@article {bnh-8129, title = {Kangaroo Island Black Summer fire reconstruction}, number = {685}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In the 2019-20 summer, wildfire affected an area of around 200,000 hectares on Kangaroo Island, South Australia, in what has become known as the Black Summer, with significant ongoing social, economic and environmental impacts.

The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard the geostationary satellite Himawari-8 provides infrared imagery at 2km spatial resolution at nadir in 10- minute intervals. This allows wildfires to be detected and monitored in quasi-real time using the Biogeographical Region and Individual Geostationary HHMMSS Threshold (BRIGHT) algorithm (Engel, Jones and Reinke, 2020), developed in partnership between the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) and the Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC. This report outlines the methods used to verify hotspots detected by the BRIGHT algorithm and reconstruct the Black Summer fires using spatio-temporal clustering.

}, keywords = {black summer, Fire, fire impacts, kangaroo island, reconstructions, remote sensing, Satellite}, issn = {685}, author = {Simon Ramsey and Karin Reinke and Nur Trihantoro and Simon Jones and Chermelle Engel} } @conference {bnh-6504, title = {Experiences with the global impacts of climate change}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Textbox Australia{\textquoteright}s emergency managers are in the grips of climate change. The climate is changing in Canberra, where I work. In turn that is affecting the spectrum of incidents that we as emergency managers are responding to. This involves the community through the risks to the community (that we seek to mitigate).

I seek to explore this through my direct experiences on the job: as an emergency manager, as a technical expert and as a research scientist. Our climate in Canberra has changed, and has changed dramatically, starting with the 1997 El Ni{\~n}o event when our climate started following what is termed the {\textquotedblleft}Hockey Stick Curve{\textquotedblright} (Mann et al, 1999). A typical summer now involves: extreme heat, extreme atmospheric moisture, extreme storms and extreme raised dust. By using the hockey stick concept it is clear that this is not the {\textquotedblleft}New Norm{\textquotedblright}, rather that the situation may deteriorate quickly.

Looking more widely, across the nation, we have seen challenging wildfire outbreaks in Queensland, Tasmania (twice) and other areas. My work as a fire behaviour analyst (FBAN) makes it clear that our prior expectations are losing their validity. What do we replace them with? Looking globally, I have deployed to Canada as an FBAN and I am collaborating as part of a global atmospheric research project looking at the growing impact of fire thunderstorms (pyroCbs). This required monitoring of smoke impact on the Greenland Ice Cap, and its potential impacts. I was in the IMT for two of the world{\textquoteright}s most significant pyroCb events. We are seeing this new wildfire problem occur in new regions, starting with Australia in 2001, but now expanding rapidly every year.

Staggering changes, devastating impacts and massive challenges - are we adapting correctly? I offer some take-home messages to help, covering observing, sharing, preparing and adapting.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, Fire behaviour, fire impacts, fire management, global impact, Wildfire}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Rick McRae} } @article {bnh-5437, title = {Historical background and current developments for mapping burned area from satellite Earth observation}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {225}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, pages = {45-64}, abstract = {

Fire has a diverse range of impacts on Earth{\textquoteright}s physical and social systems. Accurate and up to date information on areas affected by fire is critical to better understand drivers of fire activity, as well as its relevance for\ biogeochemical cycles, climate, air quality, and to aid fire management. Mapping burned areas was traditionally done from field sketches. With the launch of the first Earth\ observation satellites, remote sensing quickly became a more practical alternative to detect burned areas, as they provide timely regional and global coverage of fire occurrence. This review paper explores the physical basis to detect burned area from satellite observations, describes the historical trends of using\ satellite sensors\ to monitor burned areas, summarizes the most recent approaches to map burned areas and evaluates the existing burned area products (both at global and regional scales). Finally, it identifies potential future opportunities to further improve burned area detection from Earth observation satellites.

