@article {bnh-7761, title = {The influence of soil moisture on surface and sub-surface litter fuel moisture simulation at five Australian sites}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {298-299}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, abstract = {

Fuel moisture content (FMC) of the litter is a critical factor determining fire ignition and spread and is an important input for most fire behaviour prediction models. Several models, ranging from empirical regression functions to physics-based models, have been developed to forecast litter FMC. Soil moisture below the litter layer has been shown to influence litter FMC, but few models explicitly consider its effect. This study aimed to evaluate how soil moisture content may affect litter FMC by coupling soil moisture as a boundary condition to the physics-based {\textquoteleft}Koba{\textquoteright} model, which simulates radiation, energy and moisture fluxes in the surface and subsurface litter layer. The coupled model was tested at five sites in Victoria, Australia, where litter FMC values were recorded continuously during 2014-2015 using calibrated fuel stick sensors. Two versions of the model were compared against the observations: an uncoupled model and a model version accounting for the vapour flux from soil to litter. The simulation results show that the influence of soil moisture depends on environmental conditions. Soil moisture appeared to have a minor influence on FMC when both soil and litter are dry, but a stronger influence when the soil is relatively wet. Correspondingly, the coupled model explained observed FMC better than the uncoupled model for the two wetter study sites. As expected, the subsurface litter in contact with the soil appeared more sensitive to soil moisture conditions than the surface litter. The influence of soil vapour flux on litter FMC can be considerable during the transition from wet to dry litter and soil conditions. This has implications for hazard reduction burning, which is typically planned to take advantage of transitional fuel moisture conditions. Further research is needed to understand the influence of the structure and thickness of litter on the importance of soil vapour flux.

}, keywords = {Coupled model, Dead fuel, forecast, fuel moisture content, Soil moisture}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108282}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0168192320303841?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Li Zhao and Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Stuart Matthews and Gary J. Sheridan} } @article {bnh-7036, title = {Impact of Australia{\textquoteright}s catastrophic 2019/20 bushfire season on communities and environment. Retrospective analysis and current trends}, journal = {Journal of Safety Science and Resilience}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, abstract = {

2019/20 Australia{\textquoteright}s bushfire season (Black Summer fires) occurred during a period of record breaking temperatures and extremely low rainfall. To understand the impact of these climatic values we conducted a preliminary analysis of the 2019/20 bushfire season and compared it with the fire seasons between March 2000 and March 2020 in the states of New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, and South Australia (SA). Forest and fire management in Australia were asked to provide data on the number of fires, burned area, life and house loss, as well as weather conditions. By March 2020 Black Summer fires burnt almost 19 million hectares, destroyed over 3,000 houses, and killed 33 people. Data showed that they were unprecedented in terms of impact on all areas. A number of mega-fires occurred in NSW resulting in more burned area than in any fire season during the last 20 years. One of them was the largest recorded forest fire in Australian history. Victoria had a season with the highest number of fires, area burned, and second highest numbers of houses lost for the same period. SA had the highest number of houses lost in the last 20 years. Black Summer fires confirmed existing trends of impact categories during the last two decades for NSW and Victoria. It showed that the smoke from the bushfires may be a significant concern in the future for the global community, as it travels to other countries and continents. Based on preliminary data, it will take many years to restore the economy and infrastructure in impacted areas, and to recover animal and vegetation biodiversity.

}, keywords = {2019/20 season, bushfires, Impact, retrospective analysis}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2020.06.009}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666449620300098}, author = {Alex Filkov and Tuan Ngo and Stuart Matthews and Simeon Telfer and Trent Penman} } @conference {bnh-6510, title = {Detecting active fires from space using Himawari-8: a report from the regional New South Wales trial }, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Continuous monitoring fires over Australia using Himawari-8 geostationary satellite data (available every 10 minutes) has the potential to change lives.

