@article {bnh-8322, title = {Recognising and measuring competency in natural hazard preparation: A preparedness competency index}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {73}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, abstract = {

With weather-related natural hazards increasing in number and severity, it is more important than ever for communities to prepare for all types of hazards. However, the literature does not reveal what such preparedness looks like {\textendash} how much preparation is enough and, conversely, how low levels of preparation can be easily recognised by emergency agencies. This study maps Australian emergency agency understanding of competencies that are needed by individuals and communities for effective preparation.

Using in-depth semi-structured interviews of 30 emergency agency, local council and not-for-profit organisation staff from all Australian states, participants identified a range of community and individual features that they had seen in un-prepared and well-prepared communities and which they believed were key competencies for protective action. These competencies were then mapped against participants{\textquoteright} perceptions of five different levels of preparation, resulting in a Preparedness Competency Index that allows agencies to benchmark preparation in communities, as well as to recognise when lack of preparation competency leaves groups vulnerable.

}, keywords = {community, Competency, Natural hazards, Preparedness, protective action}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102882}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420922001017?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Barbara Ryan and Kim Johnston and Maureen Taylor} } @article {bnh-8119, title = {Australian Exposure Information Platform enhancement project}, number = {682}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

The Australian Exposure Information Platform (AEIP) has been utilised for purposes of disaster preparedness, response and recovery since its release in 2018. The AEIP is currently the only service of its kind that can provide the Emergency Management (EM) sector with nationally consistent exposure information, 24/7.

GA and end-users have documented several areas in which the AEIP web mapping application (WMA) can be improved upon. Firstly, the user interface and functionality were improved through the addition of tools allowing users to create Exposure Reports for known geographies (e.g., Local Government Areas), thus allowing persons without spatial expertise greater flexibility when using the WMA.

Secondly, Exposure Reports could initially only be obtained through individual requests and there was limited functionality embedded within the WMA to give end-users the ability to submit multiple reports. Users can now request up to five different exposure report requests in one submission.

Furthermore, while the WMA excels in supplying nationally consistent exposure information, in the form of an exposure report, user{\textquoteright}s feedback suggests that there is a need to understand what is exposed in more of a dynamic way to keep paces with evolving and changing information requirements. \ Hence a complimentary service, accessing the same data, via a Dynamic Exposure Dashboard (DED) for emergency management situational awareness was devleoped.

The AEIP Enhancement Project{\textquoteright}s objectives are threefold:

  1. Enhance the AEIP WMA to increase accessibility and usability
  2. Develop an AEIP DED to provide Emergency responders with a situational awareness tool.
  3. Engage stakeholders to understand their use of AEIP information and to guide the enhancements suggested for the WMA, and the features and functionality of the DED

Method

GA{\textquoteright}s Landscape Information Section (LIS) have approached the issues within AEIP in three interconnected strategies: (1) Web Map Enhancement Strategy, (2) DED Strategy, and (3) Stakeholder Engagement Strategy.

The Web Map Enhancement Strategy involved the project team engaging GA{\textquoteright}s Digital Science and Information Section (DiSI) to outline the proposed changes to the existing web mapping functionality. DiSI created the changes in a non-production environment where they could be tested without affecting the current production environment. The non-production environment underwent iterative user testing within GA to ensure any changes are fit for production. DiSI then implement the changes to the production environment. Throughout the process, key stakeholders were engaged as part of a feedback cycle into the Stakeholder Engagement Strategy.

The DED Strategy was broken down into numerous technical tasks. Firstly, GA{\textquoteright}s enterprise Geographic Information Systems (eGIS) team set up the appropriate environment within the organisations ArcGIS Online Account (AGOL). Secondly, the project team developed a project management plan (PMP) to ensure that all the metadata requirements were met and that all project information was maintained and recorded within GA{\textquoteright}s electronic catalog system (eCat) Thirdly, the project team iteratively develop the DED and liaised with stakeholders through to the beta product release in June 2021.

The Stakeholder Engagement Strategy iteratively looped back into the aforementioned strategies to ensure that the project teams{\textquoteright} actions were the result of stakeholder input. Firstly, the project team defined the stakeholders through sampling AEIPs current user base. Secondly, stakeholders were engaged through a mixture of qualitative (video conferencing and in-person meetings/showcases) and quantitative (on-line survey) methods. Thirdly, feedback and responses were implemented into the development of either Web Map Enhancement Strategy or DED Strategy. Lastly, stakeholders were reengaged through qualitative means to assess the project team{\textquoteright}s development actions.

Research findings

The project team had mixed responses surrounding the engagement of AEIP stakeholders. Qualitative means of engagement gave a higher response rate with more actionable feedback. Engagements through quantitative methods, such as the online survey proved less effective, with 13 responses from a potential 700-person audience. Many or the respondents are members of the Emergency Management Spatial Information Network (EMSINA) or work in state emergency services {\textendash} primarily agencies that already use AEIP products and understand the value it adds to their business or operational needs.

A key finding amongst stakeholders was that the AEIP data is not used uniformly; the range of uses include planning purposes, at-a-glance information during hazard events, comparative analysis, integration into other products/documents, estimates, and recovery and planning. Consistent across many of the stakeholders was the predilection to use on the ground information relayed from first responders over AEIP data, and that Emergency Service Agencies (ESA) are also hesitant in using AEIP data as they preferred, and were more familiar with, data within their own and often-bespoke platforms.\ 

Research findings also suggest that a significant barrier to ESAs using AEIP services is lack of awareness of the product, rather than the product not being fit for purpose. Other findings from stakeholders surrounding the WMA and Exposure Report are that health-related data would be a worthwhile inclusion (such as the number of beds in hospitals, rooms in respite centres, the number of general practitioners, chemists, and other medical related information). This largely a response to the need for infrastructure information in relation to COVID-19.

Research findings showed that ESAs primarily view the DED as a situational awareness tool for use in situation and planning rooms. As a result, stakeholders value the ability to add their own spatial data to the DED, include the DED within their own (ESRI based) portals and hubs, and the ability to access the data behind the DED for use in their own applications. Further findings from engagements with stakeholders indicated that concerns over data accuracy and currency exist. As this finding largely relates to AEIP data, it reemphasises the need for stakeholders to be made aware of AEIP, its data and capabilities.

Utilisation

Since its launch in 2018 usage of the AEIP WMA has been steadily increasing month on month. Most uses come from state-based agencies using Application Program Interface (API) keys which allow AEIP information to be integrated into their applications. Usage peaks during both short-term events (Tropical Cyclone Seroja, 2021) and medium-term events (Black Summer), where the service has proven reliable and stable. Usage outside of events is primarily for preparedness and planning purposes.

In May of 2021, the federal government announced the Australian Climate Service (ACS), a collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology, the CSIRO, ABS and Geoscience Australia to help better anticipate, manage and adapt to climate impacts now and in the future. NEXIS and the AEIP have been identified as important components of the ACS and the next steps for the AEIP will be aimed at integrating revised data into all AEIP services; WMA, DED and GA{\textquoteright}s data download services.

Providing DED users the ability to add their own data into the mapping pane of the DED is also an important next step as this would provide a richer user experience and increase the capability of the DED as a situational awareness tool during disasters.

Positioning the AEIP in the landscape of emergency management tools and products is an on-going task. Investigating options to integrate the WMA and DED into a single user-experience that can be accessed from the same application, preferably via on online hub or portal, is seen as an important step in marketing and maintaining the longevity of the AEIP in the emergency management sector.

The project team had mixed responses surrounding the engagement of AEIP stakeholders. Qualitative means of engagement gave a higher response rate with more actionable feedback. Engagements through quantitative methods, such as the online survey proved less effective, with 13 responses from a potential 700-person audience. Many or the respondents are members of the Emergency Management Spatial Information Network (EMSINA) or work in state emergency services {\textendash} primarily agencies that already use AEIP products and understand the value it adds to their business or operational needs.

