass fuel beds The required radiant heat flux and air flow rate for the initiation of smouldering and flaming combustion in a biomass fuel bed are investigated in an experimental testing rig. This investigation identifies and quantifies smouldering and flaming combustion in a biomass fuel bed based on the measurements of temperature, product gas concentration and mass change, and the required radiant heat flux and air flow rate for the initiation of smouldering and flaming combustion are determined. The effects of heating time and oxygen concentration on the initiation of radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are investigated in the same testing rig. In this experimental study, the differences between radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are characterised based on the measurements of temperature, product gas concentration and mass change, and the required heating time and oxygen concentration for radiation-aided and self-sustained smouldering combustion are determined. 2. Factors that influence smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds The results from the first topic reveal that oxygen availability has significant effects on the initiation of smouldering combustion in a biomass fuel bed. The air permeability of a biomass fuel bed determines oxygen availability in that fuel bed. Hence, the air permeability of natural forest fuel beds is investigated in an air permeability testing rig. In this study, the air permeability of natural forest fuel beds is determined using experimental and theoretical methods. A comparison between the experimental and theoretical methods is made. The effects of Euca- lyptus species and plant parts on smouldering combustion are also investigated. In this study, the different plant parts from different Eucalyptus species are characterised based on the results of the thermogravimetric and ultimate analyses. The results of this study show that the differences among the different plant parts from different Eucalyptus can be characterised and quantified based on the results of the thermogravimetric and ultimate analyses. It is also found that Eucalyptus species and plant parts have significant effects on smouldering combustion. Although this thesis covers a series of experimental studies of the initiation of smouldering combustion in biomass fuel beds. There are still many important factors to be considered. For examples, the thesis focuses on small-scale laboratory experiments to better understand the fundamental studies of smouldering combustion of biomass. However, the real-world conditions could be much more complex. For example, forest fuel beds are composed with fuel particles with various sizes and shapes. These factors also have effects on smouldering combustion.

}, keywords = {biomass, Bushfire, smouldering combustion}, url = {https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/handle/2440/114254}, author = {Wang, Houzhi} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5397, title = {Navigating Uncertainty: a qualitative study of resident involvement in the 2013 Forcett Tasmania bushfire disaster}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This thesis is a grounded theory analysis of resident involvement in the 2013 Forcett Tasmania bushfire disaster.\  Friday 4 January 2013 was one of the most significant fire days in Tasmania since 1967.\  The fire threatened life and left a trail of destruction, animals perished, homes, livelihood and landscape were destroyed or damaged.\  Despite this there appeared to be a level of social structure and processes evident.\  Many residents carried out a range of actions and activities before, during and after the bushfire disaster.\  It appeared that residents had a way of doing things and these actions were significant.\  In the post disaster phase, many of these local processes appeared to be overlooked by the well-intentioned external help or overwhelmed by the visitor-related goodwill.\ 

The analysis presented in this thesis focuses on the local social processes.\  The main question opening the inquiry was - What is community-led recovery in the context of a bushfire hazard and disaster?\  The qualitative research design involved in-depth interviews, to develop an explanatory account of the phenomenon of interest based on the analysis of people{\textquoteright}s experience and perspectives.\  The 40 people who participated in this study were residents of the small communities impacted by the bushfire disaster, external support volunteers, and representatives of local and state government and non-government services.

The constructivist grounded theory approach that was adopted by the researcher, constructed a theory grounded in the data that was collected by research participants.\  The grounded theory {\textquoteleft}Navigating Uncertainty{\textquoteright} outlines processes of surviving a bushfire disaster.\  A psychosocial process represents an interpretive understanding of what community members encountered before, during and after the bushfire disaster.\  The substantive theory {\textquoteleft}Navigating Uncertainty{\textquoteright} is built around community member{\textquoteright}s main concerns and what they did to resolve their concerns; their decision-making and actions underpinned by the meaning they gave to their experience.\  In a context of uncertainty community members depended on processes and systems that were familiar to them which fostered a sense of stability and helped sustain them through a period of change.\  This research concludes it is necessary to understand the holistic nature of people{\textquoteright}s lived experience in disaster events.\  Recovery includes the way people interpret and manage their context throughout a bushfire disaster, not just the post-disaster phase.\  Furthermore, the research identifies the importance of safeguarding and sustaining social stability, and approaches that support the participation of community members in a way that is meaningful and respectful of their experience.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, community, disaster, grounded theory, recovery}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162621}, author = {Fiona Jennings} } @article {bnh-5064, title = {Should we leave now? Behavioral factors in evacuation under wildfire threat}, journal = {Fire Technology}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {30}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {

