@article {bnh-5831, title = {Building resilience through flood risk communication annual report 2018-2019}, number = {509}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project commenced in July 2017 and comprises two phases:

  1. Understanding behaviour in and around floodwater, and
  2. Evaluating flood risk communication materials and developing guidelines.

This project is based on the findings of earlier BNHCRC research that investigated human fatalities from natural disasters (Haynes et al., 2017). This project focuses on the two behaviours most frequently associated with flood fatalities:

  1. Driving into floodwater in a motor vehicle, and
  2. Recreating in floodwater.

The focus is on the at-risk groups identified from this earlier research including emergency services personnel, younger and older male drivers, and children and young adults who play in floodwater (Haynes et al., 2017).

The year 2 activities that have been undertaken include:

Work is now underway to transition to Phase 2 activities and to maximise project utilisation opportunities.

}, keywords = {communication, emergency management., Flood, resilience, risk, risk mitigation}, issn = {509}, author = {Mel Taylor and Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa} } @conference {bnh-6506, title = {Flood vulnerability functions: detailed vs generalised approach }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Flood vulnerability functions for buildings (often called stage-damage functions) relate flood damage to the depth of inundation in the building. These functions are generally used in assessing flood risk and in evaluating cost-effective mitigation strategies for flood risk management. Flood vulnerability models are usually developed for a certain location by following empirical, analytical or heuristic procedures. They can be developed for a representative building type (detailed approach) or representing a mix of building types (generalised approach).

Geoscience Australia (GA) has developed a suite of flood vulnerability functions for a range of building types (detailed approach) that covers residential, commercial, industrial and community building land use types. These functions are best used in detailed micro level studies and are applicable to the highest resolution of building exposure information with flood vulnerability directly attributed to individual buildings.

This paper describes research with the National Flood Risk Advisory Group (NFRAG), the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience (AIDR), state and local governments and industry to translate detailed vulnerability information into practical guidance for flood risk managers undertaking studies under the floodplainspecific management process as outlined in the AIDR Handbook, Managing the Floodplain: A Guide to Best Practice in Flood Risk Management.

This research derives generalised vulnerability functions for a mix of building and land use types. The generalised curves can be utilised at meso or macro level study and are intended to be applied at a resolution of built environment information readily available to floodplain managers.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {emergency management., Floods, land use, risk management, Vulnerability}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Maqsood, T and Dale, K and Mark Edwards and Krishna Nadimpalli} } @article {bnh-5421, title = {Optimising post-disaster recovery interventions in Australia Annual Report 2017-18}, number = {456}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural disasters in Australia are very costly, and often have devastating socio-economic effects on impacted communities.

Despite this, the economic impacts of natural disasters in Australia have often been overlooked in disaster management planning. A substantial problem is the inability to estimate the full economic impact {\textendash} both primary and secondary {\textendash} of natural disasters, considering all the affected sections of the economy.

The project aims to assist the Australian federal and state policymakers in building a more sustainable natural disaster recovery model. It investigates the sector-disaggregated economic effects of a number of natural disasters on affected individuals. Through these real-life case studies, the project helps illustrate how these event{\textemdash}of different types and scales{\textemdash}impact and ripple through communities and the broader economy over time. \ 

}, keywords = {emergency management., mulit-hazard, post-disaster, recovery}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5780, title = {The sensitivity of the empirical mode decomposition and its application on environmental data}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, school = {The University of New South Wales}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is a powerful data analysis method that can be used to extract embedded components within time series and other data. In the context of EMD, these embedded components are called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF). Since its inception in the late 1990s, EMD has been applied in a number of areas, including biomedicine, neuroscience, epidemiology, chemical engineering, finance, atmospheric turbulence, seismology and oceanography. The method is advantageous in that it is able to analyse nonlinear and non-stationary data. Surprisingly, the literature exploring the ability of EMD to analyse data with different types of non-stationarity is relatively sparse. Also, the sensitivities associated with the critical initial steps of the EMD procedure are not well understood. One of the critical steps in determining each of the IMFs involves constructing upper and lower envelopes of the local maxima and minima of the time series. In the original presentation of the EMD methodology, cubic-spline interpolation was used to construct these envelopes. However, there is now a prior reason to support the use of cubic splines, and it is natural to wonder how employing alternative interpolation methods might affect the ultimate outcome of the EMD method.This dissertation is dedicated to providing a more comprehensive understanding ofthe sensitivity of EMD to different interpolation methodologies, and to different types of data non-stationarity. These sensitivities are investigated systematically using synthetic time series data that cover a range of interesting features. In addition,a number of environmental data sets are used to explore how EMD sensitivity can influence the inferences that might be drawn from IMFs extracted using various forms of the EMD method. In this part of the study, temperature, sea level and forest fire danger rating time series are chosen. There is significant interest in the way these particular variables might be changing over various time scales, and how these changes might impact various ecosystems, including human societies. The analyses conducted in this thesis suggest that the robustness and accuracy of EMD is improved when smoothing-spline interpolation is employed as its underlying interpolation method. In particular, Smoothing Ensemble EMD (SEEMD) is introduced, and is shown to out-perform other EMD methods in a number of important contexts. Specifically, SEEMD is shown to be more robust in the presence of noise and is able to extract more meaningful features from the environmental times series. It is also found, however, that all EMD-based methods perform poorly when confronted with time series exhibiting abrupt non-stationarity.