A key finding amongst stakeholders was that the AEIP data is not used uniformly; the range of uses include planning purposes, at-a-glance information during hazard events, comparative analysis, integration into other products/documents, estimates, and recovery and planning. Consistent across many of the stakeholders was the predilection to use on the ground information relayed from first responders over AEIP data, and that Emergency Service Agencies (ESA) are also hesitant in using AEIP data as they preferred, and were more familiar with, data within their own and often-bespoke platforms.

Research findings also suggest that a significant barrier to ESAs using AEIP services is lack of awareness of the product, rather than the product not being fit for purpose. Other findings from stakeholders surrounding the WMA and Exposure Report are that health-related data would be a worthwhile inclusion (such as the number of beds in hospitals, rooms in respite centres, the number of general practitioners, chemists, and other medical related information). This largely a response to the need for infrastructure information in relation to COVID-19.

Research findings showed that ESAs primarily view the DED as a situational awareness tool for use in situation and planning rooms. As a result, stakeholders value the ability to add their own spatial data to the DED, include the DED within their own (ESRI based) portals and hubs, and the ability to access the data behind the DED for use in their own applications. Further findings from engagements with stakeholders indicated that concerns over data accuracy and currency exist. As this finding largely relates to AEIP data, it reemphasises the need for stakeholders to be made aware of AEIP, its data and capabilities.

}, keywords = {AEIP, enhancement, exposure, Natural hazards, utilisation}, issn = {682}, author = {Con Charalambou and Mark Dunford and Jake Bradley} } @article {bnh-8120, title = {Economics of natural hazards - final project report}, number = {666}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The key aim of our project was to provide evidence on the economic, social, and environmental impacts of natural hazards, in order to help hazard managers make better decisions about the allocation of resources for the mitigation of natural hazards impacts. Using the tools and materials we have created in this project, our end-users will be better equipped to estimate the tangible (market) and intangible (non-market) impacts of natural hazards and assess how mitigation investments may reduce those impacts.

With this aim in mind, our main focus has been the development of tools and materials that make it easier for natural hazards managers to estimate the value of mitigation, integrate intangible (non-market) values in economic analyses of mitigation, and evaluate the difference it makes to include non-market values. Our goal has always been to provide managers with the tools they need to be able to make better decisions and have the evidence to back up their decisions.

Our project delivered 5 key outcomes:

  1. We launched an online platform for the Value Tool for Natural Hazards (a searchable database of the best available non-market value estimates relevant to natural hazards).
  2. We conducted a non-market valuation study that filled a major knowledge gap identified in the non-market values literature (i.e. the values of cultural heritage, social disruption and mental health, and how these are affected by natural hazards) and updated the Value Tool with the data from this study.
  3. We developed the Economic Analysis Screening Tool (EAST) for the evaluation of the (market and non-market) costs and benefits of mitigation options.
  4. We created a Free Online Video Course on the economics of natural hazards, using drawings and simple examples to explain key economic concepts and how they are applied to evaluate different mitigation options.
  5. We conducted an online training course on how to use economics in natural hazards management and delivered it to 4 different groups of end-user managers and practitioners.

All outcomes of the project had a utilisation focus and were developed in conjunction with our end-users. We spent a significant amount of time understanding our end-users{\textquoteright} challenges in order to create products that can help them make better decisions using economic analysis. We used their feedback to improve the tools developed and make them more accessible.

The work from this project has been published in 4 peer-reviewed publications, 8 conference papers and technical reports, 3 posters presented at conferences, and 4 online resources (see Project Publications section in this report).

}, keywords = {analysis, EAST, economics, mitigation, Natural hazards, natural hazards management, Policy, Value Tool}, issn = {666}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-8016, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road structures: bridges, culvers and floodways under natural hazards {\textendash} final project report}, number = {671}, year = {2021}, month = {05/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Bridges, culverts and floodways are lifeline road structures and part of road networks, which have a significant role in ensuring resilience of a community before, during and after a natural disaster. Historical data demonstrates that the failure of road structures can have catastrophic consequences on a community affected by disaster due to the impact on evacuation and post disaster recovery.\  The main objective of the project is to understand the vulnerability of critical road structures: bridges, culverts and floodways under natural hazards of flood, bush fire and earthquakes. Once the level of vulnerability is established, the evaluation of importance of the structures for prioritization for hardening is important for decision making by road authorities.

The project funded by the BNH CRC addressed the above gap in knowledge through a comprehensive research program undertaken in collaboration with three research partners and six end user partners. In the first stage of the project, major failure scenarios and the consequences of failure were identified as a precursor for a focused research program on vulnerability modelling and prioritization of road structures under natural hazards. The research conducted included assessment of vulnerability of road bridges under flood, bush fire and earthquakes and floodways and culverts under flood. Further, three approaches were used to identify the consequences of failure of road structures under natural hazards: economic impact on the closure of structures on the community, prioritization of structures using analytical techniques and post disaster social, economic and environmental impacts of failure of road structures.

Major findings of the research include identification of the levels of hazard exposure which could lead to failure of structures and the other parameters affecting failure. Further, methods of modeling road structures under different loading regimes has been developed with case studies of typical structures. New design approaches for building back better have been proposed for floodway structures based on parametric analysis of typical types of floodways.

Major findings of the analysis of bridges under flood loading include (a) the current design process in the design standards for log and object impact are unconservative and rigorous analysis is recommended (b) when the flood velocity is over 4 m/s and the flood level reaches the soffit of the bridge deck, the failure probability of the bridge decks are very high. (c) particle size near the bridge pier foundations have a significant impact on the scour of bridge piers and placement of irregular shaped crushed rock at river-bed level can reduce the scour failure. Research conducted on impact of bush fires on composite structures indicated that the shear failure of the web of the girders is the major failure mode. Under earthquake loading, a major finding is that in the areas where peak ground acceleration is over 0.08g, girder bridges could have a high failure probability and a risk mitigation strategy is essential.

Three different tools are developed for determining the impact of failure of road structures considering economic as well as social, environmental and economic impacts.

A major utilisation outcome of the project is a resilient floodway design guide, published in collaboration with the Institution of Public Works Engineers Australia (Qld) (IPWEAQ). A utilisation project is currently in progress jointly funded by the IPWEAQ and BNH CRC. The guide has been reviewed by the IPWEAQ and is currently being revised by the researchers to enable uptake by local council Engineers. An asset management and vulnerability modeling tool for bridges has been developed for the DoT Victoria (formerly known as VicRoads) where the bridges prone to significant damage are highlighted in a GIS map of the road network.

There are two different models developed to evaluate the consequences of the failure of road structures: first considering economic impact of detour required and a second model capturing post disaster social environmental and economic impact of failure of road structures. The first tool has been incorporated into the vulnerability modeling GIS platform developed for \ the DoT, Victoria.

In addition to the above deliverables in the BNH CRC project, two subsidiary projects were undertaken to understand the effect of cyclonic events on bridge structures and also resilience of timber bridges under natural disasters.

The research team is working with the end users to socialize the vulnerability modeling and decision-making tools developed to enable optimized decision making to enhance resilience of road structures under natural hazards. This is currently being continued with direct funding from the DoT, Victoria.