Active-fire hotspots are routinely available from polar-orbiting satellites such as MODIS and VIIRS (Giglio et al. 2003; Giglio et al. 2016; Schroder et al. 2014) over Australia. Active-fire hotspots from those systems are only available a few times a day, with the specific times dictates by the satellite orbits themselves. With satellite orbits not necessarily concurring with time of maximum fire activity. In late 2015 though, the Japanese Meteorological Agency launched the Himawari-8 geostationary satellite, with full-disk observations (including Australia) available every 10 minutes (Bessho et al. 2016). These frequent observations have the potential to support continuous real-time satellite monitoring of active fires over Australia.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {fire management, fires, monitoring, risk management, Satellite}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Chermelle Engel and Stuart Matthews and Simon Jones and Karin Reinke} } @conference {bnh-6411, title = {Fire weather and prototype fire danger ratings for the Gell River fire, Tasmania}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We provide a preliminary analysis of the meteorology of key aspects of the Gell River fire in Tasmania during late December 2018 and early January 2019, including the lightning storm that ignited the fire, and conditions on 4 January 2019, when the fire increased substantially in size. We also briefly assess the performance of the Australian National Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) Research Prototype available on 4 January against observations of fire spread and routine McArthur Forest Fire Danger forecasts.

The Gell River fire occurred within a context of declining October {\textendash} April rainfall in western Tasmania over the last two decades, in comparison to the average rainfall for the period since 1900 (Fig. 1, Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2018)). It was one of several large fires that competed for fire management resources over an extended period during the 2018-2019 Tasmanian fire season. The fire impacted natural values including those of the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) and risked spreading into parts of the iconic Mt Field National Park, as well as threatening a number of communities in the Derwent Valley, particularly Maydena. The Gell River fire also threatened major electrical transmission infrastructure connecting the large Gordon-Pedder power generation facility in the west of Tasmania to population centres in the east, and burnt approximately 500 ha of a 5,000 ha pine plantation. On 4 January, thick smoke from the fire crossed over the Greater Hobart area, sparking concern and raising awareness within the wider community about the fire activity (Fig. 2).

}, keywords = {Fire behaviour, Fire weather, modelling}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Paul Fox-Hughes and Stuart Matthews and Chris Collins and Saskia Grootemaat and Jennifer J Hollis and Alexander Holmes and Belinda Kenny and John Runcie and Samuel Sauvage} } @article {bnh-5194, title = {How do weather and terrain contribute to firefighter entrapments in Australia?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {27}, year = {2018}, month = {02/2018}, pages = {85-98}, chapter = {85}, abstract = {

Adverse weather conditions and topographic influences are suspected to be responsible for most entrapments of firefighters in Australia. A lack of temporally and spatially coherent set of data however, hinders a clear understanding of the contribution of each weather type or terrain driver on these events. We investigate coronial inquiries and internal fire agencies reports across several Australian states from 1980 to 2017 and retrieve 45 entrapments. A first analysis reveals that most entrapments happen during large fires and that the number of deaths has decreased over the last few decades. Comparing the meteorological and topographical conditions of the entrapments with the conditions of a reference set of fires without entrapment, we build a linear regression model that identifies the main contributors to firefighter entrapment. A change in wind direction, which was associated with 42\% of the incidents examined, is the main factor contributing to entrapments. Interaction between strong winds and steep slopes also influences the likelihood of entrapment and suggests that dynamic fire behaviours may also play important roles. As further details of this relationship between dynamic fire propagation and firefighter entrapment is now required, the understanding of weather and terrain contribution is a first step to produce comprehensive safety guidance.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17114}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF17114}, author = {Lahaye, S and Jason J. Sharples and Stuart Matthews and Heemstra, S and Owen Price and Badlan, R} } @conference {bnh-4333, title = {What are the safety implications of dynamic fire behaviours?}, booktitle = {22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, address = {Hobart}, abstract = {

Many firefighters in the world have been injured or killed due to a forest fire entrapment, caught by the fire heat or smoke. Some case studies have pointed out that dynamic fire behaviour may have played a role. We investigate here how changes in wind direction, channelling (i.e. vorticity-driven lateral spread on a leeward slope) and long distance spotting could contribute to entrapments through a process model, simplified in Figure 1. There are three situations likely to entrap firefighters:

We review fire agencies archives in Australasia and Europe from 1979 to 2017 and retrieve 106 entrapments, investigating weather, terrain and location of fire front during entrapment. We also compare the Australasian subset with fires without entrapment using a binomial regression function.

