@article {bnh-8370, title = {Vehicle-related causes of flood fatalities}, journal = {Natural Hazard Science}, year = {2023}, month = {02/2023}, abstract = {

Vehicle-related flood incidents represent a leading cause of flood fatalities, as well as resulting in an additional health system and emergency services burden. A large proportion of these deaths are preventable and represent an area of collaboration across a range of fields, including emergency services, disaster preparedness, floodplain management, public health, and road safety. The nature of the risk is exacerbated by increases in the frequency and severity of flood events in a warming climate and further urbanization.

The nature of vehicle-related flood incidents is multidimensional, consisting of flood hazard, behavioral, vehicle, and road-related factors. Equally, strategies required to reduce the incidence of vehicles entering floodwater must be multidimensional, giving consideration to behavioral, regulatory, structural, and emergency response measures. Such an approach requires the involvement of a diverse range of stakeholders.

}, keywords = {behavior, climate, Drowning, Flood, prevention, regulation, social cognition}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.438}, url = {https://oxfordre.com/naturalhazardscience/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.001.0001/acrefore-9780199389407-e-438?rskey=eQeJXc}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Kyra Hamilton and Grantley Smith and Amy Peden} } @article {bnh-8130, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings {\textendash} final project report}, number = {691}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations made during the 2011 and 2013 floods in Australia, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. Considerable costs were sustained by all levels of government and property owners to effect damage repair and enable community recovery.

A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. While the vulnerability and associated flood risk for newer construction is being addressed (moderated) by new standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock remains. This vulnerability contributes disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (CRC) project entitled Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings addresses this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains. The project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the flood risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian houses and complements parallel CRC projects for earthquake and severe wind.

The project has developed a building classification schema to categorise Australian residential buildings into a range of typical storey types. Mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally have been reviewed. A floodproofing matrix has been developed to assess appropriate strategies for the selected storey types. All appropriate strategies have been costed for the selected storey types through the engagement of quantity surveying specialists. Vulnerability curves have been developed featuring reduced losses achieved through appropriate mitigation strategies for the five selected storey types.

Furthermore, selected building materials/systems have been tested to ascertain their resilience to floodwater exposure. These tests were aimed at addressing knowledge gaps in the areas of strength and durability of building materials during immersion.

A research utilisation project with NFRAG, AIDR and FMA as key stakeholders commenced in 2018. The project has developed generalised vulnerability functions for use by floodplain managers who may not have detailed exposure information.

In concluding the project, cost benefit analyses of mitigation options were conducted at three levels of resolution. These have added to cost versus benefit work already completed by the project team for Launceston as a utilisation project. The results are an evidence base to inform decision making by government and property owners on the mitigation of flood risk by providing information on the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies.

This report describes the research methods, project activities, outcomes and their potential for utilisation.

}, keywords = {buildings, Flood, mitigation, strategy}, issn = {691}, author = {Dale, K and Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-7824, title = {Flood risk communication - final project report}, number = {645}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The context for the research

The\ focus of this research project was informed by the findings of earlier BNHCRC research that investigated human fatalities from natural disasters (Haynes et al., 2017). This project focused on the two behaviours most frequently associated with flood fatalities:

  1. Driving into floodwater in a motor vehicle, and
  2. Recreating in floodwater.

Although there were pockets of information and more detailed knowledge about these behaviours held in some jurisdictions, there was no national picture of either the details surrounding vehicle-related flood fatalities or the incidence of these two general behaviours and the detailed contexts in which the public enters floodwater. Therefore, by studying the general public more comprehensively, there was an opportunity to quantify behaviours and identify the potential challenges and additional levers for communicating flood risk, as well as enabling greater insight into differences across Australia (both within and across jurisdictions).

In addition, the information that was already known about behaviour in floodwater related solely to the general public. Emergency services, in particular State Emergency Services (SES) personnel, were previously identified as an at-risk group for entering floodwater and flood fatalities.

In the context of established approaches to the investigation of risk perception, comprehension, and risk-taking behaviour, SES personnel represent an {\textquoteleft}expert{\textquoteright} group. This meant they could also provide insights about risk perception and risk communication when studied and compared to the {\textquoteleft}lay public{\textquoteright} (expert-novice paradigm), for example enabling identification of differences in use of words/ language, conceptualisation of {\textquoteleft}flood{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}flooded roads{\textquoteright}, and identification and use of environmental cues when judging flood risk.\ 

Finally, as a risk group there is an organisational imperative to study the behaviour of SES personnel entering floodwater when on/off duty. This research supports the evaluation, understanding, and provides opportunities to assist in the mitigation of a range of organisational risks, including

This project commenced in July 2017 and comprised broad two phases:

  1. Understanding behaviour in and around floodwater, and
  2. Collating flood risk communications and co-developing Community Service Announcements (CSAs) for flood for use in National broadcasting by the ABC.

Project strategy for research and collaboration

The research strategy involved a suite of research studies, and employed mixed qualitative and quantitative methods, including experimental research, questionnaires, and in-depth interviews employing a mental models approach to ensure the research problem is well understood, the needs of those at risk could be met, and knowledge is co-produced with end-users and community.

Consultation and collaboration with key stakeholders and various end-users were key aspects of the overall research approach and helped to determine the research foci through the lifetime of the project. Following this collaborative approach, the research was responsive to stakeholder contexts. This enabled the team to take advantage of opportunities to explore some new topics in greater depth (e.g., SES behaviours around floodwater), but has also meant there were some delays and changes to the planned research activities (e.g., being unable to progress some approaches and outputs due to COVID-19). As a consequence, some of the resulting outputs and projects differ to the outputs outlined at the start of the project.

Project overview - extending what is known and addressing the gaps

Previous research has established that floods in Australia are a significant, and often preventable, cause of death, and this research has provided some useful insights to the risk perceptions and planned behaviour among the public in relation to driving and floodwater (Fitzgerald, Du, Jamal, Clark, \& Hou, 2010; Hamilton, Peden, Pearson, \& Hagger, 2016; Haynes et al., 2017).

This project builds on existing knowledge in several important ways:

Overall, these various studies highlight some of the complexity and challenges in flood risk communication and flood risk assessment and factors that need to be considered when developing communication materials. The detailed nature of the data collected also provides insights to how interventions and flood risk communication and engagement work can be targeted.