}, keywords = {Bridge, critical, culvert, enhancing, Floodway, Natural hazards, resilience, road, structure}, issn = {671}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Priyan Mendis and Karu Karunasena and Kevin Zhang and Dilanthi Amaratunga and Weena Lokuge and Nilupa Herath and Long Shi and Hessam Mohseni and Huu Tran and Kanishka Atapattu} } @article {bnh-7840, title = {Persuasion without policies: The work of reviving Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} fire management in southern Australia}, journal = {Geoforum}, volume = {120}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, pages = {82-92}, abstract = {

Catastrophic and unprecedented wildfires have unfolded across fire-prone landscapes globally over the last three years, with highly publicized loss of human life, property destruction and ecological transformation. Indigenous peoples within many nations have persuasively argued that traditional fire management can enhance existing wildfire mitigation strategies. However, there are considerable barriers to the further incorporation of Indigenous practices into existing wildfire policy. This paper explores the potential of Indigenous fire management to achieve broader institutionalization, emphasizing the social labour involved producing and sustaining intercultural collaboration in bureaucratic contexts. Our focus is southern Australia where Indigenous peoples{\textquoteright} fire management, often termed {\textquoteright}cultural burning{\textquoteright}, has been facilitated by an Indigenous-led social movement and growing state support. We draw on interviews conducted with Aboriginal and white land and hazard management practitioners actively engaged in intercultural fire management collaborations largely occurring on public lands. In the absence of institutional clarity, established networks and accreted experience these practitioners work to generate enthusiasm, stabilise Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} environmental authority and nullify pervasive societal fears surrounding the risk of fire. The case study demonstrates the significance of interpersonal factors in the emergence and maintenance of fraught intercultural collaborations. Despite global optimism, such insights highlight how the revival of Indigenous fire management in nations such as Australia is highly contingent and depends upon routine persuasive labour and fragile intercultural diplomacy.

}, keywords = {collaboration, Environmental management, Indigenous peoples, Natural hazards, Wildfire Settler-colonial}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2021.01.015}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016718521000233}, author = {Will Smith and Timothy Neale and Jessica Weir} } @article {bnh-8131, title = {Towards protective action: effective risk and warning communication during natural hazards {\textendash} final project report}, number = {692}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The release of the National Review of Warnings and Information (Emergency Management Victoria, 2014) triggered the need for a range of evidence-based practice about constructing better natural hazard emergency warning messages. This report showcases a three-year program of end-user driven interdisciplinary research that derived evidence-based insights into risk and warning communication during the response phase of natural hazard emergencies. The research examines existing and modified communication to community members who may be affected by natural hazards. The work outlined in this report builds on our previous CRC project on effective communication in natural hazards.

The first CRC project (2014-2017) focused on the pre-decisional processes of community members and business owners, particularly their exposure to, attention to, and comprehension of warning messages in the response and early recovery phase of multiple hazards. The current project (2017-2020) builds on that knowledge and focuses on how the inputs into the pre-decisional process{\textemdash}environmental cues, social cues, information sources, channel access and preference, warning messages and receiver characteristics{\textemdash}inform protective action during the response phases of natural hazards.

There are two core research aims:

These aims have been achieved through three tailored research packages:

This project employs a multi-method, multi-hazard research design to:

Our research findings have been shared with end-users through the AFAC Warnings Group, invited presentations and consultancies, private meetings, conferences, and workshops, and translated into practice via audits, public information, visual content (e.g., infographics), emergency alert templates, national doctrine, and to support the Australian Warnings System.

}, keywords = {action, communication, Natural hazards, protective, risk, warning}, issn = {692}, author = {Vivienne Tippett and Dominique Greer and Amisha Mehta and Paula Dootson and Lisa Bradley and Sophie Miller and Scott Murray} } @article {bnh-6814, title = {Aboriginal Peoples and the response to the 2019-2020 bushfires}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National University}, address = {Canberra}, abstract = {

Aboriginal people were among those most affected by the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfires in south-eastern Australia. Yet aside from renewed public interest in cultural burning practices, Aboriginal people have received little attention in the post-bushfire response. In this paper, we describe population geography of Aboriginal peoples affected by the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfire season in New South Wales and Victoria, and the geography of Aboriginal legal rights and interests in land across these states. We find that over 84 000 Indigenous people, or one-quarter of the Indigenous population of NSW and Victoria, live in the bushfire-affected area. While Indigenous people comprise nearly 5.4\% of the 1.55 million people living in fire-affected areas, they are only 2.3\% of the total population of NSW and Victoria. Because Indigenous people in the bushfire-affected area have younger population profiles, more than one-tenth of children in the bushfire-affected area are Indigenous, raising the diverse effects of bushfires on infants and children in particular. Aboriginal people also have a variety of distinct and spatially extensive legal rights and interests in land as First Peoples, including across much of the fire-affected area. Presenting a series of quotations from published accounts, we demonstrate that the Aboriginal experience of the 2019{\textendash}2020 bushfires have been different from those of non-Indigenous Australians.

}, keywords = {Aboriginal peoples, bushfires, Emergency management, Natural hazards}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.25911/ 5e7882623186c}, url = {https://caepr.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/aboriginal-peoples-and-response-2019-2020-bushfires}, author = {Bhiamie Williamson and Francis Markham and Jessica Weir} } @article {bnh-7138, title = {The Australian Disaster Resilience Index: a summary}, number = {588.2020}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural hazards, such as bushfires, cyclones, floods, storms, heatwaves, earthquakes and tsunamis, have always occurred and will continue to occur in Australia. These natural hazards frequently intersect with human societies to create natural hazard emergencies that, in turn, cause disasters.

The effects of natural hazards on Australian communities are influenced by a unique combination of social, economic, natural environment, built environment, governance and geographical factors.

Australian communities face increasing losses and disruption from natural hazards, with the total economic cost of natural hazards in Australia averaging $18.2 billion per year between 2006 and 2016 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017). This is expected to almost double by 2030 and to average $33 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). The social impacts of disasters are also substantial. Costs associated with social impacts may persist over a person{\textquoteright}s lifetime and can be greater than the costs of tangible damages (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016).

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of some natural hazard types in Australia (BOM \& CSIRO, 2018). An increasing population, demographic change, widening socio-economic disparity, expensive infrastructure and the location of\  communities in areas of high natural hazard risk also contributes to the potential for increasing losses from natural hazards.

There are two prominent schools of thought about the influence of natural hazards in human societies:

This resilience perspective has been adopted in the Australian Disaster Resilience Index, with the aim of better understanding and assessing the disaster resilience of Australian communities nationwide.

As such, disaster resilience can be understood as a protective characteristic that acts to reduce the effects of, and losses from, natural hazards. Resilience arises from the capacities of social, economic and government systems to prepare for, respond to and recover from a natural hazard event, and to learn, adapt and transform in anticipation of future natural hazard events.

}, keywords = {communities, Disaster risk reduction, emergencies, Emergency, Natural hazards, people, resilience, risk, risk reduction}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-6-4}, issn = {588.2020}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-6977, title = {Australian inquiries into natural hazard events: Recommendations relating to urban planning for natural hazard mitigation (2009-2017)}, number = {571}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on an assessment of major Australian post disaster and emergency event inquiries and reviews from the past 10 years in terms of recommendations relating to the integration of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation.

Findings from this review must be understood in the context of inquiries {\textendash}examinations of events seeking mainly to identify problems and areas for improvement.\  Accordingly, the recommendations do not typically highlight successes or existing strengths, even while these may be well understood and recognised by those involved. Additionally, this report has avoided making detailed assessments of the numbers of various recommendation types, given the uneven distribution of a relatively low number of events. Nonetheless, the emphases upon certain areas and omission of others suggest areas for future improvement.

}, keywords = {events, inquiries, mitigation, Natural hazards, urban planning}, issn = {571}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7466, title = {The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index: a system for assessing the resilience of Australian communities to natural hazards - final project report}, number = {621}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Disaster resilience is a protective characteristic that acts to reduce the effects of, and losses from, natural hazard events. Disaster resilience arises from the capacities of social, economic and government systems to prepare for, respond to and recover from a natural hazard event, and to learn, adapt and transform in anticipation of future natural hazard events. This project developed the Australian Disaster Resilience Index to assess, for the first time, the capacity for disaster resilience in communities across Australia.

