@article {BF-4286,
	title = {Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling},
	volume = {266},
	year = {2013},
	month = {09/2013},
	pages = {172-186},
	chapter = {172},
	abstract = {An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide future land management and planning. However, quantification of landscape change from vegetation development and disturbance effects is difficult because of the large space and long time scales involved. Comparative simulation modeling experiments, using a suite of models to simulate a set of scenarios, can provide a platform for investigating landscape change over more ecologically appropriate time and space scales that control vegetation and disturbance. We implemented a multifactorial simulation experiment using five landscape fire succession models to explore the role of fire and vegetation development under various climates on a neutral landscape. The simulation experiment had four factors with two or three treatments each: (1) fire (fire and no fire), (2) succession (dynamic and static succession), (3) climate (historical, warm-wet, warm-dry), and (4) weather (constant, variable). We found that, under historical climates, succession changed more area annually than fire by factors of 1.2 to 34, but one model simulated more landscape change from fire (factor of 0.1). However, we also found that fire becomes more important in warmer future climates with factors decreasing to below zero for most models. We also found that there were few differences in simulation results between weather scenarios with low or high variability. Results from this study show that there will be a shift from vegetation processes that control today{\textquoteright}s landscape dynamics to fire processes under future warmer and drier climates, and this shift means that detailed representations of both succession and fire should be incorporated into models to realistically simulate interactions between disturbance and vegetation.},
	keywords = {Landscape dynamics, Landscape ecology, Model comparison, Simulation modeling, Succession, wildland fire},
	doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.06.020},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438001300313X},
	author = {Robert E. Keane and Geoffrey J. Cary and Flannigan, Mike D. and Parsons, Russell A. and Davies, Ian D. and Karen J. King and Li, Chao and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm}
}
@article {BF-2398,
	title = {Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape{\textendash}fire{\textendash}succession models},
	journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
	volume = {18},
	year = {2009},
	month = {2009},
	pages = {147},
	abstract = {The behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAF{\'E}, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets adjacent to fire-prone landscapes) was quantified for a standardised modelling landscape. Importance was measured as the proportion of variation in area or edge pixels burned explained by each factor and all interactions among them. Weather and ignition management were consistently more important for explaining variation in area burned than fuel management approach and effort, which were found to be statistically unimportant. For the number of edge pixels burned, weather and ignition management were generally more important than fuel management approach and effort. Increased ignition management effort resulted in decreased area burned in all models and decreased number of edge pixels burned in three models. The findings demonstrate that year-to-year variation in weather and the success of ignition management consistently prevail over the effects of fuel management on area burned in a range of modelled ecosystems.},
	doi = {10.1071/WF07085},
	author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Flannigan, Mike D. and Robert E. Keane and Ross Bradstock and Davies, Ian D. and Lenihan, James M. and Li, Chao and Logan, Kimberley A. and Parsons, Russell A.}
}
@article {BF-2330,
	title = {Comparison of the Sensitivity of Landscape-fire-succession Models to Variation in Terrain, Fuel Pattern, Climate and Weather},
	journal = {Landscape Ecology},
	volume = {21},
	year = {2006},
	month = {01/2006},
	pages = {121 - 137},
	abstract = {The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors
across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned
to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and
coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer \& wetter, and warmer \& drier) and weather (year-to-year
variability) was determined for four existing landscape-fire-succession models (EMBYR, FIRESCAPE,
LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) and a new model implemented in the LAMOS modelling shell (LAMOS(
DS)). Sensitivity was measured as the variance in area burned explained by each of the four factors,
and all of the interactions amongst them, in a standard generalised linear modelling analysis. Modelled area
burned was most sensitive to climate and variation in weather, with four models sensitive to each of these
factors and three models sensitive to their interaction. Models generally exhibited a trend of increasing area
burned from observed, through warmer and wetter, to warmer and drier climates with a 23-fold increase in
area burned, on average, from the observed to the warmer, drier climate. Area burned was sensitive to
terrain for FIRESCAPE and fuel pattern for EMBYR. These results demonstrate that the models are
generally more sensitive to variation in climate and weather as compared with terrain complexity and fuel
pattern, although the sensitivity to these latter factors in a small number of models demonstrates the
importance of representing key processes. The models that represented fire ignition and spread in a relatively},
	doi = {10.1007/s10980-005-7302-9},
	author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Robert E. Keane and Gardner, Robert H. and Lavorel, S and Flannigan, Mike D. and Davies, Ian D. and Li, Chao and Lenihan, James M. and Rupp, TS and Florent Mouillot}
}
@article {BF-1069,
	title = {A classification of landscape fire succession models: spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics.},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling. },
	volume = {179},
	number = {1},
	year = {2005},
	month = {11/15/2004},
	pages = {Mar-27},
	author = {Robert E. Keane and Geoffrey J. Cary and Davies, Ian D. and Flannigan, Mike D. and Gardner, Robert H. and Lavorel, S and Lenihan, James M. and Li, Chao and Rupp, TS}
}
