@article {bnh-8355, title = {Representing vapour and capillary rise from the soil improves a leaf litter moisture model}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {612}, year = {2022}, month = {06/2022}, abstract = {

Litter moisture content plays a critical role in fire danger rating systems and forest ecosystems. Soil moisture content has been proposed to affect litter moisture due to vapour flux and capillary rise from the soil. However, few models consider soil water content when predicting litter moisture, and to our knowledge, no model includes capillary fluxes. In this study, we represented soil moisture coupling in a physics-based litter moisture prediction model by describing the vapour and capillary fluxes from the soil to litter. We aimed to evaluate if litter moisture predictions can be improved by incorporating the hydrological process at the soil-litter interface and explored the possible role of soil moisture in litter moisture simulations. Three model versions were compared against observations at a dry and wet experimental site in Australia: the original physics-based model, a model version extended with soil vapour flux only, and a version that incorporates both soil vapour flux and capillary rise. The simulation results suggest that soil moisture considerably influences litter moisture through soil vapour flux and capillary rise, which can lead to more than 10\% of oven-dried weight, particularly under wet soil conditions. The corresponding model showed the best performance in comparison with field observations. The contribution of upward soil moisture fluxes was small after long dry and warm periods but noticeable during more moist periods. Further research is needed to evaluate the revised model for a broader range of weather, soil and litter conditions.

}, keywords = {capillary rise, fuel moisture content, leaf litter, Soil moisture, vapour flux}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128087}, url = {sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S002216942200662X}, author = {Li Zhao and Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-7761, title = {The influence of soil moisture on surface and sub-surface litter fuel moisture simulation at five Australian sites}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {298-299}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, abstract = {

Fuel moisture content (FMC) of the litter is a critical factor determining fire ignition and spread and is an important input for most fire behaviour prediction models. Several models, ranging from empirical regression functions to physics-based models, have been developed to forecast litter FMC. Soil moisture below the litter layer has been shown to influence litter FMC, but few models explicitly consider its effect. This study aimed to evaluate how soil moisture content may affect litter FMC by coupling soil moisture as a boundary condition to the physics-based {\textquoteleft}Koba{\textquoteright} model, which simulates radiation, energy and moisture fluxes in the surface and subsurface litter layer. The coupled model was tested at five sites in Victoria, Australia, where litter FMC values were recorded continuously during 2014-2015 using calibrated fuel stick sensors. Two versions of the model were compared against the observations: an uncoupled model and a model version accounting for the vapour flux from soil to litter. The simulation results show that the influence of soil moisture depends on environmental conditions. Soil moisture appeared to have a minor influence on FMC when both soil and litter are dry, but a stronger influence when the soil is relatively wet. Correspondingly, the coupled model explained observed FMC better than the uncoupled model for the two wetter study sites. As expected, the subsurface litter in contact with the soil appeared more sensitive to soil moisture conditions than the surface litter. The influence of soil vapour flux on litter FMC can be considerable during the transition from wet to dry litter and soil conditions. This has implications for hazard reduction burning, which is typically planned to take advantage of transitional fuel moisture conditions. Further research is needed to understand the influence of the structure and thickness of litter on the importance of soil vapour flux.

}, keywords = {Coupled model, Dead fuel, forecast, fuel moisture content, Soil moisture}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108282}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0168192320303841?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Li Zhao and Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Stuart Matthews and Gary J. Sheridan} } @article {bnh-7475, title = {Exploring the key drivers of forest flammability in wet eucalypt forests using expert-derived conceptual models}, journal = {Landscape Ecology}, volume = {35}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, pages = {1775{\textendash}1798}, abstract = {

Context

Fire behaviour research has largely focused on dry ecosystems that burn frequently, with far less attention on wetter forests. Yet, the impacts of fire in wet forests can be high and therefore understanding the drivers of fire in these\ systems\ is vital.

Objectives

We sought to identify and rank by importance the factors plausibly driving flammability in wet eucalypt forests, and describe relationships between them. In doing so, we formulated a set of research priorities.

Methods

Conceptual models of forest flammability in wet eucalypt forests were elicited from 21 fire experts using a combination of elicitation techniques. Forest flammability was defined using fire occurrence and fireline intensity as measures of ignitability and heat release rate, respectively.

Results

There were shared and divergent opinions about the drivers of flammability in wet eucalypt forests. Widely agreed factors were drought, dead fine fuel moisture content, weather and topography. These factors all influence the availability of biomass to burn, albeit their effects and interactions on various dimensions of flammability are poorly understood. Differences between the models related to lesser understood factors (e.g. live and coarse fuel moisture, plant traits, heatwaves) and the links between factors.

Conclusions

By documenting alternative conceptual models, we made shared and divergent opinions explicit about flammability in wet forests. We identified four priority research areas: (1) quantifying drought and fuel moisture thresholds for fire occurrence and intensity, (2) modelling microclimate in dense vegetation and rugged terrain, (3) determining the attributes of live vegetation that influence forest flammability, (4) evaluating fire management strategies.

}, keywords = {Cognitive mapping, Conceptual models, Expert elicitation, Fire behaviour, fire intensity, flammability, Structured decision-making, Structured expert judgement, Wet forest, Wildfire}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01055-z}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-020-01055-z}, author = {Jane Cawson and Victoria Hemming and Ackland, A and Wendy R. Anderson and David Bowman and Ross Bradstock and Brown, T and Jamie Burton and Geoffrey J. Cary and Thomas Duff and Alex Filkov and Furlaud, James M. and Tim Gazzard and Kilinc, Musa and Petter Nyman and Ross Peacock and Mike Ryan and Jason J. Sharples and Gary J. Sheridan and Tolhurst, K.G. and Tim Wells and Phil Zylstra and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-7390, title = {Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts {\textendash} final project report}, number = {616}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fuel condition (e.g. moisture content, horizontal and vertical continuity and the quantity or load) affect flammability and therefore is a key determinant of the ease of ignition and the spread rate of a fire. Many research institutions and management services are investing an important amount of resources on field-based fuel condition monitoring to understand its dynamics and support operational fire management activities. However, field sampling is expensive and time-consuming, sometimes subjective and implies also a delay time until the data are processed and made available. The Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC project {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazards and Impacts{\textquoteright} used cutting-edge technology to produce near-real-time spatial information on fuel condition, fire hazard and impact to support a wide range of fire risk management and response activities such as hazard reduction burning and pre-positioning firefighting resources and, in the longer term, the new Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) given it considers fuel condition as ne of the key factors required to determine fire danger and support other decision -making.

The first phase of this project (2014-2017) involved the parallel investigation of several promising data sources and methods that can be categorised as either {\textquoteleft}in-field{\textquoteright} (grassland curing on-ground sensors and ground-based LiDAR laser scanning for fuel structure characterisation) or {\textquoteleft}national-scale{\textquoteright} (the Australian Flammability Monitoring System-AFMS, and the High-resolution Fire Risk and Impact (HiFRI) model-data fusion framework) methods. Generally, information derived from the national-scale methods appeared to represent enough accuracy and better return on investment and generated greater interest among end-users.