}, keywords = {emergency management., empirical mode decomposition, environmental data, interpolation, sensitivity}, url = {https://www.unsworks.unsw.edu.au/primo-explore/fulldisplay?docid=unsworks_54791\&context=L\&vid=UNSWORKS\&lang=en_US\&search_scope=unsworks_search_scope\&adaptor=Local\%20Search\%20Engine\&tab=default_tab\&query=any,contains,the\%20sensitivity\%20of\%20the\%20empirica}, author = {Mona Ziaeyan Bahri} } @article {bnh-4572, title = {Can major post-event inquiries and reviews contribute to lessons management?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, chapter = {34}, abstract = {

Significant disaster and emergency management events are invariably followed by formal post-event inquiries and reviews. Such reviews identify lessons to improve future capacities and set the agenda for policy and management reform for emergency management organisations. As a result, there is a substantial body of reflections and recommendations gathered across all hazard types and jurisdictions by formal, structured inquiry processes that contribute to lessons management for the emergency sector. However, whether there is any coherence or core lessons emerging for the Australian sector from the totality of postevent inquiries is unknown. The work reported here identifies the recommendations from these inquiries. A meta-analysis of 1336 recommendations made in 55 Australian major post-event reviews and inquiries since 2009 revealed common themes. The recommendations were compiled into a comprehensive database and categorised into 32 themes. The analysis highlighted recurrent themes from recommendations spanning multiple jurisdictions. The study indicates the potential value for Australian and New Zealand emergency management agencies and jurisdictions of using the aggregate data organised as a resource for lessons management.

}, keywords = {commission, communication, emergency management., lessons management, Planning, post-disaster, review, risk}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-can-major-post-event-inquiries-and-reviews-contribute-to-lessons-management/}, author = {Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-4676, title = {Flood levee influences on community preparedness: a paradox?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {5}, chapter = {39}, abstract = {

Flood levees are a commonly used method of flood protection. Previous research has proposed the concept of the {\textquoteleft}levee paradox{\textquoteright} to describe the situation whereby the construction of levees leads to a lowered community awareness of the risks of flooding and increased development in the {\textquoteleft}protected{\textquoteright} area. The consequences of this are the risks of larger losses in less frequent but deeper floods\ when levees overtop or fail. This paper uses the recent history of flooding and levee construction to investigate the {\textquoteleft}levee paradox{\textquoteright} through a study of flood preparedness and floodplain development in Lismore, NSW.

}, keywords = {communities, emergency management., Flood, levee, Preparedness}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jul-2018-flood-levee-influences-on-community-preparedness-a-paradox/}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes} } @article {bnh-4686, title = {Motivations and experiences of sheltering in place during floods: Implications for policy and practice}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {31}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, pages = {7}, chapter = {781}, abstract = {

Whilst much research considers evacuation behaviours during floods and other natural hazard events, and how to motivate greater compliance to evacuation orders, there is little research documenting peoples{\textquoteright} reasons for, and experiences of, sheltering at their home or business during floods. Focusing on the experiences of residents and business owners who sheltered during a major flood event, this study explores the motivations for staying during floods, residents{\textquoteright} practices while sheltering, and the attendant challenges and impacts. Semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire were conducted with residents and business owners in the Richmond, Brunswick and Tweed river catchments in New South Wales in the months following an extensive flood event in 2017. The research identified a culture of sheltering during floods in these communities that is passed down through families and communities. Nuanced personal and locally specific factors influenced decisions to shelter, and official warnings and evacuation orders were often considered inaccurate or too late, or disregarded due to {\textquoteleft}warning fatigue{\textquoteright}. Findings also reveal that sheltering can be physically and psychologically challenging, and often involves actively defending people, property, and possessions from floodwaters. This study highlights the critical importance of context to understanding sheltering decisions, and consequently, the need for nuance in emergency management responses and risk communication. It also shows the importance of understanding what sheltering involves and its impacts, particularly given increasing pressure to urbanise and develop flood plains.