In Australia, changes in wind direction induced by cold front passes is the main factor contributing to entrapment. These sudden changes in wind direction switch long smooth burning flanks of fire in violent fronts and lead to S1 situations. S2, sudden lateral spread, occurs in rough terrain. There, leeward slopes may generate channelling, causing entrapment several hundred meters far away from the fire flank. S3 appears when fire danger index reaches highest values. When fuel drought combines with adverse weather conditions, mass spotting propagates fire at long distance. Then, firefighters may be entrapped whatever the terrain.

This work improves our understanding of the process from dynamic fire behaviour to firefighter entrapment. Identifying three different situations, the model should help fire agencies to adapt their safety warnings regarding the local daily conditions.

}, author = {Lahave, S and Jason J. Sharples and Stuart Matthews and Heemstra, S and Owen Price} } @article {bnh-3081, title = {Decision making, team monitoring and organisational learning in emergency management: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {222}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

There is evidence that incidents associated with natural hazards are becoming more complex and that strategic level emergency management is becoming an ever more sophisticated workplace environment. If we are going to expect people to operate in this environment we need to ensure that their skills and tools effectively support them. We need to develop the capability of our people to function in these increasingly complex environments now and into the future.

This project seeks to develop practical decision tools that can help people to function more effectively in complex emergency management environments. Towards this aim the project has three main research streams that seek to: provide enhanced methods of making decisions; develop methods to better monitor and modify the behavior of teams; and to identify the enablers and barriers to organisational learning so that the capabilities needed can continue to adapt and change.

In the team monitoring stream, a comprehensive literature review of methods to monitor teams from the position of operational oversight has been conducted. Based on this literature review and discussions with end users two methods (EMBAM \& TBM) have been selected and have received preliminary evaluation. This preliminary evaluation has proved to be encouraging and has led to both NSW SES and CFS proposing to use the tools operationally during the 2016-17 storm and fire seasons. This will provide further opportunities for evaluation and development.

In the decision making stream, research has identified both the context in which decisions are made (e.g. the policies \& procedures) and the informal strategies that people use to function within dynamic, pressured work environments. This work has identified opportunities for improvement and ways to bring the formal and informal elements of decision-making closer together. Decision making has also been explored in the context of organisational resilience and the REAG Resilience Health Check Tool. Based on these activities strategies and approaches to enhance decision making have been identified and will be evaluated with end-users through 2016-17.

In the organisational learning stream, interviews have revealed that strategic-level emergency managers need to assess learning through trade-offs where agency values and the complexities involved in managing incidents interact. The findings also suggest that there are sometimes complementary but often conflicting standards against which crisis management may be judged. Finally there is often a difference between assumptions about how emergencies {\textquotedblleft}ought{\textquotedblright} to be managed (espoused theories) and how they in fact are managed. The research in this stream is now focused in working closely with end users to unpack these tensions and contradictions.

Through these three streams of activity then the project is developing a range of practical tools and strategies that have the potential to enhance decision making, team monitoring and organisational learning. It seems likely that strategic emergency management will be becoming increasingly complex in the near future. The research presented here contributes to developing the capability