Consequently, over 2017-2020, this research project focused on ensuring the continuity of the AFMS but further developing the algorithms to estimate fuel moisture content (FMC), and through this, its acceptance and adoption. The AFMS provides information on FMC and flammability across Australia at 500m resolution every four days. It also displays information on soil moisture content near the surface (0-10 cm) and shallow soils (10-35 cm) as research outcomes from the project {\textquotedblleft}Improving land dryness measures and forecast{\textquotedblright}. Our research project also improved estimates of litter FMC by incorporating the effect of soil moisture content in existing physics-based models, developed a methodology to map fuel loads using satellite data and an objective and observation-based approach to assess fire danger that considers spatial data on the occurrence of actual fires as well as on fire factors that are already routinely produced every day for Australia.

The improved litter FMC, fuel load and fire danger retrieval algorithms and products derived from this project are not yet included in the AFMS nor generated at near real-time and across Australia. Further research and development is needed to make that step and providing landscape scale, cost-effective way to comprehensively monitor fuel condition and fire danger at such a broad scale. Consequently, future research should focus on developing a multi-sensor system that will display daily information on fire danger and fuel condition from whatever satellite sensor has collected an image over Australia, including high-resolution satellite imagery. This will improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the information we currently provide at the AFMS that will allow the identification of, for example, local fuel moisture gradients in the landscape that are currently not identifiable using the 500m pixel resolution of the product we currently serve in the AFMS.

The use of high-resolution satellite imagery will provide an unprecedented level of detail and accuracy when estimating fuel condition, bringing the system closer to use in operations. However, the data volumes and large compute resources required to store and generate these high-resolution products becomes a challenge. Consequently, future research should also focus on developing an alternative methodology for computing fuel condition that can provide up to date estimations by reducing the required storage and computing resources using state-of-the-art artificial intelligence algorithms.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, hazard, impacts, mapping}, issn = {616}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-5430, title = {Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts Annual Report 2017-2018}, number = {462}, year = {2019}, month = {03/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {
Understanding and predicting fire behaviour is a priority for fire services, land managers and sometimes individual businesses and residents. This is an\ enormous scientific challenge given bushfires are complex phenomena, with\ their behaviour and resultant severity driven\ by\ complicated interactions\ among living and dead vegetation, topography and weather conditions.\ A good understanding of fire risk across the landscape is critical in preparing\ and responding to bushfire events and managing fire regimes, and remote\ sensing data will enhance this understanding. However, the vast array of spatial\ data sources available is not being used ve\ ry effectively in fire management.\ This project uses remote sensing observations\ to\ produce spatial information on\ fire hazard and impacts needed by planners, land managers and emergency\ services\ to effectively manage fire at landscape scales. The group works\ closely with ACT Parks and Conservation Service and agencies beyond the\ ACT to better understand their procedures and information needs, comparing\ these with the spatial data and mapping methods that are readily available,\ and developing the next generation of mapping technologies to help them\ prepare and respond to bushfires.
}, keywords = {Bushfire, fire impacts, hazards, mapping fire}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-5928, title = {Mapping bushfire hazards and impacts annual report 2018-2019}, number = {511}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report is the output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC (BNHCRC), Project A1 {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It summarises the project objectives, introduces the team members as well as documents the project progress and outcomes during the financial year 2018/2019.

During this financial year we have:

  1. Worked on a comprehensive characterization of fire risk conditions through the integration of fire weather, dead Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) and total biomass into the Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS);
  2. Worked on AFMS website version 3 that incorporated feedback on the trial utilisation of the data service;
  3. Evaluated the feasibility and benefits of the operational use of alternative satellite data in AFMS to ensure long-term data continuity;
  4. Coupled a process-based model that simulates litter fuel moisture and a distributed biophysical model (the Australian Water Resources Assessment system Landscape model) to predict dead fuel moisture content;
  5. Published six journal manuscripts, seventeen conference abstracts and one milestone reports with another one in preparation. We have also had eight appearances in the media;
  6. Hosted two international exchange visits and were approached by more than 30 domestic and international applicants for a PhD scholarship or postdoc position in bushfire research; and
  7. Submitted an application for utilisation funds from the BNHCRC to develop a high-resolution prototype version of AFMS.

Over the next year (2019-2020), this research project will focus on finishing the analysis on the fire risk index as well as using remote sensing data to derive spatial and temporal explicit fuel accumulation curves. In terms of utilization, we will liaise with Geoscience Australia (GA) on transitioning the AFMS as GA has agreed to be in charge of the long term operationalization and maintenance.

}, keywords = {bushfires, fire behavior, fire impacts, hazards, impacts, mapping}, issn = {511}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Li Zhao and Honghao Zeng} } @conference {bnh-6397, title = {Towards comprehensive characterisation of flammability and fire danger }, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire danger ratings inform the community and fire managing agencies of fire risk. Fire danger ratings are currently primarily based on fire danger indices (FDIs) calculated using methods that were developed many decades ago. The challenges and issues with these methods are well documented. We aimed to develop a more objective and observation-based approach to fire danger assessment that considers spatial data on the occurrence of actual fires as well as on fire factors that are already routinely produced every day for Australia. A preliminary assessment suggested a very good potential of the methodology to formally and objectively incorporate any new fire danger predictors. The method can be combined with forecasted rather than observed weather and fuel conditions to produce forward predictions of expected FDI.

}, keywords = {Fire danger rating, fire factors, risk managemnt}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Albert van Dijk and Marta Yebra and Geoffrey J. Cary and Sami Shah} } @article {bnh-5201, title = {Australian Flammability Monitoring System Version 1.0: User feedback and priorities for further development}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In response to the information requirements expressed by end users, the Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC project {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazards and Impacts{\textquoteright} (Project A1) developed the Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS)
website (version 1.0). The AFMS makes spatial information on fuel condition and flammability easier and faster to access.

This report summarises feedback received from end users and discusses priorities for future development that may potentially be addressed by the BNHCRC and the project team in future.

All end users involved in the project, and participating in several seminars and presentations featuring the AFMS, recognised the value of the system to improve fire management in Australia. However, they also identified some significant barriers to adoption by the Australian bushfire sector. Firstly, neither FMC nor FI are presently used in any models or systems. This means that the sector needs to explore the information and develop work processes for using it. Another key barrier is the timeliness of the system. It presently takes 15 days to acquire the satellite data, process and publish. This delay is too long to allow practitioners to trial the system during operations.

Consequently, future priorities for further development should focus on activities that will contribute to strengthening the usability of the AFMS and adoption. As a first step, we need to invest more time working with end users to develop specific operational applications and integrate the information displayed in the AFMS into current decision processes and tools (e.g. the ACT Parks and Conservation Service{\textquoteright}s Prescribe Burn Decision Tool). Meanwhile, we also need to improve timeliness, robustness, visual presentation and explanation of the information displayed on the AFMS website to make it easier for users to extract the important details.

