@article {bnh-3282,
	title = {Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	volume = {139},
	year = {2016},
	month = {11/2016},
	pages = {85-99},
	chapter = {85},
	abstract = {<p><span>Bushfires are one of the most frequent natural hazards experienced in Australia. Fires play an important role in shaping the landscape and its ecological dynamics, but may also have devastating effects that cause human injuries and fatalities, as well as broad-scale environmental damage. While there has been considerable effort to quantify changes in the occurrence of bushfire in Australia, a comprehensive assessment of the most extreme bushfire cases, which exact the greatest economic and environmental impacts, is lacking. In this paper we reflect upon recently developed understanding of bushfire dynamics to consider (i) historical changes in the occurrence of extreme bushfires, and (ii) the potential for increasing frequency in the future under climate change projections. The science of extreme bushfires is still a developing area, thus our conclusions about emerging patterns in their occurrence should be considered tentative. Nonetheless, historical information on noteworthy bushfire events suggests an increased occurrence in recent decades. Based on our best current understanding of how extreme bushfires develop, there is strong potential for them to increase in frequency in the future. As such there is a pressing need for a greater understanding of these powerful and often destructive phenomena.</span></p>},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1811-1},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1811-1},
	author = {Jason J. Sharples and Geoffrey J. Cary and Paul Fox-Hughes and Mooney, Scott and Jason P. Evans and Fletcher, Michael-Shawn and Michael Fromm and Grierson, Pauline and Rick McRae and Baker, Patrick}
}
@article {BF-2411,
	title = {Dendroecological potential of Callitris preissii for dating historical fires in semi-arid shrublands of southern Western Australia},
	journal = {Dendrochronologia},
	volume = {28},
	year = {2010},
	month = {2010},
	pages = {37 - 48},
	abstract = {Historical fire regimes in the semi-arid shrublands of southern Western Australia are poorly understood, largely owing to a lack of quantitative historical data. We sought to determine the dendroecological potential of fire-sensitive Callitris preissii Miq. trees to date historical fires and extend the length of fire-history data available from remotely sensed imagery. We sampled C. preissii trees from known fire areas in the Lake Johnston region in southern Western Australia. Our objective was to assess the capacity to date historical fires using stand establishment date as a proxy measure of time since fire. We measured stem basal diameter and height and collected stem sections of C. preissii trees and saplings from five areas that were burnt on known dates between 1974 and 2001. We also sampled older trees (>35 years), which were used to create a master chronology to assist with dating of seedlings and saplings. Tree age could not be reliably estimated from stem basal diameter and tree height, with 95\% prediction intervals of more than 17 years. However, we were able to successfully determine tree age and develop a ring-width chronology using standard dendrochronological techniques. The cross-dated chronology showed a relatively high inter-series correlation in ring width (r=0.63) indicating consistency in growth rate among samples and sites, while mean sensitivity (0.39) signified high inter-annual variability in ring width. The age structure of C. preissii stands revealed consistent recruitment within 1 year of fire occurrence and maximum intra-stand variation in tree age of 4 years. Our results confirm that C. preissii has significant dendroecological potential to accurately date past fire events and that this approach will assist in extending fire-history records beyond recent decades for much of southern semi-arid Australia.},
	doi = {10.1016/j.dendro.2009.01.002},
	author = {O{\textquoteright}Donnell, Alison J. and Cullen, Louise E. and Lachlan W. McCaw and Matthias M. Boer and Grierson, Pauline}
}
@article {BF-2416,
	title = {Deriving state-and-transition models from an image series of grassland pattern dynamics},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling},
	volume = {221},
	year = {2010},
	month = {02/2010},
	pages = {433 - 444},
	abstract = {We present how state-and-transition models (STMs) may be derived from image data, providing a graphical means of understanding how ecological dynamics are driven by complex interactions among ecosystem events. A temporal sequence of imagery of fine scale vegetation patterning was acquired from close range photogrammetry (CRP) of 1 m quadrats, in a long term monitoring project of Themeda triandra (Forsskal) grasslands in north western Australia. A principal components scaling of image metrics calculated on the imagery defined the state space of the STM, and thereby characterised the different patterns found in the imagery. Using the state space, we were able to relate key events (i.e. fire and rainfall) to both the image data and aboveground biomass, and identified distinct ecological {\textquoteleft}phases{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}transitions{\textquoteright} of the system. The methodology objectively constructs a STM from imagery and, in principle, may be applied to any temporal sequence of imagery captured in any event-driven system. Our approach, by integrating image data, addresses the labour constraint limiting the extensive use of STMs in managing vegetation change in arid and semiarid rangelands.},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.027},
	author = {Sadler, Rohan J. and Hazelton, Martin and Matthias M. Boer and Grierson, Pauline}
}
@article {BF-2467,
	title = {Vegetation and landscape connectivity control wildfire intervals in unmanaged semi-arid shrublands and woodlands in Australia},
	journal = {Journal of Biogeography},
	volume = {38},
	year = {2010},
	month = {01/2011},
	pages = {112 - 124},
	abstract = {Aim  The aim of this study was to determine how spatial variation in vegetation type and landscape connectivity influence fire intervals in a semi-arid landscape with low relief and complex mosaics of woodland and shrubland vegetation.