Disaster resilience in Australia

The assessment of disaster resilience using the Australian Disaster Resilience Index shows that communities in Australia do not all have the same capacity for disaster resilience. About 52\% of the population live in areas with moderate capacity for disaster resilience, about 32\% in areas with high capacity for disaster resilience and about 16\% in areas with low capacity for disaster resilience. Analysis of the distribution of disaster resilience in Australia revealed:

Australian communities are also affected by various factors which enhance or constrain their capacity for disaster resilience. The particular combination of factors that influence capacity for disaster resilience differs from place to place. This generates a heterogeneous and complex picture of the factors associated with disaster resilience in Australia. Analysis of the distribution of the eight theme sub-indexes revealed:

}, keywords = {adri, assessing, communities, Natural hazards, resilience, system}, issn = {621}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac} } @article {bnh-6568, title = {Barriers and enablers in the long term recovery of communities affected by natural hazards: a review of the literature}, number = {534}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC reviews Australian and international literature on the long term recovery of communities that have been impacted by natural hazards.\  Previous reviews have considered the immediate, short and medium term recovery and to a lesser extent long term recovery.\  However, none have focused upon the barriers and the enablers of effective long term recovery.\  This is the focus of this literature review.

The review addressed three key areas:

1)\ \ \  what does the literature say is {\textquoteleft}long-term{\textquoteright} in disaster recovery and how does that play out in disasters;

2)\ \ \  what has been done well in disaster recovery (i.e. What has been shown to have benefits for community recovery); and,

3)\ \ \  what are the key messages for successful long term disaster recovery?

The approach required a review of literature that documented and discussed the problems that can arise within a recovery phase that can determine the barriers and enablers for effective long term recovery.\  This necessarily includes consideration of the short term recovery efforts as decisions made in the short term inevitably impact upon future outcomes.

The key findings were:

}, keywords = {communities, hazard response, literature review, Natural hazards, recovery}, issn = {534}, author = {Phil Morley and Elaine Barclay and Melissa Parsons} } @article {bnh-6743, title = {Cascading extreme weather beyond our experience: are we ready?}, number = {547}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards\ Management Conference was a little\ different from what you might expect from\ a conference. It started with questions and worked through to a strategic view on\ whether we have the best knowledge to deal\ with the extreme hazards of our future that\ are of a nature and scale beyond our current\ experience.

As natural hazards continue to increase in frequency\ and severity, it is more important than ever to provide\ decision-makers with the evidence, information and\ tools to make the necessary critical decisions. As our\ demographics change, cities expand further into the\ bush and dependence on technology increases, our\ exposure to risk intensifies. The economic, social and\ environmental costs are forecasted to rise in a way that\ is unprecedented and unsustainable. These challenges\ are complex, and we should be wary of quick fix solutions.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC undertakes\ research with a vision that firmly imagines what we can\ do now to improve outcomes in the future. Our research\ explores what is possible and then develops evidence,\ knowledge and tools to help improve outcomes.

But the CRC is not a decision maker. The decision\ makers are governments, response agencies,\ organisations and communities. We all make choices\ and compromises: we make decisions on where to live,\ what to invest in and how prepared to be for the hazards\ we are familiar with and the ones we are yet to face {\textendash} the\ cascading, extreme hazards of our future.

This conference was an opportunity for us to explore the decisions available to us that can be made to reduce\ the impacts of these inevitable natural hazards. We\ drew together a diverse cross-section of industries\ that deal with natural hazards and provided them with\ opportunities to stretch their thinking beyond their\ current experiences. We invited them to contribute to\ the development of pathways\ to take research, knowledge\ and lessons into policy and\ practice.

To navigate the challenges of\ the changing risk profile in\ our region, we must act upon\ the knowledge generated\ through research and through\ the relationships cultivated at\ this conference. We encourage\ decision-makers at all levels\ to make courageous and creative choices to improve\ Australia{\textquoteright}s resilience.

The CRC draws together all of Australia and New\ Zealand{\textquoteright}s fire and emergency service authorities with\ the leading experts across a range of scientific fields\ to explore the causes, consequences and mitigation of\ natural disasters and, ultimately, contribute to a more\ disaster resilient Australia.

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards Management\ Conference was integral to this process and this report\ provides a summary of the discussions to extend our\ collective strategic view into the coming years.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Natural hazards, Planning, scenario}, issn = {547}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-7342, title = {Climate Change Significantly Alters Future Wildfire Mitigation Opportunities in Southeastern Australia}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {47}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, abstract = {

Prescribed burning is used globally to mitigate the risks of wildfires, with severe wildfires increasing in frequency in recent decades. Despite their importance in wildfire management, the nature of future changes to prescribed burn windows under global warming remains uncertain. We use a regional climate projection ensemble to provide a robust spatiotemporal quantification of statistically significant future changes in prescribed burn windows for southeastern Australia. There are significant decreases during months presently used for prescribed burning, that is, in March to May in 2060{\textendash}2079 versus 1990{\textendash}2009 across several temperate regions. Conversely, burn windows show widespread significant increases in June to August, that is, months when burns have rarely occurred historically, and also in spring (September{\textendash}October). Overall, projected changes in temperature and fuel moisture show the most widespread and largest decreases (or increases) in the number of days within their respective ranges suitable for conducting burns. These results support wildfire risk mitigation planning.

}, keywords = {climate modeling, environmental change, Fire weather, Natural hazards, prescribed burns, risk mitigation}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088893}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2020GL088893}, author = {Giovanni Di Virgillio and Jason P. Evans and Hamish Clarke and Jason J. Sharples and Annette Hirsch and Melissa Anne Hart} } @article {bnh-7753, title = {Economic analysis of natural hazard mitigation using the Quick Economic Analysis Tool}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, pages = {48-55}, abstract = {

An effective way to reduce the impacts of natural hazards on communities is by mitigating the risks. However, mitigation requires time and resources, which are usually limited. To use resources effectively, planners and managers are best prepared when they know their options and which of these options provides the best value for money. When there is not enough information, or an analysis would take several months or years to complete, having access to quick economic analyses in weeks rather than months would be very useful. This paper describes a Quick Economic Analysis Tool, developed at the University of Western Australia, to conduct quick analyses. A case study is used of two prescribed burn annual rates and are compared with results of an in-depth analysis of the application of different prescribed burn annual rates over the long-term that took several years to complete. The results from the quick analysis, despite a few differences, were comparable to results from an in-depth analysis and provided enough information to determine the value for money that each prescribed burn annual rate generated. This study showed that the quick analysis tool would allow fire managers to identify options worthy of business cases and to capture the information needed to increase confidence in their decisions.

}, keywords = {economic analysis, economics, Natural hazards, Prescribed burning, risk mitigation}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2020-economic-analysis-of-natural-hazard-mitigation-using-the-quick-economic-analysis-tool/}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers} } @article {bnh-7026, title = {Improved decision support for natural hazard risk reduction {\textendash} annual project report 2018-2019}, number = {583}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There is increasing recognition of the urgency to consider how disaster risk might change into the future, what impacts this is likely to have and, most importantly, what we can do to reduce this risk. There is also increased recognition that in order to achieve this, we need to adopt a holistic approach that takes into account community values, vulnerabilities and resilience, future changes in population and demographics, climate change, multiple hazards, cascading events, adaptation and a range of risk reduction strategies, such as land use planning, community education, land management, structural measures and changes to building codes.