The implementation of the AFMS into daily fire management operations will take fire management in Australia to a new level.

}, issn = {437}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-5217, title = {Evaluation of the feasibility and benefits of operational use of alternative satellite data in the Australian Flammability Monitoring System to ensure long-term data continuity}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS) is the first, continental-scale prototype web service providing spatial information on Live Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) and landscape flammability conditions derived from satellite observations. The system uses data from the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer) instruments on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, providing estimates of FMC and flammability over a fortnight leading up to the day of interest and at 500 m spatial resolution. The Terra and Aqua satellites have already exceeded the expected lifetime and, at some point in the not-too-distant future, will become inoperative.

To support the AFMS continuity and redundancy strategy, we evaluate the feasibility and relative benefits of using alternative remote sensing imagery in the AFMS to provide finer spatial and temporal resolutions. The evaluated data sources include the geostationary Japanese Himawari-8 satellite (10min, 2km), the European Sentinel-2 (5 days, 20 m), the Landsat (16 days, 30m) and VIIRS (daily, 750 m) satellites.

We use Radiative Transfer Models to build a database of simulated spectra for the different studied sensors and corresponding to different FMC conditions. The database is then used to test the suitability of the different sensor to retrieve FMC based on their different spectral characteristics and goodness of retrieval (e.g. r2 and RMSE between retrieved and modelled).

VIIRS obtained the highest accuracy retrieval (r2=0.8, RMSE=19\%, n=6178) followed by Sentinel-2 (r2=0.8, RMSE=23, n=6178), Landsat-8 (r2=0.8, RMSE=24, n=6178) and Himawari-8 (r2=0.7, RMSE=24, n=6178). These results were expected as VIIRS has a larger number of sensor bands (5 bands) in the Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) followed by Sentinel-2 (3 bands), Landsat and Himawari-8 (two bands each).

VIIRS, therefore, is likely the best candidate to ensure the AFMS website data provision continuity. Sentinel-2 (3 bands) and Himawari-8 are the best second and third candidates that obtain similar accuracies while increasing the spatial (Sentinel-2, 20m) and temporal (Himawari-8, 10 minutes) resolutions of the products displayed in the AFMS.

Future work will focus on integrating estimates from these different data sources to better support a range of fire management activities such as prescribed burning and pre-positioning of firefighting resources and inform the future National Fire Danger Rating System.

}, issn = {448}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-4586, title = {A fuel moisture content and flammability monitoring methodology for continental Australia based on optical remote sensing}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {212}, year = {2018}, month = {06/2018}, pages = {12}, chapter = {260}, abstract = {

Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) is one of the primary drivers affecting fuel flammability that lead to fires. Satellite observations well-grounded with field data over the highly climatologically and ecologically diverse Australian region served to estimate FMC and flammability for the first time at a continental-scale. The methodology includes a physically-based retrieval model to estimate FMC from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) reflectance data using radiative transfer model inversion. The algorithm was evaluated using 360 observations at 32 locations around Australia with mean accuracy for the studied land cover classes (grassland, shrubland, and forest) close to those obtained elsewhere (r2 = 0.58, RMSE = 40\%) but without site-specific calibration. Logistic regression models were developed to generate a flammability index, trained on fire events mapped in the MODIS burned area product and four predictor variables calculated from the FMC estimates. The selected predictor variables were actual FMC corresponding to the 8-day and 16-day period before burning; the same but expressed as an anomaly from the long-term mean for that date; and the FMC change between the two successive 8-day periods before burning. Separate logistic regression models were developed for grassland, shrubland and forest. The models obtained an {\textquotedblleft}Area Under the Curve{\textquotedblright} calculated from the Receiver Operating Characteristic plot method of 0.70, 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, indicating reasonable skill in fire risk prediction.

}, keywords = {Fire occurrence, Fire risk, Forests., GEOPROSAIL inversion, Grasslands, MODIS, PROSAIL inversion, Shrubs}, doi = {10.1016}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425718302116$\#$.WvZrg57h8og.twitter}, author = {Marta Yebra and Xingwen Quan and David Ria{\~n}o and Pablo Rozas Larraondo and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-5051, title = {Mapping bushfire hazards and impacts: annual project report 2017-18}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Understanding and predicting fire behaviour is a priority for fire services, land managers and sometimes individual businesses and residents. This is an enormous scientific challenge given bushfires are complex phenomena, with\  their behaviour and resultant severity driven by complicated interactions among living and dead vegetation, topography and weather conditions.\ 

}, issn = {426}, author = {Marta Yebra and Geoffrey J. Cary and Albert van Dijk} } @conference {bnh-3914, title = {The Australian Flammability Monitoring System}, booktitle = {AFAC17}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Sydney}, abstract = {

The Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS) is the first, continental-scale prototype web explorer providing spatial information on current Live Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) and landscape-scale fuel flammability derived from satellite observations. The satellite observations are converted into FMC using a radiative transfer modelling inversion approach. Evaluation of the FMC estimates using 408 observations at 35 locations around Australia shows similar accuracies (r2=0.60, RMSE=39\%) across the vegetation classes studied (grassland, shrubland and forest) to those derived elsewhere globally. Flammability estimates are calculated using logistic regression models relating fire occurrence to FMC. Separate prediction models were developed for grassland, shrubland and forest, obtaining performance metrics (Area Under the Curve) of 0.70, 0.78 and 0.71, respectively (where skillful predictions range between 0.5 and1). A web-based data explorer will be available to fire and land management agencies and any other interested parties in all states and territories. The AFMS can support a range of fire management activities such as prescribed burning and pre-positioning of firefighting resources and can inform the future National Fire Danger Rating System.

}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Xingwen Quan and Joel Rahman and Zac H. Dodds and Pablo Rozas} } @article {bnh-4196, title = {Mapping bushfire hazards and impacts: annual project report 2016-17}, number = {308}, year = {2017}, month = {09/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report is output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC, {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It summarises the project objectives, introduces the team members as well as documents the project progress and outcomes during the financial year 2016/2017.

In consultation with the end users we have identified a subset of key outputs that have the highest utilisation potential, and that will be the focus of our work program in the future.

On those lines, the project team has made considerable progress this financial year towards the validation and increased accessibility to the {\textquotedblleft}Australian Flammability Monitoring System{\textquotedblright} for operational prediction of live fuel moisture content (FMC) and flammability in Australia. In this regard, we have created a prototype web service to make spatial information on FMC and flammability easier and faster to access.