}, keywords = {Burned area, Climate change, Fire, fire impacts, Lidar, Radar}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.013}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425719300689}, author = {Emilio Chuvieco and Florent Mouillot and Guido van der Werf and Jes{\'u}s San Miguel and Mihai Tanasse and Nikos Koutsias and Mariano Garcia and Marta Yebra and Marc Padilla and Ioannis Gitas and Angelika Heil and Todd Hawbaker and Louis Giglio} } @article {bnh-5430, title = {Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {462}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {
Understanding and predicting fire behaviour is a priority for fire services, land managers and sometimes individual businesses and residents. This is an\ enormous scientific challenge given bushfires are complex phenomena, with\ their behaviour and resultant severity driven\ by\ complicated interactions\ among living and dead vegetation, topography and weather conditions.\ A good understanding of fire risk across the landscape is critical in preparing\ and responding to bushfire events and managing fire regimes, and remote\ sensing data will enhance this understanding. However, the vast array of spatial\ data sources available is not being used ve\ ry effectively in fire management.\ This project uses remote sensing observations\ to\ produce spatial information on\ fire hazard and impacts needed by planners, land managers and emergency\ services\ to effectively manage fire at landscape scales. The group works\ closely with ACT Parks and Conservation Service and agencies beyond the\ ACT to better understand their procedures and information needs, comparing\ these with the spatial data and mapping methods that are readily available,\ and developing the next generation of mapping technologies to help them\ prepare and respond to bushfires.
}, keywords = {Bushfire, fire impacts, hazards, mapping fire}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-5928, title = {Mapping bushfire hazards and impacts annual report 2018-2019}, number = {511}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report is the output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC (BNHCRC), Project A1 {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It summarises the project objectives, introduces the team members as well as documents the project progress and outcomes during the financial year 2018/2019.

During this financial year we have:

  1. Worked on a comprehensive characterization of fire risk conditions through the integration of fire weather, dead Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) and total biomass into the Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS);
  2. Worked on AFMS website version 3 that incorporated feedback on the trial utilisation of the data service;
  3. Evaluated the feasibility and benefits of the operational use of alternative satellite data in AFMS to ensure long-term data continuity;
  4. Coupled a process-based model that simulates litter fuel moisture and a distributed biophysical model (the Australian Water Resources Assessment system Landscape model) to predict dead fuel moisture content;
  5. Published six journal manuscripts, seventeen conference abstracts and one milestone reports with another one in preparation. We have also had eight appearances in the media;
  6. Hosted two international exchange visits and were approached by more than 30 domestic and international applicants for a PhD scholarship or postdoc position in bushfire research; and
  7. Submitted an application for utilisation funds from the BNHCRC to develop a high-resolution prototype version of AFMS.

Over the next year (2019-2020), this research project will focus on finishing the analysis on the fire risk index as well as using remote sensing data to derive spatial and temporal explicit fuel accumulation curves. In terms of utilization, we will liaise with Geoscience Australia (GA) on transitioning the AFMS as GA has agreed to be in charge of the long term operationalization and maintenance.

}, keywords = {bushfires, fire behavior, fire impacts, hazards, impacts, mapping}, issn = {511}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Li Zhao and Honghao Zeng} } @conference {bnh-6531, title = {Probability and consequence of post-fire contamination events in a water supply catchment}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Large cities around the world source their drinking water from forested catchments, which deliver water that is treatable at minimal costs.

These forests are often prone to wildfire, which tend to increase surface runoff, destabilize soils and trigger increased sediment delivery into water supply systems. The consequences of wildfire for water supply are a significant concern, with the potential for extended periods of water supply disruption, increased water treatment cost, and a demand for catchment restoration and investment in expensive treatment infrastructure. Moreover, with climate change, the likelihood of wildfire is increasing in many forest ecosystems making water supply systems increasingly exposed to post-wildfire contamination.

There are numerous uses for models that predict water quality impacts. On an operational level, models that reveal spatial variation in the erosion susceptibility provide catchment managers with a means to prioritize risk mitigation through fuel reduction or post-wildfire response. In such cases, spatial mapping of erosion risk in a relative sense may be sufficient to provide effective tools for allocating resources and mitigating risk in the areas of the catchment that are most likely to be producing sediment. When developing strategic plans and making decisions about the future management of a water resource, the demands on predictive models increase. For instance, a water supply agency may want to determine if there is a case for upgrading water treatment capability or adjusting the water supply network to reduce the likelihood of water supply interruptions due to wildfires. In this setting, a detailed understanding of risk is required for cost-benefit analysis to inform decisions about such investments.