A snapshot of key findings

As the project\ comprised a number of studies it also generated a substantial number of findings and insights. These have been condensed into a series of practitioner-focused Research into Practice Briefs. In addition, the BNHCRC Communications Team has developed a short series of videos to showcase some key research findings and augment these Briefs.

A snapshot of key findings across the various studies is provided below:

Areas for research utilisation

This\ project provides an in-depth understanding of how the public and emergency service professionals (SES) behave around, and understand the risks of, floodwater. The translation of these findings into utilisation and impact is an ongoing process that will continue beyond the formal end of the research.\ 

There are four main areas of research utilisation that are being pursued:

In addition\ to the above areas of potential and emerging utilisation, the project team has worked actively with end-users and a range of additional stakeholders to co-produce project outputs, including conference presentations (Taylor, Wiebusch, Tofa, Haynes; AFAC 2019) and co-authored peer-reviewed articles (Taylor, Tofa, Haynes, McLaren, Readman, Ferguson, Rundle, Rose, 2019).

Research Capacity Building

The\ research project team has also supported research capacity building through the mentoring and inclusion of students in research activities, including a successful PhD completion (Ahmed, 2019), five Masters of Organisational Psychology students, two psychology honours students, and a number of short-term research and engagement placements. The project funding has supported early career researchers (ECRs) and has enabled these ECRs and students to progress through co-authored peer-reviewed publications and utilisation outputs, i.e., Research into Practice Briefs.

}, keywords = {communication, communities, Flood, risk}, issn = {645}, author = {Mel Taylor and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes} } @article {bnh-7817, title = {The lived experience of disadvantaged communities affected by the 2015 South Indian Floods: Implications for disaster risk reduction dialogue}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, abstract = {

Poverty and discrimination compound vulnerability to disasters. Yet, people who experience these are some of the least involved groups in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) dialogue and research. This study aims to fill that gap by narrating the lived experience of underprivileged flood-affected communities. We conducted in-depth interviews (N=48) with community members (n=36) and staff members of collaborating non-governmental organisations (n=12). We also conducted focus group discussions with staff members of the same NGOs. The results describe how systemic issues entrenched with socio-economic and cultural factors impact a community{\textquoteright}s ability to prepare for floods. These communities received no warning or timely evacuation messages, and perceived the received support as inadequate and unfair. Communities recovered through their resourcefulness and thoughtfulness. They resented the government for its lack of action throughout the disaster cycle. Priorities for future efforts involve actively engaging these vulnerable groups and tailoring DRR activities for them.

}, keywords = {Discrimination, DRR, Flood, Poverty, Social Vulnerability, Vulnerability}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102046}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420921000121}, author = {Revathi Krishna and Kevin Ronan and Caroline Spencer and Eva Alisic} } @article {bnh-8285, title = {Mind the gap: Contrasting operational and behavior-oriented flood warnings}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2021}, month = {11/2021}, abstract = {

During flood events, warnings issued by emergency service agencies serve to communicate risk and guide community behavior. Yet research shows that while warnings convey operational details, they may not always be understood and appropriately actioned in a timely manner by the public. Such maladaptive behavior can place multiple parties at risk of injury and fatality. Few studies empirically consider and compare the effectiveness of traditional agency-designed operational warnings with other designs such as behavior-oriented warnings. The former typically contain technical and operational detail while the latter provide immediate priority and greater emphasis on translating the situation into specific behavioral actions to be undertaken by the public. Using operational versus newly developed behavior-oriented warnings from New South Wales State Emergency Service in Australia, a total of 774 community members rated each type of scaled warning and their likelihood to engage in adaptive and maladaptive behaviors following exposure to warnings designed to convey one of five levels of an unfolding flooding scenario from its beginning to conclusion ({\textquoteleft}Prepare for flooding{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Be ready to evacuate{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Evacuate{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Too late to evacuate{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Safe to return{\textquoteright}). Findings showed positive response to both types of warnings, with behavior-oriented warnings offering greater benefit for perception factors (e.g., risk and comprehension) and adaptive behavioral intentions.

}, keywords = {Behavior-oriented, community, Flood, risk communication, Warnings}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102685}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420921006464}, author = {Amisha Mehta and Dominique Greer and Clinton Weeks and Lisa Schuster and Scott Murray and Paula Dootson and Andrew Richards} } @article {bnh-7964, title = {NSW Mid North Coast flood impact research}, number = {659}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

On March 18, 2021, an extreme rainfall event kicked off, resulting in severe flooding in the Mid North Coast of New South Wales. 18,000 people were evacuated, including 1,000 flood rescues. Flooding also impacted the North Coast, Hunter, Western Sydney, South Coast, Central West, and North West Regions of NSW. Flooding was also experienced in Southeast Queensland. The focus of this briefing is on flood impacts experienced on the NSW Mid North Coast.

Overview

On March 24, Risk Frontiers, with assistance from the BNHCRC, deployed a survey team to the NSW Mid North Coast region to observe and report on significant flooding in the area. Areas surveyed included, Bulahdelah, Taree, Wingham, Port Macquarie, North Haven, Laurieton, and Dunbogan. In addition to measuring flood depths and recording noteworthy damages to belongings and infrastructure, the team spoke with residents, business owners, and rescue personnel (Rural Fire Service, NSW Fire and Rescue, and State Emergency Services). Discussions covered evacuation, emergency response and communication, community resilience, and the insurability of their homes.

A couple of key issues emerged during the investigation. The first was insurance affordability in areas that were clearly at risk of flooding. Some residents and business owners we spoke with cited quotes for policies covering flood ranging from $5k - $30k per year. Our survey indicates that the full extent of damage will not be evident in claims data due to the low rates of insurance as a lot of individuals had chosen to remain uninsured due to the prohibitive costs quoted for them. Disaster mitigation needs to be considered in these areas to assist with insurance affordability.

Another common concern expressed was the lack of warning and mitigative action. For example, some residents had not considered sandbagging. Residents claimed they were either misinformed or warned too late, and then felt aspects of the process to recover were unclear.