Wildfires pose a serious threat to life in many countries. For police, fire and emergency services authorities in most jurisdictions in North America and Australia evacuation is now the option that is preferred overwhelmingly. Wildfire evacuation modeling can assist authorities in planning evacuation responses to future threats. Understanding residents{\textquoteright} behavior under wildfire threat may assist in wildfire evacuation modeling. This paper reviews North American and Australian research into wildfire evacuation behavior published between January 2005 and June 2017. Wildfire evacuation policies differ across the two regions: in North America mandatory evacuations are favored, in Australia most are advisory. Research from both regions indicates that following a wildfire evacuation warning some threatened residents will wish to remain on their property in order to protect it, many will delay evacuating, and some residents who are not on their property when an evacuation warning is issued may seek to return. Mandatory evacuation is likely to result in greater compliance, enforcement policies are also likely to be influential. Self-delayed evacuation is likely if warnings are not sufficiently informative: residents are likely to engage in information search rather than initiating evacuation actions. The wildfire warning and threat histories of a location may influence residents{\textquoteright} decisions and actions. The complexities of behavioral factors influencing residents{\textquoteright} actions following an evacuation warning pose challenges for wildfire evacuation modeling. Suggestions are offered for ways in which authorities might reduce the numbers of residents who delay evacuating following a wildfire warning.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, delay, Evacuation, human behavior, modeling, Wildfire}, doi = {10.1007/s10694-018-0753-8 }, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10694-018-0753-8}, author = {Jim McLennan and Barbara Ryan and Christopher Bearman and Keith Toh} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6621, title = {Effects of prenatal bushfire stress on life history traits in humans}, year = {2017}, month = {01/2017}, school = {Australian National University}, keywords = {Bushfire, bushfire effects, Stress}, url = {https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/132117}, author = {Megan O{\textquoteright}Donnell} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5457, title = {Factors influencing householder self-evacuation in two Australian bushfires}, year = {2017}, month = {08/2017}, school = {RMIT}, type = {Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The thesis investigated householder self-evacuation decision-making during bushfires in the Perth and Adelaide Hills in 2014 and 2015. It explored the factors that influenced householders{\textquoteright} decisions to evacuate, identified factors that predict self-evacuation and established the characteristics of self-evacuators. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a conceptual framework for the research. Its theoretical and analytical usefulness in an Australian context, was assessed. A mixed methods research strategy was used involving quantitative telephone surveys of 457 bushfire-affected participants and face-to-face interviews of 109 participants in 59 households.\ 

The study concluded that environmental and social cues and warnings and householders{\textquoteright} perceptions of the threat, of hazard adjustments and of other stakeholders, influenced self-evacuation decision-making. Protective action perceptions, particularly the effectiveness of evacuating or not evacuating in protecting personal safety or property, were most important in predicting self-evacuation. Receipt of official warnings and the perception of likely impact of the bushfire on property were also important predictors. Undertaking long-run hazard adjustments, although not predictive of self-evacuation, was pivotal in shaping perceptions of the effectiveness of evacuating and remaining in protecting personal safety and property and indirectly influenced evacuation decisions. Seven archetypes that characterised householders{\textquoteright} self-evacuation attitudes and behaviour were identified. These included Threat, and Responsibility Deniers, Dependent, and Considered Evacuators, Community Guided and Experienced Independents all who took different decisional {\textquoteleft}rules of thumb{\textquoteright} and routes toward evacuating or remaining . The PADM needs to be split into two separate models to incorporate the influence of long-run hazard adjustments on protective action decision-making in an Australian bushfire.