Location  Our study focused on a 15,500-km2 area of relatively undisturbed and unmanaged land in south-western Australia, referred to as the Lake Johnston region.

Methods  We modelled fire-interval data from a 67-year (1940{\textendash}2006) digital fire history database using a two-parameter Weibull function, and tested for the effects of vegetation type and landscape connectivity on estimates of the length of fire intervals (Weibull parameter b) and the dependence of fire intervals on fuel age (Weibull parameter c).

Results  Vegetation type and landscape connectivity significantly influenced fire interval probability distributions. Fire intervals in shrublands (dense low shrub assemblage) were typically shorter (b = 46 years) and more dependent on fuel age (c = 2.33) than most other vegetation types, while fire intervals in open eucalypt woodlands were much longer (b = 405 years) and were less dependent on fuel age (c = 1.36) than in shrub-dominated vegetation types. Areas adjacent to or surrounded by salt lakes burnt less frequently (b = 319 years) and fire intervals were less dependent on fuel age (c = 1.48) compared with more exposed areas (e.g. b < 101 years, c > 1.68). Fire intervals in thickets (dense tall shrub assemblage) were longer (b = 101 years) than would be expected from fuel loads, most likely because they were protected from fire by surrounding fuel-limited woodlands.

Main conclusions  Fire intervals in south-western Australia are strongly influenced by spatial variation in vegetation (fuel structure) and landscape connectivity. The importance of fuel structure as a control of fire intervals in south-western Australia contrasts with other landscapes, where topographical gradients or climatic influences may override the effects of underlying vegetation. We found that, regardless of low relief, topographical features such as large salt lake systems limited the connectivity and spread of fire among landscape units in an analogous manner to lakes or mountainous features elsewhere.},
	issn = {03050270},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02381.x},
	author = {O{\textquoteright}Donnell, Alison J. and Matthias M. Boer and Lachlan W. McCaw and Grierson, Pauline}
}
@article {BF-2412,
	title = {Impacts of increased fire frequency and aridity on eucalypt forest structure, biomass and composition in southwest Australia},
	journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
	volume = {258},
	year = {2009},
	month = {10/2009},
	pages = {2136 - 2142},
	abstract = {Water stress and fire disturbance can directly impact stand structure, biomass and composition by causing mortality and influencing competitive interactions among trees. However, open eucalypt forests of southwest Australia are highly resilient to fire and drought and may respond differently to increased fire frequency and aridity than forests dominated by non-eucalypt species. We measured the variation in stem density, basal area, stand biomass, sapwood area, leaf area and litterfall across 16 mixed jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) and marri (Corymbia calophylla) forest stands along an aridity gradient in southwest Australia that had variable fire histories. Fire frequency was defined as the total number of fires over a not, vert, similar30-year period and aridity as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration to annual precipitation. Total stand biomass and sapwood area were predicted from diameter at breast height of individual jarrah and marri trees using allometric equations. Leaf area was estimated using digital cover photography. More arid and frequently burnt stands had higher stem density, especially of smaller trees, which were mainly jarrah. Overall, both standing biomass and leaf area decreased at more arid sites, while sapwood area was largely unaffected by aridity, suggesting that these stands respond to increased water limitation by decreasing their leaf area relative to their sapwood area. Biomass of marri was reduced at more arid and, to a lesser extent, at more frequently burnt stands. However, total stand biomass (jarrah and marri) and leaf area index did not vary with fire frequency, suggesting that less marri biomass (due to slower growth rates, higher mortality or less recruitment) was compensated by an increase in the density of jarrah trees (regeneration). We conclude that increased fire and drought shift tree species composition towards more fire-resistant species and result in denser stands of smaller trees. In contrast, total stand biomass declines with increasing aridity, but has no association with fire frequency.},
	doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2009.08.013},
	author = {Pekin, BK and Matthias M. Boer and Macfarlane, C and Grierson, Pauline}
}
@article {BF-2396,
	title = {Long-term impacts of prescribed burning on regional extent and incidence of wildfires{\textemdash}Evidence from 50 years of active fire management in SW Australian forests},
	journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
	volume = {259},
	year = {2009},
	month = {12/2009},
	pages = {132 - 142},
	abstract = {Prescribed burning is advocated for the sustainable management of fire-prone ecosystems for its capacity to reduce fuel loads and mitigate large high-intensity wildfires. However, there is a lack of comprehensive field evidence on which to base predictions of the benefits of prescribed burning for meeting either wildfire hazard reduction or conservation goals. Australian eucalypt forests are among the very few forest types in the world where prescribed burning has been practised long enough and at a large enough spatial scale to quantify its effect on the incidence and extent of unplanned fires. Nevertheless even for Australian forests evidence of the effectiveness of prescribed burning remains fragmented and largely unpublished in the scientific literature.

We analysed a 52-year fire history from a eucalypt forest region in south-western Australia to quantify the impact of prescribed burning on the incidence, extent and size distribution of wildfires. Quantile regression identified the longevity of the influence of prescribed fire treatments on wildfire incidence and extent. Anomalies in the frequency-size distribution of unplanned fires were identified through a relative risk mapping using kernel density estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of fuel age were quantified using patch metrics, while generalized additive models were applied to estimate effects of fuel age patterns on the incidence and extent of unplanned fire.

Prescribed burning has pronouncedly changed the spatial distribution of fuel age in the study area and has significantly reduced the incidence and extent of unplanned fires. This effect on both the incidence and extent of unplanned fires was minimal for time lags greater than 6 years between fuel treatment and response. When averaged over 6-year periods, the annual extent of prescribed burning explained 24\% and 71\% of the variation in the mean annual number and extent of unplanned fires, respectively. The incidence of large unplanned fires was significantly less than the long-term average for the region when the annual extent of prescribed fire was at a maximum and significantly more when the annual extent of prescribed fire was at a minimum. Since the 1960s, the length of time sites remain unburned by wildfire has approximately doubled to not, vert, similar9 years. We found that each unit area reduction in unplanned fire required about four units of prescription fire. These findings concur with the observations of experienced field practitioners who identify the 6-year mark as effective at reducing wildfire hazard. Our findings provide strong empirical evidence of the effectiveness of prescribed burning for mitigating wildfire hazard in SW Australian forests. Ongoing research and development is needed to implement managed fire regimes that integrate wildfire mitigation with conservation of biodiversity and other environmental values.},
	doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2009.10.005},
	author = {Matthias M. Boer and Sadler, Rohan J. and Wittkuhn, Roy and Lachlan W. McCaw and Grierson, Pauline}
}
@article {BF-1154,
	title = {Impact of Ecosystem Management on Microbial Community Level Physiological Profiles of Postmining Forest Rehabilitation},
	volume = {55},
	number = {2},
	year = {2008},
	note = {11 pgs},
	author = {Cookson, WR and O{\textquoteright}Donnell, Alison J. and Grant, CD and Grierson, Pauline and Murphy, DV}
}
@article {BF-2376,
	title = {Mapping burned areas and burn severity patterns in SW Australian eucalypt forest using remotely-sensed changes in leaf area index},
	journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
	volume = {112},
	year = {2008},
	month = {12/2008},
	pages = {4358 - 4369},