}, keywords = {Flood, Impact, Mid North Coast, New South Wales, quick response, research}, issn = {659}, author = {Steve George and Salom{\'e} Hussein and R Crompton and Thomas Mortlock} } @article {bnh-7196, title = {Benefit versus cost analysis and optimal cost effective mitigation strategies}, number = {598}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This report forms part of the output to a research project entitled {\textquoteleft}Cost effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquoteright} within the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations during the recent flooding in Australia in 2011, 2013 and 2015, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. The BNHCRC project aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains.

Previous project steps towards achieving this goal have included the development of a building schema to categorise the Australian residential building stock and a literature review of mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally. The review categorised strategies into elevation, relocation, dry floodproofing, wet floodproofing and the use of flood barriers. Five typical storey types which represent the most common residential buildings in Australia have been selected to evaluate the above mentioned mitigation strategies.

\ Each mitigation strategy has been costed through engagement of a professional quantity surveyor and the application of the mitigation strategies and resultant reduction in susceptibility of damage has been quantified in the form of vulnerability models for mitigated storey types.

This report presents an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of flood mitigation strategies to residential buildings in Launceston Tasmania through a benefit versus cost analysis. The benefit versus cost analysis requires assessing loss both pre-and post-mitigation for a range of flood likelihoods with the difference being the benefit. The costs of the applied mitigation are then compared to the benefits with a benefit versus cost ratio of greater than 1.0 indicating an economically viable decision.

In the research presented here the mitigation options were typically assessed as cost-effective when considering damage to the rersidential buildings with the probable maximum flood extent.\  An important modelling assumption was to assume that the existing levee system that does provide a level of flood protection to Launceston was not in place (i.e. the City was unprotected). The results here are also only for one catchment and its behavior and also for the building stock in Launceston. The use of temporary flood barriers around the area with the highest flood hazard was the most cost-effective measure.

Work will continue with cost versus benefit analyses planned for other locations with different building stock configuarations and different catchment type behaviours. The result will be an evidence base to inform decision making by government and property owners on the mitigation of flood risk. The evidence base will feature information on the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies and optimal solutions for different cases of building and catchment types.

}, keywords = {benefit, buildings, cost analysis, Flood, mitigation, strategies}, issn = {598}, author = {Maqsood, T and Dale, K and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-7694, title = {Improving flood forecast skill using remote sensing data {\textendash} final project report}, number = {633}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most damaging natural disasters in Australia. Over the last 40 years, the average annual cost of floods was estimated to be $377 million per year. The 2010-2011 floods in Brisbane and South-East Queensland alone resulted in 35 confirmed deaths and $2.38 billion damage. The floods in June 2016 in Queensland, New South Wales, and Tasmania, resulted in five confirmed casualties. The Insurance Council of Australia stated on June 7, 2016 that about 14,500 claims totalling $56 million have been lodged from across the country. The floods in March-April 2017 in Queensland and New South Wales caused five confirmed casualties. Furthermore, according to the Insurance Council of Australia, 823,560 Queensland homes are still unprepared for flooding (March 11, 2018).\  The floods in North Queensland in January-February 2019 resulted in four confirmed fatalities and an estimated total direct cost of 1.3 billion dollars. In order to limit the personal and economic damage caused by floods, operational water and emergency managers rely on flood forecasting systems.

These systems consist of a hydrologic and a hydraulic model to predict the extent and level of floods. Using observed and predicted rainfall, the hydrologic model calculates the amount of water that is flowing through the river network, while the hydraulic model computes water depth and velocity in the river and in the floodplain. In recent decades, the accuracy and reliability of these flood forecasting systems has significantly improved. However, it remains difficult to provide accurate and precise flood warnings. This is a result of errors and/or uncertainties in model structures, model parameters, input data, and/or meteorological forcing (mainly rainfall). The hypothesis of this project is that remote sensing data can be used to improve modelled flood forecast skill and value.

More specifically, this project developed optimal ways to constrain and update the hydrologic model using remotely sensed soil moisture data. The significance of soil moisture is its direct impact on the partitioning of rainfall into surface runoff and infiltration. Second, this project proposed an algorithm for the monitoring of floods under vegetation. Finally, we investigated optimal ways to use remote sensing-derived inundation extent and level to implement and calibrate the hydraulic model. \ The results of this project enable improved predictions of flow depth, extent and velocity in the floodplain.

}, keywords = {Flood, forecast, remote sensing data}, issn = {633}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright and Yuan Li} } @article {bnh-7480, title = {Structural design of floodways under extreme flood loading}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment}, volume = {11}, year = {2020}, month = {05/2020}, abstract = {

Purpose

Current methods for floodway design are predominately based on hydrological and hydraulic design principles. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a finite element methods approach for the inclusion of a simplified structural design method into floodway design procedures.

Design/methodology/approach

This research uses a three-dimensional finite element method to investigate numerically the different parameters, geometric configurations and loading combinations which cause floodway vulnerability during extreme flood events. The worst-case loading scenario is then used as the basis for design from which several structural design charts are deduced. These charts enable design bending moments and shear forces to be extracted and the cross-sectional area of steel and concrete to be designed in accordance with the relevant design codes for strength, serviceability and durability.

Findings

It was discovered that the analysed floodway structure is most vulnerable when impacted by a 4-tonne boulder, a 900 mm cut-off wall depth and with no downstream rock protection. Design charts were created, forming a simplified structural design process to strengthen the current hydraulic design approach provided in current floodway design guidelines. This developed procedure is demonstrated through application with an example floodway structural design.

Originality/value

The deduced structural design process will ensure floodway structures have adequate structural resilience, aiding in reduced maintenance and periods of unserviceability in the wake of extreme flood events.

}, keywords = {bridge failure, Flood, floodways, impact load, Infrastructure, resilience}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2019-0072}, url = {https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2019-0072/full/html?skipTracking=true}, author = {Isaac Greene and Weena Lokuge and Warna Karunasena} } @article {bnh-7473, title = {Vehicle-related flood fatalities in Australia, 2001{\textendash}2017}, journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management}, volume = {13}, year = {2020}, month = {04/2020}, abstract = {

This study analyses the circumstances of vehicle-related flood fatalities between 2001 and 2017, in Australia. The research identified 96 deaths from 74 incidents during this period. The aim of this analysis is to understand the demographic, spatial and temporal patterns, and the situational conditions in which those (n\ = 96) deaths have occurred. This is important for informing efficient and strategic risk reduction strategies to reduce vehicle related deaths and injuries in floodwater. Data were accessed from the Australian National Coronial Information System (NCIS), which includes witness and police statements, forensic documents, and detailed coronial findings. Analysis was conducted in two phases. In phase one, data were coded and categorised according to a range of factors previously identified as significant in vehicle-related flood fatalities internationally. In phase two, a detailed analysis was conducted on 11 selected incidents for which there were complete sets of records. This detailed analysis provides insight into the multifaceted nature of fatal vehicle-related flood fatality incidents. The overall results reveal that, for drivers, middle-aged and elderly males are over-represented in the fatality statistics. As passengers, young women and children are vulnerable. The study also identified deep floodwater with high flow contributes more to vehicle immersion, and the presence of alcohol and drugs, leading to impaired responses, reduces the chance of survival for the vehicle occupants.