In this study we are motivated by the need amongst water supply managers to know {\textquoteleft}For how long is it likely that my reservoir will be offline due to contamination by post-wildfire erosion?{\textquoteright}. In addressing this question, we seek to provide the means for developing policy and investment strategies within environmental management frameworks that are underpinned by economics and risk. The specific objective of the study is to model how frequency and magnitude of erosion in headwaters translates to probability and duration of water contamination exceeding treatability thresholds at the water offtake. In this study we only consider sediment in our risk model because treatment facilities are often highly vulnerable to turbidity caused by suspended sediment.

Our paper outlines a parameter-reduction approach whereby empirical transfer functions are used to link a probabilistic model of sediment delivery from burned headwaters and a reservoir hydrodynamic model. With these transfer functions we produce a direct measure of risk (i.e. probability of consequence) and discuss practical questions around potential cost of the wildfire threat to water supply agencies and the capacity for catchment managers to mitigate such costs. Furthermore, we use the model to evaluate how different model components contribute to uncertainty in risk.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {erosion risk, fire impacts, fire severity, risk management, water supply}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Petter Nyman and Peter Yeates and Christoph Langhans and Philip J. Noske and Shane Haydon and Gary J. Sheridan} } @conference {bnh-6528, title = {Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold: a pyrocumulonimbus prediction tool}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Pyrocumulonimbus (fire-induced thunderstorms, pyroCb) are associated with unpredictable changes in fire intensity, spread rates and direction, enhanced ember transport and lightning ignitions. Conventional thunderstorm threats such as downbursts, hail, lightning, and tornadoes may also be present. This paper introduces a pyroCb prediction tool and its application is demonstrated.

In favourable atmospheric conditions, suitably large and hot fires can produce pyroCb cloud in the form of deep convective columns with many similarities to conventional thunderstorms. They may be accompanied by strong inflow, dangerous downbursts and lightning strikes, which may enhance fire spread rates and fire intensity, cause sudden changes in fire spread direction, and the lightning may ignite additional fires. Dangerous pyroCb conditions are not well understood and can be very difficult to forecast.

In recent Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC (BNHCRC) research, a method for determining how favourable the atmospheric environment is for pyroCb development was developed. This method is combined with a plume-rise model (originally developed for pollutant dispersion prediction) to determine how much heat a fire must produce for pyroCb to develop in a given atmospheric environment. More specifically, this fire heat is the rate at which heat enters the fire plume (which has units of power), often termed the {\textquoteleft}power of the fire{\textquoteright} or {\textquoteleft}firepower{\textquoteright}. A theoretical minimum firepower required for pyroCb to develop in a given atmospheric environment is calculated, termed the Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold (PFT).

Forecast spatial plots of PFT are being trialled that provide an indication of how the favourability of the atmosphere for pyroCb development varies in space and time over typical weather forecast periods. It is anticipated that such plots will provide useful guidance for fire weather forecasters and fire agencies. Preliminary studies have shown that the PFT can vary substantially from day to day, and that days that favour pyroCb formation do not necessarily favour large-hot fires. A PFT-flag is also under development that identifies when both pyroCb and large-hot fires are favourable.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fire impacts, predictors, risk management, thunderstorms}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {KJ Tory} } @article {bnh-5426, title = {Relicts at Risk: Impacts of the 2016 Tasmanian Fires on Pencil Pine (Athrotaxis Cupressoides)}, number = {459}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The main goal of this study is to obtain empirical measurements of fuel loads within the first year after a fire to complement the measurements of fuel loads taken directly before the fires.\  This will not only allow us to precisely quantify the fuel loads consumed by these relatively low-severity fires, but it will also give us a baseline measurement of fuel loads.\  We can use this baseline to anchor measurements of fuel accumulation in mature wet eucalypt forests that are part of related TERN and BNHCRC studies attempting to measure both the effects of climate and stand age on fuel accumulation in wet forests.\ 

}, keywords = {fire impacts, fire management, post-fire recover}, author = {Aimee Bliss and Lynda Prior and David Bowman} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4653, title = {Changing Fire Regimes in Tropical and Subtropical Australia}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, pages = {190}, school = {University of Queensland}, address = {St Lucia}, abstract = {