Over the last five years, this project has co-developed conceptual, modelling and decision support frameworks for tackling the above problems in conjunction with more than 40 end-user organisations in four states (South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and Victoria). The frameworks facilitate:

The above frameworks have resulted in the development of the decision support software UNHaRMED (Unified Natural Hazards Risk Mitigation Exploratory Decision support system), applications for which have been co-developed with end-users for greater Adelaide, Perth and surrounds, Tasmania and greater and peri-urban Melbourne. In Adelaide, UNHaRMED is being used in collaboration with local governments for strategic flood mitigation planning and the development of a state emergency management exercise focused on recovery and long term mitigation related to sea level rise.

End-user training for the Perth and Tasmania UNHaRMED applications only occurred in 2019 and relevant agencies in these states are working towards the incorporation of these applications in state planning processes. End-user training for the greater and peri-urban application of UNHaRMED will take place in July 2019.

Other opportunities have also presented themselves in working with agencies and providing outputs and insight from UNHaRMED into other projects and products. These have included working with the SA Government on a mitigation exercise which will take place early in the next financial year focused on how to explore future impacts of coastal flooding and develop mitigation activities to be implemented. Another has been working with the National Resilience Taskforce on modelling capabilities for understanding climate and disaster risks.

}, keywords = {decision support, Natural hazards, risk reduction, UNHaRMED}, issn = {583}, author = {Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Sofanit Araya and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and Graeme Dandy and Eike Hamers} } @article {bnh-6576, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation}, number = {535}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report is the third in a series produced for the BNHCRC-funded project Integrating Urban Planning and Natural Hazard Mitigation. The first report constituted a theoretical exploration of integration between urban planning and emergency management supported by an overarching understanding of national and state contexts for these two fields of inquiry and practice, with a focus on the states of Victoria and South Australia. This report generated a preliminary framework used to subsequently interrogate a series of urbanplanning-related recommendations from royal commissions of inquiry and reviews targeting natural-hazard-related events in the past ten years, summarised in the second report.

Building on the preliminary framework of integration previously developed, this current report presents the development of an analytical framework for assessing integration between urban planning and emergency management arrangements and practice and its application in a real case in the state of Victoria. Findings presented in this report serves as the basis for the analysis of the South Australian case of integration in a moment when its planning system is under considerate reforms. A separate report containing findings from this subsequent analysis is to be submitted next.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, mitigation, Natural hazards, Risk assessment, urban planning}, issn = {535}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7004, title = {The missing link in emergency management: evaluating community engagement}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, pages = {45-52}, abstract = {

Community engagement programs in Australia are widely adopted by emergency management organisations as one way to get communities to recognise hazards and risks and prepare for emergency events. However, evaluation of these programs remains a challenge. A study with 30 community engagement practitioners and managers from Australian emergency management organisations, councils and not-for-profit organisations was undertaken to examine how they use measurement and evaluation of community engagement for preparedness. The findings suggest that while community engagement teams understand the importance of measuring the effects of engagement efforts and preparedness activities, most still do not link engagement activities with higher-level engagement outcomes that influence communities.

}, keywords = {community, emergency events, engagement, Natural hazards, preparation}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-january-2020-the-missing-link-in-emergency-management-evaluating-community-engagement/}, author = {Maureen Taylor and Barbara Ryan and Kim Johnston} } @book {bnh-6848, title = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {368}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1}, address = {London}, abstract = {

This book explores policy, legal, and practice implications regarding the emerging field of disaster justice, using case studies of floods, bushfires, heatwaves, and earthquakes in Australia and Southern and South-east Asia. It reveals geographic locational and social disadvantage and structural inequities that lead to increased risk and vulnerability to disaster, and which impact ability to recover post-disaster.\  Written by multidisciplinary disaster researchers, the book addresses all stages of the disaster management cycle, demonstrating or recommending just approaches to preparation, response and recovery. It notably reveals how procedural, distributional and interactional aspects of justice enhance resilience, and offers a cutting edge analysis of disaster justice for managers, policy makers, researchers in justice, climate change or emergency management.

}, keywords = {disaster justice, Emergency management, environmental sociology, framework, Natural hazards, policies}, isbn = {978-981-15-0466-2}, issn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2}, url = {https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9789811504655$\#$aboutBook}, author = {Anna Lukasiewicz and Claudia Baldwin} } @article {bnh-5616, title = {Australian householders{\textquoteright} psychological preparedness for potential natural hazard threats: An exploration of contributing factors}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Considerable attention has been given by researchers to householders{\textquoteright} material, or physical, preparedness for impact of a severe natural hazard. Somewhat less attention has been paid to psychological preparedness for such an event. This paper first reviews conceptual formulations of psychological preparedness for disasters, and self-report measures of the construct. Previous research findings about correlates of psychological preparedness are discussed. We report findings from a survey of 1,253 Australian households. Scores on two psychological preparedness subscales (Knowledge and management, Anticipation and awareness) were correlated with scores on a measure of material preparedness. For both women and men, seven factors were found to be associated with both psychological and material preparedness: (a) information awareness about psychological preparedness, (b) previous emergency services training or experience, (c) previous experience of natural hazard threat, (d) higher mindfulness scores, (e) higher active engagement coping style scores, (f) low stress scores, and (g) low depression scores. It was concluded that important issues remain to be addressed about how householder psychological preparedness for disasters is best conceptualised, measured, and modified.

}, keywords = {Coping, disasters, Mindfulness, Natural hazards, Psychological preparedness, Stress}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101203}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918310690}, author = {Danielle Every and Jim McLennan and Amy Reynolds and Trigg, Josh} } @conference {bnh-6405, title = {Business involvement in natural disasters in Australia and New Zealand }, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Catastrophic natural disasters by definition overwhelm the capability and capacity of emergency management organisations, at which times, the business sector can provide additional resources to assist communities. This study analyses the involvement of businesses in disaster management in Australia and New Zealand in three severe disaster events: the Black Saturday bushfires (2009); the Queensland floods (2010-11); and the Canterbury earthquake sequence (2010-11). It finds that businesses are already assisting communities to respond and recover from disasters, but there exists significant potential for further participation given a large number of businesses did not report involvement. Businesses are motivated by commitments to their staff and customers and corporate social responsibility, reflecting more complex business objectives then solely profit generation.

}, keywords = {business, communities, disasters, Natural hazards, recovery}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Jonathan Van Leeuwen and Andrew Gissing} } @article {bnh-7478, title = {Climate Change Increases the Potential for Extreme Wildfires}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {46}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, pages = {8517-8526}, abstract = {


Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) wildfires cause devastation in many regions globally. Given that fire-atmosphere coupling is associated with pyroCbs, future changes in coincident high index values of atmospheric instability and dryness (C-Haines) and near-surface fire weather are assessed for southeastern Australia using a regional climate projection ensemble. We show that observed pyroCb events occur predominantly on forested, rugged landscapes during extreme C-Haines conditions, but over a wide range of surface fire weather conditions. Statistically significant increases in the number of days where both C-Haines and near-surface fire weather values are conducive to pyroCb development are projected across southeastern Australia, predominantly for November (spring), and less strongly for December (summer) in 2060-2079 versus 1990-2009, with future C-Haines increases linked to increased 850-hPa dewpoint depression. The increased future occurrence of conditions conducive to pyroCb development and their extension into spring have implications for mitigating these dangerous wildfires and urbanizing fire-prone landscapes.

}, keywords = {atmospheric instability, dewpoint depression, Fire weather, Natural hazards, pyrocumulonimbus, regional climate modeling}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083699}, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083699}, author = {Giovanni Virgilio and Jason P. Evans and Stephanie Blake and Matthew Armstrong and Dowdy, Andrew J and Jason J. Sharples and McRae} } @article {bnh-5420, title = {Economics of Natural Hazards Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {455}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Our project aims to provide information on the economic, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards (tangible and intangible), in order to help hazard managers in their decision making. The purpose of our research is to help emergency service and land management agencies better prioritise their investments in mitigation. Using economic tools and expertise, we assess the impacts of hazard mitigation on intangible (non-market) values, in order to shed light on the real (total) costs and benefits of natural hazards (tangible and intangible) and help agencies better allocate their resources for mitigation.