}, keywords = {beaviour, communities, emergency management., Evacuation, Floods, response, risk communication}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918304345}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa and Ashley Avci and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Coates, Lucinda} } @article {bnh-4627, title = {A comparison of the discrete cosine and wavelet transforms for hydrologic model input data reduction}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, abstract = {

The treatment of input data uncertainty in hydrologic models is of crucial importance in the analysis, diagnosis and detection of model structural errors. Data reduction techniques decrease the dimensionality of input data, thus allowing modern parameter estimation algorithms to more efficiently estimate errors associated with input uncertainty and model structure. The discrete cosine transform (DCT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) are used to reduce the dimensionality of observed rainfall time series for the 438\ catchments in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) data set. The rainfall time signals are then reconstructed and compared to the observed hyetographs using standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. The results convincingly demonstrate that the DWT is superior to the DCT in preserving and characterizing the observed rainfall data records. It is recommended that the DWT be used for model input data reduction in hydrology in preference over the DCT.

}, keywords = {communities, emergency management., Flood, hydrological models, wavelet}, doi = {10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017}, url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/3827/2017/hess-21-3827-2017.html}, author = {Ashley Wright and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4459, title = {Disaster in Relation to Attachment, Loss, Grief and Recovery: The Marysville Experience.}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The thesis is a study of the post-2009 Black Saturday bushfire community of Marysville. The central research question asks: {\textquoteleft}How did survivors of the Marysville Black Saturday bushfire experience attachment, loss and grief in the post-fire recovery process?{\textquoteright} This informs two specific sub-questions, which are: {\textquoteleft}What were the experiences of Marysville residents in the aftermath of the fire, particularly regarding their sense of attachment, loss and grief?{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}What can we understand about attachment, loss and grief in disaster recovery from their experiences?{\textquoteright}

To answer these questions the research includes my own autoethnographic story utilising the technique of evocative autoethnography to which is integrated the technique of analytical autoethnography, thereby providing a thorough theoretical base for qualitative research and data collection. In addition to the autoethnographic research, further phenomenological and ethnographic data collection and analysis consisted of 18 formal in-depth interviews, 16 semi-formal interviews and 49 informal interviews (a total of 83 interviews), which accounted for about a third of the Marysville population at that time.

The research also involved extensive literature and document collection and review. Heuristic and naturalistic analyses were used to interpret and make sense of the information. Data collection concluded in late 2013; however, analysis, interpretation and member checking continued throughout the project. Findings emerged as two main themes, replete with examples, or illustrations.\ The two themes are:

1. Attachment: the importance of post-disaster attachment behaviour in relation to people, possessions, pets, place and participation (the five Ps) particularly as related to topophilia and solastalgia.\ 

2. Disempowerment: the post-disaster effect upon individuals and the community when they effectively have the ability to make their own decisions removed from them at both micro and macro levels.

Of central importance in this study is the identification of a post-disaster phenomenon I have conceptualised and named as {\textquoteleft}Post-Disaster Attachment Trauma{\textquoteright} (PDAT). This is a new revelation that describes a disruption to the natural processing of early attachment-related human loss and grief responses, particularly regarding initial appraisal and searching behaviours. It results in further trauma which may delay and complicate grieving and recovery for individuals and community alike.

When combined, the findings related to post-disaster attachment behaviour, topophilia, disempowerment, solastalgia and Post-Disaster Attachment Trauma make for a powerful description and compelling explanation of what many Marysville bushfire survivors have experienced.

The research findings make their contribution to knowledge by discovering and explaining elements of individual and collective post-disaster experiences, particularly the role of attachment behaviour in recovery. The findings have implications for individual and collective resilience, recovery and mental health. They will benefit policy makers, therapists, government agencies and non-government organisations in the way they assist post-disaster individuals and communities in the future.

This work is important because perhaps the lessons learned and knowledge gained will benefit future disaster survivors worldwide so they may not have to experience much of what the people of Marysville have struggled with since Black Saturday, 2009.