Additionally we have:

1)\ \ \  Evaluated the suitability of coarse resolution near-surface soil moisture data to improve the McArthur forest fire danger index

2)\ \ \  Undertaken development of a predictive model for estimating forest surface fuel load with LiDAR data

3)\ \ \  Developed a satellite-based method for the estimation of grassland aboveground biomass

4)\ \ \  Published four journal manuscript with another three currently in review and one invited book chapter in preparation, ten conference abstracts and two milestone reports;

5)\ \ \  Hosted two international exchange visits and were approached by more than 30 domestic and international applicants for a PhD scholarship or postdoc position in bushfire research; and

Over the next three years (2017-2020), this research project will focus on increasing the understanding, reliability and long-term continuity of the AFMS, and through this, its acceptance and adoption. Also, a small number of promising, low-cost in-field techniques will continue to be investigated to improve their cost/benefit ratio and utility.

}, issn = {308}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-3920, title = {Using alternative soil moisture estimates in the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2017}, month = {08/2017}, abstract = {

McArthur{\textquoteright}s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) incorporates the Keetch{\textendash}Byram Drought Index (KBDI) estimate of soil dryness. Improved approaches for estimating soil moisture now exist, with potential for informing the calculation of FFDI. We evaluated the effect, compared with KBDI, of two alternative methods of estimating soil moisture: the rainfall-based Antecedent Precipitation Index and soil moisture from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity satellite mission. These methods were used to calculate FFDI over a sample period of 5\ years (2010{\textendash}14) at seven locations around Australia. The effect of substituting the alternatives for KBDI, and of entirely replacing the Drought Factor (DF) (a measure of fuel availability in FFDI) with the alternatives was explored by studying the effect on magnitude, distribution and timing of FFDI and associated Fire Danger Rating (FDR). Both approaches predicted drier soil conditions than KBDI, resulting in fewer Low{\textendash}Moderate FDR days and more days of High FDR and above. The alternative methods replacing KBDI had little effect on seasonal patterns of FDR. Of all approaches, replacing DF entirely with the soil moisture alternatives most closely mimicked McArthur{\textquoteright}s FFDI. Overall, if alternative measures of soil moisture are adopted for FFDI, the entire replacement of the DF term should be considered.

}, doi = {10.1071/WF16217}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF16217}, author = {C.M Holgate and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Marta Yebra} } @article {bnh-4352, title = {You own the fuel, but who owns the fire?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {26}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, pages = {999-1008}, chapter = {999}, abstract = {

In this paper, we argue that the statement {\textquoteleft}Whoever owns the fuel owns the fire{\textquoteright} implies a duty on landowners to manage fuel on their land to reduce the likelihood of bushfires, however started, from spreading to neighbouring properties. However, the notion {\textquoteleft}Whoever owns the fuel owns the fire{\textquoteright} has not been analysed from a legal perspective. This paper reviews Australian law to identify who is legally responsible for fire that starts on privately owned land. We argue that the correct interpretation of existing Australian law is: {\textquoteleft}Whoever owns the ignition owns the fire{\textquoteright} {\textendash} that is, liability to pay for losses caused by bushfire has always fallen on those that intentionally start a fire, not on the owner of the fuel that sustains the fire. That legal conclusion could have dramatic implications for fire management policies. It will be shown that liability for starting a prescribed burn is clear-cut whereas liability for allowing accumulated fuel loads to contribute to the spread of fire is almost unheard of. As a result, we argue that the law is pushing landowners in a direction away from the policy direction adopted by all Australian governments. After identifying the current legal position, we recommend changes to align the law with the national policy direction.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17070}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF17070}, author = {Michael Eburn and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-3094, title = {Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {227}, year = {2016}, month = {09/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report is an output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC, Project {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It summarizes the project objectives, introduces the team members as well as documents the project progress and outcomes during the financial year 2015/2016.

The project team has made considerable progress this financial year and has generated a number of nationwide products. More specifically this financial year we have:

1)\ \ \  developed and tested the {\textquotedblleft}Bushfire Information System{\textquotedblright} with potential for operational prediction of live fuel moisture content and fire occurrence in Australia;

2)\ \ \  analyzed the suitability of near-surface soil moisture data to improve the McArthur forest fire danger index;

3)\ \ \  tested a forest carbon uptake estimation model constrained with remote sensing data at 25 m to 5 km resolution and evaluated against field data; and

4)\ \ \  Developed a predictive model for estimating forest surface fuel load with LiDAR data.

We have also completed some activities initialized during the previous financial year including:

1)\ \ \  the development and testing of a new software tool to automatically derive detailed vegetation structure information from ground-based LiDAR; and

2)\ \ \  testing an on-ground network of curing/FMC sensors.

We have maintained an effective and engaging relationship with project end users. The most intensive interactions have been with ACT Parks and Conservation, with whom the team collaborates closely, including in an operational setting. However, now that we have generated a number of nationwide products, more end users are identifying how they can practically engage in the research. This has led to a large number of follow-up projects that have been requested and will be addressed as much as possible over the next years, contingent on future project funding.

Additionally we:

1)\ \ \  published 1 journal manuscript with another 6 currently in review and one invited book chapter in preparation, 10 conference abstracts, one conference paper and 3 milestone reports;

2)\ \ \  hosted three international exchange visits and were approached by more than 15 domestic and international applicants for a PhD scholarship or postdoc position in bushfire research; and

3)\ \ \  in consultation with the end users, identified a subset of key outputs that have the highest utilisation potential, and that will be the focus of our work program in the future.

}, issn = {227}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-3282, title = {Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {139}, year = {2016}, month = {11/2016}, pages = {85-99}, chapter = {85}, abstract = {

Bushfires are one of the most frequent natural hazards experienced in Australia. Fires play an important role in shaping the landscape and its ecological dynamics, but may also have devastating effects that cause human injuries and fatalities, as well as broad-scale environmental damage. While there has been considerable effort to quantify changes in the occurrence of bushfire in Australia, a comprehensive assessment of the most extreme bushfire cases, which exact the greatest economic and environmental impacts, is lacking. In this paper we reflect upon recently developed understanding of bushfire dynamics to consider (i) historical changes in the occurrence of extreme bushfires, and (ii) the potential for increasing frequency in the future under climate change projections. The science of extreme bushfires is still a developing area, thus our conclusions about emerging patterns in their occurrence should be considered tentative. Nonetheless, historical information on noteworthy bushfire events suggests an increased occurrence in recent decades. Based on our best current understanding of how extreme bushfires develop, there is strong potential for them to increase in frequency in the future. As such there is a pressing need for a greater understanding of these powerful and often destructive phenomena.