The findings suggest that future research on those who wait and see during a bushfire should take account of their decisional rules of thumb and that design and targeting of Australian bushfire safety policy should better account for self-evacuator characteristics.\ 

}, keywords = {{\textquoteright}Dependent Evacuator{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteright}Wait and See{\textquoteright}, Archetypes, Bushfire, decision-making, Long-run hazard adjustment, PADM, Prediction Policy, Self-evacuation, Wildfire}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:162093}, author = {Ken Strahan} } @article {bnh-4619, title = {Statistical characterisation of wind fields over complex terrain with applications in bushfire modelling}, journal = {Research Gate}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, abstract = {

The propagation of bushfire across the landscape is dependent on a variety of environmental factors, but the wind, in particular, has a major effect on both the speed and direction of fire propagation. As such, bushfire spread models, which underpin successful bushfire management, require accurate knowledge of the pattern of winds across the landscape. This can be problematic over complex terrain where winds exhibit considerable spatial variability due to wind-terrain interactions, and where detailed measurements of wind characteristics are comparatively rare. This thesis contributes two new wind datasets to address the previous lack of data available to develop and validate wind models over complex terrain. It also details analyses that focus on the statistical characterisation of wind as joint wind direction distributions, which represent the directional wind response to changing topography and surface roughness. A novel method for toroidal surface fitting is introduced and implemented to estimate the true continuous response from discrete observed data. This new method, which relies on a conceptually simple adaptation of planar techniques, is compared to the limited range of available toroidal surface estimation techniques and is shown to perform as well as, if not better than, these more sophisticated methods. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to highlight the sensitivity of statistical comparison tests to alternative distribution structures, and to validate bivariate and circular extensions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. These tests are applied to directional wind response pairs, showing that vegetation regrowth has a significant but varying impact across complex terrain. Finally, this thesis demonstrates how statistical approaches can be used to complement current physics-based wind modelling methods. The resulting probabilistic representations provide more accurate predictions of wind direction variability, and are better suited to emerging ensemble-based bushfire prediction frameworks. As such, they provide a superior characterisation of uncertainty across the fire modelling process; ultimately enabling fire managers to make more informed decisions.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, bushfire., Emergency management, Fire, propagation, wind modelling}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322212511_Statistical_characterisation_of_wind_fields_over_complex_terrain_with_applications_in_bushfire_modelling}, author = {Rachael Quill} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4426, title = {Statistical Characterisation Of Wind Fields Over Complex Terrain With Applications In Bushfire Modelling}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {274}, school = {University of New South Wales}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

The propagation of bushfire across the landscape is dependent on a variety of environmental factors, but the wind, in particular, has a major effect on both the speed and direction of fire propagation. As such, bushfire spread models, which underpin successful bushfire management, require accurate knowledge of the pattern of winds across the landscape. This can be problematic over complex terrain where winds exhibit considerable spatial variability due to wind-terrain interactions, and where detailed measurements of wind characteristics are comparatively rare.

This thesis contributes two new wind datasets to address the previous lack of data available to develop and validate wind models over complex terrain. It also details analyses that focus on the statistical characterisation of wind as joint wind direction distributions, which represent the directional wind response to changing topography and surface roughness. A novel method for toroidal surface fitting is introduced and implemented to estimate the true continuous response from discrete observed data. This new method, which relies on a conceptually simple adaptation of planar techniques, is compared to the limited range of available toroidal surface estimation techniques and is shown to perform as well as, if not better than, these more sophisticated methods.

Monte Carlo simulations are employed to highlight the sensitivity of statistical comparison tests to alternative distribution structures, and to validate bivariate and circular extensions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. These tests are applied to directional wind response pairs, showing that vegetation regrowth has a significant but varying impact across complex terrain.