}, keywords = {Black Saturday, communities, emergency management., fire impact, fire severity}, url = {https://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/eserv/rmit:162288/Barton.pdf}, author = {David Barton} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4679, title = {Seismic assessment of reinforced concrete walls in Australia}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, school = {University of Melbourne}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Some non-ductile reinforced concrete walls in buildings were observed to perform poorly in the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, with most of the lives lost from the event caused by the collapse of buildings that relied on these structural elements for lateral support. Reinforced concrete (RC) walls are widely used throughout the Australian building stock as the primary lateral support elements. It is possible that some of these structural elements would perform poorly in a very rare earthquake due to the low standard of detailing that is currently required in Australia, as well as the low earthquake return period that the Building Code of Australia stipulates for their design. The aim of this research has been to assess the seismic performance of reinforced concrete structural walls, both rectangular and C-shaped, in Australia, a region of low-to-moderate seismicity. The current Australian Standard for Earthquake Actions, AS 1170.4:2007, stipulates earthquake hazard values that are based on a seismic hazard map that is over two decades old. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was conducted for most of the capital cities in Australia using the AUS5 model to provide a more accurate prediction of seismic hazard in Australia. The results indicate that for some cities, such as Melbourne, the response spectrum is expected to be higher for large return periods in comparison to the design spectra derived using AS 1170.4:2007. Furthermore, a site response study was conducted using equivalent linear analyses to investigate the amplification of the soil response as classified in AS 1170.4:2007 using a range of ground motions that would be expected in Australia. The primary conclusions from the study showed that there can be a large dependency of the soil amplification on the intensity of the earthquake ground motions for the softer soil classes. Moreover, the low intensity ground motions resulted in a higher spectral shape factor for soil class Be and Ce in comparison to factors derived from the current AS 1170.4:2007. An investigation was undertaken to find the displacement capacity of rectangular lightly reinforced and unconfined walls using a finite element modelling (FEM) program, with emphasis on finding the equivalent plastic hinge length. A Secondary Cracking Model (SCM) was formulated, which is a simple, mathematical model that has the potential to predict if a RC wall has a sufficient longitudinal reinforcement ratio to enable {\textquotedblleft}secondary cracking{\textquotedblright} to occur. The SCM has been validated by comparison with results from the FEM analyses. Equivalent plastic hinge length equations were derived for the rectangular walls that were observed to form secondary cracking and a single, primary crack, and this can be used to predict the displacement capacity of these walls. This estimate of the displacement capacity assumes that the inelastic rotation that occurs over the inelastic region at the base of the wall can be modelled using an equivalent plastic hinge length over which the curvature is assumed to be a constant value. These estimates of the equivalent plastic hinge length are more appropriate for RC structural walls commonly found in Australia due to the parameters used in deriving them (e.g. mechanical properties of steel, longitudinal reinforcement ratio). Moreover, some expressions for the equivalent plastic hinge length that have derived by previous researchers were found to be inappropriate for the walls analysed in this research; these were particularly inaccurate for walls that do not have sufficient longitudinal reinforcement to force secondary cracks to form. The new expressions provide better estimates of the displacement capacity of lightly reinforced and unconfined walls when compared with recent experimental observations. One of the most widely used and popular cross-sections used in structural design of RC walls is the C-shaped section. There is a paucity of information available on the inelastic behaviour of such elements, and virtually no experimental data exists on non-rectangular concrete walls with inferior details commonly found in regions of low-to-moderate seismicity. An extensive number of nonlinear pushover analyses have been conducted based on FEM to investigate the seismic behaviour of C-shaped walls with detailing commonly found in Australia. Based on the FEM results, the SCM, that has been developed for rectangular walls, was found to be able to predict the potential of a single-crack forming in the walls. The direction of loading and mode of bending was found to be particularly important for the seismic performance of these walls. A non-ductile failure was observed for the majority of the walls investigated due to crushing of the unconfined concrete at the ends of the flanges in the governing direction of loading. Further analyses were conducted in the FEM program but with confined boundary ends to emphasise the importance of such structural detailing in allowing some plastic behaviour to be achieved for the governing direction of loading. The equivalent plastic hinge lengths derived from the extensive number of FEM analyses correlated poorly in comparison to the estimates from a number of expressions that exist in the literature, including a recently developed equation specifically for C-shaped walls. Therefore, equivalent plastic hinge lengths were derived from these results and for each direction of loading. A program has been written in MATLAB to derive vulnerability functions for low-rise, mid-rise and high-rise buildings in Australia that use structural walls as their lateral force-resisting system. The city of Melbourne was used as a template for conducting the analyses, and a dataset of thousands of buildings obtained from the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) and Census of Land Use and Employment (CLUE) databases was included in the assessment. The displacement capacity of each of the buildings was estimated using a moment-curvature analysis followed by a plastic hinge analysis. A range of artificial earthquakes from GENQKE and real earthquakes from the PEER ground motion database on {\textquotedblleft}weathered bedrock{\textquotedblright} conditions were obtained. These ground motions were subsequently used in equivalent linear analyses using the program SHAKE2000 to find the site response at the surface of different soil columns from shear wave velocity profiles taken predominantly from sites around Melbourne. The National Regolith Site Classification Map was used to estimate the soil conditions underlying each of the building sites. The acceleration and displacement response spectra resulting from these ground motions were used to represent the seismic demand for different site conditions in the capacity spectrum method and to ultimately estimate the vulnerability of the buildings. Thus, vulnerability functions were derived from the results.