	abstract = {Remote sensing is the most practical method available to managers of fire-prone forests for quantifying and mapping fire impacts. Differenced Normalised Burn Ratio (ΔNBR) is among the most widely used spectral indices for the mapping of burn severity but is difficult to interpret in terms of fire-related changes in key biophysical attributes and processes. We propose to quantify burn severity as a change in the leaf area index (ΔLAI) of a stand. LAI is a key biophysical attribute of forests, and is central to understanding their water and carbon cycles. Previous studies have suggested that changes in canopy LAI may be a major contributor to ΔNBR and to the composite burn index (CBI) that is frequently used in combination with the NBR to assess burn severity on the ground. We applied remotely-sensed ΔLAI to map burn severity in jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest in south-western Australia burnt during the January 2005 Perth Hills wildfires. Ground-based digital photography was used to measure LAI in typical stands representing the full range of canopy densities present in the study area as well as variation in the time since the last fire. Regression models for the prediction of LAI were developed using NBR, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or the Simple Ratio (SR) as the independent variable. All three LAI models had equally high coefficients of determination (R2: 0.87) and small root mean squared errors (RMSE: 0.27{\textendash}0.28). ΔLAI was calculated as the difference between pre- and post-fire LAI, predicted using imagery from January 2004 and February 2005, respectively. The area affected by the January 2005 fire and the burn severity patterns within that area were mapped using ΔLAI and ΔNBR. Landscape patterns of burn severity obtained from differencing pre- and post-fire LAI were similar to those mapped by ΔNBR. We conclude that fire-affected areas and burn severity patterns in the northern jarrah forest can be objectively mapped using remotely-sensed changes in LAI, while offering the important advantage over NBR of being readily interpretable in the wider context of ecological forest management.},
	doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2008.08.005},
	author = {Matthias M. Boer and Macfarlane, C and Jaymie Norris and Sadler, Rohan J. and Wallace, J and Grierson, Pauline}
}
@article {BF-2377,
	title = {Spatial scale invariance of southern Australian forest fires mirrors the scaling behaviour of fire-driving weather events},
	journal = {Landscape Ecology},
	year = {2008},
	abstract = {Power law frequency-size distributions of forest fires have been observed in a range of environments. The scaling behaviour of fires, and more generally of landscape patterns related to recurring disturbance and recovery, have previously been explained in the frameworks of self-organized criticality (SOC) and highly optimized tolerance (HOT). In these frameworks the scaling behaviour of the fires is the global structure that either emerges spontaneously from locally operating processes (SOC) or is the product of a tuning process aimed at optimizing the trade-offs between system yield and tolerance to risks (HOT). Here, we argue that the dominant role of self-organized or optimised fuel patterns in constraining unplanned-fire sizes, implicit in the SOC and HOT frameworks, fails to recognise the strong exogenous controls of fire spread (i.e. by weather, terrain, and suppression) observed in many fire-prone landscapes. Using data from southern Australia we demonstrate that forest fire areas and the magnitudes of corresponding weather events have distributions with closely matching scaling exponents. We conclude that the spatial scale invariance of forest fires may also be a mapping of the meteorological forcing pattern. },
	doi = {10.1007/s10980-008-9260-5},
	author = {Matthias M. Boer and Sadler, Rohan J. and Ross Bradstock and Gill, A. Malcolm and Grierson, Pauline}
}
@proceedings {BF-2993,
	title = {Fitting Ecological Knowledge to Remotely Sensed Long-term Monitoring Data: A framework from semi-arid grasslands of the Pilbara region of north-western Australia},
	year = {2005},
	month = {August 2005},
	publisher = {Ecological Society of America},
	address = {USA, United States of America },
	keywords = {long-term monitoring, model fitting, remotely sensed data, vegetation dynamics},
	url = {http://abstracts.co.allenpress.com/pweb/esa2005/document/47881},
	author = {Sadler, Rohan J. and Hazelton, Martin and Grierson, Pauline}
}
@proceedings {BF-2992,
	title = {Self-organization of Fire-prone Landscape Systems: Concepts, models and field evidence},
	year = {2005},
	month = {August 2005},
	publisher = {Ecological Society of America},
	address = {USA, United States of America },
	keywords = {Australia, Self-organization, spatial patterns, wildland fire},
	url = {http://abstracts.co.allenpress.com/pweb/esa2005/document/48216},
	author = {Matthias M. Boer and Grierson, Pauline}
}