}, keywords = {driver, drowning fatalities, Flood, natural hazard, passenger vehicles}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12616}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jfr3.12616}, author = {Mozumdar Arifa Ahmed and Katharine Haynes and Mel Taylor} } @article {bnh-5831, title = {Building resilience through flood risk communication annual report 2018-2019}, number = {509}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project commenced in July 2017 and comprises two phases:

  1. Understanding behaviour in and around floodwater, and
  2. Evaluating flood risk communication materials and developing guidelines.

This project is based on the findings of earlier BNHCRC research that investigated human fatalities from natural disasters (Haynes et al., 2017). This project focuses on the two behaviours most frequently associated with flood fatalities:

  1. Driving into floodwater in a motor vehicle, and
  2. Recreating in floodwater.

The focus is on the at-risk groups identified from this earlier research including emergency services personnel, younger and older male drivers, and children and young adults who play in floodwater (Haynes et al., 2017).

The year 2 activities that have been undertaken include:

Work is now underway to transition to Phase 2 activities and to maximise project utilisation opportunities.

}, keywords = {communication, emergency management., Flood, resilience, risk, risk mitigation}, issn = {509}, author = {Mel Taylor and Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa} } @article {bnh-5720, title = {Challenges, Opportunities, and Pitfalls for Global Coupled Hydrologic-Hydraulic Modeling of Floods}, journal = {Water Resources Research}, volume = {55}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Flood modeling at the regional to global scale is a key requirement for equitable emergency and land management. Coupled hydrological-hydraulic models are at the core of flood forecasting and risk assessment models. Nevertheless, each model is subject to uncertainties from different sources (e.g., model structure, parameters, and inputs). Understanding how uncertainties propagate through the modeling cascade is essential to invest in data collection, increase flood modeling accuracy, and comprehensively communicate modeling results to end users. This study used a numerical experiment to quantify the propagation of errors when coupling hydrological and hydraulic models for multiyear flood event modeling in a large basin, with large morphological and hydrological variability. A coupled modeling chain consisting of the hydrological model Hydrologiska Byr{\r a}ns Vattenbalansavdelning and the hydraulic model LISFLOOD-FP was used for the prediction of floodplain inundation in the Murray Darling Basin (Australia), from 2006 to 2012. The impacts of discrepancies between simulated and measured flow hydrographs on the predicted inundation patterns were analyzed by moving from small upstream catchments to large lowland catchments. The numerical experiment was able to identify areas requiring tailored modeling solutions or data collection. Moreover, this study highlighted the high sensitivity of inundation volume and extent prediction to uncertainties in flood peak values and explored challenges in time-continuous modeling. Accurate flood peak predictions, knowledge of critical morphological features, and an event-based modeling approach were outlined as pragmatic solutions for more accurate prediction of large-scale spatiotemporal patterns of flood dynamics, particularly in the presence of low-accuracy elevation data.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, land management, modelling}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024289}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018WR024289}, author = {Stefania Grimaldi and Guy Schumann and Ashkan Shokri and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-5485, title = {Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development For Flood Prone Buildings: Flood Damage Models For Floodplain Management Workshop}, number = {473}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on the proceedings and outcomes of a flood vulnerability workshop held at RMIT University in Melbourne on 14 June 2018. The workshop was convened as part of a research utilisation project under the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project entitled {\textquoteright}Costeffective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquoteright}. Key workshop aims were to finalise the project scope with key stakeholders, establish a Project Steering and identify case study communities for consideration. The research utilisation project entails working with a variety of stakeholders with the aim of translating detailed flood vulnerability information into practical guidance for flood risk managers. It involves developing and testing a number of resolution options (from asset specific vulnerability assessments to more generalised methods) in a series of case studies. The workshop structure featured presentations and discussion following a logical flow from context setting, scope refinement and consensus through to governance and next steps. The key workshop aims described above were achieved and a series of {\textquoteleft}next steps{\textquoteright} were identified and documented in this report.

}, keywords = {building risk, cost-effective, Flood, flood risk, floodplain}, author = {Dale, K and Maqsood, T and Mark Edwards and Krishna Nadimpalli} } @article {bnh-5743, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood proof buildings - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {496}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations made during the 2011 and 2013 floods in Australia, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. Considerable costs were sustained by all levels of government and property owners to effect damage repair and enable community recovery.

A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. The vulnerability and associated flood risk is being reduced for newer construction by adopting new standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, however, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock remains. This vulnerability contributes disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquotedblright} aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains. The project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the flood risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian houses and complements parallel BNHCRC projects for earthquake and severe wind.