}, keywords = {economics, environment, Multi-hazard, Natural hazards}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-5929, title = {Economics of natural hazards annual report 2018-2019}, number = {512}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Our project aims to provide information on the economic, social and environmental impacts of natural hazards (tangible and intangible), in order to help hazard managers in their decision making. We investigate the impacts of hazard mitigation on intangible (non-market) values, to shed light on the real (total) costs and benefits of natural hazards.

Our main focus is on developing tools and materials that will provide natural hazards managers with information on the value of mitigation and how intangible (non-market) values affect the costs and benefits of mitigation activities.
Our project will have 4 key outcomes:

  1. Provide an online platform for the intangible values database (called the Value Tool for Natural Hazards). The tool will be updated and maintained beyond the project so that managers can easily integrate intangible values in their analyses.
  2. Fill major knowledge gaps identified in the literature on intangible values that are affected by the management of natural hazards and improve the value tool with this new knowledge.
  3. Develop a Quick Economic Analysis Tool for the evaluation of the (tangible and intangible) costs and benefits of mitigation options that enables managers to conduct economic analyses in weeks rather than months.
  4. Create a Free Online Course on the application of economics to the assessment of natural hazard management options.

This year, we have progressed in the 4 outcomes outlined above:

  1. A website has been created for the Value Tool. Both the database and the guidelines can now be downloaded from http://valuetoolnaturalhazards.com. As per the agreement between UWA and BNHCRC, the tool will be freely accessible to end-users and external users. The website also includes the relevant disclaimer information and instructions that users of the tool must agree to comply with.
  2. A survey instrument has been designed and road-tested in a focus group for the original non-market valuation study. The next step in this process will be to test the survey in the Shire of York (WA), where we will estimate non-market values associated with cultural heritage and mental health.
  3. The draft (Beta) version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) has been completed. QEAT is currently being improved to include an easy-to-use sensitivity analysis, to be able to perform the analysis of several management options concurrently and to include a summary dashboard where all results are summarised in an easy-to-read manner. These additions are key aspects that our end-users have mentioned in the past as important to include in a tool such as this one. The Tool now needs to be validated with case studies.
  4. Equipment for creating the online videos is being purchased (e.g. green screen for background, microphone and tripod for computer). Filming of the videos will commence in July 2019.

The utilisation outputs from our project this year involved the development and distribution of tools that help natural hazard managers integration intangible (non-market) values in their decision making. The Value Tool for Natural Hazards and the accompanying guidelines are now available online and can be easily downloaded by end-users of the BNHCRC or other organisations. The Beta version of the Quick Economic Analysis Tool (QEAT) is in the process of being improved to include key aspects that were highlighted by end-users as important to include in a tool as this one.

This year there were 4 publications from the project: 3 peer-reviewed and one non-peer reviewed (see Project Publications 2018-2019 section below).

}, keywords = {Bushfire, cost-effective, cyclone, earthquake, economics, Emergency management, Flood, Natural hazards, risk management}, issn = {512}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and Atakelty Hailu and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-5435, title = {Enhancing resilience of critical road infrastructure: bridges, culverts and flood-ways under natural hazards Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {466}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During stage 1 of the project, disaster risk was understood in terms of the vulnerability of road structures, and the impacts of road failure on local communities. Stage 2 aims to enhance disaster preparedness, inform more effective responses, and ensuring that damaged structures are built back better during the recovery. In Stage 2 of this project, research will continue to apply the methods developed in Stage 1 to examine the vulnerability of categories of road structures for decision making. In addition to the assessment of structural vulnerability, a decision support framework will be developed through collaboration with other research projects of the BNH CRC such as decision making and fire modeling. The overarching aim of the proposed second stage of the project is to work closely with key stakeholders to implement the methodologies that have been developed for vulnerability modelling of road structures to priorities vulnerable structures for improvements, to quantify the cost of reconstruction and/or cost of hardening of structures, and to integrate community resilience considerations into the decisionmaking process. During the first year of Stage 2, several research objectives have been achieved, including hazard mapping for Victoria and Queensland, categorization of road structures, and floodway design process. The related methodologies are introduced below one by one.

}, keywords = {bridges, floodways, infrastructure resilience, Natural hazards}, author = {Sujeeva Setunge and Chun Qing Li and Darryn McEvoy and Kevin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Hessam Mohseni and Priyan Mendis and Tuan Ngo and Lihai Zhang and Nilupa Herath and Karu Karunasena and Weena Lokuge and Buddhi Wahalathantri and Dilanthi Amaratunga} } @article {bnh-5422, title = {Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {457}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Over the past decade, there has been an increasing amount of public attention focused on the contributions that Aboriginal people, and their knowledge and practices, make to resilience and sustainability agendas in Australia. Given the emerging commitment of natural hazards agencies in southern Australia to engagement and collaboration with Aboriginal people, the increasing level of legal recognition accorded to Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} land rights, and Aboriginal peoples{\textquoteright} own investment and interest in engaging in forms of natural hazard management, it is important that researchers support to this work, to understand and document how beneficial and respectful collaborations can be fostered.

The first year of the Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities (HCIC) project has focused around completing publications, initial fieldwork and the development of research priorities, and maintaining strong end user engagement. Key activities from this first year include:

}, keywords = {indigenous communities, Multi-hazard, Natural hazards}, author = {Will Smith and Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-5493, title = {Managing animals in disasters (MAiD) - improving preparedness, response and resilience through individual and organisational collaboration: Final Report 2017}, number = {476}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Managing Animals in Disasters (MAiD) project was a three-year research project focusing on the challenges for end users, stakeholders, and community members in preparing for, planning for, and responding to the needs of animals in emergencies. The aim of the project was to identify and build best practice approaches to animal emergency management (AEM) to enable engagement with animal owners and other stakeholders in disasters and emergencies.

}, keywords = {animals, Disaster management, Fire, Natural hazards}, author = {Mel Taylor} } @mastersthesis {bnh-6113, title = {Modelling the impact of lifeline infrastructure failure during natural hazard events}, year = {2019}, school = {Macquarie University}, type = {Doctorate}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

This thesis utilises mathematical graph theory tools alongside natural hazard modelling to analyse and quantify the extent of lifeline disruption during natural hazard events and the flow on effects of service failure. A future eruption of Mount Fuji in Japan is used as the major case study scenario to assess the usefulness of graph theory techniques in aiding disaster mitigation, emergency response and community recovery. In particular graph theory was used to assess the impacts of ash fall on the evacuation plans for Yamanashi Prefecture with regards to a future 1707 Hoei type eruption. It was found that: Ash induced road closures have the potential to affect current evacuation plans for Yamanashi Prefecture, particularly for those residents who are set to evacuate at or after the onset of a future eruption. Ash fall accumulation on roads, even after a few hours from the onset of an eruption, can inhibit road use, resulting in long detours or the inability for residents to be able to evacuate unassisted. After the cessation of an eruption, ash fall can impact the return of evacuees to their homes by either blocking roads or damaging buildings, affecting safety. Evacuees will have to wait for roads to be cleared of ash, and buildings to be assessed for damage, before they are able to return. In an eruption scenario where wind conditions are predominantly westerly the current plan for residents to evacuate to the north east of Yamanashi prefecture is not advisable. Assigned host locations in the northeast would be impacted by ash fall themselves; adding additional pressure on these communities and potentially resulting in further evacuations. This scenario provided the opportunity to test graph theory techniques in natural hazard risk assessment and to demonstrate how graph theory can assist post event recovery in a real world context. Methods developed in this study can be used to further explore impacts of ash fall, or other volcanic phenomena, in other prefectures around Mount Fuji or other volcanoes throughout Japan. Moreover, these methods can be used to address the exposure and risk to lifelines from other natural hazard events or even to compare between them. The results of this thesis show that graph theory techniques, alongside Geographic Information Systems tools and hazard modelling, with an understanding of the use and vulnerability of particular lifelines, can help to envisage potential problems that could result from lifeline failure and aid in the process of recovery. Not only is it important to make lifeline infrastructure more resilient to disruption from future natural hazard shocks, there is also a need to increase resilience by preparing communities to cope with service outages. For true shared responsibility to occur, local governments and communities need to be better informed and prepared so they can cope with the absence of lifelines during a disaster. Collaboration between all stakeholders is required to bridge information gaps and to create holistic disaster scenarios in order to provide more realistic and accurate assessments of future natural hazard impacts

