|Title||Natural hazard mitigation decision support system: Annual project report 2014-2015|
|Year of Publication||2015|
|Authors||Maier, H, van Delden, H, Newman, J, Zecchin, A, Dandy, G, Riddell, G, Newland, C, O'Flaherty, M|
|Institution||Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC|
Decision support systems (DSS) that contain integrated models for the assessment of natural hazard mitigation options are an important component for robust, transparent, and long-term mitigation planning. Integrated modelling of underlying social, environmental, and economic systems is required to take into account system dynamics, and to explore the implications of future changes, such as changes in demographics, land use and climate. Consequently, a generic decision support system for the long-term planning of natural disaster impact mitigation options is being developed as part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.
Throughout 2014-2015, the project team has focussed on the production of a framework for the ‘development’ and ‘use’ of the DSS. The ‘development’ aspects propose a generic framework for the integration of models to bridge the science-policy gap through a collaboration between scientists, end users and IT specialists. The ‘use’ process focusses on the application of the generic DSS to a region of interest; in this project three case study locations are considered including Greater Adelaide, Greater Melbourne and Tasmania. This involves collaboration between modellers, stakeholders and facilitators to customise, calibrate and validate the case-study specific integrated models. Subsequently, the integrated model is used to support a Storyline and Simulation (SAS) approach that attempts to develop scenarios through a participatory process, wherein the DSS helps build and assess these scenarios through an iterative process.
Additional to the production of this overarching framework has been specific model development to ensure appropriate models are available to consider hazard risk within the integrated DSS. Risk models for flooding, coastal inundation and bushfire have been conceptually developed and will be applied to each case study as appropriate. Each model focuses on changing risk spatially and temporally.
The Greater Adelaide DSS is the first case study application of the generic framework, which began with an extensive intial stakeholder engagement phase in September 2014. This involved identification of key stakeholders, questionnaries, interviews and a whole-day workshop at the University of Adelaide on the 18th of September. From there, critical external drivers and uncertainties were identified, along with aspects of risk and indicators of hazard impact and mitigation performance. These factors have subsequently been incorporated within the DSS for Greater Adelaide and a proto-type DSS will be completed in time for further stakeholder engagement around scenario development and DSS use in October/November 2015.
Greater Melbourne and Tasmania have also begun to progress as case studies. Key contacts have been developed in each location, and with the assistance of these contacts, data and model availability have been discussed for each location, along with identification of stakeholders relevant for each location. The first stage of stakeholder engagement for these case studies, as described for Greater Adelaide, will occur in October/November 2015.