}, keywords = {building risk, cost-effective, Flood, flood prone}, issn = {496}, author = {Dale, K and Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner} } @mastersthesis {bnh-7361, title = {Damage modelling of reinforced concrete bridge piers under flood and log impact}, volume = {Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)}, year = {2019}, month = {11/2019}, school = {RMIT University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australia has suffered from the loss of life and extreme damage to infrastructure from natural hazards such as bushfire, flood etc. Floods are Australia{\textquestiondown}s costliest disasters on bridges, one of the most important components of highway and railway transportation network. Therefore, safety and serviceability of bridges have always been a great concern to the practice and profession of civil engineering. The resilience of critical infrastructures such as roads and bridges is vital in evacuation support activities for during, before and after disaster response and recovery. In addition, bridges have a significant impact on the resilience of road infrastructure and the damage to bridges could significantly increase the vulnerability of the community served by the transportation infrastructure. Therefore, understanding the factors which affect the resilience of bridge structures, is extremely important to ensure the design specifications, as well as maintenance regimes for bridge structures. Furthermore, considering the resilience and vulnerability of structures is vital during, before and after disasters. Roads Corporation of Victoria (VicRoads) has identified that older structures consisting of U-slab decks are vulnerable to flood loading. The proposed project will focus on understanding damages to U-slab bridges exposed to flood loading.\ \ \ 
The vulnerable element of the case study U-slab bridges has been identified using a simplified analysis using Space-Gass. This analysis indicated that the superstructure of a U slab structure is quite robust under flood loading and slender piers can be vulnerable. Water flow pressure on the piers has been studied using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CDF) methodology to examine the pressure distribution on piers with two different cross-sectional shapes. This work has demonstrated that the pressure distribution on a bridge pier under flood loading can be simulated using a uniformly distributed load. Further, it is noted that the magnitude of the flood-induced force is significantly affected by the geometry of the pier cross-section.
Considering the concrete plasticity damage (CPD) modelling, nonlinear analysis has been conducted to evaluate the damage behaviour of the piers, and a simple damage index based on energy absorbed, which can be derived from a standard finite element modelling output, has been introduced. Based on that different damage levels of a bridge pier under flood loading damage indices have been derived.
Based on the review of practice and the literature review the log or moving object impact is likely to be occurring during flood loading. Therefore, a comprehensive investigation has been conducted to understand the structural response of a moving object impact, i.e., log impact. Using a validated model, the general relationship between different aspects of the structural response has been studied. Moreover, the bridge damage response during log impact has been studied, and the numerical results have been compared to provisions of different design standards. This study has concluded that the current provisions of design standards on the log or any moving object impact on bridges under flood loading could be unconservative and will require a systematic study considering the varying mass of impacts and the geometry of bridge piers.
}, keywords = {Bridge, engineering, Flood, modelling}, url = {https://researchrepository.rmit.edu.au/discovery/fulldisplay?docid=alma9921892810901341\&context=L\&vid=61RMIT_INST:ResearchRepository\&lang=en\&search_scope=ResearchETD\&adaptor=Local\%20Search\%20Engine\&tab=Research\&query=any,contains,Maryam\%20Nasim\&offset=0}, author = {Maryam Nasim} } @article {bnh-5929, title = {Economics of natural hazards annual report 2018-2019}, number = {512}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Our project aims to provide information on the economic, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards (tangible and intangible), in order to help hazard managers in their decision making. We investigate the impacts of hazard mitigation on intangible (non-market) values, to shed light on the real (total) costs and benefits of natural hazards.

Our main focus is on developing tools and materials that will provide natural hazards managers with information on the value of mitigation and how intangible (non-market) values affect the costs and benefits of mitigation activities.
Our project will have 4 key outcomes:

  1. Provide an online platform for the intangible values database (called the Value Tool for Natural Hazards). The tool will be updated and maintained beyond the project so that managers can easily integrate intangible values in their analyses.
  2. Fill major knowledge gaps identified in the literature on intangible values that are affected by the management of natural hazards and improve the value tool with this new knowledge.
  3. Develop a Quick Economic Analysis Tool for the evaluation of the (tangible and intangible) costs and benefits of mitigation options that enables managers to conduct economic analyses in weeks rather than months.
  4. Create a Free Online Course on the application of economics to the assessment of natural hazard management options.

This year, we have progressed in the 4 outcomes outlined above:

  1. A website has been created for the Value Tool. Both the database and the guidelines can now be downloaded from http://valuetoolnaturalhazards.com. As per the agreement between UWA and BNHCRC, the tool will be freely accessible to end-users and external users. The website also includes the relevant disclaimer information and instructions that users of the tool must agree to comply with.
  2. A survey instrument has been designed and road-tested in a focus group for the original non-market valuation study. The next step in this process will be to test the survey in the Shire of York (WA), where we will estimate non-market values associated with cultural heritage and mental health.
  3. The draft (Beta) version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) has been completed. QEAT is currently being improved to include an easy-to-use sensitivity analysis, to be able to perform the analysis of several management options concurrently and to include a summary dashboard where all results are summarised in an easy-to-read manner. These additions are key aspects that our end-users have mentioned in the past as important to include in a tool such as this one. The Tool now needs to be validated with case studies.
  4. Equipment for creating the online videos is being purchased (e.g. green screen for background, microphone and tripod for computer). Filming of the videos will commence in July 2019.

The utilisation outputs from our project this year involved the development and distribution of tools that help natural hazard managers integration intangible (non-market) values in their decision making. The Value Tool for Natural Hazards and the accompanying guidelines are now available online and can be easily downloaded by end-users of the BNHCRC or other organisations. The Beta version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) is in the process of being improved to include key aspects that were highlighted by end-users as important to include in a tool as this one.

This year there were 4 publications from the project: 3 peer-reviewed and one non-peer reviewed (see Project Publications 2018-2019 section below).

}, keywords = {Bushfire, cost-effective, cyclone, earthquake, economics, Emergency management, Flood, Natural hazards, risk management}, issn = {512}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-5476, title = {Flash flood fatalities in NSW, VIC, ACT and South East QLD from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017}, number = {470}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In terms of lives lost, floods are second only to heatwaves (Coates, 1996; Coates et al 2014), and are one of the top three natural hazards in terms of cost and damage caused, disrupting the functioning of businesses and communities due to\ \ \  building\  \ and\  \ infrastructure\  \ damage.\  \ In\  \ terms\  \ of\  \ reducing\  \ human casualties, \ flash \ floods \ pose \ a \ unique \ challenge \ to \ emergency \ responders and emergency management. Consideration must be given to the efficacy of public education campaigns and warnings, the relative risks occupants face inside and outside the dwelling and the behaviour of individuals during flood events.

