Next generation fire modelling

HazardNOTES

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Tostaree fire, Victoria, February 2011. Photo: Gail Wright, DELWP.
Tostaree fire, Victoria, February 2011. Photo: Gail Wright, DELWP.

Taking a long-term view towards developing more sophisticated fire behaviour models, Hazard Note 21 gives an overview of the Next generation fire modelling cluster of research projects. This research is helping to bridge the gap between fire danger prediction systems based on the science of the 1950s and 1960s and those that exploit current research and technology. A better understanding and modelling of extreme fire behaviour will lead to greater precision in predicting the size and speed of bushfires, enabling fire agencies to better target their warnings, helping to save lives. This cluster has four linked studies:

  • Fire spread prediction across fuel types
  • Fire coalescence and mass spotfire dynamics
  • Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling
  • Determining threshold conditions for extreme fire behaviour

These projects are contributing to the science that will underpin national bushfire predictive services into the future.

In addition to the Hazard Note, the two short videos below feature end-user Dr Simon Heemstra of the NSW Rural Fire Service explaining how the research will benefit fire agencies, while A/Prof Jason Sharples outlines the Fire coalescence and mass spotfire dynamics study, which incorporates spotfires, bushfire development and bushfire modelling.

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