}, keywords = {critical infrastructure, disaster relief, Emergency management, impacts, lifelines, Natural hazards, networks, volcanos}, doi = {http://hdl.handle.net/1959.14/1268491}, url = {http://minerva.mq.edu.au:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:70865}, author = {Phillips, E} } @article {bnh-5763, title = {Older adults in disaster and emergency management: What are the priority research areas in Australia?}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {39}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, abstract = {

In Australia, the proportion of people aged over 65 years is increasing and the frequency and severity of natural hazard events are also increasing. Older adults are often identified as a vulnerable group in natural hazard events, but there has been relatively little research that focuses specifically on older adults and their capacities and needs. This paper describes stakeholder consultation undertaken to identify research priorities related to older adults and natural hazards in Australia, and compares this to current research literature on this topic identified in an initial scoping review. A two-phase modified Delphi study was undertaken with stakeholder organisations within Australia, including older adults{\textquoteright} representative organisations, community services, and emergency services. Stakeholders (n = 112) first identified priority research areas and 649 distinct topics were suggested; thematic analysis was used to refine these to 19 research topic areas that were then rated and ranked for importance by stakeholders during phase two. The top five topic areas identified were {\textquoteleft}Communication and warnings,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Preparedness,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Awareness, behaviour and decision-making,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) communities,{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Community services and organisations{\textquoteright}. While these topics are covered in some Australian literature, further research {\textendash} particularly in relation to CALD communities, and community services/organisations {\textendash} is needed. This study demonstrates the value of stakeholder engagement and the Delphi approach for identifying research priorities that can best address issues and concerns amongst diverse stakeholders. It also highlights that there is a need for further research with older adults, communities, and stakeholders to support preparedness, risk reduction, and resilience.

}, keywords = {CALD, Disaster management, Emergency management, Natural hazards, Older adults, Stakeholder engagement}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101248}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919301736?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Lisa Fountain and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes and Mel Taylor and Susan Ferguson} } @conference {bnh-6330, title = {Post-Disaster Decision Making in Road Infrastructure Recovery Projects - An Interview Study with Practitioners in Queensland}, booktitle = {Australian \& New Zealand Disaster \& Emergency Management Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

The repair and reconstruction of road infrastructure plays a vital role in the recovery process after a disaster event and will be affected by the decision-making processes adopted by asset owners. The objective of this study is to understand how road asset owners assess and prioritise road reconstruction projects in order to identify how decision making could be improved in real-life post-disaster scenarios. This paper presents results of in-depth interviews with road infrastructure practitioners in Queensland, on decision making in a post-disaster context, using a case study based approach. A number of challenges were identified including the lack of a common decision making platform, the lack of focus on the socio-ecological impacts during decision making and the importance of community engagement during the reconstruction process.

}, keywords = {Decision making, Disaster management, Natural hazards, Reconstruction, Road infrastructure}, url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333842851_Post-Disaster_Decision_Making_in_Road_Infrastructure_Recovery_Projects_-_An_Interview_Study_with_Practitioners_in_Queensland}, author = {Akvan Gajanayake and Tehmina Khan and Kevin Zhang} } @article {bnh-5438, title = {Towards Protective Action: Effective Risk and Warning Communication during Natural Hazards Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {467}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {
This project plan draws on three years of interdisciplinary research and end-userengagement that derived evidence-based insights into risk and warning\ communication during the response and early recovery phases of natural\ hazards. The research (both completed and in-progress) examines existing and\ modified communication to community members and business owners\ that maybe affected by natural hazards. Our research findings have been shared with\ end-users through AFAC Committees, invited presentations, private meetings,\ conferences,\ workshops\ and translated into practice via audits of agency\ messages.\ The original BNHCRC project (2013-2017) focused on\ the pre-decisional\ processes of community members and business owners, particularly their\ exposure to, attention to, and comprehension of emergency warning messages\ in the response and early recovery phase of multiple hazards. This project (2017-2020) builds on that knowledge and focuses on how the inputs into the pre-decisional process\ {\textemdash}\ environmental cues, social cues, information sources,\ channel access and preference, warning messages and receiver\ characteristics\ {\textemdash}\ inform protective action during the response and early recovery\ phases of natural hazards.
}, keywords = {communications, Multi-hazard, Natural hazards, Warnings}, author = {Vivienne Tippett and Lisa Bradley and Paula Dootson and Dominique Greer and Amisha Mehta and Sophie Miller} } @conference {bnh-6509, title = {Transforming through diversity and inclusion capability {\textendash} the pathway to achieving diversity benefits}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

A key driver for building diversity and inclusion (D\&I) in emergency management organisations (EMOs) is to better represent diverse cohorts and ensure EMOs and their communities become more resilient to natural hazards. While EMOs have made some progress, dynamic transformation is required to effectively manage the rapidly changing contexts they and their communities face. Central to this is the need to expand the current service{\textendash}client relationship to become a more inclusive partnership model that builds resilience.
This paper reports on Phase 2 of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre project Diversity and inclusion: Building strength and capability, which aimed to develop a D\&I framework for the emergency management sector (EMS). Key aspects are: A process framework to guide organisations by linking strategic objectives to day-today decision making and integrates D\&I practice into organisational systems; Identification and development of specific strategic and people-based capabilities and skills; Management of risks arising as a result of D\&I shocks; and A process to measure and manage progress and assess the benefits derived from investment.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {diversity and inclusion, Natural hazards, organisations, resilience, risk management}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones and Neelam Maharaj and Bruce Rasmussen} } @article {bnh-6665, title = {Australian inquiries into natural hazard events}, number = {544}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the second research report for the Integrated Urban Planning for Natural Hazard Mitigation BNH-CRC project and constitutes a preliminary assessment of selected current approaches to integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation. Major post-event inquiries can play an important role in pushing for the reform of current urban planning arrangements to target disaster risk reduction. This was evident in the implementation of the Bushfire Management Overlay (see Appendix 1) and related statutory mechanisms in the State of Victoria after the 2009 Bushfires. Furthermore, recommendations can shed light on areas perceived as gaps during wider assessments of causes and contributory factors relating to major hazard events. Therefore, a review of urban-planning-related recommendations following major post-event inquiries and reviews across all-natural hazards will form the basis of this report, considering the role of urban planning in reducing emergent and legacy risks associated with the built environment.

The form of post-event inquiries varies widely, from the focused, technical and brief, to wide-ranging and lengthy such as those carried out by a Royal Commission (Eburn \& Dovers, 2015). While the recommendations of inquiries are very rarely binding on governments, they nonetheless carry significant weight and implementation is the norm. There were 142 post-event inquiries in Australia between 2009 and 2017, constituting by far the largest body of evaluation data regarding actual or perceived issues in disaster prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. This report begins to explore those recommendations from 55 major inquiries that relate to urban planning (Cole, Dovers, Eburn, \& Gough, 2017; Cole, Dovers, Gough, \& Eburn, 2018).