}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1811-1}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1811-1}, author = {Jason J. Sharples and Geoffrey J. Cary and Paul Fox-Hughes and Mooney, Scott and Jason P. Evans and Fletcher, Michael-Shawn and Michael Fromm and Grierson, Pauline and Rick McRae and Baker, Patrick} } @conference {bnh-2951, title = {You own the fuel but who owns the fire?}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

The statement {\textquoteleft}Whoever owns the fuel owns the fire{\textquoteright} was coined during the 1994 Sydney bushfires1 and is attributed to Phil Cheney,2 the then Project Leader for Bushfire Behaviour and Management in CSIRO and a former Director of the National Bushfire Research Unit. Cheney and Sullivan3 say: {\textquoteleft}The landholder effectively owns the fuel and so determines whether the fire can spread and how intense it will be. In other words, the landholder owns the fire.{\textquoteright}

}, author = {Michael Eburn and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-2402, title = {Mapping bushfire hazard and impact}, year = {2015}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-2311, title = {Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {119}, year = {2015}, month = {10/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report is an output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC Project {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It summarises the project objectives, introduces the team members as well as documents the project progress and outcomes during the finantial year 2014/2015.\ The project team has made great progress this year as demonstrated by:

1)\ \ \  Developing a model framework, the High-resolution Fire Risk and Impact (HiFRI) framework, to provide best possible estimates on forest fuel load and moisture content and fire impacts on landscape values such as water resource generation and carbon storage.

2)\ \ \  Developing and tested a new software tool based in MATLAB to automatically derive detailed vegetation structure information from ground-based LiDAR

3)\ \ \  Successfully obtaining two student top-up scholarships from BNHCRC, what will have further positive impacts on the quality of our research.

4)\ \ \  Maintaining a healthy and engaging relationship with end users. The strongest connections have been with ACT Parks and Conservation, with whom the team collaborate closely and hands-on. However, the expectations are that once the project team have been able to demonstrate the practical value of research in the ACT, additional end users will find it easier to see how they can concretely engage in the research.

5)\ \ \  Publishing 1 journal paper, 4 conference abstracts and 2 milestone reports. In addition another manuscript is currently under review with Remote Sensing of Environment,top-ranked in the category of remote sensing.

6)\ \ \  Communicating progress on the research goals to end users by organising two workshops with operational stakeholders and other researchersandpublishing divulgative material in blogs and other media.

7)\ \ \  Receiving international researchers exchange visits and being approached by more than 15 domestic and international requests for PhD scholarships or postdoc positions on the topic of bushfire research. Of particular interest has been our innovative work in LiDAR vegetation mapping.

}, issn = {119}, author = {Marta Yebra and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-1883, title = {A model-data fusion framework for estimating fuel properties, vegetation growth, carbon storage and the water balance at hillslope scale}, year = {2015}, month = {06/2015}, abstract = {

This progress report is an output from the Bushfire and National Hazards CRC, Project A1 {\textquoteleft}Mapping Bushfire Hazard and Impacts{\textquoteright}. It documents the first steps in the development of a model-data fusion framework to provide estimates on historic fire impacts on landscape values, as well as potentially real-time estimates of current fuel load and flammability. Model-data fusion refers to the blending of observations with model predictions by considering the error in both.

A case study area was undertaken to analyse the value of alternative airborne and remote sensing observations in a model-data fusion framework. The data were used to set up a spatial forest growth, water use and carbon uptake model at high (25 m) spatial resolution and daily time step. The model shares a common heritage with the Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape (AWRA-L) water balance model used by the Bureau of Meteorology, and includes coupled models of water, carbon and biomass (fuel) dynamics that can be applied at high resolution. The model-data fusion framework is provisionally referred to here as the High-resolution Fire Risk and Impact (HiFRI) framework.

The case study comprised the period 2000-2010 for the western ACT, including native forests, plantation forests and grasslands. Much of the area was burnt in 2003. The data integrated within HiFRI included high-resolution Landsat imagery, a digital elevation model and daily climate grids. The case study demonstrated that it is feasible to produce estimates of water and carbon balance variables. The results show strong slope effects associated with solar irradiance. Integrating satellite observations also showed the expected influence from vegetation regrowth after the fire.

}, author = {Albert van Dijk and Marta Yebra and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {bnh-1661, title = {Using LiDAR for forest and fuel structure mapping: options, benefits, requirements and costs}, number = {64}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Understanding fuel structure is important for assessing suppression difficulty, risk of damage from bushfires, monitoring fuel build up and planning hazard reduction programs. Technologies such as airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) can provide precise information about fuel structure over larger areas. However, the use of LiDAR by fire managers is still in the early stages and has not been implemented through any routine operational program in Australia.

This report aims to address this situation by describing and evaluating the maturity and suitability of airborne LiDAR to derive the different types of information needed in forest fuel assessment. It does so through a set of questions scoped in consultation with fire managers through the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project {\textquoteleft}Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts{\textquoteright}. The language and technical detail is aimed at a wide audience with fields of expertise outside LiDAR.

This report first covers some of the basic principles on LiDAR and then focuses on the analysis of the information content and accuracy of airborne LiDAR to retrieve the forest fuel attributes that are important for fire management. The information that can be derived about the height, cover fraction and density of different over- and understorey layers is assessed, along with other useful information that may be derived. Additional measurements that help to make more optimal use of airborne LiDAR data are presented, including terrestrial laser scanning, UAV-borne LiDAR, and airborne imaging. Guidance is provided on discovering existing LiDAR data, factors determining the cost of new LiDAR data acquisition, and options for processing the data. Finally, the current and future development in the use of LiDAR for fire management are discussed.

Summarising, airborne LiDAR may be considered a mature data product that is commercially available, using established data standards. However, standardised data specifications and processing methods for applications in fuel mapping do not yet exist. Essential aspects to consider are the type of fuel information, accuracy and spatial detail desired. Greater data density can increase accuracy and spatial detail, but will also increase the cost of acquisition. In forests with a dense overstorey canopy high data density may be the only way to obtain information on the understorey. In small-scale applications, field or UAV-mounted LiDAR systems may be a suitable alternative for airborne LiDAR.

Priority areas for research and development to achieve more cost-effective and successful use of LiDAR by the fire management community were identified. This includes the development of standardised methods to acquire and process airborne LiDAR data for fuel mapping, the validation of these methods using field measurements, and investigation of full-waveform airborne LiDAR as a promising alternative to current LiDAR data collection methods. The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project {\textquoteleft}Mapping bushfire hazard and impacts{\textquoteright} is working with end users to pursue each of these lines of enquiry.

