Published works

Published works

Improved decision support for natural hazard risk reduction: annual project report 2016-17

TitleImproved decision support for natural hazard risk reduction: annual project report 2016-17
Publication TypeReport
Year of Publication2017
AuthorsMaier, H, van Delden, H, Riddell, G, Newman, J, Zecchin, A, Dandy, G, Newland, C
Document Number321
Date Published09/2017
InstitutionBushfire and Natural Hazards CRC
Report Number321

Decision support systems that contain integrated models for the assessment of natural hazard mitigation options are an important component for robust, transparent, and long-term mitigation planning. Integrated modelling of underlying social, environmental, and economic systems is required to take into account system dynamics, and to explore the implications of future changes, such as changes in demographics, land use, economics and climate. Consequently, a generic decision support system for the long-term planning for natural disaster risk reduction is being developed as part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. 

The project consists of implementing an iterative development and use cycle across three different case studies. This development aspect of this cycle focuses on creating a generic framework for the integration of models to answer policy relevant questions, in this case for improved understanding and reduction of disaster risk. The use process tailors this framework to each of the case study regions, Greater Adelaide, Greater & Peri-Urban Melbourne and Tasmania. 

The focus of 2016-2017 has been on the completion of the first development cycle for Greater Adelaide, with the prototype software to be delivered to end user organisations shortly. Training was also provided to users within the South Australian government and on-going support will be provided to this user group to enable uptake and use within respective departments. 

Work has also continued on the Greater & Peri-urban Melbourne case study with significant process in the data collection and application of the DSS system to the region. Coupled with this has also been the use process of scenario development, with four scenarios for the region currently in draft form prior to follow up sessions in 17-18 to finalise the drafts, quantitatively model the scenarios and look to integrate the exploration of plausible futures to strategy development into organisations.

Similar progress in Tasmania has also been made with the land use model application completed and data collection for the hazard, and exposure modelling ongoing for completion of the first iteration of DSS development by the end of 2017. The participatory use process also saw multiple workshops take place in Tasmania throughout 16/17. These were centred on exploring uncertainties for change in the state, along with collecting data for multiple criteria analysis of risk reduction options, and defining optimisation questions for future analysis.

Other efforts have gone into the publication of journal papers, analysing the current state of literature in the field of decision support for risk reduction planning, and the calibration of land use modelling. Significant effort has also been placed into utilisation activities and exploring future application regions, resulting in a successful NDRP project proposal to apply the DSS in Western Australia. 

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