Finally, this thesis demonstrates how statistical approaches can be used to complement current physics-based wind modelling methods. The resulting probabilistic representations provide more accurate predictions of wind direction variability, and are better suited to emerging ensemble-based bushfire prediction frameworks. As such, they provide a superior characterisation of uncertainty across the fire modelling process; ultimately enabling fire managers to make more informed decisions.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, bushfire management, propagation, spatial variability, toroidal surface, wind, wind-terrain}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Rachael_Quill/publication/322212511_Statistical_characterisation_of_wind_fields_over_complex_terrain_with_applications_in_bushfire_modelling/links/5a4c20cf458515a6bc6bf931/Statistical-characterisation-of-wind-fields-ov}, author = {Rachael Quill} } @article {BF-4275, title = {Bushfires are {\textquotedblleft}men{\textquoteright}s business{\textquotedblright}: The importance of gender and rural hegemonic masculinity}, journal = {Journal of Rural Studies}, volume = {30}, year = {2013}, month = {04/2013}, pages = {110-119}, chapter = {110}, abstract = {This paper offers a critical review of the international literature on gender, disaster and rural masculinities. Empirical reference is made to bushfires in Australia, offering new evidence from the State of Victoria. Bushfires loom large in the Australian imagination and there is an increasing amount of research now being conducted in relation to bushfire events. A significant gap remains, however, with regard to the issue of gender. Despite increasing evidence that gender plays a significant role with reference to disaster risk assessment, preparation and response, a gendered analysis of bushfire preparation and response has not been a sustained research priority. Building on the writing of others, a critical assessment is provided of the concept of a specifically Australian, rural hegemonic masculinity as a possible way of better understanding the social dimensions of gender, and bushfire preparation and response in the Australian context. This conceptual consideration is extended to draw attention to the process whereby alternative conceptions of masculinities may emerge. This recognition provides a basis for further research on gender and disaster internationally.}, keywords = {Bushfire, Community Fireguard, Gender, Masculinity, Wildfire}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2013.01.002}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0743016713000041}, author = {Meagan Tyler and Peter Fairbrother} } @article {BF-4281, title = {Quantifying spatio-temporal differences between fire shapes: Estimating fire travel paths for the improvement of dynamic spread models}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {46}, year = {2013}, month = {08/2013}, pages = {33-43}, chapter = {33}, abstract = {Dynamic fire spread models are a recent development in landscape management that provide for the simulation of the spread of fires through time under complex weather conditions. These allow risks to be assessed and resources to be strategically managed. The need for reliable and accurate fire models is of particular importance in the face of recent catastrophic wildfires in Australia, Europe and the United States. However, while fire spread models are developed using physical knowledge and empirical observations, there are few techniques which can be used to objectively assess the {\textquoteleft}goodness of fit{\textquoteright} of spatial predictions of fire spread. We propose a new method to allow the comparison of fire perimeters, providing for the discrimination of sources of simulation error and assisting in the collection of empirical spread data from observed fires. Differences between fire perimeters are quantified using linear vectors aligned with the direction of spread of the perimeter being sampled. These can provide an indication of difference in terms of the fire spread distance on the ground. The location, direction and length of these vectors can be used to assess spread rates to assist with model calibration. We demonstrated the utility of this method using a case study which assessed differences between the observed and simulated progression of an Australian wildfire. The new indices were found to be effective descriptors of differences in fire shape and hold potential for the spatial evaluation of fire spread models. The indices can be used to compare similar fire shapes; however they are unsuited for cases where there are large differences between perimeters.}, keywords = {Bushfire, Morphometrics, Perimeter, Shape analysis, Spatial validation, Wildfire}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.02.005}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815213000455}, author = {Thomas Duff and Chong, Derek and Tolhurst, K.G.} } @article {BF-4278, title = {Effects of networks on learning during emergency events}, journal = {Disaster Prevention and Management}, volume = {21}, year = {2012}, month = {2012}, pages = {584-598}, chapter = {584}, abstract = {Purpose {\textendash} This paper aims to explore the relationship between learning and the social networks employed within the context of emergency management. It hypothesises, using social network theory as a framework for analysis, that changes to interconnectedness between actors are implicated in the potential for those actors to learn and improvise in dynamically changing and emergent conditions. Design/methodology/approach {\textendash} To test the hypotheses, survey data were investigated which were collected as part of a research study with the support of the Australian Bushfire Co-operative Research Centre (CRC). This survey was completed by experienced personnel reflecting on a number of indicators in an emergency event. Findings {\textendash} Results show that increases in actors{\textquoteright} involvement within the social emergency management network influences the ability of those actors to engage in learning-related work activity. The paper infers that by developing learning related resources within the context of their social interactions these emergency personnel are better able to adapt and improvise in complex emergency events. Research limitations/implications {\textendash} As an area of further research, it would be useful to apply the existing theoretical model to the context of another domain, preferably one that shares characteristics of uncertainty and unstable environments. Originality/value {\textendash} Most existing studies of learning theory in human networks have focused on learning in situations requiring stable working relationships with no environmental uncertainties. In this paper, it is argued that the designs of existing models are useful as a building block, yet flawed for application within the context of disaster management. By presenting a model of learning-related work activity, as an ongoing aspect of network connectedness, personnel within emergency services organisations can strengthen their capacity to be flexible and adaptable.}, keywords = {Adaptability, Australia, Bushfire, Emergency management, Fire, Learning, Social networks}, issn = {0965-3562}, doi = {10.1108/09653561211278716 }, url = {http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=17063627}, author = {Jafar Hamra and Liaquat Hossain and Owen, Christine and Alireza Abbasi} }