The current report builds on that carried out by Risk Frontiers for the New South Wales \ State \ Emergency\  Service \ [Haynes \ et \ al, \ 2009], \ which \ examined \ the fatality and injury record for Australian flash flood events from 1950 to 2008. It also continues the work done for the floods component of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre (BNHCRC) project, {\textquotedblleft}An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters in Australia{\textquotedblright} [see Haynes et al, 2016]. The current research focuses on the circumstances surrounding fatalities resulting from flash flood events in New South Wales (NSW) from 1 January 2000 to 30 June 2017. To enable comparisons to be made, a few other jurisdictions were examined. The aim is to identify those most at risk and \ any \ trends \ in \ recent \ flash \ flood \ events \ in \ order\  \ to \ inform \ policy development by the NSW SES.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, flood management, health and safety, risk management}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and Andrew Gissing and Katharine Haynes and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith and Deirdre Radford} } @article {bnh-5744, title = {Improving flood forecast using remote sensing data - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {497}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are among the most damaging natural disasters in Australia. Over the last 40 years, the average annual cost of floods was estimated to be $377 million per year. The 2010-2011 floods in Brisbane and South-East Queensland alone resulted in 35 confirmed deaths and $2.38 billion damage. The floods in June 2016 in Queenslad, New South Wales, and Tasmania, resulted in five confirmed casualties. The Insurance Council of Australia stated on June 7, 2016 that about 14,500 claims totaling $56 million have been lodged from across the country. The floods in March-April 2017 in Queensland and New South Wales caused five confirmed casualties. Furthermore, according to the Insurance Council of Australia, 823,560 Queensland homes are still unprepared for flooding (March 11, 2018). The floods in North Queensland in January-February 2019 resulted in four confirmed fatalities and an estimated total direct cost of 1.3 billion dollars. In order to limit the personal and economic damage caused by floods, operational water and emergency managers heavily rely on flood forecasting systems. Further improvements to current flood forecasting systems are likely to reduce the personal and economic damage caused by floods.

}, keywords = {Flood, flood forecast, improving forecast, remote sensing data}, author = {Valentijn Pauwels and Jeffrey Walker and Stefania Grimaldi and Ashley Wright and Yuan Li} } @conference {bnh-6399, title = {Improving flood forecasting skill using remotely sensed data}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This paper presents research undertaken to develop and implement a coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model which utilises remotely sensed data to improve flood forecasting skill in rural catchments subject to fluvial flooding. The discussion of literature reviews and subsequent knowledge gaps aids in the identification of key obstacles towards implementation. Collected data and modelling algorithms developed as part of the project are described before an overview of the progress towards implementation is given. To maximise the potential utilisation of this research end-users have been involved in providing data, setting up case studies, and defining research priorities and methods.

}, keywords = {catchments, Flood, Forecasting, hydraulic, hydrological, modelling}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Ashley Wright and Stefania Grimaldi and Yuan Li and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-5542, title = {Influence of road characteristics on flood fatalities in Australia}, journal = {Environmental Hazards}, volume = {18 }, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

An analysis of published flood fatalities in Australia occurring between 1960 and 2015 revealed that 49\% of 229 flood fatalities were vehicle related. After reviewing previous work on vehicle-related flood fatalities, this study examines attributes of roadways that may have influenced driver decisions to enter floodwaters and the survivability of people in vehicles that did so and concludes by discussing policy implications. Characteristics most frequently present were small upstream catchment length that may influence the rate of rise of floodwaters; the absence of roadside barricades; deep flooding immediately adjacent to the roadway; the absence of lighting; dipping road grades that lead floodwaters to increase once a vehicle enters them; the lack of curb and guttering and the inability of motorists to easily turn around. Each of these factors were observed in at least 50\% of the cases studied and provide a risk-based means of assessing other sites vulnerable to flooding but where fatalities have not been observed to date.\ 

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, flood fatalities, risk management, road safety}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609407}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2019.1609407}, author = {Andrew Gissing and S. Opper and Matalena Tofa and Coates, Lucinda and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-5042, title = {Driving into floodwater: A systematic review of risks, behaviour and mitigation}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {31}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, pages = {10}, chapter = {953}, abstract = {

This systematic review summarises the findings of research focused on the risks associated with driving into floodwater. The review aims to compare and document the magnitude of the problem internationally; identifying the risk factors; exploring the application of theories and presence of theoretical models to explain people{\textquoteright}s risky behaviour; and documenting the intervention strategies utilised or proposed. Literature were searched from a number of databases (e.g. PsycInfo, ScienceDirect, Informit) for publication dates to 31 August 2017, then assessed based on their titles, abstracts and full texts and finally 24 articles were selected. This review compares flood fatality data from four countries (Australia, United States, Greece, and Sweden), groups identified risk factors from these selected studies into seven categories, and proposes a holistic integrated intervention model. The results of the review indicate that studies were predominantly conducted in Australia (10 studies) and USA (7 studies). People{\textquoteright}s decisions to drive into, or turn back from, floodwater are identified as a consequence of both their risk perception and the combined impact of all other factors (e.g. individual, social, environmental etc.) that interdependently contribute to shape decision-making, The theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) was the only theory that has been utilised within the literature to understand drivers{\textquoteright} willingness to take risks. Improving people{\textquoteright}s decision-making through educational initiatives, advanced structural mechanisms, regulating existing edicts, and regularly evaluating the effectiveness of current strategies are identified as the best approaches to addressing the challenges in this area. Findings suggest that future studies require data and analysis from a larger range of countries, more comparative analyses within and between countries, an exploration of the relationship between risk factors and their relative level of influence and a greater application of behavioural and decision making theories.

}, keywords = {Behavioural theories, Driving, Drowning, Fatalities, Flood, Risk factors, Risk mitigation measures, Risk perception, Vehicles}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.07.007}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918300323}, author = {Mel Taylor and Katharine Haynes and Mozumdar Arifa Ahmed} } @article {bnh-4676, title = {Flood levee influences on community preparedness: a paradox?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {07/2018}, pages = {5}, chapter = {39}, abstract = {

Flood levees are a commonly used method of flood protection. Previous research has proposed the concept of the {\textquoteleft}levee paradox{\textquoteright} to describe the situation whereby the construction of levees leads to a lowered community awareness of the risks of flooding and increased development in the {\textquoteleft}protected{\textquoteright} area. The consequences of this are the risks of larger losses in less frequent but deeper floods\ when levees overtop or fail. This paper uses the recent history of flooding and levee construction to investigate the {\textquoteleft}levee paradox{\textquoteright} through a study of flood preparedness and floodplain development in Lismore, NSW.