}, issn = {222}, author = {Christopher Bearman and Brooks, B and Owen, Christine and Steve Curnin and Rainbird, Sophia and Stuart Matthews} } @article {BF-4288, title = {Dead fuel moisture research: 1991{\textendash}2012}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2013}, month = {09/2013}, abstract = {The moisture content of dead fuels is an important determinant of many aspects of bushfire behaviour. Understanding the relationships of fuel moisture with weather, fuels and topography is useful for fire managers and models of fuel moisture are an integral component of fire behaviour models. This paper reviews research into dead fuel moisture for the period 1991{\textendash}2012. The first half of the paper deals with experimental investigation of fuel moisture including an overview of the physical processes that affect fuel moisture, laboratory measurements used to quantify these processes, and field measurements of the dependence of fuel moisture on weather, vegetation structure and topography. The second set of topics examine models of fuel moisture including empirical models derived from field measurements, process-based models of vapour exchange and fuel energy and water balance, and experimental testing of both types of models. Remaining knowledge gaps and future research problems are also discussed. Opportunities for exciting research in the future exist for basic fuel moisture processes, developing new methods for applying models to fire behaviour prediction, and linking fuel moisture and weather forecast models.}, keywords = {forest litter, fuel moisture content, model, review}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13005}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF13005.htm}, author = {Stuart Matthews} } @article {BF-4289, title = {Testing existing models for predicting hourly variation in fine fuel moisture in eucalypt forests}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {306}, year = {2013}, month = {10/2013}, pages = {202-215}, chapter = {202}, abstract = {Several days of hourly fuel moisture sampling were carried out in Southern Tasmania in dry and damp eucalyptus forest to test fuel moisture prediction models used in Australia, and to provide information on equilibrium moisture content and response time for use in more complex models. Moisture contents of near surface, surface, profile litter and bark fuels were measured, along with standard weather variables. On one set of four consecutive days fuel temperatures were also measured with thermocouples. One of the simple empirical fuel moisture prediction models worked well on the litter fuels for which it was intended, but another of the simple models in common use, predicted poorly, particularly on the damp site. One of the simple models was modified, and gave acceptable predictions for profile litter. Another simple model was calibrated to give good predictions for near surface, bark and litter fuels in the middle of the day. A more physically-based {\textquoteleft}bookkeeping{\textquoteright} model for estimating response time and EMC worked very well on all strata but the litter profile. Response times of all fuel strata were of the order of 1 h. A process based model worked slightly better than the EMC estimation model for near surface, litter and bark fuel and considerably better for profile litter, especially on the damp site. On the whole these models performed better than the simple empirical models, but they were tuned to various degrees by site information.}, keywords = {Bookkeeping model, Eucalyptus forest, Fine fuel moisture, Process-based model}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.06.033}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112713004015}, author = {Slijepcevic, A. and Wendy R. Anderson and Stuart Matthews} } @article {BF-3100, title = {Field evaluation of two image-based wildland fire detection systems}, journal = {Fire Safety Journal}, volume = {47}, year = {2012}, month = {1/2012}, pages = {54 - 61}, abstract = {Rapid detection of wildfire outbreaks is a critical component of fire management because suppression activities are most effective when fires are small. One method of fire detection and location is computer analysis of images from sensors mounted on towers. In this paper we report on a trial of two image-based detection systems under operational conditions in forests and pasture in south-eastern Australia. The systems were deployed for 3 months in autumn, 2010, during which time a total of 12 experimental fires, 31 planned fires lit by public land management agencies, approximately 250 planned fires lit by private individuals, and 1 unplanned fire were recorded. Both image-based systems were able to detect and locate fires. They performed well for larger planned fires but poorly for small fires (View the MathML source area) at moderate distances (10{\textendash}20 km). System performance was compared to a human observer for a subset of fires. For these fires the human observer had a higher detection rate and shorter reporting time than the image-based systems. All methods of detection had a similar level of error for locating fires in the landscape once they had been detected. Operator skill was an important factor in the performance of all systems. Image-based fire detection could be a useful complement to other detection methods already in use in Australia.