The focus of the study is to investigate regional and local past, present and future changes in fire regimes of tropical and subtropical Queensland and shifts in vegetation composition and structure. Fire has been shown to be a significant driver of ecosystem evolution, composition and distribution through its impact on biota. Within Australia fire has long played a role in shaping the landscape, with increased fire frequency, associated with heightened aridity, over the last five million years promoting the expansion of fire adapted sclerophyll vegetation across the continent. Evidence of anthropogenic fires date back to approximately 50 ka (thousand years ago) with the advent of Aboriginal occupation and fire-stick practices, however with the arrival of Europeans there was a decline in fire frequencies, related to fire exclusion that observes an increase in fire intensity and severity. A review of the introduction of tropical African perennial grasses to improve grazing in tropical and semi-arid regions of northern Australia was also undertaken. This introduction has resulted in some exotic grass species such as Gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus), Mission grass (Cenchrus polystachios syn. Pennisetum polystachion) and Guinea grass (Megathyrsus maximus syn. Panicum maximum Jacq. var. trichoglume) becoming invasive pests. Invasion by these exotic grasses has serious implications for ecosystem function, altering fire regime dynamics through increasing the distribution and abundance of fine fuels. With increased fine fuels there is a serious danger that there will be an increase in fire frequency and intensity resulting in higher severity burns and higher vegetation mortality, with possible local species extinctions and habitat modification or change. Macro charcoal and pollen records were used from Fraser Island, subtropical eastern Australia to identify fire and vegetation histories, which show substantial temporal and spatial changes in past fire frequencies and vegetation composition for the last 24,000 years. Pollen records show pyrophobic rainforest taxa dominated and then declined while pyrogenic sclerophyll arboreal taxa increased correlating with an increase in fire frequencies, and a dryer climate. This was followed by a dramatic increase in Restionaceae values at the beginning of the Holocene (~10,000 years ago) that dropped off as a marked peak in mangroves, primarily the Rhizophoraceae and Melaleuca iii occurred, possibly linked with sea level rise approximately 6000 to 5000 years ago, which was also associated with lower fire frequencies. Restionaceae then recovered from around 2 ka to the European settlement period, when a dramatic change in fire frequency occurred linked to fire suppression and was followed by vegetation thickening (i.e. increase in arboreal taxa) in the mid to late 20th century. Vegetation thickening was investigated on Fraser Island through land change analysis of aerial photographs and survey data between 1958 and 2016 of a wetland system at Moon Point. This was undertaken using the Land Change Modeller (IDRISI TerrSet), with results showing that forest and woodland communities have invaded the fringes of a restiad dominated wetland. Pollen results from adjacent sediment cores support the occurrence of vegetation thickening that appears to be linked to marked changes in fire regimes on the island associated with European management since the 19th century. A projection of further landscape change was made to 2066 and this suggested a 30\% loss in wetland extent by this time under present fire frequencies (i.e. with a mean of approximately one fire every plus/minus 12 years). Identifying past and present fire regimes and vegetation composition are important for fire modelling as this provides possible scenario based probabilities for changes in fire frequency and intensity. Modelling is useful in that it provides managers with a tool to ascertain possible scenario based outcomes depending on the input values. Here the FireBGCv2 fire simulation model has been applied to an Australian context to provide a research simulation platform for exploring fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics that can be directly applied to fire management applications. Fire has played an integral role in shaping the Australian landscape, with fire regimes driven by both climatic and anthropogenic factors during the late Quaternary period. Evidence of shifts in vegetation and fire regimes for the subtropics of Australia can be seen from pollen and charcoal analysis, with dramatic changes occurring over the past 24,000 years on Fraser Island. With the arrival and settlement of Europeans in the mid19th century, fire regimes were once again changed that resulted in further vegetation shifts due to a fire exclusion policy. Further shifts in fire regimes can be seen in tropical northern Australia through the introduction on invasive grasses increasing fuel loads and iv fire frequency, resulting in a transformed landscape, perpetuating a fire grass cycle. However in the subtropics alterations in fire management have seen a reduction in fire frequency with a thickening of vegetation along the ecotone of E. minus wetlands and sclerophyllous forests at Moon Point on Fraser Island. The complexities of fire regimes for managers is obvious, therefore there is a need for a dynamic mechanistic fire simulation model that managers can use as a tool to project present and future fire events.

}, keywords = {burning, Fire, fire impacts, fire regime, grassland, Great Sandy region., history, Queensland}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.14264/uql.2018.66}, author = {Philip Stewart} }