}, keywords = {communities, emergency management., Flood, levee, Preparedness}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jul-2018-flood-levee-influences-on-community-preparedness-a-paradox/}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes} } @article {bnh-6643, title = {Floodway inspection and maintenance framework}, number = {540}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Bridges, culverts, and floodways are vital road infrastructures for the operation of a road network. Their application may vary based on geographic and demographic features of the territory. Floodways are common in rural road networks as they provide economic and environmental friendly solutions over bridges and culverts. Floodways play a significant role in the economy of a country by connecting regional communities, farmlands and agricultural areas to city centers. For example, 48\% of total agricultural production in Australia in 2006 had been produced from regional council areas, those covering only about 6.9\% of Australia{\textquoteright}s population, 11\% of total Australian land mass and 24\% of roads in length [1]. Floodways are common in most of these rural road networks and, hence, play a vital role to distribute agricultural and farming products to highly populated city centers. Therefore, healthy operational levels of floodways are of paramount importance to maintain the continuous supply of essential commodities and the economic balance of Australia.

Floodways are different from bridges and culverts in the design and operational aspects. By definition, floodways are sections of roads which have been designed to be overtopped by floodwater during relatively low average recurrence interval (ARI) floods and are expected to return to fully serviceable level after the flood water recedes [2]. Although, floodways are designed to withstand at low flood levels, extreme natural disasters can damage these vital road infrastructures as evident from the 2011 and 2013 Queensland flood events. 58\% of floodway structures in the Lockyer Valley Regional Council (LVRC) area in Queensland, Australia, were damaged during the 2013 Queensland flood event leading to operational failures in rural road networks. Floodway damage leads to isolating regional communities and hindering the supply of agricultural products to other regions. In a post-disaster period, the long-term impacts on the community and the economy of the country depend on the speed of reestablishing the fully operational level of those floodways.

}, keywords = {Flood, Floodway, framework, maintenance}, issn = {540}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @article {bnh-4627, title = {A comparison of the discrete cosine and wavelet transforms for hydrologic model input data reduction}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, year = {2017}, month = {02/2017}, abstract = {

The treatment of input data uncertainty in hydrologic models is of crucial importance in the analysis, diagnosis and detection of model structural errors. Data reduction techniques decrease the dimensionality of input data, thus allowing modern parameter estimation algorithms to more efficiently estimate errors associated with input uncertainty and model structure. The discrete cosine transform (DCT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) are used to reduce the dimensionality of observed rainfall time series for the 438\ catchments in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) data set. The rainfall time signals are then reconstructed and compared to the observed hyetographs using standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. The results convincingly demonstrate that the DWT is superior to the DCT in preserving and characterizing the observed rainfall data records. It is recommended that the DWT be used for model input data reduction in hydrology in preference over the DCT.

}, keywords = {communities, emergency management., Flood, hydrological models, wavelet}, doi = {10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017}, url = {https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/3827/2017/hess-21-3827-2017.html}, author = {Ashley Wright and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @mastersthesis {bnh-4629, title = {Estimating areal rainfall time series using input data reduction, model inversion, and data assimilation}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {146}, school = {Monash University}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Floods are devastating natural hazards that can have severe socio-economic impacts and lead to a loss of life. Consequently, the key driver for this research is to provide techniques that will lead to an increase in flood forecast skill. As fluvial floods are a direct result of rainfall, detailed knowledge of uncertainties in rainfall observations provides a fundamental foundation for improving both rainfall and flood forecast skill. As the understanding of uncertainties present in rainfall time series is developed, so too will the confidence in rainfall forecasts, and short- and long-term streamflow forecasts. For a description of rainfall uncertainty to be complete it must take into account uncertainty when rainfall was not observed, thus allowing, model structural errors to be correctly identified, analyzed, and treated. Therefore the focus of this thesis is to develop a robust methodology to estimate rainfall time series and its uncertainty such that it is consistent with both streamflow and soil moisture observations. To effectively estimate rainfall time series, a method to reduce hydrological input data dimensionality was identified. The effective reduction of hydrological input data dimensionality allows modern parameter estimation algorithms to simultaneously estimate rainfall time series and model parameters. Due to their wide-spread use as model input data reduction techniques in other fields, the discrete cosine transform (DCT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) were used, for comparative purposes, to reduce the dimensionality of observed rainfall time series for the 438 catchments in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) data set. Once the time series were reduced to a small number of parameters, the rainfall time series were reconstructed for comparison with the observed hyetographs. The rainfall time signals are then reconstructed and compared to the observed hyetographs using standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. Analysis of the results demonstrate that, when compared to the DCT, the DWT is superior at preserving both short- and long-term rainfall patterns. Second, the DWT was used to reduce the dimensionality of the input rainfall time x series for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The DREAM(ZS) sampling algorithm, in conjunction with a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow, was then used to estimate the input rainfall time series. Model parameters and rainfall time series were simultaneously estimated. The inclusion of rainfall in the estimation process improved the root mean square error (RMSE) of streamflow simulations by a factor of up to 1.78. This was achieved while estimating an entire rainfall time series, inclusive of days when none was observed. Last, rainfall time series for the catchment of Warwick were estimated using three different rainfall-runoff models. Using the rainfall time series and model parameter estimates, remotely sensed soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth observing system (AMSR-E) satellites were assimilated into each of the models using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Through analysis of the innovations from the observed and simulated soil moisture it was found that the combination of model choice and remotely sensed soil moisture product had a significant impact on the quality of rainfall estimated. When compared to streamflow simulations obtained via the sole estimation of model parameters, all models that jointly estimated rainfall time series and model parameters produced superior streamflow estimates. Rainfall estimates obtained using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model were the most realistic. When the SMOS remotely sensed soil moisture product was assimilated into the SAC-SMA, innovations that indicated errors are of a Gaussian nature were obtained. Further, streamflow simulations obtained from the SAC-SMA had the best RMSE. The research presented in this thesis developed a methodology that can be used to estimate and evaluate rainfall estimates obtained using model input data reduction, model inversion, and data assimilation techniques. These rainfall estimates can be used to condition rainfall forecasts and consequently improve flood forecast skill.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Flood, hydrology, modelling., rainfall}, url = {http://users.monash.edu.au/~jpwalker/theses/AshleyWright.pdf}, author = {Ashley Wright} } @article {bnh-4626, title = {Estimating rainfall time series and model parameter distributions using model data reduction and inversion techniques}, journal = {AGU}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, abstract = {

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise, and timely flood forecasts, there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated within an entire rainfall time series, even when rainfall was not observed. The estimation of an entire rainfall time series and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of entire rainfall input time series to be considered when estimating model parameters, and provides the ability to improve rainfall estimates from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate entire rainfall time series from streamflow records are unable to adequately invert complex nonlinear hydrologic systems. This study aims to explore the use of wavelets in the estimation of rainfall time series from streamflow records. Using the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia, it is shown that model parameter distributions and an entire rainfall time series can be estimated. Including rainfall in the estimation process improves streamflow simulations by a factor of up to 1.78. This is achieved while estimating an entire rainfall time series, inclusive of days when none was observed. It is shown that the choice of wavelet can have a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. Combining the use of a likelihood function that considers rainfall and streamflow errors with the use of the DWT as a model data reduction technique allows the joint inference of hydrologic model parameters along with rainfall.