}, issn = {64}, author = {Marta Yebra and Marselis, S and Albert van Dijk and Geoffrey J. Cary and Chen, Yang} } @article {BF-4287, title = {The effect of patch area on birds in central Australian Mulga ({\textquoteright}acacia aneura{\textquoteright}) woodland of different times-since-fire}, journal = {Pacific Conservation Biology}, volume = {19}, year = {2013}, month = {03/2013}, pages = {28-38}, chapter = {28}, abstract = {It is often assumed that a fine-scaled mosaic of different times-since-fire supports greater biodiversity than a coarsescaled mosaic - the fire mosaic hypothesis. A potential mechanism of the fire mosaic hypothesis is the effect of area on species diversity. We investigated the effect of patch area on bird communities in mulga (Acacia aneura) woodland in central Australia. The study was conducted at Uluru Kata-Tjuta National Park using 55 fixed-area sites classified to the time since last fire: burnt 2002; burnt 1976 and long unburnt. Birds were surveyed in the winter and spring of 2005 and 2006. Of 20 key species, two showed a positive density-area effect (i.e. higher density in larger patches). Patch area did not affect total bird density or species richness. However, species turnover ( -diversity) was greater in large patches in the burnt 2002 treatment than it was in small patches. There was no effect of patch area on the composition of the bird communities in any of the time-since-fire classes. We concluded that patch area did affect the distribution of some birds in mulga woodland. However, patch area was not a mechanism of the fire mosaic hypothesis because the effects of patch size tended to increase avian diversity in larger patches rather than small.}, keywords = {Biodiversity conservation, Bird surveys, Landscape protection, Planning}, issn = {1038-2097}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=431001814188300;res=IELHSS}, author = {Adam J. Leavesley and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {BF-4286, title = {Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling}, journal = {Ecological Modelling}, volume = {266}, year = {2013}, month = {09/2013}, pages = {172-186}, chapter = {172}, abstract = {An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide future land management and planning. However, quantification of landscape change from vegetation development and disturbance effects is difficult because of the large space and long time scales involved. Comparative simulation modeling experiments, using a suite of models to simulate a set of scenarios, can provide a platform for investigating landscape change over more ecologically appropriate time and space scales that control vegetation and disturbance. We implemented a multifactorial simulation experiment using five landscape fire succession models to explore the role of fire and vegetation development under various climates on a neutral landscape. The simulation experiment had four factors with two or three treatments each: (1) fire (fire and no fire), (2) succession (dynamic and static succession), (3) climate (historical, warm-wet, warm-dry), and (4) weather (constant, variable). We found that, under historical climates, succession changed more area annually than fire by factors of 1.2 to 34, but one model simulated more landscape change from fire (factor of 0.1). However, we also found that fire becomes more important in warmer future climates with factors decreasing to below zero for most models. We also found that there were few differences in simulation results between weather scenarios with low or high variability. Results from this study show that there will be a shift from vegetation processes that control today{\textquoteright}s landscape dynamics to fire processes under future warmer and drier climates, and this shift means that detailed representations of both succession and fire should be incorporated into models to realistically simulate interactions between disturbance and vegetation.}, keywords = {Landscape dynamics, Landscape ecology, Model comparison, Simulation modeling, Succession, wildland fire}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.06.020}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438001300313X}, author = {Robert E. Keane and Geoffrey J. Cary and Flannigan, Mike D. and Parsons, Russell A. and Davies, Ian D. and Karen J. King and Li, Chao and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm} } @article {BF-3624, title = {Future scenarios for Australian bushfires: Report on a Bushfire CRC workshop}, journal = {The Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {27}, year = {2012}, month = {July 2012}, pages = {34-40}, chapter = {34}, abstract = {A Bushfire CRC workshop on future bushfire scenarios was conducted at the Australian National University, Canberra, in November 2011. The workshop explored effects of global change on fire regimes, implications for socio-economic and environmental assets, potential mitigation strategies, and law and planning responses. These findings will be used to construct bushfire projections, and to assess implications for assets, including terrestrial carbon stocks and built assets in peri-urban environments, and their management. These analyses will provide critical input into economic evaluation of bushfires in Australian society, both currently and in the future. }, url = {http://www.em.gov.au/Publications/Australianjournalofemergencymanagement/Currentissue/Pages/AJEMvolume27\%20no\%203/FuturescenariosforAustralianbushfiresReportonaBushfireCRCworkshop.aspx}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Collett, Eddy and Gill, A. Malcolm and Helena Clayton and Dovers, Steve} } @inbook {BF-3789, title = {Global change and fire regimes in Australia}, booktitle = {Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World}, year = {2012}, publisher = {CSIRO Publishing}, organization = {CSIRO Publishing}, chapter = {7}, abstract = {In Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World, leading researchers in fire ecology and management discuss how fire regimes have shaped and will continue to shape the distribution and abundance of Australia{\textquoteright}s highly diverse plants and animals. Central to this is the exploration of the concept of the fire regime {\textendash} the cumulative pattern of fires and their individual characteristics (fire type, frequency, intensity, season) and how variation in regime components affects landscapes and their constituent biota. Contributions by 44 authors explore a wide range of topics including classical themes such as pre-history and evolution, fire behaviour, fire regimes in key biomes, plant and animal life cycles, remote sensing and modelling of fire regimes, and emerging issues such as climate change and fire regimes, carbon dynamics and opportunities for managing fire regimes for multiple benefits. In the face of significant global change, the conservation of our native species and ecosystems requires an understanding of the processes at play when fires and landscapes interact. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of this complex science, in the context of one of the world{\textquoteright}s most flammable continents.}, issn = {9780643104822}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/6836.htm}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Williams, RJ} } @inbook {BF-4297, title = {Global change and fire regimes in Australia}, booktitle = {Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World}, year = {2012}, pages = {149-170}, publisher = {CSIRO Publishing}, organization = {CSIRO Publishing}, chapter = {7}, abstract = {In Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World, leading researchers in fire ecology and management discuss how fire regimes have shaped and will continue to shape the distribution and abundance of Australia{\textquoteright}s highly diverse plants and animals. Central to this is the exploration of the concept of the fire regime {\textendash} the cumulative pattern of fires and their individual characteristics (fire type, frequency, intensity, season) and how variation in regime components affects landscapes and their constituent biota. Contributions by 44 authors explore a wide range of topics including classical themes such as pre-history and evolution, fire behaviour, fire regimes in key biomes, plant and animal life cycles, remote sensing and modelling of fire regimes, and emerging issues such as climate change and fire regimes, carbon dynamics and opportunities for managing fire regimes for multiple benefits. In the face of significant global change, the conservation of our native species and ecosystems requires an understanding of the processes at play when fires and landscapes interact. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of this complex science, in the context of one of the world{\textquoteright}s most flammable continents.