}, keywords = {AS3600; buildings, earthquake, emergency management., Intraplate, low-to-moderate}, url = {http://hdl.handle.net/11343/192443 }, author = {Ryan D. Hoult} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4632, title = {Fighting fires and fatigue: sleep, physical activity, and physical task performance}, year = {2015}, month = {05/2015}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Wildfires are any uncontrolled, non-structural burning in grass, scrub, bush, or forests. Wildfires can have a debilitating impact on communities in North America, South America, Southern Europe, and Australia, with the loss of property, livestock, and human life. The financial burden of wildfire is immense. For example, the average annual cost of wildfire in Australia is $77 million (AUD). Globally, the frequency, duration, and severity of wildfires is predicted to escalate, due, at least in part, to climate change resulting in hotter and drier summers. The increase in wildfire activity will result in more frequent and/or longer deployments which may exacerbate the cognitive and physical demands placed on wildland firefighting personnel.

}, keywords = {bushfires, emergency management., fatigue, firefighters, fires, Sleep}, url = {http://dro.deakin.edu.au/eserv/DU:30079447/vincent-fightingfires-2015A.pdf}, author = {Grace Vincent} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4630, title = {Simulated Self-Paced Wildfire Suppression Work in Different Thermal Conditions}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, pages = {236}, school = {Deakin University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There is a substantial body of research investigating the influence of ambient temperature on sport and exercise performance. However, research investigating the effect of heat on the performance of manual-handling work, as performed by personnel across many physically demanding occupations, is relatively scarce. Wildland firefighters are commonly tasked with performing manual-handling work under conditions of high ambient heat, and will likely do so more frequently under a continually warming climate. Heat-related illness also currently represents a substantial threat to the safety and wellbeing of wildland firefighters when on duty. Understanding the role of ambient heat in moderating firefighter performance may be important for wildland fire agencies in forecasting the effectiveness of their workforce. Further, quantifying the physiological response of firefighters working in such conditions may assist in preventing heat-related incidents on the fireground. Therefore, assessing the influence of hot ambient conditions on the work output of wildland firefighters, as well as the magnitude of their thermoregulatory and cardiovascular response, was the primary focus of this thesis. Due to the inherent variability of wildfire behaviour, and the subsequent difficulty in measuring work performance in an operational setting, the current program of research utilised high-fidelity work simulations to assess changes in work output in response to ambient heat. Study 1 investigated the self-selected work output of wildland firefighters in both temperate (18{\textdegree}C) and hot (32{\textdegree}C) ambient conditions over a six-hour simulated shift, and indices of thermal stress (e.g., core temperature) and exertion (e.g., heart rate) were measured. Study 2 reported the cumulative effect of ambient heat on the work performance and physiological response of wildland firefighters performing three consecutive days of simulated wildfire suppression. Finally, Study 3 measured the self-selected work output and thermoregulatory responses of wildland firefighters performing a raking task in both 45{\textdegree}C and 18{\textdegree}C conditions. The adaptive behaviours of firefighters (e.g., in ad-libitum fluid intake) were also documented during all studies. Collectively, the results from these studies provides novel insight into the operational effectiveness of wildland firefighters under a range of ambient conditions, and their concurrent physiological and behavioural responses.\ 

}, keywords = {Decision making, emergency management., exposure, firefighter, fires, temperature}, url = {http://dro.deakin.edu.au/eserv/DU:30082763/larsen-simulatedself-2015A.pdf}, author = {Larsen, Brianna} }