}, doi = {10.1016/j.firesaf.2011.11.001}, author = {Stuart Matthews and Sullivan, Andrew and J.S. Gould and Hurley, R.J. and Ellis, Peter and Larmour, John} } @article {BF-3088, title = {Behind the flaming zone: Predicting woody fuel consumption in eucalypt forest fires in southern Australia}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {261}, year = {2011}, month = {6/2011}, pages = {2049 - 2067}, abstract = {Pre-fire woody fuel (diameter > 0.6 cm) structure and its consumption by fire were measured at experimental/prescribed fires and high intensity wildfires in eucalypt forests in southern Australia in order to better understand and model the dynamics of woody fuel consumption. Two approaches were used in model development: (1) a fire or plot level analysis, based on a dataset which includes the proportion of the pre-fire woody fuel load consumed at each fire; and (2) a stage level analysis, based on a dataset where woody fuel consumption was measured at a woody fuel particle level (i.e. pre-fire and post-fire diameter). For the plot level analysis a generalised linear model (GLM) approach identified the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) as the best predictor of the proportion of woody fuel consumed, with an R2 of 0.58 and mean absolute error of 10\%. The stage level analysis recognised the various combustion stages through which a burning woody particle would pass, but failed to develop an accurate model that predicted the ignition, partial and full consumption of woody fuels based on fuel, fire behaviour and environmental variables. Analysis showed that consumption of woody fuel particles is highly variable and that variation in fire behaviour potentially has a greater impact on woody fuel consumption, than does variation in fuel characteristics (e.g. state of decay, fuel suspension and interactions with other fuel particles). The FFDI GLM provides forest and fire managers with a tool to manage woody fuel consumption objectives and may assist fire managers with forecasting post-frontal fire behaviour. The FFDI GLM may also assist forest and fire managers to better meet land management goals and to comply with air quality and emission targets.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2011.02.031}, author = {Jennifer J Hollis and Stuart Matthews and Wendy R. Anderson and Cruz, Miguel G. and Burrows, N.D.} } @proceedings {BF-3092, title = {Assessing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian forest fires}, year = {2010}, author = {Jennifer J Hollis and Stuart Matthews and Ottmar, R.D. and S.J. Prichard and Slijepcevic, A. and Burrows, N.D. and Ward, B. and Tolhurst, K.G. and Wendy R. Anderson and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-2578, title = {Fire Dynamics in Mallee Heath Vegetation}, year = {2010}, author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and Stuart Matthews and J.S. Gould and Ellis, Peter and Henderson, M. K. and Knight, IK and Watters, J} } @article {BF-2582, title = {Testing woody fuel consumption models for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {260}, year = {2010}, month = {08/2010}, pages = {948 - 964}, abstract = {Five models for the consumption of coarse woody debris or woody fuels with a diameter larger than 0.6 cm were assessed for application in Australian southern eucalypt forest fires including: CONSUME models for (1) activity fuels, (2) natural western woody and (3) natural southern woody fuels, (4) the BURNUP model and (5) the recommendation by the Australian National Carbon Accounting System which assumes 50\% woody fuel consumption. These models were assessed using field data collected as part of the woody fuel consumption project (WFCP) in south-west Western Australia and northern-central Victoria. Three additional datasets were also sourced to increase variability in forest type, fuel complex and fire characteristics. These datasets comprised data from south-west Western Australia collected as part of Project Aquarius, the Warra Long Term Ecological Research site in Tasmania and Tumbarumba in south-eastern New South Wales. Combined the dataset represents a range of fire behaviour characteristic of prescribed burning conditions with a maximum fireline intensity of almost 4000 kW m-1. Woody fuel consumption was found to be highly variable between sites ranging from 9.1\% to 89.9\%. Relationships between woody fuel consumption and the primary model drivers were weak (maximum R2 = 0.097). Model evaluation statistics were best for the National Carbon Accounting Systems assumption of 50\% with a mean absolute error of 11.1\% fuel consumption and minimal bias (0.12). Nonetheless, this assumption does not capture large deviations where woody fuel consumption has been particularly high or low. The BURNUP model yielded the largest level of error when used with natural fuels however its predictive capacity improved when used with large modified fuel loads resulting from clearcut operations.}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2010.06.007}, author = {Jennifer J Hollis and Stuart Matthews and Ottmar, R.D. and S.J. Prichard and Slijepcevic, A. and Burrows, N.D. and Ward, B. and Tolhurst, K.G. and Wendy R. Anderson and J.S. Gould} } @article {BF-1009, title = {Field Guide- Fuel assessment and fire behaviour prediction in dry euclaypt forest}, volume = {82}, year = {2007}, month = {11/01/2007}, institution = {Ensis- CSIRO \& Department of Enivironment and Conservation, WA}, author = {J.S. Gould and Lachlan W. McCaw and Cheney, NP and Ellis, Peter and Stuart Matthews} }