}, isbn = {9780643104822}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/6836.htm}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Williams, RJ} } @article {BF-3786, title = {Implications of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 for grassland fire in south-east Australia: insights using the GRAZPLAN grassland simulation model}, year = {2012}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF11103.htm}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Karen J. King and Gill, A. Malcolm and Moore, AD} } @article {BF-3787, title = {Modelling the potential for prescribed burning to mitigate carbon emissions from wildfires in fire-prone forests of Australia}, year = {2012}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF11023.htm}, author = {Gill, A. Malcolm and Hutley, LB and Garry D. Cook and Jeremy Russell-Smith and Stefan Maier and Roxburgh, Stephen and Meyer, C.P. (Mick) and Damian J. Barrett and Keith, H and Ross Bradstock and Geoffrey J. Cary and Owen Price and Williams, RJ} } @article {BF-3788, title = {The World-Wide {\textquoteright}Wildfire{\textquoteright} Problem}, year = {2012}, url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/10-2213.1}, author = {Gill, A. Malcolm and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {BF-3095, title = {Prescribed burning: how can it work to conserve the things we value?}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {20}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, pages = {721}, abstract = {Prescribed burning is a commonly applied management tool, and there has been considerable debate over the efficacy of its application. We review data relating to the effectiveness of prescribed burning in Australia. Specifically, we address two questions: (1) to what extent can fuel reduction burning reduce the risk of loss of human life and economic assets posed from wildfires? (2) To what extent can prescribed burning be used to reduce the risk of biodiversity loss? Data suggest that prescribed burning can achieve a reduction in the extent of wildfires; however, at such levels, the result is an overall increase in the total area of the landscape burnt. Simulation modelling indicates that fuel reduction has less influence than weather on the extent of unplanned fire. The need to incorporate ecological values into prescribed burning programmes is becoming increasingly important. Insufficient data are available to determine if existing programs have been successful. There are numerous factors that prevent the implementation of better prescribed burning practices; most relate to a lack of clearly defined, measurable objectives. An adaptive risk management framework combined with enhanced partnerships between scientists and fire-management agencies is necessary to ensure that ecological and fuel reduction objectives are achieved.}, doi = {10.1071/WF09131}, author = {Trent Penman and Christie, Fiona J. and Andersen, A. N. and Ross Bradstock and Geoffrey J. Cary and Henderson, M. K. and Owen Price and Tran, C. and Wardle, G. M. and Williams, RJ and York, Alan} } @article {BF-2923, title = {Relationship between leaf traits and fire-response strategies in shrub species of a mountainous region of south-eastern Australia}, journal = {Annals of Botany}, year = {2011}, abstract = {{\textdagger} Background and Aims Resprouting and seed recruitment are important ways in which plants respond to fire. However, the investments a plant makes into ensuring the success of post-fire resprouting or seedling recruitment can result in trade-offs that are manifested in a range of co-occurring morphological, life history and physiological traits. Relationships between fire-response strategies and other traits have been widely examined in fire-prone Mediterranean-type climates. In this paper, we aim to determine whether shrubs growing in a non-Mediterranean climate region exhibit relationships between their fire-response strategy and leaf traits. {\textdagger} Methods Field surveys were used to classify species into fire-response types. We then compared specific leaf area, leaf dry-matter content, leaf width, leaf nitrogen and carbon to nitrogen ratios between (a) obligate seeders and all other resprouters, and (b) obligate seeders, facultative resprouters and obligate resprouters. {\textdagger} Key Results Leaf traits only varied between fire-response types when we considered facultative resprouters as a separate group to obligate resprouters, as observed after a large landscape-scale fire. We found no differences between obligate seeders and obligate resprouters, nor between obligate seeders and resprouters considered as one group. {\textdagger}Conclusions The results suggest that facultative resprouters may require a strategy of rapid resource acquisition and fast growth in order to compete with species that either resprout, or recruit from seed. However, the overall lack of difference between obligate seeders and obligate resprouters suggests that environmental factors are exerting similar effects on species{\textquoteright} ecological strategies, irrespective of the constraints and trade-offs that may be associated with obligate seeding and obligate resprouting. These results highlight the limits to trait co-occurrences across different ecosystems and the difficulty in identifying global-scale relationships amongst traits.}, doi = {10.1093/aob/mcr263}, author = {Vivian, L M and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {BF-2423, title = {Classifying the fire-response traits of plants: How reliable are species-level classifications?}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, volume = {35}, year = {2010}, month = {05/2010}, pages = {264 - 273}, abstract = {Plant species in fire-prone environments possess specific traits which allow them to survive fire. Species are commonly classified according to whether they survive fire and resprout or whether they are killed by fire and regenerate from seed. However, different populations of the same species have been shown to vary in their responses. Therefore, the classification of a species into a single category based on fire-response traits may not necessarily be representative of every population under every circumstance. This study examined the extent of within-species variation in fire-response traits of woody plants in south-eastern Australia after the 2003 fires. Species were then classified using two approaches: (i) using data from a field survey of fire-response traits, taking into account within-species variation; and (ii) using species{\textquoteright} fire responses listed in a pre-existing fire-response database compiled from a variety of primary sources. Field data showed that the majority of species in the study area resprouted after fire with around one in 10 species variable in their resprouting response. Almost half of all species varied from site to site according to whether they regenerated from seed, either solely or in addition to resprouting. The numbers of species classified as resprouters and seed regenerators varied according to the classification method used. Differences were also found between the classification method when calculating the mean proportion of resprouters and seed regenerators across sites. The fire-response traits for some species from the database were found to differ from the observed field responses. This study demonstrated that the application of a fire-response trait, reported in a trait database, to an entire species, may not adequately represent the actual fire responses of the populations of interest. Rather than considering the fire-response traits of a species, accurate prediction may be better achieved by considering how different populations of plants will respond to fire.}, doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2009.02032.x}, author = {Vivian, L M and Doherty , Michael and Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {BF-2252, title = {The effect of fire on birds of mulga woodlandin arid central Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {19}, year = {2010}, month = {2010}, pages = {949}, doi = {10.1071/WF09028}, author = {Adam J. Leavesley and Geoffrey J. Cary and Edwards, Glenn P. and Gill, A. Malcolm} } @article {BF-2398, title = {Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: evidence from five landscape{\textendash}fire{\textendash}succession models}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {18}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, pages = {147}, abstract = {The behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAF{\'E}, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets adjacent to fire-prone landscapes) was quantified for a standardised modelling landscape. Importance was measured as the proportion of variation in area or edge pixels burned explained by each factor and all interactions among them. Weather and ignition management were consistently more important for explaining variation in area burned than fuel management approach and effort, which were found to be statistically unimportant. For the number of edge pixels burned, weather and ignition management were generally more important than fuel management approach and effort. Increased ignition management effort resulted in decreased area burned in all models and decreased number of edge pixels burned in three models. The findings demonstrate that year-to-year variation in weather and the success of ignition management consistently prevail over the effects of fuel management on area burned in a range of modelled ecosystems.