@article {bnh-2920, title = {Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling: Annual project report 2015-2016}, number = {179}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The goal of the project is to improve understanding of fire and atmosphere interactions and feedback processes by running a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation model. Planned outcomes of the project include: preparation of meteorological and simulation case studies of significant fire events, installation and testing of a coupled model on the national computing infrastructure and preparation of training material to support operational implementation of research findings.\ Weather forecasting and fire prediction are similar in that skilled practitioners of both rely on a combination of detailed scientific knowledge and objective analysis, juxtaposed with pattern recognition that draws on past experience and a mental inventory of previous events. By preparing detailed case studies and coupled simulations of events in which unexpected or unusual fire-atmosphere interactions occurred, we contribute to both the scientific understanding for fire{\textendash}atmosphere interactions and the knowledge base of operational meteorologists and fire analysts.

The project has been staffed for just four months, and is commencing work on two main fronts. The first of these is implementing the coupled model ACCESS-Fire (ACCESS is the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator). We have obtained the source code from Monash University and are preparing for installation and testing. Progress has been slowed a little by a major change in the ACCESS model infrastructure, which has mean that some necessary components for very high resolution simulation are not yet available. We attended an ACCESS training workshop to ensure that we have the necessary skills to properly run the model.

After extensive consultation with end users, we have identified the Waroona fire in Western Australia (WA) in January 2016 as our first case study. This was a significant and complex event, with the impacts including the destruction of the town of Yarloop. We have made good progress on collecting and analysing data and preparing an initial draft report that describes the meteorology and fire activity during the first two days of this event, in collaboration with Western Australian fire scientists. We have also prepared an initial simulation of the event, without fire coupling

}, issn = {179}, author = {Jeffrey Kepert and Mika Peace} }