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While a number of advances have been made in understanding bushfire development under extreme conditions, these have not been quantified in a manner that is suitable for inclusion in fire behaviour modelling framework. One of the main aims of this project is to develop statistical models that allow for the inclusion of dynamic effects when they are important – that is, when fires grow sufficiently large and complex.
Year Type Citation
2016 Journal Article Wilkinson, C., Eriksen, C. & Penman, T. D. Into the firing line: civilian ingress during the 2013 “Red October” bushfires, Australia. Natural Hazards 80, 521-538 (2016).
2016 Journal Article Driscoll, D. A. et al. Resolving future fire management conflicts using multi-criteria decision making. Conservation Biology 30, 196-205 (2016).
2016 Report Duff, T. J., Penman, T. D. & Filkov, A. Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour: Annual project report 2015-2016. (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2016).
2015 Report Duff, T. J. & Penman, T. D. Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour: Annual project report 2014-2015. (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2015).
2015 Report Penman, T. D., Parkins, K. A., Mascaro, S., Chong, D. & Bradstock, R. A. National Fire Danger Rating System Probabalistic Framework: year three report. (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, 2015).
2015 Journal Article Price, O. F., Penman, T. D., Bradstock, R. A., Boer, M. M. & Clarke, H. Biogeographical variation in the potential effectiveness of prescribed fire in south-eastern Australia. Journal of Biogeography 42, 2234-2245 (2015).
2015 Presentation Duff, T. J. & Penman, T. D. Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour. (2015).
2014 Report Horsey, B. & Penman, T. D. Community Understanding and Awareness of Bushfire Safety: October 2013 Bushfires - Part 2. (2014).
2014 Report Wright, L., McLennan, J., Birch, A., Horsey, B. & Penman, T. D. Community Understanding and Awareness of Bushfire Safety: October 2013 Bushfires - Overview. (2014).
2014 Report Penman, T. D., Bedward, M. & Bradstock, R. A. National Fire Danger Rating System Probabalistic Framework: year two report. (2014).
2013 Journal Article Morris, R. et al. Environmental assessment of erosion following prescribed burning in the Mount Lofty Ranges, Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire (2013). doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13011
2011 Journal Article Penman, T. D. et al. Prescribed burning: how can it work to conserve the things we value?. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20, 721 (2011).
2010 Journal Article Penman, T. D. & York, A. Climate and recent fire history affect fuel loads in Eucalyptus forests: Implications for fire management in a changing climate. Forest Ecology and Management 260, 1791 - 1797 (2010).
2009 Journal Article Penman, T. D., Binns, D. L. & Kavanagh, R. P. Patch-Occupancy Modeling as a Method for Monitoring Changes in Forest Floristics: a Case Study in Southeastern Australia. Conservation Biology 23, 740 - 749 (2009).
2009 Journal Article Penman, T. D., Binns, D. L. & Kavanagh, R. P. Quantifying successional changes in response to forest disturbances. Applied Vegetation Science 11, 261 - 268 (2009).
2008 Journal Article Penman, T. D., Binns, D. L., Shiels, R. J., Allen, R. M. & Plummer, H. Germination responses of a dry sclerophyll forest soil stored seed bank to fire related cues. Cunninghamia 547-555 (2008). at <http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/research/areas/fre/scientific-outputs/2008/1386>
2008 Journal Article Penman, T. D., Binns, D. L., Shiels, R. J., Allen, R. M. & Kavanagh, R. P. Changes in understorey plant species richness following logging and prescribed burning in shrubby dry sclerophyll forests of south-eastern Australia. Austral Ecology 33, 197 - 210 (2008).
2008 Journal Article Penman, T. D. & Towerton, A. L. Soil temperatures during autumn prescribed burning: implications for the germination of fire responsive species?. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 572 (2008).
2007 Journal Article Penman, T. D., Kavanagh, R. P., Binns, D. L. & Melick, D. R. Patchiness of prescribed burns in dry sclerophyll eucalypt forests in South-eastern Australia. Forest Ecology and Management 252, 24 - 32 (2007).
2007 Journal Article Penman, T. D., Binns, D. L. & Plummer, H. The influence of prescribed burning on fruit production in Proteaceae. Cunninghamia (2007).

Posters credited

Delivering Effective Prescribed Burning Across Southern Australia


Although many jurisdictions are committed to prescribed burning, we do not understand its effects on risks to people, property and environmental values across Australia.

Trent Penman Conference Poster 2016


The bushfire behaviour and management group of the University of Melbourne is conducting a project to identify the thresholds beyond which dynamic fire behaviour becomes a dominant factor and determine the combination of conditions for such behaviours to occur.

Key Topics:
Ross Bradstock Conference Poster 2016


This project will deliver a prescribed burning atlas to guide implementation of ‘tailor-made’ prescribed burning strategies to suit the biophysical, climatic and human context of all bioregions across southern Australia

Key Topics:
Trent Penman Conference Poster 2016


Bushfire management involves making decisions about complex issues that involve people, communities, stakeholders and organisations with many different perceptions and objectives.

All the resources from our 2016 conference

Research program in detail

Where, why and how are Australians dying in floods?

2015-2016 year in review

Bushfire planning with kids ebook