}, keywords = {catchments, communities., Emergency management, Flood, rainfall, streamflow}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017WR020442}, author = {Ashley Wright and Jeffrey Walker and Valentijn Pauwels} } @article {bnh-2359, title = {Better use and management of levees: reducing flood risk in a changing climate}, journal = {Environmental Reviews}, volume = {23}, year = {2015}, month = {02/2015}, abstract = {

Many nations rely on dykes and levees to mitigate flood risk. However, a myriad of problems has prompted views that levees are ultimately maladaptive and should be used as a measure of last resort. This leads to questions not only about the place of levees in future flood risk management, but also whether anything can be done to reduce their impacts. A detailed review of flood events from Australia, China, the Netherlands, and the USA was used to develop a case study for each country. Case studies present existing levee problems, future flood threats, and national strategies to address them. These were used as a basis to analyse the transferability of adaptive flood approaches. While many countries are attempting to restore floodplain storage, thereby reducing their reliance on levees, others are increasing their investment in levee construction. This review explores factors that affect the transferability of adaptive approaches, including issues, such as problem recognition, affordability, and program delivery. It was found that countries vary in their ability to recognise levee problems, and the level at which decisions are made influences the likelihood of adaptive solutions being adopted. Analysis suggests that federal systems face particular challenges and their capacity to adopt adaptive approaches may be impaired if institutional barriers are not addressed. Regardless of the overall approach to manage flood risk, the experiences of all case study countries offer some broadly applicable lessons for improving the use and management of levees, reducing their adverse impacts, and improving the integration of natural flood mitigation.

}, keywords = {Flood, Policy}, doi = {10.1139/er-2014-0060}, url = {http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/eprint/JuAnSyApuH5P9DqD9WWD/full$\#$.VjrE2LcrKUk}, author = {Caroline Wenger} } @conference {bnh-7446, title = {Reviving people{\textquoteright}s trust in Bamboo technology: A case-study of Orlaha settlement reconstruction in Bihar, after the 2008 Kosi floods}, booktitle = {World Bamboo Congress}, year = {2015}, month = {09/2015}, address = {Damyang, Korea}, abstract = {

There is a growing body of literature suggesting significance of technical and social guidance during post-disaster housing reconstruction projects. Social process during reconstruction includes considerations of community participation or owner-driven approaches. Technical process includes considerations for achieving a balance between the world-views of beneficiaries and facilitators in terms of multi-hazard safe house form, material, technology, and its cultural, environmental and financial appropriateness. Research suggests that it is the approaches/ process to reconstruction implementation, on which, relies the long-term effectiveness of housing reconstruction projects at imparting disaster-resilience to at-risk communities (Barenstein \& Iyengar 2010; Jha et al. January 2010; Lizarralde et al. 2010; Lyons, Schilderman \& Boano 2010; Schilderman \& Lyons 2011). However, empirical evidence suggests that despite the benefits of and socio-technical support by civil society agencies for re-adoption of traditional materials and technologies for multi-hazard safe housing reconstruction, it often proves challenging. This paper focuses on the technological and social process of reconstruction in the settlement of Orlaha in Triveniganj block in Supaul district of the Indian state of Bihar, post 2008 Kosi floods. The paper presents preliminary observations from two field-works that were conducted during November-December months in 2012 (Stage-1) and 2014 (Stage-2). The paper examines whether the process of housing reconstruction enabled reviving household{\textquoteright}s faith in bamboo {\textendash} a local traditional material for achieving multi-hazard resistance as well as met their aspirations? The research asks questions such as; what is the condition of housing, 5 years since completion of reconstruction? How satisfied are households with their housing? What are the reasons for successful uptake or failure? The paper examines whether and how a convergence can be achieved between technology and social perception. To this end, the paper{\textquoteright}s findings indicate that post-disaster context offers a small window of opportunity during which local households are open for changing their perceptions for achieving multi-hazard resistant housing, provided the technical assistance is accompanied with social assistance.

}, keywords = {community, Flood, Reconstruction, recover, resilience}, url = {http://toc.proceedings.com/28028webtoc.pdf}, author = {Mittul Vahanvati and Munir Vahanvati} } @article {bnh-1950, title = {Vulnerability of Floodways under Extreme Flood Events}, journal = {Natural Hazards Review}, volume = {17}, year = {2015}, month = {13/07/2015}, abstract = {

Floodways are commonly used in rural road networks due to the economic and environmental benefits offered as a low-cost and practical road crossing in flood-prone areas. They are designed with provision for submergence so that water flows over with minimum impediment to flow, at a probability given design flood. The floodway design process is traditionally governed by hydraulic aspects rather than structural aspects. Hydrological condition, availability of material, and familiarity of construction techniques are significant when selecting the floodway type. Nevertheless, extreme conditions can cause significant damage to floodways, as was evident from the 2011 and 2013 Queensland flood events, during which 58\% of floodways in the Lockyer Valley Regional Council (LVRC) area in Queensland, Australia, which is the case study area of this paper, were damaged, causing huge economic lost at council and national level. This created a new track in research and development activities to assess vulnerability and to find methods for improving the resilience of floodways during extreme flood events. In line with this, the present study evaluates local design guidelines and damaged floodways to assess failure modes and severity of damage using a damage index (DI) method.

}, keywords = {Damage index, Damage severity, Design guidelines, Flood, Floodway, Vulnerability}, issn = {1527-6996}, doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000194}, url = {http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000194}, author = {Buddhi Wahalathantri and Weena Lokuge and Karu Karunasena and Sujeeva Setunge} }