In this context, a preliminary assessment of urban-planning-related recommendations put forward by major post-event inquiries and reviews proved a worthwhile undertaking as the first step into understanding current approaches to integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in the past 10 years.

The assessment of these recommendations was informed by the analytical framework developed in the first research report for this project, developed through a review of relevant literature and in consultation with end-users. This analytical framework proposed a set of elements of an approach to integration, and a general list of urban planning tools and another of urban planning treatments of risk that can be used to support natural hazard mitigation.

Assessing urban-planning-related recommendations against the set of categories proposed in this analytical framework targeted both the mapping of these recommendations to unveil concentrations as well as the testing and expansion of the framework through its first practical application.

Findings from this preliminary assessment will inform the next stage of this research project which consists in the assessment of specific Australian and international case studies. The former will provide an opportunity to contrast recommendations with implemented integration while the later holds potential for an expansion of possibilities to integration to those already being employed in Australia.

}, keywords = {events, inquiries, mitigation, Natural hazards, urban planning}, issn = {544}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-4479, title = {Community adaptation to cope with disaster related road structure failure}, journal = {Procedia Engineering}, volume = {212}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, chapter = {1355}, abstract = {

Natural hazards can cause a wide range of social and economic impacts both to the area directly affected by the hazards as well as to the broader community. Although community resilience is an important aspect that influences post-disaster response and recovery stages, it has not been explicitly studied by most scholars, and is rather taken to be embedded in the socio-economic landscape studied in the literature. Road structures such as bridges, culverts and flood-ways play a vital role in times of natural disasters as their functionality directly influences evacuation, rescue, recovery and reconstruction activities. In addition to the direct benefits derived from road structures, in the event of a disaster, they play a vital role in resilience by connecting individuals and communities. This paper identifies adaptation methods practiced by disaster affected communities targeted at increasing their accessibility and mobility, and analyses how such adaptation activities can minimise the negative effects brought on by the failure of road structures. The paper uses a recent case study from regional Queensland, Australia, to understand how adaptation options vary in rural areas and to explore possible methods to improve resilience of communities.

}, keywords = {Community adaptation, Natural hazards, road structure failure.}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2018.01.175}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877705818302030?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Akvan Gajanayake and Hessam Mohseni and Guomin Zhang and Jane Mullett and Sujeeva Setunge} } @article {bnh-6056, title = {Floods, bushfires and sectoral economic output in Australia, 1978-2014}, journal = {Economic Record}, volume = {95}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, pages = {58-80}, abstract = {

Using state-level annual variation in natural disasters and economic output in Australia, we estimate the direct effects of floods and bushfires on sectoral gross value added during the period 1978{\textendash}2014. We find that floods exert an adverse and persistent effect on the outputs of agriculture, mining, construction and financial services sectors. For example, our estimates indicate that a state that experienced a flood in a given year encountered, on average, 5{\textendash}6 per cent lower agricultural output in both that year and the following year, compared to another state with no such flood experience. Sectoral responses to bushfires are more nuanced.

}, keywords = {economic, Floods, Natural hazards}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12446}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1475-4932.12446}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Muhamman Rahman and Yasin Onder and Chen, Yang and Abbas Rajabifard} } @article {bnh-5020, title = {Predictive applications of Australian flood loss models after a temporal and spatial transfer}, journal = {Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk }, volume = {9}, year = {2018}, month = {03/2018}, pages = {14}, chapter = {416}, abstract = {

In recent decades, considerably greater flood losses have increased attention to flood risk evaluation. This study used data-sets collected from Queensland flood events and investigated the predictive capacity of three new Australian flood loss models to assess the extent of physical damages, after a temporal and spatial transfer. The models{\textquoteright} predictive power is tested for precision, variation, and reliability. The performance of a new Australian flood loss function was contrasted with two tree-based damage models, one pruned and one un-pruned. The tree-based models are grown based on the interaction of flood loss ratio with 13 examined predictors gathered from flood specifications, building characteristics, and mitigation actions. Besides an overall comparison, the prediction capacity is also checked for some sub-classes of water depth and some groups of building-type.

It has been shown that considering more details of the flood damage process can improve the predictive capacity of damage prediction models. In this regard, complexity with parameters with low predictive power may lead to more uncertain results. On the other hand, it has also been demonstrated that the probability analysis approach can make damage models more reliable when they are subjected to use in different flooding events.

}, keywords = {damage assessment, Disaster risk reduction, flood risk, Natural hazards, predictive capacity}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19475705.2018.1445666}, author = {Roozbeh Hasanzadeh Nafari and Tuan Ngo} } @article {bnh-4738, title = {Southeast Australia Aboriginal fire forum}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report was written as part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre{\textquoteright}s {\textquoteleft}Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities{\textquoteright} research project (BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s HCIC). The HCIC research project focuses on collaborations between Aboriginal groups and natural hazards management agencies across southern Australia (see further Appendix 3). The BNHCRC is funded through a combination of Commonwealth research monies, as well as financial and in-kind contributions from government organisations, research institutions and nongovernment organisations. We were invited to attend the Forum and write this report by the Murumbung Rangers, with whom we have one of our case study relationships; nevertheless, this is an independent research report written with respect to the HCIC project{\textquoteright}s research priorities. The Forum facilitators, Coolamon Advisors, prepared an official Forum Report which summarises key findings and provides recommendations emerging from the speakers and participants over the first two days of the forum (Coolamon Advisors 2018). This research report includes excerpts from the Forum Report in textboxes. These reports are valuable for the work of key actors involved in cultural burning, whether they attended the forum or not.

}, keywords = {culture, Fire, indigenous, mitigation, Natural hazards}, issn = {413}, author = {Will Smith and Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-4570, title = {Valuing recovery through risk ownership}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {33}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {
As the risks encountered by natural hazards change and become more dynamic, so too, does the task of recovering from them. To manage natural hazards, planners must plan for the unexpected; building resilience before, during and after events. Currently, recovery funding is limited to a two-year window. Devastated communities that do not recover during this time rely on ad hoc funding to support patchy recovery beyond this. Planning for long-term recovery needs to be embedded throughout the risk assessment process to be effective. This presents a number of challenges. By identifying the longer-term risks and their consequences in advance, sustained recovery can be planned for all social, environmental and economic values (assets). This will determine what recovery interventions may be needed and when they are likely be most effective.

}, keywords = {lessons management., mitigation, Natural hazards, prevention, risk ownership, risks}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-valuing-recovery-through-risk-ownership/}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} } @article {bnh-1745, title = {Predictors of south-eastern Australian householders{\textquoteright} strengths of intentions to self-evacuate if a wildfire threatens: two theoretical models}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {23}, year = {2014}, month = {11/11/2014}, pages = {1176-1188}, chapter = {1176}, abstract = {

Householder evacuation in the face of a wildfire threat is the survival option advocated by fire agencies. However, late evacuation is common and has resulted in loss of life. The primary aim of this study was to investigate potential predictors of householders{\textquoteright} strength of intention to leave early in response to a bushfire threat warning. A survey of 584 residents of bushfire-prone locations in south-eastern Australia was conducted. Theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and protection motivation theory (PMT) were used to explore predictors of strength of householders{\textquoteright} intentions to leave, or to stay and defend following a bushfire warning. TPB was a useful predictor of strength of intention to leave, but PMT was not such a useful predictor of strength of intention to leave. Householder efficacy and self-characterisation were important contributors, whereas perceptions of severity and susceptibility to threat were not found to be significant contributors. Neither model performed well in predicting strength of intention to stay and defend. The findings are discussed in relation to community wildfire safety research and practice.

}, keywords = {Natural hazards, stay or go policy}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13219}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF13219}, author = {Jim McLennan and Sean Cowlishaw and Paton, Douglas and Beatson, Ruth and Elliott, Glenn} }