}, doi = {10.1071/WF07085}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Flannigan, Mike D. and Robert E. Keane and Ross Bradstock and Davies, Ian D. and Lenihan, James M. and Li, Chao and Logan, Kimberley A. and Parsons, Russell A.} } @article {BF-2392, title = {Influence of fire severity on the regeneration, recruitment and distribution of eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment, Australian Capital Territory}, journal = {Austral Ecology}, volume = {33}, year = {2008}, month = {02/2008}, pages = {55 - 67}, abstract = {Plant responses to fire are variable between and within species and are influenced by numerous factors including fire severity. This study investigated the effects of fire severity on the regeneration and recruitment of forest eucalypts in the Cotter River Catchment, Australian Capital Territory (ACT). This study also examined the potential for the obligate seeder Eucalyptus delegatensis R.T. Baker (Myrtaceae) to expand into adjacent stands dominated by the facultative resprouter Eucalyptus fastigata H. Deane \& Maiden (Myrtaceae) by seed shed and seedling establishment beyond the pre-fire boundary. Sites were located in areas of either higher or lower fire severity, and transects were placed across the boundary of stands of E. delegatensis and E. fastigata. Species distributions, tree survival and seedling densities and heights were recorded, and the location of each boundary was determined as the region of maximum change in species composition along the transects. Eucalyptus delegatensis was the only eucalypt killed by higher severity fire. However, E. delegatensis seedling density was greater at higher severity sites than lower severity sites. Eucalyptus fastigata seedling density was low across all sites, with other eucalypts producing few, if any, seedlings. There was no evidence that E. delegatensis had increased its range into downslope stands dominated by E. fastigata. Patterns of vegetative recovery and seedling recruitment may be related to a number of factors, including differences in allocation patterns between seeders and sprouters, and the effects of overstory and understory competition. It is unclear what processes impede E. delegatensis seedling establishment beyond the stand boundary, but may involve an inability of E. delegatensis to shed seed sufficiently far downslope; unsuitable conditions for germination beyond the boundary; or, competition from a retained or resprouting overstory, despite the potential for increased dispersal distance soon after fire.}, issn = {14429985}, doi = {10.1111/j.1442-9993.2007.01790.x}, author = {Vivian, L M and Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm} } @article {BF-2382, title = {The relative importance of fine-scale fuel mosaics on reducing fire risk in south-west Tasmania, Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {17}, year = {2008}, month = {2008}, pages = {421}, abstract = {In many landscapes, an important fire management objective is to reduce the negative impacts from unplanned fires on people, property and ecological values. In Australia, there exists an inherent assumption that high spatial variability in fire ages and hence fuel loads will have negative effects on both the incidence and spread of subsequent fires, and will enhance ecological values. A recent study using the process-based computer simulation model FIRESCAPE-SWTAS predicted several relationships between prescribed burn treatment levels and spatial patterning and management objectives in south-west Tasmania, Australia. The present study extended this investigation to additionally explore the effects of prescribed burning treatment unit size on unplanned fire incidence and area burned both in the general landscape and specifically in fire-intolerant vegetation. Simulation results suggest that treatment level had the greatest influence on modifying fire effects, whereas treatment unit size had the least effect. The model predicted that all three parameters interacted to determine the mean annual area burnt by unplanned fires. In fire-intolerant vegetation, treatment unit size did not influence the incidence of unplanned fires and the area burnt by unplanned fires in these communities. Where significant differences were evident, fire risk was reduced by higher treatment levels, deterministic spatial patterns of burning units, and smaller burning unit sizes.}, doi = {10.1071/WF07052}, author = {Karen J. King and Ross Bradstock and Geoffrey J. Cary and Chapman, Joanne and Marsden-Smedley, Jon B.} } @article {BF-2330, title = {Comparison of the Sensitivity of Landscape-fire-succession Models to Variation in Terrain, Fuel Pattern, Climate and Weather}, journal = {Landscape Ecology}, volume = {21}, year = {2006}, month = {01/2006}, pages = {121 - 137}, abstract = {The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer \& wetter, and warmer \& drier) and weather (year-to-year variability) was determined for four existing landscape-fire-succession models (EMBYR, FIRESCAPE, LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) and a new model implemented in the LAMOS modelling shell (LAMOS( DS)). Sensitivity was measured as the variance in area burned explained by each of the four factors, and all of the interactions amongst them, in a standard generalised linear modelling analysis. Modelled area burned was most sensitive to climate and variation in weather, with four models sensitive to each of these factors and three models sensitive to their interaction. Models generally exhibited a trend of increasing area burned from observed, through warmer and wetter, to warmer and drier climates with a 23-fold increase in area burned, on average, from the observed to the warmer, drier climate. Area burned was sensitive to terrain for FIRESCAPE and fuel pattern for EMBYR. These results demonstrate that the models are generally more sensitive to variation in climate and weather as compared with terrain complexity and fuel pattern, although the sensitivity to these latter factors in a small number of models demonstrates the importance of representing key processes. The models that represented fire ignition and spread in a relatively}, doi = {10.1007/s10980-005-7302-9}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary and Robert E. Keane and Gardner, Robert H. and Lavorel, S and Flannigan, Mike D. and Davies, Ian D. and Li, Chao and Lenihan, James M. and Rupp, TS and Florent Mouillot} } @article {BF-2335, title = {Simulation of prescribed burning strategies in south-west Tasmania, Australia: effects on unplanned fires, fire regimes, and ecological management values}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {15}, year = {2006}, month = {2006}, pages = {527}, abstract = {Computer simulation modelling provides a useful approach for determining the trade-offs between the extent of prescribed burning and the long-term impacts of unplanned fires on management values. In the present study, FIRESCAPE-SWTAS, a process-based fire regime and vegetation dynamics model, was used in the World Heritage Area of south-west Tasmania, Australia, to investigate the implications of different prescribed burning treatments on identified management objectives. Treatments included annual prescribed burning of different proportions of the most flammable vegetation community, buttongrass moorlands. Additionally, a proposed strategic burning treatment for this landscape was simulated for comparison with these treatments. Simulations identified the nature of the relationships between the prescribed burn treatment level and the fire size distributions, the mean incidence, and the mean annual areas burnt by unplanned fires, with all three parameters declining with increases in treatment level. The study also indicated that strategically located treatment units were able to enhance the reduction in the fire risk to vegetation species susceptible to fire (fire-intolerant species).}, doi = {10.1071/WF05076}, author = {Karen J. King and Geoffrey J. Cary and Ross Bradstock and Chapman, Joanne and Pyrke, Adrian and Marsden-Smedley, Jon B.} } @article {BF-1069, title = {A classification of landscape fire succession models: spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics.}, journal = {Ecological Modelling. }, volume = {179}, number = {1}, year = {2005}, month = {11/15/2004}, pages = {Mar-27}, author = {Robert E. Keane and Geoffrey J. Cary and Davies, Ian D. and Flannigan, Mike D. and Gardner, Robert H. and Lavorel, S and Lenihan, James M. and Li, Chao and Rupp, TS} } @article {BF-1079, title = {Research priorities arising from the 2002/2003 bushfire season in south-eastern Australia. }, journal = {Australian Forestry }, volume = {68}, number = {2}, year = {2005}, pages = {104-111}, author = {Geoffrey J. Cary} } @article {BF-1073, title = {Fire research and policy priorities: insights from the 2003 national fire forum.}, number = {19}, year = {2004}, pages = {76-84}, author = {Dovers, Steve and Geoffrey J. Cary and Lindenmayer, David} }